Dynasty 1-10 RB Rankings (1 Viewer)

[EBF]

1. LaDainian Tomlinson - He's a consistent scorer who should have several years left in the tank. The only concern with him is his huge workload, which could lead to an early breakdown. 2. Kevin Jones - He was one of the most productive backs in the league in the second half of the season and should only get better. 3. Deuce McAllister - Deuce had a down year, but he's a consistent scorer with fresh legs. 4. Willis McGahee - I love McGahee's talent and his situation. The only reason he isn't #3 on this list is that I'm wary of backs who have suffered serious knee injuries. 5. Edgerrin James - He has some wear and tear on his body, but he's still fairly young and he has the all around talent needed to excel in any system. 6. Jamal Lewis - His style screams short career, but then again, so does Corey Dillon's and look what he's been able to do. 7. Shaun Alexander - I've never liked this guy, but at this point it's hard for me to ignore the numbers he's putting up. 8. Clinton Portis - The poor YPC is a serious concern, but if Washington can actually get some talent at QB and OL then Portis should bounce back reasonably well. 9. Julius Jones - He may be a little overrated here, but he's a versatile back who has flashed great skills. 10. Chris Brown - His injuries are troubling, but it's hard to question his productivity. He gets the nod over Steven Jackson for this spot because he doesn't have to deal with a RBBC in the short term and he's very similar to Jackson in terms of age/mileage. The first few spots on this list were easy for me, but it became difficult after #5. You could definitely make a good case for someone like Ahman Green or Steven Jackson being in the top ten.

 

[ILoveMyLions]

Dynasty, like re-draft or keeper, is about winning this year as well as down the road.Focusing too much on "what could be" and forgeting about "what is" will leave you out of the championship game everytime. You need the right balance of youth and experience to win in this format.With that said:1. LT22. Edge3. McAllister4. A. Green5. J. Lewis6. Martin7. Holmes8. Barber9. McGahee10. K. JonesEach of these guys has the right opportunity plus the talent to succeed in 2005. The old guys, Martin & Holmes, have proved over & over that they true players, they can produce effective numbers, and they have every intention of playing next year and even beyond. As long as they produce top 10 numbers, they deserve top 10 consideration.

No disrespect nightshift, but how can you rank Holmes and Martin in the top 7?I read your other post commenting on it, but I just don't see it. Two guys who may be going into their last year in the first round of a draft doesn't make sense. Would you draft them in the first round or early second of a new dynasty draft? To me, that's what a top 7 back would be. So what you are saying is you'd rather have Curtis Martin or Priest Holmes over Willis McGahee or Kevin Jones? They are ten years apart and should post similar numbers nest season!IMO, you must look at least three years in advance and rank accordingly.

 

[Tick]

EBF = EastBayFunk?Also, Drugrunner, can you link back to the main thread from here? Makes it easier to jump around.

 

[EBF]

EBF = EastBayFunk?

Yes. I changed my name.

 

[Family Matters]

I'm sure many will disagree but my thinking is 3-5 years and some of these guys won't be studs in the NFL then such as McAllister.1. LT2. Larry Johnson-I've seen what he can do and if he's in KC he will likely be #1. I just can't put above LT.3. McGahee-To do what he's done this year in a bad offense and first year back from his recovery, I'd say the potential is very high.4. Alexander-proven stud with 3 years left.5. Jackson-Has show the talent now just needs the opportunity which is coming.6. James-Proven stud with 3 years left.7. K. Jones- Once Detroit makes him the focus of the offense he will thrive.8. Bell-Out on a limb with this due to his injury issues. If he is healthy and if he stays with Denver (and that's a real wildcard) he will produce top 10 easy.9. J. Jones-Dallas will rely on him and they are not afraid to run the ball.10. Green-Maybe down a bit but still a quality back and is involved in the passing game.

 

[Finatic]

EBF = EastBayFunk?

Yes. I changed my name.

I miss the old avatar EBF

 

[EBF]

Yea, they seem to have put some new restrictions on avatar size. I couldn't get the old one to look right, so I had to settle for this.

 

[Burning Sensation]

For anyone doing a dynasty draft soon, taking one of the big 3 QB's in the first and waiting on RB's is the way to go. There are so many good young RB's out there, there will be plenty to go around in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounds.

Wow, I don't know that I can entirely disagree, Manning had a heck of a year, but I think I would be hard pressed to Take Manning at 1.3, and then take the best RB available with the 20th or so pick. I'd look to trade down.

I guess this would depend on league scoring and rules, but i watched teams with decent teams have great success based almost solely on the production of Manning, Mcnabb and Culpepper. I also am a RB guy, but lets assume you cant trade down, (which i do agree would be a good idea) who would you pick over Culpepper at 1.2(assuming Tomlinson went 1.1)?

 

[Burning Sensation]

Many refused to draft Holmes & Faulk because of this criteris and missed out what will likley be FF production rarely seen again.

I think the guys who did NOTdraft Faulk in a dynasty because he was 30 made the right choice.

 

[Family Matters]

Many refused to draft Holmes & Faulk because of this criteris and missed out what will likley be FF production rarely seen again.

I think the guys who did NOTdraft Faulk in a dynasty because he was 30 made the right choice.

