Draft Strategy for Dynasty Startups (1 Viewer)

[The Real Hipster Doofus]

Someone in my start up draft last year took Ray Rice, McCoy and Foster looks like he is set for a very long time at RB.

Really you never know how things are going to turn out. There is no right or wrong strategy.

Would I have loved to have been the guy who took McCoy and Foster at picks 28 and 72 ? Sure I would have.

I passed actually on all 3 of those players several times. Looking back it hurts. Just like the day I trade Charles for Boldin in 2009.

I took Marshall really high how is that working out ? Not so good. You just never know.

There is no right or wrong strategy really. Just finding the players who will be good and not get hurt is a big key.

You could have said the same thing about someone who drafted Matt Forte, Steve Slaton, and Kevin Smith two years ago. Thats the entire point the wait on the RB crew is trying to make. Lots of turnover there, and what looks like a stacked dynasty roster today can change very fast. Now if you pick the right RB's you will be ok, the problem being most people can't do that with better than chance results.

 

[RobertBobson]

So, clearly, as we all already agree, the biggest difference in ppg is at RB. However, if before your 2010 draft I would have told you that MOJO would only score like an RB2 and Arian Foster would have scored almost 9 ppg better, you wouldve called me nuts and drafted MOJO in the first round anyway. But thats niether here nor there. .

But yes, it is here or there. Yes, if you told me that MJ would have been a high RB2 before the season, I would have been nuts to draft him there. But if you told me that, at worst, if I drafted him he'd be the 14th running back, I would be fine with it. I drafted arian foster at the start of the 7th in a start up last year ( before tate's injury). Other running backs drafted around him... ronnie brown 6.03, jacobs 6.07, Forsett 6.11, donald brown 7.01 foster 7.02 barber 7.05, dmc 7.10 ricky williams 7.11. Yes, DMC and Foster ended up being elite running backs. But the rest of them gave you little production at all. If you are Depending on hitting on backs in the later rounds, you could hit jackpots.. or you could hit trash, and have a huge hole in your rb.

Let's build a team that we could realistically draft, eliminating the player names and going with just the numbers (cuz the names change every year)..Team A:QB1 = 23.1/ rd 1RB24 = 8.4/round 5RB25 = 8.3/ round 6WR4 = 13.8/round 2WR6 = 12.9/ round 3TE1 = 10.9/round 4TOTAL PPG = 77.4Team B:QB12 = 17.1/ round 6RB1 = 21.3/ round 1RB12 = 12.6/ round 2WR12 = 10.9/ round 3WR20 = 9.8/ round 4TE12 = 6.4/ round 5TOTAL PPG = 78.1

You're gerrymandering this to give your argument strength, however. Why does team B get a wr12 in the third round, but team A get a wr 6 in the third? Team B drafted a TE in the 5th, but he has a TE12. I do not think that's a realistic representation of where TE's go. Last season, the 5th tight end wasn't drafted until the 6th, and the 12th tight end wasn't drafted until the 10th. IF you take a TE in the 5th round, you are doing it to get a TE5 not a TE12. If I had a TE 12, it would be because I drafted him in the 10th or later, and I would have spent that round 5 pick on a WR or RB, that hopefully would give me a chance to have a better WR than WR20, a better RB than Rb12, or a top tier QB that slipped into the 5th round for some reason. My goal in drafting, In general, is to break players into plateau's, and not to be the first person to pick a player from that plateau. Would I rather have the first TE off the board in the 3rd or 4th, or the 5th tight end off the board in the sixth? For me, that's an easy answer. I feel Brady, Brees manning and rivers all have similar values, so I will not be the first of that group in the 2nd, but rather try to take the last of them in the 4th or 5th. Also, you speak as if there are only rb values to be had in later rounds. I feel the same is true of other positions. At quarter back, you may not be able to get a QB1-5 in later rounds ( though it is arguable that Bradford and Freeman drafters may eventually have done just that last season. And Vick, of course. ) But you can draft 7-12 in later rounds. Palmer wasn't the QB12 in my leagues (1 point per 20), he was he 13th, but he was drafted in the 11th round. Ryan was 7th and drafted in the 6th, Freeman 8th and drafted in the 12th,Schaub 10th and drafted in the 5th, Eli 10th and drafted in the 9th, Flacco 11th and drafted in the 5th and Cassel 12th and drafted in the 14th. Here's my point, there is a great value in the Top tier of QB's, because they are predictable ( and I'll add in vick, who may not be as predictable, but his ceiling is so much higher than other qb's he's worth risk). But if I could not get a top, predictable QB, then I would not take an unpredictable one in the 6th, I would take 2 of them in the 8th-12th, and hope one of them becomes a QB1-12.

Why would I take Arodg or Calvin #1 overall? Because he likely has 8+ years of QB1/WR1 production. You can't buy that level of consistency and security with a RB.

I understand why you would take them that high over all, and I'm not even saying you're wrong to value them that high. I am saying that when drafting, it's an error to ignore other people's valuations. If Calvin and Arod are the first two players on your board, and you have the first pick, if you don't trade down to at least the 5th pick, you're making a big mistake, tactically. Because Arod + a 5th round pick > Arod.

I have no issues with waiting until round 3/4 for Brady, however. Like I said before, the goal is to come out of round 4 with a tier 1 QB and TE.

I would not take a tier one TE in the 3rd/4th, because I would not want to be the first to take a tier 1 te, and would prefer to take a tier one TE in the 5th or 6th. It's a risk, I understand, but I think there's more value in RB's in the 3rd and WR's in the 4th, than taking Finley over Witten

If you don't want to wait until round 5 for an RB and grab one in round 3 instead, more power to you, it's a perfectly fine strategy in my book. But drafting an RB in rounds 1 or 2 is pretty much like rolling dice.

Drafting any RB anywhere is rolling the dice. However, if you take an elite RB in the first round, you are risking having a RB1 to RB 15. IF you wait to take one until the 5th, you could get Foster and have the RB1. Or you could have the RB81. Drafting RB's in the first, you do so to assure a minimum performance, not assure a maximum.

Ask yourselves where MOJO, Foster, Charles, Gore, Bradshaw, DMC, McCoy, and to an extent CJ2K and A.P. will be in 2 years? hell even 1 year? Even previous posters on this very thread who support RB early strategies admit that they likely only have a 50% shot at retaining thier job/value after a year.

I don't think there's any reason to assume young backs like Foster, charles, DMC and McCoy will be unproductive in 2 years. MOJO, Bradshaw, and Gore I think there is much more risk they will be unproductive in 2 years, and as a result, they are unlikely to be on my team, unless I get them at an extremely good value.

If you're drafting 1st overall in a 12 or more team league, you have only 1 chance at a top 20 player (based on projections) so it's smart to get the guy with the best chance at anchoring your team for years to come (Arodg and Calvin) even if it's a bit of a reach, because by the time it gets back to you in round 2, that opportunity is gone. It's much better to reach for this type of player than to gamble on MOJO or Ray Rice or some such guy.

