Drafting from the middle of the pack (1 Viewer)

[((Morpheus))]

Generally I love drafting from the middle of the pack in a serpentine draft, but I can't help but feel like the middle (especially 6-8) sucks this year.

Assuming the big 5 RB's are gone, who are you guys targeting in the 1st/2nd from the middle of the draft order? I've never picked a QB this early, but I'm starting to think that may be my best bet. Any thoughts?

 

[massraider]

Generally I love drafting from the middle of the pack in a serpentine draft, but I can't help but feel like the middle (especially 6-8) sucks this year.Assuming the big 5 RB's are gone, who are you guys targeting in the 1st/2nd from the middle of the draft order? I've never picked a QB this early, but I'm starting to think that may be my best bet. Any thoughts?

I haven't given it much thought, but once the top RBs are gone, I'd take Randy Moss.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Generally I love drafting from the middle of the pack in a serpentine draft, but I can't help but feel like the middle (especially 6-8) sucks this year.

Assuming the big 5 RB's are gone, who are you guys targeting in the 1st/2nd from the middle of the draft order? I've never picked a QB this early, but I'm starting to think that may be my best bet. Any thoughts?

There simply is no way that the WR/QB offers me the value that I would want. The reason being - you can get solid production from those positions in later rounds, and you know it.

Its at this point when top drafters are able to use their acumen to decipher who is the RB of choice.

Is it safe? No. Do you always hit? No. But it wins you championships.

Easy to understand the QB/WR thought at #11-12. But not at #6-10.

And a BIG point to remember is that these RBs will certainly flesh themselves out by draft day (provided you draft in August).

One of the rookies will come into focus and players like LJ, Portis, Grant and Drew will have to you liking at least one of their prospects for being a high performer in '08.

And you simply wont want to risk 8+ additional selections before your next pick. You could miss on all the predictable potential top RBs all together. Not good. You will still have an elite WR/QB to choose from in the second.

While I wouldn't begrudge someone from taking a risk and trying to use his value system in a non traditional way, I also would think many veteran owners understand "what works" even if they don't (care to) understand the nuances/scenarios/math behind it working. Only if for some reason you really don't find that any of the other 27 starting running backs will bust loose would I skip the RB selection. But that would be next to impossible in my case from the 6-9 positions.

 

[mlball77]

I've done a few mocks recently and drafted from the 6-8 spots, and I have typically been focusing on Gore. He is a guy that I think has great upside this year, particularly in PPR. Depending on the league structure, I have been focusing on the best available WR in the 2nd rd.

 

[daddymag]

I've played every FF season so far without elite WRs. My first year I had to chase RBs all season long, I hated it. So I've gone RB-RB since. This season I've been considering going WR-WR just to really shake it up - BUT. You've made me realize what happened last season. I drafted 8th, got Parker and McGahee. Boring, right? Parker got yards but no TDs. McGahee never had a great game but kept putting up one TD per game. Bottom line, I never had to really worry about which RBs to play. Nothing spectacular, but consistent. My other picks won me the league, but those top two always gave me numbers I could count on.

 

[Captain Hook]

Really depends on many factors:

- league size?

- ppr?

- 4 pts or 6 pts for passing TDs

If it is PPR then there is a good case for Moss being taken after the first two tiers or RB, but I think you are wrong that there is not a good RB pick there. Barber and Portis and LJ are certainly considerations.

If it is 6 pts for passing TDs, you can even make a case for taking Brady earlier (especially in smaller leagues).

I guarantee that in most of the $$$ leagues this year both Brady and Moss will go somewhere in the first round - with GOOD reason

Plus I still like drafting in the middle because the guys on both ends of the draft have to reach and wait.....or wait and reach if you prefer, but the point is there is tons of Value that slips towards the middle of the draft.

 

[TheWick]

This is why I only play PPR. Base scoring systems favor the top picks in a serpentine even more than other systems in my opinion.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

This is why I only play PPR. Base scoring systems favor the top picks in a serpentine even more than other systems in my opinion.

Banzai Method!!! Then it's all good.

 

[((Morpheus))]

I intentionally omitted league details because I didn't want this to become an AC post.

I guess it comes down to gambling on Brady/Moss vs. playing RB roulette with the likes of Gore/MBIII/LJ/Portis. I'm curious to see some mock drafts from the middle positions...

 

[BigSteelThrill]

I guess it comes down to gambling on Brady

I just don't see it.Flash back to the year after Manning just destroyed everything. They must repeat or you are losing an absolute ton of value. A close to average year (when compared to the great season) can cripple your teamAt RB, all you need is a healthy Barber, Gore, Portis and you will get a solid return on your pick. I actually think Brady and Moss CAN repeat... but the problem is that they MUST.

 

[((Morpheus))]

I guess it comes down to gambling on Brady

I just don't see it.Flash back to the year after Manning just destroyed everything. They must repeat or you are losing an absolute ton of value. A close to average year (when compared to the great season) can cripple your teamAt RB, all you need is a healthy Barber, Gore, Portis and you will get a solid return on your pick. I actually think Brady and Moss CAN repeat... but the problem is that they MUST.

Thus the "gamble."

 

[Dirty Weasel]

For those at picks 6 thru, say 10, if you are unsure, you can always try to trade down (or up, but that's unlikely). You could have some fun and try to get Peyton and Wayne from the 12 spot (or Brady and Moss in a RB-hoarding league). I'm not saying it's a great move, but it's not complete suicide. I've seen Edge and FWP fall to the 5th, and I'd gladly have them as my 2 RB's at the 3/4 turn.

 

[the spanker]

My league is PPR with QBs scoring 6pts for TDs.

Let's see, a hypothetical simulation here of the first round. Players of course could go in any order:

1. LT

2. Westy

3. SJax

4. AP

5. Addai

6. Gore

7. Moss

8. Brady

9. Barber

10. Portis

11. Manning

12. T.O.

All of these picks are worthy first rounders. In PPR you can even make a case for Bush, McGahee, LJ, Grant and even Wayne and in the late first round.

I don't see the middle picks being an issue myself. Am I missing something here?

 

[Harald]

Marshawn Lynch and don't look back. Ridiculously easy schedule, great OL and great schedule. Nice hands and just got promoted to 3rd downs as well.

 

[ceo3west]

Marshawn Lynch and don't look back. Ridiculously easy schedule, great OL and great schedule. Nice hands and just got promoted to 3rd downs as well.

I agree, I think Lynch is in for a big year and I think the Bills will surprise. Lynch is one of the last true workhorses left in the league, he should be drafted accordingly.