Draftkings week 5 (1 Viewer)

[Wonderllama]

I am completely stupid.

I stick mostly to Fanduel and haven't played on DraftKings since last year. This week I decided to spend this free $2 ticket I had. I should have entered a standard GPP, but no, I enter a 100 man contest that only pays out the top 2. The sad part is... I got 3rd. Oh, I just want to cry.

https://www.draftkings.com/contest/gamecenter/11033361?uc=169227972

P.S. I hate the Giants. They are dead to me.

 

[chauncey]

Giants D and Charles Clay torpedoed my lineups this week.

My DFS strategy has gotten progressively worse and the results have followed. Week 1 I used smart bankroll management, had an 80/20 cash/gpp split, put in consistent effort throughout the week in picking my lineups, and finished up 200%. Week 5 I wagered almost my entire bankroll, had a 90/10 gpp/cash split, and picked my lineups by using whatever looked good on the IVC (good to me, not the projections from the staff). Lost 80%. I was so desperate I was entering gpps willy nilly 30 minutes before the primetime kickoff and M/Th kickoffs with random lineups trying to save my week.

This is going to be back to the basics week for me.

 

[Ebaker5]

Broke even this week. Considering I had JC and O. Daniels in all my cash games, I will take it. Off to the drawing board for this week.

 

[KarmaPolice]

Yep, spoke way too soon. Everybody ended up catching up to me despite having people in tonight's game. Only ended up winning one 50/50. Long story short, I still kinda suck at this.

It's probably the 5th time I've said it in this forum but doing 100% 50/50s is very risky. You either win it all or lose it all.

What was your score? I did about 40 $1 h2hs. I count 14 wins with a score of 130. While obviously not great it's better than you would get with all 50/50s from that lineup.

I don't play with a ton of money or enter a lot of contests, so that could be an issue.

The one I won with and posted the roster above scored 169.30. The one I lost with in a couple others had a score of 143.4

Looks like my average score for the few $1 tourneys I entered was about 152.00

Maybe I have about $15-20 in play for fun a week. Usually have been doing three or four $3 and $5 50/50s and two or three $1 tourneys.

What would be the better way to attack this? I think I am slightly above 50% on winning the 50/50s over the last few weeks, and won $20 once in a tourney. So overall I am down a bit of $.

 

[freeannyong]

Yep, spoke way too soon. Everybody ended up catching up to me despite having people in tonight's game. Only ended up winning one 50/50. Long story short, I still kinda suck at this.

It's probably the 5th time I've said it in this forum but doing 100% 50/50s is very risky. You either win it all or lose it all.

What was your score? I did about 40 $1 h2hs. I count 14 wins with a score of 130. While obviously not great it's better than you would get with all 50/50s from that lineup.

I don't play with a ton of money or enter a lot of contests, so that could be an issue.

The one I won with and posted the roster above scored 169.30. The one I lost with in a couple others had a score of 143.4

Looks like my average score for the few $1 tourneys I entered was about 152.00

Maybe I have about $15-20 in play for fun a week. Usually have been doing three or four $3 and $5 50/50s and two or three $1 tourneys.

What would be the better way to attack this? I think I am slightly above 50% on winning the 50/50s over the last few weeks, and won $20 once in a tourney. So overall I am down a bit of $.

What I have done is make 1 cash lineup and use that for h2hs. I have put up great scores that last few week which would have resulted in 100% cashing in double ups (182 week 4, 171 week5) but I feel much better knowing my chance of losing everything for the week is very slim. If you score in the 45th percentile for the week and are playing 100% in 50/50s & Double ups you lose close to everything. You score in the 45th percentile and are in 100% h2hs you will win around 45% of them.

My suggestion if you want to have $20 in play for the week would be the following: 17 $1 h2hs (one lineup) then 3 $1 tournaments (your cash lineup, then 2 others). And with you playing so little volume there is really no reason to play the $3 and $5 cash levels. Just stick to the $1 level.

For the h2hs you can use rotogriders to search the user to just verify they aren't a super grinder. I usually just avoid the guys that are ranked fairly high on 5 different leader boards. This takes some time to do, but it's well worth it.

 

[jandyt]

Yep, spoke way too soon. Everybody ended up catching up to me despite having people in tonight's game. Only ended up winning one 50/50. Long story short, I still kinda suck at this.

It's probably the 5th time I've said it in this forum but doing 100% 50/50s is very risky. You either win it all or lose it all.

What was your score? I did about 40 $1 h2hs. I count 14 wins with a score of 130. While obviously not great it's better than you would get with all 50/50s from that lineup.

I don't play with a ton of money or enter a lot of contests, so that could be an issue.

