(DYNASTY) Gronk's Value (1 Viewer)

[todisco1]

In a 2PPR for TE league I offered Gresham, Nicks, and 2012 first for Gronk and was thanked for the offer but declined.

Nice offer - I guess 2ppr skews things though and makes Gronk that much more valuable. Still, Nicks and a 1st is pretty sweet.

 

[smashingsilver]

I don't own Gronk anywhere in dynasty, and wouldn't even dream about trying to acquire him right now. There is no way I could win the trade based on his current value, as stated in this thread anyways. Better off trying to find the next Gronk (or closest facsimile) than to waste precious resources chasing after this year's stats. If I was a Gronk owner and I was being offered some of the names thrown around in this thread, I would be jumping on it.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Consistency. How many years has Gronk been a top TE? How do you know he is going to be able to do it year in year out?

Nobody knows anything. But the history of 22 year olds who finish #1 at their position turns out to be pretty freaking good. He should have a Tony G type career barring some sort of freak catastrophic injury. He's basically uncoverable.

 

[NightStalkers]

In a 2PPR for TE league I offered Gresham, Nicks, and 2012 first for Gronk and was thanked for the offer but declined.

Nice offer - I guess 2ppr skews things though and makes Gronk that much more valuable. Still, Nicks and a 1st is pretty sweet.

Gresham is a nice piece too with the growth of Dalton/AJ Green

 

[golfguy]

and here we go. i remember last year everyone saying that nicks was going to score 18 tds a year. he just set an all-time benchmark. what is he going to do, improve on this number every year? how many more years does brady really have left?

if someone turns down, gresham, nicks and a 1st that imo is just silly. it's a sell high time. if you get a solid offer.

 

[johnadams]

I agree that it's time to sell high. Guys just don't get higher in value than what I'm seeing. But if I'm a buyer, I'm waiting to see what NE does at WR in the off-season. Gronk's value will not get any higher and a high profile WR signing will hurt his value.

NE has a ridiculous 39 targets to TEs in the red zone. There are a few reasons for this, but one of them is the fact that they have terrible options at WR. If NE gets a legit red zone WR, those red zone targest will fall. I suspect that Hernandez (29% conversion on 17 red zone targets) is likely the bigger loser than Gronk (50% conversion on 22 targets). Also, with an off-season to prepare, I gotta think that the divisional foes at the very least will put a ton of effort into game preparing for the NE TEs during the off season as well.

Also, if anyone has a link where someone actually performs a proper regression analysis on football, I'd like to see it. Personally, I think football (and especially fantasy football) is a terrible place to apply regression analysis. Way too many uncontrollable variables and difficulty defining the population where you taking the mean from (never mind which mean you are using). I could make this into a topic by itself, but I've probably been boring enough.

 

[pittstownkiller]

I am hoping that the offer of Miles Austin and my 2012 first gets it done but I don't know.

 

[supersecretid]

Its not really about the position, its about the points advantage you get from starting him. At RB for example in one of my leagues. The RB1 average PPG is 7 more than the RB12. At TE, Gronk is TE1 and is scoring 11 more PPG than the TE12...actually all the way up to the TE8. So I am gaining a larger weekly advantage with Gronk than I would be if I owned Lesean McCoy or Ray Rice...plus Gronk will most likely last longer in the league. He is pretty untradeable to me. Would take a Ray Rice, Aaron Rodgers type player and most likely nobody would move that. I'm fine with that too.

This is the right idea but your application of it isn't very good. TE12 (or even TE8) is going to be MUCH easier to come by than RB12. Compare them each to the top choice on the wire, for instance, and it will tell a different story.In my league McCoy is 206 pts ahead of the top wire RB.Gronk is 162 pts ahead of the top wire TE.And we start 2 TEs.

 

[az_prof]

Consistency. How many years has Gronk been a top TE? How do you know he is going to be able to do it year in year out?

Nobody knows anything. But the history of 22 year olds who finish #1 at their position turns out to be pretty freaking good. He should have a Tony G type career barring some sort of freak catastrophic injury. He's basically uncoverable.

I remember a couple of years ago when it was Finley...