IF I had the first over all pick, I would trade it no matter what, because of the tier concept I talked about earlier. I value the 1st RB similarly to the 6th on my board, and I would attempt to trade down for value. But I would be even more inclined to do this if I valued Arod and calvin at the top of my board. Because Value is what I think is most important in drafting. IF you ignore other people's opinions of players and focus on only your own, you're going to lose a lot of value in drafts by reaching when you should not, and Not trading down when you should. If you want to see a real life consequence of this strategy, look no further than the Raiders, and Al Davis's drafting strategies. The reason I would not take Calvin and Aarod first over all, is because I think I can get Wr's and QBs in later rounds, that can anchor my team for years to come. Anchoring a team for years to come is one of the primary attributes of wr's and qb's. All ( or most ) elite WR's and Qb's share that quality. I would rather have Fitz in the second than Calvin in the first. I would rather have Brady in the 4th than Arod first overall. And I'm not saying I wouldn't draft Calvin in the first. I just wouldn't draft him over young, elite RB's, whose seasons are extremely valuable.

 

[RobertBobson]

You could have said the same thing about someone who drafted Matt Forte, Steve Slaton, and Kevin Smith two years ago. Thats the entire point the wait on the RB crew is trying to make. Lots of turnover there, and what looks like a stacked dynasty roster today can change very fast. Now if you pick the right RB's you will be ok, the problem being most people can't do that with better than chance results.

I'll give you slaton and Smith, but Forte has been an RB1 for the last 3 years in my PPR league. That's incredibly valuable. I know some people went over board after his rookie season and drafted him in the top 2 over all, and he has not been performing at that level, but he was the 12th Running back in 2009 and the 9th running back last season, and that's nothing to be dismissive about. I think people get frustrated when they draft running backs in the top 5, expecting them to be top five performers every year. And I don't think that's a realistic goal. If I draft a Running back in the top 5, my goal is to have 3 seasons as an RB1. Anything more than that is gravy.Also, the WR position is not as safe of a bet as everyone assumes either. if you want to play the what if game, you could have had Boldin, Bryant and Royal and felt pretty good about your WR life two seasons ago.

 

[eaglesfan7]

Well we are looking good guys/gals. Right now we have myself, Drmcpa, pretender, No Way Jose, loose circuits, Steed (is a maybe right now), Coop, jeter23 and zilladog. Should be a very competitive league. I'm waiting on a couple more responses so we should be up and running soon.

 

[zilladog]

You're gerrymandering this to give your argument strength, however. Why does team B get a wr12 in the third round, but team A get a wr 6 in the third? Team B drafted a TE in the 5th, but he has a TE12. I do not think that's a realistic representation of where TE's go. Last season, the 5th tight end wasn't drafted until the 6th, and the 12th tight end wasn't drafted until the 10th.

You're absolutely right here. It wouldn't make sense at all to have 2 people drafting WR's in the 3rd and getting that large a disparity. Clearly that was an error on my part. However, the idea of the exercise wasn't so much about which round a player was taken in, but more about the quality of player one got when they waited until later in the draft.

IF I had the first over all pick, I would trade it no matter what, because of the tier concept I talked about earlier. I value the 1st RB similarly to the 6th on my board, and I would attempt to trade down for value.

This is a perfectly good strategy and I am a huge fan of it. It's a great example of why tiering players is smarter than simply ranking them. Barring the possibility of a tradeback though, I would definitely stick to my guns on those two players. Age being the biggest difference. Arodg is so much younger than Manning/Brady/Brees, and Calvin has shown studliness almost no matter the situation or QB throwing to him. And again, if you don't take them with your first pick, you won't get them with your second. In the end, A.P., Foster, Arodg, Calvin, and CJ2K are all first round value, no matter where in the round you happen to pick. But I totally agree, if you can trade back and get them anyway while getting another pick besides, then of course it's the correct way to go.

 

[RobertBobson]

This is a perfectly good strategy and I am a huge fan of it. It's a great example of why tiering players is smarter than simply ranking them. Barring the possibility of a tradeback though, I would definitely stick to my guns on those two players. Age being the biggest difference. Arodg is so much younger than Manning/Brady/Brees, and Calvin has shown studliness almost no matter the situation or QB throwing to him.

I agree completely about Arod, I think he is on a Tier by himself, and I would consider taking him late in the first ( depending on who else is on the board) because of that. I personally have Arod on a Tier by himself, then Vick, then Brees/rivers, then Manning/Brady. Then a large tier with about 6 guys. Vick being a special case, because he is much riskier than any of the rest of them, but has so much of a potential PPG advantage, that he is worth taking a risk on. But if I drafted Vick, I would be taking a quality back up much earlier than I would any of the rest of the top six, which makes him a little more undesirable to me. I'll have to be faced with the situation of seeing vick looking at me at the end of the 2nd, to know what I would do, tbh. In a redraft, I might take him first over all, particularly in 4 point passing TD, 1 per 25 yard passing leagues, where his rushing yards and touchdowns give him such an edge.

 

[No Way Jose]

I like how people in this thread think they have it all figured out. Bottom line there is no true fail safe way to draft. If there was, everyone would do it. Building a solid foundation with the first 6 picks is key but those are not the rounds a great dynasty team is built. Picking up guys like Foster, Hillis, steve Johnson and Brandon Lloyd in the late rounds or on the waiver wire is how you win. You can't draft the best team with just the first 6 picks, it takes hitting on late round flyers, especially in the first year Hope that your core group stays healthy weather it's rb's or wr's and have some wild cards hit. FF is still > 50% luck and the rest is starting a good lineup. IMO.

 

[jeter23]

I like how people in this thread think they have it all figured out. Bottom line there is no true fail safe way to draft. If there was, everyone would do it. Building a solid foundation with the first 6 picks is key but those are not the rounds a great dynasty team is built. Picking up guys like Foster, Hillis, steve Johnson and Brandon Lloyd in the late rounds or on the waiver wire is how you win. You can't draft the best team with just the first 6 picks, it takes hitting on late round flyers, especially in the first year Hope that your core group stays healthy weather it's rb's or wr's and have some wild cards hit. FF is still > 50% luck and the rest is starting a good lineup. IMO.

I agree with this. Hyper/Active 1 has been around for 5 years now and I have made 4 Super Bowls. My initail draft was not outstanding, but I was able to grab some guys off the waiver wire that made a huge difference (Romo/Austin/Colston). I have also seen some strategies that can really work well, but are not always possible, namely trading down multiple times and acquiring future 1sts.

 

[RobertBobson]

I like how people in this thread think they have it all figured out. Bottom line there is no true fail safe way to draft. If there was, everyone would do it. Building a solid foundation with the first 6 picks is key but those are not the rounds a great dynasty team is built. Picking up guys like Foster, Hillis, steve Johnson and Brandon Lloyd in the late rounds or on the waiver wire is how you win. You can't draft the best team with just the first 6 picks, it takes hitting on late round flyers, especially in the first year Hope that your core group stays healthy weather it's rb's or wr's and have some wild cards hit. FF is still > 50% luck and the rest is starting a good lineup. IMO.

I like how you come into a thread about drafting strategy, and criticize people for talking about drafting strategy. No one is suggesting they have it "figured out" We are just participating in the topic of the thread, IE Talking about our strategies and critiquing other peoples. Also, no one is suggesting that drafting is the sole route of achieving fantasy success, or that drafts effectively end in the 6th round. And of course fantasy football has a luck element involved, I'm not sure what relevance that has to this topic. I don't think it's constructive to ruminate on the luck aspect of fantasy football, which we can't effect. I think discussing the aspects we can control ( for example the topic of this thread, draft strategy) is constructive.

