Drafting from the 9th spot in a 12 team (1 Viewer)

[Texasmouth]

Here are my results from several mocks where I am drafting from the ninth spot. Some good info for anyone who has the same pick. I tried a couple of different scenarios and I found that grabbing a strong #1 RB first and a strong #1 WR next really worked out the best to me. When I went RB, RB I ended up with a solid #2 RB but the WR I ended up with weren't nearly as good. Personal preference, but some good info nonetheless.

HTH someone.

*No Defense or K required

RB Rudi Johnson CIN 1.09 5

WR Terrell Owens PHI 2.04 9

RB Reuben Droughns CLE 3.09 6

WR Roy Williams DET 4.04 8

QB Donovan McNabb PHI 5.09 9

WR Muhsin Muhammad CHI 6.04 7

TE Jason Witten DAL 7.09 3

RB Lendale White FA 8.04 0

RB Kevan Barlow SFO 9.09 7

RB Ryan Moats PHI 10.04 9

WR Mark Clayton BAL 11.09 7

WR Brandon Stokley IND 12.04 6

QB Chris Simms TBB 13.09 4

WR Roddy White ATL 14.04 5

RB Rudi Johnson CIN 1.09 5

RB Domanick Davis HOU 2.04 5

WR Darrell Jackson SEA 3.09 5

WR Santana Moss WAS 4.04 8

QB Donovan McNabb PHI 5.09 9

RB Dominic Rhodes IND 6.04 6

WR Muhsin Muhammad CHI 7.09 7

WR Koren Robinson MIN 8.04 6

TE Vernon Davis FA 9.09 0

QB Steve McNair TEN 10.04 7

TE Jerramy Stevens SEA 11.09 5

DT Pittsburgh Steelers PIT 12.04 4

PK John Kasay CAR 13.09 9

RB Derrick Blaylock NYJ 14.04 9

RB Edgerrin James IND 1.09 6

RB Brian Westbrook PHI 2.04 9

WR Darrell Jackson SEA 3.09 5

WR Roy Williams DET 4.04 8

QB Donovan McNabb PHI 5.09 9

TE Jason Witten DAL 6.04 3

WR Muhsin Muhammad CHI 7.09 7

RB Ron Dayne DEN 8.04 4

WR Keyshawn Johnson DAL 9.09 3

QB Brett Favre GBP 10.04 6

RB Ryan Moats PHI 11.09 9

DT Dallas Cowboys DAL 12.04 3

PK Adam Vinatieri IND 13.09 6

TE Jermaine Wiggins MIN 14.04 6

RB Rudi Johnson CIN 1.09 5

WR Terrell Owens PHI 2.04 9

WR Darrell Jackson SEA 3.09 5

RB Reuben Droughns CLE 4.04 6

QB Donovan McNabb PHI 5.09 9

TE Jason Witten DAL 6.04 3

WR Koren Robinson MIN 7.09 6

RB Ron Dayne DEN 8.04 4

WR Keyshawn Johnson DAL 9.09 3

QB Steve McNair TEN 10.04 7

RB Ryan Moats PHI 11.09 9

WR Keenan McCardell SDC 12.04 3

PK Josh Brown SEA 13.09 5

DT New England Patriots NEP 14.04 6

(Currently in the 8th round)

RB Ronnie Brown MIA 1.09 8

WR Terrell Owens PHI 2.04 9

RB Corey Dillon NEP 3.09 6

WR Roy Williams DET 4.04 8

RB DeShaun Foster CAR 5.09 9

QB Jake Plummer DEN 6.04 4

WR Muhsin Muhammad CHI 7.09 7

TE Heath Miller PIT 8.04 4

(no K required)

RB Domanick Davis HOU 1.09 5

RB Willis McGahee BUF 2.04 8

WR Reggie Wayne IND 3.09 6

WR Roy Williams DET 4.04 8

QB Donovan McNabb PHI 5.09 9

TE Jason Witten DAL 6.04 3

RB DeAngelo Williams FA 7.09 0

DT Chicago Bears CHI 8.04 7

RB T.J. Duckett ATL 9.09 5

DT Carolina Panthers CAR 10.04 9

WR Kevin Curtis STL 11.09 7

 

[Sinrman]

I like this. It kinda gives people a look at what they are looking at when they pick from that spot in a draft. Good mixtures there, going RB-WR in rounds 1 and 2, then maybe RB-RB in another draft. A few teams there that would do nicely.

