Dvbd (1 Viewer)

[hotboyz]

Here's my situatin in my league i have the #6 pick in the first rd and the #7 in the 2nd round I believe the first 5 picks will be lj,alexander,lt,portis and James The league is 11teams (12 team owner was fired). Going by my vbd numbers The highest rb left on the board (Barber) is only 29 pts higher than the next Rb that I believe will be available when I pick again, but on the other hand my highest qb on the board (P.Manning) is 46 pts higher than the next qb that will be available when my picks come up again. Going by these numbers dvbd is leading me to take Manning is my thought process wrong here??

scoring all td's under 4o yds 6pts. all td's over 40 yds 9pts. 1/25 passing 1/10 rushing/rec 5pt.s for 3oo yds. passing or 100yds, rushing...

 

[BoulderBob]

I like Manning in this spot, especially considering the poor state of the Colts RB unit. Others will probably tell you QB2-6 will be available in the 4-6th rounds, so you should wait.

 

[GregR_2]

Here's my situatin in my league i have the #6 pick in the first rd and the #7 in the 2nd round I believe the first 5 picks will be lj,alexander,lt,portis and James The league is 11teams (12 team owner was fired). Going by my vbd numbers The highest rb left on the board (Barber) is only 29 pts higher than the next Rb that I believe will be available when I pick again, but on the other hand my highest qb on the board (P.Manning) is 46 pts higher than the next qb that will be available when my picks come up again. Going by these numbers dvbd is leading me to take Manning is my thought process wrong here??

You have the process correct, but you really should look further ahead than that. What is going to happen with your 3rd round pick (and even the ones after that) also might change who you should take in round 1.What I'm saying is, does Peyton plus a RB in 2 and 3 score more than a RB in 1 and 2, and a QB in 3. Or what if you went WR or TE in 3... then we need to extend it as many rounds out as necessary to include your QB in the calculation.In short, yes, you're using the right process with DVBD. But really what you should be doing is entire mock drafts trying a different one each time. You'll find the best combination, which is important, but equally as important is that you will learn the types of decisions that you'll be faced with in the draft, and you'll have some experience as to how a pick this round will affect the entire rest of your draft. Because your predictions will never be entirely right as to who will be there, so it's important to know the effect on your team if you end up with a crappy RB2 and have to spend an extra pick in the 7th on another backup RB to feel you have mitigated your risk.

 

[hotboyz]

Here's my situatin in my league i have the #6 pick in the first rd and the #7 in the 2nd round I believe the first 5 picks will be lj,alexander,lt,portis and James The league is 11teams (12 team owner was fired). Going by my vbd numbers The highest rb left on the board (Barber) is only 29 pts higher than the next Rb that I believe will be available when I pick again, but on the other hand my highest qb on the board (P.Manning) is 46 pts higher than the next qb that will be available when my picks come up again. Going by these numbers dvbd is leading me to take Manning is my thought process wrong here??

You have the process correct, but you really should look further ahead than that. What is going to happen with your 3rd round pick (and even the ones after that) also might change who you should take in round 1.What I'm saying is, does Peyton plus a RB in 2 and 3 score more than a RB in 1 and 2, and a QB in 3. Or what if you went WR or TE in 3... then we need to extend it as many rounds out as necessary to include your QB in the calculation.In short, yes, you're using the right process with DVBD. But really what you should be doing is entire mock drafts trying a different one each time. You'll find the best combination, which is important, but equally as important is that you will learn the types of decisions that you'll be faced with in the draft, and you'll have some experience as to how a pick this round will affect the entire rest of your draft. Because your predictions will never be entirely right as to who will be there, so it's important to know the effect on your team if you end up with a crappy RB2 and have to spend an extra pick in the 7th on another backup RB to feel you have mitigated your risk.

But trying to look that far out into the drafft doesn't that just make it harder to figure out what players may be left when it's your turn to pick??

