Draft Strategy For "Run N Shoot" Lineup Option (1 Viewer)

[kyoun1e]

My league is a bit unique. It's PPR, with 6pts per QB TD pass, and then all the usuals. What sets it apart is the different lineup options...lots of flexibility:

1. Run N Shoot: 1 RB, 4 WR, 1 TE.

2. Pro Set: 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE

3. Jumbo: 2 RB, 2 WR, 2 TE

4. Wishbone: 3 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE

I'm a RB guy at heart and have historically gobbled up RBs in order to take advantage of the "wishbone" lineup option. That said, RB "bust rates," the emergence of RB by committee, the PPR rule, and a pass happy NFL has me thinking I should change my stripes.

I'm picking 11th in a 12 team league. I'd be curious how the sharks would approach this draft.

Option 1: Load up on stud WRs to take advantage of the Run N Shoot option. Decent chance I can land 2 of D. Bryant, AJ Green, B. Marshall, J. Jones at picks 11 and 14.

Option 2: Load up on RBs to take advantage of the wishbone option. While not one of the top 5 RB studs, good chance I can get two of M. Ball, L. Bell, G. Bernardi, A. Foster.

Optoin 3: Take best player available to remain flexible and leverage all lineup options. In this case, a stud WR and then one of the above RBs probably makes sense.

Tough for me to avoid RBs early. The quality runs out quick. And I still believe on a week to week basis, predicting performance due to matchups is easiest for RBs (while WR is a bit more random).

Thoughts?

Thanks

 

[MattFancy]

Will be following this one closely. One of my leagues just switched to this same set up. We start 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE and 3 W/R/T. Opens up a ton of possibilities come draft day. We don't know ahead of time where we will be picking, which makes a little tougher to mock and see what I could get. But my strategy going in will be to try and get a top 5 RB and if not, just load up on WRs for the 1st 3 rounds and then take a stab at RB for my next 2 or 3 picks. In a PPR league, if I can snag 2 top 10 WRs, and a 3rd that will be top 15, I'd be pretty happy with that. Especially knowing I can start all 3 of them every single week.

 

[LittlePhatty]

Can you change your option each week? i.e. Run n' Shoot one week, Wishbone the next?

Super flex spots usually means RB value goes way up, but drafting at 11 I'd go WR/WR unless a top 5 RB was still around somehow.

 

[Quez]

So your league is 1RB/ 2WR / 2TE / 2 Flex

 

[Ilov80s]

So your league is 1RB/ 2WR / 2TE / 2 Flex

Where do you get 2TE from?

 

[Ilov80s]

If Graham is there, obviously take him. He probably won't be. In that case I would go with some combo of Dez/DT/Green/Marshall. Then at 3/4, the best options IMO would be a combo of Roddy/Patterson/VJax/Ryan Matthews...depending on your personal opinion on those guys.

It gives you a very likely chance to have 4 of the top 15 WRs or 3 of the top 15 WRs and still have a top 12 RB.

 

[ebsteelers]

1) Marshall

2) Downtown Brown

3) Cruz

4) White

5) Bishop

6) Pierre

.... super bowl champs

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

Will be following this one closely. One of my leagues just switched to this same set up. We start 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE and 3 W/R/T. Opens up a ton of possibilities come draft day. We don't know ahead of time where we will be picking, which makes a little tougher to mock and see what I could get. But my strategy going in will be to try and get a top 5 RB and if not, just load up on WRs for the 1st 3 rounds and then take a stab at RB for my next 2 or 3 picks. In a PPR league, if I can snag 2 top 10 WRs, and a 3rd that will be top 15, I'd be pretty happy with that. Especially knowing I can start all 3 of them every single week.

This is going to sound crazy, but in this particular league structure I'd back the truck up on elite TEs. With a pick in the 5-6 range I'd honestly give serious thought to starting my draft Graham - Gronk - J. Thomas. Each of them ought to deliver significantly more VBD than you'd be likely to get out of any 2nd- or 3rd-round RB / WR, and you ought to have no trouble landing a decent every-week option at RB like Rice, Ellington, or Jennings in round 4. PPR-friendly WRs are a dime a dozen in Rounds 5+ and I wouldn't bother with a WR until then, honestly.