At 30 yes but what about 28? That is considered old for a RB who's avg carreer is 4 yrs. And Holmes at 30 was pretty decent if I recall.

 

[Synthesizer]

Question for the guys ranking Larry Johnson in their current top 5 dynasty RB rankings (still can't believe I'm actually typing that)......Since this is your current list, this means that you would trade him straight-up for anyone ranked below him on your list, correct? Wow.

 

[Tick]

I'm sure many will disagree but my thinking is 3-5 years and some of these guys won't be studs in the NFL then such as McAllister.

Why won't McAllister be a stud in 3-5 years?It's not age, so I'm trying to figure out what you're saying.

 

[-OZ-]

I'm sure many will disagree but my thinking is 3-5 years and some of these guys won't be studs in the NFL then such as McAllister.

Why won't McAllister be a stud in 3-5 years?It's not age, so I'm trying to figure out what you're saying.

I'm not sure why Deuce was picked out, IMO he's in the same line as Edge and Ahman, but the statement that some of these won't be elite in 3-5 years is pretty safe. (now pick which ones, maybe it will be Deuce who's out, maybe it's McGahee...)

 

[Family Matters]

I'm sure many will disagree but my thinking is 3-5 years and some of these guys won't be studs in the NFL then such as McAllister.

Why won't McAllister be a stud in 3-5 years?It's not age, so I'm trying to figure out what you're saying.

He's 26 this past Dec. He'll be 27 before he finishes next year. I doubt he'll be a top 10 for more than 1-2 more years.

 

[ILUVBEER99]

Yea, they seem to have put some new restrictions on avatar size. I couldn't get the old one to look right, so I had to settle for this.

Just curious, did something happen to your other login?

 

[valhallan]

I'm sure many will disagree but my thinking is 3-5 years and some of these guys won't be studs in the NFL then such as McAllister.

Why won't McAllister be a stud in 3-5 years?It's not age, so I'm trying to figure out what you're saying.

He's 26 this past Dec. He'll be 27 before he finishes next year. I doubt he'll be a top 10 for more than 1-2 more years.

Yes, but why? His running style, situation, talent..?And in the spirit of full disclosure, did you own him this year?

 

[zamboni]

2. Larry Johnson-I've seen what he can do and if he's in KC he will likely be #1. I just can't put above LT.

Wow, even as a Johnson owner myself, I can't see that. Too much team uncertainty after Holmes presumably leaves after next year.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Many refused to draft Holmes & Faulk because of this criteris and missed out what will likley be FF production rarely seen again.

I think the guys who did NOTdraft Faulk in a dynasty because he was 30 made the right choice.

At 30 yes but what about 28? That is considered old for a RB who's avg carreer is 4 yrs. And Holmes at 30 was pretty decent if I recall.

At 28, Faulk was coming off one of the greatest seasons ever by a RB, i dont think anyone would argue picking him with a top 3 pick in any kind of league. I and many other did not draft Faulk in dynasties leagues when he was 30, the same reason i wont draft Martn or Holmes if i were drafting a dynasty team today. Yes, Martin and?or Holmes could be top 5 backs next year, but if i am drafting a RB in the first round of a dynasty, does that make him a good pick? of course not, i would rather take my "chance on a guy like Mcgahee who has a similar shot at putting numbers just as good, but has will give me 7-8 more years than Martin or Holmes.

 

[Burning Sensation]

I'm sure many will disagree but my thinking is 3-5 years and some of these guys won't be studs in the NFL then such as McAllister.

Why won't McAllister be a stud in 3-5 years?It's not age, so I'm trying to figure out what you're saying.

He's 26 this past Dec. He'll be 27 before he finishes next year. I doubt he'll be a top 10 for more than 1-2 more years.

Are you not the same guy who has Martin in your top 10?

 

[Burning Sensation]

2. Larry Johnson-I've seen what he can do and if he's in KC he will likely be #1. I just can't put above LT.

Wow, even as a Johnson owner myself, I can't see that. Too much team uncertainty after Holmes presumably leaves after next year.

I too am a Johnson owner(spent the 1.1 rookie pick on him 2 years ago) and although he single handedly won me my Z5 championship this year, there is no way you can put him at #2, at least not as long as Priest is still in the picture.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

I'm sure many will disagree but my thinking is 3-5 years and some of these guys won't be studs in the NFL then such as McAllister.

Why won't McAllister be a stud in 3-5 years?It's not age, so I'm trying to figure out what you're saying.

He's 26 this past Dec. He'll be 27 before he finishes next year. I doubt he'll be a top 10 for more than 1-2 more years.

Have you looked at the rushing leaders this year at all?2004Martin - 31Alexander - 27Dillon -30Now at the end of your 2 years, McAllister will have JUST TURNED 28 and you think that's as long as he could be in the top 10?Or if you think last year was just an abberation, how bout the fact that in the previous 4 years (2000-2003), a guy OLDER than 28 was the #1 FF back (Priest in 2002, 2003 and Faulk in 2000, 2001)Someone must have forgotten to tell Faulk, Tiki, Priest, Martin, Dillon, etc that you can't have good fantasy years at age 28+.

