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Dynasty DL Rankings (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter BearsFan
- Start date
Tick
Footballguy
Some discussion here based on Jene's week 15 dynasty tiering article:
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=577607
What happens to Mario Williams?
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=577607
What happens to Mario Williams?
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
Working under similar assumptions to the LB tiers I posted last month (little more than 1 year window, valuing upside over stability, a given tier may be spread over 2-3 groups below), here's a first pass look at the DL tiers for 2011. Sorry for the lack of detail on these, but I think the discussion that comes afterwards helps me to drill down the arguments better, so fire away with questions, concerns over omissions, etc if you have them.
Looks a little thin, but there are over 40 names (excluding the youth, high upside watch tier). Anyone not listed is a player I consider a marginal DL3 roster in most leagues or worse (assuming I've not left out a name or three).
Stud DL1
Justin Tuck, Trent Cole, Jared Allen, Julius Peppers, Terrell Suggs, Charles Johnson
DL1/DL2 Downside
Robert Mathis, Osi Umenyiora, Mario Williams, Carlos Dunlap
DL2/DL1 Upside
Jason Pierre-Paul, Ray Edwards, Michael Johnson, Chris Long
DL2/Limited DL1 Upside
Darnell Dockett, Chris Clemons, Matt Shaughnessy, Matt Roth, Lamarr Houston, Jeremy Mincey, Will Smith, Kroy Biermann, Justin Smith
DL2 Limbo (DL1 Upside, DL3- Downside)
Aaron Kampman, Everette Brown, Brandon Graham, Mathias Kiwanuka, Jason Babin, Kyle Vanden Bosch, Cliff Avril, Derrick Morgan
DL2-/DL3
Israel Idonije, Dwight Freeney, John Abraham, Calais Campbell, Glenn Dorsey, Jared Odrick
Youth/High Upside DL4
Greg Hardy, Corey Wootton, Austen Lane, Lawrence Sidbury, George Selvie
Rosterable DT (DL3 or better)
Haloti Ngata, Ndumakong Suh, Kyle Williams, Richard Seymour, Sedrick Ellis, BJ Raji, Gerald McCoy, Antonio Garay, Jason Jones
Looks a little thin, but there are over 40 names (excluding the youth, high upside watch tier). Anyone not listed is a player I consider a marginal DL3 roster in most leagues or worse (assuming I've not left out a name or three).
Stud DL1
Justin Tuck, Trent Cole, Jared Allen, Julius Peppers, Terrell Suggs, Charles Johnson
DL1/DL2 Downside
Robert Mathis, Osi Umenyiora, Mario Williams, Carlos Dunlap
DL2/DL1 Upside
Jason Pierre-Paul, Ray Edwards, Michael Johnson, Chris Long
DL2/Limited DL1 Upside
Darnell Dockett, Chris Clemons, Matt Shaughnessy, Matt Roth, Lamarr Houston, Jeremy Mincey, Will Smith, Kroy Biermann, Justin Smith
DL2 Limbo (DL1 Upside, DL3- Downside)
Aaron Kampman, Everette Brown, Brandon Graham, Mathias Kiwanuka, Jason Babin, Kyle Vanden Bosch, Cliff Avril, Derrick Morgan
DL2-/DL3
Israel Idonije, Dwight Freeney, John Abraham, Calais Campbell, Glenn Dorsey, Jared Odrick
Youth/High Upside DL4
Greg Hardy, Corey Wootton, Austen Lane, Lawrence Sidbury, George Selvie
Rosterable DT (DL3 or better)
Haloti Ngata, Ndumakong Suh, Kyle Williams, Richard Seymour, Sedrick Ellis, BJ Raji, Gerald McCoy, Antonio Garay, Jason Jones
Cipherchris
Footballguy
Is Mathis really statistically better than Freeney?
Frank Costanza's Lawyer
Footballguy
No William Hayes? You referenced Hayes when discussing Babin in December in the Dynasty DE/LB tiers thread:
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Jene Bramel
Footballguy
I think Shaughnessy probably has the most raw upside for now, but there are still some unknowns on the defensive coaching staff. I wouldn't expect a huge change in philosophy, but the new staff will probably have their own ideas on how to use/rotate Shaughnessy, Scott, Seymour, Houston, Wimbley, Groves and any new bodies.
If you were to write down a scouting report for a 3-4 end who could put up elite statistical production, a 6'7", 290lb player that can get off the line, beat double teams and close down the pocket would be exactly what you'd want. Again, I'm not saying that he's the second coming of Bruce Smith, but there's no reason he can't put up 45-10 in this scheme. Phillips has used a lot of 4-2-5 nickel packages in the past, which would also bode well for Williams' upside.
