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Dynasty Joe Williams RB 49ers (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Biabreakable
- Start date
One thing I disagree with on Joe Williams is the notion that he fills the Tevin Coleman role in Shanahan's offense. I disagree for 2 reasons:
1. Coleman is a much better athlete than Williams, he's multiple steps faster, which isn't a knock on Williams and more an asset that Coleman has.
2. I'm not sure that role exists for anyone other than Tevin Coleman in Atlanta's offense. Kyle Shanahan has roughly a decade of play calling experience, from Houston to Washington to Cleveland to finally Atlanta. None of those other stops had a guy in a role like Coleman's, and 2 of those stops had a guy with Carlos Hyde's size(Foster, Morris) handling tons of work. Morris ceded 3rd down work, and a handful of carries to Roy Helu, and that is a fair expectation for Williams in my opinion.
If (big if as always) Hyde stays healthy, I'd be shocked if Williams got more than 30% of the workload. Hyde is a FAR greater runner than Williams (Hyde is a top-10 in the NFL runner) and I highly doubt the 2017 49ers will look anything like the 2016 Falcons, its just not realistic. Williams feels like fool's gold to me. Maybe worth a handcuff to Hyde owners, but not somebody I'd even consider a top-60 dynasty RB at the moment. Honestly, I think he may have more redraft value than dynasty value, since he could easily be replaced by an even higher pick if/when Hyde leaves.
1. Coleman is a much better athlete than Williams, he's multiple steps faster, which isn't a knock on Williams and more an asset that Coleman has.
2. I'm not sure that role exists for anyone other than Tevin Coleman in Atlanta's offense. Kyle Shanahan has roughly a decade of play calling experience, from Houston to Washington to Cleveland to finally Atlanta. None of those other stops had a guy in a role like Coleman's, and 2 of those stops had a guy with Carlos Hyde's size(Foster, Morris) handling tons of work. Morris ceded 3rd down work, and a handful of carries to Roy Helu, and that is a fair expectation for Williams in my opinion.
If (big if as always) Hyde stays healthy, I'd be shocked if Williams got more than 30% of the workload. Hyde is a FAR greater runner than Williams (Hyde is a top-10 in the NFL runner) and I highly doubt the 2017 49ers will look anything like the 2016 Falcons, its just not realistic. Williams feels like fool's gold to me. Maybe worth a handcuff to Hyde owners, but not somebody I'd even consider a top-60 dynasty RB at the moment. Honestly, I think he may have more redraft value than dynasty value, since he could easily be replaced by an even higher pick if/when Hyde leaves.
Nero
Footballguy
I wonder how you come to the conclusion that Coleman is a much better athlete and is multiple steps faster. All we have is that Coleman ran a 4.40 at his pro day and Williams ran a 4.42 at his(4.41 at the combine). The 10'5 broad jump, 35" vert, and 4.19 shuttle are pretty good marks by Williams. If Coleman had tested, I would have expected similar numbers in the broad jump and vertical. Williams' shuttle surprised me, because changing directions didn't seem like a strength; I doubt Coleman would have bested that number, since it's not at strength for him either. Given they are virtually the same size, I'd say Williams compares very well to Coleman.
I agree with most of this, but for point 2, how do you factor in that (supposedly) Shanahan pounded the table for him and convinced them to not only put him back on their board but to trade up to get him? He may not be good enough to handle it, but it certainly seems like Shanahan at least plans on using him in his offense.
mcintyre1
Footballguy
Looks like he got added overnight. Threw in a bid in my Zealots league, why the hell not?
kutta
Footballguy
They had zero depth behind Hyde and still didn't draft a RB until round 4. Shanahan probably would have pounded the table for just about anyone at that point.
If the articles are true, Shanahan certainly seemed to specifically target Williams. If they just wanted "a body", they wouldn't have traded up.kutta said:
I own Hyde as well, but IMO it's wishful thinking to believe that they don't plan on getting him involved- I'm just hoping he isn't very good.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Some of you are fairly obtuse on this issue. I'm an OSU fan and a staunch defender of Carlos Hyde but if you don't think Shanahans system doesn't make him replaceable I don't think you've paid attention to the NFL for the past 20 years. Williams has ease of access to a starting spot, elite athleticism and in a tried and true system. I would much rather be taking a chance on a back in a Shanahan system then a lot of other places.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
They also traded for Kapri Bibbs. In fact they traded for Bibbs before they traded up to draft Williams as far as the chronological order of their actions to add RB players who fit their system.
