[DYNASTY] Post-Draft Rookie Rankings (2 Viewers)

[identikit]

I am a bit suprised that Bloom has Brown over Wells. Even more suprised that EBF has Harvin, Nicks and Green ahead of him.

Bear in mind that Harvin and Nicks were both drafted ahead of Wells. Wells will get an early opportunity to make an impact. If you're looking for a short term boom candidate, he's a good option. He's definitely more talented than Hightower and he could have a big year if he stays healthy. I just don't think he's going to be a durable back in the long run. He has a higher ceiling than Greene. Greene looks like a safer long term pick.

Not picking on you EBF but I just think it's funny that the MOST OF US have a perception that Wells is injury prone and yet his new head coach comes out and says this...From Rotoworld;

Chris Wells-RB- Cardinals Apr. 30 - 10:10 pm et

Coach Ken Whisenhunt said first-rounder Chris Wells' ability to play through injuries was one reason the Cardinals liked him enough to draft him.

Wells was constantly banged up at Ohio State, but he missed only three games in three years. "One of the things I liked about him was his toughness," said Whisenhunt. "He had some injuries, but he played through them. To me that's what the NFL is all about."

Source: Associated Press

Sounds like some positive opinions about Beanie.But what else is he going to say about their 1st round pick?

 

[Multiple Scores]

Bia,

The overall depth isn't as strong this year. The first round is great, but there's not much after that. That's why I made aggressive moves to get Tate in several leagues. He looked like the only 3rd round WR with legit skills.

Remember that last year we had 5 RBs selected in round 1 along with something like 10 WRs picked in round 2 with a few more in round 3. You can't compare how people treated Simpson/Caldwell to how they're treating Dillard/Thomas. Two totally different classes with different dynamics. The 15-30 range of rookie drafts looks more barren this year. No doubt there will be a couple gems who emerge from there, but the talent doesn't look to be on par with what we saw in that range last year. So you pick your favorite sleeper, roll the dice, and hope you hit the jackpot.

I agree. The 15-30 range is awful. I had three picks in that area and was able to bundle them to move up to grab Harvin once he slipped all the way to 9. I figured I'd rather roll the dice on a guy I at least know has talent especially since those mid-second round picks I had were practically worthless in my opinion.

I don't blame you. That group is pretty weak. There's a reason nobody after Tate is highlighted in green. There are a few mid-late round guys who look like they could possibly be steals (Thomas, Dillard, McKinley), but there's no one who inspires enough confidence to make me think they will probably be steals.

I agree 100% about 15-30 being awful, throw those picks in a hat and the guy coming out with 16 isn't much better off than the guy with 28 in my opinion. I just got done with my rookie draft and here's what I got -Pick # and Player

11. Kenny Britt

14. Mark Sanchez

18. Brandon Tate

21. Jarrett Dillard

25. Juaquin Iglesias

27. Mohamed Massaquoi

29. Glen Coffee

Of these picks in 15-30 Glen Coffee was a handcuff pick for Gore so toss that out. I don't see much difference between the 4 WRs I got, I pretty much like them equal to eachother, the order I drafted them is not the order I picked them, gotta use common sense in drafts and realize that for example Dillard would go ahead of Iglesias or Massaquoi. I have them 17-20 on my own cheatsheet I made, I lucked out I guess but if I had to take 4 different players that I have ranked anywhere from 15-30 I really wouldn't have been disappointed.

 

[ForbiddenDoughnut]

I am a bit suprised that Bloom has Brown over Wells. Even more suprised that EBF has Harvin, Nicks and Green ahead of him.

Bear in mind that Harvin and Nicks were both drafted ahead of Wells. Wells will get an early opportunity to make an impact. If you're looking for a short term boom candidate, he's a good option. He's definitely more talented than Hightower and he could have a big year if he stays healthy. I just don't think he's going to be a durable back in the long run. He has a higher ceiling than Greene. Greene looks like a safer long term pick.

Not picking on you EBF but I just think it's funny that the MOST OF US have a perception that Wells is injury prone and yet his new head coach comes out and says this...From Rotoworld;

Chris Wells-RB- Cardinals Apr. 30 - 10:10 pm et

Coach Ken Whisenhunt said first-rounder Chris Wells' ability to play through injuries was one reason the Cardinals liked him enough to draft him.

Wells was constantly banged up at Ohio State, but he missed only three games in three years. "One of the things I liked about him was his toughness," said Whisenhunt. "He had some injuries, but he played through them. To me that's what the NFL is all about."

Source: Associated Press

But what else is he going to say about their 1st round pick?

Exactly. Is he going to do anything but spin positively on behalf of the player his team just drafted? I don't follow Ohio St closely, but what I do know is that if Chris Wells plays the second half of the Fiesta Bowl, Ohio St beats Texas. And I say this as a UT homer. This wouldn't count as a game 'missed' per Whisenhunt, but he certainly wasn't there for his team when they needed him. Consider also that he missed the game against USC, and he basically came up smallest when his team needed him the most. I don't know the nature of these various injuries, and far be it for me to question the toughness of a professional athlete, but as I sit here at my cushy desk job and make judgments about people I don't know and will never meet, I'll very likely take someone else for my fantasy football team.

 

[coolnerd]

speaking of Lorenzo Booker, remember all the man love being thrown at him a couple of years ago around draft time? I wasted some dynasty picks on him for sure.

I've been wrong plenty of times in the past, but I got Booker right. I never bought the hype. McCoy is more promising. Overrated? Maybe. Not as bad as Booker though. I think he has a lot more upside.

Booker was not productive at Florida State no matter what type of raw skills that he displayed, and should have been an easy bust to spot. Mccoy has been more productive than the speed/explosion numbers from the combine suggest. Seems to be more football player than raw athlete like Booker.

 

[EBF]

I am a bit suprised that Bloom has Brown over Wells. Even more suprised that EBF has Harvin, Nicks and Green ahead of him.

Bear in mind that Harvin and Nicks were both drafted ahead of Wells. Wells will get an early opportunity to make an impact. If you're looking for a short term boom candidate, he's a good option. He's definitely more talented than Hightower and he could have a big year if he stays healthy. I just don't think he's going to be a durable back in the long run. He has a higher ceiling than Greene. Greene looks like a safer long term pick.

Take a look at RB's taken in the third round in the past 10 years and tell me how safe he is. He has about a 23% chance of becoming starter on your fantasy team. He lasted until the 3rd round for a reason. The NFL is generally pretty good at judging talent. Of course, there are always exceptions, but I doubt Greene is one.

Frank Gore, Ahman Green, and Brian Westbrook all came out of the third round. The two guys I most frequently compare Greene to, Rudi Johnson and Stephen Davis, were fourth round picks.

Another frequent Greene compare, Michael Turner, was a fifth round pick.

Greene was actually picked high for a two down back with limited receiving skills. I expect him to thrive as a Rudi/Jacobs type. He won't be a superstar, but he looks like a safe bet to be a pretty decent FF player.

 

[EBF]

I am a bit suprised that Bloom has Brown over Wells. Even more suprised that EBF has Harvin, Nicks and Green ahead of him.

Bear in mind that Harvin and Nicks were both drafted ahead of Wells. Wells will get an early opportunity to make an impact. If you're looking for a short term boom candidate, he's a good option. He's definitely more talented than Hightower and he could have a big year if he stays healthy. I just don't think he's going to be a durable back in the long run. He has a higher ceiling than Greene. Greene looks like a safer long term pick.

Not picking on you EBF but I just think it's funny that the MOST OF US have a perception that Wells is injury prone and yet his new head coach comes out and says this...From Rotoworld;

Chris Wells-RB- Cardinals Apr. 30 - 10:10 pm et

Coach Ken Whisenhunt said first-rounder Chris Wells' ability to play through injuries was one reason the Cardinals liked him enough to draft him.

