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Drafting Position Strategy (1 Viewer)

Helm

Fruitcake
What strategy does everyone usually go with in their draft? I realize it also depends on who's left on the board but I think the first four or five rounds makes or breaks your team's success. The other 10 rounds or so are also important but not as structural as the first handful. I usually go with RB, RB, WR, QB or RB, RB, WR, WR, QB. Then anthing after that I go with the best player available in locations where I still need players.Typical scoring with typical starting roster(QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, K, Def)

 
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Mr. Anonymous

Footballguy
It depends very, very heavily on your league's scoring rules, esp. for defenses, and especially for how many points you get for receptions and QB TDs.I was just looking at this, while it was fresh on my mind, in terms of "what I ought" to do next year, avoiding mistakes I made this year. (I'm in my championship, but not necessarily because my draft worked - lots of injuries and failures - more because of waiver wire and trading activity.The key element in my drafting - which I did follow this year - is to invest no more than one top six draft pick on a WR. They are easy to find on the waiver wire, and old ones can often be found in the middle rounds.This is my "plan" for next year. It's not that much different from this year, except for pushing defense back (while the top DTs are VERY valuable in my league, it is hard to pick 'em - I picked the top three projected DT, the Bills, which was an utter waste of a fourth round pick.)1. RB#12. RB#23. TE#1 (if Gates)/QB#1 (if available)/WR#14. RB#35. QB#1/WR#16. WR#1/TE#17. WR#2/RB#48. DT#1/WR#29. QB#2/DT#110. DT#2/QB#211. RB#4/DT#212. WR#313. PK#114. PK#215. TE#216. WR#4

 
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bagger.

The One Play Quiz
It depends what spot I am drafting at, and who is available in each round although I typically have a good idea of who that is via ADP.This year in the first few spots I went RB/WR/WR and in the last few spots I went RB/RB/RB.

 

bagger.

The One Play Quiz
I also never grab a TE or QB in the first 5 rounds.That is probably one of the biggest mistakes people can make.

 

einstein2u

Footballguy
FF Rookie....what if you have a late pick....10-12.....it seems like passing up on a Smith or Palmer...would be a mistake...since....the guys with early picks...load up on RB#1 and WR#1.....????is my thinking wrong?

 

Nemesis

Footballguy
1. RB#1

2. RB#2

3. TE#1 (if Gates)/QB#1 (if available)/WR#1

4. RB#3

5. QB#1/WR#1

6. WR#1/TE#1

7. WR#2/RB#4

8. DT#1/WR#2

9. QB#2/DT#1

10. DT#2/QB#2

11. RB#4/DT#2

12. WR#3

13. PK#1

14. PK#2

15. TE#2

16. WR#4
Personally, I don't like these picks b/c there is not much upside (or potential to find trade bait). You're better off waiting until your TE#1 and K#1 have their bye week and finding a replacement thru the WW. I'd rather select a RB#5 and WR#5 (or RB#5 and #6).

 

Helm

Fruitcake
FF Rookie....what if you have a late pick....10-12.....it seems like passing up on a Smith or Palmer...would be a mistake...since....the guys with early picks...load up on RB#1 and WR#1.....????

is my thinking wrong?
And it shows... there's a reason why people stack up on RB's. While they're doing that you pick a QB and then what? Your team ends up at the bottom of the league. You only start one QB and there are plenty of good starters to pick from. As for RB there are few that will give you decent points game after game(about 10 or so that are respectable), so they are very valuable. WR's same theory... where I usually go wrong is drafting a TE. This could be a very pivotable position that I just haven't mastered. Taking a TE before round four or five is just hard to do.
 
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Mathematics

Footballguy
What strategy does everyone usually go with in their draft? I realize it also depends on who's left on the board but I think the first four or five rounds makes or breaks your team's success. The other 10 rounds or so are also important but not as structural as the first handful. I usually go with RB, RB, WR, QB or RB, RB, WR, WR, QB. Then anthing after that I go with the best player available in locations where I still need players.

Typical scoring with typical starting roster(QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, K, Def)
I think the first four-five rounds are important, but the middle and late rounds are just as important. There were (and are always) a lot of busts in the first and second rounds and you need to take note of values in the middle rounds. Steve Smith, Palmer, Larry Johnson, Fitzgerald, Boldin, Thomas Jones were all available in 5 round and up. You need to have a complete draft to be successful.
 

snogger

Footballguy
Besides Luck, I think how you fill out your roster is just as important as stating "I'm drafting RB, RB, RB, WR,WR,etc.... Also FA/Trades throughout the year can make or break your season more then how you drafted. As an example take a look at these draft picks from this year for the owner in our league that had the #1 spot: LaDainian Tomlinson, SD Torry Holt, StL Javon Walker*, GB LaMont Jordan*, Oak Tom Brady, NE Brett Favre, GB Steelers D/ST, David Akers, Carnell Williams, Brandon Stokley, Michael Jenkins, Tatum Bell, Den Jeff Reed, Pit Bubba Franks*, Marshall Faulk, StL Keary Colbert, CarHe drafted RB,WR,WR,RB,QB,QBIt not only looks like he will win the championship; We play a combined Week 16 & 17 for the Championship and he has built up a 58 Point lead. He will also win the Overall Points Championship for the year. His Starting Roster for last week looked like this:QB Tom Brady, NE QB PRB LaDainian Tomlinson, SDRB/WR Carnell Williams, TB WR Torry Holt, StL WR WR Amani Toomer, NYG TE Todd Heap, Bal TE D/ST Steelers D/ST, Pit D/STK Jay Feely, NYG KLuck plays a BIG role, but filling out a good starting line-up also factors in to it.

 
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Mr. Anonymous

Footballguy
1. RB#1

2. RB#2

3. TE#1 (if Gates)/QB#1 (if available)/WR#1

4. RB#3

5. QB#1/WR#1

6. WR#1/TE#1

7. WR#2/RB#4

8. DT#1/WR#2

9. QB#2/DT#1

10. DT#2/QB#2

11. RB#4/DT#2

12. WR#3

13. PK#1

14. PK#2

15. TE#2

16. WR#4
Personally, I don't like these picks b/c there is not much upside (or potential to find trade bait). You're better off waiting until your TE#1 and K#1 have their bye week and finding a replacement thru the WW. I'd rather select a RB#5 and WR#5 (or RB#5 and #6).
This is where rules come into play. We have to have balanced rosters (2QBs, 4RBs, 4WRs, 2TEs, 2PKs, 2DTs. Trust me, I would not waste a roster spot on a second PK if I didn't have to.
 