 

[Late225]

So your league is 1RB/ 2WR / 2TE / 2 Flex

Where do you get 2TE from?

Lol. 1rb/2wr/1te/2 flex - seems fairly normal.

 

[kyoun1e]

So your league is 1RB/ 2WR / 2TE / 2 Flex

Where do you get 2TE from?

No it's more like 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 3 FLEX

 

[kyoun1e]

Will be following this one closely. One of my leagues just switched to this same set up. We start 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE and 3 W/R/T. Opens up a ton of possibilities come draft day. We don't know ahead of time where we will be picking, which makes a little tougher to mock and see what I could get. But my strategy going in will be to try and get a top 5 RB and if not, just load up on WRs for the 1st 3 rounds and then take a stab at RB for my next 2 or 3 picks. In a PPR league, if I can snag 2 top 10 WRs, and a 3rd that will be top 15, I'd be pretty happy with that. Especially knowing I can start all 3 of them every single week.

This is going to sound crazy, but in this particular league structure I'd back the truck up on elite TEs. With a pick in the 5-6 range I'd honestly give serious thought to starting my draft Graham - Gronk - J. Thomas. Each of them ought to deliver significantly more VBD than you'd be likely to get out of any 2nd- or 3rd-round RB / WR, and you ought to have no trouble landing a decent every-week option at RB like Rice, Ellington, or Jennings in round 4. PPR-friendly WRs are a dime a dozen in Rounds 5+ and I wouldn't bother with a WR until then, honestly.

Interesting thought.

I actually just traded my first two picks so instead of 11/14, I now have 7 and 18. This will give me an opportunity to grab either Lacy/Forte, Megatron, or J. Graham. Love that. With pick 18 I could then probably grab B. Marshall who seems to slip, or even Gronkowski.

If I grabbed Lacy or Forte, that may make me more likely to go run n shoot and load up on WRs/TEs.

I wonder if the draft dominator would help trying to figure out what the best approach would be here.

 

[MattFancy]

Will be following this one closely. One of my leagues just switched to this same set up. We start 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE and 3 W/R/T. Opens up a ton of possibilities come draft day. We don't know ahead of time where we will be picking, which makes a little tougher to mock and see what I could get. But my strategy going in will be to try and get a top 5 RB and if not, just load up on WRs for the 1st 3 rounds and then take a stab at RB for my next 2 or 3 picks. In a PPR league, if I can snag 2 top 10 WRs, and a 3rd that will be top 15, I'd be pretty happy with that. Especially knowing I can start all 3 of them every single week.

This is going to sound crazy, but in this particular league structure I'd back the truck up on elite TEs. With a pick in the 5-6 range I'd honestly give serious thought to starting my draft Graham - Gronk - J. Thomas. Each of them ought to deliver significantly more VBD than you'd be likely to get out of any 2nd- or 3rd-round RB / WR, and you ought to have no trouble landing a decent every-week option at RB like Rice, Ellington, or Jennings in round 4. PPR-friendly WRs are a dime a dozen in Rounds 5+ and I wouldn't bother with a WR until then, honestly.

I've thought about the possibilty of starting that way. Maybe go TE/WR/TE to start. This league will be the one that I research the most for the draft. My strategy will probably change a ton as the draft moves on since there is so much flexibility to how to make a lineup every week.

 

[kyoun1e]

Will be following this one closely. One of my leagues just switched to this same set up. We start 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE and 3 W/R/T. Opens up a ton of possibilities come draft day. We don't know ahead of time where we will be picking, which makes a little tougher to mock and see what I could get. But my strategy going in will be to try and get a top 5 RB and if not, just load up on WRs for the 1st 3 rounds and then take a stab at RB for my next 2 or 3 picks. In a PPR league, if I can snag 2 top 10 WRs, and a 3rd that will be top 15, I'd be pretty happy with that. Especially knowing I can start all 3 of them every single week.

