Drafting from the #1 slot....not too great? (1 Viewer)

[Texican]

Well I pulled the #1 draft pick this year (12 team, non-keeper). I know that I can get one of the "big 3", but then I don't get another pick until the 24th slot. Looking at what RBs might be available I really wish I would have had the #3 slot - just to get a better chance at a better RB2.

Am I panicing way too early or is the #1 slot not all it's cracked up to be? I have even considered trying to trade my 2nd and 3rd round picks (24th and 25th) to the 12th team for his 2nd and 3rd (#13 and #36). (Note that I have no idea if he would consider it,and it is not likely to come to fruition anyways.)

 

[TwinTurbo]

I'm seeing guys like Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, Dom Davis (due to injury), and Bush available at the turn in Round 2 & 3. I'm not sold on JJ or DD, but KJ and Bush will be legit #2 RB's and maybe even a decent #1. YOu are also going to pick up a good WR here too. I like picking #1 or #2 this year.

 

[CalBear]

Well I pulled the #1 draft pick this year (12 team, non-keeper). I know that I can get one of the "big 3", but then I don't get another pick until the 24th slot. Looking at what RBs might be available I really wish I would have had the #3 slot - just to get a better chance at a better RB2.

Am I panicing way too early or is the #1 slot not all it's cracked up to be? I have even considered trying to trade my 2nd and 3rd round picks (24th and 25th) to the 12th team for his 2nd and 3rd (#13 and #36). (Note that I have no idea if he would consider it,and it is not likely to come to fruition anyways.)

The #1 slot is the best slot in the draft. You get the top RB, and you also get to be the first to make your third pick. You will have the strongest first three players if you draft reasonably.To put it another way, would you trade Larry Johnson (assuming you have him #1), Julius Jones, and Anquan Boldin for Alexander (assuming you have him #3), Kevin Jones, and Reggie Wayne?

 

[Texican]

The #1 slot is the best slot in the draft. You get the top RB, and you also get to be the first to make your third pick. You will have the strongest first three players if you draft reasonably.

To put it another way, would you trade Larry Johnson (assuming you have him #1), Julius Jones, and Anquan Boldin for Alexander (assuming you have him #3), Kevin Jones, and Reggie Wayne?

Well not when you put it that way. I was actually more concerned if I should try to trade picks to move up to get a better 2nd or 3rd rounder. I don't know....just a bit (overly) concerned with it right now I guess.

 

[CalBear]

The #1 slot is the best slot in the draft. You get the top RB, and you also get to be the first to make your third pick. You will have the strongest first three players if you draft reasonably.

To put it another way, would you trade Larry Johnson (assuming you have him #1), Julius Jones, and Anquan Boldin for Alexander (assuming you have him #3), Kevin Jones, and Reggie Wayne?

Well not when you put it that way. I was actually more concerned if I should try to trade picks to move up to get a better 2nd or 3rd rounder. I don't know....just a bit (overly) concerned with it right now I guess.

Fundamentally, a better RB1 is more important than a better RB2; the fantasy point differential between RB1 and RB3 is significantly larger than the difference between RB15 and RB17 (or whatever's left at the end of round 2). I would only trade out of the top spot if I got good value in return (pick 1.02 or 1.03 plus another early-round pick).

 

[Texican]

Well I really do not want to make this into a total AC Forum post, just looking for strategy info I guess.

If you hang onto the #1 slot, is it (in your opinion) wise to try and move up in the 2nd and down in the 3rd? (ie my 24th and 25th for his 13th and 36th)

Or is a serpentine draft designed to work itself out in the long run where you would not need to trade draft picks....

 

[CalBear]

Well I really do not want to make this into a total AC Forum post, just looking for strategy info I guess. If you hang onto the #1 slot, is it (in your opinion) wise to try and move up in the 2nd and down in the 3rd? (ie my 24th and 25th for his 13th and 36th)Or is a serpentine draft designed to work itself out in the long run where you would not need to trade draft picks....