 

[Bloom]

2. Larry Johnson-I've seen what he can do and if he's in KC he will likely be #1. I just can't put above LT.

Wow, even as a Johnson owner myself, I can't see that. Too much team uncertainty after Holmes presumably leaves after next year.

I too am a Johnson owner(spent the 1.1 rookie pick on him 2 years ago) and although he single handedly won me my Z5 championship this year, there is no way you can put him at #2, at least not as long as Priest is still in the picture.

IF LJ inherits the KC RB role in 06, he's the top fantasy RB. he had no less than 24 points in each of his last 5 games this year, and 2 of those saw blaylock split the touches with him. i didnt rank him 2nd, but if you believe that there is no uncertainty in eventuality of LJ getting the job (and blaylock walking this offseason may reduce that uncertainty greatly), then 2nd is not insane. you're looking at a guy who could have a faulk-like run atop FF - not that he's a good as faulk, just that he's the best offensive system for RB scoring, and he seems like a perfect fit in it - yahtzee!

 

[Slash]

IF LJ inherits the KC RB role in 06, he's the top fantasy RB. he had no less than 24 points in each of his last 5 games this year, and 2 of those saw blaylock split the touches with him. i didnt rank him 2nd, but if you believe that there is no uncertainty in eventuality of LJ getting the job (and blaylock walking this offseason may reduce that uncertainty greatly), then 2nd is not insane. you're looking at a guy who could have a faulk-like run atop FF - not that he's a good as faulk, just that he's the best offensive system for RB scoring, and he seems like a perfect fit in it - yahtzee!

A few small problems, LJ will probably never inherit the same situation Priest Holmes has benefited from. **** Vermeil is giving every indication that after the 2005 season he will be retiring. Along with Vermeil will go a good portion of his staff to other teams, etc. Also, the KC O-line is getting up there in age and won't be the best O-line in the NFL for too much longer. I see alot of turmoil in LJ's future in KC and I'm not as rosy on his future as all of you that think he'll be a fanatsy god.Edit to add: I compare Larry Johnson's situation to that of Kevan Barlow's a few years ago. By the time Kevan Barlow finally became the featured back, the team around him had gone through a coaching change and deteriorated to the point where Barlow could no longer be effective. By the time Larry Johnson becomes the featured back, there will be a coaching change and the KC O-line will only be that much older, not to mention there could be a QB change in KC coming up in the next two years as well.

 

[Burning Sensation]

2. Larry Johnson-I've seen what he can do and if he's in KC he will likely be #1. I just can't put above LT.

Wow, even as a Johnson owner myself, I can't see that. Too much team uncertainty after Holmes presumably leaves after next year.

I too am a Johnson owner(spent the 1.1 rookie pick on him 2 years ago) and although he single handedly won me my Z5 championship this year, there is no way you can put him at #2, at least not as long as Priest is still in the picture.

IF LJ inherits the KC RB role in 06, he's the top fantasy RB. he had no less than 24 points in each of his last 5 games this year, and 2 of those saw blaylock split the touches with him. i didnt rank him 2nd, but if you believe that there is no uncertainty in eventuality of LJ getting the job (and blaylock walking this offseason may reduce that uncertainty greatly), then 2nd is not insane. you're looking at a guy who could have a faulk-like run atop FF - not that he's a good as faulk, just that he's the best offensive system for RB scoring, and he seems like a perfect fit in it - yahtzee!

One more important factor i think alot of people dismiss in dynasty is taking "system" RB's too high. Right now it seems that any RB that runs in KC could be a 1500 yard 20 TD back, but in a dynasty, system RB's are something you dont want to depend on. Im not saying LJ is not talented, but would he really be in anyones top 10 if he played for Miami or Arizona? Last year there were plenty of Portis owners who thought he wouldnt miss a beat in Washington, yet his numbers dropped drastically, while 3 different backs combined for monster numbers in Denver. This is also the reason i have guys like Kevin and Julius Jones and Willis Mcgahee ranked so high. It seems that the "system" they are currently in can only improve, or at worse stay the same. This issue obviously doesnt factor into redraft, but for those of you leaving 30 year olds of your rankings at least have to take "system" RB's into account.

 

[Bloom]

IF LJ inherits the KC RB role in 06, he's the top fantasy RB. he had no less than 24 points in each of his last 5 games this year, and 2 of those saw blaylock split the touches with him. i didnt rank him 2nd, but if you believe that there is no uncertainty in eventuality of LJ getting the job (and blaylock walking this offseason may reduce that uncertainty greatly), then 2nd is not insane. you're looking at a guy who could have a faulk-like run atop FF - not that he's a good as faulk, just that he's the best offensive system for RB scoring, and he seems like a perfect fit in it - yahtzee!

A few small problems, LJ will probably never inherit the same situation Priest Holmes has benefited from. **** Vermeil is giving every indication that after the 2005 season he will be retiring. Along with Vermeil will go a good portion of his staff to other teams, etc. Also, the KC O-line is getting up there in age and won't be the best O-line in the NFL for too much longer. I see alot of turmoil in LJ's future in KC and I'm not as rosy on his future as all of you that think he'll be a fanatsy god.Edit to add: I compare Larry Johnson's situation to that of Kevan Barlow's a few years ago. By the time Kevan Barlow finally became the featured back, the team around him had gone through a coaching change and deteriorated to the point where Barlow could no longer be effective. By the time Larry Johnson becomes the featured back, there will be a coaching change and the KC O-line will only be that much older, not to mention there could be a QB change in KC coming up in the next two years as well.

that's a very compelling comeback - i guess the biggest part of LJ's dynasty value is what kind of team you see KC becoming after vermeil leaves.any other RBs who are greatly affected by their team sticking with the same system? i know a lot of people are downgrading thomas jones because their rb-heavy offensive coordinator got fired.

