Dynasty - Pick v Studs. DISCUSS (1 Viewer)

[Soulfly3]

Are draft picks overvalued in Dynasty?

We had a pretty good, albeit short discussion in the dynasty trades thread, about what you’re have in this deal:

Amari Cooper

V

1.06 + 2021 rounds 1-4 (projected to be late round picks)

It seems the consensus wanted the picks. But why?

What is the hit rate on picks? I was personally a pretty big advocate of hoarding picks and swinging for the fences, but found more often than not, it was a whiff. And I like to think I am a pretty good college scout (I watch a lot of ball), and have made some great calls… but missed big on many too.

Why do we prefer unknowns to studs?

 

[Zyphros]

Of course draft picks are over valued.  Only half of them hit usually.  

I think it comes to having "your guy".  If I owned player X, maybe I just took him on because the value was there.  Or I took over an orphan and want to purge it of "not-my-guys".  Draft picks have the ability to choose who you want, or trade away to get who you want and accrue value.  I think that's the appeal.  

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Sometimes picks are overrated, sometimes veterans are.

Cooper, to me, is overrated. He's like Diggs - blows up then disappears. End of year stats look good, but week to week he can either bring you or cost you a win.

 

[robb]

It was/still is a great discussion in that thread. Thank you for making it's own thread Soulfly!

A good example (besides the DJ Moore topic) is: Is Calvin Ridley, WR Atlanta worth the 1.06 pick in this year's rookie draft? Or, does one need a "sweetener" on either end?

 

[BigTex]

Are draft picks overvalued in Dynasty?

We had a pretty good, albeit short discussion in the dynasty trades thread, about what you’re have in this deal:

Amari Cooper

V

1.06 + 2021 rounds 1-4 (projected to be late round picks)

It seems the consensus wanted the picks. But why?

What is the hit rate on picks? I was personally a pretty big advocate of hoarding picks and swinging for the fences, but found more often than not, it was a whiff. And I like to think I am a pretty good college scout (I watch a lot of ball), and have made some great calls… but missed big on many too.

Why do we prefer unknowns to studs?

I read a few years back that the hit rate was like 20% depends on the round but the rate is not that good at all.

Tex

 

[BigTex]

It was/still is a great discussion in that thread. Thank you for making it's own thread Soulfly!

A good example (besides the DJ Moore topic) is: Is Calvin Ridley, WR Atlanta worth the 1.06 pick in this year's rookie draft? Or, does one need a "sweetener" on either end?

Ridley is the same as Cooper in terms of hits and misses on any given week. It could be a different story once Julio is gone but time will only tell. This year I'd rather have the 1.06 pick which I've been trying to get but the owner is not budging.

Tex

 

[FreeBaGeL]

What is the hit rate on picks? I was personally a pretty big advocate of hoarding picks and swinging for the fences, but found more often than not, it was a whiff. And I like to think I am a pretty good college scout (I watch a lot of ball), and have made some great calls… but missed big on many too.

Why do we prefer unknowns to studs?

What is the hit rate on vets outside of the top 15 or so?

Hint: It's a lot worse than you think.

Cooper's ADP right now is 2.10.  Here are the guys with ADP in that same range last year (2.04 - 3.04)

James Conner
Dalvin Cook
LeVeon Bell
Todd Gurley
Travis Kelce
Stefon Diggs
Kerryon Johnson
Keenan Allen
George Kittle
Antonio Brown
Adam Thielen
Brandin Cooks

I would say half of those guys were outright busts.  Only 2 of the 12 (Cook/Kittle) saw their ADP rise from where it was at this time last year.  9 of the 12 (everyone except Cook/Kittle/Kelce) are now worth more than a full round less via ADP than they were at this time last year.

Once you start getting into the 4th rate of startup ADP and beyond the bust rate becomes monumental.

