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Draft Strategy No Matter Where I'm picking draft tonight (2 Viewers)

jayden daniels is a great excuse to wait on qb. or sometimes you just wait and like dak and love are sitting there in the 10th. i wouldn't lock yourself into a set positionl rotation, especially with it being randomized. i suppose you can by why pass on lamb or tyreek if you get the 3rd spot? let the draft dictate what you do. i do like te in the 3rd when you can get kelce or laporta and that can happen from any spot
 
Thanks!

What are your thoughts on Aaron Rogers?
i wouldn't wanna be starting the year with him as my qb1. i view him as not draft worthy in a 1 qb 12 teamer. wire guy you may pickup for a bye. it's been a long time since he had a good year. his last season as a packer was fairly mediocre. he's now older and coming off an injury that likely saps a lot of his mobility. and he's on a team that will run and play d in a conservative fashion to try and win games. rodgers just has to manage and not lose games and i think he can do that. but i don't see him racking up the stats like he used to
 
I have waited in almost every draft. QB is so deep this year that in 1 QB leagues it's just giving value away to reach in the 1st 6 rounds. Sure, it's nice having an elite guy - they will perform every week at a high level. Not saying they won't.

But this is a fantastic year for the QB freefall.

I wouldn't target ARod unless as a desperation QB2. There are guys at his ADP with much higher upside. Jayden Daniels is a solid target in the 8th. Purdy still gets no respect but with the YAC guys the 49ers have in Deebo & CMC dump-offs, Aiyuk back, + maybe another weapon in Pearsall? Yeah - he's going in the 8th, after dudes he out-scored last year. I also really like Murray at his ADP - if you wanna wait but don't wanna wait that long, he's going around pick 93 (mid-7th), while Love is going in roughly the same range.

And if you get hosed trying to wait, you can always pair up a TLaw (10th-11th) with a Geno (14th) and play mix & match. In that scenario I'd also grab a late wildcard like a Levis or Stafford and just run with the hot hand. These are guys who could provide excellent weekly production but take a little more management & lucky guesses to get the right play every week.

I used to do QB Freefall all the time. Last couple years the landscape changed a bit and I committed higher resources to the position. This year the freefall is back, baby.
 
Draft is Randomized One Hour Prior to Draft Time.

I'm thinking:

RB/WR/TE/RB/WR/QB

anyone have any QB sleepers?

:oldunsure:
I'd be interested in your TE & QB targets in rounds 3 & 6. Only you know this league's tendencies, but if everybody waits on QB I'd reach a bit for Lawrence in the 9th & take Bo Nix late.
 
I drew the 9th pick.

Any suggestions?
i kinda hate that pick. you'll be looking at ajb/wilson for wr or a rb like jt, bark, or gibbs. could turn into a value if one of the top 8 guys fall like chase if people are worried about the holdout. on the 2nd i doubt many or any of those guys are around but maybe. otherwise it's like puka or something for rd 2
 
I drew the 9th pick.

Any suggestions?
I'd probably hope for one of these 8 to to be there:
Lamb
Hill
CMC
Chase
ASB
Jefferson
Bijan
Hall

If gone, then choose one of:
Brown/Wilson/Taylor - leaning Brown then Taylor.
this is kinda the status quo. i've had a few from that spot and took ajb in one and taylor in another. maybe taylor in two. if one of those top 8 fall pick them and celebrate. if they don't it really comes down to your preference. any of ajb, wilson, taylor, gibbs, or bark are fine picks in that spot. up to you who you like better. small chance gibbs or bark makes it back to you in 2nd. i emphasize the chance being small though
 