Check the Pick Value Calculator for a broad look at historical trends of various draft slots. The difference between pick N and pick N+1 is a gradually declining curve; the difference between 1.01 and 1.02 is larger than 1.02 and 1.03, and 1.02 and 1.03 are more different than 1.03 and 1.04, and so on. That's before you attach actual players to those picks; when you attach players this year, many would say that 1.02 and 1.03 are less different than 1.03 and 1.04, for example, so the Pick Value Calculator is only a place to start. Try to plug in the players you'll be likely to get (look at ADP) and see how that jibes with the numbers you're getting from the calculator.

 

[Chickenwang]

just joined because I'm in a similar boat. What kind of value is going to be there when the 2nd rd pick comes. I think we'll be lacking a good solid #2 RB, and hence i'm thinking about going WR, WR for 2nd and 3rd rd picks.

I dont see how anyone can be happy with a julius jones or a kevin jones. I'd rather have a Boldin and Wayne instead of those two. I guess it depends on how your league is setup though

 

[Buckna]

I love the number 1, but only because I think LJ will put up huge numbers this year. RB2 is a problem on the turn, but there should be some decent WR's or even Gates available for one of your 2 picks. Bush or CTaylor are the 2 guys I'll be targeting as RB's at the end of 2nd, otherwise I might be waiting until the 4th and hope a guy like Dunn slips.

Otherwise I think you can afford to invest 2 spots later in the draft on the unsettled RB starter combo's like Dillon/Maroney, Foster/Williams, Benson/Jones or etc. I see the RB2 tier as really small this year but the RB3 tier is huge. If I am drafting early, I will likely being grabbing some sort of combo starter as my RB2 and hoping it doesn't devolve into RBBC in whichever situation I draft.

 

[Godsbrother]

I have #1 and was actively talking to the guy that has #4 about a possible trade because I really liked Portis. In light of the Portis injury I am really glad I didn't trade. I am sticking at #1 and barring injury, I'm going with LJ.

 

[BlueDredSo]

I'm going to be very happy if I can pull KJ as my 2nd RB this year. There are obviously better options if they're available, but with a top 3 pick...having LJ, LT, or SA coupled with KJ is solid. Not to mention you'll probably get a pretty good WR as well...I'd almost be tempted to go WR, WR. I guess it depends on who's left. It's scary picking your RB2 though in the 4th rd or later.

 

[Colin Dowling]

Dom Davis is dropping to 24th/25th? Holy cow. He's hurt, not dead.

 

[TwinTurbo]

Dom Davis is dropping to 24th/25th? Holy cow. He's hurt, not dead.

Yes I've seen him drop this far in a couple of my drafts. And to be honest, I've been passing on him too. Everything I have read and heard about his knee makes me think he will definitely miss some time this year. Antsports has him going around #18 on average and I think that is too high. I would rather have McGahee or Bush or the best available WR than a gimp.

 

[Judge Smails]

I have the one slot, and have been really analyzing the 2/3 turn. My league is not RB crazy. 3 WR start league (no TE required), so we typically see don't see 12 owners go RB/RB. My gut tells me is that this is the year that owners are fed up with getting burned with RB1A's and RB2's. I think all of the guys who have disappointed, or have injury concerns, will fall in my draft, at least by a 1/2 a round. Those include J Jones, K Jones, McGahee, D. Davis, Westbrook, etc. Instead, we will have a massive WR run at the top 10 receivers. TO/Smith/CJ/Fitz/Moss/Holt will be gone for sure when it gets to me at 2.12. Probably Harrison as well.

So, that means that the following will be gone for sure (in no order):

1) LJ

2) SA

3) LT

4) Tiki

5) Portis

6) Edge

7) SJax

8) Cadillac

9) RJohnson

10) R Brown

11) Jordan

12) TO

13) Smith

14) CJ

15) Fitz

16) Moss

17) Holt

18) Harrison

19) Manning

So, the question is who will be taken with the 20-23 picks before it gets to me. My bet is that it will be a few of the questionable RB's, or the borderline 2nd tier receivers.

20) McGahee (for sure in this group if not earlier)

Now the ?'s...

