Drafting a defense early (1 Viewer)

[Manster]

im not completely against reaching for a defense. you might start a run. better to start one than finish it.

the Jets D looks to be very good once again. but im really liking the Vikes too. they get to play the Lions and Bears twice. the Bears with Martz onboard and Cutler throwing, will turn the ball over a lot.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Drafting a D early is idiotic. It almost never works out. For all of you moronic Jets pimpers, tell me this...who is running all the special teams tds back for them? The best Ds always have lots of punt and kick return tds. I can save you all alot of hassel and tell you right now that there is no way to predict what team will have the flavor du jour for scoring tons of tds on special teams. For the person who is considering the Jets in the 4 - 5 th round...wtf? That must be some sort of joke right?

You're gone 2 weeks. If you come back, be way cooler if you want to post here. TIA.J

 

[Ray_T]

I never draft defenses early. There are too many factors (especially injury) that can affect how a defense plays over the course of a season, and furthermore, the scoring systems in almost every league I play in dictates that there is not a huge difference in projected performance between MOST defenses out there.

Now I agree that projected points are not the same as actual, but at the end of the day I feel I can get more upside by grabbing a top WR or QB in round 5 as has been suggested previously.

That being said.... if the rules in your league warrant, then by all means, draft a defense early. All I am saying is in most leagues this is a risky strategy.

I'd say take a defense no earlier than round 7 for most leagues with standard scoring.

 

[TWP]

Drafting a D early is idiotic. It almost never works out. For all of you moronic Jets pimpers, tell me this...who is running all the special teams tds back for them? The best Ds always have lots of punt and kick return tds. I can save you all alot of hassel and tell you right now that there is no way to predict what team will have the flavor du jour for scoring tons of tds on special teams. For the person who is considering the Jets in the 4 - 5 th round...wtf? That must be some sort of joke right?

You're gone 2 weeks. If you come back, be way cooler if you want to post here. TIA.J

Can't you just make it so that when someone registers a name like 'meatwad' they get instantly banned as soon as they register? He had just become the first person on my ignore list, but now I guess that's redundant...

 

[ookook]

People need to realize and continue to be aware that the value of defenses will vary on scoring and size. I very hard to make them relevant in leagues I run (with mixed success).

In some leagues it makes sense to draft one early. Not 4th or 5th round early, but still.

However, in most 12 man leagues there is enough "supply" relative to the "demand" to make even a 9th or 10th round pick a poor investment.

With that said, in a D-heavy league, after you have taken starters and a backup for QB, every starting RB, and the majoprity of WRs and TEs, if the Jets are on the board, taking them is fine. So in a 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE league I am saying the 12th or 13th.

What about a 10 team league that starts 1 RB and 2 WR(no TE)1 Flex. The roster requirements are 2 QB's, 3 RB's, 3WR's, 2 K's, 2 D's.

The top D scored 150 points more than the 12th D(and more points than Chris Johnson), the top WR scored less than 100 points than the 24th WR.

You projected the Jets to be far better than the next highest defense in 2010.

Yardage and points weigh far more heavily than normal.(Even if a D doent have a sack, turnover or TD, but only allow 3 points and 240 yards will score as high as the top 5 WR's in any given week.)

Not to mention a D that allows alot of yards and points can loss you enough points to negate a good WR game.

In a 10-team league with short line-ups, backing up a player is less important and the supply-demand starts to shift toward being equal with other positions. Of course, it might be perceived by many owners that the wire (vs. the draft) might play too large a role.In terms of the 150 pts more, what kind of scoring would that be? The above example by Sir Psycho is about the most extreme DEF/ST scoring I recall seeing and that only resulted in the 76 pts between Jets and GB last year. So about double? Full weight of pts allowed and a 120 pt swing from <100 and >550 yards allowed? Oh, my.

 

[Go deep]

People need to realize and continue to be aware that the value of defenses will vary on scoring and size. I very hard to make them relevant in leagues I run (with mixed success).

In some leagues it makes sense to draft one early. Not 4th or 5th round early, but still.

However, in most 12 man leagues there is enough "supply" relative to the "demand" to make even a 9th or 10th round pick a poor investment.

With that said, in a D-heavy league, after you have taken starters and a backup for QB, every starting RB, and the majoprity of WRs and TEs, if the Jets are on the board, taking them is fine. So in a 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE league I am saying the 12th or 13th.

What about a 10 team league that starts 1 RB and 2 WR(no TE)1 Flex. The roster requirements are 2 QB's, 3 RB's, 3WR's, 2 K's, 2 D's.

