Klimtology
Footballguy
Draft is Randomized One Hour Prior to Draft Time.
I'm thinking:
RB/WR/TE/RB/WR/QB
anyone have any QB sleepers?

I'm thinking:
RB/WR/TE/RB/WR/QB
anyone have any QB sleepers?

Looking at the ADP in PPR, at QB Dak Prescott is a pick that could work out if he is still there. Forget his post season record (irrelevant to fantasy), he usually puts up a solid regular season. Good luck with your draft.12 Team Flex PPR
No.Thanks!
What are your thoughts on Aaron Rogers?
i wouldn't wanna be starting the year with him as my qb1. i view him as not draft worthy in a 1 qb 12 teamer. wire guy you may pickup for a bye. it's been a long time since he had a good year. his last season as a packer was fairly mediocre. he's now older and coming off an injury that likely saps a lot of his mobility. and he's on a team that will run and play d in a conservative fashion to try and win games. rodgers just has to manage and not lose games and i think he can do that. but i don't see him racking up the stats like he used toThanks!
What are your thoughts on Aaron Rogers?
The correct answer.No.Thanks!
What are your thoughts on Aaron Rogers?
Don't go in with an already decided position plan. You will miss out on value and mistakes from other drafters. Take BPA for at least 6 or 7 rounds (probably longer). Don't force positions for specific rounds.I'm thinking:
RB/WR/TE/RB/WR/QB
I'd be interested in your TE & QB targets in rounds 3 & 6. Only you know this league's tendencies, but if everybody waits on QB I'd reach a bit for Lawrence in the 9th & take Bo Nix late.Draft is Randomized One Hour Prior to Draft Time.
I'm thinking:
RB/WR/TE/RB/WR/QB
anyone have any QB sleepers?
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i kinda hate that pick. you'll be looking at ajb/wilson for wr or a rb like jt, bark, or gibbs. could turn into a value if one of the top 8 guys fall like chase if people are worried about the holdout. on the 2nd i doubt many or any of those guys are around but maybe. otherwise it's like puka or something for rd 2I drew the 9th pick.
Any suggestions?
All-in on AJB unless a better WR falls to you.I drew the 9th pick.
Any suggestions?
I'd probably hope for one of these 8 to to be there:I drew the 9th pick.
Any suggestions?
this is kinda the status quo. i've had a few from that spot and took ajb in one and taylor in another. maybe taylor in two. if one of those top 8 fall pick them and celebrate. if they don't it really comes down to your preference. any of ajb, wilson, taylor, gibbs, or bark are fine picks in that spot. up to you who you like better. small chance gibbs or bark makes it back to you in 2nd. i emphasize the chance being small thoughI'd probably hope for one of these 8 to to be there:I drew the 9th pick.
Any suggestions?
Lamb
Hill
CMC
Chase
ASB
Jefferson
Bijan
Hall
If gone, then choose one of:
Brown/Wilson/Taylor - leaning Brown then Taylor.
My Team NO. | PLAYER | ROUND |
---|---|---|
9 | Jonathan Taylor Ind, RB | 1 |
16 | Puka Nacua LAR, WR | 2 |
33 | Travis Kelce KC, TE | 3 |
40 | Joe Mixon Hou, RB | 4 |
57 | Dak Prescott Dal, QB | 5 |
64 | James Conner Ari, RB | 6 |
81 | Amari Cooper Cle, WR | 7 |
88 | Marquise Brown KC, WR | 8 |
105 | Brandin Cooks Dal, WR | 9 |
112 | Rome Odunze Chi, WR | 10 |
129 | Ravens D/ST Bal, D/ST | 11 |
136 | Jerry Jeudy Cle, WR | 12 |
153 | Tyler Conklin NYJ, TE | 13 |
160 | Geno Smith Sea, QB | 14 |
177 | DeMario Douglas NE, WR | 15 |
184 | Jake Moody SF, K | 16 |
To be polite... These aren't picks I would have made.What does everyone think?
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Looks very solid to me.What does everyone think?
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Other than Taylor in the 1st I tend to agree. But what do we know?To be polite... These aren't picks I would have made.What does everyone think?
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Generally think it’s ok. I would have taken a WR where Mixon went but at least you only took 3 RBs so didn’t go overboard .Don’t love the Cooks pick either. Odunze, Conner and Cooper were your best picks imo.