My Team

NO.
PLAYERROUND
9Jonathan Taylor Ind, RB1
16Puka Nacua LAR, WR2
33Travis Kelce KC, TE3
40Joe Mixon Hou, RB4
57Dak Prescott Dal, QB5
64James Conner Ari, RB6
81Amari Cooper Cle, WR7
88Marquise Brown KC, WR8
105Brandin Cooks Dal, WR9
112Rome Odunze Chi, WR10
129Ravens D/ST Bal, D/ST11
136Jerry Jeudy Cle, WR12
153Tyler Conklin NYJ, TE13
160Geno Smith Sea, QB14
177DeMario Douglas NE, WR15
184Jake Moody SF, K16
 
My Team

NO.
PLAYERROUND
9Jonathan Taylor Ind, RB1
16Puka Nacua LAR, WR2
33Travis Kelce KC, TE3
40Joe Mixon Hou, RB4
57Dak Prescott Dal, QB5
64James Conner Ari, RB6
81Amari Cooper Cle, WR7
88Marquise Brown KC, WR8
105Brandin Cooks Dal, WR9
112Rome Odunze Chi, WR10
129Ravens D/ST Bal, D/ST11
136Jerry Jeudy Cle, WR12
153Tyler Conklin NYJ, TE13
160Geno Smith Sea, QB14
177DeMario Douglas NE, WR15
184Jake Moody SF, K16
Generally think it’s ok. I would have taken a WR where Mixon went but at least you only took 3 RBs so didn’t go overboard .Don’t love the Cooks pick either. Odunze, Conner and Cooper were your best picks imo.
 
I have waited in almost every draft. QB is so deep this year that in 1 QB leagues it's just giving value away to reach in the 1st 6 rounds. Sure, it's nice having an elite guy - they will perform every week at a high level. Not saying they won't.

But this is a fantastic year for the QB freefall.

I wouldn't target ARod unless as a desperation QB2. There are guys at his ADP with much higher upside. Jayden Daniels is a solid target in the 8th. Purdy still gets no respect but with the YAC guys the 49ers have in Deebo & CMC dump-offs, Aiyuk back, + maybe another weapon in Pearsall? Yeah - he's going in the 8th, after dudes he out-scored last year. I also really like Murray at his ADP - if you wanna wait but don't wanna wait that long, he's going around pick 93 (mid-7th), while Love is going in roughly the same range.

And if you get hosed trying to wait, you can always pair up a TLaw (10th-11th) with a Geno (14th) and play mix & match. In that scenario I'd also grab a late wildcard like a Levis or Stafford and just run with the hot hand. These are guys who could provide excellent weekly production but take a little more management & lucky guesses to get the right play every week.

I used to do QB Freefall all the time. Last couple years the landscape changed a bit and I committed higher resources to the position. This year the freefall is back, baby.
Agree on waiting on QB. In general, I'm happy with any of the top 10. I'm usually trying to get one of Dak, Love, or Kyler if he falls, which is more often than I expect. I'll take one of the top guys if they slide a considerable amount. I got Hurts in a work league in the 6th. I'm in an IDP league where Lamar fell to the 6th, though after seeing Burrow in the 11th and Love in the 13th, I regretted it.

Dak finished QB3 last year
Love finished QB5.
Purdy finished QB6.
Goff finished QB7.
Tua QB9.
Baker finished QB10.

I've done drafts across Yahoo, ESPN, Underdog, and Sleeper.

Dak generally goes around QB9
Love QB10
Purdy QB11
Goff and Tua are going like QB13+
Baker closer to QB20.

There's certainly not a big gap from about QB5 through QB10. You can probably say 11 and include Purdy, I just worry about the efficiency coming back to earth.

There may not be that much of a gap even at the top.

I love Josh Allen, have in multiple dynasty leagues. They put more emphasis on the run last year. They don't have an alpha receiver. He held onto QB1 status last year with a lot of rushing TD's and an elite 1st half of the season from Diggs. I've still got him as QB1, but is the gap going to be huge?

Hurts: I still question if the Tush push is used a little less. Hurts is the most important piece to that, but Kelce was the 2nd most important piece. And then the fact that they added Saquon--who may reduce the need to use Hurts at the goal line. Maybe that's totally wrong. But it's a question mark. I've still got him as QB2. But if we see a drop in the rushing TD's, the gap between him and QB10 starts to narrow.

