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Draft Today...Is L.J. worth it? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Pitch12
- Start date
Challenge Everything
Footballguy
Yes
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
do a search - there is a thread titled something like is lj really #3; should give you some quick input. also a lot of discussion in the thread on who is the #4 consensus pick.
eta - two are stilll on the 1st page
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=331080
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=331710
eta - two are stilll on the 1st page
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=331080
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=331710
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You might try looking at this thread:
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=331080
There are likely others as well. Personally, I think the risk of his situation outweighs SA's health, Gore's injury, Parker's knees, and Addai's question marks. So I would not draft LJ at #3 today.
My .02
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=331080
There are likely others as well. Personally, I think the risk of his situation outweighs SA's health, Gore's injury, Parker's knees, and Addai's question marks. So I would not draft LJ at #3 today.
My .02
LayinTheSmackDown
Footballguy
I have a draft this Sunday drafting out of the #9 hole out of 10 and I know that if he slides down to me i will not be selecting him with my 1st round pick. Too many unanswered questions as to what is ultimately going to happen with LJ this year.
Dancing Bear
Footballguy
IMHO, take LJ without reservation!
There is still a strong, strong possibility he will sign in the next week or so, and play every snap this season.
LJ, Steven Jackson and LT are heads and tails above the rest of the RB pack. To the tune of at least 3 ppg.
Even if he does not sign, it is no different than if someone on your roster who goes down with a season ending injury.
There is still a strong, strong possibility he will sign in the next week or so, and play every snap this season.
LJ, Steven Jackson and LT are heads and tails above the rest of the RB pack. To the tune of at least 3 ppg.
Even if he does not sign, it is no different than if someone on your roster who goes down with a season ending injury.
CiscoKid
Footballguy
I think I'd pass on him currently as well with a top 10+ pick. I think he's way too much risk at this point to not hold out / contract to not get done, and KC just looks to be a total mess to me right now (line, QB, Holmes might vulture, etc). There's too many other RB's I'd rather have at that pick for me to be willing to accept the possible downside.
Tbone
Shrinkage
I was generally in agreement until that last statement. In my experience when my first round draft pick goes down with a season ending injury it's very difficult to bounce back. If you have a choice, why would you opt in to that potential situation?
Mohawk
Footballguy
I agree with the last comment. You have no control over injuries, they just happen.You have some control over whether to take LJ or not.
However, I would still take him.
Colin Dowling
Footballguy
He is easily worth the 3rd.
The Kansas Comet
Footballguy
I feel your pain - I had to declare him as my franchise player on Monday. It didn't feel good.Just what I needed, another LJ thread to further magnify the fact that I don't know what the hell I'm gonna do in 3 days when I have to announce my franchise player as either LJ or Addai.
Dancing Bear
Footballguy
If you are looking for certainty than there isn't any in FF ... Each and every RB has associated risks.
LT is reasonably sound, but he has a TON of carries and can he hold up in his 6th year.
Steven Jackson is reasonably sound, but how much will the Offense change this year. Is Torry Holt going to be 100%? Is Bruce too old this time around?
Even these guys are risks, and they will both likely be gone unless you are playing with guppies ...
I don't know how you could pick Gore in LJ's place though. That baffles me ...
He has no history that he'll do it again. Even given that he repeats, he was nearly 4 ppg lower than LJ last year. He has a history of getting hurt and he currently has a broken bone in his right hand [carry hand]. He'll loose reps, confidence and depending upon how severely it was broken he will not treat the hand the same ...
Addai is perhaps the next best ... but how do reconcile the loss of Glenn. The distribution of plays to Harrison, Wayne, Clark ... Last year he was nearly 9 ppg lower than LJ. The combination of Rhodes + Addai was a full ppg lower than LJ!
Westbrook was a beast last year. Can he do it again? Will he be asked to do it again? McNabb's back behind center and the focal point of the Offense. I believe that significantly downgrades Westbrook for '07.
Perhaps Shaun Alexander ... Jones is hurting ... Seattle's O was reeling last year. Can they recover? Or not?
I'm rolling the dice. LJ will be in Camp before the 25th of August. Ready to go for all snaps this season!
LT is reasonably sound, but he has a TON of carries and can he hold up in his 6th year.
