dVBD discussion (1 Viewer)

[kinglochness]

When making up your dVBD boards, how do you evaluate positional dropoff? How many picks do you look ahead? Alot of people say use the number of picks before you get to your next pick. I don't like this because every owner isn't going to draft the same position during those picks. Even if they were, why look ahead that far at ALL the positions, right? Some people say it can be 5 or 10 or whatever as long as it's the same dropoff across each position. I have experimented with doing the opposite. RB's and WR's get a larger dropoff (say 10 spots) than do the other positions (say 5). My reasoning is because more RB's/WR's come off the board during any sample of picks. The exception would be the last 2 rounds when defense and kickers are being drafted. Does someone have a proven method for this? And how much does it matter? I have heard people say just draft the value, regardless of the dropoff. Any truth to that?

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

When making up your dVBD boards, how do you evaluate positional dropoff? How many picks do you look ahead? Alot of people say use the number of picks before you get to your next pick. I don't like this because every owner isn't going to draft the same position during those picks. Even if they were, why look ahead that far at ALL the positions, right? Some people say it can be 5 or 10 or whatever as long as it's the same dropoff across each position. I have experimented with doing the opposite. RB's and WR's get a larger dropoff (say 10 spots) than do the other positions (say 5). My reasoning is because more RB's/WR's come off the board during any sample of picks. The exception would be the last 2 rounds when defense and kickers are being drafted. Does someone have a proven method for this? And how much does it matter? I have heard people say just draft the value, regardless of the dropoff. Any truth to that?

The positions and amount of players to get before the big drop-offQB7 - Lower than Romo Is a mistake.RB12- after Gore Big drop off IMO Then a huge drop off around RB27(Beanie Wells)WR8 Andre Calvin Fitz Roddy Jennings Nicks Wayne Wallace - after that I see a big drop off ...then another after WR21 (Harvin,Welker,Colston,Maclin)TE5 - anyone after Vernon Gates Clark Jermichael Witten - you want one of those guys...I dont think there is any sure fire way to draft because you dont know how it is going to be dicatated (where or when the runs start and stop) ...so i think you just try to get as many of these guys as you can and call it a day . Just one guys opinion, take it for what its worth lol...Edit for Caps because its 3 in the morning

 

[kinglochness]

When making up your dVBD boards, how do you evaluate positional dropoff? How many picks do you look ahead? Alot of people say use the number of picks before you get to your next pick. I don't like this because every owner isn't going to draft the same position during those picks. Even if they were, why look ahead that far at ALL the positions, right? Some people say it can be 5 or 10 or whatever as long as it's the same dropoff across each position. I have experimented with doing the opposite. RB's and WR's get a larger dropoff (say 10 spots) than do the other positions (say 5). My reasoning is because more RB's/WR's come off the board during any sample of picks. The exception would be the last 2 rounds when defense and kickers are being drafted. Does someone have a proven method for this? And how much does it matter? I have heard people say just draft the value, regardless of the dropoff. Any truth to that?

The positions and amount of players to get before the big drop-offQB7 - Lower than Romo Is a mistake.RB12- after Gore Big drop off IMO Then a huge drop off around RB27(Beanie Wells)WR8 Andre Calvin Fitz Roddy Jennings Nicks Wayne Wallace - after that I see a big drop off ...then another after WR21 (Harvin,Welker,Colston,Maclin)TE5 - anyone after Vernon Gates Clark Jermichael Witten - you want one of those guys...I dont think there is any sure fire way to draft because you dont know how it is going to be dicatated (where or when the runs start and stop) ...so i think you just try to get as many of these guys as you can and call it a day . Just one guys opinion, take it for what its worth lol...Edit for Caps because its 3 in the morning

That's basically what I've been doing. Just looking at it and trying to catch a guy just before a big drop off. Been going crazy trying to figure out a way to do this with numbers though. Like is a dropoff of X worth passing because there is X amount of value over here, etc. Thanks for the reply.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

When making up your dVBD boards, how do you evaluate positional dropoff? How many picks do you look ahead? Alot of people say use the number of picks before you get to your next pick. I don't like this because every owner isn't going to draft the same position during those picks. Even if they were, why look ahead that far at ALL the positions, right? Some people say it can be 5 or 10 or whatever as long as it's the same dropoff across each position. I have experimented with doing the opposite. RB's and WR's get a larger dropoff (say 10 spots) than do the other positions (say 5). My reasoning is because more RB's/WR's come off the board during any sample of picks. The exception would be the last 2 rounds when defense and kickers are being drafted. Does someone have a proven method for this? And how much does it matter? I have heard people say just draft the value, regardless of the dropoff. Any truth to that?

You don't make a dVBD "board"; by definition, dVBD is not something you can calculate ahead of time. Your dropoff values are going to change on the fly as the draft proceeds. How exactly to calculate those dropoffs is debatable, but it's not something you do in advance.If people say use the number of picks before your next pick, what they really mean is to calculate the dropoff to players that will be available at your next pick. In the most basic sense, you can do this with ADP. A slightly more complicated and effective method would be to include information about your opponents' rosters at that point and their known draft tendencies. For example, say you have the 10th pick in a 12 team serpentine draft. When calculating the dVBD for your first round pick, you might want to compare the values of players still on the board to the values of players that will still be on the board by the time your next pick comes up (i.e. five picks later). Based on ADP, you may assume that the people in the 11th and 12th spots will take 3 RBs and 1 WR with the four picks before it's your turn again. So you could calculate the dropoff for 3 RBs, 1 WR, 0 QBs, etc. and base your dVBD values on those assumptions. However, you may know these guys personally and may be confident that at least one of them is going WR/WR at the turn. In that case you would adjust your dVBD accordingly. This becomes more useful later in the draft as rosters are partially filled out (e.g. if everyone else already has a starting QB, you may discount the present value of taking a QB because you're reasonably sure the same QB will still be available at your next pick).ETA: And I don't know what anyone means if they say "just draft the value, regardless of the dropoff." Dropoff is an inherent part of value, it's impossible to draft for "value" while ignoring dropoff.

 

[GregR_2]

What Ignoratio said. Using a drop off of the number of picks to your next pick means if you're 11 picks away from your next pick, take off your board the 11 players most likely to be picked regardless of position, and find the drop off.