Nemesis

Footballguy
1. RB#1

2. RB#2

3. TE#1 (if Gates)/QB#1 (if available)/WR#1

4. RB#3

5. QB#1/WR#1

6. WR#1/TE#1

7. WR#2/RB#4

8. DT#1/WR#2

9. QB#2/DT#1

10. DT#2/QB#2

11. RB#4/DT#2

12. WR#3

13. PK#1

14. PK#2

15. TE#2

16. WR#4
Personally, I don't like these picks b/c there is not much upside (or potential to find trade bait). You're better off waiting until your TE#1 and K#1 have their bye week and finding a replacement thru the WW. I'd rather select a RB#5 and WR#5 (or RB#5 and #6).
This is where rules come into play. We have to have balanced rosters (2QBs, 4RBs, 4WRs, 2TEs, 2PKs, 2DTs. Trust me, I would not waste a roster spot on a second PK if I didn't have to.
I would never play in a league like that. That's like telling an NFL team you can't draft Reggie Bush......you already have 4 RB on your roster. :confused:
 

wannabee

Footballguy
1. RB#1

2. RB#2

3. TE#1 (if Gates)/QB#1 (if available)/WR#1

4. RB#3

5. QB#1/WR#1

6. WR#1/TE#1

7. WR#2/RB#4

8. DT#1/WR#2

9. QB#2/DT#1

10. DT#2/QB#2

11. RB#4/DT#2

12. WR#3

13. PK#1

14. PK#2

15. TE#2

16. WR#4
Personally, I don't like these picks b/c there is not much upside (or potential to find trade bait). You're better off waiting until your TE#1 and K#1 have their bye week and finding a replacement thru the WW. I'd rather select a RB#5 and WR#5 (or RB#5 and #6).
To piggyback this, depending on league size, the following are ways I try to maximize and leverage my lineup:QB:

In 10-12 team leagues - If I have a stud QB, especially with a late bye, I sometimes do no draft a back up. Even then, it might be my QB1's backs up - Palmer/Kitna. This allows me to have an additional roster spot for a developing RB.

RB:

Maximize as many RBs on your roster as possible who: a. have talent, b. draft in late rounds, c. have high risk/high reward, and d. only need one thing to happen to get opportunity (injury)

WR:

Many mid-to-late rounders perform as well as early (non-top 5 WRs). There is a point where you should stop drafting WRs for a few rounds. There is diminishing marginal returns.

TE:

Only carry one, pick up another with the extra roster spots

K:

See TE

D:

See TE

This is my methodology. In addition, depending on the strengths of your team, you might carry 1 qb, 8 rbs, 3 wrs, 1 te, 1k, & 1d if your team needs rb depth and you have solid wrs (utilizing a start 2 wr/1 flex lineup).

Finally, I would tell you to be flexible. If you try to lay out the exact draft (round with position), you probably will not do very well. Value comes to those who are flexible.

 

Nemesis

Footballguy
[To piggyback this, depending on league size, the following are ways I try to maximize and leverage my lineup:QB:In 10-12 team leagues - If I have a stud QB, especially with a late bye, I sometimes do no draft a back up.  Even then, it might be my QB1's backs up - Palmer/Kitna.  This allows me to have an additional roster spot for a developing RB.  RB:Maximize as many RBs on your roster as possible who: a. have talent, b. draft in late rounds, c. have high risk/high reward, and d. only need one thing to happen to get opportunity (injury)WR:Many mid-to-late rounders perform as well as early (non-top 5 WRs).  There is a point where you should stop drafting WRs for a few rounds.  There is diminishing marginal returns.TE:Only carry one, pick up another with the extra roster spotsK:See TED:See TE This is my methodology.  In addition, depending on the strengths of your team, you might carry 1 qb, 8 rbs, 3 wrs, 1 te, 1k, & 1d if your team needs rb depth and you have solid wrs (utilizing a start 2 wr/1 flex lineup).Finally, I would tell you to be flexible.  If you try to lay out the exact draft (round with position), you probably will not do very well.  Value comes to those who are flexible.
Wow!.......This is my EXACT philosophy every year..........especially about not drafting QB#2 (look if you own P.Manning..it's not like you're going to bench him and he hardly gets sacked/hurt, so you might as well strengthen your team elsewhere and then when Manning has his bye, select a good matchup from the avail FA qbs.) Obviously, if you select a QB late, then I select another QB in the draft to reduce my risk.BTW: I don't own Manning.
 
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Mr. Anonymous

Footballguy
1. RB#1

2. RB#2

3. TE#1 (if Gates)/QB#1 (if available)/WR#1

4. RB#3

5. QB#1/WR#1

6. WR#1/TE#1

7. WR#2/RB#4

8. DT#1/WR#2

9. QB#2/DT#1

10. DT#2/QB#2

11. RB#4/DT#2

12. WR#3

13. PK#1

14. PK#2

15. TE#2

16. WR#4
Personally, I don't like these picks b/c there is not much upside (or potential to find trade bait). You're better off waiting until your TE#1 and K#1 have their bye week and finding a replacement thru the WW. I'd rather select a RB#5 and WR#5 (or RB#5 and #6).
This is where rules come into play. We have to have balanced rosters (2QBs, 4RBs, 4WRs, 2TEs, 2PKs, 2DTs. Trust me, I would not waste a roster spot on a second PK if I didn't have to.
I would never play in a league like that. That's like telling an NFL team you can't draft Reggie Bush......you already have 4 RB on your roster. :confused:
And I would never play in a league that allowed such flexible rosters that teams could hoard RBs like that. To each his own. I could pick up Reggie Bush... I'd just have to cut somebody.

In any case, I'm in a 12 year old league of friends, and those are the rules, and everyone likes them, and I'm not going to go hunting for a league that has rules that I like better.

Given a set of rules, there are various strategies that can be employed. Our rules enhance the value of a top TE (since you have to start one, and 24 of them are soaked up by roster requirements), DTs (since we give points for scoring against and yards against, so DTs are not so variable, and 24 of them are soaked up), and enhance the value of waiver wire perusal (since there are a few potentially good RBs on the waiver wire... especially the first half of the season).

 
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Tick

Footballguy
I'm flexible, but tend to scout out my league as much as possible, use as much ADP info as I can, and script out the first five rounds or so.

First, I figure out whom to expect to see available at each spot. Here's an example of No Mercy leagues, draft slot #1:

my post

Next, I try to map out what I like from that list, using decision trees...

For No Mercy with the 1.04, I was going to take an RB.

At 2.09, I'd take a top RB if one fell, or Culpepper, or a top WR, in that order.

At 3.04, if I had two RBs, I'd take a top WR or McNabb, in that order. If I had one RB, I'd take a second RB.

At 4.09, I'd take FTaylor if he was there, else a WR up to a certain dropoff, else Barlow.

At 5.04, if I had 3 RBs I'd take a WR, else I'd take Barlow if available, else I'd take Gates if available, else I'd take a WR.

etc.

I had it mapped out through seven rounds depending on what my team makeup was at each point and the value picks I saw for each round. I try to do that for every draft when possible.

 

HULLOBUDMAN

Footballguy
It depends very, very heavily on your league's scoring rules, esp. for defenses, and especially for how many points you get for receptions and QB TDs.

I was just looking at this, while it was fresh on my mind, in terms of "what I ought" to do next year, avoiding mistakes I made this year. (I'm in my championship, but not necessarily because my draft worked - lots of injuries and failures - more because of waiver wire and trading activity.

The key element in my drafting - which I did follow this year - is to invest no more than one top six draft pick on a WR. They are easy to find on the waiver wire, and old ones can often be found in the middle rounds.

This is my "plan" for next year. It's not that much different from this year, except for pushing defense back (while the top DTs are VERY valuable in my league, it is hard to pick 'em - I picked the top three projected DT, the Bills, which was an utter waste of a fourth round pick.)

