Draftkings/Fanduel Week 13 (Turkey Day!) (2 Viewers)

[Mike]

Been on a roll the past 2 weeks. Not sure if I'm getting better at this or just a good week in the luck department.

Brees

Bell

Mason

Stills

Hopkins

Charles Johnson

Graham

Zuerline

Ravens

Was my most successful week yet and got some decent money out of it.

Nice job even with Graham!

Edit to add: You too IgglesFan

 

[Mike]

You may have noticed on the value charts that I added another view, called H-value. (H because it was Dan Hindery who got me thinking in this direction.)

When you sort by value (i.e., points per dollar), you'll find some guys at the top of the list who are great deals in terms of points per dollar, but they're not all that likely to end up in an optimal-type lineup because they don't score enough points. H-value puts more emphasis on higher-scoring players, and gives you a truer picture of genuine value.

If you go to the DraftKings chart and sort WRs by value, for example, the top eight guys are currently Marquise Lee, John Brown, Robert Woods, Malcom Floyd, Michael Floyd, Harry Douglas, Steadman Baily, and Eddie Royal.

Sort by H-value instead and the top eight are Odell Beckham Jr, Antonio Brown, A.J. Green, Randall Cobb, John Brown, Demaryius Thomas, Jordy Nelson, and Reggie Wayne.

When you play around with the optimizer to find the highest-scoring lineups possible, the guys on that second list are much more likely to be included.

My old strategy was to sort by value and then look for guys toward the top of the list with relatively high salaries. A more convenient strategy is to sort by H-value and just look for the guys at the top of the list. It's a one-step process instead of a two-step process.

I've also sorted the Top 20 stacks by H-value, and modified the Top 20 stacks so that only players from the group of games you're looking at are shown. So if you have it set to "Sun-Mon," Thursday players are no longer shown. If you have it set to "Sun 4pm," only players in the 4pm games are shown. And so on.

How do you calculate H-value Maurile? I quickly noticed a straight sort wasn't ideal, so I tend to just use an IF/THEN formula in Excel to exclude the $/pt calc for players projected under x fantasy points (say, less than 8 PPR). Really cuts down the list.

 

[(HULK)]

Sitting at 139 with Mike Wallace left in my double ups. Had $500 running on this lineup... Kinda depressing to need about 15 more points to cash. Crazy high scoring weekend

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

How do you calculate H-value Maurile?

The original formula was projected points squared divided by salary (then multiplied by a constant for readability). But raising projected points to a power of 1.5 instead of 2 seems to give better results, so the current formula is projected points^1.5 / salary (multiplied by a constant). [The constant doesn't matter; it's just easier to read numbers like 20.63 than numbers like 0.010315.]

 

[James Daulton]

Do the $10 and $25 contests typically require higher scoring to cash? I've been playing mostly $5 and doing fairly well and thought I might start dabbling in some higher stakes.

 

[Keerock]

Do the $10 and $25 contests typically require higher scoring to cash? I've been playing mostly $5 and doing fairly well and thought I might start dabbling in some higher stakes.

My experience/history says no. I play almost all $5/$10/$25 games on FD and my average winning scores are 125.3/126.7/124.8 respectively.

 

[need2know]

Thinking about trying out draftkings. Never played dailies before. Any advice? Looking at their site I see beginner contests. What other types of contests should I try first?

 

[snogger]

A couple of contests where I'm at 150 and not in the money. Crazy.

I scored 153.7 in a $5 Quintuple and out of the money.. with this lineup:

Ben Roethlisberger

Le'Veon Bell

Arian Foster

Kenny Stills

Jordy Nelson

Malcom Floyd

Travis Kelce

Chandler Catanzaro

Minnesota Vikings... If FD gave points for Blocked Punt's returned for TD's I would have scored more <_<

that exact same lineup in a 10 team 50/50 is currently 2nd so should money there.

I bet $35 this week. ( Again VERY small bankroll, started the week with about $45 )

All in all, if my places stick( I don't have any Jets or Dolphins in my lineups) I should come out $6 ahead for the week ... Small steps..

 

[Zyphros]

Thinking about trying out draftkings. Never played dailies before. Any advice? Looking at their site I see beginner contests. What other types of contests should I try first?

When I first started playing dailys it took me a little while to get the hang of it. So I'd suggest playing some free contests to figure it out and get a comfort level. Then begin to creep your way into smaller tournament in price and people.

 

[James Daulton]

Thinking about trying out draftkings. Never played dailies before. Any advice? Looking at their site I see beginner contests. What other types of contests should I try first?