 

[Bloom]

One more important factor i think alot of people dismiss in dynasty is taking "system" RB's too high. Right now it seems that any RB that runs in KC could be a 1500 yard 20 TD back, but in a dynasty, system RB's are something you dont want to depend on. Im not saying LJ is not talented, but would he really be in anyones top 10 if he played for Miami or Arizona? Last year there were plenty of Portis owners who thought he wouldnt miss a beat in Washington, yet his numbers dropped drastically, while 3 different backs combined for monster numbers in Denver. This is also the reason i have guys like Kevin and Julius Jones and Willis Mcgahee ranked so high. It seems that the "system" they are currently in can only improve, or at worse stay the same. This issue obviously doesnt factor into redraft, but for those of you leaving 30 year olds of your rankings at least have to take "system" RB's into account.

System RBs are definitely boom/bust types, and not for the risk averse, but they give you a shot a the superstud RB who can cover up deficiencies elsewhere on your team, as opposed to the stud, who can nullify the other teams stud. all depends on how you like to "invest" - more speculative or more secure.edit: ranking priest real high after his performance in 01 would have been based mainly on the system, and it worked out. then on the other hand, you have the denver RB situation, where no one can hold the job for more than 1 year - very risky, but a huge payoff.

 

[-OZ-]

IF LJ inherits the KC RB role in 06, he's the top fantasy RB. he had no less than 24 points in each of his last 5 games this year, and 2 of those saw blaylock split the touches with him. i didnt rank him 2nd, but if you believe that there is no uncertainty in eventuality of LJ getting the job (and blaylock walking this offseason may reduce that uncertainty greatly), then 2nd is not insane. you're looking at a guy who could have a faulk-like run atop FF - not that he's a good as faulk, just that he's the best offensive system for RB scoring, and he seems like a perfect fit in it - yahtzee!

A few small problems, LJ will probably never inherit the same situation Priest Holmes has benefited from. **** Vermeil is giving every indication that after the 2005 season he will be retiring. Along with Vermeil will go a good portion of his staff to other teams, etc. Also, the KC O-line is getting up there in age and won't be the best O-line in the NFL for too much longer. I see alot of turmoil in LJ's future in KC and I'm not as rosy on his future as all of you that think he'll be a fanatsy god.Edit to add: I compare Larry Johnson's situation to that of Kevan Barlow's a few years ago. By the time Kevan Barlow finally became the featured back, the team around him had gone through a coaching change and deteriorated to the point where Barlow could no longer be effective. By the time Larry Johnson becomes the featured back, there will be a coaching change and the KC O-line will only be that much older, not to mention there could be a QB change in KC coming up in the next two years as well.

that's a very compelling comeback - i guess the biggest part of LJ's dynasty value is what kind of team you see KC becoming after vermeil leaves.any other RBs who are greatly affected by their team sticking with the same system? i know a lot of people are downgrading thomas jones because their rb-heavy offensive coordinator got fired.

You might want to add the fact that Roaf and Shields are getting old, I'm not sure if they will play when LJ is the lead back (assuming he ever is).

 

[Family Matters]

I'm sure many will disagree but my thinking is 3-5 years and some of these guys won't be studs in the NFL then such as McAllister.

Why won't McAllister be a stud in 3-5 years?It's not age, so I'm trying to figure out what you're saying.

He's 26 this past Dec. He'll be 27 before he finishes next year. I doubt he'll be a top 10 for more than 1-2 more years.

Have you looked at the rushing leaders this year at all?2004Martin - 31Alexander - 27Dillon -30Now at the end of your 2 years, McAllister will have JUST TURNED 28 and you think that's as long as he could be in the top 10?Or if you think last year was just an abberation, how bout the fact that in the previous 4 years (2000-2003), a guy OLDER than 28 was the #1 FF back (Priest in 2002, 2003 and Faulk in 2000, 2001)Someone must have forgotten to tell Faulk, Tiki, Priest, Martin, Dillon, etc that you can't have good fantasy years at age 28+.

The point is I do not see him top 10. He may be good, maybe even 11 just not top 10.

 

[Family Matters]

I'm sure many will disagree but my thinking is 3-5 years and some of these guys won't be studs in the NFL then such as McAllister.

Why won't McAllister be a stud in 3-5 years?It's not age, so I'm trying to figure out what you're saying.

He's 26 this past Dec. He'll be 27 before he finishes next year. I doubt he'll be a top 10 for more than 1-2 more years.

Yes, but why? His running style, situation, talent..?And in the spirit of full disclosure, did you own him this year?

Haven't owned him for 2 years now. I like him just so not think he's top 10 dynasty. Maybe top 11 but not top 10.

 

[Family Matters]

Many refused to draft Holmes & Faulk because of this criteris and missed out what will likley be FF production rarely seen again.

I think the guys who did NOTdraft Faulk in a dynasty because he was 30 made the right choice.

At 30 yes but what about 28? That is considered old for a RB who's avg carreer is 4 yrs. And Holmes at 30 was pretty decent if I recall.

At 28, Faulk was coming off one of the greatest seasons ever by a RB, i dont think anyone would argue picking him with a top 3 pick in any kind of league. I and many other did not draft Faulk in dynasties leagues when he was 30, the same reason i wont draft Martn or Holmes if i were drafting a dynasty team today. Yes, Martin and?or Holmes could be top 5 backs next year, but if i am drafting a RB in the first round of a dynasty, does that make him a good pick? of course not, i would rather take my "chance on a guy like Mcgahee who has a similar shot at putting numbers just as good, but has will give me 7-8 more years than Martin or Holmes.

Sorry, but McAllister is no Faulk. He's good just not that good.

 

[Family Matters]

I'm sure many will disagree but my thinking is 3-5 years and some of these guys won't be studs in the NFL then such as McAllister.

Why won't McAllister be a stud in 3-5 years?It's not age, so I'm trying to figure out what you're saying.

He's 26 this past Dec. He'll be 27 before he finishes next year. I doubt he'll be a top 10 for more than 1-2 more years.

Are you not the same guy who has Martin in your top 10?

 

[valhallan]

I'm sure many will disagree but my thinking is 3-5 years and some of these guys won't be studs in the NFL then such as McAllister.

Why won't McAllister be a stud in 3-5 years?It's not age, so I'm trying to figure out what you're saying.

He's 26 this past Dec. He'll be 27 before he finishes next year. I doubt he'll be a top 10 for more than 1-2 more years.

Yes, but why? His running style, situation, talent..?And in the spirit of full disclosure, did you own him this year?

Haven't owned him for 2 years now. I like him just so not think he's top 10 dynasty. Maybe top 11 but not top 10.

You're not providing any reasons for your opinion. I'm starting to think this is a really bad trip.

 

[Family Matters]

2. Larry Johnson-I've seen what he can do and if he's in KC he will likely be #1. I just can't put above LT.

Wow, even as a Johnson owner myself, I can't see that. Too much team uncertainty after Holmes presumably leaves after next year.

I too am a Johnson owner(spent the 1.1 rookie pick on him 2 years ago) and although he single handedly won me my Z5 championship this year, there is no way you can put him at #2, at least not as long as Priest is still in the picture.

I thought this was a dynasty discussion. Assumming Holmes retires after next year I can see him #2. Look past next year and what do you see?

 

[Holy Schneikes]

I'm sure many will disagree but my thinking is 3-5 years and some of these guys won't be studs in the NFL then such as McAllister.

Why won't McAllister be a stud in 3-5 years?It's not age, so I'm trying to figure out what you're saying.

He's 26 this past Dec. He'll be 27 before he finishes next year. I doubt he'll be a top 10 for more than 1-2 more years.

Have you looked at the rushing leaders this year at all?2004Martin - 31Alexander - 27Dillon -30Now at the end of your 2 years, McAllister will have JUST TURNED 28 and you think that's as long as he could be in the top 10?Or if you think last year was just an abberation, how bout the fact that in the previous 4 years (2000-2003), a guy OLDER than 28 was the #1 FF back (Priest in 2002, 2003 and Faulk in 2000, 2001)Someone must have forgotten to tell Faulk, Tiki, Priest, Martin, Dillon, etc that you can't have good fantasy years at age 28+.

The point is I do not see him top 10. He may be good, maybe even 11 just not top 10.

Well that's interesting info, but it's not at all the point you were making. In fact it looked like the point you were making included the opposite - that he was a top 10 talent, but too old to put him in the top 10.If it was all about talent etc., why the big schpiel on "only 1-2 years in the top 10"?Seems to me like a giant backpedal.

 

[Family Matters]

I'm sure many will disagree but my thinking is 3-5 years and some of these guys won't be studs in the NFL then such as McAllister.

Why won't McAllister be a stud in 3-5 years?It's not age, so I'm trying to figure out what you're saying.

He's 26 this past Dec. He'll be 27 before he finishes next year. I doubt he'll be a top 10 for more than 1-2 more years.

Have you looked at the rushing leaders this year at all?2004Martin - 31Alexander - 27Dillon -30Now at the end of your 2 years, McAllister will have JUST TURNED 28 and you think that's as long as he could be in the top 10?Or if you think last year was just an abberation, how bout the fact that in the previous 4 years (2000-2003), a guy OLDER than 28 was the #1 FF back (Priest in 2002, 2003 and Faulk in 2000, 2001)Someone must have forgotten to tell Faulk, Tiki, Priest, Martin, Dillon, etc that you can't have good fantasy years at age 28+.

We're talking fantasy points and dynasty. McAllister is no Faulk or Holmes. And for every 30+ guy they had a heck of track record before then and just kept going. McAllister is having a tough time cracking top 10 now, it won't get any easier. Just ask all those guys you mentioned. Also, it's a rare group that have achieved the past 30 production. This guy is good but he's not in their class.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Many refused to draft Holmes & Faulk because of this criteris and missed out what will likley be FF production rarely seen again.