Wells was constantly banged up at Ohio State, but he missed only three games in three years. "One of the things I liked about him was his toughness," said Whisenhunt. "He had some injuries, but he played through them. To me that's what the NFL is all about."

Source: Associated Press

I got in a little trouble last year putting too much emphasis on body type when I was looking at the RB class, but I do think it's an important consideration and I have some genuine concerns about Beanie's ability to survive the rigors of the NFL.Watching him run, he has a long lower body with a high center of gravity. Combine that with a tendency to take some big shots and you have a player who looks like he could spend a lot of time on the injured list. This is something that has been corroborated in scouting reports. I don't have a link handy, but I've read quotes from personnel people who say he'll never stay healthy because he has a bad frame and he doesn't know how to protect his body and avoid contact.

It doesn't help that his toughness has been questioned.

 

[Bojang0301]

I am a bit suprised that Bloom has Brown over Wells. Even more suprised that EBF has Harvin, Nicks and Green ahead of him.

Bear in mind that Harvin and Nicks were both drafted ahead of Wells. Wells will get an early opportunity to make an impact. If you're looking for a short term boom candidate, he's a good option. He's definitely more talented than Hightower and he could have a big year if he stays healthy. I just don't think he's going to be a durable back in the long run. He has a higher ceiling than Greene. Greene looks like a safer long term pick.

Not picking on you EBF but I just think it's funny that the MOST OF US have a perception that Wells is injury prone and yet his new head coach comes out and says this...From Rotoworld;

Chris Wells-RB- Cardinals Apr. 30 - 10:10 pm et

Coach Ken Whisenhunt said first-rounder Chris Wells' ability to play through injuries was one reason the Cardinals liked him enough to draft him.

Wells was constantly banged up at Ohio State, but he missed only three games in three years. "One of the things I liked about him was his toughness," said Whisenhunt. "He had some injuries, but he played through them. To me that's what the NFL is all about."

Source: Associated Press

But what else is he going to say about their 1st round pick?

Exactly. Is he going to do anything but spin positively on behalf of the player his team just drafted? I don't follow Ohio St closely, but what I do know is that if Chris Wells plays the second half of the Fiesta Bowl, Ohio St beats Texas. And I say this as a UT homer. This wouldn't count as a game 'missed' per Whisenhunt, but he certainly wasn't there for his team when they needed him. Consider also that he missed the game against USC, and he basically came up smallest when his team needed him the most. I don't know the nature of these various injuries, and far be it for me to question the toughness of a professional athlete, but as I sit here at my cushy desk job and make judgments about people I don't know and will never meet, I'll very likely take someone else for my fantasy football team.

This isn't real football. You don't get points for drafting on character. Randy Moss has taking several plays off over the course of games, hell, even entire seasons with the Raiders and his owners don't complain.

 

[Mario Kart]

.

 

[EBF]

Couple quick notes:

- Turner and Wallace are moving up a little bit. I think I had them too low considering where they were drafted. Wallace looks like he could be Berrian in the best case scenario. Turner never impressed me much in college, but there's a starting job in Miami there for the taking.

- Massaquoi is moving down a little bit. He's a good athlete, but he doesn't have blazing speed or overwhelming strength. Couple that with inconsistent hands and it's tough to see exactly how he's going to make an impact in the NFL.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

I am a bit suprised that Bloom has Brown over Wells. Even more suprised that EBF has Harvin, Nicks and Green ahead of him.

Bear in mind that Harvin and Nicks were both drafted ahead of Wells. Wells will get an early opportunity to make an impact. If you're looking for a short term boom candidate, he's a good option. He's definitely more talented than Hightower and he could have a big year if he stays healthy. I just don't think he's going to be a durable back in the long run. He has a higher ceiling than Greene. Greene looks like a safer long term pick.

Take a look at RB's taken in the third round in the past 10 years and tell me how safe he is. He has about a 23% chance of becoming starter on your fantasy team. He lasted until the 3rd round for a reason. The NFL is generally pretty good at judging talent. Of course, there are always exceptions, but I doubt Greene is one.

Frank Gore, Ahman Green, and Brian Westbrook all came out of the third round. The two guys I most frequently compare Greene to, Rudi Johnson and Stephen Davis, were fourth round picks.

Another frequent Greene compare, Michael Turner, was a fifth round pick.

Greene was actually picked high for a two down back with limited receiving skills. I expect him to thrive as a Rudi/Jacobs type. He won't be a superstar, but he looks like a safe bet to be a pretty decent FF player.

Right, I'm sure we couldn't come up with a list 3x-4x longer, of comparisons from the 3rd-5th round who busted...

 

[Biabreakable]

"I got in a little trouble last year putting too much emphasis on body type when I was looking at the RB class, but I do think it's an important consideration and I have some genuine concerns about Beanie's ability to survive the rigors of the NFL.

Watching him run, he has a long lower body with a high center of gravity. Combine that with a tendency to take some big shots and you have a player who looks like he could spend a lot of time on the injured list. This is something that has been corroborated in scouting reports. I don't have a link handy, but I've read quotes from personnel people who say he'll never stay healthy because he has a bad frame and he doesn't know how to protect his body and avoid contact.

It doesn't help that his toughness has been questioned."

Wells is the opposite of what I look for in intangibles. Toughness and work ethic are key factors for any player to be successful. Especialy a rookie who has so much to learn, to proove to get better at.

Work Habits: Wells is compliant and does spend extra hours in the training room, but needs a bit of monitoring. He seems to have grown up a bit and his work ethic is getting better, but he still needs to be pushed in order to perform to expectations of the coaches in the off-season program. He does love the game, but while physically ready for the next level, you wonder if he might be overwhelmed a bit earlier in his career. GRADE: 6.0

But he has very good vision, obvious talent and exceptional measurables. The situation could not be much better. He will be a starter right away in an offense that Has 2 elite WR and a QB who can get them the ball. Wells will not be the primary focus of the defense. At least not early in the season.

Football Sense: On the field, Wells shows great field vision and awareness. He's a very good student, picking up several academic honors and shows no difficulty digesting the playbook. He has the vision to locate the creases and shows patience following his blockers. He has that instinctive feel running with the ball, but is best served running between tackles, as he tends to have ball security issues bouncing to the outside. GRADE: 7.8

Instincts/Balance: Wells has a lot of old school in him, as he runs over his feet with good base and balance. He sets up his blocks well, has above average field vision and displays a natural feel for the running lanes. He can find the hole in an instant and will cutback fluidly, showing a nice bounce in his step. Some scouts think that he will struggle to avoid in the open, but with his brute power he can just simply run over people to get big yardage. GRADE: 8.3

In a high powered offense Wells should get a lot of goal line opportunity as well as a lot of yards. Is your defense going to commit a defensive back to support the run with Fitz and Boldin to worry about between the 20's? I see Wells getting easy yards in the NFC West with teams needing to play a lot of nickle packages.Thinking longer term Wells might improve as a reciever. That will be key for the upside of his development.

Receiving Skills: OSU barely threw him the ball, as he had just 15 catches in three years. He is not much of a route-runner and uses his body as a crutch too often and fights the ball too much, failing to extend outside his frame. He is a decent receiver on dump-offs, but has just average hands and his ability to adjust to the ball in flight needs improvement. GRADE: 5.3

Route Running : Wells gets some separation in routes, but he fails to keep moving and fails to work back to the ball. He flashes quickness out of his cuts, but needs to do a better job of timing his leaps to get to the ball at its high point (fails to compete for the pass in traffic).

