jdoggydogg
Footballguy
Good work, EBF. Thanks for taking the time to write this.
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[DYNASTY] Buy Low/Sell High (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter EBF
- Start date
EBF
Footballguy
What if you knew that the public perception of the player's value was much lower than your own? For example, let's pretend that you think Chris Perry is a top ten dynasty RB and that you only have Willie Parker ranked as the 20th overall dynasty RB (I don't, but this is for argument's sake). Should you automatically trade Parker straight up for Perry? I'd argue no. Parker has a much higher perceived value by the FF public, so you should try to get more than just Perry for him (even though you actually think Perry is more valuable). It's sort of like an FF draft. You don't just take your highest-rated player with each pick. You have to factor in how long they're going to last. I have Fitzgerald rated above Bush, but I recently drafted Bush before Fitzgerald because I knew Bush had the lower chance of lasting until my next pick.
EBF
Footballguy
Benson is an interesting case. When the season ended, I fully expect him to slide and become a dynasty value pick just like Larry Johnson did after his uninspiring rookie campaign. It didn't happen. For some reason, Benson's value held pretty steady. He was going in the 3rd-4th range, which still seemed early. 5th-7th would've been much better value (which is where you can get Perry and where you used to be able to get Jordan and LJ).
EBF
Footballguy
You may have a point. In start 2 RB leagues, there is definitely a premium on RBs. A guy like Portis may be worth more than I'm guessing. Nevertheless, I really think guys like C. Johnson, Boldin, Holt, and Fitzgerald are PPR dynasty gold. They actually outscored almost all of the top RBs in 2005. Given that they can typically be had in the 8-20 range in most initial dynasty drafts, they usually represent solid value.
Pimpin Ain't Easy
Footballguy
Kind of a contradiction on your part.I think this is part of the reason you took a lot of flack for reaching for Roethlisberger in the Hyper draft.
EBF
Footballguy
Yea, but I really don't think he was going to fall much farther. In fact, I think coolnerd was set to take him before my picks on the turn. Maybe I should've traded down, but 5.03 was plenty late for me. I only wish I could've coupled him with a better vet QB.That's my one warning with Roethlisberger. I think he's going to be money, but I still think his best years are 1-2 seasons off. If you draft him as your starter, I recommend trying to pair him with a short-term vet QB like Kurt Warner or Aaron Brooks.
coolnerd
Footballguy
I had targeted Ben R. for that area because I knew he would not be there for my next turn. I don't overall, think as quite as highly of him as you do, but wanted a Qb who I expected to be a solid starter for quite a few years. BTW, this could just be off-season BS, but this hints that Steelers will pass slightly more than they have over the last couple of years.
http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/s_456801.html
Renegades of Funk
Footballguy
Seems that Michael Turner would be good candidate for the buy low dynasty list. He sure looks like a future feature back, but you will likely have to wait two more years. Most people aren't that patient so you could probably get him for a good price.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Totally different strategies.When drafting, you have a few options, either trade the pick, trade down, or draft your player. With trades, if I have a player I value higher, I will just keep him.
That of course, assumes I am not loaded at a position. Take QB, I have Leinart and Ben Roethlisberger right now, along with a couple scrubs (Orlovsky, McPherson, Nall). If Ben and leinart are both top 5 QBs, and one of the scrubs turns into a viable FF backup, I will probably trade one of my QBs. Probably for a RB/WR I value a little less, but fills a need. That might be your point.
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zamboni
Footballguy
I like both of these calls. While both are coming off of tough injuries, the door could be open for Irons, in particular, if he recovers in time. Rudi looks to be wearing down, while Watson doesn't look to be a full-time starter. Probably depends on if/how the team addresses the position in the offseason.Same for Bush, although the possible return of Fargas (UFA) will also be a big factor.
EBF
Footballguy
Some candidates:Buy Lownew-guru said:
David Garrard - Garrard is having a Pro Bowl type season, but is ranked below guys like Campbell and Kitna. He plays in an unfriendly system and may never be more than a backup for FF purposes, but good NFL QBs tend to become good FF QBs (see: Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger).
