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[Dynasty] 2019 NFL Draft Class (1 Viewer)

These 5 NFL draft prospects don’t measure up to their first-round hype

One of the things that makes the NFL draft so entertaining is that there are no defined scouting rules. What one decision-maker deems important could be the opposite of what another values in a player.

When the Pro Football Focusteam puts together its prospect evaluations, the thing we prioritize above all else is college production, based on PFF’s grades and statistics gathered from every collegiate game. And in putting together our draft board, a few players have stood out as not having performed up to the level that justifies their current draft stock.

Here are five potential first-round picks that bring with them some risk:

Rashan Gary, DL, Michigan

Even traditional stats will bring up some major red flags with Gary. He’s racked up all of 9.5 sacks and 23 tackles for loss across 34 games in his college career. The grades look even worse, as he earned a 71.5 pass-rushing grade (on a 0 to 100 scale) and an 82.2 overall grade last season — both of which are significantly lower than the other top pass-rush prospects in this year’s class.

While injuries were a factor, the best pass-rush grade he earned in his college career was just a 72.7 as a sophomore. And unlike fellow defensive line prospect Ed Oliver of Houston, Gary’s lack of production can’t be attributed to coaching or defensive scheme. Gary played on a Michigan defensive line that has seen many players rank at or near the top of PFF’s player grades, including teammate Chase Winovich in this year’s class.

The question for NFL evaluators weighing Gary’s potential as an NFL pass rusher: Why couldn’t he turn that ability into production in college, when he had a clear athletic advantage over nearly every offensive lineman he faced?

Daniel Jones, QB, Duke

This evaluation of Jones comes with a caveat: He played behind the second-worst offensive line in pass-blocking grades in college football. However, he didn’t overcome that lack of talent in front of him in any way that indicates he should be a first-round pick, and he didn’t even rank in the top five of his draft class in passing grade last season (80.3).

Compared to a player like the Rams’ Jared Goff, who excelled in college despite playing with a poor supporting cast, Jones simply doesn’t measure up.

Drew Lock, QB, Missouri

If you’re looking for a silver lining in Lock’s college grades, it’s worth noting that he improved every season of his career at Missouri. The problem is that even his best grade suggests he is little more than a middling quarterback prospect.

Lock’s 86.3 passing grade last season ranked eighth among all starting quarterbacks in the draft class, and his accuracy in particular stands out as a red flag: His 70.6 adjusted completion percentage ranked 18th among draft eligible quarterbacks. Quarterbacks who fared that poorly in previous years haven’t been able to fix those issues once they reached the NFL.

Parris Campbell, WR, Ohio State

The concerns surrounding Campbell are dependent upon the role the team who drafts him sees for him. If a team wants him to be a slot receiver and gadget player, Campbell has proven more than capable of filling that role. If a team saw his 4.31-second 40-yard dash time and envisioned him as a plug-and-play deep threat, it is likely going to have buyer’s remorse.

The Ohio State wideout simply has never been utilized as that kind of a receiver. In fact, Campbell lined up as a boundary wide receiver for the Buckeyes on only 231 passing snaps during his entire career, averaging a measly 1.1 yards per route. On his 490 passing snaps out of the slot, however, Campbell averaged 3.1 yards per route. The majority of that slot production came this past season, when only 21 of his 111 targets were on throws 10-plus yards downfield.

He simply hasn’t been a complete receiver up to this point in his career, and teams counting on him being more than a slot receiver at the next level are taking a major risk.

Josh Jacobs, RB, Alabama

This year’s running back class is weaker than past seasons, but that doesn’t mean franchises need to reach to land a talented player at the position.

Jacobs is projected to be a late-first round pick, with mock drafts connecting him to the Ravens at 22nd overall, the Raiders at 24th and the Eagles at 25th. Simply put, that would be a mistake.

That’s not a knock against Jacobs, who is rightly being viewed as the best running back in this class. It’s more about how small the gap is between Jacobs and a player like Florida’s Jordan Scarlett, whom PFF has ranked as the eighth-best running back in this class and will likely be available on Day 3 of the draft.