When I first started playing dailys it took me a little while to get the hang of it. So I'd suggest playing some free contests to figure it out and get a comfort level. Then begin to creep your way into smaller tournament in price and people.

Follow these threads too as many sharp guys are willing to share their thoughts about value plays. This has helped me immensely.

 

[James Daulton]

Do the $10 and $25 contests typically require higher scoring to cash? I've been playing mostly $5 and doing fairly well and thought I might start dabbling in some higher stakes.

My experience/history says no. I play almost all $5/$10/$25 games on FD and my average winning scores are 125.3/126.7/124.8 respectively.

That's great info, thanks.

 

[need2know]

Thinking about trying out draftkings. Never played dailies before. Any advice? Looking at their site I see beginner contests. What other types of contests should I try first?

When I first started playing dailys it took me a little while to get the hang of it. So I'd suggest playing some free contests to figure it out and get a comfort level. Then begin to creep your way into smaller tournament in price and people.

Follow these threads too as many sharp guys are willing to share their thoughts about value plays. This has helped me immensely.

Thanks. Guess I should deposit the max to take advantage of the 100% match. But I will for sure play some free contests and low dollar stuff to get the hang of it

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Thinking about trying out draftkings. Never played dailies before. Any advice? Looking at their site I see beginner contests. What other types of contests should I try first?

When I first started playing dailys it took me a little while to get the hang of it. So I'd suggest playing some free contests to figure it out and get a comfort level. Then begin to creep your way into smaller tournament in price and people.

Follow these threads too as many sharp guys are willing to share their thoughts about value plays. This has helped me immensely.

Thanks. Guess I should deposit the max to take advantage of the 100% match. But I will for sure play some free contests and low dollar stuff to get the hang of it

Try some other sites as well, they all have their own twist on the daily format and you'll probably find that you prefer one site over the others. FanDuel is the other big one and they also offer free contests. I've played on several of them but in the end I didn't have the time to manage entries on multiple sites so I just stick with FD, which I like better than DK. But they're both good, it's mostly a matter of personal preference.

 

[Keerock]

Having a really tough time putting together a M-T lineup on FD. May have to limit my exposure on this one.

 

[finger11]

Having a really tough time putting together a M-T lineup on FD. May have to limit my exposure on this one.

Yup, looks like I'm staying off this M-T.

I should be profiting at least 1k this past weekend, went real heavy because I felt good in my lineups. Most have cleared 150pts with some Miami D and some Tannehill still to go. Had a 1PM lineup at 211, with Graham, and a full lineup at 201 with Fitzmagic that I didn't include in any GPPs =/

Heavy on Fitz, Ben, Mason, Jennings, Stills (every lineup), A. Brown. DEF I had were Rams, Vikings, Giants, Houston, whichever I could fit. Heavy shares of Gordon and Kelce which didn't hurt much luckily.

 

[BigJohn]

Had 4 TE's in play.

Kelce

Graham

J. Cook

D. Walker

GRAND TOTAL: 8.2 MOTHER####ING POINTS!!!1!!!!!!

 

[Bobcat10]

My "limited exposure just want a little action" lineup.

Geno

Forte

Murray

Dez

Wallace

Williams

Bennett

Sturgis

Dallas

 

[Keerock]

Any chance Kerley and/or Simms can put up decent numbers (for their price) tonight?

 

[msudaisy26]

Had 4 TE's in play.

Kelce

Graham

J. Cook

D. Walker

GRAND TOTAL: 8.2 MOTHER####ING POINTS!!!1!!!!!!

I didn't have Cook, but my 3 main lineups all had these tight ends and all scored in the mid to upper 170's. my best line at 179 and change had Kelce, Steve Smith and Arizona kicker. Oh what could have been.

 

[avina1]

funny... my best line-up was with Blake Bortles as my QB. If only I went against my gut and went with the "h-value" chart, I could have gone with Fitzpatrick as Tremblay/Dodds have him way up there.

QB: Bortles

RB: Anderson

RB: Mason

WR: Brown

WR: Julio Jones (went contrarian and sided with Jones instead of Gordon who was around the same price. Julio would be lesser owned)

WR: Stills

TE: Gronk (could have been better if he could that TD!)

K: Catanzaro

D: Texans

total of 192.56.

the more I play FanDuel, the more I understand how it works to cash big. GPP take a little riskier plays, but you have to go for upside players. As I look back on some of my line-ups, I realize the error of my ways. For example:

1) Reggie Wayne in some of my line-ups. I fully expected Luck to go off, but didn't want Hilton in my line-up so I went with Wayne. Instead I should have chose a higher upside player like Fleener. His performance last week scared us all, but we forget that the Colts use their tight ends A LOT.

