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Dynasty buy low (1 Viewer)

T

Texas989

Footballguy
I know there is already a regular buy low sell high thread. But that seems more themed around this year. So I thought I would start with a dynasty buy low. Some guys to trade for that you think teams will be willing to part with for cheap and will break out in 2013.

 
I traded for/claimed - Ingram, Vincent Brown, Casey, Gettis, Doug Baldwin, Clyde Gates, Peerman

I tried trading for, but their owners are optimistic too (might not always be the case though) - Tannehill, Taylor Thompson, Rudolph

Worth a shot, but doubt it - Spiller, Hillman, Lamar Miller, Ben Tate

ETA - good call on Marvin Jones

 
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Qb-Nick Foles- Vick is done and the Eagles have no other option so he will get every opportunity to become a starter and unless he is Russell bad he should be the starter week one next year.

Rb-David Wilson- Coughlin will bring him along slowly but I expect him to be used more and more once he cuts down on his mistakes and he has a very high skill. level.

Wr- Kenny Britt- Not sure how cheap you can get him but the injuries should have lowered his value some and I think he will be a top 10 Wr next year.

Wr-Sidney Rice- I would buy him ASAP because he is getting better each week and I expect his value to only go up

Te- Fred Davis- He is a free agent and for whatever reason the skins seemed to use him less this year.

 
I bought low on mark Ingram, Daryl Richardson via trades. Also picked up Dwyer and danario alexander off waivers for $1 each.

Aaron Hernandez, cam newton, mike Wallace, Greg Jennings, Dwayne bowe, jamaal Charles, Ryan Matthews all seem to be good but low options rt now as well.

 
Great thread . . .

will be interesting to see who gets the #2 slot in Cincy - Jones or Sanu??

also, will Quick be given a shot in STL now that Givens has messed up (deactivated last week)?

we will see . . .

 
I like Pierre Garcon and Danny Amendola. To me, Amendola is a high WR2 and I still see him ranked in the low 30s in dynasty rankings. He's a legitimate stud who is going to have some 100 catch seasons. Garcon is relatively cheap due to the injury. I suspect he'll end the year poorly as well due to not being 100%. But going forward, he is in a fantastic situation. The Redskins are hurting in terms of draft assets and cap space. They aren't going to be able to add any major weapons that threaten his status as the #1 WR. And I like the #1 WR in a Shanahan/RG3 offense.

 
Is Eli Manning worth a look? Think he bounces back from this tough stretch this year and has a big 2013. Has so many weapons I can't see him struggling much longer.

 
'GordonGekko said:
'Texas989 said:
I know there is already a regular buy low sell high thread. But that seems more themed around this year. So I thought I would start with a dynasty buy low. Some guys to trade for that you think teams will be willing to part with for cheap and will break out in 2013.
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Tony RomoSam BradfordPeyton HillisRomo has really stunk it up this year and given his age, his contract status and the giant expectations in Texas, I'd say he picked the wrong year to have a down season. I just have this hunch, if Alex Smith implodes in the playoffs, that Harbaugh will gun for Romo, if so, I think he can fix him. I think Bradford is criminally underrated. Fisher always builds fundamentally sound teams. I think he will progress slower than some of his peers, but I think his actual upside is greater for the long haul. Bradford is one of those guys who just knows how to slide off a hit and take a step here versus there to not get crushed. He's the kind of player that sneaks up on you before you realize he's played 15-20 years in the league. Hillis needs a new address and sometimes as a RB, that's all you need. Deep shot into the dark - Darius ReynaudThe WR/RB/KR/Special Teamer for the Titans.Can give you a little of everything and has a legitimate 1st and 2nd gear and maybe a pinch of a third gear when needed. Given Randall Cobb's sucess, I think a lot of teams are going to look for a Cobb-lite. A smart saavy player with good physical metrics for the slot. I can see Belichick liking him and using him. Given an opportunity in the right system, I think this guy can be a weapon for 2-3 solid years. For 2013, for fantasy, Reynaud will likely keep his dual WR/RB status, so that ups his value a little for fantasy owners.
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I'll happily fade all of these (maybe not Bradford).
 
My dynasty leagues already had the trade deadline, so these are guys that should be on the wire in many leagues:

Tebow

Kaepernick

Dwyer - prob not avail in many leagues now

Bilal Powell

Bernard Pierce - bigger role next year, maybe time-share 2014. Ravens are working him in every game.