Mahommes--I Think the offense is due for a big bounce back with Worthy and Hollywood opening up the deep game. But he literally just finished behind Dak, Love, Purdy, and Goff last year in terms of total points. How much of a premium are we willing to pay?

Dak has a craptastic RB room and is going to throw it 50x/ game.

Love has one of the best WR rooms in the league. I think we're underrating Reed. I think Watson has 10 TD upside. Doubs is capable of a 1,000 yard season but may be capped due to ball being spread around.

Long story short, unless you're getting some huge discount on one of the top 4 guys, WAIT.
 
My Team

NO.
PLAYERROUND
9Jonathan Taylor Ind, RB1
16Puka Nacua LAR, WR2
33Travis Kelce KC, TE3
40Joe Mixon Hou, RB4
57Dak Prescott Dal, QB5
64James Conner Ari, RB6
81Amari Cooper Cle, WR7
88Marquise Brown KC, WR8
105Brandin Cooks Dal, WR9
112Rome Odunze Chi, WR10
129Ravens D/ST Bal, D/ST11
136Jerry Jeudy Cle, WR12
153Tyler Conklin NYJ, TE13
160Geno Smith Sea, QB14
177DeMario Douglas NE, WR15
184Jake Moody SF, K16
It’s not bad. Effectively you had the 9th pick—which means you were towards the end of the odd rounds and towards the beginning of the even rounds. I don’t mind Taylor at the end of the 1st, and if you want to get Kelce—getting him towards the end of the 3rd is not bad. I just don’t know if I would target getting both a TE and a QB within the first 5 rounds. I think Dak will be solid—but I’m not crazy about your WR situation. I’m not a big fan of Cooks and I think Brown might be a question mark. I probably would have waited to get a QB in that Brown/Cooks area (I’d be curious to see what QB’s were available in that range—maybe Goff, Caleb)—and would have drafted a WR or an RB where you drafted Dak. Overall—you have a team that I think you can work with—but while I think its cool to have an overall draft strategy—I don’t think that you should lock yourself into: I’m picking these positions in these rounds regardless of what is happening in my draft. Every draft is different, every draft position is different—it sounds like you went into the draft with that cemented strategy regardless of what your draft position was and regardless of the ebbs and flows of the actual draft.
 
I'm realizing more that my problem is with the overall strategy.

The top tier TEs are generally off the board by the middle of the 5th, going for one in the 3rd is a round too early even if you need a top guy in the 4th (I've reached on Trey Benson a handful of times here). After that it's just an attempt to play catch up at wr/rb.
 
I have waited in almost every draft. QB is so deep this year that in 1 QB leagues it's just giving value away to reach in the 1st 6 rounds. Sure, it's nice having an elite guy - they will perform every week at a high level. Not saying they won't.

But this is a fantastic year for the QB freefall.

I wouldn't target ARod unless as a desperation QB2. There are guys at his ADP with much higher upside. Jayden Daniels is a solid target in the 8th. Purdy still gets no respect but with the YAC guys the 49ers have in Deebo & CMC dump-offs, Aiyuk back, + maybe another weapon in Pearsall? Yeah - he's going in the 8th, after dudes he out-scored last year. I also really like Murray at his ADP - if you wanna wait but don't wanna wait that long, he's going around pick 93 (mid-7th), while Love is going in roughly the same range.

And if you get hosed trying to wait, you can always pair up a TLaw (10th-11th) with a Geno (14th) and play mix & match. In that scenario I'd also grab a late wildcard like a Levis or Stafford and just run with the hot hand. These are guys who could provide excellent weekly production but take a little more management & lucky guesses to get the right play every week.

I used to do QB Freefall all the time. Last couple years the landscape changed a bit and I committed higher resources to the position. This year the freefall is back, baby.
Stuck to my guns with the freefall. Landed Kyler Murray in the 9th tonight, 12-team league.
 
