Dynasty philosophy: Why don't people "go for it"? (1 Viewer)

[barackdhouse]

I think this is a great example of a deal that is pretty much a slam dunk in Kittles favor from a macro level view of their careers but the value for this year is completely in Wallers favor.

I don't see myself taking that risk in the scenario that you describe if I were that owner, but I have seen guys do stuff like this successfully before and make a run. 

Its possible that Kittle doesn't make the same impact later on in his career as he did in his best season which was under some unique circumstances. SF has some good WR now that they didn't have then, they are in better shape than the Eagles on that front I think, just looking at the opportunity side of things.

When I say overall value I am talking about where the assets are valued in a start up. That is a clear win for the Kittle and 2nd round pick side of the deal and in the long run will likely net more points than the Waller side will.

Yeah Kittle comes with some downside for sure. Flipping him for a (perceived) greater profit may also be in play for me.

To reinforce what some others have said, though, as a bit of a counterpoint (to my argument), "win-now" trades are arguably (but probably) the worst time to sell picks. It is also perhaps a high-risk high reward opportunity, though, especially when it comes to rolling the dice on Toilet Bowl projections in leagues like FFPC where the bottom 6 compete for 1.01-1.06. My fringe playoff trade came within an inch of me holding if not the favorite for the 1.01, one of the better squads in the TB and a solid chance at it.  And although I downgraded from Waller to Ebron, and I sold J Williams for this guy's 1st (to a different owner earlier), I didn't leave anything on the table with regards to my boxscores and I would have missed the playoffs as it turned out, even with the 51.50 on my side. *He* would have missed without Waller and I would still have his 1st in the TB, but I never would have gotten that close without being willing to move on from Williams (even though I get that may have been a mistake) and Waller. So as much as I am willing to make a win now move, I am also willing to risk some of my own win-now capital in order to help my team overall. Generally speaking if I can make a decent play for a fringe playoff team's draft pick(s), I want to do that.  All that is to say I'm not sure how crazy I am about that Kittle trade if I hadn't felt decent about my chances with Ebron. But still a smash accept. 

So, in this one I really tried hard to thread the needle between win-now and build for later. This team was strong enough to sell Williams and Waller and still possibly make noise in the playoffs. Didn't happen. But I did gain some draft capital and clear some roster space (an underrated challenge in FFPC as much as it gets talked about I am more and more convinced every year that leveraging this fact is important) while essentially remaining as strong for the potential playoffs that didn't happen.

 

[domvin]

Maybe he figures that if you're looking for a first, there's little chance you'd take a second. Maybe he doesn't think Goedert with Ertz back and Hurts starting isn't going to move the needle.

There is a reason you're willing to move Goedert for a 1st after-all. 

Generally speaking I think most people do make trades to "go for it" when they have the chance - but some teams just value the draft. The last two drafts probably further spoiled us in thinking that late first can net you studs like Aiyuk, Claypool, Higgins or Gibson types.

This has the most merit  in my opinion.  Owners seem more reluctant to part with picks off a year with an influx of talent, especially like thks year.

Plus, a year like this year, with all the Covid stuff.    Just seems like no matter how good your team is on paper, it's a very slippery slope to get a title, yet alone the playoffs.

As for me....the years  'I go for it".......well, I usually don't get there, so history can leave a bad taste there.    Once bitten, twice shy

 

[Pipes]

This is always a dilemma.  Last year in my modified dynasty league 1/2 way into the season I was leading my division.  My team had overachieved but since I was leading I traded some draft picks to go for it.  Well realty set in and the trades didn't help as much and ended up missing the playoffs so that caused me to start behind the 8 eight a bit this year.  2020 same thing happens my team overachieves slightly and I'm 1 game out of the playoffs a few week ago at the trade deadline with 3 to play.  Looking at my roster compared to the others I decide to be a seller.  Turns out I would've had the final playoff spot had I stood pat.  Though I would've been a huge underdog for the first round of the playoffs.  Damned if you do damned if you don't.

I'm in great shape for next year with the young players I've acquired (Dobbins and Higgins) and I've got a lot of draft capital now.  I feel like I'm in much better shape starting next year than I was starting this year but you just never know how the season is going to shake out.  That's what makes this such a fun hobby.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

As for me....the years  'I go for it".......well, I usually don't get there, so history can leave a bad taste there.    Once bitten, twice shy

Far better it is to dare mighty things, to win glorious triumphs, even though checkered by failure, than to take rank with those poor spirits who neither enjoy much nor suffer much, because they live in the gray twilight that knows neither victory nor defeat.

-Theodore Roosevelt

 

[BearsFan4Life]

I just made a going for it trade.

Gave: Akers and Fuller

Got: AJones

Love AJones schedule in the playoffs.  I did this only with the news McCaffrey has the new injury and can't say he is 100% playing to go along with whatever is going on with Mixon.  I am now loaded at RB and can start 3 .. McCaffrey, Henry, Chubb, AJones, Mixon.  Only need to start 1 WR and have Hopkins and Godwin with Kelce at TE.  Can trade a RB next year for something if need be. 

I always try and go for it when I have the chance. Never know what may happen next year.

 

[dmac37]

I do not like to jeopardize the future to win now but will move a late 1st and beyond pick for more of a win now mode. My preference is to find players that seem to be perceived as having too low of dynasty value and try and pounce. Also move players that scream sell high.

I made 3 moves during this season that should pay off for this year in the and the future:

Traded a late 1st for Montgomery once Cohen was done for the year

Traded OBJ (week before the injury) and Tonyan for A. Robinson and a mid first round pick

Traded Fournette and RoJo for Diontae Johnson and J. Williams (Jones cuff)

I was targeting both Monty and Diontae as buy low targets after looking over each of their dynasty values a month ago, A Rob was a proposed gift.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Here's one that I thought would be a slam dunk.

Non-ppr guy is 12-2 with a good, not great team. He had my 1.2 pick so I offer Chubb for the 1.2 and his late first. Reject, no counter.

What...he's going to get a better player than Chubb with the 1.2?

 

[Biabreakable]

Here's one that I thought would be a slam dunk.

Non-ppr guy is 12-2 with a good, not great team. He had my 1.2 pick so I offer Chubb for the 1.2 and his late first. Reject, no counter.

What...he's going to get a better player than Chubb with the 1.2?

Why are you trying to do this?

Who do you think is going to be the pick at 2?

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Why are you trying to do this?

Who do you think is going to be the pick at 2?

I already have a good idea because I have the 1.1 too.

 

[Biabreakable]

I already have a good idea because I have the 1.1 too.

I think I'd rather have Chubb.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

I think I'd rather have Chubb.

For the next year or so, yeah. This is a going all the way start over team. 

 

[Biabreakable]

For the next year or so, yeah. This is a going all the way start over team. 

Yeah I gotcha. Some good WR this year.

Good luck. Keep trying.