 

[the UFFRM]

16 team with IDP, .5 ppr for RB & TE, and 2 perpetual draft round keepers.... I was thinking of offering Foster (R3) and my 2012 picks 1 and 2 for Gronk (R3) and his 2012 picks 2 and 4. We will both be in the back 4 of the draft.

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

Consistency. How many years has Gronk been a top TE? How do you know he is going to be able to do it year in year out?

Nobody knows anything. But the history of 22 year olds who finish #1 at their position turns out to be pretty freaking good. He should have a Tony G type career barring some sort of freak catastrophic injury. He's basically uncoverable.

I remember a couple of years ago when it was Finley...

When did Finley finish #1?

 

[Bayhawks]

Consistency. How many years has Gronk been a top TE? How do you know he is going to be able to do it year in year out?

Nobody knows anything. But the history of 22 year olds who finish #1 at their position turns out to be pretty freaking good. He should have a Tony G type career barring some sort of freak catastrophic injury. He's basically uncoverable.

I remember a couple of years ago when it was Finley...

The difference is that Finley NEVER put up anywhere close to the numbers Gronkowski is putting up. Finley had a SOLID last 5 games of 2009, and looked like a TE on the come. Then he was hyped in the 2010 off/pre-season. Then he had an above-average first four games of 2010 before he got hurt.Gronkowski is having THE BEST EVER start to his career, and has already set the NFL RECORD for single-season receiving TDs from a TE. Gronkowski is on pace to break the record for single-season receiving yards by a TE.

That's like saying "I remember a couple of years ago when it was Vince Young...." to dismiss what Cam Newton has done.

 

[Sabertooth]

Consistency. How many years has Gronk been a top TE? How do you know he is going to be able to do it year in year out?

Nobody knows anything. But the history of 22 year olds who finish #1 at their position turns out to be pretty freaking good. He should have a Tony G type career barring some sort of freak catastrophic injury. He's basically uncoverable.

I remember a couple of years ago when it was Finley...

I remember a couple of years ago when it was Gates too... oh wait he's going to the HOF.

 

[Shutout]

I don't see anyone saying "trade Rice, Calvin, etc" for him, and I'd personally reject a straight up offer for those guys and a few others. I'd probably see what else I could get along with Gronk though as opposed to just rejecting it as absurd with no point in following up. For me, it gets really interesting at the end of round one, or when guys like Chris Johnson or Mike Wallace get offered up, assuming TE required and PPR.

Post #2 (Sabertooth)

I'd take, in no particular order, straight up for Gronk.

Lesean McCoy (although I already have him but just saying)

Cam Newton

Aaron Rodgers

Ray Rice (maybe)

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

At the end of the day, I don't think he is an elite HOF type player like Gonzalez or Gates. He is benefiting from a HOF QB in his prime and an offense that is designed to take advantage of his skills. He is having a career year. I expect him to fall back closer to the norm next year.

To whose norm?

That being said, I would put his value at a rookie pick of 1.3. I certainly wouldn't trade him a top RB like Rice. Maybe one who is equally good but has injury concerns like DMac. I definitely wouldn't trade a top 10 WR because they are golden. But I would trade a second tier WR like Brandon Marshall or Dwayne Bowe.

Marshall's career VBD total is 198 for 6 years. Bowe is at 153 for 5 years. Gronk is at 141 for 2 years. Marshall is 27, Bowe is 27, and Gronk is 22. As you pointed out, Gronk has a HOF QB. Bowe and Marshall don't yet have an average NFL QB. Why on earth would anyone ever consider giving him up for Bowe or Marshall?

Consistency. How many years has Gronk been a top TE? How do you know he is going to be able to do it year in year out? How do you know that Hernandez, who is a better receiving TE physically, won't emerge as the preferred target? How do you know that the team won't draft a great RB and become a more balanced offense? As for returning to the norm, I am talking about regression--which is the normal expectation when someone has a career year. If you want to go all in on a TE with one great year and average physical skills, go for it. My advice would be to sell high but I don't expect you to take my advice.