 

[avoiding injuries]

I am hoping not to get the 9 pick this year. Do you think McNabb is great value in the 5.09 spot?

 

[Texasmouth]

I am hoping not to get the 9 pick this year. Do you think McNabb is great value in the 5.09 spot?

I like McNabb a lot. Personal preference I guess. I think he has a nice group of young receivers, a great pass catching TE and a really good pass catching back. McNabb will be playing with a chip on his shoulder this season, he has to show he can be great without T.O.

 

[Birdie048]

Appears to very fond of McNabb as QB... QB1 in 5 of the 6 drafts (Plummer is the other).

It's a nice breakdown while utilizing a few different approaches. I took a quick look at some mocks (AntSports/Serious 12 Team) and separate them (using Excel) to sort by pick options....

Here is a the resulting "teams" based on that data... it shows the #9 slot as a RB-RB trend as the majority of projections:

Slot pick #1

1.01 Larry Johnson RB KCC

2.12 Randy Moss WR OAK

3.01 Antonio Gates TE SDC

4.12 Andre Johnson WR HOU

5.01 Deuce McAllister RB NOS

6.12 Nate Burleson WR MIN

7.01 Daunte Culpepper QB MIA

8.12 Jake Plummer QB DEN

9.01 Lendale White RB FA

10.12 Terry Glenn WR DAL

Slot pick #2

1.02 LaDainian Tomlinson RB SDC

2.11 Kevin Jones RB DET

3.02 Anquan Boldin WR ARI

4.11 Jeremy Shockey TE NYG

5.02 Joe Horn WR NOS

6.11 Ron Dayne RB DEN

7.02 Jake Delhomme QB CAR

8.11 Chicago Bears DT CHI

9.02 Eddie Kennison WR KCC

10.11 Greg Jones RB JAC

Slot pick #3

1.03 Shaun Alexander RB SEA

2.10 Marvin Harrison WR IND

3.03 Jamal Lewis RB BAL

4.10 Tom Brady QB NEP

5.03 Tony Gonzalez TE KCC

6.10 Chris Brown RB TEN

7.03 Michael Clayton WR TBB

8.10 L.J. Smith TE PHI

9.03 Sam Gado RB GBP

10.10 Keyshawn Johnson WR DAL

Slot pick #4

1.04 Clinton Portis RB WAS

2.09 Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI

3.04 Chris Chambers WR MIA

4.09 Donald Driver WR GBP

5.04 Thomas Jones RB CHI

6.09 Lee Evans WR BUF

7.04 Jason Witten TE DAL

8.09 Koren Robinson WR MIN

9.04 Kevan Barlow RB SFO

10.09 Carolina Panthers DT CAR

Slot pick #5

1.05 Tiki Barber RB NYG

2.08 Julius Jones RB DAL

3.05 Chester Taylor RB BAL

4.08 Tatum Bell RB DEN

5.05 Joseph Addai RB FA

6.08 Fred Taylor RB JAC

7.05 Drew Bennett WR TEN

8.08 Trent Green QB KCC

9.05 Brett Favre QB GBP

10.08 Ernest Wilford WR JAC

Slot pick #6

1.06 Edgerrin James RB IND

2.07 Torry Holt WR STL

3.06 Reggie Wayne WR IND

4.07 DeShaun Foster RB CAR

5.06 TJ Houshmandzadeh WR CIN

6.07 Alge Crumpler TE ATL

7.06 Frank Gore RB SFO

8.07 Laurence Maroney RB FA

9.06 Braylon Edwards WR CLE

10.07 T.J. Duckett RB ATL

Slot pick #7

1.07 Steven Jackson RB STL

2.06 Chad Johnson WR CIN

3.07 Reggie Bush RB FA

4.06 Santana Moss WR WAS

5.07 Deion Branch WR NEP

6.06 Eli Manning QB NYG

7.07 Michael Vick QB ATL

8.06 Donte' Stallworth WR NOS

9.07 Marion III Barber RB DAL

10.06 Heath Miller TE PIT

Slot pick #8

1.08 LaMont Jordan RB OAK

2.05 Terrell Owens WR PHI

3.08 Willie Parker RB PIT

4.05 Carson Palmer QB CIN

5.08 Matt Hasselbeck QB SEA

6.05 Curtis Martin RB NYJ

7.08 Kurt Warner QB ARI

8.05 Jerry Porter WR OAK

9.08 Vernon Davis TE FA

10.05 Aaron Brooks QB OAK

