[DYNASTY] Post-Draft Rookie Rankings (1 Viewer)

[gheemony]

Was unable to find it, I thought there was a thread discussing Donald Brown and Shonn Greene..Who will is better for Dynasty / Keeper leagues? Brown? because he is in more rounded offense? Or Greene, because he is coming in with his QB, and they will develop together?or are there other reasons entirely?thanks

Brown is going higher in all my drafts. Personally, I think Greene has a higher floor, but Brown has a higher ceiling.The reason I rank Greene so high is because I think I know exactly what he is. He's basically a clone of Rudi Johnson. He's not a player who will carry your FF team, but he'll emerge as a reliable RB2 who puts up solid numbers.With Brown, there's a wider range of outcomes. I could see him becoming a star like Tiki Barber or I could see him being more of a complementary back like Felix Jones was last year. If you want to gamble for upside, he's the better pick. If you want to a low risk prospect who will almost certainly become a 1000+ yard rusher within two years, go with Greene.

So I understand your view of Brown's downside, where do you rank Felix Jones this year for redraft and for dynasty? Top 20, Top 30, Top 40?

I haven't thought about where I'd rank him in redraft. I would probably avoid him in leagues that aren't best ball because I don't think he'll get enough touches to be a reliable weekly start in most 10-14 team leagues. In dynasty, somewhere in the RB20-25 range seems about right for Felix.

Sorry, don't mean to hijack, but if he's not a reliable weekly starter and avoided in redraft, how does have top 25 value in dynasty? I assume that it's based on value next year and beyond. After all, he's no more reliable as a starter this year in dynasty.

 

[EBF]

Sorry, don't mean to hijack, but if he's not a reliable weekly starter and avoided in redraft, how does have top 25 value in dynasty? I assume that it's based on value next year and beyond. After all, he's no more reliable as a starter this year in dynasty.

He's a young first round pick who made big plays whenever he was given the opportunity. Even though he splits time right now, there's a probability of him eventually becoming a Tiki Barber or Brian Westbrook type. That's what people are hoping for when they take him high in initial drafts.

 

[Sinrj]

Greene is kind of old for a rookie. He'll be 24 at the start of the season. That doesn't mean he can't succeed but the window of opportunity is small. I don't think he can afford an injury or a poor season. RB like Mendenhall or Felix Jones have relatively good value this year despite missing most of last season because they were both 1st rounder and still young. I think he's a better fit for someone who's contending. If i'm rebuilding I would rather take my chance on a WR or Lesean McCoy.

 

[The Real Yoda]

There are two main factors that determine a prospect's value:

1. How good he can be. (UPSIDE)

2. How likely he is to do it. (CERTAINTY)

UPSIDE x CERTAINTY = VALUE

Beanie Wells has a higher upside than Shonn Greene. That doesn't automatically mean he's more valuable. Let's say you think Beanie can be a 350 point scorer in your league if he fulfills his potential. You think Shonn Greene can be a 275 point scorer. But let's say you think Wells only has a 50% chance of fulfilling his potential whereas you think Greene has a 75% chance of fulfilling his potential. That would give you the following value for each player.

Wells = 350 x .50 = 125

Greene = 275 x .75 = 206

In this example, Greene is more valuable. His lower upside is offset by his higher probability of fulfilling his potential.

This is a gross oversimplification and I used arbitrary numbers that don't reflect reality, but it demonstrates my thought process. I believe Wells is one of the most volatile prospects in this draft class. He might be great or he might be utter crap. Greene doesn't have the big play potential, but is a much safer prospect in my opinion. Others will disagree with me. In fact, most people will disagree with me. First round picks are historically more likely to succeed than third round picks. Wells has been picked before Greene in every single one of my drafts, usually by a wide margin. Nevertheless, I like Greene. I think he offers a much better risk/reward proposition at his cost.

Not for nothing but 350 * .5 is 175 Your math makes it look a LOT less close in your example

 

[grtwhtsk]

EBF, have you changed your rankings at all since this was first released?

 

[EBF]

EBF, have you changed your rankings at all since this was first released?

