Impact: Moss and D. Jax dealt
The first day of the NFL Draft was only a warm up. The real fireworks started Sunday morning with the football world still shaking off the cobwebs from the longest day in draft history.
Randy Moss is now a New England Patriot and Darrell Jackson is a San Francisco 49er. The going rate for number one receivers, is now apparently only a fourth-round draft pick. Let's break down the fantasy impact.
Moss was one of the hardest players in fantasy football to evaluate before this deal. Only 30, his Hall of Fame talent couldn't possibly have vanished. His motivation, however, appeared to slowly wane over the past three seasons and he clearly wanted out of Oakland.
He's a much safer bet in New England. Moss wanted to play for the Patriots badly enough that he reportedly will sign reduced contract. He will be on his best behavior, at least for a season, because he knows that any controversy will lead to a quick release.
Don't expect Moss to start posting dominant top-five fantasy receiver numbers like he did in Minnesota. The Patriots have too many weapons at receiver, tight end, and running back for Moss to dominate Tom Brady's attention like he did Daunte Culpepper. The Patriots offense is built on spreading the ball around and changing the game plan based on the opponent. There will be weeks where Moss is relatively quiet, and that will keep him out of the top ten fantasy wideouts – just not too far.
Moss has never played for a quarterback as good as Tom Brady. He has never played for a coach that can maximize his strengths and effort. We project a career revival season over 1,100 yards and eight touchdowns, making Moss an excellent risk-reward WR2 in fantasy leagues.
Moss' presence makes Brady a safer pick as a top-five quarterback. Brady was able to throw 24 touchdowns with Jabar Gaffney and Reche Caldwell starting at wideout, and his ceiling is much higher with Moss, Donte' Stallworth, and Wes Welker in the mix. Moss' arrival limits the value of the other New England receivers, though, including tight end Ben Watson. Caldwell and second-year pro Chad Jackson may struggle to get on the field, and the Patriots receivers figure to be highly unpredictable on a week-to-week basis.
Buried beneath the Moss headlines was a trade that will have a similar impact in fantasy leagues. The Seahawks thought so little of Darrell Jackson that they were willing to dump him for a fourth-round pick, and to a division rival. Jackson's injury troubles (nine missed games in two years), drops, and contract squabbling led to his dismissal.
The Seahawks also boast one of the deepest receiving groups in the league. Jackson's departure should open up a starting job for D.J. Hackett, one of the most sure-handed receivers in football the last two years. Hackett should start opposite Deion Branch and will be a great fantasy sleeper in a receiver-friendly offense. Bobby Engram and Nate Burleson still provide excellent depth off the bench.
Look for Jackson's numbers to a take a hit moving to San Francisco. Their passing offense is still unproven and Alex Smith is a downgrade from Matt Hasselbeck. His numbers in Seattle may largely have been a product of Mike Holmgren's system. He won't get as many open passes to drop.
Working in Jackson's favor is that he will instantly be Alex Smith's top option in a much-improved receiving group. Arnaz Battle is a workmanlike slot receiver, Ashley Lelie is a one-dimensional deep threat, and rookie Jason Hill will take time to develop. Tight end Vernon Davis may wind up being San Francisco's true number two receiver.
We suspect Jackson will be overvalued this season in fantasy drafts. His durability concerns and the transition to a new offense make him a boom-or-bust pick as a top-20 receiver. That's probably where he will get drafted; just let someone else do it.