It doesn't mean take 11 players off the board at every position and find the drop off.

 

[moleculo]

I haven't vetted it yet, but here's what I'm working on:

[*]use ADP to figure out how many players at each position are expected to go before I draft next. for example, assume I have pick 7 in a 12 team serpentine draft. Between picks 7 and 17, I might expect 6 RB's, 2 WR's, 1 QB, and 0 TE's. Let's call this # V.

[*]based on the above ADP, determine how many at each position should have already been taken. At pick 7, hypothetically I expect that 6 RB's, 0 WR's, 0 QB's, and 0 TE's should be off the board. Let's call this # W.

[*]count how many players have actually been picked at each position. Hypothetically, let's say 4 RB's and 2 WRs. Let's call this # X.

[*]subtract X from W. This is the difference between what actually happened and what ADP predicts. In this example, 6 RB's should have been taken, 4 actually were, so the difference is 2. 0 WR's should have been taken, but 2 actually were, so the difference is -2. Let's call this difference Y.

[*]Add Y to V, and that is my baseline for each position. For this example, the RB baseline becomes 8 (6+2), WR baseline becomes 0 (2+ -2), QB = 1, and TE = 1.

This is forward looking in that it uses ADP to predict when runs start, so hopefully you can get in before the run. It is also backwards looking, and tries to keep you from coming in at the end of a run. In this example, there was 2 WR's taken before ADP thought they should have gone...based on my ADP, those were reaches. At pick 7, this process tells you that you should not draft the 3rd WR, and there will probably be a glut of RB's taken before my next pick, so compare the top RB on my list to the 8th RB down, and the top QB to the next one down.

Anyhow, I think it's pretty slick.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

I haven't vetted it yet, but here's what I'm working on:

[*]use ADP to figure out how many players at each position are expected to go before I draft next. for example, assume I have pick 7 in a 12 team serpentine draft. Between picks 7 and 17, I might expect 6 RB's, 2 WR's, 1 QB, and 0 TE's. Let's call this # V.

[*]based on the above ADP, determine how many at each position should have already been taken. At pick 7, hypothetically I expect that 6 RB's, 0 WR's, 0 QB's, and 0 TE's should be off the board. Let's call this # W.

[*]count how many players have actually been picked at each position. Hypothetically, let's say 4 RB's and 2 WRs. Let's call this # X.

[*]subtract X from W. This is the difference between what actually happened and what ADP predicts. In this example, 6 RB's should have been taken, 4 actually were, so the difference is 2. 0 WR's should have been taken, but 2 actually were, so the difference is -2. Let's call this difference Y.

[*]Add Y to V, and that is my baseline for each position. For this example, the RB baseline becomes 8 (6+2), WR baseline becomes 0 (2+ -2), QB = 1, and TE = 1.

This is forward looking in that it uses ADP to predict when runs start, so hopefully you can get in before the run. It is also backwards looking, and tries to keep you from coming in at the end of a run. In this example, there was 2 WR's taken before ADP thought they should have gone...based on my ADP, those were reaches. At pick 7, this process tells you that you should not draft the 3rd WR, and there will probably be a glut of RB's taken before my next pick, so compare the top RB on my list to the 8th RB down, and the top QB to the next one down.

Anyhow, I think it's pretty slick.

I do this, too. I explain it basically asA = number of players at each position that are expected to be off the board by my next pick. (This would be your V + W)

B = number of players at each position currently off the board. (This is your X)

A - B = dropoff values for each position.

It works well, as you pointed out, because it corrects for the variance that can occur during a draft - if we assume that the draft overall won't veer too far from a certain pattern, despite some players going earlier or later than expected, then this keeps the dropoff values accurate and helps predict when runs are going to start and end.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I haven't vetted it yet, but here's what I'm working on:

[*]use ADP to figure out how many players at each position are expected to go before I draft next. for example, assume I have pick 7 in a 12 team serpentine draft. Between picks 7 and 17, I might expect 6 RB's, 2 WR's, 1 QB, and 0 TE's. Let's call this # V.

[*]based on the above ADP, determine how many at each position should have already been taken. At pick 7, hypothetically I expect that 6 RB's, 0 WR's, 0 QB's, and 0 TE's should be off the board. Let's call this # W.

[*]count how many players have actually been picked at each position. Hypothetically, let's say 4 RB's and 2 WRs. Let's call this # X.

[*]subtract X from W. This is the difference between what actually happened and what ADP predicts. In this example, 6 RB's should have been taken, 4 actually were, so the difference is 2. 0 WR's should have been taken, but 2 actually were, so the difference is -2. Let's call this difference Y.

[*]Add Y to V, and that is my baseline for each position. For this example, the RB baseline becomes 8 (6+2), WR baseline becomes 0 (2+ -2), QB = 1, and TE = 1.

This is forward looking in that it uses ADP to predict when runs start, so hopefully you can get in before the run. It is also backwards looking, and tries to keep you from coming in at the end of a run. In this example, there was 2 WR's taken before ADP thought they should have gone...based on my ADP, those were reaches. At pick 7, this process tells you that you should not draft the 3rd WR, and there will probably be a glut of RB's taken before my next pick, so compare the top RB on my list to the 8th RB down, and the top QB to the next one down.

Anyhow, I think it's pretty slick.

I do this, too. I explain it basically asA = number of players at each position that are expected to be off the board by my next pick. (This would be your V + W)

B = number of players at each position currently off the board. (This is your X)

A - B = dropoff values for each position.

It works well, as you pointed out, because it corrects for the variance that can occur during a draft - if we assume that the draft overall won't veer too far from a certain pattern, despite some players going earlier or later than expected, then this keeps the dropoff values accurate and helps predict when runs are going to start and end.

If this is something that is already in the Draft Dominator, please provide insight as to how to add / modify settings to do this.If not, please let me know (or even better, Bruce) so that we can add this option.

Thanks

 

[moleculo]

I haven't vetted it yet, but here's what I'm working on:

[*]use ADP to figure out how many players at each position are expected to go before I draft next. for example, assume I have pick 7 in a 12 team serpentine draft. Between picks 7 and 17, I might expect 6 RB's, 2 WR's, 1 QB, and 0 TE's. Let's call this # V.