I think the guys who did NOTdraft Faulk in a dynasty because he was 30 made the right choice.

At 30 yes but what about 28? That is considered old for a RB who's avg carreer is 4 yrs. And Holmes at 30 was pretty decent if I recall.

At 28, Faulk was coming off one of the greatest seasons ever by a RB, i dont think anyone would argue picking him with a top 3 pick in any kind of league. I and many other did not draft Faulk in dynasties leagues when he was 30, the same reason i wont draft Martn or Holmes if i were drafting a dynasty team today. Yes, Martin and?or Holmes could be top 5 backs next year, but if i am drafting a RB in the first round of a dynasty, does that make him a good pick? of course not, i would rather take my "chance on a guy like Mcgahee who has a similar shot at putting numbers just as good, but has will give me 7-8 more years than Martin or Holmes.

Sorry, but McAllister is no Faulk. He's good just not that good.

Who said he was, as a matter of fact, where did Mcallisters name even come up in this discussion?

 

[Burning Sensation]

I'm sure many will disagree but my thinking is 3-5 years and some of these guys won't be studs in the NFL then such as McAllister.

Why won't McAllister be a stud in 3-5 years?It's not age, so I'm trying to figure out what you're saying.

He's 26 this past Dec. He'll be 27 before he finishes next year. I doubt he'll be a top 10 for more than 1-2 more years.

Are you not the same guy who has Martin in your top 10?

sorry, wrong guy.

 

[EBF]

Yea, they seem to have put some new restrictions on avatar size. I couldn't get the old one to look right, so I had to settle for this.

Just curious, did something happen to your other login?

Nope. I just decided to change the name.

 

[Family Matters]

2. Larry Johnson-I've seen what he can do and if he's in KC he will likely be #1. I just can't put above LT.

Wow, even as a Johnson owner myself, I can't see that. Too much team uncertainty after Holmes presumably leaves after next year.

I too am a Johnson owner(spent the 1.1 rookie pick on him 2 years ago) and although he single handedly won me my Z5 championship this year, there is no way you can put him at #2, at least not as long as Priest is still in the picture.

IF LJ inherits the KC RB role in 06, he's the top fantasy RB. he had no less than 24 points in each of his last 5 games this year, and 2 of those saw blaylock split the touches with him. i didnt rank him 2nd, but if you believe that there is no uncertainty in eventuality of LJ getting the job (and blaylock walking this offseason may reduce that uncertainty greatly), then 2nd is not insane. you're looking at a guy who could have a faulk-like run atop FF - not that he's a good as faulk, just that he's the best offensive system for RB scoring, and he seems like a perfect fit in it - yahtzee!

One more important factor i think alot of people dismiss in dynasty is taking "system" RB's too high. Right now it seems that any RB that runs in KC could be a 1500 yard 20 TD back, but in a dynasty, system RB's are something you dont want to depend on. Im not saying LJ is not talented, but would he really be in anyones top 10 if he played for Miami or Arizona? Last year there were plenty of Portis owners who thought he wouldnt miss a beat in Washington, yet his numbers dropped drastically, while 3 different backs combined for monster numbers in Denver. This is also the reason i have guys like Kevin and Julius Jones and Willis Mcgahee ranked so high. It seems that the "system" they are currently in can only improve, or at worse stay the same. This issue obviously doesnt factor into redraft, but for those of you leaving 30 year olds of your rankings at least have to take "system" RB's into account.

You do make a great point. But remember, if you are drafting today, dynasty, you have to go with what you know. Any team's situation could change next year or the year after but don't be afraid to go after a good RB in a good situation. Take KC, do you really think a new coach is going to stop running the ball? It's every coaches dream to do what they do. I'd gamble on them before I would Denver.

 

[Burning Sensation]

2. Larry Johnson-I've seen what he can do and if he's in KC he will likely be #1. I just can't put above LT.

Wow, even as a Johnson owner myself, I can't see that. Too much team uncertainty after Holmes presumably leaves after next year.

I too am a Johnson owner(spent the 1.1 rookie pick on him 2 years ago) and although he single handedly won me my Z5 championship this year, there is no way you can put him at #2, at least not as long as Priest is still in the picture.

I thought this was a dynasty discussion. Assumming Holmes retires after next year I can see him #2. Look past next year and what do you see?

With an aging Oline, and Vermeil probably gone then, i see a potential for a system breakdown, which i believe is mostly responsible for LJ, Holmes, and Blaylocks production over the last 4 years.

 

[EBF]

Regarding Larry Johnson, I don't see nearly as much reason for excitement as some people do. I actually drafted him last year in a dynasty league and I do have a vested interest in his success, but I think his stretch run production was more fluke than anything else. He's ok, but when I watch him I don't see a great back destined for perennial top 5 status.

 

[Family Matters]

I'm sure many will disagree but my thinking is 3-5 years and some of these guys won't be studs in the NFL then such as McAllister.

Why won't McAllister be a stud in 3-5 years?It's not age, so I'm trying to figure out what you're saying.

He's 26 this past Dec. He'll be 27 before he finishes next year. I doubt he'll be a top 10 for more than 1-2 more years.

Yes, but why? His running style, situation, talent..?And in the spirit of full disclosure, did you own him this year?