Just picked up the RAvens RB Ali. Good Move?
Never know, but I think you're making a good post draft move. I would opt for Tyrone Tracy jr. then Ray Davis or Kimani Vidal if either of them is there. At back up TE I would check your wire for Jonnu Smith, perhaps Mike Gesicki, I also like Luke Musgrave.
 
Last edited:
I'm thinking:

RB/WR/TE/RB/WR/QB
Don't go in with an already decided position plan. You will miss out on value and mistakes from other drafters. Take BPA for at least 6 or 7 rounds (probably longer). Don't force positions for specific rounds.
If I don't know my slot I absolutely do not try to plan out when I will draft certain positions. Even if I do know, I tend to think in tiers. For example, I'm drafting out of the 3-spot in a 14-teamer tomorrow. I know I will almost never consider onesie positions for the first three rounds because in a bigger league that could leave me in a bad position.* But when I get to the 4/5 turn I may start looking at the likes of McBride or Andrews if they're still around. But if not I'll likely wait. Same with QBs at the 6/7 turn.

* Though even there, I try to stay flexible. Last year I needed a WR in R3 but didn't like the options available so I went with Andrews. Didn't pan out because of his injury, but I think the process was defensible
 
3rd to last team in a 12-team IDP to take a QB.

Kyler Murray in the 9th.


love it. :pickle:

Thats right around where I landed him in a draft last night(he was QB8 taken, IIRC). Felt pretty good about it at the time.

Given how rest of that draft went, I basically wish I'd waited even longer and been the last guy to draft one and took Daniels instead.

Have had two drafts so far, both from the 5 spot. I haven't loved either set of results, overall, TBH. They look competitive, but not particularly daunting. Have my third, and final, draft tonight. Fully expecting the 5th spot again. 🥶
 
3rd to last team in a 12-team IDP to take a QB.

Kyler Murray in the 9th.


love it. :pickle:

Thats right around where I landed him in a draft last night(he was QB8 taken, IIRC). Felt pretty good about it at the time.

Given how rest of that draft went, I basically wish I'd waited even longer and been the last guy to draft one and took Daniels instead.

Have had two drafts so far, both from the 5 spot. I haven't loved either set of results, overall, TBH. They look competitive, but not particularly daunting. Have my third, and final, draft tonight. Fully expecting the 5th spot again. 🥶
Sometimes a plan can go right, and then also go wrong - I like getting him as the QB8. He had more of a track record, maybe better targets, more shootouts.

That’s dancing on the edge of disaster, too. You could pass on Murray, then miss Daniels.

Next thing you know you’re streaming Darnold & Gio. Never want to be the dude still standing around when the music stops.

That gives me PTSD from just so, so many seasons.
 
In the 6th? Murray?
It’s a bit early, I agree.
Really? I took him in the 6th in a 12-teamer last week and was happy that he lasted that long. I've seen him going more like 4/5 in most of my mocks.

Here were the other QBs taken in that draft (standard QB scoring):
  • Tua: 3-4 (Miami homer)
  • Mahomes: 3-10
  • Allen: 3-11
  • Hurts: 3-12
  • Richardson: 4-10
  • CJ Stroud: 5-2
  • Murray: 6-4
  • Burrow: 6-7
  • Daniels: 7-1
  • Dak: 7-7
  • Love: 7-8
 
In the 6th? Murray?
It’s a bit early, I agree.
Really? I took him in the 6th in a 12-teamer last week and was happy that he lasted that long. I've seen him going more like 4/5 in most of my mocks.

Here were the other QBs taken in that draft (standard QB scoring):
  • Tua: 3-4 (Miami homer)
  • Mahomes: 3-10
  • Allen: 3-11
  • Hurts: 3-12
  • Richardson: 4-10
  • CJ Stroud: 5-2
  • Murray: 6-4
  • Burrow: 6-7
  • Daniels: 7-1
  • Dak: 7-7
  • Love: 7-8
The league I have him I got him in the 9th. Now, that’s IDP, but only 12 defensive players had gone off the board. So figure 1 full round less, so 8th in a standard 1 QB 12-team.

I’d consider the 7th a slight reach.
 
In the 6th? Murray?
It’s a bit early, I agree.
Really? I took him in the 6th in a 12-teamer last week and was happy that he lasted that long. I've seen him going more like 4/5 in most of my mocks.

Here were the other QBs taken in that draft (standard QB scoring):
  • Tua: 3-4 (Miami homer)
  • Mahomes: 3-10
  • Allen: 3-11
  • Hurts: 3-12
  • Richardson: 4-10
  • CJ Stroud: 5-2
  • Murray: 6-4
  • Burrow: 6-7
  • Daniels: 7-1
  • Dak: 7-7
  • Love: 7-8
The league I have him I got him in the 9th. Now, that’s IDP, but only 12 defensive players had gone off the board. So figure 1 full round less, so 8th in a standard 1 QB 12-team.

I’d consider the 7th a slight reach.
Are you drafting on a platform other than Yahoo? That could have something to do with it. I think his ADP there is much higher than in other places.

In my 14-teamer tonight, he went 5.05
 
Are you drafting on a platform other than Yahoo? That could have something to do with it. I think his ADP there is much higher than in other places.

In my 14-teamer tonight, he went 5.05
Yes, that was a live draft in my living room with 12 seasoned veterans of 20+ years in the hobby & a whooooooole lot of bourbon & beer. Site ADP goes out the window.

But I have drafted NFFC & Sleeper and you're absolutely right that often it's platform-specific. Huge impact since they give you their ranked list - and if Murray is at the top, he's gonna go earlier. 5.05 in a 14 team is like what, pick 75? So in a 12 team that's mid-6th in a 12-team. That sounds about right.

I tend to look at it in terms of X# off the board. Murray was the 10th QB off the board in my home league draft - because team ARSB wanted the combo (which I think is truly not smart as compared to taking the higher ranked QB, but we all play our own way).

I also had the luxury of seeing 9 teams with QBs, and with 3 teams needing QBs, I was looking at Dak & Murray hoping one made it. Team 10 took Dak, 9 took a DL, and I got Murray 8 picks later. In the NFFC Murray is typically the 8th or 9th QB off the board, but I've seem him as high as QB7. Usually it goes Love -> Murray -> Purdy.

6 is fine on Yahoo if that's how they push his name up the board - Murray has a very solid shot at QB3-4-5 for FF with his rushing ability - people forget what kind of points he can put up. I'm excited to see if his reported extra work pays off. Wish I had more shares.
 
6 is fine on Yahoo if that's how they push his name up the board - Murray has a very solid shot at QB3-4-5 for FF with his rushing ability - people forget what kind of points he can put up. I'm excited to see if his reported extra work pays off. Wish I had more shares.
This right there is the reason I'm high on him this year. I love it when there's a guy who you have no reason to think isn't still good, but his value is being artificially depressed by recency bias. Kyler missed half the year last year, and even though he played well when he returned it was on a forgettable AZ team that no one ever saw because their games were all buried in the 4:05 window. There is a definite injury risk, but beyond that I think the rushing gives him a good floor and he also has a lot of upside
 
Site ADP goes out the window.
if drafting Yahoo, the house rankings are TOTAL crap.

I think they use a computer regression model to predict the stats, but those regression models do an especially poor job when players switch teams or when teams make personell moves that should help a certain player produce better

ie. if a team with a poor line acquires 2 good free agents and drafts a likely starter(on the line) in the draft I have to believe the run game improves. but that doesnt compute with their regression model.

either way given how bad their rankings actually are (and mostly based on last seasons performance) the good news is if your player isnt likely to creep onto the top page where it lists the top players, then it sort of remains out of mind of the people drafting so you may be able to wait if the player isnt close to being on that visible list.

obviously draft the player if you feel its appropriate to do so. chances are if you have experienced drafters, they likely use the same trick.
 