I would take Cooper in the trade mentioned in the original post.  But the bust rate of vets outside of the truly elite top guys is the most underrated thing in fantasy football.  I want to mash my head against the wall everytime I see someone mention how often rookies bust or how they are an "unknown" relative to guys who "have done it on an NFL field".
 

 

[Boston]

I think some simply enjoy having picks and landing that next big thing...they enjoy that part of it as much as the actual fantasy game-day....that isn't a knock because this is a hobby and everyone has their way of enjoying it.

 

[Zyphros]

I would take Cooper in the trade mentioned in the original post.  But the bust rate of vets outside of the truly elite top guys is the most underrated thing in fantasy football.  I want to mash my head against the wall everytime I see someone mention how often rookies bust or how they are an "unknown" relative to guys who "have done it on an NFL field".
 

It's a very under the radar conversation that should be happening.  The buy now vets for "win now mode" are usually not worth it.  They bust all the time and you're crippling your dynasty teams future by taking on the wrong person.  

This year alone people are mentioning Robert Woods, Tyler Lockett, Adam Thielen, Julio Jones, and a bunch more as win now pieces.  The reality is that only 1 or 2 of them will be worth it, the others will leave those franchises fighting through waiver claims to piece together end of their bench for the next year.  

 

[Snorkelson]

It's a very under the radar conversation that should be happening.  The buy now vets for "win now mode" are usually not worth it.  They bust all the time and you're crippling your dynasty teams future by taking on the wrong person.  

This year alone people are mentioning Robert Woods, Tyler Lockett, Adam Thielen, Julio Jones, and a bunch more as win now pieces.  The reality is that only 1 or 2 of them will be worth it, the others will leave those franchises fighting through waiver claims to piece together end of their bench for the next year.  

Lockett isn’t that old is he? 2 yrs of excellent red zone efficiency, 1st year wasn’t a fluke. Metcalf just take some pressure off him right? Don’t disagree with your statement, just surprised to see his name on that list.

 

[Zyphros]

Lockett isn’t that old is he? 2 yrs of excellent red zone efficiency, 1st year wasn’t a fluke. Metcalf just take some pressure off him right? Don’t disagree with your statement, just surprised to see his name on that list.

27, soon to be 28.  

 

[Boston]

It's a very under the radar conversation that should be happening.  The buy now vets for "win now mode" are usually not worth it.  They bust all the time and you're crippling your dynasty teams future by taking on the wrong person.  

This year alone people are mentioning Robert Woods, Tyler Lockett, Adam Thielen, Julio Jones, and a bunch more as win now pieces.  The reality is that only 1 or 2 of them will be worth it, the others will leave those franchises fighting through waiver claims to piece together end of their bench for the next year.  

The only one there that I really see being a win-now piece is Julio...the rest are solid players but definitely not guys in that category...you should be able to get that level of player without having much exposure.

 

[-OZ-]

Give me the stud v pick

I'm definitely taking Cooper in the original post. 

But I can buy into the concept of trading lower level veterans for picks if the value is there. I just think Cooper isn't lower level. 

 

[Soulfly3]

The only WRs I see in this draft having Cooper upside are Lamb and Shenault... My gut at times still says Higgins, but he is trending down hard these days. And shenault cant stay healthy.

I have zero shot at Lamb... 

So, for me it's a WR id settle on, and what id expect to be a late 1st next year, and who knows how that crop looks.

It was a no brainer for me. But Ill admit, SF3 of last season probably doesnt make this trade, cuz I was still in "picks are fire" mode. But picks have burned me enough now, to have swung the other direction

 

[dmac37]

Sometimes picks are overrated, sometimes veterans are.

Cooper, to me, is overrated. He's like Diggs - blows up then disappears. End of year stats look good, but week to week he can either bring you or cost you a win.

This, I think Cooper is a bad example.

 

[dmac37]

The only WRs I see in this draft having Cooper upside are Lamb and Shenault... My gut at times still says Higgins, but he is trending down hard these days. And shenault cant stay healthy.