The one I won with and posted the roster above scored 169.30. The one I lost with in a couple others had a score of 143.4

Looks like my average score for the few $1 tourneys I entered was about 152.00

Maybe I have about $15-20 in play for fun a week. Usually have been doing three or four $3 and $5 50/50s and two or three $1 tourneys.

What would be the better way to attack this? I think I am slightly above 50% on winning the 50/50s over the last few weeks, and won $20 once in a tourney. So overall I am down a bit of $.

I will throw in my 2 cents. First of all I agree with free in that you should just stick to 1 dollar contests no need to go higher with your budget. But if I was you I would go with 2 GPPs, 3 X5, 3 X3, and 12 double or 50/50. I wouldn't bother trying to figure out which H2H to grab.

My ROI for various formats on the year is

H2H 39%

50/50 and X2 63%

X3 71%

X5 171%

GPP -10% (yes I suck at GPP)

While playing the other formats may be a bit riskier than H2H your potential for profits is higher. Going straight H2H will limit your losses on bad weeks but it will also limit your winnings on good weeks. And if your in this hoping to make money then you have be thinking the good weeks will outnumber the bad weeks because if you have mainly bad weeks your not doing well regardless of what format you play. That said I play about 10% H2H, 12% X3, 12% X5, 5% GPP, and 60% 50/50 and X2.

As for lineups I go with 2 cash lineups for each major slate but with your smaller number of contests I would probably just do 1 for each of the 2 major slates with some cross over of players your highest on.

 

[freeannyong]

And if your in this hoping to make money then you have be thinking the good weeks will outnumber the bad weeks because if you have mainly bad weeks your not doing well regardless of what format you play

I agree with everything you said but the above. Yes if you have a bad week and score in the 10th percentile you will do bad regardless. But if you get that week where you score in the 45th percentile and get swept in 50/50s and X2 that makes to rethink quite a bit about what you are doing

 

[jandyt]

And if your in this hoping to make money then you have be thinking the good weeks will outnumber the bad weeks because if you have mainly bad weeks your not doing well regardless of what format you play

I agree with everything you said but the above. Yes if you have a bad week and score in the 10th percentile you will do bad regardless. But if you get that week where you score in the 45th percentile and get swept in 50/50s and X2 that makes to rethink quite a bit about what you are doing

It is partially about your tolerance for risk for me I think my good weeks will more than offset that rare week where H2H's do decent but everything else loses. But that doesn't mean that's best for everyone. Also by playing at least 2 lineups for each major slate you reduce the risk. My ROI so far support a reduction in H2H for me this year(I played a lot more H2H last year) but I admit that could change. My ROI does also support me greatly increasing my X5 play but my feeling is that 171% is unsustainable and will fall back down closer to where the other cash games are and playing more X5 certainly would greatly increase risk.

 

[KarmaPolice]

You both bring up some good info/strategies to think about - thanks.

Am I correct in assuming that if I go the route of a x3/x5, that roster should look more like a gpp lineup, or do you just submit a similar lineup across the board??

 

[jandyt]

You both bring up some good info/strategies to think about - thanks.

Am I correct in assuming that if I go the route of a x3/x5, that roster should look more like a gpp lineup, or do you just submit a similar lineup across the board??

X3 is more like a cash game. X5 is closer to a GPP but I tend to use a lineup that is more like a cash game which has proven successful.

 

[Hybrid]

Here's what my bankroll strategy has evolved into.

I enter contests early in the week, but save some GPP money for the contest lock to see if I can find some overlays. I don't usually find many.

All percentages are of the money I'm willing to put in play for the week.

80% to cash, 20% to GPP.

All the money is split evenly between THU-MON and SUN-MON, so 40% cash starting THU, 40% cash starting SUN, 10% GPP starting THU, 10% GPP starting SUN.

Of the 80% towards cash, I put 10% (so 8% of my total money in play) of that towards 1 H2H THU lineup, 10% towards 1 H2H SUN lineup. These lineups usually look pretty similar. I try to avoid negative correlation. I target for users with not many entries, sometimes look up the users, or just make my own entries and set it so I don't play the same user in every matchup. I mostly enter $1 and $2 contests.

Then, I have three more cash lineups for each of the two primary slates (i.e. starting THU and starting SUN). The amount I put towards each lineup varies depending on how confident I am with it, but for each lineup I put 50% of the lineups budget towards X2, 30% towards X3, and 20% towards X5. I usually target double-ups with large player pools, while I target triple-ups and quintuple-ups with smaller pools. My rosters usually have a player stack in each of them.

For GPPs, I put each of my already made rosters into a game, and then make a #### ton more to get exposure to some players I've faded so far, and some lesser owned players. If I get to a point where I feel like I'm getting diminishing returns or just throwing darts, I enter more cash games with lineups I'm more comfortable with, or enter some of the other slates.

