Iwannabeacowboybaby! said:
My guess is that his receptions and yardage may be close to the same but his TD total will go down some from the 2010-11 season next season.
There were 26 other times that a WR had 15 receiving TD in a season. Sterling Sharpe had 18 one year but then had to retire. Of the other 25, only Jerry Rice had more TD the following season (jumping from 15 in 1986 to 22 in 1987). The next highest total was 13.On average, the TD total fell from 16.5 to 9.5. Six players dropped to 4 TD or fewer. If you factor out the Rice uber season, the average dips to a shade under 9 TD.If what you say were to happen (similar numbers but say 9 TD), his ranking last year would have slipped from WR2 to T-WR8. However, I am equally concerned that his ypr last year was 3.3 yards higher than his career average over his first 3 seasons. He had 7 TD of 35+ yards last year including a 75 yarder. In his first 3 seasons, I believe he only had 5 plays of 35 yards (in 43 games).On a side note, I did not realize he was shutout against the Ravens in the playoffs. Including that game, Bowe has averaged 4.25 receptions a game with Cassel at QB. If we looked at the baseline for a 16-game season with all the Cassel games, we'd be looking at: 68-1001-11.If I were to guess at this point, I would think his receptions would be higher, his ypr would be lower, and his TD total would be lower, so maybe 80-1040-9. Last year, that would have ranked T-WR15.