Kevin Kolb/Aaron Rodgers - Both of these guys should be starting within a year or two. If you have the depth to deal a re-tread like Jeff Garcia or Byron Leftwich for one of these two, make the trade. You're trading a long-term nothing for a long-term maybe.
Brady Quinn - One man's gain is another man's loss. The emergence of Derek Anderson has delayed the rise of Brady Quinn, making Quinn a nice value in dynasty leagues. Young QBs are always a big risk, but I like him more than some of the guys ranked ahead of him (Clemens, Delhomme, Garcia, Kitna). People are impatient and I can guarantee you that the Quinn owner in some of your leagues is sick of looking at that big 0 on his bench every week.
Kenny Irons/Chris Perry - I have to think one of these guys will get a crack at the starting job sooner or later. And while neither guy is necessarily an elite talent, all it takes is a couple of big games to vault up the dynasty rankings. It might be a good idea to try to secure this tandem in your draft if you can get them very late. These guys were both early draft picks and are still plenty young to contribute. Don't assume success though. They should be viewed as low cost high risk/high reward guys.
DeAngelo Williams - I've always felt that this guy was overrated from a talent standpoint, but he was an early draft pick and has shown enough flashes to warrant mild optimism. I would rather have him than a handful of the guys who are ranked ahead of him (Thomas Jones, Travis Henry, Jerious Norwood, and maybe Brandon Jacobs and Ryan Grant). In the right system he could be a poor man's Westbrook, but I don't know if he runs hard enough to be a starter in the league.
Sophomore WRs - There's a whole slew of these guys. The players who have already shown flashes on the field are expensive and should probably be avoided (Rice, Bowe, Calvin, Gonzalez). But the guys who had quiet rookies years offer nice upside at a low cost. I'm talking about guys like Ted Ginn, Steve Smith, Robert Meachem, Laurent Robinson, Dwayne Jarrett, and Jacoby Jones. They won't all pan out, but you have to think there's 1-2 good players in that group. Consider these guys as late round flyers in initial drafts or as throw-ins in trades. Don't bank on any of them succeeding though.
Sell High
Derek Anderson - Is he a franchise QB? Maybe. Maybe not. I don't want to be the guy to hold him and find out. Anderson already trades like a franchise QB, so why not move him? I think it's pretty unlikely that he'll ever join the elite ranks, so his value really has nowhere to go but down.
TJ Houshmandzadeh - Right now the FBGs have him ranked as the #5 dynasty WR, which is madness for a guy who has never eclipsed 1,100 yards in a season. Housh catches a lot of balls and has scored a lot of TDs the past two seasons, but he's not one of the elite receivers in the game. It's highly unlikely that his value will plummet, but he should be viewed more as a dynasty WR2 than a guy who's going to be your franchise WR. Trade accordingly.
Steve Smith - Steve Smith is a great player, but he's ranked pretty high when you consider the fact that he's been pretty useless this year. He definitely has the talent to bounce back, but the staff rankings have him ranked ahead of elite WRs who are actually producing elite numbers (Colston, Chad). I would deal Smith if I could get a guy like that in return, but don't sell him too cheap. He's still a good player.
Wes Welker - Welker is having his Brandon Stokley season. He's a good player, but a slot WR is a slot WR. I'll be surprised if he can sustain this year's production over multiple seasons.
Patrick Crayton - In my opinion, what you see is what you get with Crayton. He'll never be an elite WR or a guy who really helps your team win, so you'd be wise to deal him for a prospect with more upside. Roddy White, Chris Henry, Anthony Gonzalez, Mark Clayton, James Jones, Ted Ginn, Laurent Robinson, and Jacoby Jones are all more valuable than Crayton.
I was also tempted to put Terrell Owens on my sell high list since he's so old, but I suppose I can understand the argument that he's a difference maker in the short term. Then again, that's the same argument all of the Marvin/Alexander/Barber owners were using when those guys were getting long in the tooth. TO could potentially play at a high level for another 3 years, but he's not a slam dunk over guys like Colston, Calvin, Boldin, and Holmes IMO.
az_prof
Footballguy
I think you are totally off on Quinn/Anderson--backing the wrong horse. You say Anderson can do nothing but go down and he will never join the "elite." In my league he is the sixth highest QB right now, just two points behind Favre and three behind Brees--so effectively he is right there at the four spot. Doesn't that make him elite? If Quinn EVER has a year as good as Anderson he will be lucky. Maybe Quinn will be as good as Anderson, but the odds are that he won't, just statistically. And when you throw in that he is one of the most overrated and overhyped QBs in a long time...well, I don't like the value there.
Garrard won't be cheap anymore.
I would wait on Rodgers as I think Favre will be back again next year and one good game isn't enough to sell someone on me, especially when he has great weapons.
Kolb? Not unless you want to wait a few more years as McNabb will most likely be back next year despite all the smoke.
I like Irons as a flyer but not Perry; he has talent but a guy who has been injured as much as him will never be healthy long.
Deangelo Williams has had opportunity and hasn't produced. Usually RBs show promise early on...so I am not buying.
I like all the sophomore WRs you mention.
RBs I would throw into the mix? Pierre Thomas (Stecker is like 31 and will Deuce be able to come back?). Ahmad Bradshaw: Ward and Droughns are most likely gone to FA and that leaves just the oft injured and frequently fumbling Jacobs in front of Bradshaw who had a great preseason.
Garrard won't be cheap anymore.
I would wait on Rodgers as I think Favre will be back again next year and one good game isn't enough to sell someone on me, especially when he has great weapons.
Kolb? Not unless you want to wait a few more years as McNabb will most likely be back next year despite all the smoke.
I like Irons as a flyer but not Perry; he has talent but a guy who has been injured as much as him will never be healthy long.
Deangelo Williams has had opportunity and hasn't produced. Usually RBs show promise early on...so I am not buying.
I like all the sophomore WRs you mention.
RBs I would throw into the mix? Pierre Thomas (Stecker is like 31 and will Deuce be able to come back?). Ahmad Bradshaw: Ward and Droughns are most likely gone to FA and that leaves just the oft injured and frequently fumbling Jacobs in front of Bradshaw who had a great preseason.
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AtomicDogg97
Footballguy
Does Drew Stanton have a chance to start for the Lions next year?
EBF
Footballguy
You're missing on the point on Quinn/Anderson. I'm not saying that Quinn is better than Anderson. However, Anderson is ranked as the 8th overall dynasty QB by FBG. The guys ahead of him are named Brady, Manning, Romo, Palmer, Brees, Hasselbeck, and Roethlisberger. I think all of those guys are better than Anderson and I think it's pretty unlikely that he'll ever get higher in the rankings than he is right now. That's the definition of a sell high. Quinn, on the other hand, is ranked as the QB26 in the current staff rankings. Sooner or later he will get a chance to be a starting QB in the NFL. When that happens, his value will go up. So basically his value has nowhere to go but up. That's the definition of a buy low.
Whether or not Anderson is better than Quinn is irrelevant to this discussion.
As for your assertion that "Quinn is one of the most overrated and overhyped QBs in a long time," I don't agree. He was a late first round pick after a very good college career. Notre Dame was top 20 type team when Quinn was their starter. They were one of the worst major D1 teams in the country after he left. He may or may not eventually become a franchise QB in the NFL, but there's little evidence to support the claim that he's one of the most overrated QBs in the game.
Garrard - Currently ranked as the QB20 by the staff. I think he could be a fringe top 10 guy next year, so I think there's clearly room for him to move up and very little chance of him moving down.
Kolb - Every good young QB eventually gets a chance to start. I'm recommending these players for dynasty leagues. Not redrafts. Kolb will still be a talented young QB even if McNabb sticks around.
Perry - That logic is the reason why he's available for cheap. There was once a time when DeShaun Foster, Fred Taylor, and Justin Fargas were also considered injuries waiting to happen. Chris Perry is a first round RB who potentially has enough talent to be a starter in the NFL. Considering that he's (un)ranked below dozens of scrubs who will never be useful in any way, I'd say he's a good buy low opportunity. He doesn't have to become a perennial stud to give you a good return on your investment. All he has to do is get healthy and have a few good games. I think that's within the realm of possibility.
