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Dunn and Norwood (1 Viewer)

Holy Schneikes

Footballguy
I know backups generally LOOK more effective than they really are, often because of the situations they are in. But the difference between Dunn and Norwood, at least stat-wise, is night and day.

Atlanta guys, what's really going on here? Is there something there that the stats aren't showing? The few bits of Atlanta games I've seen this year don't indicate anything other than Norwood is just a better RB, but again, I haven't seen them all that much.

As for the stats, obviously Norwood is average over TWICE the YPC Dunn is behind the same line etc. But the thing that really knocks me out are the splits:

Norwood is actually averaging 7.1 YPC ON FIRST DOWN, on a bad team with no passing threat. This is through 43 carries (about half of his total). In his 97 attempts, Dunn is averaging 3.1. Also, when the game is close (tied, slightly trailing, slightly leading) Nowood is generally averaging over 6+ and Dunn is again right around 3. Norwood is also generally slightly better in the first half than the 2nd. All that to say that these stat differences are absolutley NOT due to ideal, wide-open 3rd down situations and late game prevent defense situations.

I hear about blocking a lot, but is Norwood THAT bad at blocking that the team is just willing to give up about 3 or 4 yards per attempt for every rush (which is a RIDICULOUS difference, and a huge disadvantage for the offense overall). Especially on 1st and 2nd downs when blitzing is at a minimum?

I have never seen a situation where the "backup" was THIS much better than the starter and basically remained the backup. I figured it might be Petrino, but Dunn still got half of the carries this past week.

Oh and by the way, Norwood is also cathing a higher percetage of his targets and doing more with them than Dunn, so that ain't it. Dunn has 54 targets and 220 yards. Norwood has just 34 targets and 240 yards.

 
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Not a Falcons' homer but it sure looked like the plan was to use Norwood a lot more against the Bucs. The reasons why it didn't happen was Norwood had to briefly leave the game with an injury (again) and Tampa Bay dominated time of possession. So the Falcons rarely had the ball. That Norwood still tied his season high for carries seems a strong indication in my opinion he's in line for more work the final two games - as long as he can stay healthy. To me, that's the biggest thing with Norwood. Every time he's in line for more work it seems like he gets hurt. But if the game against Tampa Bay was any indication Norwood might be a sneaky RB3 play this week against Arizona.

 
Not a Falcons' homer but it sure looked like the plan was to use Norwood a lot more against the Bucs. The reasons why it didn't happen was Norwood had to briefly leave the game with an injury (again) and Tampa Bay dominated time of possession. So the Falcons rarely had the ball. That Norwood still tied his season high for carries seems a strong indication in my opinion he's in line for more work the final two games - as long as he can stay healthy. To me, that's the biggest thing with Norwood. Every time he's in line for more work it seems like he gets hurt. But if the game against Tampa Bay was any indication Norwood might be a sneaky RB3 play this week against Arizona.
Hadn't heard about the latest ding. That helps. Thx.
 
Not a Falcons' homer but it sure looked like the plan was to use Norwood a lot more against the Bucs. The reasons why it didn't happen was Norwood had to briefly leave the game with an injury (again) and Tampa Bay dominated time of possession. So the Falcons rarely had the ball. That Norwood still tied his season high for carries seems a strong indication in my opinion he's in line for more work the final two games - as long as he can stay healthy. To me, that's the biggest thing with Norwood. Every time he's in line for more work it seems like he gets hurt. But if the game against Tampa Bay was any indication Norwood might be a sneaky RB3 play this week against Arizona.
Hadn't heard about the latest ding. That helps. Thx.
Norwood left for one series after tweaking his ankle.
 
I'm always weary of extrapolating numbers (see RB-Lamont Jordan-NYJ) but since I am very bored at work...

Code:
If Jerious Norwood had the same rushes and receptions as Warrick Dunn...2007	 GP	Rush	 Yds	 Y/G	TDs	 Rec	 Yds	 Y/G	TDW.D.	 14	 204	 635	45.4	3.0	  34	 220	15.7	 0J.N.	 14	 204	1302	93.0	2.4	  34	 326	23.3	 0Combined Rush/Rec stats from aboveTOTAL	GP	Touch	Yds	 Y/G	 TDsW.D.	 14	 238	 855	 61.1	3.0J.N.	 14	 238	1628	116.3	2.4Extrapolated for a full 16 game season:TOTAL	GP	Touch	Yds	 Y/G	 TDsW.D.	 16	 272	 977	 61.1	3.4J.N.	 16	 272	1861	116.3	2.8
 
I think with ####head, excuse me, Petrino gone, Norwood can finally come out of whatever doghouse he was in. The offense in TB was so brutally ineffectual that it's amazing Norwood got what he did. 17 minutes of possession? unreal. Pretty glad I missed that game.