On 255 carries in Jacobs’ college career, he averaged 0.25 forced missed tackles per attempt and 4.1 yards after contact per attempt. On 347 college carries, Scarlett averaged 0.29 forced missed tackles per attempt and 3.8 yards after contact per attempt. Those are nearly identical numbers, both against SEC competition, and Scarlett even ended with the higher career rushing grade than Jacobs, at 88.2 to 86.2. The numbers don’t tell the whole story, but what they do say is that for a player like Jacobs who didn’t even put up special athletic testing scores, a first-round pick is simply too much of an investment.
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NFL Media's Daniel Jeremiah matched Missouri QB Drew Lock with the Los Angeles Chargers.

Jeremiah played the "QB landing spot game" and the results were Murray to Arizona, Haskins to Cincinnati, Jones to the Giants, Lock to the Chargers, and Rosen to Washington. The Murray, Jones, and Rosen projections are chalky, but the Haskins and Lock calls are bold. If Lock is a top-10 pick as he's projected, the Chargers would have to give up a ton of assets to move up from their 28th overall pick, but it's the draft so we can't rule anything out.

SOURCE: Daniel Jeremiah on Twitter

Apr 10, 2019, 8:28 AM
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The Washington Redskins are hosting Duke QB Daniel Jones and Ohio State QB Dwayne Haskins on visits.

Washington is digging deep into this quarterback class and have visited or are scheduled to visit with just about every quarterback prospect with a chance to start in the NFL. It's presumed that they are analyzing if any of the quarterbacks are better than Josh Rosen, who has been connected to Washington from top beat reporters over the last week. If Washington is serious about any of this year's quarterbacks, it's expected that they would have to trade up to draft him since their 15th overall pick is behind the Broncos (10th), Bengals (11th), and Dolphins (13th).

SOURCE: Ian Rapoport on Twitter

Apr 10, 2019, 8:51 AM
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ffmail4me said:
If The Redskins trade away their 1st next year to move up to 1.3 I will murder someone. 
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and if the Raiders trade up to 1.1 to grab a QB when they could've grabbed 3 quality D prospects with their 3 1st rounders, then... that's it. I'm really really going to stop being a Raider fan and I really, really mean it this time, unlike the past 5 times I've tried to quit them ;)

 
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NFL Network's Ian Rapoport says the Carolina Panthers have spent "considerable time" with West Virginia QB Will Grier.

The Panthers appear to be in the market for a backup quarterback as they have also recently met with Northwestern QB Clayton Thorson, and it's probably a worthwhile investment with Cam Newton's shoulder acting up. Under new ownership, Carolina is reportedly putting more faith into analytics, so it wouldn't be overly surprising for the Panthers to draft Grier (6'2/217) on Day 2. At West Virginia, Grier was near the top in Passing EPA and was one of the most accurate passers in college football.

SOURCE: Ian Rapoport on Twitter

Apr 10, 2019, 11:16 AM
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The Athletic's Dane Brugler said Texas WR Lil'Jordan Humphrey's 4.75-second 40-yard dash was a "killer" to his draft stock.

Brugler gives Humphrey (6'4/210) a 5th-6th Round grade, but he did leave Humphrey out of his seven-round mock draft and only said that he "might" get drafted. His athleticism is that of an undrafted player, but Humphrey was productive at Texas and he was even a crafty runner at times. If he can crack a 53-man roster, Humphrey is destined for a big slot role.

SOURCE: Dane Brugler on Twitter
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Faust said:
A healthy Bryce Love would be the steal of the 2019 NFL Draft
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He's really under the radar right now, as evidenced by not even having his own thread. If he hadn't torn his ACL in December he'd be my #1 RB. His 2017 was better than anything anyone else in this class has ever shown. There was almost zero drop off from McCaffrey to Love. 