GRADE: 5.1

Blocking Ability: For all of his power and the punishment he dishes out as a runner, you would think that he would relish hitting defenders back as a blocker, but he fails to set his feet and it is rare to see him use leverage to sustain. He displays good toughness to face up and pop in pass protection, but prefers to just get in a defender's way. He is an average cut blocker downfield, but needs to generate a stronger leg base in rare chances as a lead blocker (gets pushed back in the rush lane at times). GRADE: 4.9

Unless Wells improves his blocking he won't be used as much on 3rd downs and other passing situations and formations.I think the key here is do you trust the Cardinals coaching staff?

Character: Wells has no off-field issues, but there are questions surrounding his leadership skills and maturity. He is close to the players, but has never had to step into a take charge role. Some scouts feel that he was not allowed to grow as a person at OSU, were the staff seemed to have two sets of rules - one for the team and the other to "baby" Wells. GRADE: 6.0

Competitiveness: Wells runs hot and cold here. When his head is in the game, he is virtually unstoppable. But there are times when you can't keep him on the field, as there is always a little bump, bruise or ding that will see him bolt to the sidelines. Scouts question his toughness and field smarts, as he has put the ball on the ground quite a bit. His fumble issues were so bad in 2006 that he was buried on the bench and might have never gotten playing time if not for injuries to others ahead of him in the pecking order. He is a physical inside runner who will lower the pads to run through tackles and has perhaps the best stiff-arm of any player in this draft, but there is a lot of Larry Johnson in him and he seems to perform better when he is stroked and coddled. GRADE: 5.4

I think they can coach Wells up. Maybe he will always be limited as a reciever. Maybe not. But he has a lot of upside to be very productive starting player over the next 3-5 years even if he doesen't improve that part of his game.Predicting injury doesen't work for me. Wells being at Ohio State and knowing he is a NFL prospect might have took it easy sometimes to not risk his career. Doesen't mean he will punk out now that he is getting paid.

As pointed out earlier in this thread the success rate for 1st round RB is a lot higher than 1st round WR. They burn out faster and are higher risk positions for injury than WR but they are also more likely to be useful as FF players. Maybe less so in PPR which is this focus. But regardless Wells situation is pretty good and I think the reward outweighs the risk.

To have a player like Shonn Greene who is not as good a reciever as Lamont Jordan but in a similar situation right now as Jordans was behind CuMart higher than Wells who has a clear path to start. That puzzles me. There is no way I would project Greene to have more points over the next 3 years as Wells. Especialy year one which is the most important. And there is no guaruntee that Greene will ever get the chance to outpoint Wells. Greene still has to compete with Washington. A much bigger threat than Hightower imo.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1117597

 

[Biabreakable]

I also thought this was interesting.

04/28/2009 - A closer look at the Cardinals' picks: Round 1/31 -- Chris "Beanie" Wells, RB, 6-2, 235, Ohio State...The club had Connecticut's Donald Brown rated ahead of Wells, but they aren't disappointed to take Wells. He gives them a power runner who is also fast enough to break big runs. That's an element they don't have, and Wells should form a nice tandem with Tim Hightower.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1117597

 

[FUBAR]

good posts Bia, and I agree. When I'm drafting rookies, I tend to shoot for upside moreso than "higher floor". IMO, Wells has more upside than any other player in this draft and that includes Crabtree. Case could be made for Moreno, but I think Wells can be one of the best runners ever if he works at it.

Brown IMO is one of the safest picks, could be top 10 in Indy - and Polian doesn't pick busts in the 1st.

Moreno is a mix of the two, but I'm just avoiding Broncos right now.

 

[Biabreakable]

good posts Bia, and I agree. When I'm drafting rookies, I tend to shoot for upside moreso than "higher floor". IMO, Wells has more upside than any other player in this draft and that includes Crabtree. Case could be made for Moreno, but I think Wells can be one of the best runners ever if he works at it.

Brown IMO is one of the safest picks, could be top 10 in Indy - and Polian doesn't pick busts in the 1st.

Moreno is a mix of the two, but I'm just avoiding Broncos right now.

Then Addai isn't a bust and Brown will have to compete with him.Or Addai is a bust so Brown could be one also.

I don't see how that logic really holds up.

 

[FUBAR]

good posts Bia, and I agree. When I'm drafting rookies, I tend to shoot for upside moreso than "higher floor". IMO, Wells has more upside than any other player in this draft and that includes Crabtree. Case could be made for Moreno, but I think Wells can be one of the best runners ever if he works at it.

Brown IMO is one of the safest picks, could be top 10 in Indy - and Polian doesn't pick busts in the 1st.

Moreno is a mix of the two, but I'm just avoiding Broncos right now.

Then Addai isn't a bust and Brown will have to compete with him.Or Addai is a bust so Brown could be one also.

I don't see how that logic really holds up.

Really? Addai has two 1,000 yard seasons and was injured last year and has done what the Colts wanted him to, I don't see how you could call him a bust. He didn't fare well last year, but some of that is injury (which to my classification removes him from "bust" consideration). He'll be a free agent in 2011, could be released or traded before that. Brown/Addai can be a formidable RBBC and that doesn't make him a bust. Brown has the potential to be very good, I'm not seeing elite status, but late 1st round in FF redrafts type level. Assuming of course that in 2 years, Addai isn't a Colt. HTH

 

[Biabreakable]

good posts Bia, and I agree. When I'm drafting rookies, I tend to shoot for upside moreso than "higher floor". IMO, Wells has more upside than any other player in this draft and that includes Crabtree. Case could be made for Moreno, but I think Wells can be one of the best runners ever if he works at it.

Brown IMO is one of the safest picks, could be top 10 in Indy - and Polian doesn't pick busts in the 1st.

Moreno is a mix of the two, but I'm just avoiding Broncos right now.

Then Addai isn't a bust and Brown will have to compete with him.Or Addai is a bust so Brown could be one also.

I don't see how that logic really holds up.

Really? Addai has two 1,000 yard seasons and was injured last year and has done what the Colts wanted him to, I don't see how you could call him a bust. He didn't fare well last year, but some of that is injury (which to my classification removes him from "bust" consideration). He'll be a free agent in 2011, could be released or traded before that. Brown/Addai can be a formidable RBBC and that doesn't make him a bust. Brown has the potential to be very good, I'm not seeing elite status, but late 1st round in FF redrafts type level. Assuming of course that in 2 years, Addai isn't a Colt. HTH

Ya. Well then Brown has to compete with Addai. And if the Colts always hit on their picks that is going to hold Brown back in FF terms quite a bit.Doesen't mean the Colts aren't doing a good job. And having both backs will be good for the team. But 2 1st round RB competing for carries on a pass 1st team isn't the most ideal situation for FF.

 

[FUBAR]

good posts Bia, and I agree. When I'm drafting rookies, I tend to shoot for upside moreso than "higher floor". IMO, Wells has more upside than any other player in this draft and that includes Crabtree. Case could be made for Moreno, but I think Wells can be one of the best runners ever if he works at it.

Brown IMO is one of the safest picks, could be top 10 in Indy - and Polian doesn't pick busts in the 1st.

Moreno is a mix of the two, but I'm just avoiding Broncos right now.

Then Addai isn't a bust and Brown will have to compete with him.Or Addai is a bust so Brown could be one also.

I don't see how that logic really holds up.

Really? Addai has two 1,000 yard seasons and was injured last year and has done what the Colts wanted him to, I don't see how you could call him a bust. He didn't fare well last year, but some of that is injury (which to my classification removes him from "bust" consideration). He'll be a free agent in 2011, could be released or traded before that. Brown/Addai can be a formidable RBBC and that doesn't make him a bust. Brown has the potential to be very good, I'm not seeing elite status, but late 1st round in FF redrafts type level. Assuming of course that in 2 years, Addai isn't a Colt. HTH

Ya. Well then Brown has to compete with Addai. And if the Colts always hit on their picks that is going to hold Brown back in FF terms quite a bit.Doesen't mean the Colts aren't doing a good job. And having both backs will be good for the team. But 2 1st round RB competing for carries on a pass 1st team isn't the most ideal situation for FF.

