Draft scenario (1 Viewer)

[joffer]

This seems to be a recurring theme in a lot of my drafts, so i figured i'd solicit some opinions. Here's the scenario:

Lets say you're drafting 8th in a 12 team serpentine. You grabbed your RB in the first round, and you're up again at 2.05. You don't like what's left at RB, but your WR2 and WR3 are staring you in the face, and you're convinced of taking a WR. You've got them projected for:

WR2 - 200 points, ADP of 3.06

WR3 - 195 points, ADP of 2.06

WR2 is a guy that you are much higher on then the consensus. WR3 you've got slotted right about where everyone else does.

Do you take WR2 and make sure you get "your guy", or do you try to shoot the moon, take WR3 now and take a shot that WR2 makes it back to your 3.08 pick?

What are the variables that might sway your decision?

- point differential between WR2 and WR3? What if it's 1 point? 20 points?

- ADP of WR2 (this seems to be the most important to me). does your decision hinge on whether his ADP is just before or just after your 3rd round pick? (betting on a >50% or <50% chance that he's still there

This seems to come up a lot with me, and i usually go for the home run and try to land both players. Majority of the time I just miss on WR2, and I'm kicking myself at the end of the year for not trusting my instincts and making sure i got the guy i was really wanted. Best example was WCOFF 05 and the receiver i decided to wait on was Steve Smith missed by one pick.

discuss.

 

[Jayrod]

I'm facing the same delimma in one of my leagues.

I have pick #9 and #11 of an initial 10 team dynasty. I'm very high on a certain player that I'm sure will fall to me and I don't think the guy in spot 10 will take him, so I might take someone else who I like, but think he'll take.....but if he takes the guy I'm targeting, I'm going to be kicking myself.

That said, I think you go for the homerun (I probably will). If you can land them both, and you are right about them both then we are talking championship. If you just get the guy you want, and had to reach well above ADP to get him, then you have minimized your potential advantage.

Also, I think the earlier in the draft (rounds 1-4), it is a better idea to wait because the dropoff from round to round is greater. Later in the draft go ahead and reach for the guy you want because you won't be giving up as much for the guy you think will be worth it and losing them will probably hurt more than it would with the earlier rounds.......if that makes any sense.

 

[gump]

Same boat here...Wayne is my #2 with TO as my #3.

I've decided to take TO in the 2nd and hope Wayne falls. The mocks I have done where this actually happened have been easily my best. When it doesn't happen, the team still looks the same as if I would have taken Wayne in the 2nd.

It's a risk worth taking, IMO.

 

[crimsonrebel]

its only 5 points. go for the sure thing and hope for the best

 

[joffer]

its only 5 points. go for the sure thing and hope for the best

by "go for the sure thing", you're suggesting take my WR2, right? The problem is the difference isn't only 5 points. you're giving up the chance to get WR2 and WR3 for the sure thing of WR2 and say, WR11.

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

In cases like this, you have to ask yourself "If I got player A but not player B, how would I feel about my team?" Then ask yourself the same thing the other way around. Take the player that makes you feel better about your team, and forget all the other stuff.

 

[joffer]

In cases like this, you have to ask yourself "If I got player A but not player B, how would I feel about my team?" Then ask yourself the same thing the other way around. Take the player that makes you feel better about your team, and forget all the other stuff.

i guess i'm always thinking about this pick plus the next. Would i feel better with A+B or A+C?to me, the potential reward of getting two elite players usually wins out over making sure i get "my guy" plus whoever is left next round