I've still got him as a top-5 RB personally, but he's got the highest ceiling in my eyes. He does everything Henderson does, but is better between the tackles, and has/had better long speed. Fully believe he'd have been under 4.4 if healthy.

 
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travdogg said:
He's really under the radar right now, as evidenced by not even having his own thread. If he hadn't torn his ACL in December he'd be my #1 RB. His 2017 was better than anything anyone else in this class has ever shown. There was almost zero drop off from McCaffrey to Love. 
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but his 2018 was pretty bad pre injury

Same could be said about Justice Hill and even Rodney Anderson

He's intriguing but a bad 2018 has me second guessing him

 
travdogg said:
He's really under the radar right now, as evidenced by not even having his own thread. If he hadn't torn his ACL in December he'd be my #1 RB. His 2017 was better than anything anyone else in this class has ever shown. There was almost zero drop off from McCaffrey to Love. 

I've still got him as a top-5 RB personally, but he's got the highest ceiling in my eyes. He does everything Henderson does, but is better between the tackles, and has/had better long speed. Fully believe he'd have been under 4.4 if healthy.
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Count me as one of those that hopes he stays under the radar. Let's me sneak him onto my roster. Worth a flier, IMO.  I'm hoping the same holds true with Rodney Anderson too.

 
Dr. Dan said:
but his 2018 was pretty bad pre injury

Same could be said about Justice Hill and even Rodney Anderson

He's intriguing but a bad 2018 has me second guessing him
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Love's blocking was non-existent in 2018, and he didn't have the same change of direction playing on an ankle injury all year. Even then he still averaged 4.5 yards per carry, including 3.6 after contact, meaning his o-line only got him 0.9 yards per carry, which is less than any RB in this draft class. 

I don't see the similarity to Hill at all. Hill had a rib injury, and had vastly superior blocking. Hill's 2017 best, doesn't come close to Love's. Also people were pretty scared of OSU's passing game in 2017, as Mason Rudolph, James Washington, Marcel Ateman were all NFL draft picks, early ones in the first 2 cases.

Anderson never had the down season, as he suffered his major injury very early in the season, as he only had 11 carries last year. He was a solid RB in 2017, but again nowhere near Love's level.

In 2017:

Love had 262 carries, 1,122 yards, for a 4.3 average. 

Montgomery had 258 carries, 1,145 yards, for a 4.4 average.

Except those Love numbers are just his after contact numbers! His overall numbers were 262-2,116-8.1. 

It's true, he's undersized at 5'8 200, and likely questionable for week 1, but long term, unless he lost a ton of speed from the ACL tear(which history would say is unlikely at his age) I see a great player, with home run speed, who breaks tackles and has has good moves, that is going to likely be a day 3 pick, because he might be a PUP list guy in year 1. 

 
travdogg said:
Love's blocking was non-existent in 2018, and he didn't have the same change of direction playing on an ankle injury all year. Even then he still averaged 4.5 yards per carry, including 3.6 after contact, meaning his o-line only got him 0.9 yards per carry, which is less than any RB in this draft class. 

I don't see the similarity to Hill at all. Hill had a rib injury, and had vastly superior blocking. Hill's 2017 best, doesn't come close to Love's. Also people were pretty scared of OSU's passing game in 2017, as Mason Rudolph, James Washington, Marcel Ateman were all NFL draft picks, early ones in the first 2 cases.

Anderson never had the down season, as he suffered his major injury very early in the season, as he only had 11 carries last year. He was a solid RB in 2017, but again nowhere near Love's level.

In 2017:

Love had 262 carries, 1,122 yards, for a 4.3 average. 

Montgomery had 258 carries, 1,145 yards, for a 4.4 average.

Except those Love numbers are just his after contact numbers! His overall numbers were 262-2,116-8.1. 