Slot pick #9

1.09 Ronnie Brown RB MIA

2.04 Willis McGahee RB BUF

3.09 Darrell Jackson WR SEA

4.04 Javon Walker WR GBP

5.09 Cedric Benson RB CHI

6.04 Joey Galloway WR TBB

7.09 Laveranues Coles WR NYJ

8.04 Reggie Brown WR PHI

9.09 Drew Brees QB NOS

10.04 Eric Moulds WR BUF

Slot pick #10

1.10 Rudi Johnson RB CIN

2.03 Peyton Manning QB IND

3.10 Hines Ward WR PIT

4.03 Roy Williams WR DET

5.10 Ahman Green RB GBP

6.03 Dominic Rhodes RB IND

7.10 Chris Cooley TE WAS

8.03 Randy McMichael TE MIA

9.10 Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT

10.03 Matt Jones WR JAC

Slot pick #11

1.11 Carnell Williams RB TBB

2.02 Brian Westbrook RB PHI

3.11 Reuben Droughns RB CLE

4.02 Plaxico Burress WR NYG

5.11 Derrick Mason WR BAL

6.02 Marc Bulger QB STL

7.11 Muhsin Muhammad WR CHI

8.02 Drew Bledsoe QB DAL

9.11 Chris Perry RB CIN

10.02 Kellen Winslow TE CLE

Slot pick #12

1.12 Steve Smith WR CAR

2.01 Domanick Davis RB HOU

3.12 Corey Dillon RB NEP

4.01 Warrick Dunn RB ATL

5.12 Todd Heap TE BAL

6.01 Donovan McNabb QB PHI

7.12 DeAngelo Williams RB FA

8.01 Rod Smith WR DEN

9.12 Kevin Curtis WR STL

10.01 Pittsburgh Steelers DT PIT

 

[Texasmouth]

Appears to very fond of McNabb as QB... QB1 in 5 of the 6 drafts (Plummer is the other).

Yeah, very fond of McNabb, in most drafts, I have found that I can get McNabb in the fifth round. One time I tried to wait on him and grab him in the sixth round and another guy grabbed him a couple of picks later. Your data was really great. Is this based on who was picked most often at that spot?

I tried drafting Ronnie Brown with my 1st pick a few times but McGahee usually doesn't make it to my next pick.

I have really found that my best value in the second round is taking an elite receiver. I have been able to grab Droughns in the third or fourth round almost every time. Corey Dillon was there a lot too but I feel like if you draft Dillon, you have to grab Maroney later on and he isnt there sometimes. Would be rough to have Dillon and no Maroney in my opinion.

 

[avoiding injuries]

Please let me get a top 4 pick...

 

[Texasmouth]

Please let me get a top 4 pick...

Yeah, I mocked a few times from the 2nd/3rd spot and the teams I was putting together were just stacked. Seemed that way atleast. Grabbed LT, Julius, Harrison, Santana Moss in one of those. That is a pretty tough line up.

 

[Keg]

Please let me get a top 4 pick...

Yeah, I mocked a few times from the 2nd/3rd spot and the teams I was putting together were just stacked. Seemed that way atleast. Grabbed LT, Julius, Harrison, Santana Moss in one of those. That is a pretty tough line up.

JJ and Moss dont strike fear into me...JJ is far from a given and i think Moss regresses(sp?) a bit...I mean how many big plays did he have last yr...thats sorta like counting on a DB to get X# of INTS

 

[dlptown]

It is nice to see where some of the slots match up. I would like to be top 3 this year and the #2 slot looks pretty appealing to me. I have alwasy been a RB hog, 20 years in, but I have come to the same conclusion in that if I can get a top 5 WR on the turn back, then I will probably do it as it has been difficult to move RB depth in my league.

 

[Hammerage]

I went 10th today in a money league. I was dreading it but not all bad (just some). Live draft and all showed I think.

Here is what I got going RB/RB/WR. Can only pick 3/4 RB/WR (CBSsportsline).

1-10 Ronnie Brown

2-3 Domanick Davis ( Considered McGahee, Owens or K. Jones)

3-10 Harrison

4-3 Chester Taylor (prob early)

5-10 D. Driver (happy with him as #2)

6-3 Burress

7-10 C. Martin (he is old but hey, its the 7th round)

8-3 Plummer

9-10 Vernon Davis

10-3 Ben Watson

11-10 Volek (prob dump him)

12-3 Colts

Another D and Kicker.

Looking at the draft this would have probably been nearly the same if I had gone 9th or 11th.

 

[Mapmaker]

I'm presently mocking from the 9th on Antsports and so far RB,WR,RB,WR has netted me

R.Brown - 1.9

S.Smith - 2.4

C.Taylor - 3.9

D.Driver - 4.4

J.Shockey - 5.9

E.Manning - 6.4

R.Dayne - 7.9

R.Smith - 8.4

A.Brooks - 9.9

Baltimore Ravens - 10.4

I think with that group as my weekly starters I'm gonna have a pretty good season



edit to update picks

 

[Hammerage]

That would be pretty good Mapmaker. I think the key on the ends is just keep close track of who is out there and that the guys just below you are going to do and draft dynamically (duh). But from what I have seen 9th-12th is not a death sentence this year and never has been, I think the first round pick is just a bit more fickle and less of a lock.

 

[Mapmaker]

I personally don't see this season as being a RB, RB type of year ... but each and every draft is different and from whatever slot you pick from different value will be presented to you along the way ... the trick in the whole piece is to remain flexable from round to round and to recognize value when it's presented and be wise enough to take advantage of it ...

 

[avoiding injuries]

Every year there is a team that doesn't draft RB, RB(or at least grabs their RB2 in rd3) is always trying to move 2-3 players for someone elses starting RB. Never fails.

Hammerage: I lkie what you did with the spot. I may have taken one of your other choices in rd2(KJ), but overall I like it.

 

[Texasmouth]

Please let me get a top 4 pick...

Yeah, I mocked a few times from the 2nd/3rd spot and the teams I was putting together were just stacked. Seemed that way atleast. Grabbed LT, Julius, Harrison, Santana Moss in one of those. That is a pretty tough line up.

JJ and Moss dont strike fear into me...JJ is far from a given and i think Moss regresses(sp?) a bit...I mean how many big plays did he have last yr...thats sorta like counting on a DB to get X# of INTS

Yeah but those guys are both my #2's on that team.

 

[Texasmouth]

I'm presently mocking from the 9th on Antsports and so far RB,WR,RB,WR has netted me

R.Brown - 1.9

S.Smith - 2.4

C.Taylor - 3.9

D.Driver - 4.4

I think with that group as my weekly starters I'm gonna have a pretty good season

I like everything except the Chester Taylor pick. I am not sold on the guy myself. He still has to beat out Mewelde Moore to win the job as well. A little early for him in my opinion. Driver is going to work out nice this year, especially that late.

I am really going back and forth on whether to take Ronnie Brown or Rudi Johnson with the first pick. I like Brown a lot but Rudi seems to be the safer pick to me. Edge fell to me in a couple of mocks. Would love to see that happen again.

 

[Keg]

I'm presently mocking from the 9th on Antsports and so far RB,WR,RB,WR has netted me

R.Brown - 1.9

S.Smith - 2.4

C.Taylor - 3.9

D.Driver - 4.4

I think with that group as my weekly starters I'm gonna have a pretty good season     

I like everything except the Chester Taylor pick. I am not sold on the guy myself. He still has to beat out Mewelde Moore to win the job as well. A little early for him in my opinion. Driver is going to work out nice this year, especially that late.