2) Rueben Randle. I expected the Giants to be in the red-zone a lot and have the Jaguars D to focus on Beckham more. Again, Randle is just not that great of a player and lacks that upside. Also, Jennings was due for a big game.

And sometimes, your risky but high upside plays just don't work out: for me that was Travis Kelce and Martavis Bryant.

It just makes sense that Deandre Hopkins went off, doesn't it? Most people had Fitzpatrick in as a good but cheap QB play against the bad Tiatns, and if you are going to stack him with someone, are you going to go with Andre Johnson or Hopkins? Go with the high upside play.

 

[finger11]

It just makes sense that Deandre Hopkins went off, doesn't it? Most people had Fitzpatrick in as a good but cheap QB play against the bad Tiatns, and if you are going to stack him with someone, are you going to go with Andre Johnson or Hopkins? Go with the high upside play.

I think I didn't include my Fitzmagic lineups in any GPPs because I was hoping he'd just hit double value for my 50/50's. I've started to enter those lineups in at least a couple GPPs, but of course this one I didn't.

 

[Keerock]

What are the odds of CHI putting up a bunch at home against a pretty (below) average DAL defense?

Jay Cutler 8400
Matt Forte 9400
Daniel Thomas 5300
Brandon Marshall 8000
Alshon Jeffery 8000
Eric Decker 6100
Dion Sims 4700
Caleb Sturgis 5000
Miami Dolphins 4900

 

[Keerock]

What are the odds of CHI putting up a bunch at home against a pretty (below) average DAL defense?

Jay Cutler 8400

Matt Forte 9400

Daniel Thomas 5300

Brandon Marshall 8000

Alshon Jeffery 8000

Eric Decker 6100

Dion Sims 4700

Caleb Sturgis 5000

Miami Dolphins 4900

Guess I could always hedge it with a DAL stack...

Tony Romo 8700

DeMarco Murray 9000

Daniel Thomas 5300

Dez Bryant 8800

Jarvis Landry 6900

Eric Decker 6100

Jason Witten 5700

Robbie Gould 4500

Miami Dolphins 4900

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Mon-Thurs value charts are up.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=tremblay_v14FanDuel14

 

[Keerock]

Mon-Thurs value charts are up.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=tremblay_v14FanDuel14

 

[BigJohn]

Putting in a lineup with each of the 4 QB's for Mon-Th into $2 tourneys. Who knows.

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

Had 4 TE's in play.

Kelce

Graham

J. Cook

D. Walker

GRAND TOTAL: 8.2 MOTHER####ING POINTS!!!1!!!!!!

Those were mine, plus a little Carlson because he's cheap. I'm thinking about just going bottom of the barrel salary-wise at TE from now on. I'm literally just throwing salary away at that position anyway.

 

[snellman]

Had 4 TE's in play.

Kelce

Graham

J. Cook

D. Walker

GRAND TOTAL: 8.2 MOTHER####ING POINTS!!!1!!!!!!

Those were mine, plus a little Carlson because he's cheap. I'm thinking about just going bottom of the barrel salary-wise at TE from now on. I'm literally just throwing salary away at that position anyway.

Good, keep your #### hands off of the good ones. You are nothing but a curse to the TE position!!!!!

 

[Mike]

How do you calculate H-value Maurile?

The original formula was projected points squared divided by salary (then multiplied by a constant for readability). But raising projected points to a power of 1.5 instead of 2 seems to give better results, so the current formula is projected points^1.5 / salary (multiplied by a constant). [The constant doesn't matter; it's just easier to read numbers like 20.63 than numbers like 0.010315.]

Thanks for the reply.

 

[msudaisy26]

A little food for thought. The Bears have been horrible at home this year

 

[Keerock]

A little food for thought. The Bears have been horrible at home this year

And the Cowboys are undefeated on the road

 

[Joe T]

Had 4 TE's in play.

Kelce

Graham

J. Cook

D. Walker

GRAND TOTAL: 8.2 MOTHER####ING POINTS!!!1!!!!!!

Please post your TE picks weekly.

 

[msudaisy26]

A little food for thought. The Bears have been horrible at home this year

And the Cowboys are undefeated on the road

I had to look that up, I couldn't believe it. That is an awesome stat.