[*]based on the above ADP, determine how many at each position should have already been taken. At pick 7, hypothetically I expect that 6 RB's, 0 WR's, 0 QB's, and 0 TE's should be off the board. Let's call this # W.

[*]count how many players have actually been picked at each position. Hypothetically, let's say 4 RB's and 2 WRs. Let's call this # X.

[*]subtract X from W. This is the difference between what actually happened and what ADP predicts. In this example, 6 RB's should have been taken, 4 actually were, so the difference is 2. 0 WR's should have been taken, but 2 actually were, so the difference is -2. Let's call this difference Y.

[*]Add Y to V, and that is my baseline for each position. For this example, the RB baseline becomes 8 (6+2), WR baseline becomes 0 (2+ -2), QB = 1, and TE = 1.

This is forward looking in that it uses ADP to predict when runs start, so hopefully you can get in before the run. It is also backwards looking, and tries to keep you from coming in at the end of a run. In this example, there was 2 WR's taken before ADP thought they should have gone...based on my ADP, those were reaches. At pick 7, this process tells you that you should not draft the 3rd WR, and there will probably be a glut of RB's taken before my next pick, so compare the top RB on my list to the 8th RB down, and the top QB to the next one down.

Anyhow, I think it's pretty slick.

I do this, too. I explain it basically asA = number of players at each position that are expected to be off the board by my next pick. (This would be your V + W)

B = number of players at each position currently off the board. (This is your X)

A - B = dropoff values for each position.

It works well, as you pointed out, because it corrects for the variance that can occur during a draft - if we assume that the draft overall won't veer too far from a certain pattern, despite some players going earlier or later than expected, then this keeps the dropoff values accurate and helps predict when runs are going to start and end.

If this is something that is already in the Draft Dominator, please provide insight as to how to add / modify settings to do this.If not, please let me know (or even better, Bruce) so that we can add this option.

Thanks

If it doesn't work like this, and you "harvest" my clearly layed out algorithm, i hope to be compensated... as does ignoratio, i'm sure.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

If this is something that is already in the Draft Dominator, please provide insight as to how to add / modify settings to do this.

If not, please let me know (or even better, Bruce) so that we can add this option.

Thanks

Functionally, this is a component of the dynamic values calculated by the Draft Dominator. Whether you choose Joe's "secret" method or some other baseline-determining system, this kind of process is being used.However, I don't know if this info is displayed anywhere (e.g. "Between now and your next pick, Draft Dominator expects that 3 QBs will be drafted, 5 RBs, etc...") Using the terms I described above, "B" can be found in the Team Stats window but I don't think "A" is displayed anywhere. I usually create my own static tables of "A" before my draft so I can keep track, but it would be neat if DD calculated A - B and displayed it for you.

Again, this isn't new information - it's already captured in the value calculations DD performs. I just like to see that part of the calculation sometimes.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

If it doesn't work like this, and you "harvest" my clearly layed out algorithm, i hope to be compensated... as does ignoratio, i'm sure.

 

[GregR_2]

I haven't vetted it yet, but here's what I'm working on:

[*]use ADP to figure out how many players at each position are expected to go before I draft next. for example, assume I have pick 7 in a 12 team serpentine draft. Between picks 7 and 17, I might expect 6 RB's, 2 WR's, 1 QB, and 0 TE's. Let's call this # V.

[*]based on the above ADP, determine how many at each position should have already been taken. At pick 7, hypothetically I expect that 6 RB's, 0 WR's, 0 QB's, and 0 TE's should be off the board. Let's call this # W.

[*]count how many players have actually been picked at each position. Hypothetically, let's say 4 RB's and 2 WRs. Let's call this # X.

[*]subtract X from W. This is the difference between what actually happened and what ADP predicts. In this example, 6 RB's should have been taken, 4 actually were, so the difference is 2. 0 WR's should have been taken, but 2 actually were, so the difference is -2. Let's call this difference Y.

[*]Add Y to V, and that is my baseline for each position. For this example, the RB baseline becomes 8 (6+2), WR baseline becomes 0 (2+ -2), QB = 1, and TE = 1.

This is forward looking in that it uses ADP to predict when runs start, so hopefully you can get in before the run. It is also backwards looking, and tries to keep you from coming in at the end of a run. In this example, there was 2 WR's taken before ADP thought they should have gone...based on my ADP, those were reaches. At pick 7, this process tells you that you should not draft the 3rd WR, and there will probably be a glut of RB's taken before my next pick, so compare the top RB on my list to the 8th RB down, and the top QB to the next one down.

Anyhow, I think it's pretty slick.

I do this, too. I explain it basically asA = number of players at each position that are expected to be off the board by my next pick. (This would be your V + W)

B = number of players at each position currently off the board. (This is your X)

A - B = dropoff values for each position.

It works well, as you pointed out, because it corrects for the variance that can occur during a draft - if we assume that the draft overall won't veer too far from a certain pattern, despite some players going earlier or later than expected, then this keeps the dropoff values accurate and helps predict when runs are going to start and end.

If this is something that is already in the Draft Dominator, please provide insight as to how to add / modify settings to do this.If not, please let me know (or even better, Bruce) so that we can add this option.

Thanks

If it doesn't work like this, and you "harvest" my clearly layed out algorithm, i hope to be compensated... as does ignoratio, i'm sure.

Draft Dominator already does it, in the Best Value window, but I don't believe it incorporates ADP. Instead it uses the Overall list to work from.

I.e. with default settings and current FBG projections...

Using DD:

At pick 1.01, dVBD would use Miles Austin, the WR7 as a baseline player as he is the WR in the overall ranking list that would be available at pick 2.12 if everyone drafted from that list.

Using your ADP method, there are only 4 WRs with an ADP of 2.12 or above. WR1 AJ, WR2 Calvin, WR3 Roddy, and WR5 Nicks. WR4 VJax actually has a later ADP than WR5. I'm hoping in your method you would use VJax as the exact player you'd expect to be there, rather than saying it's a drop of 4 and then going back to your own projections and counting 4 and using Nicks as the baseline?

 

[GregR_2]

If this is something that is already in the Draft Dominator, please provide insight as to how to add / modify settings to do this.

If not, please let me know (or even better, Bruce) so that we can add this option.