Edelman

McCluster - in PPR if he is listed as a WR

 
Ahmad Bradshaw NYG, Jonathan Stewart CAR, Chris Ivory NO, MJD JAX, Bilal Powell NYJ, Cedric Peerman CIN

Kenny Britt TEN, Brian Hartline MIA, Laurent Robinson JAX

Most of these guys can be had for cheap and provide some upside compared to their cost

:popcorn:

 
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'doubletrouble said:
Ahmad Bradshaw NYG, Jonathan Stewart CAR, Chris Ivory NO, MJD JAX, Bilal Powell NYJ, Cedric Peerman CINKenny Britt TEN, Brian Hartline MIA, Laurent Robinson JAXMost of these guys can be had for cheap and provide some upside compared to their cost :popcorn:
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You just nominated half the guys on your roster. C'mon man! :banned:
 
Jermichael Finley - has shown elite talent, been injured, been pissing off A-rod with dropping catches if both of those change his value goes up, way up.

 
Emmanuel Sanders- I'd put likelihood of him starting next year around 80%. Can't see them paying Wallace after paying AB. They won't sign a front line walk in starter in FA. They could use their #1 on a WR but they have other needs and not sure a rookie would beat out Sanders anyway.

Julian Edelman- for many of the reasons above but he's older than Sanders and I could easily see the Pats bringing in a replacement so I don't have the same confidence he ends up starting or being the #1 slot guy in NE. Still the upside is huge, he was starting over Welker to begin the season and the game he broke his hand he had had 10 touches at around half so they have shown signs of belief in him. Worth a gamble on the expectation Welker does not return and hope he fills his role.

Colin Kaepernick- Alex Smith has played decent at times but he has only $1million of his contract guaranteed after this season. In short his contract was basically a one year deal for the player but designed to let the 49'ers move on after just one year. If Smith fails to advance the team in the playoffs and/or Kaepernick gets his chance and shines the 49'ers might be inclined to move on. Lot's of if's here but for who offers such immense upside I think worth a shot.

Ivory- restricted FA so good chance he moves and finally gets a shot.

Santonio Holmes- He'll be 29 next year so should still have a few years left. He was actually playing ok this year before he got hurt but his value right now is in the toilet so cost should be cheap. Got to figure this whole Tebow distraction will be gone from Jets next year. Think he has a chance to be a solid WR2 for another few years.

 
'bengalbuck said:
I like Pierre Garcon and Danny Amendola. To me, Amendola is a high WR2 and I still see him ranked in the low 30s in dynasty rankings. He's a legitimate stud who is going to have some 100 catch seasons. Garcon is relatively cheap due to the injury. I suspect he'll end the year poorly as well due to not being 100%. But going forward, he is in a fantastic situation. The Redskins are hurting in terms of draft assets and cap space. They aren't going to be able to add any major weapons that threaten his status as the #1 WR. And I like the #1 WR in a Shanahan/RG3 offense.
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I just traded for Amendola. I think your assessment is really close. No way is there 30 wideouts I'd take over him. There isn't a single wideout from this class I'd rather have. Other than AJ and Julio there isn't a wideout from last year either. He's still quite young too.
 
Donnie Avery is only like 27 years old as well. I could actually see him solidifying that job over this season and having a better season next year as Luck continues to feast on defenses.

 
'doubletrouble said:
Ahmad Bradshaw NYG, Jonathan Stewart CAR, Chris Ivory NO, MJD JAX, Bilal Powell NYJ, Cedric Peerman CINKenny Britt TEN, Brian Hartline MIA, Laurent Robinson JAXMost of these guys can be had for cheap and provide some upside compared to their cost :popcorn:
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I just traded Jonathan Stewart away for Tony Gonzalez. One week in, I'm thrilled with the move.
 
'Uncle Buck said:
Jermichael Finley - has shown elite talent, been injured, been pissing off A-rod with dropping catches if both of those change his value goes up, way up.
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Uhhhh... no.He doesn't have elite talent. He's been mediocre the last two years even when healthy. He's a UFA, so chances are his situation is gonna be waaaaaay worse than it is right now moving forward. Unless you get him free off of the scrap heap, you're overpaying. He's garbage.
 
One guy at each position...

QB Russell Wilson, Seahawks - Quietly having a very good rookie year and won't break the bank ala Luck/Griffin. The problem with these young QBs is that you never really know which ones will take the next step, so maybe you're just wasting currency on a future backup for your FF team.

