Dynasty QB thread (1 Viewer)

[Sabertooth]

I play in a Start 2 QB dynasty league so obviously the quarterback position is paramount to success. So guys like Newton, Gabbert, and Dalton are in play right off the bat. So I'm really trying to do my diligence on the quarterbacks from this class.

I noticed a couple of things when looking at drafthistory.com

QBs taken in the first round since 2004. Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, JP Losman, Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler, Jamarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Matt Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow.

First, quarterbacks are judged pretty accurately, especially when taken in the first round. By my quick and probably flawed (that's why we have discussions) estimation, we have 19 quarterbacks taken in the first round since 2004. Only 20% are pure busts. Losman, Leinart, Russell, Quinn. That's it. And two came in the same season, a year when Kevin Kolb is the only guy that is starting right now. So just a bad crop there.

Secondly, quarterbacks selected in the first will generate some stats. They get their shot. This may seem intuitive and probably is. They get a chance to show their ability in game situations. Usually within the first year and always within the first two years. Many can argue that guys like Smith were thrown in too early, but here he sits 6 years later atop the depth chart. Campbell is another one. He isn't great, but there he sits.

Third, you are most likely to get your stud quarterbacks in the first round. Period. This list is loaded with pro bowlers and playoff winners. 3 of them are super bowl champs. If you go back further, Vick, Peyton, Palmer are three more #1 overall guys that had a ton of success.

Quarterbacks are as good a bet as there is to find your future gems. I went into this research expecting to find that QBs are generally groomed and they will not help you right away. But in 2QB league, where scarcity is higher, they can help you with depth right away, and they are a much better bet than RB and WR to be future studs.

 

[mcintyre1]

In a start 2QB league, I agree that they are a great investment to bolster your team. Unfortunately, I get the feeling that this year will be an exception to the 20% bust rate. I don't think anyone expected this QB crop to be so highly drafted, and I feel like the guys at the top have more warts than you would normally see for their draft position.

 

[Sabertooth]

In a start 2QB league, I agree that they are a great investment to bolster your team. Unfortunately, I get the feeling that this year will be an exception to the 20% bust rate. I don't think anyone expected this QB crop to be so highly drafted, and I feel like the guys at the top have more warts than you would normally see for their draft position.

I agree. But you had 4 guys in the top 12 picks this season. I think Ponder was more of a 2nd round type guy but Newton, Locker, and Gabbert all appear to be 1st round grades. Gabbert seems like he could be Big Ben 2.0 but without the off the field stuff.

 

[Sabertooth]

Three weeks later and it appears that only Newton of the first rounders will get his shot early on. I'm really starting to think that Gabbert or Locker are going to be the best here but both have pretty substantial roadblocks to getting on the field. But make no mistake, there is no Aaron Rodgers in this class that is going to sit behind a great player for several years. I'd bet that every one of the first rounders selected in 2011 will have a start within this season or the next.

I'd rate them long term like this.

Gabbert

Locker

Newton

Ponder

 

[Boone22]

If we are talking Dynasty the I think Mallet, Hoyer, and Flynn have to be in the conversation as well if they aren't already rostered. These are guys who should get a starting shot in the next 2 years.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Interesting you said Kolb is the only one from that class starting right now. I'm in the middle of a superflex rookie/FA draft so

I ended up not taking any of the rookie QBs in my superflex draft this year. I would have taken Newton if he lasted til my 1st, and I would have taken Ponder if he lasted til my 2nd. But the warts on Locker, Gabbert, Dalton, and Kaepernick just made them too unappealing to take over RB/WR who could help now. I would trade any of those 4 or Ponder for McCoy, Tebow, or Sanchez.

Gabbert is seeming more like Chad Henne 2.0 than Ben 2.0 to me. You can brush off his low TD total last year, but all he's done this preseason is fail to score TDs.

Mallet actually went before Dalton in my draft, and while I am warming to him, the wait was too long for my roster size. (Could argue he's closer to a Ben 2.0 candidate given he went to a great organization. If questions on Ben were there pre-draft how far would he have dropped.)

 

[SSOG]

I believe it's Drinen who is fond of saying that drafting QBs in the first round is the worst way to get QBs... except for every other way.