Drafting the rookie RB's......in RE-DRAFT this season (1 Viewer)

[TZMarkie]

 Every year we have a few similar threads, and I think its good to start the discussion now.

 In RE-DRAFT, most of us have relatively short benches, think something like 5-7 bench spots.   (Most of our leagues we pivoted to 7 bench spots last season (Covid) instead of our usual 6 spots, and we are keeping 7 bench spots in most leagues thankfully)

But, just a knee-jerk glance appears like 4-6 rookie RB's could  *POSSIBLY* be in situations where they are significant fantasy contributors if things fall in their favor. And if the injuries mount up, maybe even more.

But anyway the point is, most of these short bench leagues just won't afford us the luxury of stockpiling a bunch of these guys due to roster constraints.  I would imagine most of us are going to have to essentially pick several of our guys to acquire, along with the usual fantasy suspects.

So......... We are going to have to pick and choose which guys we like and gravitate towards in our summer drafts.

Obviously the most likely one to be drafted everywhere is NAJEE HARRIS as he should slip right in to a sizeable role right out of the gate.  He will likely be drafted in the top 2-3 rounds in many leagues.

But after that, it gets a bit murky.  I have my own thoughts about several, and I won't share them until I get a few other guys here opinions.

JAVONTE WILLIAMS is shaping up to be a must own handcuff (if you are into handcuffing) to Melvin Gordon, and he may be useful even without an issue with Gordon.

Will TRAVIS ETIENNE rise up and snatch the starting role from James Robinson early?

 As the summer news starts to surface, and training camps open we will obviously learn more.  But at this point, who are the top  guys you are looking to acquire everywhere you can in redraft.....?  Let's try and take draft cost into consideration too.  Obviously Harris will go the earliest, or one would think, but after that, who are the ones you re-drafters are looking to get and add to your RB stable to the 2021 fantasy season, and why?

 TZM

 

[TZMarkie]

I had completely forgot about this post, and I was starting to come up with something similar and then I remembered this.

Many of us here are in multiple leagues (often for $$$) and most of us have guys we trend towards drafting.

The one I am currently fading , is NAJEE HARRIS.  (But thats all because of draft cost,  I do think he's in for a sizeable workload right out of the gate though)

Anyhow, I'll start.

 The one I am currently trying to get everywhere is MICHAEL CARTER.  Yet again, it's all about draft cost.

Sure, there are questions at QB, it *IS* the Jets etc. etc.   I see some people's hesitancy.   But everything I have read on Carter and some of his scouting reports, is he has a "complete game".  He can catch passes, he is known as a "smart, patient" runner.

The main knock is the entire Jets situation. But check out the other RBs there.  Its essentially Tevin Coleman, and La'Mical Perine and its a bit of a wasteland after these 2.  I think we all know what Coleman is at this point, and even though he may well start the season as the so-called "starter", this job is Carter's for the taking.

Plus, at an ADP of 80+, you can get him as your RB3 or RB4 everywhere.   How many times over the years have these rookie RB's "come out of nowhere" mid season and ended up being excellent for late season pushes....? 

Carter reeks of a solid bench stash, with the upside of strong production if he takes the job over later on in the season.  I don't know if he will ever get 23+ carries a game, but I can see 18+ touches or more if things fall right for him. I don't quite think he could be the top 5 overall type RB for a variety of reasons.  But it certainly wouldn't surprise me if he cruises down the stretch as a borderline RB1/high end RB2 helping fantasy owners along the way.

NOTE -  from weeks 11-16, he has these matchups sprinkled in.  @HOU, vs Philly, vs Saints , and in key week 16 @home vs JAX .  Several of these should be good running matchups....judging from what we know now.

 Lets hear who all you re-drafters are actively pursuing as a bench stash or RB3-RB4.....and state your case.

 TZM

 

[zamboni]

Carter is a good call. I don’t see Coleman as more than a veteran that Saleh is familiar with and the other guys are holdovers. Saleh may never run Carter into the ground, but I think carries some meaningful PPR value. And as you say, he comes a lot cheaper than Harris, Etienne, Williams and Sermon.

 

[TZMarkie]

Carter is a good call. I don’t see Coleman as more than a veteran that Saleh is familiar with and the other guys are holdovers. Saleh may never run Carter into the ground, but I think carries some meaningful PPR value. And as you say, he comes a lot cheaper than Harris, Etienne, Williams and Sermon.

