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Draft strategy (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter rush00756
- Start date
Thanks for the input. I won the league last year going with RB,RB,RB, without losing value or stretching. So I'm tempted to go RB, WR, WR. I guess I won't know until the draft rolls around. I hate being weak at RB, because it seems like there is more value at mid round WR's than mid round RB's. What say you?
That's probably true, except that I think you need to think about starting lineup first and foremost and what squad will give you the most total points.A Stud WR is just as good, if not better, than a 2nd and 3rd round RB and will post larger season totals in the long run. If you run into RB trouble, a top WR can always be traded for a solid RB.
Sounds like you and I have the same type league, except we have 10 teams. We just changed to PPR this year, but have always had the flex. I've been of the same mindset on RBs, fearing being weak there I draft them heavy at the front end of the draft. WR seems to run deeper. After seeing the responses to your post and to one I had on a similar topic, I might be changing my mind about getting top flight WRs, as early as round 2 and possibly going RB/WR/WR/RB. Usually, I'm RB in 1/2 minimum.
Patoons (and other guys)...I've listed out some different scenarios (top 5 picks only) based on my having the #2 draft position and going RB/RB/RB/WR/WR....going RB/WR/WR/RB/RB, and others. When basing this on our league's projected points for each player, I keep coming to almost exactly the same # of total points for the first 5 players. For example,#2 LT
#19 Ronnie Brown
#22 Julius Jones
#39 Donald Driver
#42 Joey Galloway
Total 1246 points (ppr league)
#2 LT
#19 Torry Holt
#22 Larry Fitzgerald
#39 Reuben Droughs
#42 Willie Parker
Total 1246 points (ppr league)
I ran a couple of others based on who I felt would be there at my draft slot and reached similar conclusions. With RBs getting hurt more often, I'm tempted to go with a scenario like #1, but having two stud WRs in scenario 2 is appealing also.
Now, I realize that picks 6-9 are very important and you can find some good values there, and, like I found last year, the top guys might not pan out (I had D. Davis in rd 2, Javon in rd 3 and Tatum Bell in rd. 4).
Wanted to get some feedback on what ya'll would do in similar situation.
Btw, our league is a 10 team league, 1 pt per 10yrd rush/rec., 1/25 passing 6 pts TD, 1PPR. We start 1 Q, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 Flex, 1 D, 1 TE, 1 K.
I'll hang up and listen.
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Would not be a bad team, but I might wait a round or 2 for QB in your scenario (maybe not..6 is typical for me) and would not mind taking a shot at a Lendale White or Deangelo Williams rather than Gore. Thanks for the feedback. If I had this team (with maybe a Bulger at QB in the 6 hole), I'd be pretty happy.
I don't have your projected stats, so I can't see for myself, but I find it hard to imagine that in a PPR, the following lineup is not going to outscore another lineup... mid-level RB's are much less valuable in the flex spot than WR's, from what I've seen in recent memory.LT
R.Brown
Fitz
Driver
R. Smith/Mason/etc.
Willie Parker finished something like 80th overal in my league last season with 170 or so points... 33 WR's finished ahead of him. I don't know how reliable your projections are or what drives them, but I'm struggling to find how a guy like Parker is going to outscore a top 20 WR, who you can get later than Parker and get a solid TE in the middle who will put up WR2 numbers instead. You can then increase the point output. This is why value based drafting, and not need based is the best way to go.
Parker, or the equivalent RB at #42, will go much earlier just based on position scarcity. You can get a WR later that will match his potential. Many RB's are extremely overvalued in PPRs.
It's nice to go on projected stats, but the team's aren't going to be drafted solely on points scored or projected. Position scarcity and the RB theory will never fail to take over.
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We use CBS Sportsline. Parker is rated #21 RB with 181 projected pts, which is the equivalent of the #38 projected WR (Braylon Edwards). I think the line up that you suggested (LT/Brown/Fitz/Driver/Mason) would outscore the ones I suggested. I'm still not sure about my #3 RB, though. I could get a RB maybe just outside the top 20 in round 5 (Droughns at 173 pts, for ex.), and then go WR in Rd 6 (TJ Housh or L. Coles at around 203 pts). Going for Mason at #42 (rd. 5), leaves me with a Ron Dayne or Thomas Jones (147 pts) at #59 (rd. 6). Slightly better getting that 3rd RB who will still be #1 for his team at rd. 5 and waiting to get s still good WR in the deeper WR pool in rd. 6.
My concern is if I have two good RBs and my 3rd is a guy in RBBC (Jones, Dayne, etc.). RB1 or RB2 gets hurt, them I'm in trouble. Need to get good cuff, if possible (D. Foster, D. WIlliams). WR is deeper.
You make some good points. I'll need to consider it.
Personally, I'd go with two solid RB's then go for guys you'd think have a good shot at starting ultimately this season and grab in the later rounds. For example, Frank Gore is going ridiculously late for a guy with a shot at a starting job (something like 7th round)... MB3 is another guy going late who is likely getting goalline duty. He'd do the job should one of the two go down. Having either as #3 (or TJ), I would think, would be more than sufficient. If you draft value-based... should LT or Brown go down, you have Fitz to trade for a RB, or even MB3/Mason for a RB and should have another WR on the bench who you could plug in and not lose much in the way of points.
This is why VBD is the best way to go.
H.K.
Footballguy
VBD is the answer. Due to the shortage of RB's I'd bet that at least your first two picks should be RB. Personally, I'd grab 3 RB regardless of who is available. You'll have much trade potential once RB's start going down, and you'll be covered in case they are yours. Also, guys like Mason and Coles can be had cheaply, but will be reliable performers in PPR formats. Finally, its easier to land WR talent off the WW than RB.