RB's here could be D. Davis, Westbrook, C. Taylor, Bush, Droughns (feel he will fall in our draft though, not enough TD's). Only other WR that could possibly go is Boldin.

So, I'm left with taking a WR combo of the likes of Boldin/Chambers/Wayne/R. Williams/Gates, or getting one of the leftover RB's and one of these RB's.

I've never seen a year so predictable, and I really don't like it. I don't necessarily love any of the WR's falling in that spot. Usually, I like to go WR/WR when I have a stud WR in hand (as with LJ this year), but I don't know if that's the best way to go this year. If somehow Harrison falls, I'll go that route. If not, then it's probably Boldin and the best RB. Problem with the 1 hole this year, more than others, is that I feel I'm reaching with 1 pick for sure, and possible both, with the first turn. Other theory is I could grab 2 RB's on the turn and really put pressure on the rest of the teams to get RB's, and try to start a big run there. But I've done this before and with a 3 WR start league this is dangerous unless you can make a trade right away. All of these iffy RB's are just killin' my plans. How do you avoid reaching with the #1 hole this year?

Added note: I am getting intrigued with adding Bush to LJ as my RB2. At least he has upside and isn't boring like the Droughns of the world..Bush/Boldin?

 

[Mystery Achiever]

Judge Smails, I agree with your concerns about reaching. I've never drafted at the turn, though I was close - at #11- last year and didn't like the way it went. I think you have to do WR/RB at 2/3. I'd be afraid to wait until 4.12 for RB2. But maybe that's just me. From what I've seen, I think the most likely collection of RBs available at the 2/3 turn arethe ones you mentioned exc I expect Westbrook should be gone.

I'd be interested in what others have to say but I think if you want someone and don't believe they'll last two rounds til your next pick, you just have to have confidence in your pick and take him.

 

[shadow2k]

I have the one slot, and have been really analyzing the 2/3 turn. My league is not RB crazy. 3 WR start league (no TE required), so we typically see don't see 12 owners go RB/RB. My gut tells me is that this is the year that owners are fed up with getting burned with RB1A's and RB2's. I think all of the guys who have disappointed, or have injury concerns, will fall in my draft, at least by a 1/2 a round. Those include J Jones, K Jones, McGahee, D. Davis, Westbrook, etc. Instead, we will have a massive WR run at the top 10 receivers. TO/Smith/CJ/Fitz/Moss/Holt will be gone for sure when it gets to me at 2.12. Probably Harrison as well.So, that means that the following will be gone for sure (in no order):1) LJ2) SA3) LT4) Tiki5) Portis6) Edge7) SJax8) Cadillac9) RJohnson10) R Brown11) Jordan12) TO13) Smith14) CJ15) Fitz16) Moss17) Holt18) Harrison19) ManningSo, the question is who will be taken with the 20-23 picks before it gets to me. My bet is that it will be a few of the questionable RB's, or the borderline 2nd tier receivers. 20) McGahee (for sure in this group if not earlier) Now the ?'s...RB's here could be D. Davis, Westbrook, C. Taylor, Bush, Droughns (feel he will fall in our draft though, not enough TD's). Only other WR that could possibly go is Boldin.So, I'm left with taking a WR combo of the likes of Boldin/Chambers/Wayne/R. Williams/Gates, or getting one of the leftover RB's and one of these RB's. I've never seen a year so predictable, and I really don't like it. I don't necessarily love any of the WR's falling in that spot. Usually, I like to go WR/WR when I have a stud WR in hand (as with LJ this year), but I don't know if that's the best way to go this year. If somehow Harrison falls, I'll go that route. If not, then it's probably Boldin and the best RB. Problem with the 1 hole this year, more than others, is that I feel I'm reaching with 1 pick for sure, and possible both, with the first turn. Other theory is I could grab 2 RB's on the turn and really put pressure on the rest of the teams to get RB's, and try to start a big run there. But I've done this before and with a 3 WR start league this is dangerous unless you can make a trade right away. All of these iffy RB's are just killin' my plans. How do you avoid reaching with the #1 hole this year?Added note: I am getting intrigued with adding Bush to LJ as my RB2. At least he has upside and isn't boring like the Droughns of the world..Bush/Boldin?

