im going to try to write up wimbush, betterson, pearman, and any other tailbacks that go in the draft before most leagues rookie drafts in the summer.i also plan on updating this thread after the draft with guys whose stock i would upgrade/downgrade based on where they landed.Bloom.. good stuff and thanks for posting all of this stuff.. The one guy I meant to ask you if you had plans to profile was Pearman.. He's hanging around on my radar until I have a reason to drop him. He's been productive when healthy.
:Z30:Funny,I sorta like Arrington, but can't argue with you. He's played very well for CAL the last 2 years (spot duty as a JR), but I can see where you might have reservations.Nope. I don't think he's featured back material at the next level.No JJ Arrington in your top 8?Here's how I see it:
But what I fully disagree with is your third tier. If we were in a dynasty draft together, I'd be more than happy to tell you before the draft that I wouldn't touch either McClendon or Clarett. You need heart & health to make it onto my roster. They're both laking.
had to bring this post back up.I would not limit the scope just to running backs, but all offensive skill position players. Come late March and early April, the draft will have shifted to its usual focus of defensive linemen, offensive tackles, a cornerback or two and 2\3 big (6'2) wide receivers with speed (4.4). Throw in 2 or 3 franchise quarterback backs and depth at running backs we saw in January and February disappear.It happens every year, I think the earliest a running back goes this year will be 8th, and I feel I am being overly optimistic.I hate to throw a negative vibe into a positive thread, but RB depth in the NFL draft always looks rosey in Jan and Feb. Unfortunately, this is before 1.) the combine/pro-day and 2.) the NFL draft.![]()
There are no real stud RB in this draft.The only one who deserves to be pick in the first round is Ronnie Brown.here's my initial grouping of the top 18:
3 studs (benson, cadillac, brown)
stud talent (fason)
workhorses (morency, mcclendon, arrington)
power backs (harris, houston, jacobs)
RBBC studs in college with feature talent (shelton, barber)
elusive little guys (moats, sproles)
interesting gambles (clarett, gore, nash, davis)
and thoughts on some likely late round/undrafted FA RBs:
i would put purify in a group with guys like ryan grant(ND), noah herron(northwestern) and walter reyes(syracuse), very productive college RBs in big time college football who just dont project to be good pros.
purify is a sturdy(6'0" 215) chainmover, and decent receiver, but SLOW (4.75), and not the most durable in college. I see him as a competent backup in the NFL on a run first team that will take the holes that he's given and hit em hard, but never break away or make something out of nothing.
herron is another very sturdy guy at 5'11" 230, and like purify, his rush/receiving game is well rounded. he'll dish out the hits and plays smart football, but like purify he's SLOW (4.75) and doesnt have the right skills to project as a FB.
reyes is well-rounded and has a 5th gear(4.36), but a little smallish at 5'10 210, and he plays even smaller - doesnt run with power and authority, which you have to do in the NFL. unlike purify and herron, reyes could become a solid #1 RB if he bulks up a little and learns how to run stronger while preserving that track speed.
grant is built well (6'1" 218) and knows how to see the hole and hit the hole. He's also got decent speed for his size (4.5). However, he is totally one-dimensional and doesnt really break tackles or make anything on his own. he's another one who will be very competent as a backup, but doesnt seem to have a future a #1.
Feel free to add any thoughts on any of the 2005 rookie RBs
all the others are second and third round material , especially with the amount of good free agent RB this year.
It's a deep draft for RB but no first round material, they will be taken in the first round but it will be a huge gamble.
I say not before the 10 th pick in the first round you see a RB.
Though I wasn't high on McLendon, I didn't expect him to go undrafted. I assume he'll be in camp somewhere, but it would now seem even more unlikely that he ever amounts to anything in the NFL.I posted this previously:workhorses (morency, mcclendon, arrington)From Raleigh newspaper:NFL will roll dice on McLendon
Pretty unflattering article, but as an N.C. State fan, I can't really argue with it. I think the odds are against McLendon amounting to much in the NFL. I was so excited about his prospects after his freshman season, but he hasn't come close to repeating that performance in either of the two seasons since.By CAULTON TUDOR, Staff Writer
Somewhere out there in NFL land, a team will take a chance on T.A. McLendon.
And that's exactly what it will be -- a chance, a gamble, a shot in the blind, a lottery ticket that comes with an expensive price tag. To assume that the N.C. State running back is a legitimate professional football prospect is to assume much too much.
McLendon, at his best, was one of the most gifted running backs in ACC history. He came with Ken Willard's size, Ted Brown's cuts and Tiki Barber's quickness.