Even in very sack heavy scoring systems, the difference in tackle upside is huge. Mathis has 50-12 upside, Freeney is a 30-15 player. Mathis owners still need to watch the progress of Jerry Hughes and be wary of any new DE signing that has run support capability -- either could drop Mathis' snap count to 2008-09 levels -- but it's still reasonable to project him to 80+% of the Colts' defensive snaps and 45-8 or better numbers.
That was before Jeff Fisher was fired. Still lots to be determined in Tennessee on the defensive staff and philosophy. I still like Hayes and there's certainly a reasonable argument that he'll be in line for more playing time if Babin signs elsewhere and Morgan loses more valuable coaching time if OTAs don't happen, but I wouldn't be counting on more than DL3/depth numbers until those situations begin to settle.
Tick
Footballguy
Season-end ranks in FBG scoring system, Mathis listed before Freeney:10: 10, 2009: 11, 2208: 6, 2107: 30, 5906: 6, 4205: 4, 16So for FF, he's statistically better than Freeney for each of the last six seasons.
kellumsboys
Footballguy
good question, i just traded for him but need to extend his contract.I hope they switch to 4-3 because I need him more as a DE, but will his production still be there ?
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
No, I'm planning to treat him as a DL. Remembered to shift the CLE group, but not the DEN group. Would have Dumervil in the DL2 limbo tier. He'll be a DL2 if he plays every down, a DL3 if he plays more of a situational role in the transition. Robert Ayers also probably belongs in that group until his situation is better defined. I'd tentatively project him to start slowly, but begin settling into a productive run during the second half of the season.Thanks for the note.
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Shane Falco
Footballguy
I don't get this one
DL2/Limited DL1 Upside
Jeremy Mincey,
what am I missing?
DL2/Limited DL1 Upside
Jeremy Mincey,
what am I missing?
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
Certainly a risky bet since he's bounced around for years before earning a legitimate chance, but he was much better against the run than I expected and clearly had the favor of the coaching staff in the late season rotation (he played nearly every down over the final month). Project his final eight games over a full 16 game season and he would have been a 45-8 player. I think the depth chart still sets up favorably for him to play 70% of the team's snaps and a return to form of Aaron Kampman probably doesn't hurt him much. He's also be a contract year player, which might be considered reassuring to those who worry that he might be late season's fool's gold.I'm not saying he's a safe draft pick as your long term DL2 in a startup draft right now, just that he's worth considering as a priority upside target after 15-20 DL go off the board. The four tiers that criss-cross the DL2 group are deep enough that a guy with some DL1 upside may not rank among the top 20-25 overall. I'd guess he'd rank in the mid-late 20s for me pending FA/draft depth chart developments.
Beefeaters
Footballguy
Don't most systems have Michael Johnson designated as a LB (effectively killing any value)?
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
Unless something unexpected happens again this offseason, I think the Bengals will use Johnson at DE throughout (and whenever) the offseason resumes. That would change the depth charts accordingly for most, if not all, of the league management sites for 2011.
fridayfrenzy
Footballguy
With Carolina choosing to franchise Kalil instead of Johnson...
How much of Charles Johnson's value is based on him having to stay with Carolina?
If Johnson goes to another 4-3 team in a similar capacity as he was in Carolina, do you change your ranking of him at all?
How much of Charles Johnson's value is based on him having to stay with Carolina?
If Johnson goes to another 4-3 team in a similar capacity as he was in Carolina, do you change your ranking of him at all?
Tickle Monster
Footballguy
Kroy Biermann seems too high. I came in expecting decent production this past year, and he fell flat.
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
Johnson has had this kind of potential for years, but John Fox preferred to use him in a limited rotation with Peppers and Brayton. I think his limiting factor is snap count. If he plays 80% or more in a 4-3 scheme, I'd still consider him a DL1, with a minor concern for a regression if he earns a huge payday.
The guys in the DL2/DL1 upside tier are guys I'm relatively certain get close to 70% of their team's defensive snaps next year. That's why I gave Biermann a very narrow nod (for now, in a dynasty 1.25yr window) over guys like Brandon Graham, Cliff Avril and Everette Brown. Biermann didn't have many sacks last year, but he had lots of quarterback pressures and hits. He's also proven to be productive against the run over the past two years. I think he's got 40-8 potential (or better) and a very good chance at the snaps to reach that potential.
lord_helmet
Footballguy
Good job as always, Ahtyba Rubin needs to be featured in the rosterable DTs though.