This is going to sound crazy, but in this particular league structure I'd back the truck up on elite TEs. With a pick in the 5-6 range I'd honestly give serious thought to starting my draft Graham - Gronk - J. Thomas. Each of them ought to deliver significantly more VBD than you'd be likely to get out of any 2nd- or 3rd-round RB / WR, and you ought to have no trouble landing a decent every-week option at RB like Rice, Ellington, or Jennings in round 4. PPR-friendly WRs are a dime a dozen in Rounds 5+ and I wouldn't bother with a WR until then, honestly.

I've thought about the possibilty of starting that way. Maybe go TE/WR/TE to start. This league will be the one that I research the most for the draft. My strategy will probably change a ton as the draft moves on since there is so much flexibility to how to make a lineup every week.

What is the logic behind a front end loaded TE strategy?

You'll kill your opponents at the TE spot, but wouldn't you lose points at the RB and WR positions?

At #7 in a 12 teamer, I could easily see Graham dropping to me in round 1. Round 2 could be best available RB/WR and then J. Thomas could be there in round 3. Maybe Gronk if he doesn't get on the field at all during the preseason.

Still, I'd be curious what some simulated data would say here.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

So your league is 1RB/ 2WR / 2TE / 2 Flex

Where do you get 2TE from?

No it's more like 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 3 FLEX

??

Every combo you listed has a total of 6 players and requires a minimum of 1 RB, 2WR and 1 TE. Is there another Flex position at all times, in addition to the 6 starters you referenced?

I would probably start by taking the projections for all RB, WR and TE and determining VBD among all of them based on the 73rd-lowest scoring player and see what that looks like. so I would basically take option 3.

My guess is that based on your draft slot, loading up on WR is the best play, but I would play around with different VBD combinations for who you expect to be available.

 

[Ilov80s]

Will be following this one closely. One of my leagues just switched to this same set up. We start 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE and 3 W/R/T. Opens up a ton of possibilities come draft day. We don't know ahead of time where we will be picking, which makes a little tougher to mock and see what I could get. But my strategy going in will be to try and get a top 5 RB and if not, just load up on WRs for the 1st 3 rounds and then take a stab at RB for my next 2 or 3 picks. In a PPR league, if I can snag 2 top 10 WRs, and a 3rd that will be top 15, I'd be pretty happy with that. Especially knowing I can start all 3 of them every single week.

This is going to sound crazy, but in this particular league structure I'd back the truck up on elite TEs. With a pick in the 5-6 range I'd honestly give serious thought to starting my draft Graham - Gronk - J. Thomas. Each of them ought to deliver significantly more VBD than you'd be likely to get out of any 2nd- or 3rd-round RB / WR, and you ought to have no trouble landing a decent every-week option at RB like Rice, Ellington, or Jennings in round 4. PPR-friendly WRs are a dime a dozen in Rounds 5+ and I wouldn't bother with a WR until then, honestly.

I've thought about the possibilty of starting that way. Maybe go TE/WR/TE to start. This league will be the one that I research the most for the draft. My strategy will probably change a ton as the draft moves on since there is so much flexibility to how to make a lineup every week.

What is the logic behind a front end loaded TE strategy?

You'll kill your opponents at the TE spot, but wouldn't you lose points at the RB and WR positions?

At #7 in a 12 teamer, I could easily see Graham dropping to me in round 1. Round 2 could be best available RB/WR and then J. Thomas could be there in round 3. Maybe Gronk if he doesn't get on the field at all during the preseason.

Still, I'd be curious what some simulated data would say here.

The front loaded TE only works IMO with Graham/Gronk because they both have a reasonable chance to perform equal to the top 6 WRs.