1. RB#1

2. RB#2

3. TE#1 (if Gates)/QB#1 (if available)/WR#1

4. RB#3

5. QB#1/WR#1

6. WR#1/TE#1

7. WR#2/RB#4

8. DT#1/WR#2

9. QB#2/DT#1

10. DT#2/QB#2

11. RB#4/DT#2

12. WR#3

13. PK#1

14. PK#2

15. TE#2

16. WR#4
The first sentence of this post is the most telling. Know your league. Everyone here keeps posting the theory about hoarding RBs in this thread. Our league's starting requirements were QB/RB/WR/WR/Flex/TE/K/D. This is a PPR league.3 of the 4 teams in the money started 1RB and 3WR all year. In this format it is my opinion that if you draft early, you should pass on picking your #2RB and handcuff him if he has a legit backup.

 

kutta

Footballguy
I also never grab a TE or QB in the first 5 rounds.

That is probably one of the biggest mistakes people can make.
Even if the guy is named Gates and is actually the 9th ranked WR?
 

jscout

Footballguy
I never map out what positions to take with what pick anymore. Like several others, I keep an open mind for the draft. I do run through several mock drafts based on the tendencies of the other owners, but as with anything, people change. At least I'm prepared. The most important thing is to know the league scoring rules cold and apply solid projections to that (FBG). Then rank all your players and take the best value as often as possible, making exceptions based on byes, SOS and what you've already drafted. For example, I took Palmer late, but what influenced my pick was already having Chad on my roster. I won my 4th in a row this year, so it works for me. In 2002, the first year I really decided to stick with picking the best value, I took 2 stud WRs (Moss and Harrison) with the first two picks drafting #6 out of 8. Then drafted RB, QB, RB, RB, RB (Deuce, Gannon, Tiki, Garner, Dunn). Walked away with the best team in the draft and ran away with the championship that year. Prior to that I kept insisting I'd take RB, RB in the first two rounds, with the next few rounds being some combination of QB, RB, and WR (we lump TEs with WRs). That only got me one championship in 4 years. I'm sold.

 

Tick

Footballguy
In 2002, the first year I really decided to stick with picking the best value, I took 2 stud WRs (Moss and Harrison) with the first two picks drafting #6 out of 8. Then drafted RB, QB, RB, RB, RB (Deuce, Gannon, Tiki, Garner, Dunn). Walked away with the best team in the draft and ran away with the championship that year. Prior to that I kept insisting I'd take RB, RB in the first two rounds, with the next few rounds being some combination of QB, RB, and WR (we lump TEs with WRs). That only got me one championship in 4 years. I'm sold.
A warning here... 8-team leagues have far different demand at RB. As jscout said, know your league. While this works for an 8-man league, it doesn't necessarily map over to a 12-team league.
 

wannabee

Footballguy
I think the best way, as pointed out earlier, to get a feel for who will be available is to do a ton of mock drafts. The draft dominator is great for this using ADP. Sometimes you have to alter a few variables depending on league variables, but it is a good representation of what should be available to you.

 

LHUCKS

Footballguy
The real answer is "it depends."FF is more of an art than an exact science. There is no secret draft strategy.

 

bagger.

The One Play Quiz
I also never grab a TE or QB in the first 5 rounds.

That is probably one of the biggest mistakes people can make.
Even if the guy is named Gates and is actually the 9th ranked WR?
Yes. Your incremental team value is greater by waiting on the TE position than grabbing one early that may not even hit.How did Gonzo do this year?

 

HULLOBUDMAN

Footballguy
I also never grab a TE or QB in the first 5 rounds.

That is probably one of the biggest mistakes people can make.
Even if the guy is named Gates and is actually the 9th ranked WR?
Yes. Your incremental team value is greater by waiting on the TE position than grabbing one early that may not even hit.How did Gonzo do this year?
How did Moss do this year? How did Joe Horn do this year? I would have rather had Gonzo in the late 3rd early 4th than either at thier draft position.Please explain to me why having one of the 3 "can't miss" TEs will make your team incrementally worse. If you were able to pick up Gonzo as the TE1 or TE2 in the late 3rd he has preformed at the WR2 level in a 12 team league. IF you had taken Gates he has preformed at the WR1 level, also being picked in the late 3rd.

Gates has outpreformed the following WRs taken within 5 spots of his ADP:

Joe Horn, Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Hines Ward, Nate Burleson, and Michael Clayton.

Gonzo has outpreformed Andre Johnson, Burleson, Clayton, and Horn.

Because of the fact that you almost always find a diamond in the rough @ WR later, it makes more sense to me to wait on WR if you can get a "known" talent like Gonzo or Gates.

Thanks for the input.

http://www.rivworks.net/football/average_adp.htm

Edited to add late season ADP link.

 
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kingmalaki

Footballguy
It depends on the scoring system. This was our first year in a PPR league (well, RB's didn't get the extra pick) and my 2nd and 3rd picks were WR's....saved my season. A lot of the WR's did better than some RB's picked in the first round.

 

bagger.

The One Play Quiz
I also never grab a TE or QB in the first 5 rounds.

That is probably one of the biggest mistakes people can make.
Even if the guy is named Gates and is actually the 9th ranked WR?
Yes. Your incremental team value is greater by waiting on the TE position than grabbing one early that may not even hit.How did Gonzo do this year?
How did Moss do this year? How did Joe Horn do this year? I would have rather had Gonzo in the late 3rd early 4th than either at thier draft position.Please explain to me why having one of the 3 "can't miss" TEs will make your team incrementally worse. If you were able to pick up Gonzo as the TE1 or TE2 in the late 3rd he has preformed at the WR2 level in a 12 team league. IF you had taken Gates he has preformed at the WR1 level, also being picked in the late 3rd.

Gates has outpreformed the following WRs taken within 5 spots of his ADP:

Joe Horn, Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Hines Ward, Nate Burleson, and Michael Clayton.

Gonzo has outpreformed Andre Johnson, Burleson, Clayton, and Horn.

Because of the fact that you almost always find a diamond in the rough @ WR later, it makes more sense to me to wait on WR if you can get a "known" talent like Gonzo or Gates.

Thanks for the input.

http://www.rivworks.net/football/average_adp.htm

Edited to add late season ADP link.
There is more scarcity with WRs than there are with TEs in the first 8-9 rounds of a draft.Due to injuries and bye weeks, especially in start 3 WR leagues, you will be using your 4th, 5th, and even 6th drafted WR much more so than you ever will think. That cannot be said of the TE position. You can draft a top 5 TE every year in the 8th-10th round, and find a decent enough backup late in the draft or off waivers, especially if you know how to value TEs and predict their production.

This is the classic mistake of using VBD comparing two players in one round of the draft and not taking into account the trickle down effects of what incremental value you lose in every subsequent round.

The biggest myth in fantasy football is that you can always get good WRs late. That is actually the exception not the rule, and the predictability of getting that WR is so difficult that it typically only happens when you bang that position repeatedly in the early/mid rounds getting 5 or 6 WRs by the 10th round.

Trust me, I am not trying to convince you otherwise. I am very happy with people drafting TEs that high. The extra 5 PPG you get out of the TE position I more than make up with over the course of the year with depth at the WR position.

 

kutta

Footballguy
I also never grab a TE or QB in the first 5 rounds.