Anything interesting you can tell us about Michael Johnson? Is he in danger of being re-designated to LB? Where does he fit in with Dunlap emerging, Odom returning and the rest of the Cincy DL?
Thanks
Anything interesting you can tell us about Michael Johnson? Is he in danger of being re-designated to LB? Where does he fit in with Dunlap emerging, Odom returning and the rest of the Cincy DL?
Thanks
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
Some local speculation suggests that Johnson might be seen by the staff as a situational player only. He played nearly every snap during the second half of 2010, but it's likely that Dunlap becomes a bigger part of the rotation. I think Johnson still plays 65% or more depending on which direction the Bengals go with their top five pick. Odom is something of a wild card. He's probably 50-50 to return. My guess is that the Bengals no longer see him as a major rotational piece, and they won't pay him 5 million dollars to play part time.
Yes, Suggs would fit with the rest of the stud rush OLBs -- Ware, Wake, Hali and the like.
Thanks for the prompt reply!
matttyl
Footballguy
And if Suggs is listed as a DL, as he is in my league...get him now!
Lets not forget who Suggs will be rushing this year.....
Cincinnati twice, and apparently they will be without Palmer and will likely have a rookie QB if he's not there (the draft will happen before free agency).
Cleveland twice, McCoy was sacked 23 times in 8 games - works out to 46 in a full season which would have been #2 in the league to only Cutler
Pittsburgh twice, Big Ben was sacked 32 times in only 12 games last year which was 2nd highest per game average, and 50 times (the most) in 2009 with only 15 games
Jacksonville, Garrard was the 4th most sacked QB in '09 and 8th most in '10
Tennessee, likely a rookie QB, or worse - 38 year old Kerry Collins
Arizona, 2nd most sacked team last year, that offense isn't turning around in one year, and Beanie struggles pass blocking
San Fransisco, 6th most sacked team last year, same idea as Arizona and maybe a rookie QB
Seattle, Matt Hass at his age?
San Diego, 11th most sacked team last year
Suggs should be 10+ sacks this year easy with that schedule.
Lets not forget who Suggs will be rushing this year.....
Cincinnati twice, and apparently they will be without Palmer and will likely have a rookie QB if he's not there (the draft will happen before free agency).
Cleveland twice, McCoy was sacked 23 times in 8 games - works out to 46 in a full season which would have been #2 in the league to only Cutler
Pittsburgh twice, Big Ben was sacked 32 times in only 12 games last year which was 2nd highest per game average, and 50 times (the most) in 2009 with only 15 games
Jacksonville, Garrard was the 4th most sacked QB in '09 and 8th most in '10
Tennessee, likely a rookie QB, or worse - 38 year old Kerry Collins
Arizona, 2nd most sacked team last year, that offense isn't turning around in one year, and Beanie struggles pass blocking
San Fransisco, 6th most sacked team last year, same idea as Arizona and maybe a rookie QB
Seattle, Matt Hass at his age?
San Diego, 11th most sacked team last year
Suggs should be 10+ sacks this year easy with that schedule.
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
No argument with those who would have him ranked in the 30s as part of the DL3 or youth with upside tiers, and I'd certainly consider him as a DL3 if I had sloughed that roster slot until late in a draft. I'm a little nervous that Jim Schwartz shied away from using him every down after Vanden Bosch was lost. He's also never been a consistent tackler and I think he converted a much higher percentage of his pressures to sacks than expected. The first two concerns are shared by some others I have in the tiers above, the last one isn't. Might be nitpicking, but if a DE is a risk to put up 40 solos or play 70% of your team's snaps, he has to be a dominant pass rusher to hold more than matchup value.
This leads into a question about Cliff Avril who is ranked as a DL3 with DL1 upside... What is the percentage of snaps the CA is getting and potential for the coming season tackles and sacks... I have a good feeling that he is ready to break out...Thanks!
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
At times, he was getting 80% or better of Detroit's defensive snaps last year. His pass rush upside has never been a question, but his consistency, durability and run support talent has. If he puts everything together, he continues to have 40-10 upside. If not, I think his upside is more in the John Abraham range.
detroit jazz
Footballguy
Jene,I'm in a tackle heavy dynasty league that I start 1 or 2 DT's and they get 4 pts/ tackle (2pts/ Assist) while DE's get 3 and 1.5 respectively. Given these scoring rules how would you rank the following DT's for dynasty:Roy Miller TBJeremy Mincey JAXDan Williams ARITyson Aluala JAXAmobi Okoye HOU Keep up the great work!! We all appreciate it!!