Thanks

Functionally, this is a component of the dynamic values calculated by the Draft Dominator. Whether you choose Joe's "secret" method or some other baseline-determining system, this kind of process is being used.However, I don't know if this info is displayed anywhere (e.g. "Between now and your next pick, Draft Dominator expects that 3 QBs will be drafted, 5 RBs, etc...") Using the terms I described above, "B" can be found in the Team Stats window but I don't think "A" is displayed anywhere. I usually create my own static tables of "A" before my draft so I can keep track, but it would be neat if DD calculated A - B and displayed it for you.

Again, this isn't new information - it's already captured in the value calculations DD performs. I just like to see that part of the calculation sometimes.

It's in the Best Value window, but it doesn't incorporate ADP.I think it's reasonable it doesn't incorporate ADP either, because ADP is only valid if the values being used are appropriate for your league. My leagues are flex QB/RB leagues where we start extra WR and TE and TEs get more PPR than others. If I used the average ADP values, it would put the top TEs being drafted 2 rounds later than they really would be in my league. So the Overall list is much closer to what people will draft than is any ADP that DD is going to have access to.

It might be a nice option to add for people in stock league setups where ADP is more accurate. But it shouldn't be the only way of doing the Best Value window.

ETA: I'll add, the Best Value window also lets you override the player it chose and enter how far down the list you want it to go. So you can use it to do the calculations for you, entering the number of player drop off for a position manually when there's a case of player ADP not matching close enough your beliefs on the players. So that example above, if you wanted to go with WR4 instead of WR7, you could just manually key that in but leave the rest using your overall list for the order to be drafted.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Using DD:

At pick 1.01, dVBD would use Miles Austin, the WR7 as a baseline player as he is the WR in the overall ranking list that would be available at pick 2.12.

Using your ADP method, there are only 4 WRs with an ADP of 2.12 or above. WR1 AJ, WR2 Calvin, WR3 Roddy, and WR5 Nicks. WR4 VJax actually has a later ADP than WR5. I'm hoping in your method you would use VJax as the exact player you'd expect to be there, rather than saying it's a drop of 4 and then going back to your own projections and counting 4 and using Nicks as the baseline?

Wait, what am I missing here? How do you reconcile the bolded?

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

If this is something that is already in the Draft Dominator, please provide insight as to how to add / modify settings to do this.

If not, please let me know (or even better, Bruce) so that we can add this option.

Thanks

Functionally, this is a component of the dynamic values calculated by the Draft Dominator. Whether you choose Joe's "secret" method or some other baseline-determining system, this kind of process is being used.However, I don't know if this info is displayed anywhere (e.g. "Between now and your next pick, Draft Dominator expects that 3 QBs will be drafted, 5 RBs, etc...") Using the terms I described above, "B" can be found in the Team Stats window but I don't think "A" is displayed anywhere. I usually create my own static tables of "A" before my draft so I can keep track, but it would be neat if DD calculated A - B and displayed it for you.

Again, this isn't new information - it's already captured in the value calculations DD performs. I just like to see that part of the calculation sometimes.

It's in the Best Value window, but it doesn't incorporate ADP.I think it's reasonable it doesn't incorporate ADP either, because ADP is only valid if the values being used are appropriate for your league. My leagues are flex QB/RB leagues where we start extra WR and TE and TEs get more PPR than others. If I used the average ADP values, it would put the top TEs being drafted 2 rounds later than they really would be in my league.

It might be a nice option to add for people in stock league setups where ADP is more accurate. But it shouldn't be the only way of doing the Best Value window.

I've never really paid close attention to the way values are calculated in DD (I use it more as a draft tracker than as a draft adviser)... if not ADP then how does it calculate dropoff values? I always just assumed it incorporated ADP somehow to figure out what kind of players would be available a round later, but I could be totally wrong about that.ETA: I just popped open a new league in DD and it looks like it's using ADP. In the Best Value window, it has a column for Dropoff and those values correspond to the number of players that will be taken between 1.01 and 2.12, based on ADP.

 

[GregR_2]

Using DD:

At pick 1.01, dVBD would use Miles Austin, the WR7 as a baseline player as he is the WR in the overall ranking list that would be available at pick 2.12.

Using your ADP method, there are only 4 WRs with an ADP of 2.12 or above. WR1 AJ, WR2 Calvin, WR3 Roddy, and WR5 Nicks. WR4 VJax actually has a later ADP than WR5. I'm hoping in your method you would use VJax as the exact player you'd expect to be there, rather than saying it's a drop of 4 and then going back to your own projections and counting 4 and using Nicks as the baseline?

Wait, what am I missing here? How do you reconcile the bolded?

I'm saying there are two different lists that you can decide who is available. An ADP list, and your projections.

In this case, ADP (i.e. the masses) say 4 WRs on average are taken by pick 2.12. However, David Dodds projections and the baselines I chose (left the default), say that the masses are incorrect and are not drafting WRs fast enough, and that 6 of them should be taken by pick 2.12.

Draft Dominator uses the rankings based on projections to decide what players get taken by 2.12. You are using ADP values to determine it. That's the only difference between the methods as stated.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

In this case, ADP (i.e. the masses) say 4 WRs on average are taken by pick 2.12. However, David Dodds projections and the baselines I chose (left the default), say that the masses are incorrect and are not drafting WRs fast enough, and that 6 of them should be taken by pick 2.12.

I'm not following this. I just opened a fresh default league in DD, so we should be looking at the same thing right now. Where are you coming up with these numbers?

 

[GregR_2]

If this is something that is already in the Draft Dominator, please provide insight as to how to add / modify settings to do this.

If not, please let me know (or even better, Bruce) so that we can add this option.

Thanks

Functionally, this is a component of the dynamic values calculated by the Draft Dominator. Whether you choose Joe's "secret" method or some other baseline-determining system, this kind of process is being used.However, I don't know if this info is displayed anywhere (e.g. "Between now and your next pick, Draft Dominator expects that 3 QBs will be drafted, 5 RBs, etc...") Using the terms I described above, "B" can be found in the Team Stats window but I don't think "A" is displayed anywhere. I usually create my own static tables of "A" before my draft so I can keep track, but it would be neat if DD calculated A - B and displayed it for you.

Again, this isn't new information - it's already captured in the value calculations DD performs. I just like to see that part of the calculation sometimes.