That is probably one of the biggest mistakes people can make.
Even if the guy is named Gates and is actually the 9th ranked WR?
Yes. Your incremental team value is greater by waiting on the TE position than grabbing one early that may not even hit.How did Gonzo do this year?
How did Moss do this year? How did Joe Horn do this year? I would have rather had Gonzo in the late 3rd early 4th than either at thier draft position.Please explain to me why having one of the 3 "can't miss" TEs will make your team incrementally worse. If you were able to pick up Gonzo as the TE1 or TE2 in the late 3rd he has preformed at the WR2 level in a 12 team league. IF you had taken Gates he has preformed at the WR1 level, also being picked in the late 3rd.

Gates has outpreformed the following WRs taken within 5 spots of his ADP:

Joe Horn, Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Hines Ward, Nate Burleson, and Michael Clayton.

Gonzo has outpreformed Andre Johnson, Burleson, Clayton, and Horn.

Because of the fact that you almost always find a diamond in the rough @ WR later, it makes more sense to me to wait on WR if you can get a "known" talent like Gonzo or Gates.

Thanks for the input.

http://www.rivworks.net/football/average_adp.htm

Edited to add late season ADP link.
There is more scarcity with WRs than there are with TEs in the first 8-9 rounds of a draft.Due to injuries and bye weeks, especially in start 3 WR leagues, you will be using your 4th, 5th, and even 6th drafted WR much more so than you ever will think. That cannot be said of the TE position. You can draft a top 5 TE every year in the 8th-10th round, and find a decent enough backup late in the draft or off waivers, especially if you know how to value TEs and predict their production.

This is the classic mistake of using VBD comparing two players in one round of the draft and not taking into account the trickle down effects of what incremental value you lose in every subsequent round.

The biggest myth in fantasy football is that you can always get good WRs late. That is actually the exception not the rule, and the predictability of getting that WR is so difficult that it typically only happens when you bang that position repeatedly in the early/mid rounds getting 5 or 6 WRs by the 10th round.

Trust me, I am not trying to convince you otherwise. I am very happy with people drafting TEs that high. The extra 5 PPG you get out of the TE position I more than make up with over the course of the year with depth at the WR position.
I used to be totally in your camp on this. But this year I took Gates in the late third everywhere I could and all of those teams were very good, and I won the championship in my main league for the first time.I disagree that you can draft a top 5 TE every year in the 8-10th round. Gates, Gonzo, Shockey, Heap, and Witten will go before then in every draft. Sure you might get lucky and grab a Cooley, but there will be 7 other teams also trying to find that daimond out there in the 10th round, so there is a much better chance you end up with a Pollard or Ben Watson.

This year, Gates was about 7 PPG better than the 12th TE. That is HUGE. The difference between the:

#1 QB and the #12 QB is about 5 PPG

#1 WR to the #12 Wr is about 3 PPG - to the #24 WR is about 6 PPG

#1 Kicker to the #12 Kicker is about 4 PPG

#1 D to the #12 D is about 2 PPG

#1 RB to the #12 RB is about 11 PPG - to the #24 RB is about 14 PPG,

So you are going to have a quite a difficult time making up the points difference you would gain by drafting Gates.

The big thing here also is that you KNOW who the top TE is going to be with a great deal of certainty, while picking the tops at the other positions (except RB) is pretty tough.

 

Mathematics

Footballguy
I also never grab a TE or QB in the first 5 rounds.

That is probably one of the biggest mistakes people can make.
Even if the guy is named Gates and is actually the 9th ranked WR?
Yes. Your incremental team value is greater by waiting on the TE position than grabbing one early that may not even hit.How did Gonzo do this year?
How did Moss do this year? How did Joe Horn do this year? I would have rather had Gonzo in the late 3rd early 4th than either at thier draft position.Please explain to me why having one of the 3 "can't miss" TEs will make your team incrementally worse. If you were able to pick up Gonzo as the TE1 or TE2 in the late 3rd he has preformed at the WR2 level in a 12 team league. IF you had taken Gates he has preformed at the WR1 level, also being picked in the late 3rd.

Gates has outpreformed the following WRs taken within 5 spots of his ADP:

Joe Horn, Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Hines Ward, Nate Burleson, and Michael Clayton.

Gonzo has outpreformed Andre Johnson, Burleson, Clayton, and Horn.

Because of the fact that you almost always find a diamond in the rough @ WR later, it makes more sense to me to wait on WR if you can get a "known" talent like Gonzo or Gates.

Thanks for the input.

http://www.rivworks.net/football/average_adp.htm

Edited to add late season ADP link.
There is more scarcity with WRs than there are with TEs in the first 8-9 rounds of a draft.Due to injuries and bye weeks, especially in start 3 WR leagues, you will be using your 4th, 5th, and even 6th drafted WR much more so than you ever will think. That cannot be said of the TE position. You can draft a top 5 TE every year in the 8th-10th round, and find a decent enough backup late in the draft or off waivers, especially if you know how to value TEs and predict their production.

This is the classic mistake of using VBD comparing two players in one round of the draft and not taking into account the trickle down effects of what incremental value you lose in every subsequent round.

The biggest myth in fantasy football is that you can always get good WRs late. That is actually the exception not the rule, and the predictability of getting that WR is so difficult that it typically only happens when you bang that position repeatedly in the early/mid rounds getting 5 or 6 WRs by the 10th round.

Trust me, I am not trying to convince you otherwise. I am very happy with people drafting TEs that high. The extra 5 PPG you get out of the TE position I more than make up with over the course of the year with depth at the WR position.
I used to be totally in your camp on this. But this year I took Gates in the late third everywhere I could and all of those teams were very good, and I won the championship in my main league for the first time.I disagree that you can draft a top 5 TE every year in the 8-10th round. Gates, Gonzo, Shockey, Heap, and Witten will go before then in every draft. Sure you might get lucky and grab a Cooley, but there will be 7 other teams also trying to find that daimond out there in the 10th round, so there is a much better chance you end up with a Pollard or Ben Watson.

This year, Gates was about 7 PPG better than the 12th TE. That is HUGE. The difference between the:

#1 QB and the #12 QB is about 5 PPG

#1 WR to the #12 Wr is about 3 PPG - to the #24 WR is about 6 PPG

#1 Kicker to the #12 Kicker is about 4 PPG

#1 D to the #12 D is about 2 PPG

#1 RB to the #12 RB is about 11 PPG - to the #24 RB is about 14 PPG,

So you are going to have a quite a difficult time making up the points difference you would gain by drafting Gates.

The big thing here also is that you KNOW who the top TE is going to be with a great deal of certainty, while picking the tops at the other positions (except RB) is pretty tough.
I think if you can get Gates in the third round, then you take him. He's the best and will be the top TE every year barring injury. But I'd wait on every other tight end. The difference between Gates and everyone else is big, but not much of a difference between Heap, Witten, Gonzo, Cooley, etc. I drafted Cooley this year in the 16th round of a draft. I drafted Witten last year in the 15 round. You can get a top 5 TE later if you wait. So, you either take Gates or wait til later.
 

Mr. Anonymous

Footballguy
No one in their right mind (in a TE-starter required league) would let Gates fall to the third round. So that strategy is a Gates-less strategy.I would love for this to happen in my league, but wouldn't even test it to see if Gates was available to me in the 2nd round. Gates scores like a #10 RB or so. That is huge.

 

bagger.