Steven Jackson is reasonably sound, but how much will the Offense change this year. Is Torry Holt going to be 100%? Is Bruce too old this time around?
Even these guys are risks, and they will both likely be gone unless you are playing with guppies ...
I don't know how you could pick Gore in LJ's place though. That baffles me ...
He has no history that he'll do it again. Even given that he repeats, he was nearly 4 ppg lower than LJ last year. He has a history of getting hurt and he currently has a broken bone in his right hand [carry hand]. He'll loose reps, confidence and depending upon how severely it was broken he will not treat the hand the same ...
Addai is perhaps the next best ... but how do reconcile the loss of Glenn. The distribution of plays to Harrison, Wayne, Clark ... Last year he was nearly 9 ppg lower than LJ. The combination of Rhodes + Addai was a full ppg lower than LJ!
Westbrook was a beast last year. Can he do it again? Will he be asked to do it again? McNabb's back behind center and the focal point of the Offense. I believe that significantly downgrades Westbrook for '07.
Perhaps Shaun Alexander ... Jones is hurting ... Seattle's O was reeling last year. Can they recover? Or not?
I'm rolling the dice. LJ will be in Camp before the 25th of August. Ready to go for all snaps this season!
Routilla
Footballguy
I hope you are right, for the sake of my FF season.
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Ron_Mexico
I Love Doggies
With the possibility of Croyle as the starting QB,opponents will be stuffing the box this year v LJ.Even if he signs and plays every game,I see his numbers decreasing anywhere between 10-20% from last season.
This is exactly my point - thanks Ron! While everyone has some issues, I am going to try and avoid as much uncertainty as possible with my first pick. The way I see it, he signs and goes to a team with a ton of question marks, or he holds out for 10 games. Most of the first round RB's will miss a game or two, but not 10.
Colin Dowling
Footballguy
So you're thinking that they haven't been stuffing the box against KC's ground game the last 4 seasons?ALso, a 10% drop across the board would be 1970 total yards and 16 or so TDs.
TO wasn't the 3rd pick in the draft.No quite the same risk / reward ratio.
Dexter Manley
Footballguy
I was a LJ owner in one league last year, and remember that he started out pretty slow the first few games. I expect to see more of that lower production this year. This season his oline is even worse. His starting qb is significantly worse unless they give Huard the job.
And it's very possible he misses most if not all of training camp. He might still be holding out when the season starts.
I would take Henry over him at the #3 spot.
And it's very possible he misses most if not all of training camp. He might still be holding out when the season starts.
I would take Henry over him at the #3 spot.
Routilla
Footballguy
I don't think the OL will be much different than last year. It's not like they were great or anything but certainly a serviceable group. I doubt either Huard or Croyle will be worse than Green after the concussion(sitting duck). Now the hold-out situation has merit and that alone can be the difference in having a top 3 RB and finishing dead last in my league.
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Sweat Hog
Footballguy
Just remember the old FF addage: You don't win with your first round pick, but you can most definitely lose with it.
Take a safer player - so what if LJ plays and outperforms your guy by 20 or 30 points? But if you take him and he holds out it could cost you a lot more than that.
Take a safer player - so what if LJ plays and outperforms your guy by 20 or 30 points? But if you take him and he holds out it could cost you a lot more than that.
jurrassic
Footballguy
I have the same problem as well.I feel your pain - I had to declare him as my franchise player on Monday. It didn't feel good.Just what I needed, another LJ thread to further magnify the fact that I don't know what the hell I'm gonna do in 3 days when I have to announce my franchise player as either LJ or Addai.
Ron_Mexico
I Love Doggies
After further reasearch....Will Shields retirementDowngrade at QBMcIntosh gone for a couple of months.LJ holdout / conditioning issuesI'll re-vamp my downgrade of LJ to30-40% off of last year's numbers.
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Dancing Bear
Footballguy
I took LJ without reservation, and I would do it every time.
IMHO he'll be foolish to hold out any longer than the week of August 25th.
Besides, any other RB you take is going to cost you between 4 ppg and 10 ppg, and don't forget that you are really going to be two guys behind the Owner who takes LJ after you in a standard serpentine draft because they will get the better WR coming back in the 2nd round.
It's well worth the risk IMHO.
IMHO he'll be foolish to hold out any longer than the week of August 25th.