 

[TinHat]

Here's my situatin in my league i have the #6 pick in the first rd and the #7 in the 2nd round I believe the first 5 picks will be lj,alexander,lt,portis and James The league is 11teams (12 team owner was fired). Going by my vbd numbers The highest rb left on the board (Barber) is only 29 pts higher than the next Rb that I believe will be available when I pick again, but on the other hand my highest qb on the board (P.Manning) is 46 pts higher than the next qb that will be available when my picks come up again. Going by these numbers dvbd is leading me to take Manning is my thought process wrong here??

You have the process correct, but you really should look further ahead than that. What is going to happen with your 3rd round pick (and even the ones after that) also might change who you should take in round 1.What I'm saying is, does Peyton plus a RB in 2 and 3 score more than a RB in 1 and 2, and a QB in 3. Or what if you went WR or TE in 3... then we need to extend it as many rounds out as necessary to include your QB in the calculation.In short, yes, you're using the right process with DVBD. But really what you should be doing is entire mock drafts trying a different one each time. You'll find the best combination, which is important, but equally as important is that you will learn the types of decisions that you'll be faced with in the draft, and you'll have some experience as to how a pick this round will affect the entire rest of your draft. Because your predictions will never be entirely right as to who will be there, so it's important to know the effect on your team if you end up with a crappy RB2 and have to spend an extra pick in the 7th on another backup RB to feel you have mitigated your risk.

 

[Chris Smith]

Here's my situatin in my league i have the #6 pick in the first rd and the #7 in the 2nd round I believe the first 5 picks will be lj,alexander,lt,portis and James The league is 11teams (12 team owner was fired). Going by my vbd numbers The highest rb left on the board (Barber) is only 29 pts higher than the next Rb that I believe will be available when I pick again, but on the other hand my highest qb on the board (P.Manning) is 46 pts higher than the next qb that will be available when my picks come up again. Going by these numbers dvbd is leading me to take Manning is my thought process wrong here??

You have the process correct, but you really should look further ahead than that. What is going to happen with your 3rd round pick (and even the ones after that) also might change who you should take in round 1.What I'm saying is, does Peyton plus a RB in 2 and 3 score more than a RB in 1 and 2, and a QB in 3. Or what if you went WR or TE in 3... then we need to extend it as many rounds out as necessary to include your QB in the calculation.In short, yes, you're using the right process with DVBD. But really what you should be doing is entire mock drafts trying a different one each time. You'll find the best combination, which is important, but equally as important is that you will learn the types of decisions that you'll be faced with in the draft, and you'll have some experience as to how a pick this round will affect the entire rest of your draft. Because your predictions will never be entirely right as to who will be there, so it's important to know the effect on your team if you end up with a crappy RB2 and have to spend an extra pick in the 7th on another backup RB to feel you have mitigated your risk.

But trying to look that far out into the drafft doesn't that just make it harder to figure out what players may be left when it's your turn to pick??

That's why you should mock, mock and mock some more (you can use the Draft Dominator for that). Also more so than what players are still available at each draft position, you want a rough idea of how many FP will be there at each draft spot per position, irregardless of who is left for you to draft...If you go QB in round one, you need to play out the different possibility heading into a draft to know your different paths you may go down...Also, you must tweak your draft strategy depending on your first pick... If you go QB in round one, obviously you should ignore that position after that until much later in your draft (obviously this is for start 1 QB leagues). You are taking the quarterback that early in the draft to lock in a starter each and every week so the need for a backup quarterback falls way down the priority list...Running mocks through will enable you to formulate your strategies and which paths you should take after that first pick. You need to be flexible and allow the draft to come to you as well and don't lock onto a player or position...If you do several mocks, any deviance from your practice runs will ultimately be beneficial to you as that means unexpected players are dropping to you later in the draft...*** If you go QB or TE in round one or round two, ignore that position irregardless of perceived value in the upcoming rounds as those positions are very difficult to trade and get value for and instead focus in on stockpiling RB and WR picks...

 

[GregR_2]

...

That's why you should mock, mock and mock some more (you can use the Draft Dominator for that). Also more so than what players are still available at each draft position, you want a rough idea of how many FP will be there at each draft spot per position, irregardless of who is left for you to draft...