I have zero shot at Lamb... 

So, for me it's a WR id settle on, and what id expect to be a late 1st next year, and who knows how that crop looks.

It was a no brainer for me. But Ill admit, SF3 of last season probably doesnt make this trade, cuz I was still in "picks are fire" mode. But picks have burned me enough now, to have swung the other direction

Sometimes it is better to have a consistent performer from your WR 1 than not knowing if your going to get 3 or 33 points any given week. 

 

[Soulfly3]

Sometimes it is better to have a consistent performer from your WR 1 than not knowing if your going to get 3 or 33 points any given week. 

sure, i get that. I also understand there's a new coach in town, that could really help that out (what im counting on)

I know Cooper's upside. Now I'm betting on Cooper's consistency.

 

[wgoldsph]

What is the hit rate on vets outside of the top 15 or so?

Hint: It's a lot worse than you think.

Cooper's ADP right now is 2.10.  Here are the guys with ADP in that same range last year (2.04 - 3.04)

James Conner
Dalvin Cook
LeVeon Bell
Todd Gurley
Travis Kelce
Stefon Diggs
Kerryon Johnson
Keenan Allen
George Kittle
Antonio Brown
Adam Thielen
Brandin Cooks

I would say half of those guys were outright busts.  Only 2 of the 12 (Cook/Kittle) saw their ADP rise from where it was at this time last year.  9 of the 12 (everyone except Cook/Kittle/Kelce) are now worth more than a full round less via ADP than they were at this time last year.

Once you start getting into the 4th rate of startup ADP and beyond the bust rate becomes monumental.

I would take Cooper in the trade mentioned in the original post.  But the bust rate of vets outside of the truly elite top guys is the most underrated thing in fantasy football.  I want to mash my head against the wall everytime I see someone mention how often rookies bust or how they are an "unknown" relative to guys who "have done it on an NFL field".
 

Four of the guys in red got hurt and Gurley was still an rb2.  So if you factor in that injury can happen to anyone at any time, that's really good odds.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Four of the guys in red got hurt and Gurley was still an rb2.  So if you factor in that injury can happen to anyone at any time, that's really good odds.

They were busts when they were healthy too.

 

[Biabreakable]

Lockett isn’t that old is he? 2 yrs of excellent red zone efficiency, 1st year wasn’t a fluke. Metcalf just take some pressure off him right? Don’t disagree with your statement, just surprised to see his name on that list.

He would be considered at the age apex right now. It took him a long time to fire (Baldwin was getting the most opportunity)  for fantasy although he has always been a very efficient WR.

 

[Biabreakable]

I would take Cooper in the trade mentioned in the original post.  But the bust rate of vets outside of the truly elite top guys is the most underrated thing in fantasy football.  I want to mash my head against the wall everytime I see someone mention how often rookies bust or how they are an "unknown" relative to guys who "have done it on an NFL field".

I think this gets baked into trade value calculators that do intrinsically give the veteran players their ADP values on average over history, because it only counts the hits while ignoring the misses.

It is a scientific way of approaching the question of how much is rookie pick X worth relative to the value of all players, but it is flawed without accounting for the fragility of the veteran players maintaining their ADP value.

 

[IHEARTFF]

Wr2s are where you start to look at trading them for 1st rounders. It’s a case by case basis, but generally speaking I would value WR1s > pick 1.1 > high end WR2s > rookie 1sts > low wr2s. 

 

[Soulfly3]

Would you take this trade today in a PPR league?

Amari Cooper

for 

Jeudy(if he's even there) or reager or clyde or akers or jefferson or mims + a late 2021 1st?

I sure wouldn't. 

But when I just see the picks.. last year, ya, SF3 probably does make that trade, but why? The more i see it, the less sense it ever made to me

 

[Snorkelson]

Would you take this trade today in a PPR league?

