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drafting in a guppy league (1 Viewer)

bucsbaby

Footballguy
Depends how well you know the minnows. If you know someone like DRich will fall to the 12th round or something like that, you can wait on your RB3.

Otherwise, the same principle applies -- just snap up value wherever it presents itself. Your team should just be a lot stronger in the league with fewer sharks.

 

nipbac

Footballguy
Along these lines does anyone have a good source for non shark adp? Looking at the 14 team flex adp from fantasy football calculator it has Rodgers/Brees as the first qbs going in the 3rd round. In my local league I would wager that 3-4 qbs will go in the 1st round. I see the same problem with "expert" mock drafts. It would be helpful to have adp data that falls more in line with what could be expected from casual players.

 

Late225

Footballguy
I always use the running back default rankings by Yahoo to gauge where everyone else will draft players. They usually follow the Yahoo automatic rankings. Knowing how their rankings differ from your rankings will go a long way. It will help you better gauge who will fall to you and who will be gone. Also, many players in those leagues take defenses and kickers earlier than you would expect.

 

meyerj31

Footballguy
Along these lines does anyone have a good source for non shark adp? Looking at the 14 team flex adp from fantasy football calculator it has Rodgers/Brees as the first qbs going in the 3rd round. In my local league I would wager that 3-4 qbs will go in the 1st round. I see the same problem with "expert" mock drafts. It would be helpful to have adp data that falls more in line with what could be expected from casual players.
Most guppies use default ESPN, Yahoo, or CBS rankings. They usually don't adjust for PPR or different point scoring. The default lists are usually non-PPR. I keep a default ESPN ranking next to me as I draft. I basically take the best player that won't be there my next turn, even if he's not the best player on the board. DRich is a perfect example... according to value he's probably worth a late 4th or early 5th.... but I'm sure I'll get him in the 6th easily. My Rb3/4 in those leagues will probably be Drich/Dwill, so I'm OK with reaching to get a stud WR or two earlier than normal.... say Dez in the early 2nd.

 
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habsfan

Footballguy
I always use the running back default rankings by Yahoo to gauge where everyone else will draft players. They usually follow the Yahoo automatic rankings. Knowing how their rankings differ from your rankings will go a long way. It will help you better gauge who will fall to you and who will be gone. Also, many players in those leagues take defenses and kickers earlier than you would expect.
My experience has largely been to the contrary. Many "guppies" are impulsive. If they want a guy, they often don't get hung up on what pick they use. Chaos often reigns...

 

steveski

Footballguy
I always use the running back default rankings by Yahoo to gauge where everyone else will draft players. They usually follow the Yahoo automatic rankings. Knowing how their rankings differ from your rankings will go a long way. It will help you better gauge who will fall to you and who will be gone. Also, many players in those leagues take defenses and kickers earlier than you would expect.
My experience has largely been to the contrary. Many "guppies" are impulsive. If they want a guy, they often don't get hung up on what pick they use. Chaos often reigns...
One guy in my league picked Peyton Manning in the early 2nd round last year. We all had a good chuckle then paid dearly for it the rest of the season.

 

DWI

Footballguy
My work league has some guppies and I hate it. No telling who they will take. I have learned not to get cute treat them like sharks and draft value. Any plan you try to make will be ruined when they take a player 5 rounds early.

 

Ruffrodys05

IBL Representative
As others have noted, guppies don't worry whether or not the player they want could be had 3-4 rounds later, they're gonna take them when they want to. I think it's almost a waste of time to have a plan......almost. You at least have to prep for the 1st and 2nd rounds. After that, just follow the value wherever it may fall....to an extent that you have a balanced roster and bye weeks covered for key positions. If you are not forced to draft more than one K or D, don't. You can cover those byes with waivers.