 

[Tau837]

I like how people in this thread think they have it all figured out. Bottom line there is no true fail safe way to draft. If there was, everyone would do it. Building a solid foundation with the first 6 picks is key but those are not the rounds a great dynasty team is built. Picking up guys like Foster, Hillis, steve Johnson and Brandon Lloyd in the late rounds or on the waiver wire is how you win. You can't draft the best team with just the first 6 picks, it takes hitting on late round flyers, especially in the first year Hope that your core group stays healthy weather it's rb's or wr's and have some wild cards hit. FF is still > 50% luck and the rest is starting a good lineup. IMO.

I like how you come into a thread about drafting strategy, and criticize people for talking about drafting strategy. No one is suggesting they have it "figured out" We are just participating in the topic of the thread, IE Talking about our strategies and critiquing other peoples. Also, no one is suggesting that drafting is the sole route of achieving fantasy success, or that drafts effectively end in the 6th round. And of course fantasy football has a luck element involved, I'm not sure what relevance that has to this topic. I don't think it's constructive to ruminate on the luck aspect of fantasy football, which we can't effect. I think discussing the aspects we can control ( for example the topic of this thread, draft strategy) is constructive.

However, to be fair, I think Coop is pretty convinced that he does have it figured out.

 

[jeter23]

I like how people in this thread think they have it all figured out. Bottom line there is no true fail safe way to draft. If there was, everyone would do it. Building a solid foundation with the first 6 picks is key but those are not the rounds a great dynasty team is built. Picking up guys like Foster, Hillis, steve Johnson and Brandon Lloyd in the late rounds or on the waiver wire is how you win. You can't draft the best team with just the first 6 picks, it takes hitting on late round flyers, especially in the first year Hope that your core group stays healthy weather it's rb's or wr's and have some wild cards hit. FF is still > 50% luck and the rest is starting a good lineup. IMO.

I like how you come into a thread about drafting strategy, and criticize people for talking about drafting strategy. No one is suggesting they have it "figured out" We are just participating in the topic of the thread, IE Talking about our strategies and critiquing other peoples. Also, no one is suggesting that drafting is the sole route of achieving fantasy success, or that drafts effectively end in the 6th round. And of course fantasy football has a luck element involved, I'm not sure what relevance that has to this topic. I don't think it's constructive to ruminate on the luck aspect of fantasy football, which we can't effect. I think discussing the aspects we can control ( for example the topic of this thread, draft strategy) is constructive.

I won't speak for Jose, but even though I agree with his post, I really appreciate the discussion and the viewpoints being shared here. There is not only one way to go about an initial draft, but my ideas have been affected by following this thread.

 

[No Way Jose]

I like how people in this thread think they have it all figured out. Bottom line there is no true fail safe way to draft. If there was, everyone would do it. Building a solid foundation with the first 6 picks is key but those are not the rounds a great dynasty team is built. Picking up guys like Foster, Hillis, steve Johnson and Brandon Lloyd in the late rounds or on the waiver wire is how you win. You can't draft the best team with just the first 6 picks, it takes hitting on late round flyers, especially in the first year Hope that your core group stays healthy weather it's rb's or wr's and have some wild cards hit. FF is still > 50% luck and the rest is starting a good lineup. IMO.

I like how you come into a thread about drafting strategy, and criticize people for talking about drafting strategy. No one is suggesting they have it "figured out" We are just participating in the topic of the thread, IE Talking about our strategies and critiquing other peoples. Also, no one is suggesting that drafting is the sole route of achieving fantasy success, or that drafts effectively end in the 6th round. And of course fantasy football has a luck element involved, I'm not sure what relevance that has to this topic. I don't think it's constructive to ruminate on the luck aspect of fantasy football, which we can't effect. I think discussing the aspects we can control ( for example the topic of this thread, draft strategy) is constructive.

I am not making personal attacks on anyones drafting strategy. I have no problem with this discussion and find it helpful. My criticism is of the folks who truly believe that their way is the correct way to build a team. There are just too many variables that come in to play to stick with one strategy. I let the draft come to me and choose on the fly the best player available usually regardless of position. This is what I usually do, and I don't claim it to be the best method.

 

[RobertBobson]

I am not making personal attacks on anyones drafting strategy. I have no problem with this discussion and find it helpful. My criticism is of the folks who truly believe that their way is the correct way to build a team. There are just too many variables that come in to play to stick with one strategy. I let the draft come to me and choose on the fly the best player available usually regardless of position. This is what I usually do, and I don't claim it to be the best method.

I wasn't saying that you were making personal attacks. I was just saying that it's not particularly constructive to come into a thread about draft strategy, and tell everyone draft strategy doesn't matter. There is absolutely nothing wrong with the BPA strategy, btw, and it is usually what I do. By saying that I wait usually until later rounds to take QB's and TE's, it's because that's where value them. The only time I will deviate from the BPA strategy, is if I have a number of players that a value similarly at a position, and I think one of them ( for what ever reason) will be around for the next round, then I will take a player at a position that I may not like quite as much, but is at a position where his tier of talent is more scarce. THat is why I tend to take RBs early, because I think there are more reliable WR, TE and QB's in the 4th-5th rounds than there are reliable rb's.

 

[Instinctive]

I don't think we're debating that any one strategy is "the one" for success, but rather that certain strategies seem to give you better chances.

It's like deciding between a few different baskets of lottery balls for a lottery similar to the NBA draft. Each basket has a different number of balls that will go into the lottery for you - each basket represents a different drafting strategy. I want to be using the strategy that is represented by the basket that has the most lottery balls.

If my strategy gives me the equivalent of 15 balls (say there are 100 in a 12 man league) then I am a step ahead of the game. By no means am I guaranteed success (there's still 85 balls out there among my leaguemates). But if I have the most balls at 15 and the other 11 guys average around 7.5, then I have a leg up.

 

[zilladog]

I like how people in this thread think they have it all figured out. Bottom line there is no true fail safe way to draft. If there was, everyone would do it. Building a solid foundation with the first 6 picks is key but those are not the rounds a great dynasty team is built. Picking up guys like Foster, Hillis, steve Johnson and Brandon Lloyd in the late rounds or on the waiver wire is how you win. You can't draft the best team with just the first 6 picks, it takes hitting on late round flyers, especially in the first year Hope that your core group stays healthy weather it's rb's or wr's and have some wild cards hit. FF is still > 50% luck and the rest is starting a good lineup. IMO.

Of course no one has it "figured out". That's why there is a thread about differing strategies. I feel like waiting on RB's is a minority strategy, so I defend it appropriately. how interesting would this thread be if we all talked about how lucky we all needed to get to get to draft a good team (I don't feel its >50% btw). The way I see it, is if you have a specific plan to minimize luck and maximize team strength, you should stand by it, no matter what the strategy may be. If you defend your position, it helps you to see better where the weaknesses and strengths of your reasoning are, and how/if you should make adjustments. There are many ways to win a league.Imo, this is the best thread currently going on any FF message board out there. This is the time of year to have these debates. And it wouldn't do anyone any good to put an opinion ot there and then admit that its all moot cuz you just have to get lucky in the end anyway. "This game is all luck" is a myth, just ask all the guys who win championships year in and year out.