But McLendon also was about as dependable as an airline schedule. One game, he was Bo Jackson. The next, he was Bo Peep.
With T.A., what you saw you didn't necessarily get. He might be remembered as either the best bad running back in Wolfpack history or the worst good one.
State coach Chuck Amato even waded into the McLendon enigma by saying that no back can gain yardage while he's sitting in a hot tub. At one point, McLendon was promised a ride to the locker room in a golf cart if he could get through a week of practice without suffering an injury.
Amato made light of those ongoing injuries. NFL coaches won't.
Nor will they dabble so freely in motivational psychology. At the next level, McLendon will be pampered about as much as a bug in a baby's crib. He'll have to work every day or walk the first day.
McLendon's talent isn't an issue. He has the skills, as a pure runner, to make it.
But does he have the intensity? Will he block?
He never did much of that at State. When face-to-face with an aggressive defender, he was as apt to duck as to duke it out.
And will he hold on to the ball? Play for play, McLendon committed far more turnovers than most elite college runners. Fumble too much in the NFL, and they'll see how you look as a linebacker. Or as a spectator.
Finally, can he catch the ball? Even with Philip Rivers throwing it, any swing pass to McLendon at State was an adventure. Some he would catch. Others he would fetch -- after the ball bounced off his shoulder pads.
Like so many others, I watched McLendon play for three years, and I'm still not completely certain what to make of him. At times, I saw an incredible talent. After his game at Clemson as a freshman, I thought he was a Heisman Trophy winner in the making. On his final run against North Carolina this year, I was watching a runner who, even with the outcome on the line, didn't show the maturity or determination to put the previous play behind him.
In the final analysis, what I really saw was a great talent wearing Wolfpack red but living in the world of Albemarle High School blue. Talented high school players fail every day in college. Even more college greats fail to cut it in the NFL.
In college, McLendon never seriously approached greatness on a consistent basis. Physically, he had it all. Mentally, he didn't.
Throughout his injury-plagued three seasons at N.C. State, McLendon was Mr. Could-Be. In the pros, he'd better be Mr. Can-Do, or he'll be unemployed
Good #### Bloom, I would agree with most of that.Ronnie Brown, MIA - uncontested starter, should play every down. weak QB play and line may make for tough sledding at first, but saban should get the team turned around within 2 years.
Cedric Benson, CHI - there's the Tjones factor, but Chicago's new OC seems committed to a power running ball control game, so long term this looks like a great fit.
Carnell Williams, TB - Should get Pittman's amount of touches at worst to begin with. Gruden's fetish for role playing backs may keep him from getting the amount of touches the RBs taken before him get, but his explosiveness could nullify the fantasy effect of fewer touches.
JJ Arrington, ARI - the jackpot winner of the 2005 rookie RB class for instant opportunity. In an offense with young extremely talented WRs and a great line.
Eric Shelton, CAR - set up to take Stephen Davis's role in the carolina offense. Should be enough carries to go around for him to get 200-250 even if Foster suddenly becomes durable - Stephen Davis's 2003 numbers are the upside if Foster continues to get hurt
Frank Gore, SF - with a new coach and barlow's checkered past and lack of proven production as a feature back, Gore lands in a situation where you have to think he will get every shot to win the job next year, if not getting a long look at some time this year. Only risk is that Barlow suddenly finds himself. Barlow's expensive, and that helps the chance that Gore gets a shot next year. Also helps that SF should be looking at top WR to help Smith early in the draft next year (thats the usual pattern when you take your franchise QB, unless your WR corps is already set, and SF's is not), reducing the chance that they go with a big time RB in the first.
Vernand Morency, HOU - Sitting behind a feature back who has had problems staying healthy in Dom Davis - I think Morency has the ability to take the job from Davis permanently if Davis gets hurt again. Not as good as Gore's situation, because Davis would still have a role as 3rd down and change of pace even if morency hits a home run with any opportunity he gets.
Ryan Moats, PHI - Philly is a frugal organization, and I feel confident that Westbrook is not an eagle come 2006 - opening the door for Moats. Like Morency, Im not sure he becomes a true feature back with the amount of touches the guys above can get, but still has the potential for enough production to be a very valuable #2 fantasy RB, and is very likely to get his shot next year.
Mo Clarett, DEN - dont get too excited. IF he gets his head on straight and beats out Bell or takes his job when bell gets hurt, all that means is that he's the one with the target on his back. May give you a top season or two, but i dont see mo having the chance to become a stalwart starter like the guys taken above him.