The top D scored 150 points more than the 12th D(and more points than Chris Johnson), the top WR scored less than 100 points than the 24th WR.

You projected the Jets to be far better than the next highest defense in 2010.

Yardage and points weigh far more heavily than normal.(Even if a D doent have a sack, turnover or TD, but only allow 3 points and 240 yards will score as high as the top 5 WR's in any given week.)

Not to mention a D that allows alot of yards and points can loss you enough points to negate a good WR game.

In a 10-team league with short line-ups, backing up a player is less important and the supply-demand starts to shift toward being equal with other positions. Of course, it might be perceived by many owners that the wire (vs. the draft) might play too large a role.In terms of the 150 pts more, what kind of scoring would that be? The above example by Sir Psycho is about the most extreme DEF/ST scoring I recall seeing and that only resulted in the 76 pts between Jets and GB last year. So about double? Full weight of pts allowed and a 120 pt swing from <100 and >550 yards allowed? Oh, my.

The difference between the 1 and 12 defenses, not the 1 and 2. This league is not really the point of the thread though. I was just pointing out that i am NOT suggesting taking a D in any "normal" league before the 8th round, but in an extreme situation(this league) i would take one as high as the 4th/5th.

 

[skillz]

Depends on the league.

I am in a pretty unique 12 team league where we limit waiver wire pick ups. Each team gets five free waiver wire pick up and after that it is $5 a piece - all money in that pot goes to the winner. As a result, most teams will draft two defenses at the draft to avoid having one of their waiver wire picks be a defense. If a team doesn't draft a good defense, then there is likely not much help on the waiver wire. It's usually much easier to find help at another position off waivers during the season

Plus, our league takes away points for points against and points scored. The end result is that if you have a bad defense that isn't getting significant sacks or turnovers you may end up with negative points on a particular week. Your defense ends up dragging down the points of other positions on your roster.

In short, having a good defense is very valuable so some teams will go as early as Round 6-7 to grab a premium defense. That seems about right since the FBG custom rankings in my league have the Jets as a 6th round pick. The new owners that join the league over the years always come in with the "take a defense" late mentality and usually end up regretting it.

 

[bagger]

I know the rule is to draft your defenses right before your kickers in the last few rounds, but i think this is a good year to reach for a defense earlier. The Jets are far and away better than the rest, that i wouldnt be afraid to take them not to far after i fill my lineup(i actually just did it in a league). Even if their advantage is 2 points a week, isnt that better than taking a guy like Jabar Gaffney or Tim Hightower, or any other player that will be hard pressed to ever see your starting lineup?

Nnly because the "good" defense you take early will as often underperform a D taken late.Find a few value candidates for D and pick a couple at the end of the draft. Running a defensive duo that pairs up to an easy schedule is often much more valuable that wasting a 9th round pick when you could be getting a RB, TE, WR, or QB who will be starting multiple games for you based on injuries and byes.

 

[bagger]

you might start a run. better to start one than finish it.

if your league started a kicker run in the first round, are you better off starting it or finishing it?

 

[Go deep]

I know the rule is to draft your defenses right before your kickers in the last few rounds, but i think this is a good year to reach for a defense earlier. The Jets are far and away better than the rest, that i wouldnt be afraid to take them not to far after i fill my lineup(i actually just did it in a league). Even if their advantage is 2 points a week, isnt that better than taking a guy like Jabar Gaffney or Tim Hightower, or any other player that will be hard pressed to ever see your starting lineup?

Nnly because the "good" defense you take early will as often underperform a D taken late.Find a few value candidates for D and pick a couple at the end of the draft. Running a defensive duo that pairs up to an easy schedule is often much more valuable that wasting a 9th round pick when you could be getting a RB, TE, WR, or QB who will be starting multiple games for you based on injuries and byes.

More times than not i agree, except this season with the Jets. The players i considered taking in the same round i took the Jets, i was able to get rounds later, particularly the WR's i wanted. Like i said before, i am not telling anyone the Jets are a must have, but under the right circumstances, taking the Jets in the 9th or 10th might be the right play.

 

[Go deep]

you might start a run. better to start one than finish it.

if your league started a kicker run in the first round, are you better off starting it or finishing it?

I would say its a bit more likely others will take a D in rounds 10 and 11 than a kicker in round 1, no?

 

[bagger]

you might start a run. better to start one than finish it.

if your league started a kicker run in the first round, are you better off starting it or finishing it?