Bears have scored 93 points in 5 home games

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

The Bears are terrible at home. The Cowboys are awesome on the road.

The best explanation: splits happen.

 

[fish19]

Thinking about trying out draftkings. Never played dailies before. Any advice? Looking at their site I see beginner contests. What other types of contests should I try first?

When I first started playing dailys it took me a little while to get the hang of it. So I'd suggest playing some free contests to figure it out and get a comfort level. Then begin to creep your way into smaller tournament in price and people.

Follow these threads too as many sharp guys are willing to share their thoughts about value plays. This has helped me immensely.

I play mostly 50/50's. I don't have a ton of time to research bc of work, kids, etc, so I just go to dailyfantasysportspicks.com and use their picks. Most sites I looked at have the obvious (start Brees bc he is at home, bench Forte bc he is at Det, etc). The guy who post for football gives excellent advice. I literally plug in his "bargain" players, avoid his "Busts", then mix and match my players I like with some of his "Best", and I have cashed over 80 percent the last month. I do a little research Sat too bc his article comes out Monday and it won''t account for injuries, etc.I am starting to play tournamnets now, just small 1's first to get my feet wet.

 

[Bobcat10]

Decided to look at the bottom teams in my 2 primetime contests.

McManus is 32% and 18% owned.

Julius is 3% and 5% owned. Even saw one loser have Ball.

I realize this happens when people enter early in the week and then don't fix their lineup or check for injuries, but you can't do that with these primetime matchups. They don't open up til after the 4pm contests close. Something to think about in the future with scratches of prominent players.

Unfortunately, Fanduel has already taken down McManus for this week. I could have still seen people taking him going forward at $4500 if they left him in the list.

 

[(HULK)]

Ugh. Lowest score I had was 148.68, highest was 160. Had $800 in play, $500 in double ups. Won $0. Unreal.

 

[Courtweeks87]

That last int cashed me about $450 on top of what I had already made! Thanks geno. Scoring was super high this week. I scored average of 200 and still only took forest place in 2 tourneys out of 8

 

[Bobcat10]

Best ever large tourn finish - 486 out of 46k people. Also cashed another biggie and almost even cashed the freeroll. Starting to hit on these big suckers every week, maybe once it will be for a nice winning.

Won every cash game I entered Sunday besides one double up (my only Graham lineup). Followed up one of my best weeks ever with easily my best week ever!

 

[SameSongNDance]

Won all of my triple ups save one (missed finishing top 3 by .08!) despite some sketchy plays (Tannehill/Wallace stack :X ). Up 426 on the week.

 

[jeaton6]

Won $562. I need to do more quintuple ups. At least this week the spread in those was only 8 more points than my double ups. 40th out of 34k was my best finish. Wish I'd used that lineup on the $10 GPP. Woulda grabbed me another $200. Oh well. Started with $100 and run up to $1k so far this year. Fingers crossed the run continues.

 

[jeaton6]

That last int cashed me about $450 on top of what I had already made! Thanks geno. Scoring was super high this week. I scored average of 200 and still only took forest place in 2 tourneys out of 8

Ate you talking big GPPs here? Nicely done!

 

[Blue-Kun]

Won $700 in one of the NFL Rushes this week after 12 pts from Caleb, though the FG miss at the start cost me 800 bucks in the end :X . Still to come so close to the top this week was unreal enough, esp. without having Fleener or the Rams and seeing such huge point totals. The latter stings a bit, since had I started them over Indy I win the whole 30K. Oh well, up 1,100 this week, so no feel bads here.

Big thanks to anyone who recommended Stills this week.

 

[jbz]

A couple of contests where I'm at 150 and not in the money. Crazy.

I scored 153.7 in a $5 Quintuple and out of the money.. with this lineup:

Ben Roethlisberger

Le'Veon Bell

Arian Foster

Kenny Stills

Jordy Nelson

Malcom Floyd

Travis Kelce

Chandler Catanzaro

Minnesota Vikings... If FD gave points for Blocked Punt's returned for TD's I would have scored more <_<

that exact same lineup in a 10 team 50/50 is currently 2nd so should money there.

I bet $35 this week. ( Again VERY small bankroll, started the week with about $45 )

All in all, if my places stick( I don't have any Jets or Dolphins in my lineups) I should come out $6 ahead for the week ... Small steps..

Same situation for me. Scored 140 and didn't finish in the money in my quintuple. I was all amped up watching Vikings score those TDs then I realized my score wasn't improving. Boo. Same kicker too, lol.