I'm in the exact same boat. Same league settings, same draft trends, and almost the same analysis of who'll be there for me at 24/25. And I too, feel like at least one of the guys will be a reach.There's not really much you can do. I'm simply hoping one of the many DET homers in my league goes for Roy and KJ before then. If Westbrook fell to me, I don't think I could pass him up. But at this point, my plan is to grab the best two WR's left there, and then pray that starts a run on tier 2 WR's, and spend my next few picks on RB's, hoping I can pull something out of my butt.

 

[Mystery Achiever]

There's not really much you can do. I'm simply hoping one of the many DET homers in my league goes for Roy and KJ before then. If Westbrook fell to me, I don't think I could pass him up. But at this point, my plan is to grab the best two WR's left there, and then pray that starts a run on tier 2 WR's, and spend my next few picks on RB's, hoping I can pull something out of my butt.

So, who do you think you could realistically hope for in rounds 4 and 5 for RB2,3 if you wait? (I assume this is not ppr because of the possible westbrook drop?)I'm thinking you'd be looking at Bell, Dillon, Foster, Addai etc here.

 

[delusional]

rds 4-5

tom jones

fred taylor

bush

jamal lewis

droughns

dillon

least in my draft last friday

i had the #1 pick in a 12 man...i went SA Fitzgerald and Gates ( TEs get 2pt 15yds in my league )

my #2-5 RBs are......fred taylor, a.green, t.bell, f.gore

so yea....if TEs are high scores for your league you could grab a RB with ur 2nd/3rd rounder like foster mcgahee chester

 

[Judge Smails]

rds 4-5 tom jonesfred taylor bush jamal lewisdroughnsdillonleast in my draft last fridayi had the #1 pick in a 12 man...i went SA Fitzgerald and Gates ( TEs get 2pt 15yds in my league ) my #2-5 RBs are......fred taylor, a.green, t.bell, f.goreso yea....if TEs are high scores for your league you could grab a RB with ur 2nd/3rd rounder like foster mcgahee chester

Bush is definitely gone by round 3, if not late round 2, after his showing last week. He's the only "sexy" pick out there this year. No other real hype with rookies. If I thought Jamal or Droughns would be there on the 4/5 turn I'd definitely go WR/WR. I don't think they will though. Question, for those thinking of WR/WR on the turn - are you considering Gates, even in a non-TE required league? It doesn't look like he'll skip a beat with Rivers...I'm aggressively trying to trade picks. I just hate the thought of using a 2nd and/or 3rd rounder on WR's that could very realistically end up as 1100 yard, 7-8 TD, run of the mill guys. After Harrrison, all bets are off for reliable WR's getting at least 10 TD's..

 

[shadow2k]

There's not really much you can do. I'm simply hoping one of the many DET homers in my league goes for Roy and KJ before then. If Westbrook fell to me, I don't think I could pass him up. But at this point, my plan is to grab the best two WR's left there, and then pray that starts a run on tier 2 WR's, and spend my next few picks on RB's, hoping I can pull something out of my butt.

So, who do you think you could realistically hope for in rounds 4 and 5 for RB2,3 if you wait? (I assume this is not ppr because of the possible westbrook drop?)I'm thinking you'd be looking at Bell, Dillon, Foster, Addai etc here.

It is PPR, which is why I really doubt he'd be there. But the quote mentioned him, and he is hurting again...so you never know. At 48/49...I'm really not sure what to expect. It's a pretty risky proposition. Looking at ADP's, all four of those guys would be gone. But you could get the Chi RB combo, or F.Taylor with G.Jones later. Maybe grab a couple rookies like D.Williams and Maroney later, as I have no faith in the vets in front of them. You could even reach a little for Gore or C.Brown if you really wanted to, although either/both could make it back for the next turn.I'd think some combo of this pile of crap could spit out a decent #2 option...eventually. Maybe.