Sounds like a lot of work, but I made a spreadsheet that does all the calculations for me, and I adjust the formulas based on how successful I am in each type of contest.

So far I've turned $25 week 1 into $400. I'm sure others on here have had more success, but pretty happy with what I've done so far. I'm risking pretty much all of my money each week, but trying to mitigate the risk by sound bankroll management and making sure I have decent exposure to a variety of players.

 

[jandyt]

Here's what my bankroll strategy has evolved into.

I enter contests early in the week, but save some GPP money for the contest lock to see if I can find some overlays. I don't usually find many.

All percentages are of the money I'm willing to put in play for the week.

80% to cash, 20% to GPP.

All the money is split evenly between THU-MON and SUN-MON, so 40% cash starting THU, 40% cash starting SUN, 10% GPP starting THU, 10% GPP starting SUN.

Of the 80% towards cash, I put 10% (so 8% of my total money in play) of that towards 1 H2H THU lineup, 10% towards 1 H2H SUN lineup. These lineups usually look pretty similar. I try to avoid negative correlation. I target for users with not many entries, sometimes look up the users, or just make my own entries and set it so I don't play the same user in every matchup. I mostly enter $1 and $2 contests.

Then, I have three more cash lineups for each of the two primary slates (i.e. starting THU and starting SUN). The amount I put towards each lineup varies depending on how confident I am with it, but for each lineup I put 50% of the lineups budget towards X2, 30% towards X3, and 20% towards X5. I usually target double-ups with large player pools, while I target triple-ups and quintuple-ups with smaller pools. My rosters usually have a player stack in each of them.

For GPPs, I put each of my already made rosters into a game, and then make a #### ton more to get exposure to some players I've faded so far, and some lesser owned players. If I get to a point where I feel like I'm getting diminishing returns or just throwing darts, I enter more cash games with lineups I'm more comfortable with, or enter some of the other slates.

So far I've turned $25 week 1 into $400. Pretty happy with what I've done so far. I'm risking pretty much all of my money each week, but trying to mitigate the risk by sound bankroll management and making sure I have decent exposure to a variety of players.

Question why do you look for smaller pools for X3 and X5? I tend to look for the largest single entry contests for each type of cash game.

 

[Hybrid]

Here's what my bankroll strategy has evolved into.

I enter contests early in the week, but save some GPP money for the contest lock to see if I can find some overlays. I don't usually find many.

All percentages are of the money I'm willing to put in play for the week.

80% to cash, 20% to GPP.

All the money is split evenly between THU-MON and SUN-MON, so 40% cash starting THU, 40% cash starting SUN, 10% GPP starting THU, 10% GPP starting SUN.

Of the 80% towards cash, I put 10% (so 8% of my total money in play) of that towards 1 H2H THU lineup, 10% towards 1 H2H SUN lineup. These lineups usually look pretty similar. I try to avoid negative correlation. I target for users with not many entries, sometimes look up the users, or just make my own entries and set it so I don't play the same user in every matchup. I mostly enter $1 and $2 contests.

Then, I have three more cash lineups for each of the two primary slates (i.e. starting THU and starting SUN). The amount I put towards each lineup varies depending on how confident I am with it, but for each lineup I put 50% of the lineups budget towards X2, 30% towards X3, and 20% towards X5. I usually target double-ups with large player pools, while I target triple-ups and quintuple-ups with smaller pools. My rosters usually have a player stack in each of them.

For GPPs, I put each of my already made rosters into a game, and then make a #### ton more to get exposure to some players I've faded so far, and some lesser owned players. If I get to a point where I feel like I'm getting diminishing returns or just throwing darts, I enter more cash games with lineups I'm more comfortable with, or enter some of the other slates.

So far I've turned $25 week 1 into $400. Pretty happy with what I've done so far. I'm risking pretty much all of my money each week, but trying to mitigate the risk by sound bankroll management and making sure I have decent exposure to a variety of players.

Question why do you look for smaller pools for X3 and X5? I tend to look for the largest single entry contests for each type of cash game.

Right now I'm not focusing on the size too much, but I mainly stay away from the multi-entry contests for X3 and X5.

The pool size is something I'm still debating. My thinking right now is I want to enter multiple low entry cost X3 and X5s for upside in my cash lineups, and by entering multiple contests with a smaller player pool I increase the variance some, while for H2Hs, 50/50s, and X2s I want to reduce variance. My logic might be faulty; I'm still thinking it through.

 

[EBF]

May eat my words here but I think I'm going to come completely off of Devonta Freeman. He'll be highly owned in GPP. Coleman is going to get some touches, tough running D matchup, and 3 in a row by a previous non-stud just doesn't happen much in FF

Extremely overvalued this week IMO.