It's in the Best Value window, but it doesn't incorporate ADP.I think it's reasonable it doesn't incorporate ADP either, because ADP is only valid if the values being used are appropriate for your league. My leagues are flex QB/RB leagues where we start extra WR and TE and TEs get more PPR than others. If I used the average ADP values, it would put the top TEs being drafted 2 rounds later than they really would be in my league.

It might be a nice option to add for people in stock league setups where ADP is more accurate. But it shouldn't be the only way of doing the Best Value window.

I've never really paid close attention to the way values are calculated in DD (I use it more as a draft tracker than as a draft adviser)... if not ADP then how does it calculate dropoff values? I always just assumed it incorporated ADP somehow to figure out what kind of players would be available a round later, but I could be totally wrong about that.ETA: I just popped open a new league in DD and it looks like it's using ADP. In the Best Value window, it has a column for Dropoff and those values correspond to the number of players that will be taken between 1.01 and 2.12, based on ADP.

Create a new league, and import latest projections and open Best Value.For pick 1.01, looking at next pick (2.12) as the distance to look ahead by default... Andre Johnson has a value of 40. Look at his actual fantasy points, 190, and notice that a 40 point drop off gives you Mile Austin with 150 points.

Now look at where Miles Austin is in the overall tab. He's WR7 and overall he's player 27, which would be the highest WR available at pick 2.12, the 24th pick, assuming your league drafts in the order of the Overall tab.

If it used ADP as you are using, you'll note that VJax, WR4 and Overall player 19, is being taken at an ADP of 3.04, and so if you use ADP, he's the WR highest in YOUR rankings that you assume would be available at pick 2.12.

It all comes down to whether you use the ADP list to assume order players are drafted, or if you use the Overall list. The issue as I mentioned is that ADP only applies to leagues of a similar set up. There isn't an ADP list available that would give me good results using your method, because my leagues are non-standard.

 

[moleculo]

also, I do some really nerdy stuff to predict # of players at a position that will get drafted based on ADP...it's not just a simple count, all though a simple count is probably pretty good too. It's a little complicated and I didn't want people to get all TL/DR on me. There are a couple of other inherent flaws involving baselines and dis-continuous dropoffs between tiers. I don't have this solved yet, but I've got some good thoughts on how to accomplish this.

Joe/Bruce - if you want the breakdown on how to do this, send me a PM and we can discuss compensation. TIA.

Also, when I import my ADP list, I generally find one that most closely resembles my league in terms of scoring, # of teams, etc. I also have it set up such that I can import the ADP list the night before the draft, so it's as current as it can possibly be.

 

[GregR_2]

also, I do some really nerdy stuff to predict # of players at a position that will get drafted based on ADP...it's not just a simple count, all though a simple count is probably pretty good too. It's a little complicated and I didn't want people to get all TL/DR on me. There are a couple of other inherent flaws involving baselines and dis-continuous dropoffs between tiers. I don't have this solved yet, but I've got some good thoughts on how to accomplish this.

Joe/Bruce - if you want the breakdown on how to do this, send me a PM and we can discuss compensation. TIA.

Also, when I import my ADP list, I generally find one that most closely resembles my league in terms of scoring, # of teams, etc. I also have it set up such that I can import the ADP list the night before the draft, so it's as current as it can possibly be.

If you have some good stuff in the other parts you haven't gone into, I hope it is something you can work out and get in DD and with compensation even.But I wouldn't expect any compensation for what you've shared in the thread if I were you, even if DD gets modified to do more with ADP. I'm not saying I don't appreciate you posting and causing this discussion, but it is stuff we've talked about before on this board, not anything that you'd have any intellectual property rights over.

Speaking of which, won't have a chance to go through this thread in detail for a bit, but it has some methods for using dVBD based off of ADP in the Best Value part of Draft Dominator: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=475485

 

[moleculo]

You'd be suprised at how little compensation it would take to make me happy.

 

[GregR_2]

You'd be suprised at how little compensation it would take to make me happy.

Ice cream cone, ala Kris Kluwe?

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

If this is something that is already in the Draft Dominator, please provide insight as to how to add / modify settings to do this.

If not, please let me know (or even better, Bruce) so that we can add this option.

Thanks

Functionally, this is a component of the dynamic values calculated by the Draft Dominator. Whether you choose Joe's "secret" method or some other baseline-determining system, this kind of process is being used.However, I don't know if this info is displayed anywhere (e.g. "Between now and your next pick, Draft Dominator expects that 3 QBs will be drafted, 5 RBs, etc...") Using the terms I described above, "B" can be found in the Team Stats window but I don't think "A" is displayed anywhere. I usually create my own static tables of "A" before my draft so I can keep track, but it would be neat if DD calculated A - B and displayed it for you.

Again, this isn't new information - it's already captured in the value calculations DD performs. I just like to see that part of the calculation sometimes.

It's in the Best Value window, but it doesn't incorporate ADP.I think it's reasonable it doesn't incorporate ADP either, because ADP is only valid if the values being used are appropriate for your league. My leagues are flex QB/RB leagues where we start extra WR and TE and TEs get more PPR than others. If I used the average ADP values, it would put the top TEs being drafted 2 rounds later than they really would be in my league.

It might be a nice option to add for people in stock league setups where ADP is more accurate. But it shouldn't be the only way of doing the Best Value window.

I've never really paid close attention to the way values are calculated in DD (I use it more as a draft tracker than as a draft adviser)... if not ADP then how does it calculate dropoff values? I always just assumed it incorporated ADP somehow to figure out what kind of players would be available a round later, but I could be totally wrong about that.ETA: I just popped open a new league in DD and it looks like it's using ADP. In the Best Value window, it has a column for Dropoff and those values correspond to the number of players that will be taken between 1.01 and 2.12, based on ADP.

Create a new league, and import latest projections and open Best Value.For pick 1.01, looking at next pick (2.12) as the distance to look ahead by default... Andre Johnson has a value of 40. Look at his actual fantasy points, 190, and notice that a 40 point drop off gives you Mile Austin with 150 points.

Now look at where Miles Austin is in the overall tab. He's WR7 and overall he's player 27, which would be the highest WR available at pick 2.12, the 24th pick, assuming your league drafts in the order of the Overall tab.