49ers trade up to take Utah RB Joe Williams in NFL draft
The trade for Bibbs was
49er give 2018 4th round pick for pick 177 (5th round 2017) and Kapri Bibbs. So a lower level of investment than they allocated to Joe Williams. The 49ers also signed Tim Hightowaer during free agency. There are a of different players competing for these back up roster spots. I do think most 4th round draft picks do make the cut down to 53 players.
squistion
Footballguy
Feeling better and better about investing big in Williams in my dynasty leagues:
Chris Whitman @WhitmansEnd27 5h5 hours ago
Santa Rosa says Hyde has looked like "the slowest and most indecisive running back on the team" at 49ers OTAs.
http://www.playerline.com/nfl/newsitem/the-santa-rosa-press-democrat-says-carlos-hyde-has-looked-like-the-slowest-and-most-indecisive-runni?$deeplink_path=newsitem-2290047&$fallback_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.playerline.com%2Fnfl%2Fnewsitem%2Fthe-santa-rosa-press-democrat-says-carlos-hyde-has-looked-like-the-slowest-and-most-indecisive-runni&_branch_match_id=296289105551771766
Chris Whitman @WhitmansEnd27 5h5 hours ago
Santa Rosa says Hyde has looked like "the slowest and most indecisive running back on the team" at 49ers OTAs.
http://www.playerline.com/nfl/newsitem/the-santa-rosa-press-democrat-says-carlos-hyde-has-looked-like-the-slowest-and-most-indecisive-runni?$deeplink_path=newsitem-2290047&$fallback_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.playerline.com%2Fnfl%2Fnewsitem%2Fthe-santa-rosa-press-democrat-says-carlos-hyde-has-looked-like-the-slowest-and-most-indecisive-runni&_branch_match_id=296289105551771766
-OZ-
Footballguy
Sure Joe will be involved. The question is the split, not whether one will get all the carries. Heck, I don't want hyde to get all the carries.
The vast majority of RBs, players for that matter, in the league are replaceable. When the time comes, I think hyde is the guy, at least for 17.
No RB gets all of the carries, I'm saying it's pretty clear that they plan on getting Williams more involved than a typical back-up RB.
JFS171
Footballguy
Williams turns 24 in September, so he'll play his rookie year at 24. Some guy named David Johnson turned 24 in December of his rookie year.While I understand the sentiment, especially when this chatter is likely geared towards the dynasty angle, does this really matter? The average NFL career lasts 3.5 years. Say the guy - since he was hand-picked by Shanahan himself - is a Tevin Coleman type right out of the gates. So what if he's 24?
Coleman was RB13 in per-game average in PPR formats last year. Is there anyone in here expecting more out of Williams? I would be tickled pink if I owned him and that was his ceiling.
Carlos Hyde is part of the old regime and comes with injury baggage. Williams was hand-picked by the current regime. Not saying that automatically means Hyde is nothing and Williams is the starter or even the lead back in a committee, but I think that a timeshare is certainly plausible and if Williams achieves top-15 PPR status by the time he's 25-26, well then that'd be awesome.
Disclaimer: I don't own Williams in any leagues.
I hope everyone traded that guy for being too old already...
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Guess who else turned 24 as a rookie? Some guy named Devante Booker. What's his value look like as a 25 year old 2nd year player that didn't capitalize immediately when the opportunity presented itself? Not good, and a whole lot worse than the typical 22-23 year old 2nd year player with the same resume.
Clearly some old rookie RBs can pan out as you've indicated (though I'd say 3rd vs 4th round isn't an immaterial gap for RB pedigree), the risk is that they don't carry the developmental upside of a similar RB prospect that's 2-3 years younger. Thus if the old rookie swings and misses, his value plummets instantly.
Best of luck with the Williams lottery ticket.
squistion
Footballguy
24 year old rookie looked good tonight...7 carries for 60 yards, an 8.57 per-carry avg.Guess who else turned 24 as a rookie? Some guy named Devante Booker. What's his value look like as a 25 year old 2nd year player that didn't capitalize immediately when the opportunity presented itself? Not good, and a whole lot worse than the typical 22-23 year old 2nd year player with the same resume.