 

[bigmiiiiike]

Will be following this one closely. One of my leagues just switched to this same set up. We start 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE and 3 W/R/T. Opens up a ton of possibilities come draft day. We don't know ahead of time where we will be picking, which makes a little tougher to mock and see what I could get. But my strategy going in will be to try and get a top 5 RB and if not, just load up on WRs for the 1st 3 rounds and then take a stab at RB for my next 2 or 3 picks. In a PPR league, if I can snag 2 top 10 WRs, and a 3rd that will be top 15, I'd be pretty happy with that. Especially knowing I can start all 3 of them every single week.

This is going to sound crazy, but in this particular league structure I'd back the truck up on elite TEs. With a pick in the 5-6 range I'd honestly give serious thought to starting my draft Graham - Gronk - J. Thomas. Each of them ought to deliver significantly more VBD than you'd be likely to get out of any 2nd- or 3rd-round RB / WR, and you ought to have no trouble landing a decent every-week option at RB like Rice, Ellington, or Jennings in round 4. PPR-friendly WRs are a dime a dozen in Rounds 5+ and I wouldn't bother with a WR until then, honestly.

I've thought about the possibilty of starting that way. Maybe go TE/WR/TE to start. This league will be the one that I research the most for the draft. My strategy will probably change a ton as the draft moves on since there is so much flexibility to how to make a lineup every week.

What is the logic behind a front end loaded TE strategy?

You'll kill your opponents at the TE spot, but wouldn't you lose points at the RB and WR positions?

At #7 in a 12 teamer, I could easily see Graham dropping to me in round 1. Round 2 could be best available RB/WR and then J. Thomas could be there in round 3. Maybe Gronk if he doesn't get on the field at all during the preseason.

Still, I'd be curious what some simulated data would say here.

The front loaded TE only works IMO with Graham/Gronk because they both have a reasonable chance to perform equal to the top 6 WRs.

Agree with this. Not saying you have to go front loaded TE per se, but if you just go BPA, and Graham happens to be BPA in round 1 and Gronk happens to be BPA in round 2, then I wouldn't be afraid about starting TE/TE. Do your projections, and figure out who is going to get you the most points. Draft Dominator should help you with VBD, but because you have such positional flexibility, it really comes down to total points. If you project Graham and Gronk each for 15 TDs, they'll likely be your best VBD picks in the 1st and 2nd rounds. If you project each for 8 TDs, then neither will be on your team. Don't worry so much about what position they play and focus on total points and VBD.

 

[Ilov80s]

The thing with Gronk is his health though. I am not comfortable using a 2nd round pick on a guy that isn't taking any contact yet.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

What is the logic behind a front end loaded TE strategy?

You'll kill your opponents at the TE spot, but wouldn't you lose points at the RB and WR positions?

At #7 in a 12 teamer, I could easily see Graham dropping to me in round 1. Round 2 could be best available RB/WR and then J. Thomas could be there in round 3. Maybe Gronk if he doesn't get on the field at all during the preseason.

Still, I'd be curious what some simulated data would say here.

Part of it's that everyone has to start at least one TE, and the well of reliable point producers at TE dries up fairly quickly after the first 10-12 names. By grabbing, say, 3 of the top 5, you're forcing other teams to trot out TE2-level guys every week and/or play WDIS roulette.

Part of it's that I'd be more confident in finding reliable starters at RB/WR in full-PPR scoring in the mid-rounds (for instance, in my experience pass-catching RBs and possession receivers are significantly undervalued in full-PPR drafts) than I would be in finding one or more go-to TEs there.

And part of it is assuming that I'd be zigging while everyone else is zagging. People are going to adopt very different strategies given all these flex spots, so I'd expect that either RBs or WRs will fly off the board earlier than expected while there will be lots of value at the other position. Going TE-heavy early keeps lots of spots open at both RB and WR so you can take advantage of whatever value falls out later.

 

[Ilov80s]

What is the logic behind a front end loaded TE strategy?

You'll kill your opponents at the TE spot, but wouldn't you lose points at the RB and WR positions?