Site ADP goes out the window.
if drafting Yahoo, the house rankings are TOTAL crap.

I think they use a computer regression model to predict the stats, but those regression models do an especially poor job when players switch teams or when teams make personell moves that should help a certain player produce better

ie. if a team with a poor line acquires 2 good free agents and drafts a likely starter(on the line) in the draft I have to believe the run game improves. but that doesnt compute with their regression model.

either way given how bad their rankings actually are (and mostly based on last seasons performance) the good news is if your player isnt likely to creep onto the top page where it lists the top players, then it sort of remains out of mind of the people drafting so you may be able to wait if the player isnt close to being on that visible list.

obviously draft the player if you feel its appropriate to do so. chances are if you have experienced drafters, they likely use the same trick.
No idea of the inner workings at Yahoo (or any other site), but I always assumed it was based on actual ADP from all the drafts they host on their platform
 
No idea of the inner workings at Yahoo (or any other site), but I always assumed it was based on actual ADP from all the drafts they host on their platform
Pretty sure it’s based on their initial rankings projections. No idea what they base those on, but it’s not ADP. The 1st draft of the year, there are default rankings.

But the point stands that their ranking are trash.
 
No idea of the inner workings at Yahoo (or any other site), but I always assumed it was based on actual ADP from all the drafts they host on their platform
Pretty sure it’s based on their initial rankings projections. No idea what they base those on, but it’s not ADP. The 1st draft of the year, there are default rankings.

But the point stands that their ranking are trash.
I dunno. some of their rankings are so bad its hard to believe an actual human would have looked at it because if one would have taken a look they would have tweaked those rankings. I think its a computer model of some sort. it has to be.
 
No idea of the inner workings at Yahoo (or any other site), but I always assumed it was based on actual ADP from all the drafts they host on their platform
Pretty sure it’s based on their initial rankings projections. No idea what they base those on, but it’s not ADP. The 1st draft of the year, there are default rankings.

But the point stands that their ranking are trash.
Yeah, initially, but ADPs change over time. I would be shocked if they're not incorporating data from all the drafts they're hosting.

I dunno. some of their rankings are so bad its hard to believe an actual human would have looked at it because if one would have taken a look they would have tweaked those rankings. I think its a computer model of some sort. it has to be.
I didn't say they were being reviewed by humans. They almost certainly aren't (nor should they be; that's what their analysts' rankings are for). What I was saying was that they are incorporating data from actual drafts.

And yes, there are a lot of idiots playing fantasy. You ever notice how CMC's start percentage is only 99%, or how even after a huge WW pickup like Puka emerges, his ownership % still seems ridiculously low? That's why. And some of those people might be in your league
 
No idea of the inner workings at Yahoo (or any other site), but I always assumed it was based on actual ADP from all the drafts they host on their platform
Pretty sure it’s based on their initial rankings projections. No idea what they base those on, but it’s not ADP. The 1st draft of the year, there are default rankings.

But the point stands that their ranking are trash.
Yeah, initially, but ADPs change over time. I would be shocked if they're not incorporating data from all the drafts they're hosting.

I dunno. some of their rankings are so bad its hard to believe an actual human would have looked at it because if one would have taken a look they would have tweaked those rankings. I think its a computer model of some sort. it has to be.
I didn't say they were being reviewed by humans. They almost certainly aren't (nor should they be; that's what their analysts' rankings are for). What I was saying was that they are incorporating data from actual drafts.

And yes, there are a lot of idiots playing fantasy. You ever notice how CMC's start percentage is only 99%, or how even after a huge WW pickup like Puka emerges, his ownership % still seems ridiculously low? That's why. And some of those people might be in your league
Not mine.

My league is generally lightning fast on picking up of players who breakout.

but I get it. there are a lot of office leagues out there full of people who think Zeke is still a superstar.
 

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