I am really going back and forth on whether to take Ronnie Brown or Rudi Johnson with the first pick. I like Brown a lot but Rudi seems to be the safer pick to me. Edge fell to me in a couple of mocks. Would love to see that happen again.

umm its chesters job to lose...moore is gonna be nothing more then a guy that gives chester a blow....And I wouldnt want JJ as my #3RB and would be comfortable with Santana as my #3 but not my #2

fwiw Chester Taylor easily will score more fantasy points then JJ this yr

 

[Hammerage]

Every year there is a team that doesn't draft RB, RB(or at least grabs their RB2 in rd3) is always trying to move 2-3 players for someone elses starting RB. Never fails.

Hammerage: I lkie what you did with the spot. I may have taken one of your other choices in rd2(KJ), but overall I like it.

Hey AI, after I drafted I thought maybe I agree with you on the second pick. KJ may be the safer pick injury wise and has decent upside. I am just not sure what to make of him after last year. At least when DD takes the field I feel like he is giving me a full effort, even if he is losing, but the kicker is he often doesn't take the field! LOL.

 

[Mapmaker]

Every year there is a team that doesn't draft RB, RB(or at least grabs their RB2 in rd3) is always trying to move 2-3 players for someone elses starting RB. Never fails.

Hammerage: I lkie what you did with the spot. I may have taken one of your other choices in rd2(KJ), but overall I like it.

Hey AI, after I drafted I thought maybe I agree with you on the second pick. KJ may be the safer pick injury wise and has decent upside. I am just not sure what to make of him after last year. At least when DD takes the field I feel like he is giving me a full effort, even if he is losing, but the kicker is he often doesn't take the field! LOL.

I don't see the RB position being any problem for you winning a little ca$h this year .. where I see weakness is in the QB position ... I'd have looked really hard in the 7th and if I'd have followed your lead there and gone with Martin .. then I certainly would have followed up with QB, QB in 8 & 9 .... Jake scares me enough as it is .. but Jake and Volek who's only gonna be a stand in while Young gets ready for a mid - to - late season debut makes me think you could have put yourself out of the money right there .... aside from that .. I'm likeing this team a lot coming out of the 10 hole !

 

[Shark Attack]

I am hoping not to get the 9 pick this year. Do you think McNabb is great value in the 5.09 spot?

 

[Texasmouth]

I'm presently mocking from the 9th on Antsports and so far RB,WR,RB,WR has netted me

R.Brown - 1.9

S.Smith - 2.4

C.Taylor - 3.9

D.Driver - 4.4

I think with that group as my weekly starters I'm gonna have a pretty good season

I like everything except the Chester Taylor pick. I am not sold on the guy myself. He still has to beat out Mewelde Moore to win the job as well. A little early for him in my opinion. Driver is going to work out nice this year, especially that late.

I am really going back and forth on whether to take Ronnie Brown or Rudi Johnson with the first pick. I like Brown a lot but Rudi seems to be the safer pick to me. Edge fell to me in a couple of mocks. Would love to see that happen again.

umm its chesters job to lose...moore is gonna be nothing more then a guy that gives chester a blow....And I wouldnt want JJ as my #3RB and would be comfortable with Santana as my #3 but not my #2

fwiw Chester Taylor easily will score more fantasy points then JJ this yr

LOL to the fact that you say all of this so matter-of-factly like you all ready know it happened. Link to any of this?

 

[Birdie048]

Your data was really great. Is this based on who was picked most often at that spot?

I used the Ant Sports Serious Mock data for a 12 Team league with TE required. http://www.antsports.com/adp.aspx

I sorted it by draft slot and aligned them by pick order. Simple excel sorting stuff.

The key I see of this is how late the QB's were going... P Manning at 2.03 but the next QB (C Palmer) at 4.05 (#41 in Pick Slot #8). IIRC, last year, several QB's were going in rounds 2-3 (Peyton, Carson, Delhomme, Brady, McNabb, Culp). The injury impact has resulted in a shift in attention.

 

[el centro]

Slot pick #6

1.06 Edgerrin James RB IND

2.07 Torry Holt WR STL

3.06 Reggie Wayne WR IND

4.07 DeShaun Foster RB CAR

5.06 TJ Houshmandzadeh WR CIN

6.07 Alge Crumpler TE ATL

7.06 Frank Gore RB SFO

8.07 Laurence Maroney RB FA

9.06 Braylon Edwards WR CLE

10.07 T.J. Duckett RB ATL

Not liking my 6-spot.