The top 10-15 hasn't changed much. Crabtree and Moreno are the top 2 on my board. Greene, Harvin, and Nicks are recommended anywhere in the 3-12 range. I have a neutral opinion of Maclin, Brown, and the QBs (though I'm now favoring Sanchez slightly over Stafford because I have more faith in his organization). I think McCoy is slightly overrated. I'm down on Britt, Freeman, Robiskie, and Wells. I think Wells can make a big immediate impact and possibly be the consensus #1 player from this class after the season, but I don't think he will be a durable pro back. I like Brandon Tate more than the other second tier WRs. After that, things get pretty hazy for me. I'm keeping an open mind when it comes to the remaining second and third tier players because I don't think I have a great read on all of them. Andre Brown, Jarett Dillard, Mike Thomas, and Gartrell Johnson look like pretty good picks in this range. Juaquin Iglesias is getting decent press, but I've never been a fan. Mike Wallace, Mohamed Massaquoi, Ramses Barden, and Patrick Turner look like guys who could emerge as starting NFL WRs 2-3 years down the road. I would classify them all as longshots though. I've heard good things about Deon Butler, but he looks like a slot guy. I'm not a big fan of this TE class. I think the depth is pretty poor this year and that's why I won't go to bat for many of the players commonly available outside the top 15 in rookie drafts. I'm sure some of them will eventually become contributors in the NFL, but they're a pretty motley crew and it's hard for me to recommend any of them with confidence. I'm taking a wait-and-see approach with most of these guys. I'll be keeping up on the training camp buzz and adjusting accordingly.

 

[grtwhtsk]

EBF, have you changed your rankings at all since this was first released?

I like Brandon Tate more than the other second tier WRs. After that, things get pretty hazy for me. I'm keeping an open mind when it comes to the remaining second and third tier players because I don't think I have a great read on all of them. Andre Brown, Jarett Dillard, Mike Thomas, and Gartrell Johnson look like pretty good picks in this range. Juaquin Iglesias is getting decent press, but I've never been a fan. Mike Wallace, Mohamed Massaquoi, Ramses Barden, and Patrick Turner look like guys who could emerge as starting NFL WRs 2-3 years down the road. I would classify them all as longshots though. I've heard good things about Deon Butler, but he looks like a slot guy. I'm not a big fan of this TE class.

Given that Tate will probably not contribute much (if play at all) in 2009, would you still take him before a Britt or Robiskie (dynasty)?

 

[Biabreakable]

EBF, have you changed your rankings at all since this was first released?

The top 10-15 hasn't changed much. Crabtree and Moreno are the top 2 on my board. Greene, Harvin, and Nicks are recommended anywhere in the 3-12 range. I have a neutral opinion of Maclin, Brown, and the QBs (though I'm now favoring Sanchez slightly over Stafford because I have more faith in his organization). I think McCoy is slightly overrated. I'm down on Britt, Freeman, Robiskie, and Wells. I think Wells can make a big immediate impact and possibly be the consensus #1 player from this class after the season, but I don't think he will be a durable pro back. I like Brandon Tate more than the other second tier WRs. After that, things get pretty hazy for me. I'm keeping an open mind when it comes to the remaining second and third tier players because I don't think I have a great read on all of them. Andre Brown, Jarett Dillard, Mike Thomas, and Gartrell Johnson look like pretty good picks in this range. Juaquin Iglesias is getting decent press, but I've never been a fan. Mike Wallace, Mohamed Massaquoi, Ramses Barden, and Patrick Turner look like guys who could emerge as starting NFL WRs 2-3 years down the road. I would classify them all as longshots though. I've heard good things about Deon Butler, but he looks like a slot guy. I'm not a big fan of this TE class. I think the depth is pretty poor this year and that's why I won't go to bat for many of the players commonly available outside the top 15 in rookie drafts. I'm sure some of them will eventually become contributors in the NFL, but they're a pretty motley crew and it's hard for me to recommend any of them with confidence. I'm taking a wait-and-see approach with most of these guys. I'll be keeping up on the training camp buzz and adjusting accordingly.

This is much my take on this as well.Perhaps the main difference being the TE position which I may see as more promising.What is interesting about the later ranked players is thier situations. I think several of the lower ranked guys will have very good opportunity but thier talent may not be enough to hold off future compitition. So the strategy in this situation would be to get several of these guys (if you have the roster space) based on early opportunity. Then look to sell high on the ones that get it for more talented prospects later.