Amari Cooper

for 

Jeudy(if he's even there) or reager or clyde or akers or jefferson or mims + a late 2021 1st?

I sure wouldn't. 

But when I just see the picks.. last year, ya, SF3 probably does make that trade, but why? The more i see it, the less sense it ever made to me

I don’t do that, but let’s say you take your trade and make some moves- take the late 1st and turn it into say 1.12, and trade 3/4 for a late 2nd or early 3rd this year (say pick 26ish) So now you get 2 of those guys (possibly), someone at pick 26, and still have a 2021 2nd in your pocket to work with. 2/3/4 picks aren’t valuable, but they aren’t worthless either, can’t take them completely out of the equation. That said I think a lot depends on your drafting history and your confidence in player valuation to stay competitive long term. You basically have to have a roster that can compete for 2 years without adding anything because you don’t have draft capital. 

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Would you take this trade today in a PPR league?

Amari Cooper

for 

Jeudy(if he's even there) or reager or clyde or akers or jefferson or mims + a late 2021 1st?

I sure wouldn't. 

But when I just see the picks.. last year, ya, SF3 probably does make that trade, but why? The more i see it, the less sense it ever made to me

Yes.

 

[Soulfly3]

Yes.

and that's completely fine. 

but im tired of swinging and missing. I hit a decent amount too, but find the studs i try to trade for keep their value much better than the hit rate on rookies (whether picks involved in the trade or not)

as i said... Lamb aside there isnt really a rookie i see w a good chance hitting cooper territory. But that's just me

Of course some might and might even surpass him. but who?

 

[Andy Dufresne]

and that's completely fine. 

but im tired of swinging and missing. I hit a decent amount too, but find the studs i try to trade for keep their value much better than the hit rate on rookies (whether picks involved in the trade or not)

as i said... Lamb aside there isnt really a rookie i see w a good chance hitting cooper territory. But that's just me

Of course some might and might even surpass him. but who?

I agree, in general, except that I think there's a VERY limited number of guys that I would call "stud", which I define as close to can't miss. There's maybe less than ten.

And Cooper, for example, is not on that list.

 

[Soulfly3]

I agree, in general, except that I think there's a VERY limited number of guys that I would call "stud", which I define as close to can't miss. There's maybe less than ten.

And Cooper, for example, is not on that list.

he made my list, esp under a new coach. but i get why some might not put him there

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Cooper is just about the last WR I'd count on as being more of a sure-fire thing from a veteran.

This is a guy who's value and production has gone wildly up and down his entire career.  He has a tendency to disappear for huge stretches.  He gets hurt and dinged up a lot which ends up affecting his production on the field.  He just put up his best season which was WR15 ppg numbers while playing with a QB that probably just played the best season of his career and will regress next year (do we really think Dak is a consistent 5000/30 type QB?) across from a younger WR who just came on strong in his 2nd season and has the potential to take over the lead WR role.

If you told me to pick one of the top 15 WRs most likely to bust this year (and there will likely be 5-8 of them that bust) Cooper would be near or at the top of that list for me.

His ADP right now is right around where guys like Thielen/Cooks were last year, both of whom probably offered much safer perceived floors, and both of whom are now worth diddly squat now.

 

[Ilov80s]

Of course draft picks are over valued.  Only half of them hit usually.  

I think it comes to having "your guy".  If I owned player X, maybe I just took him on because the value was there.  Or I took over an orphan and want to purge it of "not-my-guys".  Draft picks have the ability to choose who you want, or trade away to get who you want and accrue value.  I think that's the appeal.  

I agree though our “known quantities” aren’t always as “known” as we like to think. See Todd Gurley 2 years ago, Brandin Cooks and Jared Goff a year ago. 

 

[Soulfly3]

His ADP right now is right around where guys like Thielen/Cooks were last year, both of whom probably offered much safer perceived floors, and both of whom are now worth diddly squat now.

Cooks had some decent pedigree coming out of college, but not close to cooper. Thielen? None. 