Anyway, I actually do think they'll take a close look at Norwood these next two games, since I'm hoping the Petrino policy of benching players who actually perform went to Arkansas with him. But not on my life would I recommend you taking a chance with him on your playoff roster. This teams too busy figuring out their next tribute to a convicted felon, or trying to decide how they'll celebrate the next touchdown, rather than focusing on actually scoring it.

If you have an opportunity to carry him over in dynasty, absolutely, I think he gets a shot in training camp next year. Definitely worth consideration as your keeper as well.

 
Holy Schneikes said:
Atlanta guys, what's really going on here? Is there something there that the stats aren't showing?
Norwood has had major trouble in.... #1 Identifying which defender he is supposed to block, depending upon the opposing teams defensive look.

#2 If by dumb luck he did manage to figure out who he's supposed to block, he's still managed the ole` move quite a few times.

Supposedly he was Coached up on that aspect of his game during the Falcons bye, but that remains to be seen, as he still hasn't been getting on the field all that much. :thumbdown:

 
Holy Schneikes said:
Atlanta guys, what's really going on here? Is there something there that the stats aren't showing?
Norwood has had major trouble in.... #1 Identifying which defender he is supposed to block, depending upon the opposing teams defensive look.

#2 If by dumb luck he did manage to figure out who he's supposed to block, he's still managed the ole` move quite a few times.

Supposedly he was Coached up on that aspect of his game during the Falcons bye, but that remains to be seen, as he still hasn't been getting on the field all that much. :shrug:
He's been getting on the field more the past few weeks but it's not showing up on the stats. Over the last 3 weeks it's been a pure RBBC with the touches split about even between him and Dunn. I've had to start Norwood the past few weeks and thusly forced to watch the Falcons play and he's been in a lot of passing downs and he's done a good job picking up the blitz. I actually think they are mis-using him in this role as they should throw it to him more often and in fact should steal a page out of the Saints playbook. He may not have as good of hands as Reggie Bush but he's got decent hands and I think he's better in the open field.

 
I was surprised they didn't throw to him more against the Bucs - though, again, the time of possession likely played a part in that. But that was only the second game this season he didn't have at least one reception. I agree his best asset right now is his ability to make big plays in space so using him in the passing game would seem to be a smart move.

That said, the only other game in which Norwood didn't catch a pass this season? Against the Niners in Week 9. He did average over 6 YPC in that game for what it's worth.

 
OK, seriously, who does Dunn have pictures on? Not Petrino...

Maybe they just want a better draft? Dunn gets 12 carries for 13 yards to Norwood's 7 carries for 33 yards.

Pretty funny stuff.

 
OK, seriously, who does Dunn have pictures on? Not Petrino...Maybe they just want a better draft? Dunn gets 12 carries for 13 yards to Norwood's 7 carries for 33 yards.Pretty funny stuff.
Yet it still plays out like that almost every week. ATL is the armpit of FF RBs.
 
I predict Dunn will retire and Atlanta will bring in a #1 RB.
:goodposting: Dynasty owners tread cautiously. If Dunn retires, don't think Norwood is the RB of the future by default. Trade cautiously for him in the offseason and don't assume he's #1 RB/stud material. Greater chance he'll remain in RBBC situation or flat out 2nd stringer than a #1 RB stud.
As an owner in one league, that's definitely something I'm concerned about.He sure seems like he can do what needs to be done though and I just can't figure out why he hasn't really been given a chance to show it.

The answer may be just that the team doesn't think he can hold up as a feature back and want to limit his touches. Seems like the only reasonable explanation at this point.

 
I predict Dunn will retire and Atlanta will bring in a #1 RB.
:useless: Dynasty owners tread cautiously. If Dunn retires, don't think Norwood is the RB of the future by default. Trade cautiously for him in the offseason and don't assume he's #1 RB/stud material. Greater chance he'll remain in RBBC situation or flat out 2nd stringer than a #1 RB stud.
As an owner in one league, that's definitely something I'm concerned about.He sure seems like he can do what needs to be done though and I just can't figure out why he hasn't really been given a chance to show it.

The answer may be just that the team doesn't think he can hold up as a feature back and want to limit his touches. Seems like the only reasonable explanation at this point.
I'm an owner as well and am fairly certain that they will bring in someone ahead of Norwood on the depth chart this offseason, either via draft or FA.The fact that they are out of it and he's getting 7 touches a game while Dunn averages 2/yds a carries speaks volumes of something....I don't know what except have to think it must be his play when he doesn't have the ball, as other posters have noted. Maybe that is something they can correct this offseason, but no matter what he will have to fight for PT.

And I don't buy that feature back garbage, its just nonsense. They've said that about Fargas forever and look what he did this year when given the rock. He recently got hurt, but I guess LJ, R Brown, SJax, McGahee, Henry, Maroney, AP, Parker, Alexander, and Rudi all should be held to 7 carries or less as well.

So you trot Norwood out there and he gets hurt, so friggin what....you lose his current 30 yrds a game, whats the difference.

 
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