 

[Peyton Marino]

I'll put this in here so as not to clog up the week 14 thread. Does anybody know of an easy place to download NBA game log data into excel? Specifically, I'm looking to get every player's individual game stats for every game. Here on FBG, there is a tool for this here for NFL games. I realize this might be a taller order with more games in the NBA. I've looked around on basketball reference but haven't been able to find anywhere to get game data for the player universe. You can go to one player's page and download all of his game logs, but I'm not really looking to go to every single player's page to do this.

TIA

 

[Keerock]

Ugh. Lowest score I had was 148.68, highest was 160. Had $800 in play, $500 in double ups. Won $0. Unreal.

Ouch... Sorry GBH...

 

[karmarooster]

Ugh. Lowest score I had was 148.68, highest was 160. Had $800 in play, $500 in double ups. Won $0. Unreal.

So you lost $0 too right? Could be worse!I had a huge week, won over 700 on about 250 wagered. Despite sucky TEs in Graham Walker Kelce (gronk was just decent). I had stills in every lineup, Qbs mixed Ben and Fitz. RBs Bell Foster Mason and Jennings.

Just crossed $1000 on FD after starting at 250 this year. The goal now is to build on that return without going on TiLT!

 

[Keerock]

I'm curious how others start filling their lineup? Do you find the bargains first and then go for your studs to complete it? Do you find a cheap D and kicker first so you know the avg for the key positions? Do you find the studs you want first then bargain shop?

1) Stud RB with best value

2) Stud WR with best value

3) Upper-mid range QB with best value - this is usually a gut feel

4) Mid-Tier RB with best value

5) Best value K and DST (Value, not price)

6) Fill the rest with best value WR/TE that fit within the budget

7) Fudge 1-5 up or down a little until budget is met

This works 90% of the time to get my "best" lineup. Then I will switch out the QB with another I like and mess around with the RB2/WR2-3/TE/K/DST to fit. "Value", for me, is highest projected point per dollar based on a weighted average of projections I use.

For cash games, I'll try to find highest floor for 4-6... for GPP I'll go highest ceiling.

Here is how it worked out for my first look at Sun-Mon cash games at FD this week:

1) LeVeon Bell

2) Demaryius

3) Big Ben

4) Rashad Jennings

5) Crosby, Dolphins

6) Rudolph, Colston, Stills

Salary: 59,900

I will likely play with it a bit so I don't have Colston and Stills both in there. But that's a good base cash lineup.

FWIW, this is really easy to do using GBMTs Interactive Value Chart.

Good luck!

FWIW... although I didn't play this lineup exactly, it scored 165.30.

As I mentioned, I swapped out Colston so I didn't have he and Stills in the same lineup... luckily I swapped him for KAllen and Jennings for Mason. Good for a 198.8

 

[(HULK)]

Ugh. Lowest score I had was 148.68, highest was 160. Had $800 in play, $500 in double ups. Won $0. Unreal.

So you lost $0 too right? Could be worse!I had a huge week, won over 700 on about 250 wagered. Despite sucky TEs in Graham Walker Kelce (gronk was just decent). I had stills in every lineup, Qbs mixed Ben and Fitz. RBs Bell Foster Mason and Jennings.

Just crossed $1000 on FD after starting at 250 this year. The goal now is to build on that return without going on TiLT!

No, I lost the $800 I had in play. Ick.

Now down $1K on the season but still up $500 lifetime. Not sure if I'm done for this season or not. This is the second week where I had guys blowing up right out the gate and I was starting to count my winnings and then it seemed like everyone else blew up and winning was no longer certain.

 

[Keerock]

Another good week. Hope I can keep it rolling...

Week	Entries	Wins    Entry $	 Win $	  Profit $Week 1	9	5	$100.00	 $117.00  $17.00Week 2	9	6	$135.00	 $135.00  $0.00Week 3	11	5	$135.00	 $166.50  $31.50Week 4	15	6	$175.00	 $211.50  $36.50Week 5	22	13	$230.00	 $387.50  $157.50Week 6	31	15	$295.00	 $346.50  $51.50Week 7	34	14	$319.00	 $363.00  $44.00Week 8	54	25	$456.00	 $566.00  $110.00Week 9	58	28	$431.00	 $574.50  $143.50Week 10	87	23	$593.00	 $379.50  -$213.50Week 11	58	21	$358.00	 $328.10  -$29.90Week 12	80	48	$565.00	 $829.25  $264.25Week 13	86	49	$714.00	 $1125.50 $411.50	554	258	$4506.00 $5529.85 $1023.85