It's true, he's undersized at 5'8 200, and likely questionable for week 1, but long term, unless he lost a ton of speed from the ACL tear(which history would say is unlikely at his age) I see a great player, with home run speed, who breaks tackles and has has good moves, that is going to likely be a day 3 pick, because he might be a PUP list guy in year 1. 
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Hes a gamble that's for sure, and he has potential to pay off in spades. IMO he should be questionable for week 8! I see him as a great buy low after 2019 tbh. I may target him round 3 if he is still there. not sure where he is going in general in rookie drafts... If I dont land him I'll be watching. 

I agree he is interesting but I'm not holding my breath 

 
travdogg said:
He's really under the radar right now, as evidenced by not even having his own thread. If he hadn't torn his ACL in December he'd be my #1 RB. His 2017 was better than anything anyone else in this class has ever shown. There was almost zero drop off from McCaffrey to Love. 

I've still got him as a top-5 RB personally, but he's got the highest ceiling in my eyes. He does everything Henderson does, but is better between the tackles, and has/had better long speed. Fully believe he'd have been under 4.4 if healthy.
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The question is, how long can we wait?  Does he make it to the third in fantasy drafts?

 
tkrull said:
The question is, how long can we wait?  Does he make it to the third in fantasy drafts?
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If he has him as his RB5, it's very possible he is taking him round 2.

IMO it depends where/if he goes in the NFL draft. I've seen him projected as a 7th or UDFA. If that's the case then 3rd round or UDFA (hed be a hot/expensive name) is where I'd put him. 

I have an early late 3rd that I would absolutely take him with. I expect him to he gone before that. 2 teams in my league have a ton of 2nd and 3rd rounders, and can probably afford a gamble early on him. 

 
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The problem with Love is that he barely reaches some RB thresholds.  You can find an interesting article about thresholds for this years class HERE.  From what we know he did meet 2 of these 6 and was 1/8th an inch away from 3/6.  I would imagine he runs better than 4.6 in the forty so if we want to be optimistic you can say 4/6 criteria.  Same as some other questionable prospects in this years class.  But we don't know his testing so it's hard to say what he would do in the other categories.  

Then you add in his hands for a passing down role, and it's hard to imagine him getting any of that work since he isn't a great receiver.  So what exactly is he?  At best he's a 1st and 2nd down home run threat, but that's so hard to project when/if he'll hit those home runs and if his size can sustain for long periods of time doing that.  You'd also need fairly good blocking for him, again reducing his chances of success.  He's nothing more than a long shot, non-draftable RB in my eyes.  

 
Zyphros said:
The problem with Love is that he barely reaches some RB thresholds.  You can find an interesting article about thresholds for this years class HERE.  From what we know he did meet 2 of these 6 and was 1/8th an inch away from 3/6.  I would imagine he runs better than 4.6 in the forty so if we want to be optimistic you can say 4/6 criteria.  Same as some other questionable prospects in this years class.  But we don't know his testing so it's hard to say what he would do in the other categories.  

Then you add in his hands for a passing down role, and it's hard to imagine him getting any of that work since he isn't a great receiver.  So what exactly is he?  At best he's a 1st and 2nd down home run threat, but that's so hard to project when/if he'll hit those home runs and if his size can sustain for long periods of time doing that.  You'd also need fairly good blocking for him, again reducing his chances of success.  He's nothing more than a long shot, non-draftable RB in my eyes. 
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Would you have said this about him if he declared in 2018?  People thought he was hot #### back then.

 
Dr. Dan said:
If he has him as his RB5, it's very possible he is taking him round 2.

IMO it depends where/if he goes in the NFL draft. I've seen him projected as a 7th or UDFA. If that's the case then 3rd round or UDFA (hed be a hot/expensive name) is where I'd put him. 