Are you looking at rookie drafts like a redraft? 2 years really isn't that long when we're looking at a player's career. I'm not saying Brown should be the #1 or 2 pick right now, I'm saying if you take the longer term view, Brown will probably reward you.

 

[Biabreakable]

good posts Bia, and I agree. When I'm drafting rookies, I tend to shoot for upside moreso than "higher floor". IMO, Wells has more upside than any other player in this draft and that includes Crabtree. Case could be made for Moreno, but I think Wells can be one of the best runners ever if he works at it.

Brown IMO is one of the safest picks, could be top 10 in Indy - and Polian doesn't pick busts in the 1st.

Moreno is a mix of the two, but I'm just avoiding Broncos right now.

Then Addai isn't a bust and Brown will have to compete with him.Or Addai is a bust so Brown could be one also.

I don't see how that logic really holds up.

Really? Addai has two 1,000 yard seasons and was injured last year and has done what the Colts wanted him to, I don't see how you could call him a bust. He didn't fare well last year, but some of that is injury (which to my classification removes him from "bust" consideration). He'll be a free agent in 2011, could be released or traded before that. Brown/Addai can be a formidable RBBC and that doesn't make him a bust. Brown has the potential to be very good, I'm not seeing elite status, but late 1st round in FF redrafts type level. Assuming of course that in 2 years, Addai isn't a Colt. HTH

Ya. Well then Brown has to compete with Addai. And if the Colts always hit on their picks that is going to hold Brown back in FF terms quite a bit.Doesen't mean the Colts aren't doing a good job. And having both backs will be good for the team. But 2 1st round RB competing for carries on a pass 1st team isn't the most ideal situation for FF.

Are you looking at rookie drafts like a redraft? 2 years really isn't that long when we're looking at a player's career. I'm not saying Brown should be the #1 or 2 pick right now, I'm saying if you take the longer term view, Brown will probably reward you.

I am definitly not looking at it as a redraft. But the 1st year matters.In 2006 the Colts drafted Addai with pick 30.

3 years later the Colts draft Brown with pick 27. Arizona says they had Brown higher on their board than Wells.

If Addai and Brown split evenly for the next 2 years neither will likely be better than a RB3 without the other getting injured. That is unless the Colts offense starts running the ball more. I am not predicting injuries here.

Say they do run the ball more with both backs healthy.

The Colts ran the ball 377 times last year.

2007 446 - 3.8

2006 439 - 4.0

In 2006 they had Addai and Rhodes

Split was

Joseph Addai 226 1081 4.8

Dominic Rhodes 187 641 3.4

440 seems like a target area for the Colts offense and based on this even if Addai doesen't do well Brown isn't likely to get a lot of carries 200 would be doing pretty well. There is the chance that Addai does better than this and has a outstanding year. That would limit Brown a lot more. Or if Addai is hurt or Brown beats him out he could get a lot of action in year one. But if you believe in Addai then the odds are against it.

Brown has to somehow beat out Addai to get the starting role here and that might not happen until 2011 if at all. If Addai outplays Brown he could get a new contract.

This situation is almost as confusing as Carolina's last year. Big difference though is that I think Carolina has always been a running team. The Colts with Manning not so much.

 

[bonesman]

I am a bit suprised that Bloom has Brown over Wells. Even more suprised that EBF has Harvin, Nicks and Green ahead of him.

Bear in mind that Harvin and Nicks were both drafted ahead of Wells. Wells will get an early opportunity to make an impact. If you're looking for a short term boom candidate, he's a good option. He's definitely more talented than Hightower and he could have a big year if he stays healthy. I just don't think he's going to be a durable back in the long run. He has a higher ceiling than Greene. Greene looks like a safer long term pick.

Take a look at RB's taken in the third round in the past 10 years and tell me how safe he is. He has about a 23% chance of becoming starter on your fantasy team. He lasted until the 3rd round for a reason. The NFL is generally pretty good at judging talent. Of course, there are always exceptions, but I doubt Greene is one.

This is coming from a guy who proclaimed that Jones-Drew wouldn't be in the top 15 RBs for the rest of his career after his rookie season. (just sayin)

 

[EBF]

To have a player like Shonn Greene who is not as good a reciever as Lamont Jordan but in a similar situation right now as Jordans was behind CuMart higher than Wells who has a clear path to start. That puzzles me. There is no way I would project Greene to have more points over the next 3 years as Wells. Especialy year one which is the most important. And there is no guaruntee that Greene will ever get the chance to outpoint Wells. Greene still has to compete with Washington. A much bigger threat than Hightower imo.

Wells should outscore Greene this season and will almost certainly have more trade value next offseason. If all you're looking for is a short term value, he's the better pick. That said, the obstacles in Greene's path aren't nearly as large as you're making them out to be. Thomas Jones will be out of the picture sooner rather than later. Leon Washington is nothing more than a third down back. In all likelihood, Greene will start for the Jets in 2010 and be a solid RB2 in fantasy leagues.

 

[cstu]

To have a player like Shonn Greene who is not as good a reciever as Lamont Jordan but in a similar situation right now as Jordans was behind CuMart higher than Wells who has a clear path to start. That puzzles me. There is no way I would project Greene to have more points over the next 3 years as Wells. Especialy year one which is the most important. And there is no guaruntee that Greene will ever get the chance to outpoint Wells. Greene still has to compete with Washington. A much bigger threat than Hightower imo.

While it's nice to get production in year one, it's a dynasty so we're more interested in their entire career. Greene has little standing in his way since Washington is just a 3rd down back, not a threat to split carries with. He'll likely have to wait until next year to be a starter, but the Jets paid a pretty high price to get him and he'll be their main back. Wells *should* have a better career but he does have some injury concerns.

 

[cstu]

Predicting injury doesen't work for me. Wells being at Ohio State and knowing he is a NFL prospect might have took it easy sometimes to not risk his career. Doesen't mean he will punk out now that he is getting paid.

Usually it does.

 

[FUBAR]

Predicting injury doesen't work for me. Wells being at Ohio State and knowing he is a NFL prospect might have took it easy sometimes to not risk his career. Doesen't mean he will punk out now that he is getting paid.

Usually it does.

explain this to me like I'm Romeo Crennel.

 

[cstu]

Predicting injury doesen't work for me. Wells being at Ohio State and knowing he is a NFL prospect might have took it easy sometimes to not risk his career. Doesen't mean he will punk out now that he is getting paid.

Usually it does.

explain this to me like I'm Romeo Crennel.

How often do you hear about a guy who was soft in college but then comes to the NFL and becomes a tough guy? If you want to tell me that Wells had legitimate injuries in college and truly couldn't play, then I won't knock him for it. However, I don't buy the theory that guys toughen up once they start getting paid.

 

[captain chaos]

Amen, brother.

 

[FUBAR]

Predicting injury doesen't work for me. Wells being at Ohio State and knowing he is a NFL prospect might have took it easy sometimes to not risk his career. Doesen't mean he will punk out now that he is getting paid.

Usually it does.

explain this to me like I'm Romeo Crennel.

How often do you hear about a guy who was soft in college but then comes to the NFL and becomes a tough guy? If you want to tell me that Wells had legitimate injuries in college and truly couldn't play, then I won't knock him for it. However, I don't buy the theory that guys toughen up once they start getting paid.

Ok, thanks. From what I could tell, Wells played when he possibly could. I disagree with the notion that nobody matures after leaving college and part of the maturity is working harder. I'm certainly not going to draft someone hoping for it (cough Chris Henry cough) but it does happen.

 

[gheemony]

Where do you put Pat White if he's eligible at WR? Seems like he'll get some passes, runs, and catches. If Harvin and Reggie Bush have value because of multiple threats, White should have some value (with passes making up for fewer other opps). Add in that he may get a chance to be the starting QB in a spread offense... where does he go? Mid-to-early 2nd round?