The One Play Quiz
I used to be totally in your camp on this. But this year I took Gates in the late third everywhere I could and all of those teams were very good, and I won the championship in my main league for the first time.

I disagree that you can draft a top 5 TE every year in the 8-10th round. Gates, Gonzo, Shockey, Heap, and Witten will go before then in every draft. Sure you might get lucky and grab a Cooley, but there will be 7 other teams also trying to find that daimond out there in the 10th round, so there is a much better chance you end up with a Pollard or Ben Watson.

This year, Gates was about 7 PPG better than the 12th TE. That is HUGE. The difference between the:

#1 QB and the #12 QB is about 5 PPG

#1 WR to the #12 Wr is about 3 PPG - to the #24 WR is about 6 PPG

#1 Kicker to the #12 Kicker is about 4 PPG

#1 D to the #12 D is about 2 PPG

#1 RB to the #12 RB is about 11 PPG - to the #24 RB is about 14 PPG,

So you are going to have a quite a difficult time making up the points difference you would gain by drafting Gates.

The big thing here also is that you KNOW who the top TE is going to be with a great deal of certainty, while picking the tops at the other positions (except RB) is pretty tough.
First, regardless of draft strategy, if you draft good players you are going to have a good team. That is always going to be more important that what drafting nuances you have.Unfortunately since we did not know how much better the #1 TE would be than the rest of the field, and we did not know that #1 TE would be Gates (especially with him missing the first game of the season) this is where good draft strategy comes into play.

I agree that 7 PPG is huge. However, by drafting according to my strategy you are not drafting the 12th TE. While you may think it is difficult finding that TE in the rough, wilked and I have done some research that makes grabbing productive late round TEs much easier than most think. I have to disagree with your certainty of who the top TE is. Many people thought Gonzo was, or was at least close to the top TE. Furthermore, by platooning two later round TEs you also erode that PPG difference that you state. It is utilizing these combinations, much like a defensive duo that make late round picks for positions other than RB and WR more valuable than most people realize.

The problem with your static VBD comparison of positions is that you are looking at one player versus one player. This is the fundamental flaw of VBD. You are not taking into consideration PPG lost due to your top 3 WRs having bye weeks (meaning that WR4 will play in over 21% of your regular season games at a minimum). If any of your top 3 WRs sustain injuries (or do not produce) your WR4 will be playing probably in the 30%-40% range of your games. Likewise your WR5 could be playing in as many as 20% of your games if you have WRs with similar bye weeks or multiple injuries occur at once.

Grabbing WRs (along with 3 RBs) in the first 8 rounds is imperative to team PPG and I will guarantee that by having better WRs (notice plural WRs, not just one WR) you will make up the PPG on average from drafting a TE early, especially if you target TEs in the 9th and 10th rounds according to some criteria that I apply.

You can obviously create situations where I draft Moss, Walker, and Horn and you draft Gates and two other WRs and your team production greatly exceeds mine.

However, I could do the same if the WRs I drafted hit and the ones you did late didn't. Specific examples with 20/20 hindsight really does us no good in this discussion because you do not have the benefit of knowing how all the players will do in the upcoming season.

As such you need to have a draft strategy that maximizes the probability that the players you draft will give you a better team PPG. VBD does not do this. VBD only works when you know what each player will do, which is the last thing you know at a draft. While good projections may get you in the ballpark, drafting the best team and getting value from ADP serves you better.

 

bagger.

The One Play Quiz
No one in their right mind (in a TE-starter required league) would let Gates fall to the third round. So that strategy is a Gates-less strategy.

I would love for this to happen in my league, but wouldn't even test it to see if Gates was available to me in the 2nd round. Gates scores like a #10 RB or so. That is huge.
:confused: :no:

 

stevec

Footballguy
While this is the year that Gonzo fell down, we can look at TE scoring projections and be pretty sure about getting a top-3 TE with that early pick.Let's go over who were the projected top TE's the last 5 years (this is mostly off memory):2005: Gonzo/Gates - saw lots of folks on both sides on this one.2004: Gonzo, then Heap2003: Gonzo, then Heap2002: Gonzo, then Sharpe2001: Gonzo, then SharpeHow did those choices work out?Gates top 1 in 2005. Gonzo either 1 or 2 all but 2005 - probably top 6 this year. Sharpe was top 3 one season, and got hurt for a few games the other, but was still very good PPG. Heap in '03 top 2, '04 injury bust.So that's 1 big bust - injury, 2 average starters, and 7 top talents out of 10 picks. I'll take a 70% hit rate for a stud on a 3rd round pick when downside excluding injury is average starter.This year, only Chris Cooley came out of nowhere as a TE. Therefore all those late round "diamond in the rough" guys got a cubic zirconia instead.

 

HULLOBUDMAN

Footballguy
I used to be totally in your camp on this. But this year I took Gates in the late third everywhere I could and all of those teams were very good, and I won the championship in my main league for the first time.

I disagree that you can draft a top 5 TE every year in the 8-10th round. Gates, Gonzo, Shockey, Heap, and Witten will go before then in every draft. Sure you might get lucky and grab a Cooley, but there will be 7 other teams also trying to find that daimond out there in the 10th round, so there is a much better chance you end up with a Pollard or Ben Watson.

This year, Gates was about 7 PPG better than the 12th TE. That is HUGE. The difference between the:

#1 QB and the #12 QB is about 5 PPG

#1 WR to the #12 Wr is about 3 PPG - to the #24 WR is about 6 PPG

#1 Kicker to the #12 Kicker is about 4 PPG

#1 D to the #12 D is about 2 PPG

#1 RB to the #12 RB is about 11 PPG - to the #24 RB is about 14 PPG, 

So you are going to have a quite a difficult time making up the points difference you would gain by drafting Gates.

The big thing here also is that you KNOW who the top TE is going to be with a great deal of certainty, while picking the tops at the other positions (except RB) is pretty tough.
First, regardless of draft strategy, if you draft good players you are going to have a good team. That is always going to be more important that what drafting nuances you have.Unfortunately since we did not know how much better the #1 TE would be than the rest of the field, and we did not know that #1 TE would be Gates (especially with him missing the first game of the season) this is where good draft strategy comes into play.

I agree that 7 PPG is huge. However, by drafting according to my strategy you are not drafting the 12th TE. While you may think it is difficult finding that TE in the rough, wilked and I have done some research that makes grabbing productive late round TEs much easier than most think. I have to disagree with your certainty of who the top TE is. Many people thought Gonzo was, or was at least close to the top TE. Furthermore, by platooning two later round TEs you also erode that PPG difference that you state. It is utilizing these combinations, much like a defensive duo that make late round picks for positions other than RB and WR more valuable than most people realize.

The problem with your static VBD comparison of positions is that you are looking at one player versus one player. This is the fundamental flaw of VBD. You are not taking into consideration PPG lost due to your top 3 WRs having bye weeks (meaning that WR4 will play in over 21% of your regular season games at a minimum). If any of your top 3 WRs sustain injuries (or do not produce) your WR4 will be playing probably in the 30%-40% range of your games. Likewise your WR5 could be playing in as many as 20% of your games if you have WRs with similar bye weeks or multiple injuries occur at once.