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
In DT only leagues, DEs like Mincey and Alualu are must rosters. The others would be on a not-yet-a-priority watchlist. I'm hopeful there'll be enough coaching comments after the draft to put together a meaningful update of these tiers before free agency kicks off. I'll go a little deeper into the DTs then.
detroit jazz
Footballguy
Thanks Jene! Looking forward to more info after the draft.
Cipherchris
Footballguy
Thoughts on Mike Patterson Phi, Okoye, or Roy Miller??
I'm in a mandatory DT league
I'm in a mandatory DT league
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
All worth considering within the monster DT2 tier (with Okoye the most risky bet), but none are likely to be consistent enough to become every week starters.
Hi, Jene. i'll add to the chorus of thank yous and appreciation for your work.
I'm curious about the inclusion of Rubin, Suh and kyle williams at the Rosterable/DL3 or better level. Suh practically matched trent cole tackle for tackle and sack for sack last year. williams had half their sacks, but averaged a tackle per game better,and rubin was the leading tackler among DLS for the year. Past performance, they say, is not necessarily indicative of future success, but what has changed in their situations to drop them two starter tiers from their DL1 performance last year? Would you rank them higher if they were DEs, not DTs, and is that a bias it's easy to fall prey to?
I'm curious about the inclusion of Rubin, Suh and kyle williams at the Rosterable/DL3 or better level. Suh practically matched trent cole tackle for tackle and sack for sack last year. williams had half their sacks, but averaged a tackle per game better,and rubin was the leading tackler among DLS for the year. Past performance, they say, is not necessarily indicative of future success, but what has changed in their situations to drop them two starter tiers from their DL1 performance last year? Would you rank them higher if they were DEs, not DTs, and is that a bias it's easy to fall prey to?
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Jene Bramel
Footballguy
I should have broken that tier out a little more clearly. I was trying to highlight the defensive tackles I considered rosterable separately, noting only those I think have a floor in the DL3 range. I think Williams is the safest of the bunch and arguably would rank in the top 20 in a top 50 list. There are arguments for Suh and Rubin, too. I think it'll be interesting to see how Suh adjusts to how opposing offenses game plan for him this year. Rubin played very well, but 50 tackles from a defensive tackle is way above any expectation and there may be an adjustment as the Browns transition to the 4-3. Suh would probably find a way into the top 25, Rubin would definitely be outside right now.
blend
Footballguy
I'm guessing Dumervil will be moved to DE in fox's 4-3, but I'm not sure. If so, I think he'd hold a lot of value.
Rick Blaine
Footballguy
Jene - what is the buzz around Brandon Graham? I know his rookie year was cut a little short and he's now rehabbing all summer long, but is there still high expectations for this guy?
Last offseason he was getting a ton of press turning camp, but I didn't know if he subpar play in limited time last year had softened the view? Any insight is appreciated.
Last offseason he was getting a ton of press turning camp, but I didn't know if he subpar play in limited time last year had softened the view? Any insight is appreciated.
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
I think he played better than he was given credit by some. I still like him. The injury is a big issue, though, because it pushes the usual learning curve back 12-18 months. It might not be until 2012 before he can play more than 300-500 snaps at a high level and it may be 2013 before he becomes a consistent every-down player. I think he's worth stashing if you're in a deep league and have room for a developmental DE4 or DL5, but I doubt you'll get anything from him until midseason at the very earliest.
BuckeyeChaos
Footballguy
What are the best destinations for Ray Edwards' value as a DE? I'm hoping that CLE signs him and that could mean big numbers I would think. I've also heard ATL and remaining in MIN are in the mix.
Anthony Borbely
Footballguy
It's really hard to say because there will be a lot of movement in a short time, but Edwards should have solid value regardless (low DE1). Also, from everything I have seen, it appears highly unlikely that Edwards stays in Minnesota.
hauser42
Footballguy
Avril seems like he could be a nice sleeper at the DL spot with the talent on that line. Suh and Vanden Boesch have the names and teams will be focusing on them each week.
Dunlop really scares me at this point. I think he has a ton of telent, but not sure he puts it together. Being a Gator fan rarely do their DL make it big in the NFL.
Dunlop really scares me at this point. I think he has a ton of telent, but not sure he puts it together. Being a Gator fan rarely do their DL make it big in the NFL.
MBilli
Footballguy
Does the newly reported microfracture surgery raise any additional concerns for Graham's long term outlook? or is it just a longer recovery time for 2011?