 

Khy

Footballguy
I always use the running back default rankings by Yahoo to gauge where everyone else will draft players. They usually follow the Yahoo automatic rankings. Knowing how their rankings differ from your rankings will go a long way. It will help you better gauge who will fall to you and who will be gone. Also, many players in those leagues take defenses and kickers earlier than you would expect.
My experience has largely been to the contrary. Many "guppies" are impulsive. If they want a guy, they often don't get hung up on what pick they use. Chaos often reigns...
One guy in my league picked Peyton Manning in the early 2nd round last year. We all had a good chuckle then paid dearly for it the rest of the season.
Yeah this happens in my league every season... big money league and half of it is guppies who are simply free money. Every year we end up having one guy who makes the dumbest draft pick that works out. We had a guy last season who drafted AP with 1.02 and everyone was dying laughing. He showed us... granted his 2nd round pick was Joe Flacco and it got real ugly after that. His team was awful but man that AP pick worked out lol

 

DawnBTVS

Footballguy
Also this cannot be emphasized enough

"The guppy is just as smart as you are. He just doesn't follow the standard fantasy shark gameplan, and that makes him different. And unless you know how the guppy is different, that makes him dangerous." - Sean McIndoe's article on FBG

Expect players to be 'reached' for, expect runs, expect picks that make you go WTH? out loud, and expect some competition at the end of the year. For all the value that you can get, a guppy can hit a home run by reaching for 3-4 players and running away with the league too. All it takes is a guppy taking Drew Brees in R1, CJ Spiller in R2, and somebody like a Dez Bryant (if there) in R3. Suddenly said "guppy" can have a roster that may be light on depth but is very front loaded on talent.

Also be aware that some guppies will take a starting QB and backup along with 1 starting RB and 2 starting WRs before they address TE/K/D. On the flipside, another guppy may draft a QB, 2 RBs, 1 WR, and 1 TE. As others have stated, just let the value fall to you but don't be afraid to be aggressive in making a move here or there either.

 

Evilgrin 72

Distributor of Pain
draft qb and te earlier than normal and then pick up the value that falls at rb/wr
I actually found the opposite to be true this year. I helped my wife draft her team in her inaugural work league and there were roughly 4-5 newcomers among the 10 teams. She picked at #7 and both Spiller and Charles were still on the board. We had Charles ranked 1 spot higher, but I suspected that people were shying away due to the uncertainty with his foot injury (this draft was last Friday) so I advised her to take Spiller and see if the fear continued to breed. Sure enough, people started wondering why Charles was dropping and avoided him, not wanting to be the "one who took the injured guy" and we were able to grab Charles at 2.4 (this is a PPR league by the way.) At 3.7, Graham was still available. Clearly, guppies who read ESPN and are advised to "wait on TE and QB" are doing so to a fault. We grabbed Graham in the 3rd and sat back on QB until 8.4, picking up Stafford at that point (6 pt pass TDs). People were waiting WAY too long on QBs. In the 4th through 7th, we were able to round out the team with Cobb, Amendola, Antonio Brown, and LeVeon Bell (although that last one is making me a little nervous now.)

I'd say wait on TE and QB and see if extreme value falls like this. Gronkowski fell all the way to the 9th and we grabbed him too - so now we have Graham and Gronk, either to flex one or trade one for a WR1 at mid-season. Even if value like this deosn't drop, you can probably count on a few bad picks at QB or TE (7 TEs went ahead of Gronk, and Eli Manning was drafted ahead of Stafford) that enable you to get a guy like Finley or Stafford in the 8th-10th rounds.

 
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SameSongNDance

Footballguy
I've never used the term guppy as seems like a really douchey term to me. :shrug:

I almost forgot about that thread from last year though, thanks for digging it up. Holy #### was that entertaining.

 

Spike

Footballguy
My work league has some guppies and I hate it. No telling who they will take. I have learned not to get cute treat them like sharks and draft value. Any plan you try to make will be ruined when they take a player 5 rounds early.
Good points here.

 

Ariakis

Footballguy
I have one local league in particular that gives me fits and even has a pretty stiff buy-in (not just a fun league). One guy showed up with a 2011 cheatsheet last season as he forgot to print out anything yet his team still did OK (he didn't draft any rookies because he didn't know their names). Several have to ask what position a player is atlest once a round during the live draft. I am usually the only drafter using any kind of software package as most have a printed magazine.