Grabbing WRs (along with 3 RBs) in the first 8 rounds is imperative to team PPG and I will guarantee that by having better WRs (notice plural WRs, not just one WR) you will make up the PPG on average from drafting a TE early, especially if you target TEs in the 9th and 10th rounds according to some criteria that I apply.

You can obviously create situations where I draft Moss, Walker, and Horn and you draft Gates and two other WRs and your team production greatly exceeds mine.

However, I could do the same if the WRs I drafted hit and the ones you did late didn't. Specific examples with 20/20 hindsight really does us no good in this discussion because you do not have the benefit of knowing how all the players will do in the upcoming season.

As such you need to have a draft strategy that maximizes the probability that the players you draft will give you a better team PPG. VBD does not do this. VBD only works when you know what each player will do, which is the last thing you know at a draft. While good projections may get you in the ballpark, drafting the best team and getting value from ADP serves you better.
As I mentioned in my original post, you need to know your league rules. In a start 3 WR format your strategy MAY work better. I guess my experiences have led me to disagee with your strategy. While many people on this board agree with waiting on TE and QB until late and then platooning, this strategy never seems to pan out for me. Platooning two TEs or QBs has always blown up in my face because I never seem to hit on those late round guys. I had no problem using a third on Gonzo, 5th on Shockey and 6th on Witten this year.Let's throw Gates out of the equation. Assume a PPR league.

In a 12 team league the dropoff from the #2 TE to the #13 Te is 83 points-5.18ppg

From Gonzo to the # 13 is 57 points 3.56 ppg

In a 16 team league the dropoff from the #2 TE to the #17 TE is 95 points-5.93ppg

From Gonzo to the # 17 TE is 69 points -5.75 ppg

By you theory, if I understand you correctly, is that I should draft the next best WR by ADP instead of Gonzo or Gates. In this years draft that would have put you in the Ward/Jackson/Burleson/Clayton/S. Smith area instead of Chambers/Bruce/J Smith/MAson/Muhammed.

Under the best of conditions, where you would choose the best player available would pit you taking:

Smith instead of Chambers The dropoff would have been 56 points - 3.5ppg

Worst conditions not including injuries would be Clayton vs. Muhammed...Muhammed outpreformed Clayton.

Excuse me if I am using "selective stats" I am truly not trying to do this, my feeble mind can not figure out how else to make these comparisons. I realize that you "could have" ended up with Cooley or Wiggins or Kinney this year. But you also "could have" ended up with a WR that outpreformed his draft position also.

Thanks.

 

Wilbur Wood

Footballguy
What strategy does everyone usually go with in their draft? I realize it also depends on who's left on the board but I think the first four or five rounds makes or breaks your team's success. The other 10 rounds or so are also important but not as structural as the first handful. I usually go with RB, RB, WR, QB or RB, RB, WR, WR, QB. Then anthing after that I go with the best player available in locations where I still need players.

Typical scoring with typical starting roster(QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, K, Def)
I think FF players that spend as much time and energy analyzing serpintine draft strategies, which IMO ain't that difficult or multi-faceted, should consider playing in Auction leagues. Much better format in which to utilize various strategies.
 

Tick

Footballguy
So much comes down to the value you assign to backups. I've been trying to figure out what kind of modifier to use for backups for a long time now and don't think I've quite figured it out yet. I'd love to be able to alter those modifiers in the Draft Dominator and see how things look with different numbers.In this example, bagger's giving the primary backup WR a higher modifier than the people on the TE side - say 0.7 instead of 0.5 to pick some numbers.I'd love to see someone figure out a good way to pick those values. I think a lot of the work has been done, I've just never seen it presented in the form of value modifiers for backups at various positions.

 

bagger.

The One Play Quiz
So that's 1 big bust - injury, 2 average starters, and 7 top talents out of 10 picks. I'll take a 70% hit rate for a stud on a 3rd round pick when downside excluding injury is average starter.
OK, but that is not maximizing team points.
This year, only Chris Cooley came out of nowhere as a TE. Therefore all those late round "diamond in the rough" guys got a cubic zirconia instead.
This is not true. LJ Smith was a top 5 TE until he got hurt and is still top 10. Jerramy Stevens, McMichael, and Heath Miller, are also in the top 12 and could all have been had in the 9th round or later.Now when you consider the option to go TE back to back in these rounds you now have a late round duo that can match up with, or at least outproduce the combination of Gates and lesser WRs with the WRs you were able to get early in the draft.

 

bagger.

The One Play Quiz
As I mentioned in my original post, you need to know your league rules. In a start 3 WR format your strategy MAY work better. I guess my experiences have led me to disagee with your strategy. While many people on this board agree with waiting on TE and QB until late and then platooning, this strategy never seems to pan out for me. Platooning two TEs or QBs has always blown up in my face because I never seem to hit on those late round guys. I had no problem using a third on Gonzo, 5th on Shockey and 6th on Witten this year.

Let's throw Gates out of the equation. Assume a PPR league.

In a 12 team league the dropoff from the #2 TE to the #13 Te is 83 points-5.18ppg

From Gonzo to the # 13 is 57 points 3.56 ppg

In a 16 team league the dropoff from the #2 TE to the #17 TE is 95 points-5.93ppg

From Gonzo to the # 17 TE is 69 points -5.75 ppg

By you theory, if I understand you correctly, is that I should draft the next best WR by ADP instead of Gonzo or Gates. In this years draft that would have put you in the Ward/Jackson/Burleson/Clayton/S. Smith area instead of Chambers/Bruce/J Smith/MAson/Muhammed.

Under the best of conditions, where you would choose the best player available would pit you taking:

Smith instead of Chambers The dropoff would have been 56 points - 3.5ppg

Worst conditions not including injuries would be Clayton vs. Muhammed...Muhammed outpreformed Clayton.

Excuse me if I am using "selective stats" I am truly not trying to do this, my feeble mind can not figure out how else to make these comparisons. I realize that you "could have" ended up with Cooley or Wiggins or Kinney this year. But you also "could have" ended up with a WR that outpreformed his draft position also.

Thanks.
Don't misunderstand. I am not advocating platooning TEs. I am advocating grabbing a TE with value who you can start every week like a LJ Smith, Chris Cooley, or Randy McMichael.Also, I am not advocating drafting purely by ADP. You need to use ADP to understand what runs will occur in the draft and who will be available at each position as the draft progresses.

You are going to need 5 WRs and 3 RBs by the 8th round. How and when you take those players depends on the draft and your specific draft slot. But these 8 players will be the core of your team.

All I am saying is to look past VBD. While it is a great underlying concept that should be implictly used throughout the draft, looking at point dropoffs in each round comparing positions runs you down the wrong path as it does not take into account how many times backups will be used.

Even if you do a great job diversifying bye weeks, backing up WRs with a solid 4th or 5th WR is a great way to pick up hidden points that people who utilize VBD miss.

 

bagger.

The One Play Quiz
So much comes down to the value you assign to backups. I've been trying to figure out what kind of modifier to use for backups for a long time now and don't think I've quite figured it out yet. I'd love to be able to alter those modifiers in the Draft Dominator and see how things look with different numbers.

In this example, bagger's giving the primary backup WR a higher modifier than the people on the TE side - say 0.7 instead of 0.5 to pick some numbers.