 

[RobertBobson]

This game is all luck" is a myth, just ask all the guys who win championships year in and year out.

I think what the game is, is probabilistic. Meaning that everyone starts a season, or a game, with a certain (ultimately unknowable) win percentage. If you are a 65-35% favorite to win a game, that's a significant advantage.. and you still are going to lose a large percentage of the time. If you are a 3-1 favorite to win your league, you're a huge favorite. And you're still only going to win that league one out of every 4 years. Luck plays into player injuries, deep round fliers and waiver wire pick ups. But there's nothing lucky about building your team with depth to sustain injuries, doing indepth research about players to know which to take a flier on, and scouring your waiver wire for prospects. Those things really just take work, time and interest. Fantasy football is a gambling game, and there is a strong element of chance involved. Just as there is in poker, or craps. But if you are a skilled fantasy player (or more skilled than your league mates), you will have a significant advantage over them in the long run, that is not luck based. Just as if you're a skilled poker player, you'll win in the long run or are the house in the long run. Someone might get on a hot streak... but in the long run, the results will approach the odds. That said, the more knowledgeable your league mates are, the more avidly they work the wiver wire, research picks, the less your advantage can be, and the more the results will be based on luck. And the more effect a superior draft approach can have on results! Every little edge matters when your opponents are tough.

 

[zilladog]

This game is all luck" is a myth, just ask all the guys who win championships year in and year out.

I think what the game is, is probabilistic. Meaning that everyone starts a season, or a game, with a certain (ultimately unknowable) win percentage. If you are a 65-35% favorite to win a game, that's a significant advantage.. and you still are going to lose a large percentage of the time. If you are a 3-1 favorite to win your league, you're a huge favorite. And you're still only going to win that league one out of every 4 years. Luck plays into player injuries, deep round fliers and waiver wire pick ups. But there's nothing lucky about building your team with depth to sustain injuries, doing indepth research about players to know which to take a flier on, and scouring your waiver wire for prospects. Those things really just take work, time and interest. Fantasy football is a gambling game, and there is a strong element of chance involved. Just as there is in poker, or craps. But if you are a skilled fantasy player (or more skilled than your league mates), you will have a significant advantage over them in the long run, that is not luck based. Just as if you're a skilled poker player, you'll win in the long run or are the house in the long run. Someone might get on a hot streak... but in the long run, the results will approach the odds. That said, the more knowledgeable your league mates are, the more avidly they work the wiver wire, research picks, the less your advantage can be, and the more the results will be based on luck. And the more effect a superior draft approach can have on results! Every little edge matters when your opponents are tough.

 

[Cato]

So.. wanted to add this, though I am joining the discussion way too late.

(long time lurker, 1st time poster, had issues with ID creation. blablabla)

The taking RBs late theory, seems to tie into Matt Waldman's article on "upside down" drafting for one. It may

be easier in a PPR league. (the gap in scoring between WRs and RBs is closer.) It may be easier in redraft before the ADPs come into line, see jumping

later on Arian Foster in a 2010 May draft versus an August draft. (Or likewise Ray Rice in 2009)

From the discussion thread here, it also seems very applicable in a dynasty draft. (redraft may be easier as the waiver wire usually has more prospects on it.)

I would suggest that a dynasty team is like an investment portfolio, and that

either the RB heavy style or the "upside" down style have risks.

The RB heavy style risks a little on the longevity front, and the potential

of not having chosen the right "special backs".

The upside down style risks some in regards to the competitive side, which

may either try the owner's patience or not pay off depending on how healthy

the league is. (ie the league may fold before you see it come to

fruition.)

In either one, I think the manager can use trades or drafting to improve

their team's stock in areas of weakness.  Waiver wire pickups require a

skillful manager but may be too luck based to really depend on. (assume all

owners are equally as adept at picking up as you are.)

In theory the RB heavy team, may finish at a 1.09 and have landed Hakeem

Nicks in that spot.  And set itself up nicely for the future.

The WR heavy team, may finish somewhere in the 1.04 area due to it's

subdued scoring potential.  Perhaps it was able to land LeSean McCoy at

that spot.

One thing to keep in mind is that 1st round RBs tend to hit at a 50% rate,

1st round WRs tend to hit at a 33% rate. The team that is built on WRs has

already hit on these harder to rookie draft commodities, and provided it's

record or ability to trade lands it high enough to draft an RB, it should

be well off.

The team built on RBs can likely rookie draft, or preferrably trade for

it's WR corps.

Following the axiom of trade for WRs, draft RBs, given the hit rates on rookie picks, it

may benefit the RB heavy team to have an owner or an environment in which

they can trade themselves into a WR corps.  The WR heavy team, may benefit

from an owner or environment very adept at RB rookie drafting. (Based loosely on higher hit rate for rookie RBs, different owners may be much stronger at RB or WR drafting respectively.)

Which theory is correct? I would suggest one feeds into the other, when

other owners are "zigging", it can pay off to be "zagging" to try and obtain

the top players at a different position.

It likely pays off to get the truly "special" players, rather than just some

which can score points at the most important positions.

See SSOG's argument back in the day about taking Antonio Gates at the 8th

spot in a dynasty start up over a Rudi Johnson, let's say. (paraphrasing from memory, may be a little off there.) Which asset

would you rather have in your possession at this time?

I don't  believe it is as important what position are being drafted,

provided the players being taken are "special". The theories are Ying and

Yang, linked together. Don't think either theory is the "one way" to approach the problem, so to

hold one above the other, is really just a question of style.

Further food for thought, or things I've learned from this thread, great thread, by the way.

1.) A WR is not an independent entity, ie, it's value can be more dependent on the QB or system they are in. (a WR is more dependent on a QB performing well, RB is more independent, though not completely.) ..... Compare Fitzgerald's points, and Steve Smith (CAR) , versus the relative stability of Steven Jackson. .... As a spin off a traditional TE may be more dependent on their O-line performing well. See Witten. Hmmm..... these may be additional risk factors in dynasty rankings, for the upside down drafting style.

2) The other thought process is , given the proposed success of shot-gunning RBs, provided one has the carrying room, it seems to validate scooping more RB prospects.

To sum up:

"Upside down" drafting may be easier in a PPR league, may be easier earlier in the year, may be easier for someone with good RB scouting/drafting skills.

Traditional RB heavy drafting may be easier in a non-PPR league, may be required if the "cat is out of the bag" on RB sleeper, may be easier for someone with good WR scouting/trading skills.

My 2 cents

 

[eaglesfan7]

Good points Cato.

 

[pretender]

So.. wanted to add this, though I am joining the discussion way too late.

(long time lurker, 1st time poster, had issues with ID creation. blablabla)

The taking RBs late theory, seems to tie into Matt Waldman's article on "upside down" drafting for one. It may

be easier in a PPR league. (the gap in scoring between WRs and RBs is closer.) It may be easier in redraft before the ADPs come into line, see jumping

later on Arian Foster in a 2010 May draft versus an August draft. (Or likewise Ray Rice in 2009)

From the discussion thread here, it also seems very applicable in a dynasty draft. (redraft may be easier as the waiver wire usually has more prospects on it.)