 

[EBF]

EBF, have you changed your rankings at all since this was first released?

I like Brandon Tate more than the other second tier WRs. After that, things get pretty hazy for me. I'm keeping an open mind when it comes to the remaining second and third tier players because I don't think I have a great read on all of them. Andre Brown, Jarett Dillard, Mike Thomas, and Gartrell Johnson look like pretty good picks in this range. Juaquin Iglesias is getting decent press, but I've never been a fan. Mike Wallace, Mohamed Massaquoi, Ramses Barden, and Patrick Turner look like guys who could emerge as starting NFL WRs 2-3 years down the road. I would classify them all as longshots though. I've heard good things about Deon Butler, but he looks like a slot guy. I'm not a big fan of this TE class.

Given that Tate will probably not contribute much (if play at all) in 2009, would you still take him before a Britt or Robiskie (dynasty)?

I think you're almost obligated to draft Britt over Tate if you find yourself in that position. I don't like Britt, but he's a first round pick on a team with no talent at WR. That's hard to ignore. Even if he comes in and stinks it up next season, he'll probably still have decent trade value due to his name value and pedigree. Tate vs. Robiskie is a more interesting debate. Robiskie strikes me as a Michael Jenkins/Reggie Brown type. He's decent at many things and great at nothing. I could see him putting up 600-800 yards in the near future, but I don't think he has much upside unless the stars align perfectly. Tate is much more of a boom-or-bust pick. He could be a productive starter like Derrick Mason or he could be a total bust. You'll have to wait 2-3 years to find out. Robiskie is the safer pick and the better short term option, but Tate is the flashier athlete with the higher ceiling. I tend to swing for the fences, so I would go with Tate. I wouldn't fault anyone for taking Robiskie though.

 

[Biabreakable]

I also want to bring up that when one is making a dynasty ranking or any ranking that nothing is set in stone. However when ranking for dynasty and rookies you have to be disciplined. This is a marathon not a race and the creme will rise to the top with any luck.

I think Mike Thomas is very talented for example but I see him being a player too similar to other players on the roster which I see limiting his role. For example if MJD is injured I could see Thomas getting more targets on screen passes and plays that cater to his strengths. But when the coaching staff has a choice of targeting MJD for those plays Thomas will probably be bench. And more of his work will be special teams. Likewise in his compitition with Holt, Dillard, Northcutt ect.

So using this example one may have Thomas as a player who's talent is too great to ignore and believe that the creme will rise to the top. But I see that as a long term investment that you may still be wondering what you have 3 years from now. With how quickly things change that is not something I want to be heavily invested in. It ties up roster space while your waiting to see what you have.

Same thing with Tate. I don't see him doing anything for at least 3 years regardless of his talent. Because of what I think of Moss and Welker. I don't see him being able to rise above that. But if for some reason Moss and Welker are not with the Patriots in 2011 his opportunity could be much better than it looks right now.

Still don't think I have hit home the main point I am trying to make however.

Which is a dynasty ranking is certainly subject to change as new information comes to light. However these rankings are made with a long term commitment in judgement of all of these angles in mind. And there will not be answers to many of these rankings until 3 years from now as far as how right/wrong our assessments/judgements were. Just because a guy blows up as a rookie does not make them better than a player EBF or I may have ranked higher than them. We won't be able to judge that properly until at least 3 years from now. EBF has a more talent based and longer term viewpoint than I do. Much of my decisions come from the situation as much as the player talent. Sometimes moreso. There are many players who do not even make final roster cuts who could be fantastic FF players if given the opportunity. Doesen't mean those players would not still be at risk of losing that opportunity to another more talented player however even if they do.

So it is a balancing act. For the most part my views will not change significantly without evidence proving them wrong (which will certainly happen). Even when that happens I will still be commited to my rankings for the most part over the next 3 years however as I have already focused on these things and those possibilities.