 

[Mystery Achiever]

[i'd think some combo of this pile of crap could spit out a decent #2 option...eventually. Maybe.

Well, appealing as this argument is , I'm still thinking RB2 from the 2/3 turn.

 

[texasheat]

anyone taking their RB2 in the 2nd round will be facing similar concerns, lucky for you you'll already have LJ on your roster, no one else has that security blanket. You're not as bad off as you think.

 

[shadow2k]

[i'd think some combo of this pile of crap could spit out a decent #2 option...eventually. Maybe.

Well, appealing as this argument is , I'm still thinking RB2 from the 2/3 turn.

Yeah, well...keep in mind, I'm still trying to convince myself. I just can't see myself being much happier with any of the guys at 25. Dillon, A.Green, Jamal, Foster, KJ, Parker, Bush, Droughns, Dunn, D.Davis, Bell, Addai, J.Jones, C.Taylor...none of those guys seem worth the 25th pick to me. Yet, these are the best RB's that have been available at least once at 2.12 in the mocks I'm looking at.I mean, if all these guys were available to you at 2.12, and you wanted to pick a RB...how do you justify them being any better than the handful of guys that will be there at the next turn?I look at it like this. Either way, I'm going to have a RB2 I'm not totally happy with. But in one case, I'll have a second top 12WR. If you look at WR's that will be there at 48/49...well, I'm not sure I want any of them for my WR2. So I figure getting a good 2nd WR is the better choice. Maybe.

 

[shadow2k]

anyone taking their RB2 in the 2nd round will be facing similar concerns, lucky for you you'll already have LJ on your roster, no one else has that security blanket. You're not as bad off as you think.

True. I don't think I've seen a decent 12 team mock where a team ended up with 2RB's I'd be completely happy with. I don't remember a year quite like this to be honest. Or maybe I'm just really down on a lot of these guys.

 

[Chaka]

To put it another way, would you trade Larry Johnson (assuming you have him #1), Julius Jones, and Anquan Boldin for Alexander (assuming you have him #3), Kevin Jones, and Reggie Wayne?

Yes. But then again I have Reggie Wayne ranked higher than Anquan Boldin.I get your point but this year I see very little difference between LJ, SA & LT. I think all three are equally likely to finish as the #1 RB, especially with the Roaf and Wellbourn retirements (doesn't one of the guards have a2-3 month injury too?) and the losses of Saunders and Vermeil.In light of that give me the #3 pick and the earlier second round pick.

 

[Mystery Achiever]

I look at it like this. Either way, I'm going to have a RB2 I'm not totally happy with. But in one case, I'll have a second top 12WR. If you look at WR's that will be there at 48/49...well, I'm not sure I want any of them for my WR2. So I figure getting a good 2nd WR is the better choice. Maybe.

You make good points and you may end up convincing me..or a least giving me a plan B according to how the draft goes. It is great to have a "#1 Slot" thread that is really about strategy and not just LJ v LT v SA. ETA: To answer your question,yes i think I would be happier with Parker/Taylor/Dunn /Droughns(2/3) than Dillon/Bell/Addai /TJones(4/5)But I haven't looked at the WR drop-off if I wait on WR2. Will do that; Thanks.

 

[bocksheesh]

Yeah, well...keep in mind, I'm still trying to convince myself. I just can't see myself being much happier with any of the guys at 25. Dillon, A.Green, Jamal, Foster, KJ, Parker, Bush, Droughns, Dunn, D.Davis, Bell, Addai, J.Jones, C.Taylor...none of those guys seem worth the 25th pick to me. Yet, these are the best RB's that have been available at least once at 2.12 in the mocks I'm looking at.I mean, if all these guys were available to you at 2.12, and you wanted to pick a RB...how do you justify them being any better than the handful of guys that will be there at the next turn?I look at it like this. Either way, I'm going to have a RB2 I'm not totally happy with. But in one case, I'll have a second top 12WR. If you look at WR's that will be there at 48/49...well, I'm not sure I want any of them for my WR2. So I figure getting a good 2nd WR is the better choice. Maybe.