DeAngelo - I'm by no means a huge fan, but he's flashed enough big play ability to warrant some optimism. I think he should be about 5-6 spots higher in the staff rankings than where he is right now. He has better long-term prospects than someone like Thomas Jones.
EBF
Footballguy
Assuming that the Lions don't add a big-time free agent or draft pick QB in the offseason, I figure Stanton will eventually get a shot. They're not going to win a championship with Kitna and they took Stanton too early in the draft not to see what they have in him. The only question is when. Will he get a shot next season or will he have to wait until 2009? It's tough to say and it probably depends on how many games the Lions win. If they limp out of the gates next season then they might make a change.
maxwelledison
Footballguy
I hear what you are saying about Derek Anderson having nowhere to go but down but even if he drops a few spots he is still a top-ten QB. That is not a bad return on a guy who was likely very cheap to acquire. More importantly for this discussion is that I am not sure what you can get for a guy like that...a lot of people are probably thinking this is a flash-in-the-pan type year and are unwilling to part with anything particularly interesting to get him. If you can get a solid starter at WR for him I would do it but I don't know if he has that kind of market appeal. The shark move may be to move another QB with more perceived value (Romo, for example) and really bulk up another position and then roll with Anderson as your QB. This is riskier, but I happen to like DA and he actually has a decent pedigree.
As far as DeAngelo is concerned I still think that he will be a player. Anyone that says he has gotten his chance is either not paying attention or is an immediate member of John Fox's family.
As far as DeAngelo is concerned I still think that he will be a player. Anyone that says he has gotten his chance is either not paying attention or is an immediate member of John Fox's family.
EBF
Footballguy
I think the real shark move with Anderson is to package him with a minor asset for a genuine franchise QB like Romo or Roethlisberger. You know those guys are going to be good for you going forward, whereas Anderson seems more likely to regress IMO. The one thing Anderson has going for him is that he's young and it's his first years a starter, so it's conceivable that he'll actually improve. But that's not something I'm comfortable banking on. My personal belief is that he's merely an average talent. Time will tell.
Larry Johnson was born 11/19/1979 as he inches ever closer to 30 years old. I'd say pick up Kolby Smith now as he's shown he can be effective. With a revamped offensive line, new offensive coordinator, another receiver, and a more mature Croyle I think he can be viable.
That said, when I think of a buy low/sell high discussion at this point in the season it's almost for waiver fodder as most leagues have disallowed trades until the offseason. It's going to come down to the size of your league but I'd focus on players with a chance at better fates next year:
Bryant Johnson - Probably going elsewhere with more playing time. Don't see him as a WR1 but he should get more looks elsewhere.
Sinorice Moss/Steve Smith NYG - One of these guys will start opposite Burress. Down the stretch with Shockey and Burress hurting we could see one of them really start to come on.
Jacoby Jones - If the Texan offense continues to improve it should support two talented WR's.
Chad Jackson - Many if's here but he shouldn't be on many waiver wires.
I doubt as many RB's are on waivers as WR's in most formats but as this year proved you may as well hoard and hope. Sproles, Wolfe, Bradshaw may be on waivers. Doubt they'll do much but you never know. Definately not a Rudi fan and Watson isn't the answer so Perry/Irons will get a shot. I could see them bringing in another RB though given their injury history.
Along with Larry Johnson it seems like a large crop of top RB's are moving into their late 20's and almost hitting 30. Plan for your window this offseason. I wouldn't imagine that LT2, LJ, Westbrook, and FWP have a large window left at the top of the RB1 heap.
That said, when I think of a buy low/sell high discussion at this point in the season it's almost for waiver fodder as most leagues have disallowed trades until the offseason. It's going to come down to the size of your league but I'd focus on players with a chance at better fates next year:
Bryant Johnson - Probably going elsewhere with more playing time. Don't see him as a WR1 but he should get more looks elsewhere.
Sinorice Moss/Steve Smith NYG - One of these guys will start opposite Burress. Down the stretch with Shockey and Burress hurting we could see one of them really start to come on.
Jacoby Jones - If the Texan offense continues to improve it should support two talented WR's.
Chad Jackson - Many if's here but he shouldn't be on many waiver wires.