I had Austin Collie ranked pretty high in my initial take. News has come out since then that he will not compete for WR3 with the Colts and will play gunner. Not a position any coach would have thier WR play if they have plans for him to see significant time in the offense because of the greater risk of injury. So that is a case where I would make a dramatic change in my rankings based off of the new information. But for the most part I will stick to my guns without such information making me reconsider it.

Hope that makes sense. It was kind of hard for me to find the right words to express what I am trying to say.

 

[Dutch Kincade]

This is a marathon not a race ...Hope that makes sense. It was kind of hard for me to find the right words to express what I am trying to say.

 

[grtwhtsk]

So it is a balancing act. For the most part my views will not change significantly without evidence proving them wrong (which will certainly happen). Even when that happens I will still be commited to my rankings for the most part over the next 3 years however as I have already focused on these things and those possibilities.I had Austin Collie ranked pretty high in my initial take. News has come out since then that he will not compete for WR3 with the Colts and will play gunner. Not a position any coach would have thier WR play if they have plans for him to see significant time in the offense because of the greater risk of injury. So that is a case where I would make a dramatic change in my rankings based off of the new information. But for the most part I will stick to my guns without such information making me reconsider it.

Biabreakable - Do you have dynasty rankings for the rookies that we could take a look at?

 

[grtwhtsk]

So it is a balancing act. For the most part my views will not change significantly without evidence proving them wrong (which will certainly happen). Even when that happens I will still be commited to my rankings for the most part over the next 3 years however as I have already focused on these things and those possibilities.I had Austin Collie ranked pretty high in my initial take. News has come out since then that he will not compete for WR3 with the Colts and will play gunner. Not a position any coach would have thier WR play if they have plans for him to see significant time in the offense because of the greater risk of injury. So that is a case where I would make a dramatic change in my rankings based off of the new information. But for the most part I will stick to my guns without such information making me reconsider it.

Biabreakable - Do you have dynasty rankings for the rookies that we could take a look at?

My apologies...just saw your thread.

 

[EBF]

The season is almost upon us. There's still time to make some moves before the values start shifting. Here are my latest thoughts:

BUY

Stephen McGee - Sneaky upside QB available for cheap. This year's Edwards/Schaub/Hasselbeck?

Shonn Greene - My favorite value in this RB class.

Gartrell Johnson - Don't go crazy for a 4th round RB with 4.7 speed, but I think he can be a decent committee back.

Percy Harvin - My favorite value in this WR class.

Brandon Tate - The most interesting value of the WRs chosen in the third round of the NFL draft. Requires patience.

SELL

Josh Freeman - Just a hunch that Tampa will be a disaster for the next 2-3 years and Freeman will sink with the ship.

Kenny Britt - The odds say 2-3 of the first round WRs will ultimately bust. My money is on Britt to claim one of those spots.

Darrius Heyward-Bey - Underachiever. Oakland. Al Davis. He has to bust, right?

Brian Robiskie - Maybe it was the lingering ACL that made him look mediocre. Or maybe he just isn't very good.

HOLD

Everyone else

I like Moreno, Crabtree, Harvin, Greene, and Nicks at the top of the draft. If you have a top 9 pick, you should be able to get one of these guys. Harvin and Greene are probably the two players that I rank highest above the consensus.

I'm lukewarm on Wells, D. Brown, McCoy and Maclin. I don't own them on any dynasty teams. Wells has immediate boom potential though.

Picks 10-20 are wide open. That's just another way of saying there's no one good available. In this range I'm probably taking a shot on Stafford, Sanchez, G. Johnson, A. Brown, Tate, or Dillard depending on league format and how high I pick. I favor Sanchez slighty over Stafford due to situational strength.

Picks 21+ are a complete crapshoot. The talent here is very sketchy. I generally grab Tate or Dillard if they fall. I like McGee in this range if you can afford to wait. You might be able to get him a round later though. Thomas, Massaquoi, Butler, Wallace, Barden, Turner, Iglesias, Knox, McKinley... . There's gotta be a decent player buried in that group somewhere. Good luck trying to pick the right one because they all have warts.

James Davis, Bernard Scott, and Rashad Jennings? I already read this book. It was called Antoine Womack. Or was it Quincy Wilson? No wait, I think it was called Cedric Cobbs. On second thought...I can't remember. And in two years, no one will remember any of these rooks.

I haven't drafted a TE in any of my rookie drafts this year. Not very impressed with this group despite the hype.

 

[Kleck]

BUY

Shonn Greene - My favorite value in this RB class.

I like Moreno, Crabtree, Harvin, Greene, and Nicks at the top of the draft. If you have a top 9 pick, you should be able to get one of these guys. Harvin and Greene are probably the two players that I rank highest above the consensus.

I feel the same way about Greene. I moved up from 1.08 to 1.06 just to help ensure I get Greene, and I would move up another spot or two if I could. His situation and fit with the Jets is being heavily underrated, IMO. Greene brings a set of skills to the Jets running game that I don't see from Washington and Jones. Jones may be coming off a fantastic year, but combining his age and no more Favre, I see him falling fast and hard this year. And because of that, I've grabbed Greene late in every redraft I've had this year.

 

[JAA]

The season is almost upon us. There's still time to make some moves before the values start shifting. Here are my latest thoughts:

BUY

Stephen McGee - Sneaky upside QB available for cheap. This year's Edwards/Schaub/Hasselbeck?

Shonn Greene - My favorite value in this RB class.

Gartrell Johnson - Don't go crazy for a 4th round RB with 4.7 speed, but I think he can be a decent committee back.

Percy Harvin - My favorite value in this WR class.

Brandon Tate - The most interesting value of the WRs chosen in the third round of the NFL draft. Requires patience.

SELL

Josh Freeman - Just a hunch that Tampa will be a disaster for the next 2-3 years and Freeman will sink with the ship.

Kenny Britt - The odds say 2-3 of the first round WRs will ultimately bust. My money is on Britt to claim one of those spots.

Darrius Heyward-Bey - Underachiever. Oakland. Al Davis. He has to bust, right?

Brian Robiskie - Maybe it was the lingering ACL that made him look mediocre. Or maybe he just isn't very good.

HOLD

Everyone else

I like Moreno, Crabtree, Harvin, Greene, and Nicks at the top of the draft. If you have a top 9 pick, you should be able to get one of these guys. Harvin and Greene are probably the two players that I rank highest above the consensus.

I'm lukewarm on Wells, D. Brown, McCoy and Maclin. I don't own them on any dynasty teams. Wells has immediate boom potential though.

Picks 10-20 are wide open. That's just another way of saying there's no one good available. In this range I'm probably taking a shot on Stafford, Sanchez, G. Johnson, A. Brown, Tate, or Dillard depending on league format and how high I pick. I favor Sanchez slighty over Stafford due to situational strength.

Picks 21+ are a complete crapshoot. The talent here is very sketchy. I generally grab Tate or Dillard if they fall. I like McGee in this range if you can afford to wait. You might be able to get him a round later though. Thomas, Massaquoi, Butler, Wallace, Barden, Turner, Iglesias, Knox, McKinley... . There's gotta be a decent player buried in that group somewhere. Good luck trying to pick the right one because they all have warts.

James Davis, Bernard Scott, and Rashad Jennings? I already read this book. It was called Antoine Womack. Or was it Quincy Wilson? No wait, I think it was called Cedric Cobbs. On second thought...I can't remember. And in two years, no one will remember any of these rooks.

I haven't drafted a TE in any of my rookie drafts this year. Not very impressed with this group despite the hype.

I think Ingram presents awesome dynasty TE value

 

[EBF]

Ingram is probably the most interesting value in the TE class. His physical talent is impressive, but he has injury/motivation issues. He certainly has the potential to become a good pro if he maximizes his ability.

 

[offdee]

Ingram is probably the most interesting value in the TE class. His physical talent is impressive, but he has injury/motivation issues. He certainly has the potential to become a good pro if he maximizes his ability.

I can't get past thinking of Ben Troupe when I look at Ingram. They seem to be the exact same type of player coming out of Florida.

 

[finfansteve]

EBF- any changes in your rankings of the top 10 rookies for dynasty leagues?

 

[EBF]

EBF- any changes in your rankings of the top 10 rookies for dynasty leagues?

Yea, there's a new list here:http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...=483159&hl=

The top 7-8 spots are pretty close at this point.