At #7 in a 12 teamer, I could easily see Graham dropping to me in round 1. Round 2 could be best available RB/WR and then J. Thomas could be there in round 3. Maybe Gronk if he doesn't get on the field at all during the preseason.

Still, I'd be curious what some simulated data would say here.

Part of it's that everyone has to start at least one TE, and the well of reliable point producers at TE dries up fairly quickly after the first 10-12 names. By grabbing, say, 3 of the top 5, you're forcing other teams to trot out TE2-level guys every week and/or play WDIS roulette.

Part of it's that I'd be more confident in finding reliable starters at RB/WR in full-PPR scoring in the mid-rounds (for instance, in my experience pass-catching RBs and possession receivers are significantly undervalued in full-PPR drafts) than I would be in finding one or more go-to TEs there.

And part of it is assuming that I'd be zigging while everyone else is zagging. People are going to adopt very different strategies given all these flex spots, so I'd expect that either RBs or WRs will fly off the board earlier than expected while there will be lots of value at the other position. Going TE-heavy early keeps lots of spots open at both RB and WR so you can take advantage of whatever value falls out later.

That is a really difficult league to draft for because of all the possible lineups. It's like you could have guys drafting as if they are in 2 different leagues. I think you have to take BPA and determine your lineup option after the draft. There's a chance some good values could slip to you if they don't fit other users that have forced themselves into a certain formation.

 

[Hot Diggity Dog]

Will be following this one closely. One of my leagues just switched to this same set up. We start 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE and 3 W/R/T. Opens up a ton of possibilities come draft day. We don't know ahead of time where we will be picking, which makes a little tougher to mock and see what I could get. But my strategy going in will be to try and get a top 5 RB and if not, just load up on WRs for the 1st 3 rounds and then take a stab at RB for my next 2 or 3 picks. In a PPR league, if I can snag 2 top 10 WRs, and a 3rd that will be top 15, I'd be pretty happy with that. Especially knowing I can start all 3 of them every single week.

This is going to sound crazy, but in this particular league structure I'd back the truck up on elite TEs. With a pick in the 5-6 range I'd honestly give serious thought to starting my draft Graham - Gronk - J. Thomas. Each of them ought to deliver significantly more VBD than you'd be likely to get out of any 2nd- or 3rd-round RB / WR, and you ought to have no trouble landing a decent every-week option at RB like Rice, Ellington, or Jennings in round 4. PPR-friendly WRs are a dime a dozen in Rounds 5+ and I wouldn't bother with a WR until then, honestly.

Interesting thought.

I actually just traded my first two picks so instead of 11/14, I now have 7 and 18. This will give me an opportunity to grab either Lacy/Forte, Megatron, or J. Graham. Love that. With pick 18 I could then probably grab B. Marshall who seems to slip, or even Gronkowski.

If I grabbed Lacy or Forte, that may make me more likely to go run n shoot and load up on WRs/TEs.

I wonder if the draft dominator would help trying to figure out what the best approach would be here.

Lacy would be great as a single back because he has a good handcuff in starks, that you can get later after you do a run on wrs. I would draft with the run and shoot in mind just because wrs tend not to get hurt as much as rbs.

 

[Dacomish]

We went to something like this after rule changes this year, we can start:

1Qb, 1 RB, 2WR, 1 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex for RB/WR/TE and 1 Flex for WR/TE. We had an owner last year that went exclusively with a lineup that contained a run and shoot:

Stafford/Spiller/Megatron/J.Jones (until injury), AJ Green and Witten. This year he added Tate to the starting lineup or Hopkins as another WR. Needless to say he killed everyone last year and the blizzard in the playoffs killed his chance at the bowl (he got Desean Jackson last year after Julio went down in a trade).

I have looked at what he did and through trades and our draft last month I have the following for my run & Shoot off:

A.Rodgers/Lynch/A.Brown/Fitzgerald/Roddy White and Olsen (It's a 1PPR/IDP league as well)

So Yes I like the Run and Shoot, Too many years married to the RB is king argument.