Cooper is just 25 and always been studly in the talent department going back as far as everyone can look up. 

That counts for me. 

As does having a good QB. My only worry is dak walking. Not cooper performing

 

[wgoldsph]

They were busts when they were healthy too.

Most of them got hurt early in the season and played through injuries the rest of the year.

Look at it this way, was Barkley at 1.1 a bad pick in redraft because he got injured?  He's probably going 1.2 in redraft this season.  Guys like Thielen, Connor, cooks and bell could all go in the 2/3 turn again depending on what happens in free agency and the draft.

I especially think Thielen should be a huge buy in ppr leagues as he's pretty much gaurenteed to see ten targets every week and redzone looks.

Would you take this trade today in a PPR league?

Amari Cooper

for 

Jeudy(if he's even there) or reager or clyde or akers or jefferson or mims + a late 2021 1st?

I sure wouldn't. 

But when I just see the picks.. last year, ya, SF3 probably does make that trade, but why? The more i see it, the less sense it ever made to me

What I look for more than anything in a "stud" is week to week consistency.  I love a guy who's getting ten targets every week. Cooper just doesn't have that.  Give me the two shots, especially if one of them is at lamb.

 

[Soulfly3]

What I look for more than anything in a "stud" is week to week consistency.  I love a guy who's getting ten targets every week. Cooper just doesn't have that.  Give me the two shots, especially if one of them is at lamb.

that leaves 2 WRs in the entire NFL. one of which in going on 32yrs old.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

that leaves 2 WRs in the entire NFL. one of which in going on 32yrs old.

Now you're catching on.

And if you're taking Julio, he doesn't count either.

Zero TDs in 12 of 16 games last year. Two 100 yard and one double digit receiving games weeks 4-14.

 

[Ilov80s]

Cooks had some decent pedigree coming out of college, but not close to cooper. Thielen? None. 

Cooper is just 25 and always been studly in the talent department going back as far as everyone can look up. 

That counts for me. 

As does having a good QB. My only worry is dak walking. Not cooper performing

Agree. Cooper is top shelf for dynasty right now. 

 

[Ilov80s]

Sometimes picks are overrated, sometimes veterans are.

Cooper, to me, is overrated. He's like Diggs - blows up then disappears. End of year stats look good, but week to week he can either bring you or cost you a win.

He is a little better in standard, but all the arrows on him are pointing in the right direction. 

 

[Soulfly3]

Now you're catching on.

And if you're taking Julio, he doesn't count either.

Zero TDs in 12 of 16 games last year. Two 100 yard and one double digit receiving games weeks 4-14.

Weeks 1-13 (regular fantasy season) Cooper was the NUMBER 7 OVERALL wr in our PPR league

Julio was #17.

Makes ya think

 

[wgoldsph]

that leaves 2 WRs in the entire NFL. one of which in going on 32yrs old.

I picked 10 because it was a nice round number.  After looking at the data from last season eight targets plus avg is what I really mean.  Cooper is .6 targets off.

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/targets/wr.php

 

[Soulfly3]

I picked 10 because it was a nice round number.  After looking at the data from last season eight targets plus avg is what I really mean.  Cooper is .6 targets off.

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/targets/wr.php

i assume a 100m+ contract and new coach will get him therr

 

[wgoldsph]

i assume a 100m+ contract and new coach will get him therr

It's possible.  I've just never been a fan, and am willing to let someone else benifit from his potential.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Most of them got hurt early in the season and played through injuries the rest of the year.

Look at it this way, was Barkley at 1.1 a bad pick in redraft because he got injured?  He's probably going 1.2 in redraft this season.  Guys like Thielen, Connor, cooks and bell could all go in the 2/3 turn again depending on what happens in free agency and the draft.

I especially think Thielen should be a huge buy in ppr leagues as he's pretty much gaurenteed to see ten targets every week and redzone looks.