Haven't owned him for 2 years now. I like him just so not think he's top 10 dynasty. Maybe top 11 but not top 10.

You're not providing any reasons for your opinion. I'm starting to think this is a really bad trip.

Maybe if you read my posts closer you wouldn't respond with this. My reasons are stated and fish all you want. Getting any bites?Finishing #21 in my league this year doesn't do anything to support he'll be TOP 10 DYNASTY. And he isn't getting any younger. Again, he's good but I do not see him top 10 in a dynasty. If you do that's fine. You can have him. I'll stick with my list until I have something better to go on.

 

[Family Matters]

2. Larry Johnson-I've seen what he can do and if he's in KC he will likely be #1. I just can't put above LT.

Wow, even as a Johnson owner myself, I can't see that. Too much team uncertainty after Holmes presumably leaves after next year.

I too am a Johnson owner(spent the 1.1 rookie pick on him 2 years ago) and although he single handedly won me my Z5 championship this year, there is no way you can put him at #2, at least not as long as Priest is still in the picture.

I thought this was a dynasty discussion. Assumming Holmes retires after next year I can see him #2. Look past next year and what do you see?

With an aging Oline, and Vermeil probably gone then, i see a potential for a system breakdown, which i believe is mostly responsible for LJ, Holmes, and Blaylocks production over the last 4 years.

Check the KC history. They've had a great deal of RB success over the years.

 

[Burning Sensation]

2. Larry Johnson-I've seen what he can do and if he's in KC he will likely be #1. I just can't put above LT.

Wow, even as a Johnson owner myself, I can't see that. Too much team uncertainty after Holmes presumably leaves after next year.

I too am a Johnson owner(spent the 1.1 rookie pick on him 2 years ago) and although he single handedly won me my Z5 championship this year, there is no way you can put him at #2, at least not as long as Priest is still in the picture.

I thought this was a dynasty discussion. Assumming Holmes retires after next year I can see him #2. Look past next year and what do you see?

With an aging Oline, and Vermeil probably gone then, i see a potential for a system breakdown, which i believe is mostly responsible for LJ, Holmes, and Blaylocks production over the last 4 years.

Check the KC history. They've had a great deal of RB success over the years.

They have? When was the last time they had a top 3 fantasy RB?(besides of course over the last 3 years)All im saying is i would rather go with a young guy that is producing good numbers withOUT a great system, this way i feel i know his downside, and get a better read on his talent.

 

[valhallan]

I'm sure many will disagree but my thinking is 3-5 years and some of these guys won't be studs in the NFL then such as McAllister.

Why won't McAllister be a stud in 3-5 years?It's not age, so I'm trying to figure out what you're saying.

He's 26 this past Dec. He'll be 27 before he finishes next year. I doubt he'll be a top 10 for more than 1-2 more years.

Yes, but why? His running style, situation, talent..?And in the spirit of full disclosure, did you own him this year?

Haven't owned him for 2 years now. I like him just so not think he's top 10 dynasty. Maybe top 11 but not top 10.

You're not providing any reasons for your opinion. I'm starting to think this is a really bad trip.

Maybe if you read my posts closer you wouldn't respond with this. My reasons are stated and fish all you want. Getting any bites?Finishing #21 in my league this year doesn't do anything to support he'll be TOP 10 DYNASTY. And he isn't getting any younger. Again, he's good but I do not see him top 10 in a dynasty. If you do that's fine. You can have him. I'll stick with my list until I have something better to go on.

Calm down, buddy. I never said you're wrong, I just want to know what your reasoning is. So far all you've said is hell be 27 and you don't think he'll be elite. Ok, great but why? Can you give us some analysis on his running style, stats history, offensive system, etc? Otherwise your opinion on him is useless.. it's like someone saying Justin Griffith will be a top-10 dynasty back because he's only 23.I believe Drugrunner wanted us to discuss these running backs, why are you so unwilling?

 

[zamboni]

2. Larry Johnson-I've seen what he can do and if he's in KC he will likely be #1. I just can't put above LT.

Wow, even as a Johnson owner myself, I can't see that. Too much team uncertainty after Holmes presumably leaves after next year.

I too am a Johnson owner(spent the 1.1 rookie pick on him 2 years ago) and although he single handedly won me my Z5 championship this year, there is no way you can put him at #2, at least not as long as Priest is still in the picture.

I thought this was a dynasty discussion. Assumming Holmes retires after next year I can see him #2. Look past next year and what do you see?

With an aging Oline, and Vermeil probably gone then, i see a potential for a system breakdown, which i believe is mostly responsible for LJ, Holmes, and Blaylocks production over the last 4 years.

Check the KC history. They've had a great deal of RB success over the years.

Mike Cloud? Frank Moreau?It's really only been since Priest came on board, with a few big years by Okoye and Marcus Allen (among a few others) before that.

 

[hxperson]

We're talking fantasy points and dynasty. McAllister is no Faulk or Holmes. And for every 30+ guy they had a heck of track record before then and just kept going. McAllister is having a tough time cracking top 10 now, it won't get any easier. Just ask all those guys you mentioned. Also, it's a rare group that have achieved the past 30 production. This guy is good but he's not in their class.

