Drafting Position Strategy (1 Viewer)

[bagger.]

A lot depends on whether your league starts 2 or 3 WR, but I think many continue to underestimate Gates' value. In my start 1,2,2,1,1,1 non-PPR league Gates had the 5th best value number, behind only SA,LT,EJ, and LJ. His value was better than every WR.

Put me in the draft Gates early camp next year (2nd or 3rd) if you have a top 3 pick. Gates has proven to me last year was no fluke, and he should also be in a good situation next year. In a start 2 WR league its not nearly as important to worry about your 4th and 5th WRs. I spent a lot of this year with only 3 WR on my roster (harrison, rod smith, and driver) after cutting many of my WRs drafted in late rounds. IMO getting Gates early (if you already have LT,LJ, or SA) will more likely result in a higher team PPG than drafting another player early and waiting on TE until later rounds. Gates is high reward/low risk IMO; I like those players. Late 2nd, early 3rd RBs usually carry more risk IMO. If I get a mid to late draft postion next year I'd be more inclined to go RB-RB.

Here are the value numbers (as of 2 weeks ago) in our league using avg starter and worst starter as baseline. Our scoring is a little different than FBGs but the relative values should be similar:

Overall:

SA (135,160)

LT (111, 136)

EJ (80,105)

LJ (73,98) Note: These #'s underrate LJ because he didn't start many games

Gates (62,75)

Smith (57,81)

Tiki (52,77)

WR

SS (57,81)

MH (38,62)

Fitz (23,47)

Galloway (18,42)

Chambers (17,41)

Holt (14,38) underrated b/c of injury

Ward (13,37)

CJ (12,36)

Boldin (10,34)

TE

Gates (62,75)

Shockey (45,58)

Crumpler (19,32)

Witten (3,16)

QB

Palmer (31,54)

P. Manning (27,50)

Brady (11,34)

Bledsoe (5,28)

E. Manning (2,25)

You are pointing out the flaw in VBD. Some "value number" based on some arbitrary baseline tells you absolutely nothing as to how to maximize your team points throughout the year covering for bye weeks and injuries. Nor does it tell you how much of that value loss you forego by not taking Gates in the third you get back with better depth and a TE value play later in the draft.If nothing else, VBD overstates the value of the TE.

Looking at one player's "value number" in one isolated round of a draft tells you to take the best perceived value at that point, but does not take into consideration runs, who will be there in the next round, or your team point production as a whole.

 

[Islander]

Here is a question for bagger - let's look at this from a different angle. If before the draft you had the ability to change your top WR into a TE, would you do it? For example, let's say you draft Chad Johnson as your top WR, if you could decide before the season begins that CJ will play as a TE in your league, not a WR (during the entire season), what would you do, leave him WR or start him as a TE? Assume you are the only person in your league allowed to do this. CJ would dominate all TEs by a large margin (except for Gates). On the other hand, you would be weaker at WR by doing so. Answer for a start 3 WRs 1 TE league? Answer for a PPR start 2 WRs 1 TE league?In PPR 2 WR / 1 TE leagues, it's a no brainer in my opinion. CJ would have more value as a TE than a WR even though you have to start twice as many WRs as TEs, because the competition at TE is weak. Therefore, drafting Gates in the 3rd round (where the top WRs are going) is a good option since a top receiver is more valuable as a TE than as a WR.In a start 3 WR league, it's hard to say. Feedback?

 

[stevec]

Here is a question for bagger - let's look at this from a different angle. If before the draft you had the ability to change your top WR into a TE, would you do it? For example, let's say you draft Chad Johnson as your top WR, if you could decide before the season begins that CJ will play as a TE in your league, not a WR (during the entire season), what would you do, leave him WR or start him as a TE? Assume you are the only person in your league allowed to do this.

CJ would dominate all TEs by a large margin (except for Gates). On the other hand, you would be weaker at WR by doing so.

Answer for a start 3 WRs 1 TE league? Answer for a PPR start 2 WRs 1 TE league?

In PPR 2 WR / 1 TE leagues, it's a no brainer in my opinion. CJ would have more value as a TE than a WR even though you have to start twice as many WRs as TEs, because the competition at TE is weak. Therefore, drafting Gates in the 3rd round (where the top WRs are going) is a good option since a top receiver is more valuable as a TE than as a WR.

In a start 3 WR league, it's hard to say.

Feedback?

I look at that particular question as trying to nail down the replacement level WR/TE - some might use "baseline", but I think they are 2 different concepts.Even in a 12-team 3 WR league, I'd do it.

Currently:

TE 11: Heath Miller 36 397 6

TE 12: Dallas Clark 37 488 4

WR 36:Muhsin Muhammad 64 750 4

WR 37rew Bennett 57 729 4

WR 38:Brandon Lloyd 44 685 4

...

WR 47:Chris Henry 31 422 6 - roughly TE 11/12

So we see that making by elite WR1 your TE 1 (assuming you get a TE near the end of the startables with your late pick) allows you to start a guy who falls somewhere in the WR 4 range (from WR 37-48) and have no loss of points, inf act you'd get an increase if you have an average WR 4.

 

[suspected]

You are pointing out the flaw in VBD. Some "value number" based on some arbitrary baseline tells you absolutely nothing as to how to maximize your team points throughout the year covering for bye weeks and injuries. Nor does it tell you how much of that value loss you forego by not taking Gates in the third you get back with better depth and a TE value play later in the draft.

If nothing else, VBD overstates the value of the TE.

Looking at one player's "value number" in one isolated round of a draft tells you to take the best perceived value at that point, but does not take into consideration runs, who will be there in the next round, or your team point production as a whole.

I'm just pointing out Gates' value number was #5 overall in my league. I'm not advocating taking Gates at #5 overall. I do however advocate getting the player that is #5 in overall value in the late 2nd or early third (even though he is a tight end) if you have a huge head start at RB having already drafted LT,LJ or SA. Your points regarding depth, bye weeks, draft runs, late round TE value are well taken. I think depth at RB is extremely important, WR depth much less important in a start 2 WR league. However at some point getting a TE that outperforms the others by such a large margin is a smart move. I think many continue to underestimate Gates value. How many realize his value number this year is about the same as Steve Smith, and better than every other WR? In a TE required, start 2 WR league I think drafting Gates early makes sense.

The question of when to draft the stud TE comes up every year. I agree with you that looking at the value number in isolation significantly overvalues the TE. (ADP data confirms this.)The question is "by how much?" given your league setup. I have reviewed several years of data from our league and looked at average expected value by position by round. I've run several drafting scenarios comparing expected overall team points when drafting stud TE early vs waiting for late TE values and drawn my own conclusions.