Clearly some old rookie RBs can pan out as you've indicated (though I'd say 3rd vs 4th round isn't an immaterial gap for RB pedigree), the risk is that they don't carry the developmental upside of a similar RB prospect that's 2-3 years younger. Thus if the old rookie swings and misses, his value plummets instantly.
Best of luck with the Williams lottery ticket.
https://twitter.com/1SportsOutlet/status/896217567907414016
A few of his runs...
\https://twitter.com/ahills101/status/896226752367796224
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TripItUp
Footballguy
kutta
Footballguy
HairySasquatch
Footballguy
kutta
Footballguy
matttyl
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Did Matt Brieda get snaps ahead of Williams?
The ones playing for a job aren't very good (relatively speaking). The ones who have a job don't try because they don't want to get hurt. Preseason games, especially week 1 are as meaningless as if they played a game of cornhole at the 50 yard line. Maybe week 3 games have a little bit of meaning but making observations on anything else is a waste of time.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
What an odd statement. The only guys who have nothing to gain are either sitting or playing very few downs because they are locked in starters and the coaches already know what they have.
Every other player on the field is either trying to earn a very lucrative job in lieu of what are most probably much less desirable alternatives for employment, or are trying to increase their earning power and longevity by moving up the depth chart. Every one of these guys know how limited their career envelope is to earn this kind of money and that it can be truncated in the blink of an eye.
And your position is that they aren't trying hard?
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Sure, I've made observations that didn't pan out. Who hasn't? But I'm pretty sure you are passing along poor advice.
I have these guys on my roster because I paid attention to preseason and added them via FA before others in my league had a chance:
CJ Anderson
Jalen Richard
Cameron Meredith
Willie Snead
Tyrell Williams
Cameron Brate
Everson Griffin
Brandon Marshall
Zach Orr
Tahir Whitehead
Jahleel Addae
Bradley McDougald
Shawn Williams
.
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SameSongNDance
Footballguy
In the event Hyde misses time (which is admittedly likely) I'm not so sure anyone is going to dominate touches in this backfield. Hightower is still technically #2 on the depth chart and Brieda still saw work ahead of Williams.
Williams undoubtedly looked good, but the situation isn't great. At best I could see him splitting reps and since he doesn't offer much in the pass catching/blocking department, the fact that SF will find themselves in a fair amount of negative game scripts makes me think his upside is limited even if Hyde were to go down. He's not a top priority for me as far as lottery tickets are concerned.
TripItUp
Footballguy
TripItUp
Footballguy
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Right.. being the best RB on a team and being considered a lottery ticket are not mutually exclusive propositions.
chinawildman
Footballguy
Would a "scalded dog" be an apt description?
https://twitter.com/AaronNagler/status/854872054889406464
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
lol I'd argue fantasy wise he is likely 5th this year behind Hyde, Hightower, Breida, and Kyle J. He may be a guy for the future but he isn't going to do anything this season
Best back on the team, eh? He's currently being outplayed by a guy named Raheem Mostert.
socrates
Footballguy
That says about all you need to know. :( Sadly, Mostert may be a roster casualty in favor of Joe Williams based almost solely on the Niners' draft investment, despite the fact that Mostert brings even more speed than Williams and is a solid contributor on special teams.
Williams' measurables and workout numbers are no doubt intriguing. The tape on Williams can be mesmerizing; he shows glimpses of elite talent as a runner. However, his "retirement" from football is very concerning, he has not shown he can contribute in the passing game (either as a receiver or a blocker), and he has had issues with fumbling. I moved Williams down my draft boards such that I was never going to draft him, although I did acquire him in one dynasty league as part of a multi-player trade. He is still a tenuous hold if you have him, despite his unimpressive showing so far, but I don't know how long you commit a roster spot to him. He could quit football before Halloween.
Williams has been very open about discussing his battle with mental illness, and I hope he has overcome those demons. I would love to see Williams succeed, but he has a long way to go at this point.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
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Bronco Billy
Footballguy
But Shanahan pounded the table...
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
agree to disagree, season starts next week and he hasn't done a thing to move up the depth chart
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
I said he would be 5th this season, not next. Other than injury I don't see much of an opportunity for a guy in this office that can't block or catch. Just an opinion but seems like the coach has also cooled on him since he is also the OC and the man determining the depth chartHankmoody said:
