Dynasty Leagues - trading the 1.01 rookie pick (1 Viewer)

[Spike]

This is something I've thought about and don't have a firmly held opinion one way or the other, but I thought it might spark some discussion, so what the heck.

For dynasty leagues, for those with the 1.01 pick, there can be temptation to trade it.

Do you think the pick is valued more (for FF purposes) before the NFL rookie draft or right after?

Do you think that owners who are looking to acquire it always look at the brightest outlook for where that pick could go instead of where he is likely to go?

ETA - Before or after the NFL Rookie Draft.

 

[Road Warriors]

You missed a choice... it depends.

1.01 rookie pick is more valuable before the draft if the top talent ends up in a bad situation ( say ADP went to Detroit under Martz )

1.01 pick is more valuable after the draft it top talent ends up in a great situation. ADP is a prime example here, running behind Hutch & McKinnie.

 

[sparkky]

after the NFL but right before/during the FFL draft. I've always thought some guys get caught up in the "FFL draft feeding frenzy" and make offers they otherwise wouldn't make. IMHO

 

[Challenge Everything]

February 10ish to the Friday night before the NFL draft.

 

[SSOG]

I'd say that, on average, the #1 draft pick holds equal value all year long. There's more RISK associated to it before the draft, but there's also a higher potential reward. I mean, right now, it's possible that Darren McFadden ends up in Denver. It's also possible he ends up in Arizona. High risk, high reward. After the draft, that risk/reward is decreased, since we know exactly what kind of situation the #1 draft pick has landed in.

Now, if you're asking when the PERCEIVED value is highest... that'd be right before the fantasy draft, because everyone at that point is on information overload, having convinced themselves that every single guy at the top of the rookie draft is a sure-fire Hall of Famer and that if they don't land them when they have a chance they'll spend the rest of their lives regretting it.

 

[FUBAR]

You missed a choice... it depends. 1.01 rookie pick is more valuable before the draft if the top talent ends up in a bad situation ( say ADP went to Detroit under Martz )1.01 pick is more valuable after the draft it top talent ends up in a great situation. ADP is a prime example here, running behind Hutch & McKinnie.

If you look at the last five years:2007 - Peterson - up2006 - Reggie Bush - down2005 - Brown / Benson / Caddillac Williams - probably equal2004 - Steven Jackson - down2003 - McGahee / Charles Rogers / LJ - probably equalIt appears that in only one of these years did the top pick actually land in a spot we preferred at the time, thus the pick's value only increased one year. In two others, it probably held steady.Then again, value is relative. Are you asking about the value of a veteran player you can acquire, or a multi-pick deal? IIRC, in many years value of picks between 4-7ish actually increase somewhat as players like Maroney, Addai, Arrington, Bell, and Julius Jones hit prime spots despite not being seen as a top pick before the draft.So, in short, if I'm trading down, I'm likely to do it before the draft. If I'm trading for a veteran player, I'm waiting until I get a deal I like and not caring about when I trade.

 

[Loan Sharks]

I think maybe, you will have more buyers before the NFL draft but not necessarily after the players are slotted. People will either be happy with who they think they can get or not have the juice to move up to the top pick.

So after the NFL draft you may be able to get more from a coach who "has to have" a guy but you may get less if there are no players that are must haves. A while ago I had the number one with William Green, T.J.Duckett and Deshaun Foster as your top RBs people werent beating down my door if you know what I mean.