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(DYNASTY) Gronk's Value (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Mimo
- Start date
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Right now, I have him. I traded Owen Daniels, Antonio Gates, and Matt Cassel for him in a dynasty start 2QB league. The other owner was decimated at QB.
I'd take, in no particular order, straight up for Gronk.
Lesean McCoy (although I already have him but just saying)
Cam Newton
Aaron Rodgers
Ray Rice (maybe)
That's it. Remember this is a start 2QB league as well with 10 owners. Gronkowski is the top non-QB in the league. He's also 5th overall behind Rodgers, Newton, Brady, and Brees. He's at a scarce position. You can always find wideouts in a 10 team league (Driver is on the wire right now for instance) but never tight ends (top available TE is Keller who has less than half the points Gronk does).
I'd take, in no particular order, straight up for Gronk.
Lesean McCoy (although I already have him but just saying)
Cam Newton
Aaron Rodgers
Ray Rice (maybe)
That's it. Remember this is a start 2QB league as well with 10 owners. Gronkowski is the top non-QB in the league. He's also 5th overall behind Rodgers, Newton, Brady, and Brees. He's at a scarce position. You can always find wideouts in a 10 team league (Driver is on the wire right now for instance) but never tight ends (top available TE is Keller who has less than half the points Gronk does).
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
I've got him in seven dynasty leagues and I pretty much wouldn't trade him. Barring a catastrophic injury I think his career path is going to follow Tony Gonzalez's. Probably won't play until he's 35 years old, but he could easily have another 4-5 top two finishes at TE, and another 6-8 top fives.
Organized Chaos
Footballguy
Here's what he went for Week 9 in a 14 team dynasty league I play in.
Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB
Keller, Dustin NYJ TE
Year 2012 Round 2 Draft Pick
for
Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE
49ers, San Francisco SFO Def
This owner approached me and made a play for Graham the week before. He offered Keller and a 1st, I declined that one. Good for him, it turns out.
Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB
Keller, Dustin NYJ TE
Year 2012 Round 2 Draft Pick
for
Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE
49ers, San Francisco SFO Def
This owner approached me and made a play for Graham the week before. He offered Keller and a 1st, I declined that one. Good for him, it turns out.
comfortably numb
Footballguy
Back in mid season, just before the 2 games he did not produce much, i offered (3) 1sts, later picks Malcom Floyd and JCasey.
16 team IDP start 2 TE
almost had it, but he wanted me to add my other pick that was projecting as a top 3 pick at the time.
16 team IDP start 2 TE
almost had it, but he wanted me to add my other pick that was projecting as a top 3 pick at the time.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I think the price will go down during the offseason when people see it as a chance to sell high. I already saw some of that during the season. One guy was trying to get Murray for him (not from me), and another guy was trying to get Mathews for him (from me, but I couldn't spare the depth at RB).
I don't think Gronk is worth any of those guys. I'd be stunned if someone gave up Ray Rice or McCoy for him. I know Gronk is breaking records but i don't see any TE being worth a top 3 dynasty RB.
Warhogs
Footballguy
I tend to relate players values in terms of rookie draft picks. A lot could depend on how much a team needs a TE but in looking at this rookie draft as of today I think I would rather have Trent Richardson and Andrew Luck over Gronkowski. I understand the risk I am taking in drafting a rookie over a proven NFL player but in my leagues the QB and RB spots score so many more points than the TE and WR spots.
I would put a rough value of Gronk in the pick 1.03-1.05 range right now.
I would put a rough value of Gronk in the pick 1.03-1.05 range right now.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I'm just saying what I would take for him straight up. Obviously I'd have to value a guy higher to trade him away. Those are the only players I value higher at this point. Kid just put up 40 PPR points this past weekend, and he's broken a major record at the ripe old age of 22.
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Sabertooth
Footballguy
No way would I take the 1.1 for him right now. You already have top production, never trade that away for the potential of top production. I'd like trading away $1,000,000 for lottery tickets that may or may not net you $1,000,001.
I see your point, I just disagree. I don't think a TE is worth an elite RB/WR. And I'd much rather have the 1.01 (Trent Richardson) than Gronk. Just my opinion, though.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Rice
McCoy
Foster
Calvin
Rodgers
Cam
Obviously depends a ton on scoring and starters, but those are probably the only guys I'd really look at before both Gronk and Graham in a dynasty startup this offseason.
There was a run of years when Gates provided solid top 10 value every year, and both guys seem poised to have similar runs.
ETA: if they're both there late in the 1st the smart play might be crossing your fingers that one of the two makes it back around in the 2nd.
McCoy
Foster
Calvin
Rodgers
Cam
Obviously depends a ton on scoring and starters, but those are probably the only guys I'd really look at before both Gronk and Graham in a dynasty startup this offseason.
There was a run of years when Gates provided solid top 10 value every year, and both guys seem poised to have similar runs.
ETA: if they're both there late in the 1st the smart play might be crossing your fingers that one of the two makes it back around in the 2nd.
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Warhogs
Footballguy
I believe the idea of the thread is to guage what others would be willing to pay. I would not pay the 1.01 pick for the top kicker either even if he went out and scored 200 points kicking this year. I am not doubting that Gronkowski is a very valuable and proven young player but you also have to evaluate what are the key scoring positions in your league set up and that holds down the TE value in the leagues I play.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Curious as to the setup in which in which Gronkowski is equal in value to a kicker moving forward. Even if TEs = WRs, how many 22 year old WRs can you pencil in for 10 TDs moving forward?
Sabertooth
Footballguy
But if that TE is scoring higher than the top RB or WR outright, I think his value accelerates quite a bit. Different philosophies I guess.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Less than 1.
dgreen
Footballguy
It also needs to gauge what people are willing to accept in payment.
Warhogs
Footballguy
I would not pencil him in for 10 tds every year for the next decade. The WR and TE spots historically are difficult to consistently produce double digit TD totals year after year. You are missing my point completely. To value any TE or WR as highly as the QB and RB positions in the dynasty leagues I play in I feel would be a mistake. In my leagues Rodgers is the top point scorer with 419.7 points and Gronkowski has 207.28.No doubt he has had a monster season and is a young guy but his point total is still half that of the top point scorer in my format. His value just does not equate to that of the top dynasty QB and RB in the leagues I play in.
DevilDog919
Footballguy
Its not really about the position, its about the points advantage you get from starting him.
At RB for example in one of my leagues. The RB1 average PPG is 7 more than the RB12. At TE, Gronk is TE1 and is scoring 11 more PPG than the TE12...actually all the way up to the TE8. So I am gaining a larger weekly advantage with Gronk than I would be if I owned Lesean McCoy or Ray Rice...plus Gronk will most likely last longer in the league. He is pretty untradeable to me. Would take a Ray Rice, Aaron Rodgers type player and most likely nobody would move that. I'm fine with that too.
At RB for example in one of my leagues. The RB1 average PPG is 7 more than the RB12. At TE, Gronk is TE1 and is scoring 11 more PPG than the TE12...actually all the way up to the TE8. So I am gaining a larger weekly advantage with Gronk than I would be if I owned Lesean McCoy or Ray Rice...plus Gronk will most likely last longer in the league. He is pretty untradeable to me. Would take a Ray Rice, Aaron Rodgers type player and most likely nobody would move that. I'm fine with that too.
dgreen
Footballguy
It seems the different philosophy is how you're predicting the future. Gronk currently outscoring RBx doesn't necessarily lead me to believe he will outscore him the remainder of the season, next season, or in three seasons.
Warhogs
Footballguy
Well, it looks like we have established that if anyone is trading for him they probably would want to give up nothing in the top 10 players and those trading him away would need someone in the top two I guess. I'm thinking we might not see a ton of Gronkowski trades this year.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Isn't the opposite also true though? What is the evidence that a particular back will outscore him?
Warhogs
Footballguy
Maybe this is the discussion point. Do you feel Gronkowski is going to set all new standards for the TE spot? If we forget about names and instead just say historically how valuable is the top TE in comparison to all other players available we might get to the answer. I think in my 20 plus years of playing fantasy football the earliest I remember seeing a TE drafted was at the end of round 2 (I think pick 24). Generally, I believe the top TE has gone off the board more from mid round 3 to mid round 4. I just have a real hard time putting Gronkowski in the top 20 players available say nothing about top 5. Safe to assume I will not be adding Gronkowski in my dynasty leagues I guess.
dgreen
Footballguy
I'd start with: "Because they're RBs."Sure, it's not perfect, but I tend to be more confident in the top RBs projected production than the top TEs. All else being equal, I think a top TE going 2-20-0 in a given game is much more likely than a top RB going 12-30-0. I'm not ready to put Gronk in a "We've never seen anything like him before" category. He's not the Jerry Rice of TEs yet. He's been red hot the last several weeks, but I'm not willing to use that to project top 5 overall going forward. I'd be more on board if this was a RB have a similar hot streak.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Gronk's year this year is pretty clearly an outlier as far as the TDs go, but I've seen enough to say he is capable of physically dominating moving forward like a young Gates / Gonzo. 900 - 1200 / 8+ for years. If you have a TE requirement, that's a top-10 value easily.