This is a dynasty topic and we already have ADP to work off.  It's at least 1 round lower and in many cases much lower for all of those guys.

It's not like this is a one year phenomenon either.  Here is the same range in 2017.

Sammy Watkins
Brandin Cooks
Dez Bryant
Todd Gurley
Jordan Howard
Rob Gronkowski
Keenan Allen
Jay Ajayi
Doug Baldwin
Jarvis Landry
Alshon Jeffery
Shady McCoy

Meanwhile you could have drafted any of the top 4 rookies in the same range of startups that year (Davis, Fournette, Mixon, McCaffrey) instead of the "safer" vets from that god awful list.  Merely three years later 10 of the 12 guys on that list are virtually worthless.

3 of the 4 rookies drafted in that same range currently have a higher ADP than ALL TWELVE of the vets.

2016

Donte Moncrief
Jordan Mathews
Randall Cobb
Devonta Freeman
Kelvin Benjamin
Demaryius Thomas
Melvin Gordon
Cam Newton
Jordan Reed
Davante Parker
Terrelle Pryor

:X :X :X

 

[-OZ-]

Would you take this trade today in a PPR league?

Amari Cooper

for 

Jeudy(if he's even there) or reager or clyde or akers or jefferson or mims + a late 2021 1st?

I sure wouldn't. 

But when I just see the picks.. last year, ya, SF3 probably does make that trade, but why? The more i see it, the less sense it ever made to me

If I'm building maybe. If I'm contending nope. Cooper isn't really a guy you need to deal if you're building either as he could / should have another 5-10 years of production. 

I agree, in general, except that I think there's a VERY limited number of guys that I would call "stud", which I define as close to can't miss. There's maybe less than ten.

And Cooper, for example, is not on that list.

If there's only ten studs in the league, okay. I'd say there are closer to 25 I'd take over the package mentioned. 

I agree though our “known quantities” aren’t always as “known” as we like to think. See Todd Gurley 2 years ago, Brandin Cooks and Jared Goff a year ago. 

Goff had a down year, still finished as a QB1. While I'm not trading multiple firsts for any QB except Mahomes in most leagues, Goff qualifies as a "known" imo.

.

What I look for more than anything in a "stud" is week to week consistency.  I love a guy who's getting ten targets every week. Cooper just doesn't have that.  Give me the two shots, especially if one of them is at lamb.

You mentioned later that the number was just rounded, I don't necessarily look for an every week floor, but Michael Thomas didn't even average ten each week.  I'll take 7 targets from a good QB. 

 

[Ilov80s]

Goff had a down year, still finished as a QB1. While I'm not trading multiple firsts for any QB except Mahomes in most leagues, Goff qualifies as a "known" imo.

That’s fair, Goff might not have been the best example. Though he did have a pretty big swing from 32/12 to 22/16. Went from looking like maybe an upper echelon fantasy QB to a guy you have to settle with starting out of a lack of better options. 

 

[metoo]

This, I think Cooper is a bad example.

I'll take Gallup and get the same production.

 

[Soulfly3]

Rex Ryan just called Cooper a "turd". Verbatim

Told you Amari was a stud. 

 

[BradtheAg]

https://thedynastyguru.com/2018/03/06/often-rookie-draft-picks-hit/

 A “hit” would be defined as at least one season with a top 24 RB finish, top 30 WR finish, top 12 QB/TE finish

The hit rate on a draft pick over this time-frame is 19.2%

The hit rate on multiple “starting” level fantasy seasons on a draft pick is 10.8% (excluding 2017)

1st round Hit Rate: 45.8%

2nd round Hit Rate: 30.6%

3rd or late Hit Rate: 9.3%

1st round 2+ Starter Level Seasons Hit Rate: 31.7%

2nd round 2+ Starter Level Seasons Hit Rate: 18.3%

3rd or later 2+ Starter Level Seasons Hit Rate: 4.2%