I doubt as many RB's are on waivers as WR's in most formats but as this year proved you may as well hoard and hope. Sproles, Wolfe, Bradshaw may be on waivers. Doubt they'll do much but you never know. Definately not a Rudi fan and Watson isn't the answer so Perry/Irons will get a shot. I could see them bringing in another RB though given their injury history.
Along with Larry Johnson it seems like a large crop of top RB's are moving into their late 20's and almost hitting 30. Plan for your window this offseason. I wouldn't imagine that LT2, LJ, Westbrook, and FWP have a large window left at the top of the RB1 heap.
Captain Spaulding
Footballguy
The Michael Bush owner in my league won't part with him for anything but rediculous. I personally thing he's overvalued in most fantasy leagues at the moment, since he hasn't even seen the field yet. Owners are really scared to part with him and everyone wants to get him (so it seems). I think that is usually the case with the no-trackrecord but "potential stud" situations.
yeah its weird, i dont have any intention of letting him go unless the offer is really high, i definately over value him...i would consider tossing him into a package to get a stud, but definately not for any prospects or anything unproven
cstu
Footballguy
It's not smart trade young potential starting RB's without getting a lot in return. I haven't shopped him or received any offers but I don't think I'd part with him for less than a Donald Driver-type WR.
FantasyTrader
Footballguy
I've been trying to "sell high" on TO for the last two offseasons. Every time I offer him up I get low-balled in return with responses like "He's too old - The bottom's about to fall out" or "He's a head case", etc. All true mind you.
Maybe other's experiences have been different with TO than mine but his market value isn't anywhere near his real value. Two years now I've shopped him hard and 2 straight years he's made me glad nobody came along with a real offer.
I think some guys, you're just in a situation where you'll have them until the wheels fall off. TO. Steve Smith. Tony Gonzalez, etc. Nobody wants to pay current market value especially for WR's and TE's. I think the receiver market is as flooded right now as it has been in the last 10 years with solid young "maybe possibly could-be the next big thing" guys i.e. Cotchery, Berrian, Mark Clayton, Curry, Reggie Williams or any of the other 43 Jaguar/Titan WR's, etc. Not all will pan out but ALL are doing just enough that owners are hanging on.
Maybe other's experiences have been different with TO than mine but his market value isn't anywhere near his real value. Two years now I've shopped him hard and 2 straight years he's made me glad nobody came along with a real offer.
I think some guys, you're just in a situation where you'll have them until the wheels fall off. TO. Steve Smith. Tony Gonzalez, etc. Nobody wants to pay current market value especially for WR's and TE's. I think the receiver market is as flooded right now as it has been in the last 10 years with solid young "maybe possibly could-be the next big thing" guys i.e. Cotchery, Berrian, Mark Clayton, Curry, Reggie Williams or any of the other 43 Jaguar/Titan WR's, etc. Not all will pan out but ALL are doing just enough that owners are hanging on.
Captain Spaulding
Footballguy
I personally don't see any of those guys on your list with stud potential down the road. I'm a Berrian owner, and doubt he'll ever see the top 10 WR anywhere in his future.My "next big thing" WR would be:
Bowe
Ginn (Miami needs supporting cast as well)
Gonzalez (Indy)
Marshall
Hackett
Ginn (because Miami can't move the ball) and Hackett (injuries) I think you can get decent value for at the moment. The other 3 you'll have to reach and overpay to get them.
FUBAR
Footballguy
You're right and I like your list a lot, but FT makes a valid point. Believe it or not, I wasn't able to acquire Cotchery when I offered TO for him and the best young WRs I was offered were Gonzalez (Indy), Meachem, and Berrien. I was laughed at when I enquired about Cal-Jo.
Captain Spaulding
Footballguy
If you're a TO owner, just keep him in the starting lineup until he stops producing and ride him out into the sunset. He has been a trading nightmare and its nearly impossible to get value that TO owners feel is fair. For 3 seasons or so, other owners didn't want to take the risk on TO because of his temperment and didn't know if he would quit on his team, be suspended by coach (Reid), not try 100% etc. Now he's in the "too old" risk catagory. Just take his points and laugh at others...that is all you can do, or keep offerring up what you feel are fair deals and don't be disappointed in all of the declines. You may find a taker eventually.