I would say its a bit more likely others will take a D in rounds 10 and 11 than a kicker in round 1, no?

True...but you're not starting a run by taking a D in the 9th round anyway. You'll be the lone person taking a D 3 rounds before the next guy at best I would imagine.Point is...sometimes it is better to finish a run. I think it is much better to finish a QB run than start it, since the QB "run" often starts in the 2nd round and lasts the next 7 rounds.'It is OK to be the last person in your league to draft a QB, D, or PK depending on your projections and who you are taking in the rounds you are foregoing those positions.I think it is too easy for people to ignore the value of depth with players they think will never start.A great exercise me and my gb Tiger Fan used to do in WCOFF was prior to a draft do a mock and map out on a weekly basis the estimated PPG each player would score inserting them into the starting lineup. Many times your #5 or #6 WR would start 3-4 games (granted that is start 3 WR plus flex PPR). However the point stands, in a normal start 3 WR you will be starting your #5 WR at least a couple games based on byes and injuries. This means that those 9-12 rounds you are still picking starters who will be playing about 25% of your fantasy season at a minimum.The PPG you gain by drafting a D early who have shown are not consistent at all in reproducing fantasy results at a significantly higher level than other late round Ds (especially targeting Defensive Duos...I think Chase always does an article on this) is not worth the PPG gained by taking "backups" (who will start multiple games) and waiting on your D.Fantasy football is not about total points scored. It is about point differential.

 

[Go deep]

you might start a run. better to start one than finish it.

if your league started a kicker run in the first round, are you better off starting it or finishing it?

I would say its a bit more likely others will take a D in rounds 10 and 11 than a kicker in round 1, no?

True...but you're not starting a run by taking a D in the 9th round anyway. You'll be the lone person taking a D 3 rounds before the next guy at best I would imagine.Point is...sometimes it is better to finish a run. I think it is much better to finish a QB run than start it, since the QB "run" often starts in the 2nd round and lasts the next 7 rounds.'It is OK to be the last person in your league to draft a QB, D, or PK depending on your projections and who you are taking in the rounds you are foregoing those positions.I think it is too easy for people to ignore the value of depth with players they think will never start.A great exercise me and my gb Tiger Fan used to do in WCOFF was prior to a draft do a mock and map out on a weekly basis the estimated PPG each player would score inserting them into the starting lineup. Many times your #5 or #6 WR would start 3-4 games (granted that is start 3 WR plus flex PPR). However the point stands, in a normal start 3 WR you will be starting your #5 WR at least a couple games based on byes and injuries. This means that those 9-12 rounds you are still picking starters who will be playing about 25% of your fantasy season at a minimum.The PPG you gain by drafting a D early who have shown are not consistent at all in reproducing fantasy results at a significantly higher level than other late round Ds (especially targeting Defensive Duos...I think Chase always does an article on this) is not worth the PPG gained by taking "backups" (who will start multiple games) and waiting on your D.Fantasy football is not about total points scored. It is about point differential.

I agree with pretty much everything you are saying, i just think this year might be a bit different with taking the Jets D earlier than normal. Your right, if i cant get the Jets, i am likely not taking a D until the last couple rounds, i just really like the Jets this year.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

im not completely against reaching for a defense. you might start a run. better to start one than finish it.the Jets D looks to be very good once again. but im really liking the Vikes too. they get to play the Lions and Bears twice. the Bears with Martz onboard and Cutler throwing, will turn the ball over a lot.

Hey Manster,No offense but in most experienced leagues, you're not going to start a big defensive run. Usually what happens is 1 person always bites on the best ranked defense. So this year someone will take the Jets earlier than they should. Then someone about 1/2 round to a round later will take the No. 2 ranked defense. Then you may go another round or 2 before anyone pulls a trigger. At that point, you'll see a few more defenses go, and that's where I think the best place to make your defensive selection is, somewhere around 5 to 8.

 

[bagger]

I agree with pretty much everything you are saying, i just think this year might be a bit different with taking the Jets D earlier than normal. Your right, if i cant get the Jets, i am likely not taking a D until the last couple rounds, i just really like the Jets this year.

Then honestly you should take the Jets at a round you know you can get them but not too many rounds too early.There will be nothing worse than knowing you should have and then passing on them and watching them dominate.

If there is one thing I have learned over the years, draft your team, regardless of the critics. If you fail miserably, at least you did so on your terms. Correspondingly, if you succeed you have the pride of making the pick that nobody else had the foresight to make.