I'd love to see someone figure out a good way to pick those values. I think a lot of the work has been done, I've just never seen it presented in the form of value modifiers for backups at various positions.
Honestly, I think you cannot apply a quantitative methodology here. Unfortunately, there will never be an application that makes the decisions for you. Once you get to the mid rounds you have to use "gut" and other draft strategy (especially near the turns) to maximize value for your team. However, if you do try to use a quantitative method, I agree that the more players you start at each position, the higher that modifier needs to be. You need to look at the bye weeks of who you have already drafted, analyze who your opponents have drafted and who you think they will draft, use ADP to predict runs and where you stand to be if a run happens after you pick.

 

stevec

Footballguy
This is not true. LJ Smith was a top 5 TE until he got hurt and is still top 10. Jerramy Stevens, McMichael, and Heath Miller, are also in the top 12 and could all have been had in the 9th round or later.

Now when you consider the option to go TE back to back in these rounds you now have a late round duo that can match up with, or at least outproduce the combination of Gates and lesser WRs with the WRs you were able to get early in the draft.
bagger, It depends on who you're drafting against. If the guy who takes the stud or near stud TE is also good at drafting the lesser-name WR, you've got issues. For example: Gonzo/Holt/SMoss and one of JSmith/Engram was plenty this year.

A top 10-12 TE late is nice, but it's really not that useful, since you're below average starter, which means you're losing points on the pack. I agree that if you can't get a stud TE, you want a late round duo. although that uses up a roster space that can be better used on a player with more trade value.

Sorry, LJ is cubic zirconia when looking at the whole season. if you're not average starter or within a few points, you're not a diamond. There's nothing wrong with a CZ, heck they have their advantages - specifically they are cheaper, which is the later rounds. LJ/Stevens probably has worked due to the timing of their respective production, but I'd need to look. (I actually snagged Stevens really late as a bye week TE and as trade bait down the stretch.)

I also don't look at the draft as trying to maximize team points. I'm trying to maximize my chance of starting strong & making the playoffs - which is be good in points, but not necessarily taking more risk at creating lineup holes to max it out. I'll tweak using trades & waivers to keep gaining on the league, although this year, I nailed my one redraft league at the draft.

 
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HULLOBUDMAN

Footballguy
As I mentioned in my original post, you need to know your league rules. In a start 3 WR format your strategy MAY work better. I guess my experiences have led me to disagee with your strategy. While many people on this board agree with waiting on TE and QB until late and then platooning, this strategy never seems to pan out for me. Platooning two TEs or QBs has always blown up in my face because I never seem to hit on those late round guys. I had no problem using a third on Gonzo, 5th on Shockey and 6th on Witten this year.

Let's throw Gates out of the equation. Assume a PPR league.

In a 12 team league the dropoff from the #2 TE to the #13 Te is 83 points-5.18ppg

                                              From Gonzo to the # 13 is 57 points 3.56 ppg

In a 16 team league the dropoff from the #2 TE to the #17 TE is 95 points-5.93ppg

                                              From Gonzo to the # 17 TE is 69 points -5.75 ppg

By you theory, if I understand you correctly, is that I should draft the next best WR by ADP instead of Gonzo or Gates. In this years draft that would have put you in the Ward/Jackson/Burleson/Clayton/S. Smith area instead of Chambers/Bruce/J Smith/MAson/Muhammed.

Under the best of conditions, where you would choose the best player available would pit you taking:

Smith instead of Chambers The dropoff would have been 56 points - 3.5ppg

Worst conditions not including injuries would be Clayton vs. Muhammed...Muhammed outpreformed Clayton.

Excuse me if I am using "selective stats" I am truly not trying to do this, my feeble mind can not figure out how else to make these comparisons. I realize that you "could have" ended up with Cooley or Wiggins or Kinney this year. But you also "could have" ended up with a WR that outpreformed his draft position also.

Thanks.
Don't misunderstand. I am not advocating platooning TEs. I am advocating grabbing a TE with value who you can start every week like a LJ Smith, Chris Cooley, or Randy McMichael.Also, I am not advocating drafting purely by ADP. You need to use ADP to understand what runs will occur in the draft and who will be available at each position as the draft progresses.

You are going to need 5 WRs and 3 RBs by the 8th round. How and when you take those players depends on the draft and your specific draft slot. But these 8 players will be the core of your team.

All I am saying is to look past VBD. While it is a great underlying concept that should be implictly used throughout the draft, looking at point dropoffs in each round comparing positions runs you down the wrong path as it does not take into account how many times backups will be used.

Even if you do a great job diversifying bye weeks, backing up WRs with a solid 4th or 5th WR is a great way to pick up hidden points that people who utilize VBD miss.
Sorry if I was not clear. I was not implying to draft by ADP either. My point was that those were the next available players by ADP at the end of the 3rd instead of Gates/Gonzo. I was using those players in comparrision of who would have been there to choose from, not that you shoudl take that particular player.
 

Tick

Footballguy
So much comes down to the value you assign to backups.  I've been trying to figure out what kind of modifier to use for backups for a long time now and don't think I've quite figured it out yet.  I'd love to be able to alter those modifiers in the Draft Dominator and see how things look with different numbers.

In this example, bagger's giving the primary backup WR a higher modifier than the people on the TE side - say 0.7 instead of 0.5 to pick some numbers.

I'd love to see someone figure out a good way to pick those values.  I think a lot of the work has been done, I've just never seen it presented in the form of value modifiers for backups at various positions.
Honestly, I think you cannot apply a quantitative methodology here. Unfortunately, there will never be an application that makes the decisions for you. Once you get to the mid rounds you have to use "gut" and other draft strategy (especially near the turns) to maximize value for your team. However, if you do try to use a quantitative method, I agree that the more players you start at each position, the higher that modifier needs to be. You need to look at the bye weeks of who you have already drafted, analyze who your opponents have drafted and who you think they will draft, use ADP to predict runs and where you stand to be if a run happens after you pick.
In a fast draft, it can just be a bit overwhelming - you're doing all of what you just said, and you're doing it for each position, while tracking the picks. I'd like to be able to eyeball things and say, "I've got Manning at QB, he's never hurt, I'll drop my backup QB factor by .1. I've got Dominic Davis and Chris Brown for my starting RBs, I need to bump up my backup RB factor by .2." - quantifying it allows you to make faster decisions if you can plug that number into an app and get a new list. You still have to use your brain and not pick whatever pops up mindlessly, but IMO it would be a good way to organize your thoughts quickly.
 

stevec

Footballguy
While I agree with the theory that you need your core guys by round 8 or so, they don't necessarily need to 3 RB & 5 WR; you can always deal a spare starting RB for a good WR 4, or take a good TE and go 3/4/1 or 4/3/1. Sometimes you can get value in rounds 9 & 10 at WR for spot starts.