I would suggest that a dynasty team is like an investment portfolio, and that

either the RB heavy style or the "upside" down style have risks.

The RB heavy style risks a little on the longevity front, and the potential

of not having chosen the right "special backs".

The upside down style risks some in regards to the competitive side, which

may either try the owner's patience or not pay off depending on how healthy

the league is. (ie the league may fold before you see it come to

fruition.)

In either one, I think the manager can use trades or drafting to improve

their team's stock in areas of weakness.  Waiver wire pickups require a

skillful manager but may be too luck based to really depend on. (assume all

owners are equally as adept at picking up as you are.)

In theory the RB heavy team, may finish at a 1.09 and have landed Hakeem

Nicks in that spot.  And set itself up nicely for the future.

The WR heavy team, may finish somewhere in the 1.04 area due to it's

subdued scoring potential.  Perhaps it was able to land LeSean McCoy at

that spot.

One thing to keep in mind is that 1st round RBs tend to hit at a 50% rate,

1st round WRs tend to hit at a 33% rate. The team that is built on WRs has

already hit on these harder to rookie draft commodities, and provided it's

record or ability to trade lands it high enough to draft an RB, it should

be well off.

The team built on RBs can likely rookie draft, or preferrably trade for

it's WR corps.

Following the axiom of trade for WRs, draft RBs, given the hit rates on rookie picks, it

may benefit the RB heavy team to have an owner or an environment in which

they can trade themselves into a WR corps.  The WR heavy team, may benefit

from an owner or environment very adept at RB rookie drafting. (Based loosely on higher hit rate for rookie RBs, different owners may be much stronger at RB or WR drafting respectively.)

Which theory is correct? I would suggest one feeds into the other, when

other owners are "zigging", it can pay off to be "zagging" to try and obtain

the top players at a different position.

It likely pays off to get the truly "special" players, rather than just some

which can score points at the most important positions.

See SSOG's argument back in the day about taking Antonio Gates at the 8th

spot in a dynasty start up over a Rudi Johnson, let's say. (paraphrasing from memory, may be a little off there.) Which asset

would you rather have in your possession at this time?

I don't  believe it is as important what position are being drafted,

provided the players being taken are "special". The theories are Ying and

Yang, linked together. Don't think either theory is the "one way" to approach the problem, so to

hold one above the other, is really just a question of style.

Further food for thought, or things I've learned from this thread, great thread, by the way.

1.) A WR is not an independent entity, ie, it's value can be more dependent on the QB or system they are in. (a WR is more dependent on a QB performing well, RB is more independent, though not completely.) ..... Compare Fitzgerald's points, and Steve Smith (CAR) , versus the relative stability of Steven Jackson. .... As a spin off a traditional TE may be more dependent on their O-line performing well. See Witten. Hmmm..... these may be additional risk factors in dynasty rankings, for the upside down drafting style.

2) The other thought process is , given the proposed success of shot-gunning RBs, provided one has the carrying room, it seems to validate scooping more RB prospects.

To sum up:

"Upside down" drafting may be easier in a PPR league, may be easier earlier in the year, may be easier for someone with good RB scouting/drafting skills.

Traditional RB heavy drafting may be easier in a non-PPR league, may be required if the "cat is out of the bag" on RB sleeper, may be easier for someone with good WR scouting/trading skills.

My 2 cents

 

[Concept Coop]

However, to be fair, I think Coop is pretty convinced that he does have it figured out.

No need to make personal comments like this. And that is not a fair comment at all.My drafting strategy and the VORP conversation we have been having are two very different things. I haven't even gotten into how I draft, which is a tier, VBD concept that I think most use. I take the most valuable player on the board when I pick. If the pick is early, in most formats, that is a RB. But I have never suggested taking a certain position, in a certain order. The opposite, actually.

 

[Tau837]

However, to be fair, I think Coop is pretty convinced that he does have it figured out.

No need to make personal comments like this. And that is not a fair comment at all.My drafting strategy and the VORP conversation we have been having are two very different things. I haven't even gotten into how I draft, which is a tier, VBD concept that I think most use. I take the most valuable player on the board when I pick. If the pick is early, in most formats, that is a RB. But I have never suggested taking a certain position, in a certain order. The opposite, actually.

I don't view that as a personal comment. It's my view of how you have portrayed yourself in the thread. I stand corrected, you don't think you have it figured out.

 

[Concept Coop]

THat is why I tend to take RBs early, because I think there are more reliable WR, TE and QB's in the 4th-5th rounds than there are reliable rb's.

I like this statement.

 

[Concept Coop]

It matters to the numerous people in this thread who have asked you the question. It would give us much better insight into your thought process and strategy.

You seem to be employing a moving target here. You are not directly answering anyones questions, just redirecting things to a red herring. It's no wonder that people are having a hard time following your position.

I apologize if that is the case. I am getting ready to do a startup draft with much of these posters and don't want to go into it too much. But there are 5 RBs on my first tier, that I would take before any WR/TE/QB. The list includes McCoy. My point, by saying it doesn't matter, is this: Even if there were only 2, that doesn't mean the top RBs (2) are worth less than the top WRs. It only means that there are less top RBs.

I am not saying draft a RB no matter what. Just that it is not wise to pass over a more valuable RB for a WR, because of universal advantages that the WR has.

If I am drafting a certain point, I would be happy as hell to take Calvin and a few other WRs in the first.

 

[RobertBobson]

[

I apologize if that is the case. I am getting ready to do a startup draft with much of these posters and don't want to go into it too much. But there are 5 RBs on my first tier, that I would take before any WR/TE/QB. The list includes McCoy.

My point, by saying it doesn't matter, is this: Even if there were only 2, that doesn't mean the top RBs (2) are worth less than the top WRs. It only means that there are less top RBs.

I am not saying draft a RB no matter what. Just that it is not wise to pass over a more valuable RB for a WR, because of universal advantages that the WR has.

If I am drafting a certain point, I would be happy as hell to take Calvin and a few other WRs in the first.

I agree with pretty much everything here. And Since I am at the 1.11 in that draft, I don't think I'll have to worry about taking either calvin or any of the top tier of running backs..

 

[RobertBobson]

[

I apologize if that is the case. I am getting ready to do a startup draft with much of these posters and don't want to go into it too much. But there are 5 RBs on my first tier, that I would take before any WR/TE/QB. The list includes McCoy.

My point, by saying it doesn't matter, is this: Even if there were only 2, that doesn't mean the top RBs (2) are worth less than the top WRs. It only means that there are less top RBs.

I am not saying draft a RB no matter what. Just that it is not wise to pass over a more valuable RB for a WR, because of universal advantages that the WR has.

If I am drafting a certain point, I would be happy as hell to take Calvin and a few other WRs in the first.

I agree with pretty much everything here. And Since I am at the 1.11 in that draft, I don't think I'll have to worry about taking either calvin or any of the top tier of running backs..

 

[zilladog]

I got the 1.05......and I think we all know who I'm taking if he's still there. I haven't made any attempt to hide it.