I also think JAVONTE WILLIAMS has an excellent chance to not only be a strong RB, but he might have the highest ceiling of all the rookie RBs.

But like I said (and you sort of alluded to also) Williams ADP seems to be rising by the day. (That's just what I'm seeing in mocks, but I haven't followed it that closely.)  He has several problems there, including a QB controversy , and  MELVIN GORDON is the elephant in that room.

We really don't know what the Jets offense is going to look like, and it may be a case of the "run-run-runs" because of their notoriously bad offense the last few years. But then again it might be so bad that virtually no one in a Jets uniform carries much value. (Kicker anyone???)  

All those things add up to Carter being the one I am targeting most everywhere, mainly because of lack of competition and draft cost.

Of course all that can change, since we are on the verge of the preseason.   Good stuff.

TZM

 

[zamboni]

I also think JAVONTE WILLIAMS has an excellent chance to not only be a strong RB, but he might have the highest ceiling of all the rookie RBs.

But like I said (and you sort of alluded to also) Williams ADP seems to be rising by the day. (That's just what I'm seeing in mocks, but I haven't followed it that closely.)  He has several problems there, including a QB controversy , and  MELVIN GORDON is the elephant in that room.

We really don't know what the Jets offense is going to look like, and it may be a case of the "run-run-runs" because of their notoriously bad offense the last few years. But then again it might be so bad that virtually no one in a Jets uniform carries much value. (Kicker anyone???)  

All those things add up to Carter being the one I am targeting most everywhere, mainly because of lack of competition and draft cost.

Of course all that can change, since we are on the verge of the preseason.   Good stuff.

TZM

I’m a delusional Jets fan, but I think Saleh will head this team - and offense - in the right direction.

 

[Ilov80s]

I love Carter at his ADP. He seems to still not really be on the radar for most drafters. I also agree the price for Najee is too much. We have the trifecta of suspect QB, bad OL and slow RB that could make even 300 touches look rather pedestrian. 

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I don't really get why we would need to differentiate between rookie RBs and any other RB as far as redraft goes.

 

[-jb-]

I don't really get why we would need to differentiate between rookie RBs and any other RB as far as redraft goes.

wider range of outcomes 

 

[TripItUp]

: blackdot:

 

[BobbyLayne]

I don't really get why we would need to differentiate between rookie RBs and any other RB as far as redraft goes.

Believe it or not, people will visit TSP this month with very little knowledge of where these players were drafted 100 days ago. I know, cray cray.

 

[TZMarkie]

Week 1 of the preseason is mostly in the books.

 The good news is MICHAEL CARTER "only" went 7 for 22, and he had 1 target which he caught for 9 yards.  I did notice Ty Johnson went 9 for 33.  Although I don't think he outright displaces Carter, he may get a small amount of action which may cap Carter's upside a touch.   (Not enough where I am ignoring Carter in redraft though, not by a longshot) In fact I would rather Carter have a quiet but solid preseason, still leaving him under the radar for most redrafters.

 I'm more curious as to how good Zach Wilson actually looks, (and more precisely how that may help or hinder Carter) so I'm going to watch the game in the next few days, although I know Wilson had scant few attempts.

I *DID* catch a little of the SF/KC game , and  TREY SERMON is now squarely on my radar as well, as yet another late round bench stash in redraft.

As I laid out in the original post, most redraft leagues have relatively short benches, so we have to be particular in who we are targeting everywhere.  Most of my leagues have 6 or 7 bench positions,  (start 2 RBs/no flex) but I try and leave every draft with AT LEAST 6 RBs . Obviously, there will be 3-4 veterans and 1-2 dart throws on rookie RBs.

As of now, MICHAEL CARTER is probably the main rookie I am targeting but Sermon is another I will watch closely as the preseason continues. I do know that SF has the Jags, Falcons and Texans, all week 10 or later, and I try and keep late season scheduling in mind, especially in the case of rookies.

I also saw the Broncs lit up the Vikings, but I have only glanced at the box score thus far. I'll most definitely watch to see how JAVONTE WILLIAMS looked.

HEY~!!!!!  @BobbyLayne   I saw Ameer Abdullah went 5 for 29 + 2 receptions for the Vikes too.      I thought that guy was out of the league by now.

QUICK EDIT - Any input or performances of note,  Shark Pool members may have noticed for these rookies is appreciated. 

 TZM