If it used ADP as you are using, you'll note that VJax, WR4 and Overall player 19, is being taken at an ADP of 3.04, and so if you use ADP, he's the WR highest in YOUR rankings that you assume would be available at pick 2.12.

It all comes down to whether you use the ADP list to assume order players are drafted, or if you use the Overall list. The issue as I mentioned is that ADP only applies to leagues of a similar set up. There isn't an ADP list available that would give me good results using your method, because my leagues are non-standard.

OK, I think I see what you're saying (I'm a little distracted with other stuff at the moment so I'm not paying 100% attention). I need to look at it later when I have some time, though. I think what I really need to do is just reverse-engineer Joe's "secret" formula so I know exactly what's going on behind the scenes. I do agree that ADP is problematic in that it's not necessarily tailored to your league setup and tendencies. For me personally, I just play in two leagues each year, one local league where I know pretty much what everyone's going to do, and one of those big contests, where I always draft on the last day possible (and can therefore compile all the draft results from all the leagues that drafted before mine). So I'm always using ADP that is very applicable to my league.

 

[GregR_2]

I should preface some of my earlier comments....

That's what I saw when looking at what DD is giving me. I'm seeing comments in that other thread I linked to that Draft Dominator does (or at least is supposed to) be able to calculate drops using the ADP list.

Though it may require having a couple of settings just right which I'm guessing I don't. I turned on the choose other teams by ADP option, but didn't see it change. It's talking about maybe needing to use a custom ADP file though before it kicks in.

Need to read more when I can concentrate and play with it.

 

[GregR_2]

Ok, I confirmed that Draft Dominator can use the ADP to determine the drop off for your Best Value.

I did a test where I doctored the ADP and re-imported it so that the top ADP slots were extra WR heavy. Where before it had 7 WRs going between 1.1 and 2.12, now it has 12 of them going based on ADP, and that reflected in the final result.

I think to do this you need to go into Setup and check the Draft Other Teams by ADP in the first window... and I think you also need to Import an ADP file. I imagine you could just export and re-import the existing ADP. But it didn't start using the ADP until I did an import.

 

[bengalbuck]

Lots of interesting stuff in this thread. Thanks to all who have contributed.

I'm relatively new to a lot of this stuff but love reading/thinking about it. There's a lot to digest here and obviously some smart players posting.

Can I ask what is probably a stupid question though...why is the VBD in this application only calculated as guy available at current pick minus guy available at next pick (at the position). I understand it I think, I just don't know why its useful unless you are basically limiting yourself to 2 positions at the 2 picks (i.e. you know you want to go RB/WR in some order in the first 2 rounds, so this would be very useful in deciding which to take 1st and which 2nd). How does it help you decide for example whether you should go WR/WR or RB/RB or whether you should draft a QB in the 3rd or wait until the 6th? Not sure if that question makes sense...

Thanks in advance.

 

[GregR_2]

Lots of interesting stuff in this thread. Thanks to all who have contributed. I'm relatively new to a lot of this stuff but love reading/thinking about it. There's a lot to digest here and obviously some smart players posting. Can I ask what is probably a stupid question though...why is the VBD in this application only calculated as guy available at current pick minus guy available at next pick (at the position). I understand it I think, I just don't know why its useful unless you are basically limiting yourself to 2 positions at the 2 picks (i.e. you know you want to go RB/WR in some order in the first 2 rounds, so this would be very useful in deciding which to take 1st and which 2nd). How does it help you decide for example whether you should go WR/WR or RB/RB or whether you should draft a QB in the 3rd or wait until the 6th? Not sure if that question makes sense...Thanks in advance.

This method is one tool in your toolkit. Yes in application it's most useful when you already know you're going to take a WR this round and a QB next round, for example. However, understanding how to do this also gives you the foundation for being able to expand it to your entire draft strategy like you're talking about.We're talking about how to maximize the value of one particular pick, only in relation to your next pick. To do that, you need to know the players available now and at the next pick. When you want to take it further, then you're doing it with 3 rounds worth of picks. Who are the players available at each pick along the way, and what total combination is best?The problem with trying to do this mathematically is that it's a nasty equation to try to solve for something even as simple as 7 rounds. Especially when you may be taking backups before some starters, etc.So to me this is a great method for the middle of the draft especially when I'm filling out my starters and I'm down to only 2-4 slots left.As for coming up with a draft strategy, I try to get at the same kind of information, but I don't bother trying to figure out players available at every pick. Instead I try to find players who are better values than others where they are being drafted, and then try to come up with a strategy that will have me picking those players.So I take a look at the players as I rank them, and their ADP (or what I expect it to be in my league). The players that are being drafted later than I think are ones I highlight. Then I start looking at those highlighted players available at each of my picks and try to figure out those sets of players that will give me the best result. With some added thought to what happens if someone else likes that player too and beats me to them.I think Dodds follows the same sort of planning when doing his Perfect Draft articles. But when you're in the middle of your draft and 60 seconds on the clock to make your decision, this kind of dynamic VBD look can help you maximize this pick and next.

 

[kinglochness]

When making up your dVBD boards, how do you evaluate positional dropoff? How many picks do you look ahead? Alot of people say use the number of picks before you get to your next pick. I don't like this because every owner isn't going to draft the same position during those picks. Even if they were, why look ahead that far at ALL the positions, right? Some people say it can be 5 or 10 or whatever as long as it's the same dropoff across each position. I have experimented with doing the opposite. RB's and WR's get a larger dropoff (say 10 spots) than do the other positions (say 5). My reasoning is because more RB's/WR's come off the board during any sample of picks. The exception would be the last 2 rounds when defense and kickers are being drafted. Does someone have a proven method for this? And how much does it matter? I have heard people say just draft the value, regardless of the dropoff. Any truth to that?