 

[EBF]

Where do you put Pat White if he's eligible at WR? Seems like he'll get some passes, runs, and catches. If Harvin and Reggie Bush have value because of multiple threats, White should have some value (with passes making up for fewer other opps). Add in that he may get a chance to be the starting QB in a spread offense... where does he go? Mid-to-early 2nd round?

I think we have a tendency to get hypnotized by QBs who are also great athletes. Once upon a time Vince Young and Michael Vick were touted as the next great FF QB despite the fact that neither player was an above average passer.Don't let a flashy running QB fool you. The only way a guy like White will become a mainstay in fantasy leagues is if he hones his skills and becomes a complete QB like McNabb. Otherwise he's just a gimmick who won't produce the reliable stats that you want from your starter. Even though I have him pretty high here, I would probably shy away from him in drafts unless you genuinely believe he's the future franchise QB for the Dolphins.

 

[gheemony]

Where do you put Pat White if he's eligible at WR? Seems like he'll get some passes, runs, and catches. If Harvin and Reggie Bush have value because of multiple threats, White should have some value (with passes making up for fewer other opps). Add in that he may get a chance to be the starting QB in a spread offense... where does he go? Mid-to-early 2nd round?

I think we have a tendency to get hypnotized by QBs who are also great athletes. Once upon a time Vince Young and Michael Vick were touted as the next great FF QB despite the fact that neither player was an above average passer.Don't let a flashy running QB fool you. The only way a guy like White will become a mainstay in fantasy leagues is if he hones his skills and becomes a complete QB like McNabb. Otherwise he's just a gimmick who won't produce the reliable stats that you want from your starter. Even though I have him pretty high here, I would probably shy away from him in drafts unless you genuinely believe he's the future franchise QB for the Dolphins.

I agree that his points are likely to be very inconsistent, but on average, couldn't he produce like a WR3?What's a reasonable expectation for Pat White in his role per week? 25 yds rushing, 10 yards receiving, 15 yards passing, .4 TDs? About 7-8 points a week. Not bad, but not great. But the variance could be huge.

 

[massraider]

Where do you put Pat White if he's eligible at WR? Seems like he'll get some passes, runs, and catches. If Harvin and Reggie Bush have value because of multiple threats, White should have some value (with passes making up for fewer other opps). Add in that he may get a chance to be the starting QB in a spread offense... where does he go? Mid-to-early 2nd round?

I think we have a tendency to get hypnotized by QBs who are also great athletes. Once upon a time Vince Young and Michael Vick were touted as the next great FF QB despite the fact that neither player was an above average passer.Don't let a flashy running QB fool you. The only way a guy like White will become a mainstay in fantasy leagues is if he hones his skills and becomes a complete QB like McNabb. Otherwise he's just a gimmick who won't produce the reliable stats that you want from your starter. Even though I have him pretty high here, I would probably shy away from him in drafts unless you genuinely believe he's the future franchise QB for the Dolphins.

I agree that his points are likely to be very inconsistent, but on average, couldn't he produce like a WR3?What's a reasonable expectation for Pat White in his role per week? 25 yds rushing, 10 yards receiving, 15 yards passing, .4 TDs? About 7-8 points a week. Not bad, but not great. But the variance could be huge.

Thing is, he will in all likelihood be classified as a QB. Fins have been pretty clear that he will be a QB.

 

[Tau837]

Where do you put Pat White if he's eligible at WR? Seems like he'll get some passes, runs, and catches. If Harvin and Reggie Bush have value because of multiple threats, White should have some value (with passes making up for fewer other opps). Add in that he may get a chance to be the starting QB in a spread offense... where does he go? Mid-to-early 2nd round?

I think we have a tendency to get hypnotized by QBs who are also great athletes. Once upon a time Vince Young and Michael Vick were touted as the next great FF QB despite the fact that neither player was an above average passer.Don't let a flashy running QB fool you. The only way a guy like White will become a mainstay in fantasy leagues is if he hones his skills and becomes a complete QB like McNabb. Otherwise he's just a gimmick who won't produce the reliable stats that you want from your starter. Even though I have him pretty high here, I would probably shy away from him in drafts unless you genuinely believe he's the future franchise QB for the Dolphins.

Well, Vick was a pretty great FF QB. In the seasons he didn't miss multiple games, he finished 3, 3, 11, 12 (FBG scoring).That said, I don't think Pat White is going to be given the opportunity Vick was given, and he isn't likely to be nearly as good a runner in the NFL as Vick... so probably not a great comparison.

 

[gheemony]

Where do you put Pat White if he's eligible at WR? Seems like he'll get some passes, runs, and catches. If Harvin and Reggie Bush have value because of multiple threats, White should have some value (with passes making up for fewer other opps). Add in that he may get a chance to be the starting QB in a spread offense... where does he go? Mid-to-early 2nd round?

I think we have a tendency to get hypnotized by QBs who are also great athletes. Once upon a time Vince Young and Michael Vick were touted as the next great FF QB despite the fact that neither player was an above average passer.Don't let a flashy running QB fool you. The only way a guy like White will become a mainstay in fantasy leagues is if he hones his skills and becomes a complete QB like McNabb. Otherwise he's just a gimmick who won't produce the reliable stats that you want from your starter. Even though I have him pretty high here, I would probably shy away from him in drafts unless you genuinely believe he's the future franchise QB for the Dolphins.

I agree that his points are likely to be very inconsistent, but on average, couldn't he produce like a WR3?What's a reasonable expectation for Pat White in his role per week? 25 yds rushing, 10 yards receiving, 15 yards passing, .4 TDs? About 7-8 points a week. Not bad, but not great. But the variance could be huge.

Thing is, he will in all likelihood be classified as a QB. Fins have been pretty clear that he will be a QB.

Already listed as WR on ESPN.

 

[massraider]

Where do you put Pat White if he's eligible at WR? Seems like he'll get some passes, runs, and catches. If Harvin and Reggie Bush have value because of multiple threats, White should have some value (with passes making up for fewer other opps). Add in that he may get a chance to be the starting QB in a spread offense... where does he go? Mid-to-early 2nd round?

I think we have a tendency to get hypnotized by QBs who are also great athletes. Once upon a time Vince Young and Michael Vick were touted as the next great FF QB despite the fact that neither player was an above average passer.Don't let a flashy running QB fool you. The only way a guy like White will become a mainstay in fantasy leagues is if he hones his skills and becomes a complete QB like McNabb. Otherwise he's just a gimmick who won't produce the reliable stats that you want from your starter.

Even though I have him pretty high here, I would probably shy away from him in drafts unless you genuinely believe he's the future franchise QB for the Dolphins.

I agree that his points are likely to be very inconsistent, but on average, couldn't he produce like a WR3?What's a reasonable expectation for Pat White in his role per week? 25 yds rushing, 10 yards receiving, 15 yards passing, .4 TDs? About 7-8 points a week. Not bad, but not great. But the variance could be huge.

Thing is, he will in all likelihood be classified as a QB. Fins have been pretty clear that he will be a QB.

Already listed as WR on ESPN.

Good old ESPN. Can always count on them to mess up designations. Their IDP designations are even worse, Thomas Davis is still a safety, Madieu is a CB, and on and on. It's not accurate, but you can take advantage of it.MFL has him as a QB, as will, I am sure, CBS.

IF he stays a WR on ESPN, then in an ESPN rookie draft, he's a top 7 pick, IMO.

 

[noneother]

Was unable to find it, I thought there was a thread discussing Donald Brown and Shonn Greene..