 

Tick

Footballguy
You are going to need 5 WRs and 3 RBs by the 8th round. How and when you take those players depends on the draft and your specific draft slot. But these 8 players will be the core of your team.
I think that's a bit extreme. I agree with the 3 RBs, but think you can get by with 3 or 4 WRs by then. You need to be open to capitalizing on players who fall - if a starting RB falls to the sixth round, take him even if you've already got three. If Shockey's there in the 7th, you'd be nuts to pass him up. I know those sound like crazy examples, but they happen.
 

stevec

Footballguy
In a fast draft, it can just be a bit overwhelming - you're doing all of what you just said, and you're doing it for each position, while tracking the picks.  I'd like to be able to eyeball things and say, "I've got Manning at QB, he's never hurt, I'll drop my backup QB factor by .1.  I've got Dominic Davis and Chris Brown for my starting RBs, I need to bump up my backup RB factor by .2." - quantifying it allows you to make faster decisions if you can plug that number into an app and get a new list.  You still have to use your brain and not pick whatever pops up mindlessly, but IMO it would be a good way to organize your thoughts quickly.
I'm not sure how fast you'd be able to change the settings, unless you set up factor reducers dependent on whom you took at say QB to automatically populate & refresh the spreadsheet.My philosophy is that I wouldn't want 2 risky RB's as RB 1 & 2. Once you get one relatively lower risk guy, then you can take more risks elsewhere.

Actually my philosophy based on this year should be:

- travel out of coutry for a week to relax, unabel to watch games.

- try and find updated injury info on return - 1 day before draft.

- draft next day at noon.

If it works again, I'll be :excited:

 
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Islander

Footballguy
I used to be totally in your camp on this. But this year I took Gates in the late third everywhere I could and all of those teams were very good, and I won the championship in my main league for the first time.

I disagree that you can draft a top 5 TE every year in the 8-10th round. Gates, Gonzo, Shockey, Heap, and Witten will go before then in every draft. Sure you might get lucky and grab a Cooley, but there will be 7 other teams also trying to find that daimond out there in the 10th round, so there is a much better chance you end up with a Pollard or Ben Watson.

This year, Gates was about 7 PPG better than the 12th TE. That is HUGE. The difference between the:

#1 QB and the #12 QB is about 5 PPG

#1 WR to the #12 Wr is about 3 PPG - to the #24 WR is about 6 PPG

#1 Kicker to the #12 Kicker is about 4 PPG

#1 D to the #12 D is about 2 PPG

#1 RB to the #12 RB is about 11 PPG - to the #24 RB is about 14 PPG, 

So you are going to have a quite a difficult time making up the points difference you would gain by drafting Gates.

The big thing here also is that you KNOW who the top TE is going to be with a great deal of certainty, while picking the tops at the other positions (except RB) is pretty tough.
First, regardless of draft strategy, if you draft good players you are going to have a good team. That is always going to be more important that what drafting nuances you have.Unfortunately since we did not know how much better the #1 TE would be than the rest of the field, and we did not know that #1 TE would be Gates (especially with him missing the first game of the season) this is where good draft strategy comes into play.

I agree that 7 PPG is huge. However, by drafting according to my strategy you are not drafting the 12th TE. While you may think it is difficult finding that TE in the rough, wilked and I have done some research that makes grabbing productive late round TEs much easier than most think. I have to disagree with your certainty of who the top TE is. Many people thought Gonzo was, or was at least close to the top TE. Furthermore, by platooning two later round TEs you also erode that PPG difference that you state. It is utilizing these combinations, much like a defensive duo that make late round picks for positions other than RB and WR more valuable than most people realize.

The problem with your static VBD comparison of positions is that you are looking at one player versus one player. This is the fundamental flaw of VBD. You are not taking into consideration PPG lost due to your top 3 WRs having bye weeks (meaning that WR4 will play in over 21% of your regular season games at a minimum). If any of your top 3 WRs sustain injuries (or do not produce) your WR4 will be playing probably in the 30%-40% range of your games. Likewise your WR5 could be playing in as many as 20% of your games if you have WRs with similar bye weeks or multiple injuries occur at once.

Grabbing WRs (along with 3 RBs) in the first 8 rounds is imperative to team PPG and I will guarantee that by having better WRs (notice plural WRs, not just one WR) you will make up the PPG on average from drafting a TE early, especially if you target TEs in the 9th and 10th rounds according to some criteria that I apply.

You can obviously create situations where I draft Moss, Walker, and Horn and you draft Gates and two other WRs and your team production greatly exceeds mine.

However, I could do the same if the WRs I drafted hit and the ones you did late didn't. Specific examples with 20/20 hindsight really does us no good in this discussion because you do not have the benefit of knowing how all the players will do in the upcoming season.

As such you need to have a draft strategy that maximizes the probability that the players you draft will give you a better team PPG. VBD does not do this. VBD only works when you know what each player will do, which is the last thing you know at a draft. While good projections may get you in the ballpark, drafting the best team and getting value from ADP serves you better.
Interesting arguments. Where Gates should be drafted will be a hot topic all offseason. I think your point of view brings a new perspective to VBD. But to say Gates should not be drafted before round 6 makes little sense in my opinion because by then you are comparing him to what... WR20? In the unlikely scenario where Gates is available at the end of round 5, there is absolutely no doubt that you grab Gates due to the big drofoff from Gates to other TEs relative to the dropoff from WR20 to later WRs.

Yes we should look at our team from a global perspective and consider how many times we will need WR4 and the trickle effect of drafting a worse WR2, but I don't think passing on Gates in round 5 can be justified if we start using numbers or projections. I won't do it now, probably during the spring... we have months to resolve it.

I also agree that we can't compare to actual performances in 2005 to make a call. We will have to use expected values for 2006 for TE1, TE2, ... WR20, WR21, etc. to mathematically compare the strength of different teams.

 

stevec

Footballguy
I will say I'm sure that if he's healthy, Gates should go no later than the 3rd. He's producing like a top-10 WR, but gets to lineup up against the lesser producers at TE.

 

suspected

Footballguy
A lot depends on whether your league starts 2 or 3 WR, but I think many continue to underestimate Gates' value. In my start 1,2,2,1,1,1 non-PPR league Gates had the 5th best value number, behind only SA,LT,EJ, and LJ. His value was better than every WR.

Put me in the draft Gates early camp next year (2nd or 3rd) if you have a top 3 pick. Gates has proven to me last year was no fluke, and he should also be in a good situation next year. In a start 2 WR league its not nearly as important to worry about your 4th and 5th WRs. I spent a lot of this year with only 3 WR on my roster (harrison, rod smith, and driver) after cutting many of my WRs drafted in late rounds. IMO getting Gates early (if you already have LT,LJ, or SA) will more likely result in a higher team PPG than drafting another player early and waiting on TE until later rounds. Gates is high reward/low risk IMO; I like those players. Late 2nd, early 3rd RBs usually carry more risk IMO. If I get a mid to late draft postion next year I'd be more inclined to go RB-RB.

Here are the value numbers (as of 2 weeks ago) in our league using avg starter and worst starter as baseline. Our scoring is a little different than FBGs but the relative values should be similar:

Overall:

SA (135,160)

LT (111, 136)

EJ (80,105)

LJ (73,98) Note: These #'s underrate LJ because he didn't start many games

Gates (62,75)

Smith (57,81)

Tiki (52,77)

WR

SS (57,81)

MH (38,62)

Fitz (23,47)

Galloway (18,42)

Chambers (17,41)

Holt (14,38) underrated b/c of injury

Ward (13,37)

CJ (12,36)

Boldin (10,34)

TE

Gates (62,75)

Shockey (45,58)

Crumpler (19,32)

Witten (3,16)

QB

Palmer (31,54)

P. Manning (27,50)

Brady (11,34)

Bledsoe (5,28)

E. Manning (2,25)

 

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