My Team
NO.PLAYER ROUND 9 Jonathan Taylor Ind, RB 1 16 Puka Nacua LAR, WR 2 33 Travis Kelce KC, TE 3 40 Joe Mixon Hou, RB 4 57 Dak Prescott Dal, QB 5 64 James Conner Ari, RB 6 81 Amari Cooper Cle, WR 7 88 Marquise Brown KC, WR 8 105 Brandin Cooks Dal, WR 9 112 Rome Odunze Chi, WR 10 129 Ravens D/ST Bal, D/ST 11 136 Jerry Jeudy Cle, WR 12 153 Tyler Conklin NYJ, TE 13 160 Geno Smith Sea, QB 14 177 DeMario Douglas NE, WR 15 184 Jake Moody SF, K 16
Agree on waiting on QB. In general, I'm happy with any of the top 10. I'm usually trying to get one of Dak, Love, or Kyler if he falls, which is more often than I expect. I'll take one of the top guys if they slide a considerable amount. I got Hurts in a work league in the 6th. I'm in an IDP league where Lamar fell to the 6th, though after seeing Burrow in the 11th and Love in the 13th, I regretted it.I have waited in almost every draft. QB is so deep this year that in 1 QB leagues it's just giving value away to reach in the 1st 6 rounds. Sure, it's nice having an elite guy - they will perform every week at a high level. Not saying they won't.
But this is a fantastic year for the QB freefall.
I wouldn't target ARod unless as a desperation QB2. There are guys at his ADP with much higher upside. Jayden Daniels is a solid target in the 8th. Purdy still gets no respect but with the YAC guys the 49ers have in Deebo & CMC dump-offs, Aiyuk back, + maybe another weapon in Pearsall? Yeah - he's going in the 8th, after dudes he out-scored last year. I also really like Murray at his ADP - if you wanna wait but don't wanna wait that long, he's going around pick 93 (mid-7th), while Love is going in roughly the same range.
And if you get hosed trying to wait, you can always pair up a TLaw (10th-11th) with a Geno (14th) and play mix & match. In that scenario I'd also grab a late wildcard like a Levis or Stafford and just run with the hot hand. These are guys who could provide excellent weekly production but take a little more management & lucky guesses to get the right play every week.
I used to do QB Freefall all the time. Last couple years the landscape changed a bit and I committed higher resources to the position. This year the freefall is back, baby.
It’s not bad. Effectively you had the 9th pick—which means you were towards the end of the odd rounds and towards the beginning of the even rounds. I don’t mind Taylor at the end of the 1st, and if you want to get Kelce—getting him towards the end of the 3rd is not bad. I just don’t know if I would target getting both a TE and a QB within the first 5 rounds. I think Dak will be solid—but I’m not crazy about your WR situation. I’m not a big fan of Cooks and I think Brown might be a question mark. I probably would have waited to get a QB in that Brown/Cooks area (I’d be curious to see what QB’s were available in that range—maybe Goff, Caleb)—and would have drafted a WR or an RB where you drafted Dak. Overall—you have a team that I think you can work with—but while I think its cool to have an overall draft strategy—I don’t think that you should lock yourself into: I’m picking these positions in these rounds regardless of what is happening in my draft. Every draft is different, every draft position is different—it sounds like you went into the draft with that cemented strategy regardless of what your draft position was and regardless of the ebbs and flows of the actual draft.
My Team
NO.PLAYER ROUND 9 Jonathan Taylor Ind, RB 1 16 Puka Nacua LAR, WR 2 33 Travis Kelce KC, TE 3 40 Joe Mixon Hou, RB 4 57 Dak Prescott Dal, QB 5 64 James Conner Ari, RB 6 81 Amari Cooper Cle, WR 7 88 Marquise Brown KC, WR 8 105 Brandin Cooks Dal, WR 9 112 Rome Odunze Chi, WR 10 129 Ravens D/ST Bal, D/ST 11 136 Jerry Jeudy Cle, WR 12 153 Tyler Conklin NYJ, TE 13 160 Geno Smith Sea, QB 14 177 DeMario Douglas NE, WR 15 184 Jake Moody SF, K 16
Your first 3 picks were fine and then things went sidewaysWhat does everyone think?
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Stuck to my guns with the freefall. Landed Kyler Murray in the 9th tonight, 12-team league.I have waited in almost every draft. QB is so deep this year that in 1 QB leagues it's just giving value away to reach in the 1st 6 rounds. Sure, it's nice having an elite guy - they will perform every week at a high level. Not saying they won't.
But this is a fantastic year for the QB freefall.
I wouldn't target ARod unless as a desperation QB2. There are guys at his ADP with much higher upside. Jayden Daniels is a solid target in the 8th. Purdy still gets no respect but with the YAC guys the 49ers have in Deebo & CMC dump-offs, Aiyuk back, + maybe another weapon in Pearsall? Yeah - he's going in the 8th, after dudes he out-scored last year. I also really like Murray at his ADP - if you wanna wait but don't wanna wait that long, he's going around pick 93 (mid-7th), while Love is going in roughly the same range.
And if you get hosed trying to wait, you can always pair up a TLaw (10th-11th) with a Geno (14th) and play mix & match. In that scenario I'd also grab a late wildcard like a Levis or Stafford and just run with the hot hand. These are guys who could provide excellent weekly production but take a little more management & lucky guesses to get the right play every week.
I used to do QB Freefall all the time. Last couple years the landscape changed a bit and I committed higher resources to the position. This year the freefall is back, baby.
Never know, but I think you're making a good post draft move. I would opt for Tyrone Tracy jr. then Ray Davis or Kimani Vidal if either of them is there. At back up TE I would check your wire for Jonnu Smith, perhaps Mike Gesicki, I also like Luke Musgrave.Just picked up the RAvens RB Ali. Good Move?
If I don't know my slot I absolutely do not try to plan out when I will draft certain positions. Even if I do know, I tend to think in tiers. For example, I'm drafting out of the 3-spot in a 14-teamer tomorrow. I know I will almost never consider onesie positions for the first three rounds because in a bigger league that could leave me in a bad position.* But when I get to the 4/5 turn I may start looking at the likes of McBride or Andrews if they're still around. But if not I'll likely wait. Same with QBs at the 6/7 turn.Don't go in with an already decided position plan. You will miss out on value and mistakes from other drafters. Take BPA for at least 6 or 7 rounds (probably longer). Don't force positions for specific rounds.I'm thinking:
RB/WR/TE/RB/WR/QB
3rd to last team in a 12-team IDP to take a QB.
Kyler Murray in the 9th.
love it.![]()
Sometimes a plan can go right, and then also go wrong - I like getting him as the QB8. He had more of a track record, maybe better targets, more shootouts.3rd to last team in a 12-team IDP to take a QB.
Kyler Murray in the 9th.
love it.![]()
Thats right around where I landed him in a draft last night(he was QB8 taken, IIRC). Felt pretty good about it at the time.
Given how rest of that draft went, I basically wish I'd waited even longer and been the last guy to draft one and took Daniels instead.
Have had two drafts so far, both from the 5 spot. I haven't loved either set of results, overall, TBH. They look competitive, but not particularly daunting. Have my third, and final, draft tonight. Fully expecting the 5th spot again.![]()
In the 6th? Murray?Draft is Randomized One Hour Prior to Draft Time.
I'm thinking:
RB/WR/TE/RB/WR/QB
anyone have any QB sleepers?
![]()
It’s a bit early, I agree.In the 6th? Murray?
Really? I took him in the 6th in a 12-teamer last week and was happy that he lasted that long. I've seen him going more like 4/5 in most of my mocks.It’s a bit early, I agree.In the 6th? Murray?
The league I have him I got him in the 9th. Now, that’s IDP, but only 12 defensive players had gone off the board. So figure 1 full round less, so 8th in a standard 1 QB 12-team.Really? I took him in the 6th in a 12-teamer last week and was happy that he lasted that long. I've seen him going more like 4/5 in most of my mocks.It’s a bit early, I agree.In the 6th? Murray?
Here were the other QBs taken in that draft (standard QB scoring):
- Tua: 3-4 (Miami homer)
- Mahomes: 3-10
- Allen: 3-11
- Hurts: 3-12
- Richardson: 4-10
- CJ Stroud: 5-2
- Murray: 6-4
- Burrow: 6-7
- Daniels: 7-1
- Dak: 7-7
- Love: 7-8
Are you drafting on a platform other than Yahoo? That could have something to do with it. I think his ADP there is much higher than in other places.The league I have him I got him in the 9th. Now, that’s IDP, but only 12 defensive players had gone off the board. So figure 1 full round less, so 8th in a standard 1 QB 12-team.Really? I took him in the 6th in a 12-teamer last week and was happy that he lasted that long. I've seen him going more like 4/5 in most of my mocks.It’s a bit early, I agree.In the 6th? Murray?
Here were the other QBs taken in that draft (standard QB scoring):
- Tua: 3-4 (Miami homer)
- Mahomes: 3-10
- Allen: 3-11
- Hurts: 3-12
- Richardson: 4-10
- CJ Stroud: 5-2
- Murray: 6-4
- Burrow: 6-7
- Daniels: 7-1
- Dak: 7-7
- Love: 7-8
I’d consider the 7th a slight reach.