Marion Barber, DAL - hearing that Tuna loves this kid, and some think that means he'll have a bias towards giving barber his shot. Jones was still very impressive in the second half and fit the cowboys running philosophy perfectly, although barber does too. Hard to see them giving up on Jones, another serious injury is the only way i see barber getting the majority of the work in next two years. That being said, the marriage of running style and offensive philosophy is still very good, and if he gets his shot, I am confident he will do well - getting the shot is the main question.
Brandon Jacobs, NYG - short yardage back - nothing to see here.
Ciatrick Fason, MIN - probably the most jumbled RB situation in the league, but should be pared down to him and MMoore next year - i was very impressed with Moore last year, and dont see how he can be kept off the field. Minnesota could also easily take a top RB next year. Very cloudy future.
Alvin Pearman, JAX - very interesting situation, as i think he's the best suited to be a feature back after Taylor on Jacksonville's roster - im not that high on Toefield, and Jones is one-dimensional. Went from an afterthought my rookie draft board to being worthy of a late 3rd rounder. Can do everything well, could be another tiki barber/dom davis type - not the most exciting, but competent.
Darren Sproles, SD - a nice weapon for SDs offense and special teams, but no fantasy prospects with Chatman and Turner blocking him.
Damien Nash/Walter Reyes/Charles Anthony - TEN - these guys will fight it out to become Chris Brown's backup. Nash has the highest upside by far, but is a risk to be a character problem. Watch to see who emerges. Nash is worth a 3rd rounder if you own Brown, because he's the only one who has the talent to be a big time producer if given the shot.
Cedric Houston, NYJ - actually a very good situation for a late pick - blaylock is not feature back material, and if houston can tap into his immense talent and stay healthy, he could convince the jets to not take an RB early next year to replace Martin. I like him as a 3rd round rookie pick on the chance he seizes the RB of the future mantle.
Deandra Cobb, ATL - have to think they drafted him as a KR - nothing to see here.
Noah Herron, PIT - in line to become the heir to Haynes as the steelers swiss army knife back if Haynes wants too much money next year, but i dont see him being good enough to become the guy the steelers feed in the running game at any point down the line.
Lionel Gates, BUF - Interesting situation, as i think he could easily be the 2nd best RB on Buffalo's roster if henry gets traded. Buffalo has a good rushing offense and is committed to the run, so he could be a surprise fantasy force if mcgahee were to go down... i would use a 4th rounder on him if i owned mcgahee. Long term, I dont think Gates is good enough to be a long term feature back, but he was in an RBBC with Shelton and Michael Bush, so there could be some hidden talent there.
Anthony Davis, IND - Hard to see him getting around Rhodes on the depth chart.
Kay Jay Harris, MIA - im curious what caused him to plummet out of the draft, while a very similar back in Brandon Jacobs went in the 4th. Brown is the man in Miami, but Harris could win the job as his backup - but is too one dimensional to have great fantasy prospects unless he ends up on a power running team.
Ryan Grant, NYG - Definitely has the talent to win the backup job in New York and be productive if barber gets hurt. Not a bad situation for an undrafted FA as there is no established backup for the gmen
Derrick Wimbush, JAX - A big time sleeper as he looked good in all star games and dominated at a lower level. If he shows hidden upside in camp, he could join Pearman and Toefield in the battle to be Fred's backup.
Decori Birmingham, NE - a converted WR who could stick and be the heir to faulk's 3rd down RB role, but no chance to be a feature back in the NFL.
Jesse Lumsden, SEA - since he wasnt drafted, i am assuming he goes to the CFL - still worth watching if he goes to camp.
DeWhitt Betterson, CHI - another small school sleeper undrafted FA, i like his potential but its hard to see him sticking on the roster unless Atrain gets traded. I like him and Wimbush as guys to stick on development squads and possibly emerge in a few years to get a shot - but unless benson busts, Betterson's shot wont be in chicago.
TA McClendon, ATL - I dont see opportunity opening up here even if TA sticks. Definitely the rookie RBs whose value took the biggest hit on draft day - had a freshmen year at NC State to almost match clarett and its been all downhill from there.
Local article (LINK):TA McClendon, ATL - I dont see opportunity opening up here even if TA sticks. Definitely the rookie RBs whose value took the biggest hit on draft day - had a freshmen year at NC State to almost match clarett and its been all downhill from there.
It is a bit surprising that Clarett and McLendon were so close in their freshman seasons, yet two subsequent years out of football along with off field issues resulted in a third round pick for Clarett but two subsequent less productive years mostly on the field for McLendon resulted in going undrafted.Taking a flier on T.A.
