Draft Shmaft (1 Viewer)

[tytyty]

Let me pose a question that inherintly doesnt have a black and white answer but opinions may shed light on it.

Here are a couple of examples of what I am talking about.

The year Trent Green got hurt in pre season with the Rams I had the very last pick of the draft. Yeah I took the guy who was going to start the season for the Rams. A guy named Warner. It took me until week 5 to start him because I thought this could not last.

Other guys more on the topic of non drafted players who turn out to be studs. Colston two years ago. Maybe Grant last year. Derrick Andeson last year. Every year has these guys.

Two reasons I never pick them up on time and my league doesnt even have waiver wire.!! First come first serve!! First reason is I am a jew and the transaction cost $2. More to the point I want to wait to see if he is pretender or a contender. Someone always picks the guy up and then I just pray for the pretender scenario. Also, these guys are usually in the early part of the season and giving up an Eddie Kennison(at that time) that I drafted late and thought would be steady prevented me from taking a chance on Colston.

Now to the question that again has no solid answer but curious to hear thoughts. How do you judge a break out player to deem if it is a one or two week fluke or is the real deal? The guy David and Joe didn't even know existed in August. What are factors you look at to see if they have staying power?

 

[Redhot Poker]

The draft is important, but pick ups ARE the key. You can prepare yourself for a solid draft, but you cannot prepare yourself for the inevitable unlucky injuries and underperforming players during the season. Particularly so in IDP leagues. You have to be willing to churn the roster a little and take flyers on players who (1) put up unexpectedly good numbers over a couple of weeks; and/or (2) find themselves in an unexpectedly good situation (injury replacements for injured studs). I've looked back after several successful seasons and was surprised at how much my roster had evolved during the year and how few of the players that I'd drafted were in my lineup at year end. In our league, players who spend and churn, looking to mine nuggets or make even smaller incremental improvements, tend to succeed. Those who stand pat tend to flounder.

 

[BrutalPenguin]

Yes, pickups are key, especially in a league that is trade-averse, and you are penalized for winning games when it comes to the waiver wire. My league goes last-to-first in picking up free agents and it has killed me when, after a solid draft and a great start, I have no chance at the break out players off the waiver wire. I am semi-seriously considering starting my backups week 1 to give me a shot at the break outs in weeks 1-4. Thoughts?

ETA- rather than going with backups, maybe targetting Brandon Marshall / Steve Smith for value can also give me a shot at the wire, while having great ppg scorers down the stretch.

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

I am a jew and the transaction cost $2.

Get bent.

 

[tytyty]

I am a jew and the transaction cost $2.

Get bent.

I really am. Just poking fun at myself. Easy big fella

 

[TLEF316]

a great draft assures you of being competitive, but a smart pickup will win you titles.

 

[tytyty]

No doubt, but how do you (well you dont but what signs are there) if the guy is one hit wonder or for real!

 

[BigRed]

a great draft assures you of being competitive, but a smart pickup will win you titles.

This also just in, water is wet. Getting back to the question: I look at things like is he a rookie or a proven vet, also has he been a starter in the past w/success of some degree, what opportunity for him to get touches in the future do I consider realistic, etc.

 

[FFdork]

To answer to OP question, there is no way to know for sure if a guy is the real deal or not after one week. All you can do is do your research (e.g. Grant wasn't a huge surprise last year because there were reasons to be excited about the GB RB if someone took hold of the job) and go on your gut. If you're being cheap about $2 and the rest of your league has no problem with paying, you're not going to get valuable free agents and you're going to win less.

This is maybe just tangentially related to the question, but I switched my league from a traditional WW to a blind bidding system for FA. The reason was that doing no draft prep, starting off 0-2, getting waiver priority and scooping up the promising free agents had become a legit strategy.

Another solution is to have a deep draft so that less of those guys are out there.

You could also raise the fee for free agents to the point where people don't just take a stab at every guy that puts up a big week.

 

[TLEF316]

No doubt, but how do you (well you dont but what signs are there) if the guy is one hit wonder or for real!

my league is like yours (No WW. its first come-first serve, which i hate)You pick the guy up. No questions asked. We have 20 man rosters, but i never have any hesitation dropping my 20th man for the 1 week wonder. The upside is too great.

 

[Moe Green]

Work the waiver wire like a mutha and you'll give yourself a better chance against your competitors.