How do you know this is a career year? The kid is 22 years old for Pete's sake. His career year might happen in 2013 or even 2019. He's got virtually all of the tread left on his tires. He's outscored everybody in my leagues that isn't a QB (I realize scoring will vary).

Brady isn't getting any younger. Also, that other TE is pretty talented too, so what if Brady starts to go to him more? You would have to be nuts not to accept a deal for Trent Richardson, Aaron Rodgers, LeSean McCoy, or Ray Rice for Gronk.

 

[Shutout]

When a player looks THIS untouchable, its always time to sell high. I bet someone can dig up no less than half a dozen Jermichael Finley/Roddy White/Hakeem Nicks/etc threads over the past few seasons that will read just like this one. Sell high people, unless you honestly search your football soul and think that this will just continue and continue and continue.

Nicks and White are WR #11 and #12 on the year in non-PPR. They are having down years but still producing and still have a good outlook going forward. What exactly were you going to sell them for last year? There are very few WRs who are significantly better both short term and long term. Given Nicks' age what incentive was there to sell high on him? A lot of the top 15 WRs at this point last year have dropped off a lot more than Nicks has (Dez, DJax, Mike Williams, Sidney Rice), so saying you could have gotten someone just as good + bonus picks isn't a good argument.

So by the time other teams figure out how to take away one thing, the Patriots are already on to the next thing.

Welker is having his best year ever playing the same game he always did. It's just as accurate to say they find ways to exploit the talent they have.

Point was that last year if you were having a discussion about trading Nicks, it was alot like this: people saying he's a lock to score 14TDs a year, blah blah blah and if you asked "what would you take", the general response was something like what we are seeing now with crazy multiple picks and players that are top notch in their own right. Now, just a month later people had a post blasting Nicks and now he's bounced back some. I'm just saying that they were as untouchable as Gronk is now and there are good reasons why it is very rare it is justified.

 

[Sabertooth]

At the end of the day, I don't think he is an elite HOF type player like Gonzalez or Gates. He is benefiting from a HOF QB in his prime and an offense that is designed to take advantage of his skills. He is having a career year. I expect him to fall back closer to the norm next year.

To whose norm?

That being said, I would put his value at a rookie pick of 1.3. I certainly wouldn't trade him a top RB like Rice. Maybe one who is equally good but has injury concerns like DMac. I definitely wouldn't trade a top 10 WR because they are golden. But I would trade a second tier WR like Brandon Marshall or Dwayne Bowe.

Marshall's career VBD total is 198 for 6 years. Bowe is at 153 for 5 years. Gronk is at 141 for 2 years. Marshall is 27, Bowe is 27, and Gronk is 22. As you pointed out, Gronk has a HOF QB. Bowe and Marshall don't yet have an average NFL QB. Why on earth would anyone ever consider giving him up for Bowe or Marshall?

Consistency. How many years has Gronk been a top TE? How do you know he is going to be able to do it year in year out? How do you know that Hernandez, who is a better receiving TE physically, won't emerge as the preferred target? How do you know that the team won't draft a great RB and become a more balanced offense? As for returning to the norm, I am talking about regression--which is the normal expectation when someone has a career year. If you want to go all in on a TE with one great year and average physical skills, go for it. My advice would be to sell high but I don't expect you to take my advice.

How do you know this is a career year? The kid is 22 years old for Pete's sake. His career year might happen in 2013 or even 2019. He's got virtually all of the tread left on his tires. He's outscored everybody in my leagues that isn't a QB (I realize scoring will vary).

Brady isn't getting any younger. Also, that other TE is pretty talented too, so what if Brady starts to go to him more? You would have to be nuts not to accept a deal for Trent Richardson, Aaron Rodgers, LeSean McCoy, or Ray Rice for Gronk.

Trent Richardson? Really? I think I learned my lesson when I took Mark Ingram over Cam Newton this season? Rookies are a crapshoot. I said I would accept a deal for Rodgers, Newton, McCoy, or maybe Ray Rice for him. You misread my post.

 

[Sabertooth]

When a player looks THIS untouchable, its always time to sell high. I bet someone can dig up no less than half a dozen Jermichael Finley/Roddy White/Hakeem Nicks/etc threads over the past few seasons that will read just like this one. Sell high people, unless you honestly search your football soul and think that this will just continue and continue and continue.