If you go QB in round one, you need to play out the different possibility heading into a draft to know your different paths you may go down...

Also, you must tweak your draft strategy depending on your first pick... If you go QB in round one, obviously you should ignore that position after that until much later in your draft (obviously this is for start 1 QB leagues). You are taking the quarterback that early in the draft to lock in a starter each and every week so the need for a backup quarterback falls way down the priority list...

Running mocks through will enable you to formulate your strategies and which paths you should take after that first pick. You need to be flexible and allow the draft to come to you as well and don't lock onto a player or position...

If you do several mocks, any deviance from your practice runs will ultimately be beneficial to you as that means unexpected players are dropping to you later in the draft...

*** If you go QB or TE in round one or round two, ignore that position irregardless of perceived value in the upcoming rounds as those positions are very difficult to trade and get value for and instead focus in on stockpiling RB and WR picks...

Great reply by Chris. I thought I'd highlight this one part in particular. You want to do your mock the way you feel most confident the draft will play out, but when in any doubt, err on the side of taking the player you think that owner should. That way you're putting together as much of a worst case of who will be available to you as possible. And by having done multiple mocks with different paths through the draft, if you thought you would take a WR in round 5 but instead see another position slip at great value to you there, you'll have already learned what the rest of your draft is likely to look like if you take advantage of that value player.

 

[John Mamula]

Here's my situatin in my league i have the #6 pick in the first rd and the #7 in the 2nd round I believe the first 5 picks will be lj,alexander,lt,portis and James The league is 11teams (12 team owner was fired). Going by my vbd numbers The highest rb left on the board (Barber) is only 29 pts higher than the next Rb that I believe will be available when I pick again, but on the other hand my highest qb on the board (P.Manning) is 46 pts higher than the next qb that will be available when my picks come up again. Going by these numbers dvbd is leading me to take Manning is my thought process wrong here??scoring all td's under 4o yds 6pts. all td's over 40 yds 9pts. 1/25 passing 1/10 rushing/rec 5pt.s for 3oo yds. passing or 100yds, rushing...

This is the correct interpretation of DVBD.Whether you draft blindly to it or take a different approach that thinks of the entire draft and what value you can get in rounds past round n and round n+1 is up to you...

 

[John Mamula]

Here's my situatin in my league i have the #6 pick in the first rd and the #7 in the 2nd round I believe the first 5 picks will be lj,alexander,lt,portis and James The league is 11teams (12 team owner was fired). Going by my vbd numbers The highest rb left on the board (Barber) is only 29 pts higher than the next Rb that I believe will be available when I pick again, but on the other hand my highest qb on the board (P.Manning) is 46 pts higher than the next qb that will be available when my picks come up again. Going by these numbers dvbd is leading me to take Manning is my thought process wrong here??

You have the process correct, but you really should look further ahead than that. What is going to happen with your 3rd round pick (and even the ones after that) also might change who you should take in round 1.What I'm saying is, does Peyton plus a RB in 2 and 3 score more than a RB in 1 and 2, and a QB in 3. Or what if you went WR or TE in 3... then we need to extend it as many rounds out as necessary to include your QB in the calculation.In short, yes, you're using the right process with DVBD. But really what you should be doing is entire mock drafts trying a different one each time. You'll find the best combination, which is important, but equally as important is that you will learn the types of decisions that you'll be faced with in the draft, and you'll have some experience as to how a pick this round will affect the entire rest of your draft. Because your predictions will never be entirely right as to who will be there, so it's important to know the effect on your team if you end up with a crappy RB2 and have to spend an extra pick in the 7th on another backup RB to feel you have mitigated your risk.

But trying to look that far out into the drafft doesn't that just make it harder to figure out what players may be left when it's your turn to pick??

Of course. Which is where ADP comes into play. Essentially, you should use DVBD before the actual draft to determine the best time to take a position in each round (or alternative positions) and when the draft occurs do not use the quantitative #s.You need to be quantitative before the draft and qualitative during the draft.