I have an early late 3rd that I would absolutely take him with. I expect him to he gone before that. 2 teams in my league have a ton of 2nd and 3rd rounders, and can probably afford a gamble early on him. 
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This exactly captures one of my leagues, and I am on of the two.  Planning on late 2nd as of now, but that of course can change with the draft. Definitely a gamble, but worth a shot with so many picks.

 
tangfoot said:
Would you have said this about him if he declared in 2018?  People thought he was hot #### back then.
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Hard to say, I only do evals for guys that are coming out, plus a few that were surprise no entries.  I actually did a super brief write up for Love last year.  From a traits standpoint I like a lot of what Bryce Love offers, but the receiving was still a huge question mark along with his size and strength.  None of that has changed in a years time.  His receiving is still a question, he didn't grow an extra 2 inches or add another 10 pounds either.  So the short answer, yes I think I would of said the same things, but there really is no way for me to tell.  

 
Zyphros said:
The problem with Love is that he barely reaches some RB thresholds.  You can find an interesting article about thresholds for this years class HERE.  From what we know he did meet 2 of these 6 and was 1/8th an inch away from 3/6.  I would imagine he runs better than 4.6 in the forty so if we want to be optimistic you can say 4/6 criteria.  Same as some other questionable prospects in this years class.  But we don't know his testing so it's hard to say what he would do in the other categories.  

Then you add in his hands for a passing down role, and it's hard to imagine him getting any of that work since he isn't a great receiver.  So what exactly is he?  At best he's a 1st and 2nd down home run threat, but that's so hard to project when/if he'll hit those home runs and if his size can sustain for long periods of time doing that.  You'd also need fairly good blocking for him, again reducing his chances of success.  He's nothing more than a long shot, non-draftable RB in my eyes.  
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Love is/was an elite track athlete. Its not optimistic at all to say he runs better than 4.6. He ran a 4.30 coming into college, had a 37 inch vertical, and won national titles for the 100 and 200 meter dash in HS. I'd call him 1/8 inch away from hitting 6/6. He's the most explosive RB in the draft class, probably be a wide margin if he makes it 100% back. He's also a very good pass blocker, and is excellent at squeezing through small holes. Its hard for me to wrap my head around someone liking Henderson, but not Love. 

I think Love will get drafted by round 4 in the NFL draft, if not for the ACL, likely round 2. Fantasy wise, it depends on the situation, as it does for all RB's, but there is absolutely a scenario that exists where I'd be willing to spend a 1st round pick on him. They only way I'd let him fall to round 3, is if he goes to a bad situation, and goes much later than I think.

 
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travdogg said:
Love is/was an elite track athlete. Its not optimistic at all to say he runs better than 4.6. He ran a 4.30 coming into college, had a 37 inch vertical, and won national titles for the 100 and 200 meter dash in HS. I'd call him 1/8 inch away from hitting 6/6. He's the most explosive RB in the draft class, probably be a wide margin if he makes it 100% back. He's also a very good pass blocker, and is excellent at squeezing through small holes. Its hard for me to wrap my head around someone liking Henderson, but not Love. 

I think Love will get drafted by round 4 in the NFL draft, if not for the ACL, likely round 2. Fantasy wise, it depends on the situation, as it does for all RB's, but there is absolutely a scenario that exists where I'd be willing to spend a 1st round pick on him. They only way I'd let him fall to round 3, is if he goes to a bad situation, and goes much later than I think.
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I didn't know about the 4.3 or the 37 vert so maybe he does meet 6/6, although barely in a few of those categories.  That still doesn't explain the pass catching role, or if his body will hold up to take on a 1st and 2nd down role in the NFL. 

Here's a question for you then.  What's the difference between Bryce Love and a guy like Justice Hill?  Both had over 3500 total yards just rushing in college (Hill in 3 years, Love in 4 years), both oddly enough had exactly 49 receptions, and Justice Hill tested as a fantastic athlete as people expect Bryce Love to be.  Both of who probably go 4th round at best at the NFL draft and are very close in age.  The only difference I can see is Love had a fantastic year that got him hyped up for Heisman consideration, while Hill flew under the radar a bit although he had a fantastic year in his own right.  

 
Zyphros said:
I didn't know about the 4.3 or the 37 vert so maybe he does meet 6/6, although barely in a few of those categories.  That still doesn't explain the pass catching role, or if his body will hold up to take on a 1st and 2nd down role in the NFL. 