Besides, any other RB you take is going to cost you between 4 ppg and 10 ppg, and don't forget that you are really going to be two guys behind the Owner who takes LJ after you in a standard serpentine draft because they will get the better WR coming back in the 2nd round.
It's well worth the risk IMHO.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
LAST year it may have cost you between 4-10ppg. This season - probably not.
Routilla
Footballguy
I love people who are comparing Addai and Parker to LJ. I have no chance of drafting LJ in my league but man I would give my left and right n ut to have him. Does anyone on this board watch football anymore. This is getting ridiculous. My only concern with LJ is when does he stop running with a chip on his shoulder. This guy runs everytime like he has something to prove. A fat contract may fill that chip in. I hope he shows up day one of the reg season with no contract and I can almost guarantee he is top 3 rb if he does not get hurt.
One
Not Allowed In Mexico
This is what I've been thinkin'. It's almost cool to hate on LJ since everybody was so high on him last season. I have no shot at him in any league yet, but I'd happily take the guy with the 3rd pick or below.
Things can't get much worse than last season.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
... except for the O-line being worse. And potentially the QB play if they go with an untested Croyle. And the receiver play as Gonzo/Kennison get another year older and they continue plugging young untested WR's hoping someone will be a starting caliber WR. And LJ missing signifigant practice/training so even if his holdout does end by game #1 he won't be as game ready as if he were practicing with his teamates. And even if he does eventually show up to play, shows up in game shape and avoids all injuries.... you're still assuming they'll give him a record breaking work load for a second season in a row.Other than that it can't get much worse.This is what I've been thinkin'. It's almost cool to hate on LJ since everybody was so high on him last season. I have no shot at him in any league yet, but I'd happily take the guy with the 3rd pick or below.
Things can't get much worse than last season.
One
Not Allowed In Mexico
man, you just rambled off about 5 things completely based on opinion and pretty weak IMO.Line: Same as last year.... except for the O-line being worse. And potentially the QB play if they go with an untested Croyle. And the receiver play as Gonzo/Kennison get another year older and they continue plugging young untested WR's hoping someone will be a starting caliber WR. And LJ missing signifigant practice/training so even if his holdout does end by game #1 he won't be as game ready as if he were practicing with his teamates. And even if he does eventually show up to play, shows up in game shape and avoids all injuries.... you're still assuming they'll give him a record breaking work load for a second season in a row.Other than that it can't get much worse.This is what I've been thinkin'. It's almost cool to hate on LJ since everybody was so high on him last season. I have no shot at him in any league yet, but I'd happily take the guy with the 3rd pick or below.
Things can't get much worse than last season.
QB: Worse case senario it ends up as Huard.
WR: ...I won't even answer this one
Missing practice: He knows the offense and there's no way he's at home just sitting on the couch.
Carries: He'll get ALL the important ones.
Bottom line.. I can make the FF playoffs, that's not a problem, but I DO NOT want to be the guy playing LJ in the 1st round.
So keep brewing up whatever "setbacks" you can think because he's one of the most talented backs in the NFL and I don't buy it that he's gonna fade anytime soon.
On a side note.. I do agree his production will lessen due to a lighter workload.
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AnonymousBob
Footballguy
So you're thinking that they have the same offensive line as the last 4 seasons? The same coach? The same qb?
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
We've all seen the powerful effect of a damned fine offensive line. How else do you explain the seemingly endless number of quality backs that ooze out of Denver? Does anyone think if Edge had played for the Colts last season he would not have had another good year?
I think we all agree LJ has talent. However, talent alone does not make someone a stud. The team situation plays a HUGE factor in things. Right now, the Chiefs team situation is a lot less desirable than that of many other teams.
If I had a chance to grab LJ I would strongly consider passing over him for Addai or FWP. LJ has a better history but that history is based off several factors that are no longer applicable. I believe LJ has the highest upside of all three but also has the biggest downside.
I think we all agree LJ has talent. However, talent alone does not make someone a stud. The team situation plays a HUGE factor in things. Right now, the Chiefs team situation is a lot less desirable than that of many other teams.
If I had a chance to grab LJ I would strongly consider passing over him for Addai or FWP. LJ has a better history but that history is based off several factors that are no longer applicable. I believe LJ has the highest upside of all three but also has the biggest downside.