RB Jonathan Stewart, Panthers - I just gave up a top 3 rookie pick for him. I wouldn't call that buying low. I would call it overpaying, but if you can get him for a late 1st round rookie pick then do it. I sincerely believe he's a better talent than any RB who's likely to declare for this upcoming draft. He is still quite young and I think he can have 3-4 good seasons as a starter.

WR Michael Floyd, Cardinals - Not producing, but you can't blame him. Fitz and Roberts are too good and the QB situation is dismal. Perfect storm to suppress Floyd's value and keep his cost down. I would consider moving someone like Josh Gordon or Kendall Wright for Floyd + value if you can get that. The only problem I've encountered is that Floyd's owners aren't selling. I must've sent offers for him to 4 or 5 different owners across my leagues and been knocked back every single time.

TE Jermaine Gresham, Bengals - Just 24 years old and quietly on pace for a very good season. I wouldn't pay through the nose for a TE who isn't Graham or Gronk, but this guy might be available for a reasonable price if you have a need at this position.

 
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'EBF said:
RB Jonathan Stewart, Panthers - I just gave up a top 3 rookie pick for him. I wouldn't call that buying low. I would call it overpaying, but if you can get him for a late 1st round rookie pick then do it. I sincerely believe he's a better talent than any RB who's likely to declare for this upcoming draft. He is still quite young and I think he can have 3-4 good seasons as a starter.
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Fully agree with you on Stewart's talent; there aren't more than a handful of guys in the NFL with more ability.I've sold on Stewart this year, though, because I don't see his situation allowing him to be a reliable fantasy starter any time soon. That offense is in shambles. The line has declined badly. The receiving talent is below average. They're multiple good drafts and FA classes away from being able to provide a consistent RB1 IMO. Also DeAngelo and (to a lesser extent) Tolbert are both too good to just plant on the bench totally, and who knows if / when they go elsewhere.Plus, Cam. No RB is likely to grab a ton of TDs with him there running around in the red zone. Also, Cam's a shotgun QB, which isn't going to change. Stewart is looking at getting a major chunk of his touches on draws, read option, and misdirection from here out, and he's an old school, power-I, between the tackles bowling ball.I was happy getting RB2 prices for Stewart, which was pretty easy in most of my leagues. I agree that if you can get him for a late 1st I'd still be buying, but I am not a fan of this year's rookie class at all.
 
Supporting cast and scheme can change really quickly in the NFL. With the season Carolina is having, I would expect heads to roll.

D-Will has been a persistent thorn in Stewart's side, but it simply can't stay like that forever. He is four years older. Something's gotta give.

I feel like now is the best window to buy Stewart in his whole career. I would not give up a star player for him, but a pick or a prospect? Sure.

 
I'm going with Reggie Wayne. Looks to have enought left in the tank to be solid for another 2-3 years and you can get him at a price so much lower than his production right now, especially if he's not on a contending team.

 
'EBF said:
Supporting cast and scheme can change really quickly in the NFL. With the season Carolina is having, I would expect heads to roll. D-Will has been a persistent thorn in Stewart's side, but it simply can't stay like that forever. He is four years older. Something's gotta give. I feel like now is the best window to buy Stewart in his whole career. I would not give up a star player for him, but a pick or a prospect? Sure.
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Pretty much agree with all of this. Just having a hard time seeing Cam Newton and a top-10 fantasy RB on the same team the next few years I guess. Whoever they bring in is likely to be building around the franchise QB rather than establishing a power ground attack. Even if Stewart gets a true feature back percentage of touches will it be enough if the system doesn't play to his strengths, the team sucks and is playing from behind, and Cam is taking half the rushing scores?
 
'johnadams said:
I'm going with Reggie Wayne. Looks to have enought left in the tank to be solid for another 2-3 years and you can get him at a price so much lower than his production right now, especially if he's not on a contending team.
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:goodposting:I've made a killing sending crappy prospects and non-premium picks for aging studs over the years. Gore, McGahee, Jackson at RB fit this profile too. Manning at QB. Gonzo. Of course if those guys are starting on playoff teams, you're not getting them, but if they're not...
 