Colt McCoy.......welcome to my team

 

[eaglesfan7]

Zilladog

I have the 1.04 and Im taking Colt...unless you want to deal of course.

 

[eaglesfan7]

RBBC are forming everywhere and this makes the stud backs that don't share the ball even more valuable. Starks just lost some value with alex green going to green bay. They now have a running back for every down. The patriots draft Vareen and Ridley? Totally a mess in that backfield. Ingram, PT and Ivory? Not sure what to make of that mess. Many others are forming as well.

 

[RobertBobson]

So , I started a start up draft today, where i had the number 4 pick. It's a 12 team, 4 point passing td, 1 per 20 passing yard league, 1 qb 2 rb 2 wr 1 wr/rb 1te 1d 1k league. I took Charles at the 1.04, AP, CJ and Rice went before him, and I was glad to do so, as Charles was 3rd on my board. i had made feelers to trade down, but got no bites.

The picks immediately after me were Foster, McCoy, Cj, MJD, Fitz, AJ, DMC, Mendy, white and nicks. At this point, all of the elite rbs I considered in the top tier were gone (the first six) and the second tier ( the next 3), along with all 5 of the WR's in my top tier. This left exactly 1 player left on my elite tier of players, a "first round talent", and that's Rodgers. I feel he's on a tier by himself. and even in a 4 point per touch down league, I feel his age and PPG average make him a significant advantage over other wr's. I considered waiting at 2.09 and taking vick( who's PPG advantage is even greater, but is much risker), but I felt that there was too much value in rodgers. I think people let him slip too far. So I traded my 3.04 pick, plus my 2011 first rounder and moved up to get him. I feel that I got a 1.08ish value at 2.03.

This is part of the reason I think it's an error to take Aarod or Calvin first over all, because they are likely to drop to a lower position in most drafts, that you can trade up ( or down) into if you want to take them.

Suppose I took Rodgers with my 1.04 pick, then whom would be left at rb for me in the second round? I would have to trade up higher to get one I wanted ( mendy or dmc), otherwise, I trade up to get one like Forte or jstew, who I have as late 2nd round picks, losing value.

If I stay put at 2.09, who will be left to me? Older ones that have reliable production but heavy miles like SJax, Gore and Turner, who's fantasy value is dropping not rising, or much riskier ones like Mathews and moreno, or one with a limited upside like blount. Given who is likely to fall to me at 2.09, I probably would take a wr, and probably at the 3.04 also, So that would give me Aarod and two wr1/2's, but a horror show waiting for me in the 4th and 5th round at RB1.

 

[Instinctive]

Bump for someone else who started a new strategy thread. We've got this one, may as well use it

 

[Matt's Eagles]

Bump for someone else who started a new strategy thread. We've got this one, may as well use it

Mine is just talking personal strategies....this is a long drawn out debate....

 

[Go deep]

Bump for someone else who started a new strategy thread. We've got this one, may as well use it

Mine is just talking personal strategies....this is a long drawn out debate....

Its a long drawn out debate about personal strategies. Although it does get to a point where it is just argung back and forth. You can always stop once you get that far though.

 

[Matt's Eagles]

Bump for someone else who started a new strategy thread. We've got this one, may as well use it

Mine is just talking personal strategies....this is a long drawn out debate....

Its a long drawn out debate about personal strategies. Although it does get to a point where it is just argung back and forth. You can always stop once you get that far though.

Yeah I would rather start fresh...there was a reason why this topic fell back to page 4....Just want simple hey this is how I look at a draft..

 

[Go deep]

Bump for someone else who started a new strategy thread. We've got this one, may as well use it

Mine is just talking personal strategies....this is a long drawn out debate....

Its a long drawn out debate about personal strategies. Although it does get to a point where it is just argung back and forth. You can always stop once you get that far though.

Yeah I would rather start fresh...there was a reason why this topic fell back to page 4....Just want simple hey this is how I look at a draft..

That topic fell because there was nothing left to discuss. Which is why you wont get much discussion on your new thread about the exact same thing......Not that it matters to me, have fun.

 

[Ian F]

Great read everyone!

I trust someone is gonna post the link to the draft results from the FBG forum draft mentioned in this thread

Thanks

 

[Instinctive]

Great read everyone!I trust someone is gonna post the link to the draft results from the FBG forum draft mentioned in this threadThanks

I'm sure someone will - but the results may or may not be all that useful. Last year we had a huge debate on QBs in the first, did the draft...and the league died right away...preseason lol.

 

[jeter23]

Great read everyone!I trust someone is gonna post the link to the draft results from the FBG forum draft mentioned in this threadThanks

I'm sure someone will - but the results may or may not be all that useful. Last year we had a huge debate on QBs in the first, did the draft...and the league died right away...preseason lol.

That was with a commish who went into the draft thinking it would be a mock only. Some of the rest of us tried to turn it into a real league, but it didn't happen.This one has been much more stable, although we have misplaced Eaglesfan the draft is nearing completion. Everyone is welcome to share their thoughts on the teams/strategies.http://football33.myfantasyleague.com/2011/options?L=62767&O=17

 

[Ian F]

That was with a commish who went into the draft thinking it would be a mock only. Some of the rest of us tried to turn it into a real league, but it didn't happen.

This one has been much more stable, although we have misplaced Eaglesfan the draft is nearing completion. Everyone is welcome to share their thoughts on the teams/strategies.

http://football33.myfantasyleague.com/2011/options?L=62767&O=17

So here are my thoughts - no individual criticism intended so please don't take it that wayWould welcome other reviews of the draft

General thoughts on team building

1) Ensure your philosophy is consistent (or at least avoid conflicting philosophies)

I.e. Picks may make sense in a vacuum but not necessarily when looked at together

e.g. Drafting an upside QB as your top QB who will take a few years to reach elite level (if ever) and then taking an aging RB who offers short term performance doesn't make sense to me

2) Trust your early picks

You can't afford to hedge an early pick at the expense of the rest of your starters

e.g. If you take a QB in the top 2 rounds (or maybe even top 4) it doesn't make sense to then take another one well before the rest of your starters are selected

Specific strategies and how they seem to have panned out in this draft

Hard to match all the teams on MFL with users who posted strategies here

A) RB early

Summary: seems pretty viable

Coop - 3 RBs in 4 rounds

Seems to be strong at RB although none of the RBs selected have a track record along the lines of ADP or maybe CJ so clearly the risk of RBs dropping off completely is very real with this team

Overall this team seems pretty solid to me with, spotlight on the starting WR and QB based on his strategy = not bad

Ben

3 of Maclin, Welker, Lloyd, Baldwin, Moss and maybe Ward

Bobson - RB-RB

Hard to argue with Mendy and JC

Again this team seems in pretty good shape, Spotlight on QB and WR = seems fine for now (a bit thin) altho 3 key parts on downside of career

Peyton

3 of Reggie, Colston, Smith NYG & BMW

B) Elite QB + Elite TE

Summary: Seems to achieve stated objectives altho I wonder if the QB and TE + "strong young WRs" give you enough of an edge on guys with great RBs. IMHO probably not in a 12 team league