Who will is better for Dynasty / Keeper leagues? Brown? because he is in more rounded offense? Or Greene, because he is coming in with his QB, and they will develop together?

or are there other reasons entirely?

thanks

 

[EBF]

Was unable to find it, I thought there was a thread discussing Donald Brown and Shonn Greene..Who will is better for Dynasty / Keeper leagues? Brown? because he is in more rounded offense? Or Greene, because he is coming in with his QB, and they will develop together?or are there other reasons entirely?thanks

Brown is going higher in all my drafts. Personally, I think Greene has a higher floor, but Brown has a higher ceiling.The reason I rank Greene so high is because I think I know exactly what he is. He's basically a clone of Rudi Johnson. He's not a player who will carry your FF team, but he'll emerge as a reliable RB2 who puts up solid numbers.With Brown, there's a wider range of outcomes. I could see him becoming a star like Tiki Barber or I could see him being more of a complementary back like Felix Jones was last year. If you want to gamble for upside, he's the better pick. If you want to a low risk prospect who will almost certainly become a 1000+ yard rusher within two years, go with Greene.

 

[jurb26]

If you want to a low risk prospect who will almost certainly become a 1000+ yard rusher within two years, go with Greene.

I strongly disagree with this and honestly I think your assessment of Greene in it's very nature does as well. You say that Greene is a Rudi Johnson like player and I agree. I would also say that Rudi-like production is about the ceiling for what you can hope for out of Greene. But what exactly is a Rudi Johnson type guy? IMO, this is a polite way of saying a guy is very system and situation dependent and lacks the pure ability to supersede his current environment. He does have enough ability to take advantage of great situations though. Now, I would agree that presently Greene is very well positioned with the NYJ. This is a solid running team with a dominant Oline and really only an old marginally talent RB in front of him (I'm sure the Washington crowd would probably contest that he is part of the picture as well). However, I can't say that will also be the case in 2 years. This teams offensive scheme could change. They could loose critical parts to their now dominant Oline. Furthermore, like Addai this year I think you have to seriously concern yourself as a Greene owner that he will be replaced (or given steep competition) in the next 2 or 3 years IMO. I just don't happen to see the great hype in Greene. I wasn't a fan of his prior to the draft but thought I may just be off on him. Seeing him slip to the 3rd round sort of confirms my instincts on him though. I just don't see Greene as a guy with the kind of talent that is needed to produce sustainable production in the NFL. I think comparisons to Rudi that are meant to be compliments to his ability are rather ironic.

 

[EBF]

Most backs would be lucky to have Rudi's career. If this class was full of elite talents who looked like no-brainer locks to become franchise backs then I wouldn't rank Grene so high, but this is a pretty pitiful group IMO and I think he's one of the safest options.

 

[jurb26]

Most backs would be lucky to have Rudi's career. If this class was full of elite talents who looked like no-brainer locks to become franchise backs then I wouldn't rank Grene so high, but this is a pretty pitiful group IMO and I think he's one of the safest options.

Well, I'm not saying that this class is full of elite guys. However, most seem to agree that Wells is clearly more talent and in a better situation. Wells may have concerns due to his injury past, but I think we can all at least feel comfortable in that he does have the ability to produce. You've even said yourself that you can easily see him winning rookie of the year. I just don't see any reason what so ever to have Wells ranked bellow Greene. I would also argue that McCoy should be ahead of him but that one is at least highly debatable IMO. I could go either way on those guys. I did just have the 1.09 pick in a rookie draft and both McCoy and Greene were available and took McCoy though.

 

[EBF]

There are two main factors that determine a prospect's value:

1. How good he can be. (UPSIDE)

2. How likely he is to do it. (CERTAINTY)

UPSIDE x CERTAINTY = VALUE

Beanie Wells has a higher upside than Shonn Greene. That doesn't automatically mean he's more valuable. Let's say you think Beanie can be a 350 point scorer in your league if he fulfills his potential. You think Shonn Greene can be a 275 point scorer. But let's say you think Wells only has a 50% chance of fulfilling his potential whereas you think Greene has a 75% chance of fulfilling his potential. That would give you the following value for each player.

Wells = 350 x .50 = 125

Greene = 275 x .75 = 206

In this example, Greene is more valuable. His lower upside is offset by his higher probability of fulfilling his potential.

This is a gross oversimplification and I used arbitrary numbers that don't reflect reality, but it demonstrates my thought process. I believe Wells is one of the most volatile prospects in this draft class. He might be great or he might be utter crap. Greene doesn't have the big play potential, but is a much safer prospect in my opinion. Others will disagree with me. In fact, most people will disagree with me. First round picks are historically more likely to succeed than third round picks. Wells has been picked before Greene in every single one of my drafts, usually by a wide margin. Nevertheless, I like Greene. I think he offers a much better risk/reward proposition at his cost.

 

[jurb26]

I think he offers a much better risk/reward proposition at his cost.

That's fine if you do. I just fail to see how in a class of RBs that you call a "pretty pitiful group" a guy drafted in the 3rd round is the "safest" pick of the group. I mean it seems like a rather big contradiction. 3rd round guys are already risky enough in average classes or hell, even good classes. If Greene was so safe then IMO he would have been drafted earlier. Especially seeing that the class sucked. Or, maybe Greene is better than I or many think but still, that must mean the class is too. At least in some regard. I know you've been high on Greene for a long while now and I get the feeling that you are just sticking with your guy (as it seems you always do). Lastly, I think your equation is not complete. I would argue that in fulfilling your potential for dynasty there also needs to be a range on years of production. If Wells fulfills his I would expect close to 10 years of production. If Greene fulfills his I would expect 4.... just like Rudi.

 

[awesomeness]

jurb you seem to keep going on about how Greene is a 3rd round pick and do it in a negative fashion. But Greene was the 1st pick of the 3rd round, and the Jets traded up to the 3.1 to take him there. If Greene was the last pick of the 2nd round instead of the 1st pick of the third round how much would your opinion on him change?

 

[EBF]

That's fine if you do. I just fail to see how in a class of RBs that you call a "pretty pitiful group" a guy drafted in the 3rd round is the "safest" pick of the group. I mean it seems like a rather big contradiction. 3rd round guys are already risky enough in average classes or hell, even good classes. If Greene was so safe then IMO he would have been drafted earlier. Especially seeing that the class sucked. Or, maybe Greene is better than I or many think but still, that must mean the class is too. At least in some regard. I know you've been high on Greene for a long while now and I get the feeling that you are just sticking with your guy (as it seems you always do).

This thread is based on my opinions. My opinion is that Greene is a very safe pick. He has a strong set of combine numbers, he was a productive player in college, he has an ideal frame for the position, and I think his style will translate seamlessly. Am I supposed to dramatically downgrade him because he fell to the 1st pick in the 3rd round? He was never projected to go anywhere higher than the 2nd. He went right about where he was supposed to go, to a team that traded up to get him and said he was the best player left on their board by a wide margin. Power backs generally aren't a hot commodity in the draft. Greene was picked higher than Rudi, MB3, S. Davis, Jacobs, and Turner. I see no cause for alarm. If you think draft position is the sole indicator of a player's talent then you don't need to read anybody's rankings.

Lastly, I think your equation is not complete. I would argue that in fulfilling your potential for dynasty there also needs to be a range on years of production. If Wells fulfills his I would expect close to 10 years of production. If Greene fulfills his I would expect 4.... just like Rudi.

I'd like to see Wells get through 10 games, much less 10 years. My biggest concern with him is that I don't think he'll be able to hold up to the pounding. With his upright style, thin lower body, and poor avoidance skills, he's an injury waiting to happen. I think that's why he slipped as far as he did considering his talent.

 

[jurb26]

jurb you seem you keep going on about how Greene is a 3rd round pick and do it in a negative fashion. But Greene was the 1st pick of the 3rd round, and the Jets traded up to the 3.1 to take him there. If Greene was the last pick of the 2nd round instead of the 1st pick of the third round how much would your opinion on him change?