Nicks and White are WR #11 and #12 on the year in non-PPR. They are having down years but still producing and still have a good outlook going forward. What exactly were you going to sell them for last year? There are very few WRs who are significantly better both short term and long term. Given Nicks' age what incentive was there to sell high on him? A lot of the top 15 WRs at this point last year have dropped off a lot more than Nicks has (Dez, DJax, Mike Williams, Sidney Rice), so saying you could have gotten someone just as good + bonus picks isn't a good argument.

So by the time other teams figure out how to take away one thing, the Patriots are already on to the next thing.

Welker is having his best year ever playing the same game he always did. It's just as accurate to say they find ways to exploit the talent they have.

Point was that last year if you were having a discussion about trading Nicks, it was alot like this: people saying he's a lock to score 14TDs a year, blah blah blah and if you asked "what would you take", the general response was something like what we are seeing now with crazy multiple picks and players that are top notch in their own right. Now, just a month later people had a post blasting Nicks and now he's bounced back some. I'm just saying that they were as untouchable as Gronk is now and there are good reasons why it is very rare it is justified.

I was lampooned in my thread for stating Adrian Peterson's value had peaked as well. Values rise and fall. When they get to that super elite upper tier, that is generally the time to sell, I agree. But it is a fine line between selling high and selling low. If a guy continues to perform as a top 5 overall scorer and you sell him, you are probably selling low even though you think at the time you are selling high. I've "sold high" on many players in the past, only to find out that what I thought was "selling high" turned out to be the wrong move because they continued to perform at that level for years to come.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Consistency. How many years has Gronk been a top TE? How do you know he is going to be able to do it year in year out?

Nobody knows anything. But the history of 22 year olds who finish #1 at their position turns out to be pretty freaking good. He should have a Tony G type career barring some sort of freak catastrophic injury. He's basically uncoverable.

I remember a couple of years ago when it was Finley...

I'm a big fan of both, but the obvious difference is that Gronkowski has produced at the highest level for a full season (and also had a highly productive rookie season as well) and it was just assumed that Finley could do it based on a couple of big playoff games the season before and his physical attributes.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Gronk probably won't replicate this season again, but if Gates and Gonzo are the best comps (I think he's better) you should be looking at 8-10 seasons of 50+ VBD points from here forward.

There are a handful of guys you could say the same thing about, but there aren't more than 5-10. He should be a 1st round lock in dynasty startups next year, or at the very worst someone that gets drafted at the 1/2 turn.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Gronk probably won't replicate this season again, but if Gates and Gonzo are the best comps (I think he's better) you should be looking at 8-10 seasons of 50+ VBD points from here forward.There are a handful of guys you could say the same thing about, but there aren't more than 5-10. He should be a 1st round lock in dynasty startups next year, or at the very worst someone that gets drafted at the 1/2 turn.

Although I don't think I'm ready to say "better" than those two guys yet. I'm more along the lines of "looks like he's somewhere in that uber-elite category, and plays in the best fantasy situation imaginable."Either way, it's a recipe for a whole bunch of 1000/10 moving forward. What that's actually worth is simple math based on scoring system.

 

[Warhogs]

At the end of the day, I don't think he is an elite HOF type player like Gonzalez or Gates. He is benefiting from a HOF QB in his prime and an offense that is designed to take advantage of his skills. He is having a career year. I expect him to fall back closer to the norm next year.

To whose norm?

That being said, I would put his value at a rookie pick of 1.3. I certainly wouldn't trade him a top RB like Rice. Maybe one who is equally good but has injury concerns like DMac. I definitely wouldn't trade a top 10 WR because they are golden. But I would trade a second tier WR like Brandon Marshall or Dwayne Bowe.

Marshall's career VBD total is 198 for 6 years. Bowe is at 153 for 5 years. Gronk is at 141 for 2 years. Marshall is 27, Bowe is 27, and Gronk is 22. As you pointed out, Gronk has a HOF QB. Bowe and Marshall don't yet have an average NFL QB. Why on earth would anyone ever consider giving him up for Bowe or Marshall?