Yes, that was a live draft in my living room with 12 seasoned veterans of 20+ years in the hobby & a whooooooole lot of bourbon & beer. Site ADP goes out the window.Are you drafting on a platform other than Yahoo? That could have something to do with it. I think his ADP there is much higher than in other places.
In my 14-teamer tonight, he went 5.05
This right there is the reason I'm high on him this year. I love it when there's a guy who you have no reason to think isn't still good, but his value is being artificially depressed by recency bias. Kyler missed half the year last year, and even though he played well when he returned it was on a forgettable AZ team that no one ever saw because their games were all buried in the 4:05 window. There is a definite injury risk, but beyond that I think the rushing gives him a good floor and he also has a lot of upside6 is fine on Yahoo if that's how they push his name up the board - Murray has a very solid shot at QB3-4-5 for FF with his rushing ability - people forget what kind of points he can put up. I'm excited to see if his reported extra work pays off. Wish I had more shares.
if drafting Yahoo, the house rankings are TOTAL crap.Site ADP goes out the window.
No idea of the inner workings at Yahoo (or any other site), but I always assumed it was based on actual ADP from all the drafts they host on their platformif drafting Yahoo, the house rankings are TOTAL crap.Site ADP goes out the window.
I think they use a computer regression model to predict the stats, but those regression models do an especially poor job when players switch teams or when teams make personell moves that should help a certain player produce better
ie. if a team with a poor line acquires 2 good free agents and drafts a likely starter(on the line) in the draft I have to believe the run game improves. but that doesnt compute with their regression model.
either way given how bad their rankings actually are (and mostly based on last seasons performance) the good news is if your player isnt likely to creep onto the top page where it lists the top players, then it sort of remains out of mind of the people drafting so you may be able to wait if the player isnt close to being on that visible list.
obviously draft the player if you feel its appropriate to do so. chances are if you have experienced drafters, they likely use the same trick.
Pretty sure it’s based on their initial rankings projections. No idea what they base those on, but it’s not ADP. The 1st draft of the year, there are default rankings.No idea of the inner workings at Yahoo (or any other site), but I always assumed it was based on actual ADP from all the drafts they host on their platform
I dunno. some of their rankings are so bad its hard to believe an actual human would have looked at it because if one would have taken a look they would have tweaked those rankings. I think its a computer model of some sort. it has to be.Pretty sure it’s based on their initial rankings projections. No idea what they base those on, but it’s not ADP. The 1st draft of the year, there are default rankings.No idea of the inner workings at Yahoo (or any other site), but I always assumed it was based on actual ADP from all the drafts they host on their platform
But the point stands that their ranking are trash.
Yeah, initially, but ADPs change over time. I would be shocked if they're not incorporating data from all the drafts they're hosting.Pretty sure it’s based on their initial rankings projections. No idea what they base those on, but it’s not ADP. The 1st draft of the year, there are default rankings.No idea of the inner workings at Yahoo (or any other site), but I always assumed it was based on actual ADP from all the drafts they host on their platform
But the point stands that their ranking are trash.
I didn't say they were being reviewed by humans. They almost certainly aren't (nor should they be; that's what their analysts' rankings are for). What I was saying was that they are incorporating data from actual drafts.I dunno. some of their rankings are so bad its hard to believe an actual human would have looked at it because if one would have taken a look they would have tweaked those rankings. I think its a computer model of some sort. it has to be.
Not mine.Yeah, initially, but ADPs change over time. I would be shocked if they're not incorporating data from all the drafts they're hosting.Pretty sure it’s based on their initial rankings projections. No idea what they base those on, but it’s not ADP. The 1st draft of the year, there are default rankings.No idea of the inner workings at Yahoo (or any other site), but I always assumed it was based on actual ADP from all the drafts they host on their platform
But the point stands that their ranking are trash.
I didn't say they were being reviewed by humans. They almost certainly aren't (nor should they be; that's what their analysts' rankings are for). What I was saying was that they are incorporating data from actual drafts.I dunno. some of their rankings are so bad its hard to believe an actual human would have looked at it because if one would have taken a look they would have tweaked those rankings. I think its a computer model of some sort. it has to be.
And yes, there are a lot of idiots playing fantasy. You ever notice how CMC's start percentage is only 99%, or how even after a huge WW pickup like Puka emerges, his ownership % still seems ridiculously low? That's why. And some of those people might be in your league