I don't particularly care where he was drafted outside of the fact that EBF says this class was pathetic yet rates a guy drafted in the 3rd (5th RB taken) as the safest RB and #5 overall player. I also don't see how I keep going on about it either. I mentioned it in reply to EBFs comments of how poor this draft was and how history has shown us that 1st rounders have a much higher success rate. That is a sever disconnect to me. No it doesn't matter to me if he was picked late 2nd round or early 3rd round. The fact remains that he still believes this RB class sucked and Greene wasn't even at the top of it. In reality he wasn't even close. That is what is critical.

 

[Multiple Scores]

I might be alone in thinking this class doesn't suck. The WRs in this class are top notch, you don't get a WR class this good very often at all. I think that there are 5 pretty good RBs in this class, none are AP or LT but they should be pretty solid. The RB depth on the other hand is pretty darn bad IMO after CW, KM, SG, DB and LM. I consider Kenny Britt as the 6th best WR in this class and a better prospect than any wr from last season, sure DeSean and Royal and Avery are all solid now but they weren't as wonderful this time last year.

I think there are 3 groups of the top (not ranked, just tiered)

Tier 1

Knowshon

Beanie

Crabtree

Tier 2

D. Brown

McCoy

Green

Harvin

Nicks

Maclin

Tier 3

DHB

Britt

Stafford

Sanchez

Robiskie

Those are 14 pretty darn good fantasy draft picks right there. Yes we can all look back at last year and say this class stinks, hindsight is pretty nice. Every year we don't have Forte, CJ, Slaton among others lighting it up, last year was special after the fact. I'm not trying to compare rankings to EBF or anyone else here, just saying stop with the this class sucks mantra. Next years class is gonna suck if this class is uber-special like last years, let's rate classes based on prospects and not the fact that there ended up being so much success last season.

 

[EBF]

jurb you seem you keep going on about how Greene is a 3rd round pick and do it in a negative fashion. But Greene was the 1st pick of the 3rd round, and the Jets traded up to the 3.1 to take him there. If Greene was the last pick of the 2nd round instead of the 1st pick of the third round how much would your opinion on him change?

I don't particularly care where he was drafted outside of the fact that EBF says this class was pathetic yet rates a guy drafted in the 3rd (5th RB taken) as the safest RB and #5 overall player. I also don't see how I keep going on about it either. I mentioned it only once and it was in reply to EBFs comments of how poor this draft was and how history has shown us that 1st rounders have a much higher success rate. That is a sever disconnect to me. No it doesn't matter to me if he was picked late 2nd round or early 3rd round. The fact remains that he still believes this RB class sucked. That is what is critical.

So because this is a weak draft class, it's impossible that a good player could fall through the cracks?That seems to be what you're arguing. Let's look at some recent draft history.

2008 1 1 4 4 Darren McFadden Raiders Arkansas

2 1 13 13 Jonathan Stewart Panthers Oregon

3 1 22 22 Felix Jones Cowboys Arkansas

4 1 23 23 Rashard Mendenhall Steelers Illinois

5 1 24 24 Chris Johnson Titans East Carolina

6 2 13 44 Matt Forte Bears Tulane

7 2 24 55 Ray Rice Ravens Rutgers

8 3 1 64 Kevin Smith Lions Central Florida

9 3 6 69 Jacob Hester Chargers Louisiana State

10 3 10 73 Jamaal Charles Chiefs Texas

11 3 26 89 Steve Slaton Texans West Virginia

2006 1 1 2 2 Reggie Bush Saints USC

2 1 21 21 Laurence Maroney Patriots Minnesota

3 1 27 27 DeAngelo Williams Panthers Memphis

4 1 30 30 Joseph Addai Colts Louisiana State

5 2 13 45 LenDale White Titans USC

6 2 28 60 Maurice Jones-Drew Jaguars UCLA

2005 1 1 2 2 Ronnie Brown Dolphins Auburn

2 1 4 4 Cedric Benson Bears Texas

3 1 5 5 Cadillac Williams Buccaneers Auburn

4 2 12 44 J.J. Arrington Cardinals California

5 2 22 54 Eric Shelton Panthers Louisville

6 3 1 65 Frank Gore 49ers Miami (FL)

7 3 9 73 Vernand Morency Texans Oklahoma State

8 3 13 77 Ryan Moats Eagles Louisiana Tech

9 3 37 101 Maurice Clarett Broncos Ohio State

10 4 8 109 Marion Barber Cowboys Minnesota

2004 1 1 24 24 Steven Jackson Rams Oregon State

2 1 26 26 Chris Perry Bengals Michigan

3 1 30 30 Kevin Jones Lions Virginia Tech

4 2 9 41 Tatum Bell Broncos Oklahoma State

5 2 11 43 Julius Jones Cowboys Notre Dame

6 2 23 55 Greg Jones Jaguars Florida State

7 4 23 119 Mewelde Moore Vikings Tulane

8 4 32 128 Cedric Cobbs Patriots Arkansas

9 5 22 154 Michael Turner Chargers Northern Illinois

2002 1 1 16 16 William Green Browns Boston College

2 1 18 18 T.J. Duckett Falcons Michigan State

3 2 2 34 DeShaun Foster Panthers UCLA

4 2 19 51 Clinton Portis Broncos Miami (FL)

5 2 22 54 Maurice Morris Seahawks Oregon

6 2 24 56 Ladell Betts Redskins Iowa

7 3 19 84 Lamar Gordon Rams North Dakota State

8 3 26 91 Brian Westbrook Eagles Villanova

I understand the idea that 1st round picks tend to succeed more often than 3rd round picks. However, I also understand that individual players provide exceptions to this broader rule almost every season. The irony here is that you're presumably a big Clinton Portis fan, but if you had used the same line of reasoning that you're using against Greene when Portis was a prospect then you would've found the idea of him as a safe pick outrageous because "surely he wouldn't have fallen to pick 51 in a weak draft class if he was really the safest pick."

It's common for prospects picked in the same general draft range as Greene to become good pro players. I happen to think Greene will be the next success story in this long tradition. I'm sorry if you find this concept so difficult to digest.

 

[jurb26]

jurb you seem you keep going on about how Greene is a 3rd round pick and do it in a negative fashion. But Greene was the 1st pick of the 3rd round, and the Jets traded up to the 3.1 to take him there. If Greene was the last pick of the 2nd round instead of the 1st pick of the third round how much would your opinion on him change?

I don't particularly care where he was drafted outside of the fact that EBF says this class was pathetic yet rates a guy drafted in the 3rd (5th RB taken) as the safest RB and #5 overall player. I also don't see how I keep going on about it either. I mentioned it only once and it was in reply to EBFs comments of how poor this draft was and how history has shown us that 1st rounders have a much higher success rate. That is a sever disconnect to me. No it doesn't matter to me if he was picked late 2nd round or early 3rd round. The fact remains that he still believes this RB class sucked. That is what is critical.

So because this is a weak draft class, it's impossible that a good player could fall through the cracks?That seems to be what you're arguing. Let's look at some recent draft history. I understand the idea that 1st round picks tend to succeed more often than 3rd round picks. However, I also understand that individual players provide exceptions to this broader rule almost every season. The irony here is that you're presumably a big Clinton Portis fan, but if you had used the same line of reasoning that you're using against Greene when Portis was a prospect then you would've found the idea of him as a safe pick outrageous because "surely he wouldn't have fallen to pick 51 in a weak draft class if he was really the safest pick."It's common for prospects picked in the same general draft range as Greene to become good pro players. I happen to think Greene will be the next success story in this long tradition. I'm sorry if you find this concept so difficult to digest.