I'm drafting at #2 and agree with your sense of things. For now. That next batch of RBs we'll be looking at at the 2.11-3.02 spots are a bit iffy.BUT, it's still early, and there's is still time for a lot of movement up and down the draft board. All it will take is a couple big games out of a Chester Taylor or a Reggie Bush, and the 2nd round will filll up with a few more RBs.So, it's a bit early to get too worried. But I agree, that it could get dodgy down there if things don't change.

 

[shadow2k]

especially with the Roaf and Wellbourn retirements (doesn't one of the guards have a2-3 month injury too?) and the losses of Saunders and Vermeil.

No. Waters' foot is hurting, but he should be back in a couple weeks.Welbourn is a non-issue. Turley looked great Sat night in Houston. R.Cruz, Richardson's replacement, laid out solid blocks. Solari, the new OC, has been our OLC for the past 9yrs...things won't be much different, except that they may run a bit more than the past couple of years. LJ's interior line, where he prefers to run (look at the splits on espn), is still in tact.Then again, I live in KC, so... But I've never been known to reach on Chiefs players in the past.

 

[Chaka]

especially with the Roaf and Wellbourn retirements (doesn't one of the guards have a2-3 month injury too?) and the losses of Saunders and Vermeil.

No. Waters' foot is hurting, but he should be back in a couple weeks.Welbourn is a non-issue. Turley looked great Sat night in Houston. R.Cruz, Richardson's replacement, laid out solid blocks. Solari, the new OC, has been our OLC for the past 9yrs...things won't be much different, except that they may run a bit more than the past couple of years. LJ's interior line, where he prefers to run (look at the splits on espn), is still in tact.Then again, I live in KC, so... But I've never been known to reach on Chiefs players in the past.

If you say so, and I totally disagree because the continuity of the five guys starting has been the strength of this unit for years and now they need to break in two guys permanently and a temporary replacement for Waters who is not getting an opportunity to work with the new tackles, but any way you look at it it is still more change than either LT or SA are dealing with. That's why I would prefer the #3 pick this year.

 

[shadow2k]

especially with the Roaf and Wellbourn retirements (doesn't one of the guards have a2-3 month injury too?) and the losses of Saunders and Vermeil.

No. Waters' foot is hurting, but he should be back in a couple weeks.Welbourn is a non-issue. Turley looked great Sat night in Houston. R.Cruz, Richardson's replacement, laid out solid blocks. Solari, the new OC, has been our OLC for the past 9yrs...things won't be much different, except that they may run a bit more than the past couple of years. LJ's interior line, where he prefers to run (look at the splits on espn), is still in tact.Then again, I live in KC, so... But I've never been known to reach on Chiefs players in the past.

If you say so, and I totally disagree because the continuity of the five guys starting has been the strength of this unit for years and now they need to break in two guys permanently and a temporary replacement for Waters who is not getting an opportunity to work with the new tackles, but any way you look at it it is still more change than either LT or SA are dealing with. That's why I would prefer the #3 pick this year.

Welbourn didn't play all 16 in '04 or '05. That's why he's a non-issue. And his replacement(s) both played pretty extensively last year(Sampson/Black)...and Roaf really didn't. The only new guy will be Turley at LT...which is more an issue for Green. But...I'm sure there are 20 other threads on this we could discuss it in. So I'll just leave it at...I'd be happy with any of the top 3 guys.

 

[PrinceofDarkness]

I'd be drooling over a LJ, Reggie Bush, Gates start to my draft.

The way I look at it, after TO, C Johnson, Holt, S Smith, (Fitz?) are gone, I don't want to overpay for a second tier WR.

 

[JAMMIN]

I would think Bush would be a reach at #24 overall. I mean he still has to compete with Deuce and he most likely is not going to get the goal line carries. If Bushes get 12-15 touches a game does he warrant a second round selection over guys like Boldin, Chambers, Moss and RB's such as Mcgahee, DD, KJ and Parker.