Former Pack back signs with Falcons
At a little past 6 o'clock Sunday night, N.C. State tailback T.A. McLendon received a cell-phone call from his agent, Joby Branion of Athletes First.
"His first words were, 'You've got to be kidding me,' " Branion said Monday.
After 255 players had been selected in seven rounds of the NFL Draft, McLendon had not heard his name called. The two-day draft was over, and no NFL team had taken McLendon.
"He was pretty disappointed," Branion said. "We weren't predicting first or second round, but as the draft went on and he began to slide, it was like, 'Geez ...' "
McLendon's mood brightened a bit Monday, Branion said, when the player agreed to a free-agent contract with the Atlanta Falcons. McLendon was one of three Wolfpack players to sign Monday as free agents; cornerbacks Lamont Reid and Dovonte Edwards are going to the Arizona Cardinals and Minnesota Vikings, respectively.
Three State players were drafted -- offensive tackle Chris Colmer in the third round by Tampa Bay, safety Andre Maddox in the fifth by the New York Jets and linebacker Pat Thomas in the sixth by Jacksonville.
Free-agent deals for undrafted rookies generally aren't guaranteed, meaning there's no money for a player unless he makes the team. For a player with less than one season in the league, the 2005 minimum salary is $230,000 if he's on the roster at any point during the regular season, according to the NFL Players Association Web site.
"T.A. is a pretty upbeat kid," Branion said. "I told him late in the sixth round Sunday that it might be better not to get drafted. Atlanta looks like a pretty good opportunity for him."
The Falcons have two veteran running backs, Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett, and drafted Michigan State's DeAndra Cobb in the sixth round. Cobb averaged a school-record 7.6 yards a carry last season, and in two seasons at MSU scored four touchdowns on kickoff returns.
McLendon, the 2002 ACC rookie of the year, gave up his final year of college eligibility to enter the draft. But Branion and other draft analysts agreed that McLendon's string of injuries, a tendency to fumble and poor running times at the NFL Scouting Combine, as well as the deep pool of available running backs, caused teams to pass on him.
"I was a little shocked," said Jason Leaist, an analyst for profootballdraft.com. "He had the history of injuries, which means questions about durability. But you look at him and at Maurice Clarett, and you wonder."
Clarett, the former Ohio State tailback who helped the Buckeyes win the 2002 national title, went in the third round to the Denver Broncos despite sitting out of football for the last two years and allegations of having taken improper gifts at OSU and lied during the investigations.
Leaist noted that Clarett had 40-yard times of 4.82 and 4.72 seconds at the combine, almost identical to McLendon's times. Clarett also quit during his combine workout, while McLendon completed all of his workout requirements, Leaist said.
"Clarett hasn't played in 24 months and has the strong character issues," Leaist said. "McLendon played three years, so you scratch your head and wonder what the NFL scouts saw.
"McLendon has NFL size at 5-10 and 235 pounds. The question is, with the injuries, does he have the burst? With 4.8 speed, NFL scouts must have said 'no' with him. In the NFL, it's all about burst to the hole. A fraction of a second is the difference between getting 2 yards and 8 yards."
McLendon, who has declined interview requests, led the Pack in rushing in each of his three seasons and finished with 2,479 career rushing yards, the eighth-best total in school history. A capable pass receiver, McLendon scored 36 career touchdowns.
Frank Coyle, publisher of Draft Insiders' Digest and the Web site draftinsiders.com, said McLendon's 40 times at the scouting combine in February may have been too much to overcome for a back who missed six games because of knee, shoulder and hamstring injuries at State.
"He ran very poorly," Coyle said. "It's not like you have to run a 4.4, but you can't run a 4.8, not if you're an underclassman with durability concerns. You have to be in shape and be ready to run at the combine."
Leaist noted that running back Brandon Jacobs of Southern Illinois, taken in the fourth round by the New York Giants, is 6-4 and 267 pounds. Yet, Jacobs had a 40-yard time of 4.56 seconds.
Leaist and Coyle said the Falcons might be a good fit for McLendon, even though they already have Dunn, 32, a former Florida State standout, and Duckett, a 6-0, 254-pound bruiser.
"He needs to go make an impression, make the practice squad, show durability and go from there," Leaist said.
Coyle noted that Priest Holmes, an All-Pro running back with the Kansas City Chiefs, wasn't drafted.
"The confidence is still there with T.A.," said Branion, the agent. "He knows he's better than being an undrafted back."