I'm not saying that good players can't come from the 3rd round or even the 3rd round of poor classes. I'm only pointing out that it is more unlikely and therefor calling a player such as that the safest player in the pool is strange. Yes, I liked Portis coming out, but I never would have labeled him as the safest player even though I loved his ability. In retrospect I very well could have and I would have been right. However, I understand that the probability of that is very low. You are even saying in your above post that Portis was an exception. I happen to agree with Multiple Scores in that this class isn't nearly as bad as many people seem to think. Regardless, you do seem to think it is. At least as far as RBs are concerned.Is it really that hard to understand how it comes across as confusing when you state that this RB class sucks, late 2nd/3rd round guys making an extended impact are exceptions and yet this years 3rd round RB is the safest of the group?

 

[EBF]

I'm not saying that good players can't come from the 3rd round or even the 3rd round of poor classes. I'm only pointing out that it is more unlikely and therefor calling a player such as that the safest player in the pool is strange. Yes, I liked Portis coming out, but I never would have labeled him as the safest player even though I loved his ability. In retrospect I very well could have and I would have been right. However, I understand that the probability of that is very low. You are even saying in your above post that Portis was an exception. I happen to agree with Multiple Scores in that this class isn't nearly as bad as many people seem to think. Regardless, you do seem to think it is. At least as far as RBs are concerned.

I never said Greene was the safest player in the pool or the safest RB. Here's what I said:

If this class was full of elite talents who looked like no-brainer locks to become franchise backs then I wouldn't rank Grene so high, but this is a pretty pitiful group IMO and I think he's one of the safest options.

That's my opinion.

Is it really that hard to understand how it comes across as confusing when you state that this RB class sucks, late 2nd/3rd round guys making an extended impact are exceptions and yet this years 3rd round RB is the safest of the group?

First round picks succeed about twice as often as third round picks. I'm aware of this and I still think Greene is a safer pick than Brown or Wells. That's my opinion based on my analysis of these players. You don't seem to understand the notion of an opinion, so maybe my homeboy Webster can help us out here:

opin·ion Listen to the pronunciation of opinion

Pronunciation:

\ə-ˈpin-yən\

Function:

noun

Etymology:

Middle English, from Anglo-French, from Latin opinion-, opinio, from opinari

Date:

14th century

1 a: a view, judgment, or appraisal formed in the mind about a particular matter

Your argument that ZOMG GREENE CANT POSSIBLY BE BETTER HE WAS PICKED LATER doesn't hold any sway with me because I've done my homework on these players and I think I have a firm grasp on their abilities. If you're only interested in entertaining rankings that perfectly adhere to draft position then you don't need to read anyone's opinion because draft position will tell you everything you want to hear.

 

[cstu]

jurb you seem you keep going on about how Greene is a 3rd round pick and do it in a negative fashion. But Greene was the 1st pick of the 3rd round, and the Jets traded up to the 3.1 to take him there. If Greene was the last pick of the 2nd round instead of the 1st pick of the third round how much would your opinion on him change?

I don't particularly care where he was drafted outside of the fact that EBF says this class was pathetic yet rates a guy drafted in the 3rd (5th RB taken) as the safest RB and #5 overall player. I also don't see how I keep going on about it either. I mentioned it only once and it was in reply to EBFs comments of how poor this draft was and how history has shown us that 1st rounders have a much higher success rate. That is a sever disconnect to me. No it doesn't matter to me if he was picked late 2nd round or early 3rd round. The fact remains that he still believes this RB class sucked. That is what is critical.

So because this is a weak draft class, it's impossible that a good player could fall through the cracks?That seems to be what you're arguing. Let's look at some recent draft history. I understand the idea that 1st round picks tend to succeed more often than 3rd round picks. However, I also understand that individual players provide exceptions to this broader rule almost every season. The irony here is that you're presumably a big Clinton Portis fan, but if you had used the same line of reasoning that you're using against Greene when Portis was a prospect then you would've found the idea of him as a safe pick outrageous because "surely he wouldn't have fallen to pick 51 in a weak draft class if he was really the safest pick."It's common for prospects picked in the same general draft range as Greene to become good pro players. I happen to think Greene will be the next success story in this long tradition. I'm sorry if you find this concept so difficult to digest.

I'm not saying that good players can't come from the 3rd round or even the 3rd round of poor classes. I'm only pointing out that it is more unlikely and therefor calling a player such as that the safest player in the pool is strange. Yes, I liked Portis coming out, but I never would have labeled him as the safest player even though I loved his ability. In retrospect I very well could have and I would have been right. However, I understand that the probability of that is very low. You are even saying in your above post that Portis was an exception. I happen to agree with Multiple Scores in that this class isn't nearly as bad as many people seem to think. Regardless, you do seem to think it is. At least as far as RBs are concerned.Is it really that hard to understand how it comes across as confusing when you state that this RB class sucks, late 2nd/3rd round guys making an extended impact are exceptions and yet this years 3rd round RB is the safest of the group?

The round a guy is drafted in is not as important to me as how many RB's were drafted ahead of him. Greene was the 5th RB taken and the 5th and 6th RB's taken have been pretty good in recent history:2008 - Chris Johnson - 5th RB, Forte - 6th RB2006 - LenDale White - 5th RB, MJD - 6th RB2005 - Gore - 6th RB2004 - Julius Jones - 5th RB2003 - Dom Davis - 6th RB2002 - Betts - 6th RB2001 - Lamont Jordan - 5th RB. Travis Henry - 6th RBI wouldn't call Greene the safest RB in the draft - that's Moreno to me - but Greene is basically being handed a starting job by 2010. The combination of a good defense and good OL bodes well for Greene. It also doesn't hurt that he has a good, but young, QB who will keep defenses honest but likely won't have the focus of the offense on the passing game.

 

[gheemony]

Was unable to find it, I thought there was a thread discussing Donald Brown and Shonn Greene..Who will is better for Dynasty / Keeper leagues? Brown? because he is in more rounded offense? Or Greene, because he is coming in with his QB, and they will develop together?or are there other reasons entirely?thanks

Brown is going higher in all my drafts. Personally, I think Greene has a higher floor, but Brown has a higher ceiling.The reason I rank Greene so high is because I think I know exactly what he is. He's basically a clone of Rudi Johnson. He's not a player who will carry your FF team, but he'll emerge as a reliable RB2 who puts up solid numbers.With Brown, there's a wider range of outcomes. I could see him becoming a star like Tiki Barber or I could see him being more of a complementary back like Felix Jones was last year. If you want to gamble for upside, he's the better pick. If you want to a low risk prospect who will almost certainly become a 1000+ yard rusher within two years, go with Greene.

So I understand your view of Brown's downside, where do you rank Felix Jones this year for redraft and for dynasty? Top 20, Top 30, Top 40?

 

[EBF]

Was unable to find it, I thought there was a thread discussing Donald Brown and Shonn Greene..Who will is better for Dynasty / Keeper leagues? Brown? because he is in more rounded offense? Or Greene, because he is coming in with his QB, and they will develop together?or are there other reasons entirely?thanks

Brown is going higher in all my drafts. Personally, I think Greene has a higher floor, but Brown has a higher ceiling.The reason I rank Greene so high is because I think I know exactly what he is. He's basically a clone of Rudi Johnson. He's not a player who will carry your FF team, but he'll emerge as a reliable RB2 who puts up solid numbers.With Brown, there's a wider range of outcomes. I could see him becoming a star like Tiki Barber or I could see him being more of a complementary back like Felix Jones was last year. If you want to gamble for upside, he's the better pick. If you want to a low risk prospect who will almost certainly become a 1000+ yard rusher within two years, go with Greene.

So I understand your view of Brown's downside, where do you rank Felix Jones this year for redraft and for dynasty? Top 20, Top 30, Top 40?

I haven't thought about where I'd rank him in redraft. I would probably avoid him in leagues that aren't best ball because I don't think he'll get enough touches to be a reliable weekly start in most 10-14 team leagues. In dynasty, somewhere in the RB20-25 range seems about right for Felix.