Zilla - QB-WR-WR-TE

Hard to argue with ARod + VD and altho I like the Jacksons they aren't the most slam dunk picks in PPR given their typical 60odd receptions rather than say 90+

His flip phase (picking RBs while others pick elsewhere) yielded Greene, Spiller, Felix, Hardesty so potential there for sure

C) Elite WRs / Wait on RBs

Steed

Summary: Overall pretty good altho as expected the RBs look a bit weak to me but if you believe you can hit on some late round guys that jump into top 10 and/or work the WW. Also question on the specific WRs as not sure I consider Williams TBB an elite perenial top 10 WR but certainly could be. Seems like this strat would work better from later draft slot so your 2nd rnd WR is better

Spotlight on RBs

Start 2 of Mathews, Lynch, Wells, Murray/Choice

D) Avoid QB in first 4-5 rounds, BPA

Eaglesfan - hard to be sure how representative this team is since he is MIA from the league now, however

Summary: Not loving this team for win now or later quite frankly, big ?? at every position if you ask me.

e.g. Rice, Britt, Johnson, Collie could be awesome WRs or all could be injured/ 1 year wonders

Finley inj prone TE with best backup = Bennett

Hillis + unproven rookie RBs

Spotlight on QB

Young, Flynn, Henne or Smith - uggh. No clear trade bait to acquire one either

Others

Pretender did not express a clear favorite strategy in the thread and his early rounds would suggest BPA however IMHO this team is hard to evaluate as representing specific strategy since it contains 3 QBs in the first 7 picks - hard to justify in my mind in 12 tm league

Wow ok that is a crazy long post that nobody's gone make it all the way through! Oh well looking forward to other responses.

Basically no clear best team / strategy jumps out at me

 

[No Way Jose]

I took the BPA QB/TE kinda late theory. (I just made that up BTW). I feel pretty good with how it turned out though. I think I have a solid team, that is young and can compete the first year. All in all it was a good draft with what looks like some solid teams. Too bad Eaglesfan disappeared, but we found a new owner. Would like to hear how some of the teams feel about their squads. I drafted in the 3rd position and only made one real trade that move me from the back of round two 3 spots but moved me up quite a few spots in to the 4th on the back side. Most of the WR's taken in the late second and early third can be interchangeable and would be happy with which ever two I got. I went RB, WR, WR, RB, WR, RB, QB, rookieWR, rookieWR, TE. Waiting till the later rounds to get a solid QB in Shaub and the severly underrated Cooley. Here is my roster and round taken.

NO WAY JOSE

Player YTD Pts Bye Drafted

Dalton, Andy CIN QB ® - 7 14.10

Palmer, Carson CIN QB - 7 18.10

Schaub, Matt HOU QB - 11 7.03

Blount, LeGarrette TBB RB - 8 4.10

Bradford, Allen TBB RB ® - 8 22.10

Bradshaw, Ahmad NYG RB (P) - 7 5.10

Bush, Reggie NOS RB (P) - 11 15.03

Foster, Arian HOU RB (P) - 11 1.03

Hightower, Tim ARI RB - 6 20.10

Jacobs, Brandon NYG RB - 7 16.10

Tate, Ben HOU RB (P) - 11 12.10

Austin, Miles DAL WR - 5 3.03

Bowe, Dwayne KCC WR - 6 3.01

Crabtree, Michael SFO WR - 7 5.03

Hankerson, Leonard WAS WR ® - 5 9.03

Jones, Jacoby HOU WR - 11 19.03

Meachem, Robert NOS WR (Q) - 11 17.03

Pilares, Kealoha CAR WR ® - 9 24.10

Smith, Torrey BAL WR ® - 5 8.10

Cook, Jared TEN TE - 6 11.03

Cooley, Chris WAS TE (P) - 5 10.10

Rudolph, Kyle MIN TE ® - 9 13.03

Stocker, Luke TBB TE ® - 8 25.03

Kaeding, Nate SDC PK - 6 23.03

Bears, Chicago CHI Def

I thought Bradshaw was good value in the 5.10 since I almost took him in the 4th. Also snagged a few rookies that I like in Torrey Smith, Hankerson, and Rudolph.

Enjoyed it guys, look forward to fun year.

 

[Concept Coop]

I took the BPA QB/TE kinda late theory. (I just made that up BTW). I feel pretty good with how it turned out though. I think I have a solid team, that is young and can compete the first year. All in all it was a good draft with what looks like some solid teams.

I think the draft fell to you better than it did any other team. Getting Foster at 3 is good value. But Bowe and Austin in round 3, when you start 3-4 WRs, is simply great - all you can ask for without trading up. Also, Bradshaw in 5 is perfect too. You got two WRs, back-to-back, right when the first two tiers were drying up. Then, as people started reaching for WRs just to start, you could afford to take RBs like Blount and Bradshaw. I think Blount is a bit risky in PPR. But the value at RB was on the board. Great draft.

 

[Concept Coop]

A) RB early

Summary: seems pretty viable

Coop - 3 RBs in 4 rounds

Seems to be strong at RB although none of the RBs selected have a track record along the lines of ADP or maybe CJ so clearly the risk of RBs dropping off completely is very real with this team

Overall this team seems pretty solid to me with, spotlight on the starting WR and QB based on his strategy = not bad

Ben

3 of Maclin, Welker, Lloyd, Baldwin, Moss and maybe Ward

Thanks for the summaries. To address mine:I think there is some reason for concern taking 3 RBs with my first 4 picks. I think that risk was mitigated greatly, as I got a bit lucky later in the draft. Going so heavy at RB, one would assume major weaknesses elsewhere in the lineup. But I think the following picks really helped me out:

Maclin (late 3rd), Welker (5th), Lloyd (7th), and S. Moss (13th): I have a disadvantage at WR1, a wash at WR2, an advantage at WR3 and a solid backup/flex in Moss. Worst case scenario, I think I am average at the WR spot. I am very happy with that, considering I waited as long as I did to put them together. Baldwin in the 8th is an upside pick that could be a WR2 by the time Welker and Lloyd slow down.

Roethlisberger (late 6th): I needed this pick. He was the last guy on the tier, is under 30, and is coming off 2 straight top 5-6 PPG seasons. In general, I don't feel I give up much at the QB spot. Getting him so late really helped the draft/roster as a whole.

Gronkowski (9th): TE is my weakest spot, but Gronkowski can fix that. He is on the roster with another very talented, young TE, so there is risk. But there is upside. I would have liked to pair him with a guy like Cooley or Daniels later, but was unable to.

Worst case scenario, 2 of my RBs don't pan out and I am middle of the road as a roster and a bit old at WR. Best case scenario, I have a 4 year stretch in which I have two RB1s and my league-mates are shuffling through time-shares just to find a 2nd RB to start.

We shall see.

 

[No Way Jose]

I took the BPA QB/TE kinda late theory. (I just made that up BTW). I feel pretty good with how it turned out though. I think I have a solid team, that is young and can compete the first year. All in all it was a good draft with what looks like some solid teams.

