Dustin McGowen? (1 Viewer)

[Pnishthm]

It seems as every site and radio show is pimping D. McGowen to be a solid sleeper. I think S. Marcum being drafted 5 to 6 rounds later is the better pick. Marcum has always had a very low WHIP in the minors and if he learns to keep the balll down just a bit and can cut down on his HRs he could be very helpful to fantasy teams this year. All the hype on McGowen is making me very leary of him as he had looked just horrible before mid summer last season. Anyone else agree? Anyone here on the McGowen bandwagon? I'd like the hear others' thoughts about these two.

 

[Eephus]

McGowan has better K/9 stats, a stronger amateur pedigree (1st rounder) and is physically more imposing in a classic power pitcher way.

Marcum has good sleeper potential although he fell apart down the stretch last year.

 

[Spartans Rule]

I'm extremely high on McGowan. The biggest reason is that his component ERA last year was 3.10, almost a full run lower than his actual ERA of 4.08. His second-half component ERA was 2.89. If those had been his actual ERAs, he'd be ranked as a top 15 pitcher heading into 2008.

I also like that McGowan is young, has a great pedigree and power stuff as Eephus mentioned, and he's built to be a workhorse (6'3, 220, had 12 starts go 7+ innings last year).

I have McGowan ranked as my #13 SP this year. A little better luck on his ERA last year and he'd be labelled a young stud instead of a sleeper. Sure, he's a trendy pick, but he still offers great value in the middle rounds.

 

[Jefferson the Caregiver]

McGowan has had one good half of baseball in his career so far and he pitches in a tough hitting division.

I think he is being overhyped a bit.

 

[Knightro]

McGowan has a few key indicators:

High K/9

High GB% (low FB%)

Good control

Good defense behind GB%

Those 4 factors combined for a pitcher often lead to success.

Marcum just can't match McGowan with stuff. McGowan's fastball can be put anywhere - Marcum has to stay low. His HR/FB% has been 12 and 13% the last two years so the high HR/9 numbers are not out of whack for him since HR/FB for the league sits around 11%. His other problem is that he tires quickly because he throws too many pitches. Last year:

Pitches 1-15: .239 OppBA, .805 OPS

Pitches 16-30: .243 OppBA, .689 OPS

Pitches 31-45: .280 OppBA, .693 OPS

Pitches 46-60: .231 OppBA, .850 OPS

Pitches 76-90: .306 OppBA, .974 OPS

the deeper ehe goes into games, the more damage is being done

McGowan's numbers were supported with a .283 BABIP but the ERA was inflated a bit with a 68% LOB%

Marcum's numbers were lower: .272 BABIP and a 77% LOB%. That type of LOB is not sustainable for a pitcher and is only going to go down. As it goes down, ERA's go up. McGowan has room for improvement.

For me, McGowan is worth the hype he is getting this year.

 

[shadyridr]

McGowan's upside is ace pitcher, Marcum's upside is solid #3 pitcher.