Same goes for Jimmy Graham. I don't own either (all in on effing Finley) but would expect to pay a top-10 overall pricetag.
Also, in no format is a rookie pick worth a young stud player.
Same goes for Jimmy Graham. I don't own either (all in on effing Finley) but would expect to pay a top-10 overall pricetag.
Also, in no format is a rookie pick worth a young stud player.
I think by next season there is a decent chance this trade looks far more even. Crabtree is finally healthy and beginning to come into his own and is one of my biggest offseason dynasty targets. As for those only willing to move Gronk for McCoy or Rice type players, I think that's crazy as no TE is worth that IMO. He's a terrific player but I would never build around a TE (even if I risk missing the next Gates). You build around elite RBs/WRs/QBs, not TEs. IMO naturally... which is probably why I'm out of all my playoffs lol.I was disgusted when one of the worst teams in my 12 team PPR league traded away Gronk for Crabtree and Owen Daniels to one of the best teams. These kind of unbalanced trades just kill the parity of the league.
I would gladly give Gronkowski for the right to draft Trent Richardson.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
I love Trent Richardson, and if he hits, he could be the next Peterson and be about as valuable as Gronk or Graham (likely more yearly seperation but for a shorter shelf life). He could also be the next Lawrence Phillips or Reggie Bush.
That's why we play the game!
If you're sure on a guy, you go and get that guy. I'd give up any TE for Richardson - I can always find "a guy" to plug in at the position, and I believe Gronk comes back to earth next year (though he'll obviously still be great). I just don't see TE's as important as the other skill positions.benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
I agree with some of the discussions here that having Gronk at TE puts a +11 point advantage every week over another owner, rather than a RB over another RB.
A few things that haven't been discussed:
-Will Gronk's numbers decline with all of this success?
This could happen. Maybe he will hold out for money after setting a record, etc.
-Will he become double teamed more often or game planned against in the future?
This should be happening this year. With only an aging Welker to draw attention away, perhaps he gets doubled like Calvin Johnson has down the stretch.
-Will Tom Brady keep up this production?
He's 34 years old already. Keeping up elite production for 2 years is possible, but anything beyond that is up in the air.
-Would the next NE QB keep up Gronk's TD numbers?
I doubt it, even if it is the same coaching staff/system
-Will injuries be a factor in his future?
Gronk dropped in the draft due to injuries. He missed his entire senior season in college because of back surgery.
A few things that haven't been discussed:
-Will Gronk's numbers decline with all of this success?
This could happen. Maybe he will hold out for money after setting a record, etc.
-Will he become double teamed more often or game planned against in the future?
This should be happening this year. With only an aging Welker to draw attention away, perhaps he gets doubled like Calvin Johnson has down the stretch.
-Will Tom Brady keep up this production?
He's 34 years old already. Keeping up elite production for 2 years is possible, but anything beyond that is up in the air.
-Would the next NE QB keep up Gronk's TD numbers?
I doubt it, even if it is the same coaching staff/system
-Will injuries be a factor in his future?
Gronk dropped in the draft due to injuries. He missed his entire senior season in college because of back surgery.
Banger
Footballguy
We really haven't seen anything like him before because he did break the all time record for TEs with 3 weeks left to play in the season. 6-86-1 (14.6)4-86-2 (20.6)7-109-2 (22.9)1-15 (1.5)4-31 (3.1)7-74 (7.4)7-94 (9.4)8-101-1 (16.1)8-113-2 (23.3)4-96-2 (21.6)4-59-1 (11.9)5-64-2 (24.6)6-160-2 (28)
az_prof
Footballguy
At the end of the day, I don't think he is an elite HOF type player like Gonzalez or Gates. He is benefiting from a HOF QB in his prime and an offense that is designed to take advantage of his skills. He is having a career year. I expect him to fall back closer to the norm next year.
I know that I am the outlier analyst here, but that's how I see it. I just don't see that he is faster, stronger, a better jumper, more physical than a dozen other TEs. He is just a good player in a great situation.
But will the offense be exactly the same next year? I wouldn't bet on it. And defenses will adjust to control him better if NE doesn't change.