Consistency. How many years has Gronk been a top TE? How do you know he is going to be able to do it year in year out? How do you know that Hernandez, who is a better receiving TE physically, won't emerge as the preferred target? How do you know that the team won't draft a great RB and become a more balanced offense? As for returning to the norm, I am talking about regression--which is the normal expectation when someone has a career year. If you want to go all in on a TE with one great year and average physical skills, go for it. My advice would be to sell high but I don't expect you to take my advice.

How do you know this is a career year? The kid is 22 years old for Pete's sake. His career year might happen in 2013 or even 2019. He's got virtually all of the tread left on his tires. He's outscored everybody in my leagues that isn't a QB (I realize scoring will vary).

Brady isn't getting any younger. Also, that other TE is pretty talented too, so what if Brady starts to go to him more? You would have to be nuts not to accept a deal for Trent Richardson, Aaron Rodgers, LeSean McCoy, or Ray Rice for Gronk.

Trent Richardson? Really? I think I learned my lesson when I took Mark Ingram over Cam Newton this season? Rookies are a crapshoot. I said I would accept a deal for Rodgers, Newton, McCoy, or maybe Ray Rice for him. You misread my post.

You also did not include guys like ADP, Foster, Forte and Calvin Johnson. We will just have to see how this plays out but I would be shocked if I saw Gronkowki go in round 1 of any start up dynasty draft. I could not argue against anyone who feels strongly about him taking him anywhere outside of the top 10 players but I think if we look at this thread in a couple of years those touting him as a top 5-6 dynasty players may be singing a different tune.Those still defending this seem to also still refuse to believe that Brady will soon slow down and retire and that will most likely effect his numbers. I think bringing in another WR option may as well too.Bump Gronkowski must be replacing Bump Finley.

 

[doowain]

I was lampooned in my thread for stating Adrian Peterson's value had peaked as well.

That's not why.

 

[dickey moe]

Its not really about the position, its about the points advantage you get from starting him. At RB for example in one of my leagues. The RB1 average PPG is 7 more than the RB12. At TE, Gronk is TE1 and is scoring 11 more PPG than the TE12...actually all the way up to the TE8. So I am gaining a larger weekly advantage with Gronk than I would be if I owned Lesean McCoy or Ray Rice...plus Gronk will most likely last longer in the league. He is pretty untradeable to me. Would take a Ray Rice, Aaron Rodgers type player and most likely nobody would move that. I'm fine with that too.

This is exactly why Gronk is right now one of the most valuable players in fantasy football.

 

[beerbarron]

Its not really about the position, its about the points advantage you get from starting him. At RB for example in one of my leagues. The RB1 average PPG is 7 more than the RB12. At TE, Gronk is TE1 and is scoring 11 more PPG than the TE12...actually all the way up to the TE8. So I am gaining a larger weekly advantage with Gronk than I would be if I owned Lesean McCoy or Ray Rice...plus Gronk will most likely last longer in the league. He is pretty untradeable to me. Would take a Ray Rice, Aaron Rodgers type player and most likely nobody would move that. I'm fine with that too.

This is exactly why Gronk is right now one of the most valuable players in fantasy football.

I have a hard time believing Gronk will repeat or break his own record breaking season.. It could happen but the stats dont show it is likely. Also, behind tom brady is a young ryan mallet.. so to say gronk looses value as an early dynasty draft due to TB retiring soon might not be accurate. The fantasy literature often tells us that young Qb's check down or use the TE more so than experienced QB's until they learn the system or get comfortable playing pro ball.. which would be a benefit to Gronk's value.. Mallet having a huge arm would help to open up the TE pass' as DB's have to cover the whole field.. It will be interesting to see where he goes in start up dynasties next year.. I doubt he makes it out of the second round...The way he is playing this season its almost like starting another O player..

 

[Sabertooth]

At the end of the day, I don't think he is an elite HOF type player like Gonzalez or Gates. He is benefiting from a HOF QB in his prime and an offense that is designed to take advantage of his skills. He is having a career year. I expect him to fall back closer to the norm next year.

To whose norm?

That being said, I would put his value at a rookie pick of 1.3. I certainly wouldn't trade him a top RB like Rice. Maybe one who is equally good but has injury concerns like DMac. I definitely wouldn't trade a top 10 WR because they are golden. But I would trade a second tier WR like Brandon Marshall or Dwayne Bowe.

Marshall's career VBD total is 198 for 6 years. Bowe is at 153 for 5 years. Gronk is at 141 for 2 years. Marshall is 27, Bowe is 27, and Gronk is 22. As you pointed out, Gronk has a HOF QB. Bowe and Marshall don't yet have an average NFL QB. Why on earth would anyone ever consider giving him up for Bowe or Marshall?

Consistency. How many years has Gronk been a top TE? How do you know he is going to be able to do it year in year out? How do you know that Hernandez, who is a better receiving TE physically, won't emerge as the preferred target? How do you know that the team won't draft a great RB and become a more balanced offense? As for returning to the norm, I am talking about regression--which is the normal expectation when someone has a career year. If you want to go all in on a TE with one great year and average physical skills, go for it. My advice would be to sell high but I don't expect you to take my advice.

How do you know this is a career year? The kid is 22 years old for Pete's sake. His career year might happen in 2013 or even 2019. He's got virtually all of the tread left on his tires. He's outscored everybody in my leagues that isn't a QB (I realize scoring will vary).

Brady isn't getting any younger. Also, that other TE is pretty talented too, so what if Brady starts to go to him more? You would have to be nuts not to accept a deal for Trent Richardson, Aaron Rodgers, LeSean McCoy, or Ray Rice for Gronk.

Trent Richardson? Really? I think I learned my lesson when I took Mark Ingram over Cam Newton this season? Rookies are a crapshoot. I said I would accept a deal for Rodgers, Newton, McCoy, or maybe Ray Rice for him. You misread my post.

You also did not include guys like ADP, Foster, Forte and Calvin Johnson. We will just have to see how this plays out but I would be shocked if I saw Gronkowki go in round 1 of any start up dynasty draft. I could not argue against anyone who feels strongly about him taking him anywhere outside of the top 10 players but I think if we look at this thread in a couple of years those touting him as a top 5-6 dynasty players may be singing a different tune.Those still defending this seem to also still refuse to believe that Brady will soon slow down and retire and that will most likely effect his numbers. I think bringing in another WR option may as well too.Bump Gronkowski must be replacing Bump Finley.

Why Top 10? Why not top 9?

 

[Sabertooth]

I was lampooned in my thread for stating Adrian Peterson's value had peaked as well.

That's not why.

No, the actual reason was that I challenged conventional wisdom.

 

[Sabertooth]

Its not really about the position, its about the points advantage you get from starting him. At RB for example in one of my leagues. The RB1 average PPG is 7 more than the RB12. At TE, Gronk is TE1 and is scoring 11 more PPG than the TE12...actually all the way up to the TE8. So I am gaining a larger weekly advantage with Gronk than I would be if I owned Lesean McCoy or Ray Rice...plus Gronk will most likely last longer in the league. He is pretty untradeable to me. Would take a Ray Rice, Aaron Rodgers type player and most likely nobody would move that. I'm fine with that too.

This is exactly why Gronk is right now one of the most valuable players in fantasy football.

I have a hard time believing Gronk will repeat or break his own record breaking season.. It could happen but the stats dont show it is likely. Also, behind tom brady is a young ryan mallet.. so to say gronk looses value as an early dynasty draft due to TB retiring soon might not be accurate. The fantasy literature often tells us that young Qb's check down or use the TE more so than experienced QB's until they learn the system or get comfortable playing pro ball.. which would be a benefit to Gronk's value.. Mallet having a huge arm would help to open up the TE pass' as DB's have to cover the whole field.. It will be interesting to see where he goes in start up dynasties next year.. I doubt he makes it out of the second round...The way he is playing this season its almost like starting another O player..

I recall this past preseason many stating that they figured Mallet to be the top dynasty prospect at QB to boot. Ahead of Cam, Gabbert, and Locker. Obviously Cam is better than expected, but Mallet has done nothing to show he won't be a top prospect.

