Drafting a D/ST (1 Viewer)

[The Ref]

Someone quoted a factoid to me. The preseason D/ST for the past ten years only finished in the top 12 once in the past ten years? That doesn't sound right? Is it?

 

[dino259]

Is this due in part to defensive touchdowns being even more unpredictable than offensive touchdowns?

 

[lapdawg]

I'd also note that in 2009 the Steelers were only 6 points (230 v 236) from finishing in the Top 12 and 16 points from finishing in the Top 5. In 2008 the Chargers (if you call them the #1) were 2 points away from Top 12 (221 v 223) and 15 points away from Top 7.So basically, even in the years that I found this claim to be true it wasn't meaningfully true.ETA: The only really true one was the 2007 Ravens who finished 111 points (127 v 238) off of 12th place.

I guess the inference is that defenses are unpredictable enough that there is no reason to waste even a mid round pick just to get a top defense. The fact that there is such a narrow difference between top 5 and middle of the road substantiates this even further.

 

[JohnnyU]

Also keep in mind that a good NFL defense doesn't always mean a good fantasy defense.