'Coeur de Lion said:
'EBF said:
Supporting cast and scheme can change really quickly in the NFL. With the season Carolina is having, I would expect heads to roll. D-Will has been a persistent thorn in Stewart's side, but it simply can't stay like that forever. He is four years older. Something's gotta give. I feel like now is the best window to buy Stewart in his whole career. I would not give up a star player for him, but a pick or a prospect? Sure.
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Pretty much agree with all of this. Just having a hard time seeing Cam Newton and a top-10 fantasy RB on the same team the next few years I guess. Whoever they bring in is likely to be building around the franchise QB rather than establishing a power ground attack. Even if Stewart gets a true feature back percentage of touches will it be enough if the system doesn't play to his strengths, the team sucks and is playing from behind, and Cam is taking half the rushing scores?
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Well the beauty of it is that he doesn't command a top 10 RB price. I've seen some people suggest that he's only worth a 2nd round rookie pick. Even if you can get him for a late 1st, I think he's worth more than the average prospect you'd be looking at in that range this year.
 
'EBF said:
'Coeur de Lion said:
'EBF said:
Supporting cast and scheme can change really quickly in the NFL. With the season Carolina is having, I would expect heads to roll. D-Will has been a persistent thorn in Stewart's side, but it simply can't stay like that forever. He is four years older. Something's gotta give. I feel like now is the best window to buy Stewart in his whole career. I would not give up a star player for him, but a pick or a prospect? Sure.
Click to expand...
Pretty much agree with all of this. Just having a hard time seeing Cam Newton and a top-10 fantasy RB on the same team the next few years I guess. Whoever they bring in is likely to be building around the franchise QB rather than establishing a power ground attack. Even if Stewart gets a true feature back percentage of touches will it be enough if the system doesn't play to his strengths, the team sucks and is playing from behind, and Cam is taking half the rushing scores?
Click to expand...
Well the beauty of it is that he doesn't command a top 10 RB price. I've seen some people suggest that he's only worth a 2nd round rookie pick. Even if you can get him for a late 1st, I think he's worth more than the average prospect you'd be looking at in that range this year.
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Not meaning to get too trade specific here, but thought it timely Was offered Hillman for Stewart. How do you rank those two?
 
'theprince said:
'EBF said:
'Coeur de Lion said:
'EBF said:
Supporting cast and scheme can change really quickly in the NFL. With the season Carolina is having, I would expect heads to roll. D-Will has been a persistent thorn in Stewart's side, but it simply can't stay like that forever. He is four years older. Something's gotta give. I feel like now is the best window to buy Stewart in his whole career. I would not give up a star player for him, but a pick or a prospect? Sure.
Click to expand...
Pretty much agree with all of this. Just having a hard time seeing Cam Newton and a top-10 fantasy RB on the same team the next few years I guess. Whoever they bring in is likely to be building around the franchise QB rather than establishing a power ground attack. Even if Stewart gets a true feature back percentage of touches will it be enough if the system doesn't play to his strengths, the team sucks and is playing from behind, and Cam is taking half the rushing scores?
Click to expand...
Well the beauty of it is that he doesn't command a top 10 RB price. I've seen some people suggest that he's only worth a 2nd round rookie pick. Even if you can get him for a late 1st, I think he's worth more than the average prospect you'd be looking at in that range this year.
Click to expand...
Not meaning to get too trade specific here, but thought it timely Was offered Hillman for Stewart. How do you rank those two?
Click to expand...
I'd rather have Stewart. There's a chance that Hillman could blow up ala LeSean McCoy and make you regret it, but give me the proven commodity with elite physical tools over the third round scat back.
 
'EBF said:
'Coeur de Lion said:
'EBF said:
Supporting cast and scheme can change really quickly in the NFL. With the season Carolina is having, I would expect heads to roll. D-Will has been a persistent thorn in Stewart's side, but it simply can't stay like that forever. He is four years older. Something's gotta give. I feel like now is the best window to buy Stewart in his whole career. I would not give up a star player for him, but a pick or a prospect? Sure.
Click to expand...
Pretty much agree with all of this. Just having a hard time seeing Cam Newton and a top-10 fantasy RB on the same team the next few years I guess. Whoever they bring in is likely to be building around the franchise QB rather than establishing a power ground attack. Even if Stewart gets a true feature back percentage of touches will it be enough if the system doesn't play to his strengths, the team sucks and is playing from behind, and Cam is taking half the rushing scores?
Click to expand...
Well the beauty of it is that he doesn't command a top 10 RB price. I've seen some people suggest that he's only worth a 2nd round rookie pick. Even if you can get him for a late 1st, I think he's worth more than the average prospect you'd be looking at in that range this year.
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Obviously depends what you're paying. I sold him for Steve Johnson in a league where I was WR-needy and most teams start 4 WRs vs 2 RBs. I got Chris Johnson for Stew and a late 2013 1st in another right after they announced that he'd be featured exclusively. So, RB2 prices I'd say. For a guy whose production is likely to range from RB4 (he's currently 38th) to RB2 levels. If you really think you can get him for a late 1st or even less, good luck with that I guess.
 