You would think it would be easier but it is not for the reasons outlined:

  • You can take a generic cheat sheet for ADP reference and assume that is CLOSE to how the draft will go.
  • Those buzz players that FBG's use as the key to their perfect draft articles (get this RB in the 4th, this WR in the 5th, etc) almost always are gone. Why? Because they are buzz players for everyone and these types of drafters do not focus on value.
  • They will almost always join in on a positional run. Great if you don't need that position but not ideal when you do. This is why ADP can go out the door at times.
  • Top QB's will go early and once the run starts let the reaching begin.
  • Last year I punted QB because 14 were gone by the 6th round.
  • I ended up with Locker, Wilson, and then added Kaepernick midseason. Not sure I'd get that lucky again this year because everyone started taking QB2's while I was loading up on my favorite midround RB/WR's.
  • Take BPA and try not to overload any one position to take you out of the market later.
  • As 10 QB's go in the top 4 rounds and you load up on RB's you may face a point where value says RB but you just can't afford the roster space. Come the 8th round do you take an amazing value that fell such as Lacy or Vereen as your RB6 or finally suck it up and take Vick knowing 6 more QB's may go before you pick again?
  • Strongly consider an upside down draft (depending on scoring, etc):
  • RB early 1st but QB, Graham, WR later are all in play as RB's in the 20-30 range WILL drop.
  • If you take a QB you may just start the run. Last year my top 5 picks were Megatron, Gronk, Martin, Marshall, and Ridley. I drafted Cobb late and picked up Murray off of the waiver wire. Virtually a perfect draft given how QB played out until Gronk got hurt by which time my QB was big-time.
  • Assume even from a late position you will get WW help either by being proactive or more knowledgeable midseason.
  • If you punt a position or hit a major injury it is usually recoverable.
  • Be prepared to be frustrated and lose more often than you think.
  • I manage to lose to the Mark Sanchez drafter almost every year!
  • I manage to face the high scorer and have near the highest points scored against in the league almost every season?
  • Random bad luck ... you project to double up a team and end up the low scorer for the week ... usually week 15 of the playoffs.
Maybe I am doing it wrong?!?! On paper and entering the playoffs (I never miss) I am always a favorite and usually finish at or near high points for. I've won the league once in 10+ seasons.

 

Spike

Footballguy
From what I've seen, in "guppy" leagues you'll see a lot of homerism...easiest to use to your advantage if it's a regional league.

For example, if you live in Wisconsin and it's a guppy league, chances are good that Packer players will be drafted before their ADP.

 

Buckfast 1

Footballguy
My experience with "guppy" leagues has been that QBs are almost always over-drafted. In my work "guppy" league, it is not uncommon for 4 or 5 QBs to go in the first round. I always just load up on RBs and WRs early on and then be the last team to take a starting QB.

However, my work league just switched to a start 2-QB format this year, which could mean that the top 15 QBs are off the board by the end of Round 3. I'm not quite sure how to handle this change yet, as I may have to reach for QB this year just to get a viable #1 QB.

I've also found that most "guppy" owners will generally follow the league host website's pre-rankings. I think it is a good idea to have a copy of those rankings available and to take a look to see what guys you think are most underrated on the pre-ranking cheatsheet as guys to target in the mid-rounds.

 
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LawFitz

Footballguy
Somebody already said it, but guppies don't adjust media and adp rankings for the nuances of your specific league scoring...

E.g.

PPR

positional requirements and or flexibility (>1 QB, >2 RB, >2 WR, >1 TE)

Return Yards

Big play bonuses

4 or 6 pt TD passes

Defensive Team scoring - IDP; shutout bonuses

Guppies draft based on rankings and adp with standardized rules that you can exploit if you understand the effects of the variances in your league's rules from standard. Which players benefit?

Big bump for high volume catchers and WR in general in PPR. Nice bump for the Percy Harvins and Randall Cobbs in return leagues.

Starting requirements create all sorts of opportunity if the requirements create disproportionate scarcity between one position (usually RB) vs others. IMO anything less than 2RB/3WR ratio creates imbalance in favor of RB, but that's JMO. Whatever the ratio is, make sure you adjust your RB and WR draft plans accordingly. Similar process for 2 QB.

 
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