I think the draft fell to you better than it did any other team. Getting Foster at 3 is good value. But Bowe and Austin in round 3, when you start 3-4 WRs, is simply great - all you can ask for without trading up. Also, Bradshaw in 5 is perfect too. You got two WRs, back-to-back, right when the first two tiers were drying up. Then, as people started reaching for WRs just to start, you could afford to take RBs like Blount and Bradshaw. I think Blount is a bit risky in PPR. But the value at RB was on the board. Great draft.

Thanks

 

[jeter23]

I was not heavily involved with the strategy discussion of this thread, but was glad to be invited to participate in the league. As far as my strategy, I usually go young, but try to put together a balanced team in hopes to compete in year 1.

QB-

Clausen, Jimmy CAR QB - 9 24.01

Freeman, Josh TBB QB - 8 6.01

Kolb, Kevin PHI QB - 7 10.05

Ryan, Matt ATL QB - 8 5.12

Stanzi, Ricky KCC QB ® - 6 25.12

With 6 points for passing TDs, I knew I wanted 2 good young QBs early and got those with Ryan/Freeman. Taking those 2 also forced a run allowing some value to fall later. I expect Kolb to be dealt and gives me a high upside QB3. He is a possible trade chip for help elsewhere if he performs well. I took a shot on Clausen and Stanzi late and will have to sit on both for a couple of years to find what I have. The large roster size makes that possible.

RB-

Addai, Joseph IND RB - 11 11.07

Barber, Marion DAL RB - 5 20.01

Brown, Donald IND RB - 11 11.10

Dwyer, Jonathan PIT RB - 11 22.01

Gerhart, Toby MIN RB - 9 18.01

Grant, Ryan GBP RB (P) - 8 11.12

Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB - 9 3.04

Obviously, RBs were not a priority for me. I am uneasy about taking RBs early with such a short shelf life in general. One thing that hurt me here is that most of the leagues I play in only require 1 RB, while this league starts 2. I love Stewart and think he could be a 1st rounder in startups next year. From that point, I was taking BPA, which was not usually RB. I planned to take some cheap vets later in the draft that could be reliable in a starting role in 2011. Getting Grant and the Colts RBs in the 11th was good value and both Grant and Addai should be adequate starters.I wanted a couple of cheap young backups. Gerhart and Dwyer have proved nothing in the NFL but were at once thought of as highly rated prospects and I hope they get a shot at some point.

WR-

Brown, Antonio PIT WR - 11 23.12

Bryant, Dez DAL WR (P) - 5 2.10

Burress, Plaxico FA* WR - - 21.12

Cobb, Randall GBP WR ® - 8 8.03

Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR - 6 1.12

Jones, James GBP WR - 8 15.12

Jones, Julio ATL WR ® (P) - 8 4.01

Ochocinco, Chad CIN WR - 7 16.01

Royal, Eddie DEN WR (Q) - 6 19.12

Sanders, Emmanuel PIT WR - 11 8.01

Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR (O) - 6 14.01

White, Blair IND WR - 11 26.01

I went WR heavy early with Fitz, Bryant and Julio. After taking Bryant and Jones as 2 of my first 4 picks, I was locked in with the plan to go youth heavy. Those 3 also allowed me to wait a while before grabbing Cobb and Sanders, 2 of my favorites. In the later rounds, I added some vets that could be solid starters, as I did with RB, in Ocho, Plax, Jones and Royal. I certainly have not given up on Thomas and with this group of WRs, I can afford to wait on him.

TE-

Celek, Brent PHI TE - 7 17.12

Hernandez, Aaron NEP TE (Q) - 7 10.06

A pretty weak group compared to most teams, but Hernandez is another favorite of mine.

Likely starters for 2011:

Matt Ryan

Jonathan Stewart

Joseph Addai

Larry Fitzgerald

Chad Ochocinco

Dez Bryant

Julio Jones

Aaron Hernandez

This is likely a team that will miss out on the playoffs in year 1, but I like the chances in the future.

 

[No Way Jose]

Lol, I was so pissed when you took Ryan and Freeman back to back. I literally cussed at my phone when that came across. For a guy that was waiting til the 7th to take a QB, that was not what I wanted to see. I really like you WR's too. Well done.

 

[PRAE]

.

 

[sihaokills]

I am stacking at WR and RB.... Took a new turn by taking Dallas Clark. My roster thru 6 rounds is Jahvid Best, Rashard Mendenhall, Roddy White, Brandon Marshall, Percy Harvin, and Dallas Clark. I think it's a nice start

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Just caught up on this entire thread....took hours haha. But great discussion.

I just think its hilarious that after being so abrasive, and then challenging everyone to start/join this league to "walk the walk", Eaglesfan7 up and disappeared??? Talk about losing all credibility for the future.

 

[jeter23]

Just caught up on this entire thread....took hours haha. But great discussion.I just think its hilarious that after being so abrasive, and then challenging everyone to start/join this league to "walk the walk", Eaglesfan7 up and disappeared??? Talk about losing all credibility for the future.

He has not logged in to any of his leagues or here at FBG. We just hope he is okay.

 

[mcintyre1]

Still drafting a new dynasty startup (my first in years), decided to go Elite WR route and see what fell to me, but I'm not crazy so far with the results. WR value fell to me for the first 3 rounds, but my strategy after round 4 has had to adapt to the runs that have happened, and I'm not crazy about the results yet.

12 team standard scoring PPR league (4pt/TD for QBs), Start 1QB 2RB 2WR 2RB/WR/TE 1 TE.

You can start up to 4 RBs in this league, but drafting out of the 8 hole I just didn't like what was available to me at RB. Here's my team so far:

1.08 Calvin Johnson

2.05 Greg Jennings

3.08 Miles Austin

4.05 Lagarette Blount

5.08 Sam Bradford

6.05 Tony Romo

7.08 Anquan Boldin

In review of my draft so far, I feel that Blount was a reach, but the stock of RBs was completely bare and elite WRs were hard to come by at that point. RBs available at the pick: Turner, D Williams (wanted him, but was cute and thought he'd drop to my 5th), Moreno (not a fan), Lynch (too much of a headcase and too much inconsistency).

When I took Blount, he was the 19th RB off the board, which now that I think about it, is probably about right. And with the possibility to start up to 4 RBs, he wasn't going to drop to my 6th-7th like I would have preferred to take him.

Ultimately though, I feel that I shouldn't have freaked out about the RBs flying off the shelves as much as I did, as I let Sidney Rice slip through my hands as my #4 WR when he went at 5.04 before my 5.08 pick.

I got some heat from another owner for drafting Bradford over Romo/Brady/Schaub/Ryan, but I couldn't be higher on Bradford in the future. He's the kind of guy that makes pedestrian WRs into good players, and if the Rams make a splash in FA for a name WR, I think Bradford put up Top 7ish numbers this year, let alone for the future. His upside is sky high.

Then, I got more flack for taking Romo with my next pick when we only start 1 QB.

Here was my thinking with the choice: When I took Romo, here were the WRs and RBs taken right after him: Santonio Holmes, Shonn Greene, Brandon Lloyd, Ryan Grant, Shane Vereen. Would I rather have a top 5 QB as trade bait, or one of those guys? I'll take the trade bait all day every day. I was re-affirmed a bit in my decision when an owner offered to trade for Romo almost immediately after I selected him (I'm holding him until the end of the draft to see how things shake out).

I don't know, any opinions on this draft so far?