You don't make a dVBD "board"; by definition, dVBD is not something you can calculate ahead of time. Your dropoff values are going to change on the fly as the draft proceeds. How exactly to calculate those dropoffs is debatable, but it's not something you do in advance.If people say use the number of picks before your next pick, what they really mean is to calculate the dropoff to players that will be available at your next pick. In the most basic sense, you can do this with ADP. A slightly more complicated and effective method would be to include information about your opponents' rosters at that point and their known draft tendencies. For example, say you have the 10th pick in a 12 team serpentine draft. When calculating the dVBD for your first round pick, you might want to compare the values of players still on the board to the values of players that will still be on the board by the time your next pick comes up (i.e. five picks later). Based on ADP, you may assume that the people in the 11th and 12th spots will take 3 RBs and 1 WR with the four picks before it's your turn again. So you could calculate the dropoff for 3 RBs, 1 WR, 0 QBs, etc. and base your dVBD values on those assumptions. However, you may know these guys personally and may be confident that at least one of them is going WR/WR at the turn. In that case you would adjust your dVBD accordingly. This becomes more useful later in the draft as rosters are partially filled out (e.g. if everyone else already has a starting QB, you may discount the present value of taking a QB because you're reasonably sure the same QB will still be available at your next pick).ETA: And I don't know what anyone means if they say "just draft the value, regardless of the dropoff." Dropoff is an inherent part of value, it's impossible to draft for "value" while ignoring dropoff.

Thanks. Good info here. I keep an eye on ADP and watch what positions have already taken (especially QB in the early rounds). Still feel like there is guesswork that I could nail down here. I have never really used it late in the draft like you are saying. Will make sure to make use of that this year. Just to clarify, when I say make a dVBD board, I mean building my spreadsheet to calculate these values as the draft is going. Obviously, I wouldn't be able to see these values before drafting.

 

[kinglochness]

I haven't vetted it yet, but here's what I'm working on:

[*]use ADP to figure out how many players at each position are expected to go before I draft next. for example, assume I have pick 7 in a 12 team serpentine draft. Between picks 7 and 17, I might expect 6 RB's, 2 WR's, 1 QB, and 0 TE's. Let's call this # V.

[*]based on the above ADP, determine how many at each position should have already been taken. At pick 7, hypothetically I expect that 6 RB's, 0 WR's, 0 QB's, and 0 TE's should be off the board. Let's call this # W.

[*]count how many players have actually been picked at each position. Hypothetically, let's say 4 RB's and 2 WRs. Let's call this # X.

[*]subtract X from W. This is the difference between what actually happened and what ADP predicts. In this example, 6 RB's should have been taken, 4 actually were, so the difference is 2. 0 WR's should have been taken, but 2 actually were, so the difference is -2. Let's call this difference Y.

[*]Add Y to V, and that is my baseline for each position. For this example, the RB baseline becomes 8 (6+2), WR baseline becomes 0 (2+ -2), QB = 1, and TE = 1.

This is forward looking in that it uses ADP to predict when runs start, so hopefully you can get in before the run. It is also backwards looking, and tries to keep you from coming in at the end of a run. In this example, there was 2 WR's taken before ADP thought they should have gone...based on my ADP, those were reaches. At pick 7, this process tells you that you should not draft the 3rd WR, and there will probably be a glut of RB's taken before my next pick, so compare the top RB on my list to the 8th RB down, and the top QB to the next one down.

Anyhow, I think it's pretty slick.

I do this, too. I explain it basically asA = number of players at each position that are expected to be off the board by my next pick. (This would be your V + W)

B = number of players at each position currently off the board. (This is your X)

A - B = dropoff values for each position.

It works well, as you pointed out, because it corrects for the variance that can occur during a draft - if we assume that the draft overall won't veer too far from a certain pattern, despite some players going earlier or later than expected, then this keeps the dropoff values accurate and helps predict when runs are going to start and end.

This is totally new to me. I LOVE it. If I understand you right, you can use ADP to figure your V value for all your picks before the draft starts, right? I'm not seeing a reason you have to do it on the fly, but I might be missing something.

 

[kinglochness]

Using DD:

At pick 1.01, dVBD would use Miles Austin, the WR7 as a baseline player as he is the WR in the overall ranking list that would be available at pick 2.12.

Using your ADP method, there are only 4 WRs with an ADP of 2.12 or above. WR1 AJ, WR2 Calvin, WR3 Roddy, and WR5 Nicks. WR4 VJax actually has a later ADP than WR5. I'm hoping in your method you would use VJax as the exact player you'd expect to be there, rather than saying it's a drop of 4 and then going back to your own projections and counting 4 and using Nicks as the baseline?

Wait, what am I missing here? How do you reconcile the bolded?

If I've got this right, it gets reconciled as you "players already drafted" number changes with each pick.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

I haven't vetted it yet, but here's what I'm working on:

[*]use ADP to figure out how many players at each position are expected to go before I draft next. for example, assume I have pick 7 in a 12 team serpentine draft. Between picks 7 and 17, I might expect 6 RB's, 2 WR's, 1 QB, and 0 TE's. Let's call this # V.

[*]based on the above ADP, determine how many at each position should have already been taken. At pick 7, hypothetically I expect that 6 RB's, 0 WR's, 0 QB's, and 0 TE's should be off the board. Let's call this # W.

[*]count how many players have actually been picked at each position. Hypothetically, let's say 4 RB's and 2 WRs. Let's call this # X.

[*]subtract X from W. This is the difference between what actually happened and what ADP predicts. In this example, 6 RB's should have been taken, 4 actually were, so the difference is 2. 0 WR's should have been taken, but 2 actually were, so the difference is -2. Let's call this difference Y.

[*]Add Y to V, and that is my baseline for each position. For this example, the RB baseline becomes 8 (6+2), WR baseline becomes 0 (2+ -2), QB = 1, and TE = 1.

This is forward looking in that it uses ADP to predict when runs start, so hopefully you can get in before the run. It is also backwards looking, and tries to keep you from coming in at the end of a run. In this example, there was 2 WR's taken before ADP thought they should have gone...based on my ADP, those were reaches. At pick 7, this process tells you that you should not draft the 3rd WR, and there will probably be a glut of RB's taken before my next pick, so compare the top RB on my list to the 8th RB down, and the top QB to the next one down.

Anyhow, I think it's pretty slick.

I do this, too. I explain it basically asA = number of players at each position that are expected to be off the board by my next pick. (This would be your V + W)

B = number of players at each position currently off the board. (This is your X)

A - B = dropoff values for each position.

It works well, as you pointed out, because it corrects for the variance that can occur during a draft - if we assume that the draft overall won't veer too far from a certain pattern, despite some players going earlier or later than expected, then this keeps the dropoff values accurate and helps predict when runs are going to start and end.