That being said, I would put his value at a rookie pick of 1.3. I certainly wouldn't trade him a top RB like Rice. Maybe one who is equally good but has injury concerns like DMac. I definitely wouldn't trade a top 10 WR because they are golden. But I would trade a second tier WR like Brandon Marshall or Dwayne Bowe.
I know that I am the outlier analyst here, but that's how I see it. I just don't see that he is faster, stronger, a better jumper, more physical than a dozen other TEs. He is just a good player in a great situation.
But will the offense be exactly the same next year? I wouldn't bet on it. And defenses will adjust to control him better if NE doesn't change.
That being said, I would put his value at a rookie pick of 1.3. I certainly wouldn't trade him a top RB like Rice. Maybe one who is equally good but has injury concerns like DMac. I definitely wouldn't trade a top 10 WR because they are golden. But I would trade a second tier WR like Brandon Marshall or Dwayne Bowe.
To whose norm?
Marshall's career VBD total is 198 for 6 years. Bowe is at 153 for 5 years. Gronk is at 141 for 2 years. Marshall is 27, Bowe is 27, and Gronk is 22. As you pointed out, Gronk has a HOF QB. Bowe and Marshall don't yet have an average NFL QB. Why on earth would anyone ever consider giving him up for Bowe or Marshall?
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Seriously. I own Gronk and I wouldn't be able to offer him in exchange for Ray Rice with a straight face. This thread is making me think I need to sell high in the offseason.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Or maybe his numbers will decline next year due to ordinary reversion to the mean. Not saying that he's going to become a member of the 400/3 TE crap-pile, but that he's not going to be setting NFL records every year.
DevilDog919
Footballguy
I dont think anyone is projecting these record breaking years every season, although he has shown he is capable. Even without a record breaking year, he would be a 5 or so PPG advantage at TE. Barring injury, he is a big advantage at the TE spot with the upside of being an unbelievable advantage if he can have anymore years like this one...which at 22 I do believe he can.
az_prof
Footballguy
Consistency. How many years has Gronk been a top TE? How do you know he is going to be able to do it year in year out? How do you know that Hernandez, who is a better receiving TE physically, won't emerge as the preferred target? How do you know that the team won't draft a great RB and become a more balanced offense? As for returning to the norm, I am talking about regression--which is the normal expectation when someone has a career year. If you want to go all in on a TE with one great year and average physical skills, go for it. My advice would be to sell high but I don't expect you to take my advice.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Neither is Ray Rice.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
How do you know this is a career year? The kid is 22 years old for Pete's sake. His career year might happen in 2013 or even 2019. He's got virtually all of the tread left on his tires. He's outscored everybody in my leagues that isn't a QB (I realize scoring will vary).
dgreen
Footballguy
True, Ray Rice will come closer to matching his expectations than Gronkowski will. But, that's more likely to be caused by people having realistic expectations for Rice.
Gronk will have a 35 year old HOF QB next season. At some point Brady will begin to break down, it's not like Gronk is set with Brady for the next 10 years. He may only have 2 more years where Brady is elite... I might give Gronk for Marshall or Bowe IF I needed a WR badly and had a decent enough TE to replace him (Pettigrew, Fred Davis, Owen Daniels etc.) Though I'd probably ask for more. Depends on team needs.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I'm not ready to concede that point at all.
Shutout
Footballguy
Always sell high in the career year and let's face it, this is it.
The same people thinking they "MIGHT" take Ray Rice for him straight up are the same people that wouldn't fathom trading Calvin two months ago or Nicks last year or gates the year before, etc, etc.
When a player looks THIS untouchable, its always time to sell high. I bet someone can dig up no less than half a dozen Jermichael Finley/Roddy White/Hakeem Nicks/etc threads over the past few seasons that will read just like this one. Sell high people, unless you honestly search your football soul and think that this will just continue and continue and continue. But before you make that final decision, rememember it is the Patriots who seemingly re-invent themselves every year and a half. didn't they have a 14TD+ RB just a few years ago...and then another different RB that did it right after that...and then they set the single season TD record with a WR...? And then remember this is a team with older critical players that won't be there in a handful of years.
One of the things that makes the Patriots the patriots is that they don't get complacent and they truly understand what they are doing. They understand better than anyone else what it is they do that makes them better than you AND they understand better than anyone else WHY that is. SO, before most teams even figure out what it is the Patriots are doing to them, the Patriots are already working on what they need to do to stay one step ahead. So by the time other teams figure out how to take away one thing, the Patriots are already on to the next thing.