 

[doowain]

I was lampooned in my thread for stating Adrian Peterson's value had peaked as well.

That's not why.

No, the actual reason was that I challenged conventional wisdom.

Swing and a miss. Want to go for 3?

 

[Sinn Fein]

Its not really about the position, its about the points advantage you get from starting him. At RB for example in one of my leagues. The RB1 average PPG is 7 more than the RB12. At TE, Gronk is TE1 and is scoring 11 more PPG than the TE12...actually all the way up to the TE8. So I am gaining a larger weekly advantage with Gronk than I would be if I owned Lesean McCoy or Ray Rice...plus Gronk will most likely last longer in the league. He is pretty untradeable to me. Would take a Ray Rice, Aaron Rodgers type player and most likely nobody would move that. I'm fine with that too.

This is exactly why Gronk is right now one of the most valuable players in fantasy football.

I have a hard time believing Gronk will repeat or break his own record breaking season.. It could happen but the stats dont show it is likely. Also, behind tom brady is a young ryan mallet.. so to say gronk looses value as an early dynasty draft due to TB retiring soon might not be accurate. The fantasy literature often tells us that young Qb's check down or use the TE more so than experienced QB's until they learn the system or get comfortable playing pro ball.. which would be a benefit to Gronk's value.. Mallet having a huge arm would help to open up the TE pass' as DB's have to cover the whole field.. It will be interesting to see where he goes in start up dynasties next year.. I doubt he makes it out of the second round...The way he is playing this season its almost like starting another O player..

I recall this past preseason many stating that they figured Mallet to be the top dynasty prospect at QB to boot. Ahead of Cam, Gabbert, and Locker. Obviously Cam is better than expected, but Mallet has done nothing to show he won't be a top prospect.

Not to mention that it seems many young QBs have more confidence in their TEs than in throwing to a WR down the field.

 

[Spike]

But if that TE is scoring higher than the top RB or WR outright, I think his value accelerates quite a bit. Different philosophies I guess.

It seems the different philosophy is how you're predicting the future. Gronk currently outscoring RBx doesn't necessarily lead me to believe he will outscore him the remainder of the season, next season, or in three seasons.

Isn't the opposite also true though? What is the evidence that a particular back will outscore him?

Maybe this is the discussion point. Do you feel Gronkowski is going to set all new standards for the TE spot? If we forget about names and instead just say historically how valuable is the top TE in comparison to all other players available we might get to the answer. I think in my 20 plus years of playing fantasy football the earliest I remember seeing a TE drafted was at the end of round 2 (I think pick 24). Generally, I believe the top TE has gone off the board more from mid round 3 to mid round 4. I just have a real hard time putting Gronkowski in the top 20 players available say nothing about top 5. Safe to assume I will not be adding Gronkowski in my dynasty leagues I guess.

This is where I fall in the discussion also.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

I recall this past preseason many stating that they figured Mallet to be the top dynasty prospect at QB to boot. Ahead of Cam, Gabbert, and Locker. Obviously Cam is better than expected, but Mallet has done nothing to show he won't be a top prospect.

Maybe Mallet will favor Hernandez over Gronk?

 

[todisco1]

I recall this past preseason many stating that they figured Mallet to be the top dynasty prospect at QB to boot. Ahead of Cam, Gabbert, and Locker. Obviously Cam is better than expected, but Mallet has done nothing to show he won't be a top prospect.

Maybe Mallet will favor Hernandez over Gronk?

And maybe he won't be that good. I'm having a hard time with people saying Gronk won't skip a beat with a quarterback other than Brady. It's certainly possible, but it's clearly speculation and I don't think the odds are great that a guy like Mallet would make Gronk just as productive.

 

[Sabertooth]

Brady could play for 5 more years. Has he given any hints about retiring? His skills are as sharp as ever. No decline to speak of.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Brady could play for 5 more years. Has he given any hints about retiring? His skills are as sharp as ever. No decline to speak of.

Agreed, particularly considering the fact that defensive players aren't even allowed to tackle him anymore...