This is totally new to me. I LOVE it. If I understand you right, you can use ADP to figure your V value for all your picks before the draft starts, right? I'm not seeing a reason you have to do it on the fly, but I might be missing something.

That's correct. I create a table of cumulative picks ahead of time, based on whatever ADP I've chosen. For example, say I have the 4th pick in a 10-team league, I'd have something like:

Pick	QB	RB	WR	TE1.04	0	3	0	02.07	2	10	4	03.04	3	12	8	04.07	5	16	13	2…

This is my "A" value. I can get the "B" value from Draft Dominator as the draft progresses, and just subtract. So if I'm up at 3.04 I'd expect 8 WRs to be off the board already. If only 5 have actually been taken, I'm going to assume that a run on WRs is about to start. OTOH if 16 RBs are already off the board by 3.04, I might conclude that a run on them is ending and I can wait until my next pick to take one.

 

[kinglochness]

Lots of interesting stuff in this thread. Thanks to all who have contributed. I'm relatively new to a lot of this stuff but love reading/thinking about it. There's a lot to digest here and obviously some smart players posting. Can I ask what is probably a stupid question though...why is the VBD in this application only calculated as guy available at current pick minus guy available at next pick (at the position). I understand it I think, I just don't know why its useful unless you are basically limiting yourself to 2 positions at the 2 picks (i.e. you know you want to go RB/WR in some order in the first 2 rounds, so this would be very useful in deciding which to take 1st and which 2nd). How does it help you decide for example whether you should go WR/WR or RB/RB or whether you should draft a QB in the 3rd or wait until the 6th? Not sure if that question makes sense...Thanks in advance.

I'm not sure it makes sense either. But here goes. First, the whole point of a VBD is to compared values across all positions. So you will know in the 3rd round to take the QB or wait. It sounds like you are trying to anticipate picks throughout the draft (based on ADP or knowledge of other owners in your league) and calculate these values before drafting. Interesting concept, but you would have to be pinpoint accurate on every pick for this to work. If you figure out a way to make this work, I'd be very interested in hearing it.

 

[AcerFC]

 

[moleculo]

I haven't vetted it yet, but here's what I'm working on:

[*]use ADP to figure out how many players at each position are expected to go before I draft next. for example, assume I have pick 7 in a 12 team serpentine draft. Between picks 7 and 17, I might expect 6 RB's, 2 WR's, 1 QB, and 0 TE's. Let's call this # V.

[*]based on the above ADP, determine how many at each position should have already been taken. At pick 7, hypothetically I expect that 6 RB's, 0 WR's, 0 QB's, and 0 TE's should be off the board. Let's call this # W.

[*]count how many players have actually been picked at each position. Hypothetically, let's say 4 RB's and 2 WRs. Let's call this # X.

[*]subtract X from W. This is the difference between what actually happened and what ADP predicts. In this example, 6 RB's should have been taken, 4 actually were, so the difference is 2. 0 WR's should have been taken, but 2 actually were, so the difference is -2. Let's call this difference Y.

[*]Add Y to V, and that is my baseline for each position. For this example, the RB baseline becomes 8 (6+2), WR baseline becomes 0 (2+ -2), QB = 1, and TE = 1.

This is forward looking in that it uses ADP to predict when runs start, so hopefully you can get in before the run. It is also backwards looking, and tries to keep you from coming in at the end of a run. In this example, there was 2 WR's taken before ADP thought they should have gone...based on my ADP, those were reaches. At pick 7, this process tells you that you should not draft the 3rd WR, and there will probably be a glut of RB's taken before my next pick, so compare the top RB on my list to the 8th RB down, and the top QB to the next one down.

Anyhow, I think it's pretty slick.

I do this, too. I explain it basically asA = number of players at each position that are expected to be off the board by my next pick. (This would be your V + W)

B = number of players at each position currently off the board. (This is your X)

A - B = dropoff values for each position.

It works well, as you pointed out, because it corrects for the variance that can occur during a draft - if we assume that the draft overall won't veer too far from a certain pattern, despite some players going earlier or later than expected, then this keeps the dropoff values accurate and helps predict when runs are going to start and end.

This is totally new to me. I LOVE it. If I understand you right, you can use ADP to figure your V value for all your picks before the draft starts, right? I'm not seeing a reason you have to do it on the fly, but I might be missing something.

my process is in an excel spreadsheet, and does basically the same counting method that Ignoratio is doing, except is is making the calculations along the fly. I am trying to get away from having to make any manual calculations during the draft...there's too much other stuff going on, and my math skills tend to degrade the more beer goes in my belly.

 

[moleculo]

Lots of interesting stuff in this thread. Thanks to all who have contributed. I'm relatively new to a lot of this stuff but love reading/thinking about it. There's a lot to digest here and obviously some smart players posting. Can I ask what is probably a stupid question though...why is the VBD in this application only calculated as guy available at current pick minus guy available at next pick (at the position). I understand it I think, I just don't know why its useful unless you are basically limiting yourself to 2 positions at the 2 picks (i.e. you know you want to go RB/WR in some order in the first 2 rounds, so this would be very useful in deciding which to take 1st and which 2nd). How does it help you decide for example whether you should go WR/WR or RB/RB or whether you should draft a QB in the 3rd or wait until the 6th? Not sure if that question makes sense...Thanks in advance.

I'm not sure it makes sense either. But here goes. First, the whole point of a VBD is to compared values across all positions. So you will know in the 3rd round to take the QB or wait. It sounds like you are trying to anticipate picks throughout the draft (based on ADP or knowledge of other owners in your league) and calculate these values before drafting. Interesting concept, but you would have to be pinpoint accurate on every pick for this to work. If you figure out a way to make this work, I'd be very interested in hearing it.

exactly. Projections are useful for comparing players in the same position, but it can be tough to compare across positions. That's where VBD comes in - it's about positional scarcity, and trying to focus on drafting "elite" players, even if you don't necessarily need them to fill your line-up. dDVB is about recalculating value each time.What my process is trying to do is to help me decide who the best choice is, based on who is likely to be there next round. That's it. I'm not considering other teams line-ups, I'm not considering 3,4,5 picks down the road...just one round.