If this were a complacent team like the Chiefs or Chargers and the core players were young, I would say "yeah, Gronk can be the Patriots' Gonzo for a decade. Just keep rolling out there having success but never taking the next step as a team". But this is the Patriots. Like every year prior for the past 5 or 6, they will show this to us all year until their opponents are sick of it and then next year come back with the ground game or the outside game. And then one week when the matchup is right, they will break out the gronk just for the fun of it (but not ad nasuem like we see now).
I probably sound like the biggest patriots homer in the world but I'm not. I;m actually a Colts fan that has watched the Patriots shwo the left and haymaker us with the right for a decade. I speak truth.
The same people thinking they "MIGHT" take Ray Rice for him straight up are the same people that wouldn't fathom trading Calvin two months ago or Nicks last year or gates the year before, etc, etc.
When a player looks THIS untouchable, its always time to sell high. I bet someone can dig up no less than half a dozen Jermichael Finley/Roddy White/Hakeem Nicks/etc threads over the past few seasons that will read just like this one. Sell high people, unless you honestly search your football soul and think that this will just continue and continue and continue. But before you make that final decision, rememember it is the Patriots who seemingly re-invent themselves every year and a half. didn't they have a 14TD+ RB just a few years ago...and then another different RB that did it right after that...and then they set the single season TD record with a WR...? And then remember this is a team with older critical players that won't be there in a handful of years.
One of the things that makes the Patriots the patriots is that they don't get complacent and they truly understand what they are doing. They understand better than anyone else what it is they do that makes them better than you AND they understand better than anyone else WHY that is. SO, before most teams even figure out what it is the Patriots are doing to them, the Patriots are already working on what they need to do to stay one step ahead. So by the time other teams figure out how to take away one thing, the Patriots are already on to the next thing.
If this were a complacent team like the Chiefs or Chargers and the core players were young, I would say "yeah, Gronk can be the Patriots' Gonzo for a decade. Just keep rolling out there having success but never taking the next step as a team". But this is the Patriots. Like every year prior for the past 5 or 6, they will show this to us all year until their opponents are sick of it and then next year come back with the ground game or the outside game. And then one week when the matchup is right, they will break out the gronk just for the fun of it (but not ad nasuem like we see now).
I probably sound like the biggest patriots homer in the world but I'm not. I;m actually a Colts fan that has watched the Patriots shwo the left and haymaker us with the right for a decade. I speak truth.
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Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
I don't see anyone saying "trade Rice, Calvin, etc" for him, and I'd personally reject a straight up offer for those guys and a few others. I'd probably see what else I could get along with Gronk though as opposed to just rejecting it as absurd with no point in following up. For me, it gets really interesting at the end of round one, or when guys like Chris Johnson or Mike Wallace get offered up, assuming TE required and PPR.
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You don't know that about anyone. Those questions apply to all players.
But, regression to whose mean? Do you you mean to the mean of all TEs? All NE TEs? This is the problem with randomly applying regression to the mean. If Gronk had 10 years of history, then you have a mean to which you can regress. Do you realize that last year, Gronk actually had a higher TD rate? Last year, he had 1 TD for every 6 targets. This year it's about 1 in 6.7. Even if he does 'regress' to a more normal amount of TDs, like the level of Graham or Gonzalez, his VBD numbers still blows away guys like Marshall and Bowe.Regarding your advice to sell high, I'm a Graham owner, not a Gronk owner, so I can't be a seller. However, if I did own him, I'd ride him for the next 5-10 years.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Nicks and White are WR #11 and #12 on the year in non-PPR. They are having down years but still producing and still have a good outlook going forward. What exactly were you going to sell them for last year? There are very few WRs who are significantly better both short term and long term. Given Nicks' age what incentive was there to sell high on him? A lot of the top 15 WRs at this point last year have dropped off a lot more than Nicks has (Dez, DJax, Mike Williams, Sidney Rice), so saying you could have gotten someone just as good + bonus picks isn't a good argument.
Welker is having his best year ever playing the same game he always did. It's just as accurate to say they find ways to exploit the talent they have.
NightStalkers
Footballguy
In a 2PPR for TE league
I offered Gresham, Nicks, and 2012 first for Gronk and was thanked for the offer but declined.
I offered Gresham, Nicks, and 2012 first for Gronk and was thanked for the offer but declined.