I hated to do it but I just traded Stew for Andre Johnson. My team is in win now mode and I was real deep at RB and needed another top WR.

 
Anyone taking a chance on Phillip Rivers? The offensive line has been pretty terrible this year and his weapons should take a step up in the future...

 
'cusefan115 said:
Anyone taking a chance on Phillip Rivers? The offensive line has been pretty terrible this year and his weapons should take a step up in the future...
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I thought about it... but man this guy turns the ball over a ton. He has the weapons to throw to but I feel like he can be very inconsistent. Rather take a chance on Locker, Kaep since Smith has an out in his contract after this year, or Eli.
 
QB-Joe Webb

RB-I. Pead

RB-J. Charles

WR-AJ Jenkins

WR-Ryan Broyles

WR-TJ Graham

TE-DJ Williams

 
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'cusefan115 said:
Anyone taking a chance on Phillip Rivers? The offensive line has been pretty terrible this year and his weapons should take a step up in the future...
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I'm worried about the ship being blown up and his eventual successor being drafted sometime on day 2. From my experience average starting QB's with early round prospects behind them are very difficult to sell unless the guy who drafted his successor has QB problems.
 
'MAC_32 said:
'cusefan115 said:
Anyone taking a chance on Phillip Rivers? The offensive line has been pretty terrible this year and his weapons should take a step up in the future...
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I'm worried about the ship being blown up and his eventual successor being drafted sometime on day 2. From my experience average starting QB's with early round prospects behind them are very difficult to sell unless the guy who drafted his successor has QB problems.
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Darn. Judging by the reaction in this thread, I might have jumped the gun. I figured the new coach might rally around him. But I guess 30 was about the age when they draft kolb in Philly too. They will probably start making plans to develop a backup.
 
'Uncle Buck said:
Jermichael Finley - has shown elite talent, been injured, been pissing off A-rod with dropping catches if both of those change his value goes up, way up.
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I don't think his value can go "way-up" without an injury to Cobb. He could be better and more consistent... but I think there is a ceiling here.
 
'GordonGekko said:
'Texas989 said:
I know there is already a regular buy low sell high thread. But that seems more themed around this year. So I thought I would start with a dynasty buy low. Some guys to trade for that you think teams will be willing to part with for cheap and will break out in 2013.
Click to expand...
Tony RomoSam BradfordPeyton HillisRomo has really stunk it up this year and given his age, his contract status and the giant expectations in Texas, I'd say he picked the wrong year to have a down season. I just have this hunch, if Alex Smith implodes in the playoffs, that Harbaugh will gun for Romo, if so, I think he can fix him. I think Bradford is criminally underrated. Fisher always builds fundamentally sound teams. I think he will progress slower than some of his peers, but I think his actual upside is greater for the long haul. Bradford is one of those guys who just knows how to slide off a hit and take a step here versus there to not get crushed. He's the kind of player that sneaks up on you before you realize he's played 15-20 years in the league. Hillis needs a new address and sometimes as a RB, that's all you need. Deep shot into the dark - Darius ReynaudThe WR/RB/KR/Special Teamer for the Titans.Can give you a little of everything and has a legitimate 1st and 2nd gear and maybe a pinch of a third gear when needed. Given Randall Cobb's sucess, I think a lot of teams are going to look for a Cobb-lite. A smart saavy player with good physical metrics for the slot. I can see Belichick liking him and using him. Given an opportunity in the right system, I think this guy can be a weapon for 2-3 solid years. For 2013, for fantasy, Reynaud will likely keep his dual WR/RB status, so that ups his value a little for fantasy owners.
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Romo to SF? no way, they have their QB of the future, his name is Colin K
 
I think tomorrow may be the game to see whether or not lance Dunbar is a buy low. Likely to have a decent workload and a Cowboys beat writer I follow @BryanBroaddus has good things to say about his explosiveness. Maybe on Waivers so a very good add if he's there.

I've added Ben Tate this week, gave up Dwyer to get him but I think Tate is now completely off the radar, especially if he's not on the Foster roster, as was the case in my league

 
Larry Fitzgerald's value is about as low as can be for a Hall of Fame talent in the prime of his career. He's just as talented as AJ Green. Fact.

 
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