 

[Chaz]

As one who is picking 9th in a draft starting today, I found this thread particularly interesting. Thanks!

 

[metoo]

I went 10th today in a money league. I was dreading it but not all bad (just some). Live draft and all showed I think.

Here is what I got going RB/RB/WR. Can only pick 3/4 RB/WR (CBSsportsline).

1-10 Ronnie Brown

2-3 Domanick Davis ( Considered McGahee, Owens or K. Jones)

3-10 Harrison

4-3 Chester Taylor (prob early)

5-10 D. Driver (happy with him as #2)

6-3 Burress

7-10 C. Martin (he is old but hey, its the 7th round)

8-3 Plummer

9-10 Vernon Davis

10-3 Ben Watson

11-10 Volek (prob dump him)

12-3 Colts

Another D and Kicker.

Looking at the draft this would have probably been nearly the same if I had gone 9th or 11th.

The only pick I don't like is 2.3(Davis). Burress at 6.3 is great value.

 

[Bri]

you're targetting specific players. Quick Guess-Roy Williams is on all but one team and McNabb's on a lot too and so is Witten.

It's cool, draft as ya want and thanks for sharing. However, it skews these results alot. I would ask if you're gonna do something like that then try and take the same player X a round later, then another round....see how far he falls. Also if you don't get player X, who do you get "stuck" with?

Do you rank guys in tiers? Hold out as long as you can or doubleup on a position or something....be more interesting to me if ya played around more. In my experience, ya learn more treating them as practice and fun(playing around trying things) than simply trying to get the best team in a formulaic way.

Sorry if I seem I do appreciate ya posting this

 

[Texasmouth]

I'm presently mocking from the 9th on Antsports and so far RB,WR,RB,WR has netted me

R.Brown - 1.9

S.Smith - 2.4

C.Taylor - 3.9

D.Driver - 4.4

I think with that group as my weekly starters I'm gonna have a pretty good season

I like everything except the Chester Taylor pick. I am not sold on the guy myself. He still has to beat out Mewelde Moore to win the job as well. A little early for him in my opinion. Driver is going to work out nice this year, especially that late.

I am really going back and forth on whether to take Ronnie Brown or Rudi Johnson with the first pick. I like Brown a lot but Rudi seems to be the safer pick to me. Edge fell to me in a couple of mocks. Would love to see that happen again.

umm its chesters job to lose...moore is gonna be nothing more then a guy that gives chester a blow....And I wouldnt want JJ as my #3RB and would be comfortable with Santana as my #3 but not my #2

fwiw Chester Taylor easily will score more fantasy points then JJ this yr

LOL to the fact that you say all of this so matter-of-factly like you all ready know it happened. Link to any of this?

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=244719

 

[Texasmouth]

you're targetting specific players. Quick Guess-Roy Williams is on all but one team and McNabb's on a lot too and so is Witten.

It's cool, draft as ya want and thanks for sharing. However, it skews these results alot. I would ask if you're gonna do something like that then try and take the same player X a round later, then another round....see how far he falls. Also if you don't get player X, who do you get "stuck" with?

Do you rank guys in tiers? Hold out as long as you can or doubleup on a position or something....be more interesting to me if ya played around more. In my experience, ya learn more treating them as practice and fun(playing around trying things) than simply trying to get the best team in a formulaic way.

Sorry if I seem I do appreciate ya posting this

Actually, the QB went very different in each draft, I only drafted McNabb in all but one because that is who I am targeting and I wanted to see who would be there each time, before and after McNabb. I found that in some drafts Brady, Manning and Palmer all went before McNabb but in some drafts McNabb was still there at the same time as Palmer and Brady. The one draft I tried to let McNabb come to me in the sixth, he went a pick or so after me. Some of the notes I took, I didn't share here because I didn't know if they were that important. Taking McNabb every time was part of that, I took notes on who was there each time.

I drafted with different guys every time. Some guys were the same but mostly different guys.

Youre right though, the next five drafts I will switch it up. I just wanted to see how consistent I could be. I can't say this is who you will probably get if I dont do it a few times to make sure......

I plan to do probably 50 more of these Mock drafts, I just enjoy doing them anyway and I like posting hte data for everyone to check out.

Thanks for the imput though.