I completely disagree with your opinion. I think Deuce is an elite talent and that you are putting too much emphasis on his struggles this year. 1. I don't argue that Faulk is a very special player, but I see no reason why anyone should think McAllister is not as talented as Priest Holmes. He's bigger, has better break away speed, and has good hands. Probably the only things Priest has on him are vision and balance as far as I've seen, and these things can be improved with experience. Deuce is not all that durable, but neither is Priest anymore.2. Deuce has been a starter for three years now, and 2004 is the only year he finished out of the top 10, according to FBG's stats. How can you call that "having a tough time cracking top 10"?3. Deuce is only 26 years old, so he has plenty of time to put together a "heck of a track record" before he reaches 30 years old. I don't think anybody can definitively say what his track record will be like when he hits thirty with any sort of credibility.

 

[ILoveMyLions]

We're talking fantasy points and dynasty. McAllister is no Faulk or Holmes. And for every 30+ guy they had a heck of track record before then and just kept going. McAllister is having a tough time cracking top 10 now, it won't get any easier. Just ask all those guys you mentioned. Also, it's a rare group that have achieved the past 30 production. This guy is good but he's not in their class.

I completely disagree with your opinion. I think Deuce is an elite talent and that you are putting too much emphasis on his struggles this year. 1. I don't argue that Faulk is a very special player, but I see no reason why anyone should think McAllister is not as talented as Priest Holmes. He's bigger, has better break away speed, and has good hands. Probably the only things Priest has on him are vision and balance as far as I've seen, and these things can be improved with experience. Deuce is not all that durable, but neither is Priest anymore.2. Deuce has been a starter for three years now, and 2004 is the only year he finished out of the top 10, according to FBG's stats. How can you call that "having a tough time cracking top 10"?3. Deuce is only 26 years old, so he has plenty of time to put together a "heck of a track record" before he reaches 30 years old. I don't think anybody can definitively say what his track record will be like when he hits thirty with any sort of credibility.

I can't see any dynasty top ten list that doesn't have McAllister on it. But then again I've seen lists on this thread with Larry Johnson at #2 and Curtis Martin at #6! That's ridiculous in my opinion, but it's just my opinion. I sure wish I could join a league with you guys though...

 

[Mr. Anonymous]

This list is based on EV - expected value - (probability times results) for the next three years only, and assumes that everyone resigns with his current team. I'm in a keeper league, not a dynasty league, so I'm not going to project any further than that.1 Alexander - assume he resigns; he plays2 Tomlinson - stud; wish he would play whole games3 McGahee - has all the makings4 James - if he resigns, still has legs and great offense5 Lewis - soft spot; hope he rebounds6 K. Jones - think he's a future stud7 McCallister - not a believer but he's proven it8 Portis - should rebound next year9 D. Davis - great if he keeps his job10 S. Jackson - great value in 2nd and 3rd year; next year RBBCJust missed:Green - too old, fumbles keep him just out of top 10Dillon - mileageBarber - just misses the list; our league doesn't reward receiving RBsMartin - too old for 2nd and 3rd year EVR. Johnson - higher value for 1st year; just not a believerJ. Jones - can't fit everyone in top 10; may be proven wrongOthers:Larry Johnson - Holmes takes away value in first year; no guarantee he'll ever be starter; has high results quotient, lower probability quotientTatum Bell - very high results quotient, probabilities to start/not be injured keep him from top 10Priest Holmes - high value next year, then assumed goneThomas Jones - can't bring myself to put in top 10Brian Westbrook - not long term solution in Philly;injuriesFred Taylor - not for three yearsDeShaun Foster - would be very high if not for injuriesChris Perry - assuming Rudi resigns; don't know who will start in out years

 

[EBF]

This list is based on EV - expected value - (probability times results) for the next three years only, and assumes that everyone resigns with his current team. I'm in a keeper league, not a dynasty league, so I'm not going to project any further than that.1 Alexander - assume he resigns; he plays2 Tomlinson - stud; wish he would play whole games3 McGahee - has all the makings4 James - if he resigns, still has legs and great offense5 Lewis - soft spot; hope he rebounds6 K. Jones - think he's a future stud7 McCallister - not a believer but he's proven it8 Portis - should rebound next year9 D. Davis - great if he keeps his job10 S. Jackson - great value in 2nd and 3rd year; next year RBBCJust missed:Green - too old, fumbles keep him just out of top 10Dillon - mileageBarber - just misses the list; our league doesn't reward receiving RBsMartin - too old for 2nd and 3rd year EVR. Johnson - higher value for 1st year; just not a believerJ. Jones - can't fit everyone in top 10; may be proven wrongOthers:Larry Johnson - Holmes takes away value in first year; no guarantee he'll ever be starter; has high results quotient, lower probability quotientTatum Bell - very high results quotient, probabilities to start/not be injured keep him from top 10Priest Holmes - high value next year, then assumed goneThomas Jones - can't bring myself to put in top 10Brian Westbrook - not long term solution in Philly;injuriesFred Taylor - not for three yearsDeShaun Foster - would be very high if not for injuriesChris Perry - assuming Rudi resigns; don't know who will start in out years

I also did my rankings by EV, although I'll admit that I did it in my head rather than actually writing it down. Nevertheless, EV is a really important concept in dynasty leagues.