 

[Sabertooth]

Brady could play for 5 more years. Has he given any hints about retiring? His skills are as sharp as ever. No decline to speak of.

Agreed, particularly considering the fact that defensive players aren't even allowed to tackle him anymore...

Good point. And actually quite valid even if it was meant tongue in cheek.

 

[tdmills]

Brady could play for 5 more years. Has he given any hints about retiring? His skills are as sharp as ever. No decline to speak of.

Manning never missed a game and then...Just sayin

 

[Sabertooth]

Brady could play for 5 more years. Has he given any hints about retiring? His skills are as sharp as ever. No decline to speak of.

Manning never missed a game and then...Just sayin

Exactly, which is why discounting one player based on speculative injuries to him or another is foolish. Any one of them could go down during any game.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Brady could play for 5 more years. Has he given any hints about retiring? His skills are as sharp as ever. No decline to speak of.

Manning never missed a game and then...Just sayi

So you're downgrading Jennings because Rodgers could break his neck this week also?

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Even if something happens to Brady, I personally think it likely that Gronk is a great player anyway. I haven't watched every Pats game or anything, but in the games I have seen, Gronk has looked like an absolute freak. He's as big as the DEs and also has elite athleticism. Brady is what has him setting all-time records, sure. IMO, though, Gronkowski looks good enough to be in the mix for TE1 moving forward regardless of who's playing QB. The fact that he gets to play with Brady for a while is icing on the cake, really.

 

[Norman Paperman]

And, this is why it is foolish to draft gronk early next year...

 

[TheFootballJesus]

They're doubling Gronk and Hernandez is getting wide open.

By the same logic you would've said drafting Calvin in the first was foolish before today.

 

[Miscellaneous]

And, this is why it is foolish to draft gronk early next year...

Which one would you draft in the first round?Calvin vs. Gronk:

20.8 / 14.6

14.9 / 20.6

22.8 / 22.9

21.6 / 1.5

19.0 / 3.1

11.3 / 7.4

17.5 / BYE

18.5 / 9.4

BYE / 16.1

8.1 / 23.3

8.9 / 21.6

10.9 / 11.9

6.9 / 24.6

4.0 / 28.0

33.4 / 5.3

Honestly, what's the difference?

 

[RavenLunatic]

Hernandez is a TE in name only and they benefit each other. A legit deep WR will do wonders for all. Not to forget Welker... lol.

 

[mstumpy50]

I offered 2012 1.3 and Olsen for Gronkowski just before our trade deadline and it didn't even phase the guy. However he was under the assumption that he avg. 25 a game. In reality he averages 17 in our league but that's just ahead of Calvin and Welker so I can't really blame the guy. Was thinking after next weekend to throw together a deal with Olsen, the Baldwin brothers, Felix and a later pick to see if I could make it happen but who knows.

 

[rct]

mstumpy50 - could you please also include the rosters of all the other teams in your league in your signature line? And maybe you could add their overall won/loss records and draft picks so we don't miss anything.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

mstumpy50 - could you please also include the rosters of all the other teams in your league in your signature line? And maybe you could add their overall won/loss records so we don't miss anything.

According to his sig, his league gives -.4 points for each carry...what??

 

[dgreen]

mstumpy50 - could you please also include the rosters of all the other teams in your league in your signature line? And maybe you could add their overall won/loss records so we don't miss anything.

According to his sig, his league gives -.4 points for each carry...what??

And 0.2 for each yard. So, each carry and every two yards net out to zero. 25 carries for 50 yards would be 0 points.

 

[mstumpy50]

That is correct you need to average over 2.0 ypc to even score positive points on run plays. It makes the guys with the high ypc that much more valuable in our league. The reason we adopted this scoring was back in the 90's (we ran as a redraft) we got tired of seeing guys run 30 times for 100 yards outscore a guy that ran it 20 for 90. So for example I put in Felix over Mathews this week because I liked his ypc and reception opportunities better than Ryan and thought they were about even in touchdown chances. So Felix went 22-108 = 12.8 in rushing points. Mathews 26-90 = 7.6 rushing points but wound up getting 2 touchdowns so I would have been better going with him. It just adds a different twist to the game.