Here's a question for you then.  What's the difference between Bryce Love and a guy like Justice Hill?  Both had over 3500 total yards just rushing in college (Hill in 3 years, Love in 4 years), both oddly enough had exactly 49 receptions, and Justice Hill tested as a fantastic athlete as people expect Bryce Love to be.  Both of who probably go 4th round at best at the NFL draft and are very close in age.  The only difference I can see is Love had a fantastic year that got him hyped up for Heisman consideration, while Hill flew under the radar a bit although he had a fantastic year in his own right.  
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I'll agree pass catching is his biggest weakness. Though I wonder if he could have done more, but since he's a good pass blocker, and the o-line was awful, they felt he had more value doing that instead. He also was stuck behind McCaffrey his 1st 2 seasons, and I'm not sure any RB on the planet was getting passing down work over him.

Hill had a much better supporting cast, both at the skill positions and on the o-line. I also think Love is a better blocker, and at least as good of a pass catcher. Hill also goes down on first contact quite a bit. Basically, I don't think Hill does anything better than Love(except avoid ACL tears I guess) but Love does a lot of things better than Hill. Love is at least 2 rounds higher on my board.

 
Dr. Dan said:
Trying to get my head around how both of these are true. Henderson is an excellent pass catcher. 

Where would you take Love in a rookie draft
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I would disagree that Henderson is an excellent pass catcher. He's fine, but excellent is reserved more for the Christian McCaffrey's of the world. I wouldn't disagree that he does it better than Love. I think Love is a decent pass catcher, the fact that it is his weakness, speaks to my thoughts on the rest of his game. 

If I were drafting right now, I'd take Love in early/mid round 2. If I can wait until after the draft, there is a chance he moves into round 1 for me, depending on landing spot. I think he's got a good chance of being drafted by a forward thinking team that doesn't need a RB for week 1(which he could still be back in time for) teams like Atlanta, Buffalo, Chicago, Houston, Miami, Oakland, Tampa Bay, are likely all taking a RB. I think Love could be the 2020 starter for any of them.  

In all fairness, my rookie board seems completely out of alignment with the ADP's I see, and the consensus pick threads. I don't see any way Harmon should be a 1st rounder, and think Harry needs a perfect situation to be a 1st rounder. I also think this TE class is grossly overrated. Hockenson is really the only guy I like, and unless I was in a TE premium league I can't see him as a 1st rounder either. 

This is a really good draft to trade down, or trade forward to next year, in my opinion. Its a deep class, especially at WR, but the amount of sure things is 2 names long in my opinion. Arcega-Whiteside and Isabella, and those aren't the guys with the highest ceilings, merely the highest floors in my eyes. I'd also give serious thought to Kyler Murray as a 1st rounder, if I wasn't fully set at QB.

 
travdogg said:
He's really under the radar right now, as evidenced by not even having his own thread. If he hadn't torn his ACL in December he'd be my #1 RB. His 2017 was better than anything anyone else in this class has ever shown. There was almost zero drop off from McCaffrey to Love. 

I've still got him as a top-5 RB personally, but he's got the highest ceiling in my eyes. He does everything Henderson does, but is better between the tackles, and has/had better long speed. Fully believe he'd have been under 4.4 if healthy.
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I mostly agree although I am not sure he is better between the tackles than Henderson. To me thats a push.

No question that Love is very fast though.

A year ago Bryce love and Damien Harris were viewed as the two top RB prospects. I have kept Love in the rookie rankings poll because I haven't forgotten about him, and besides that he has been getting some votes, even fairly early on in the polls.

Watching Love a year ago I was skeptical of him, but he won me over as I watched him more.  I don't think he is as good as McCaffrey, but he is actually close. Faster that McCaffrey, not as good of footwork but Love can shift pretty good as well.

I think Henderson has better contact balance than Love does, is why I would give him the edge running inside.

 
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