Dynasty Rankings (3 Viewers)

[hephner]

Sorry, but this knee stuff is still new and doesn't bother me. The shoulder wasn't the only injury he sustained last season, so that argument doesn't affect my judgement. Gore tore ligaments in both ankles in college, so my point is that he poses more of an injury risk IMO.

Still new? It's been going on all off-season. For the most part, Gore's injuries are from several years ago. He actually played through injuries to both shoulders his rookie season. Is he an injury risk? Sure, but I'm more concerned about a player with current leg injuries coming off a major shoulder injury than I am about a player who had injuries several years ago in college. It's debatable which one is the bigger injury risk, and I obviously think Gore is less of a risk over the next couple of seasons.

I could care less about the so-called "rest of the football world" on this board. There is a very limited amount of opinions that I respect on this board. Most of the hate is this board is just people following the masses, who tends to be wrong the majority of the time. Betts is nowhere near the talent Portis is.

You make some very good points here, but the rest of the football world isn't just the FBG message boards. Betts is not the talent that Portis is, but he is coming off a more productive stretch of games than Portis has ever had with Washington. At the very least, Betts is going to be the passing down back in this offense...as indicated by the Redskins' coaching staff. Doubtlessly, he will be playing more this year than he did 2 years ago if only to keep Portis fresh and decrease the chances of further injury. Despite your zealous insistence, I believe Betts will have a definitive impact on Portis' value going forward. That explains why I rank Gore and Portis where I do.

It's arguable about who is the better player. Portis is a second round pick, and Gore was a third. Both might have been first rounders if it wasn't for certain issues. Portis had a fumbling problem, and Gore fell to the third because of his prior injuries. Portis has still been a very good fantasy back in Washington. He hasn't been as good as he was in Denver, but still very good. In fact, he has scored more points than Gore did last year. I only went back to Portis's first three years in which he was in the league, but all three years he did better, even his third in which he was in Washington.

I don't think it's arguable at all. This isn't the Clinton Portis of four years ago. He's a different player now, especially when you factor in the possibility that a percentage of his impressive production in Denver was a product of Denver's offensive system. As we've both noticed, he hasn't been nearly as productive in Washington. Frank Gore is one of the top handful of RBs in the league. Considering NFL production, only Tomlinson and Steven Jackson were better last season -- and the last one is debatable.Gore rushed for just shy of 1700 yards last season and added 485 yards receiving on 61 receptions for nearly 2200 total yards. If you take the best marks of Portis' career in those categories, he comes up short in all of them. Considering that Gore is just hitting his prime while Portis is just passing his prime, I don't see a reason to rank Portis close to Gore in value. Throw in Gore's monumental advantage in the receiving game, and it's a landslide in PPR leagues.

Must be a Portis owner.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Gore rushed for just shy of 1700 yards last season and added 485 yards receiving on 61 receptions for nearly 2200 total yards. If you take the best marks of Portis' career in those categories, he comes up short in all of them. Considering that Gore is just hitting his prime while Portis is just passing his prime, I don't see a reason to rank Portis close to Gore in value. Throw in Gore's monumental advantage in the receiving game, and it's a landslide in PPR leagues.

According to my leagues scoring Gore hasn't come close to being the stud Portis has been. And as far as value goes, Portis is a much greater value due to the fact that people read what I feel as "junk" views about him that allows him to slip waaaaaaaay down the line. Call me crazy, but I'd draft Portis over Gore any day due to the fact he has been a consistent stud. Gore has only had one good year and has a longer history of injuries. I'm not bashing your rankings, they're yours. I just questioned them and have provided a valid argument for my view.

Fair enough. But according to FBG scoring, Portis hasn't sniffed Gore's '06 fantasy points since his 2nd season in the league. Again, his Washington production -- both NFL and fantasy -- has dropped significantly below the level of his first 2 season in Denver. A runner who averaged an eye-popping 5.5 YPC in Denver has averaged a yard and a half less per carry in Washington. Meanwhile, with his own eye-opening 5.4 YPC and 1,023 rushing yards in the last 8 games of the '06 season, Gore has picked up where Denver Portis left off.To borrow from Rick Pitino: "The Denver Portis is not walking through that door."

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I'm experimenting with something new on the Quarterbacks in the page 1 rankings. Let me know if this is an ill-fated idea or not.

I've changed the default color on the number values from red to plain black. This should allow me to color code based on values rising or values falling per the key below:

Green = Player's value is rising

Red = Player's value is falling

Gray = Recent news or change in situation could affect player's value

Check out page 1 for the QB examples. Should I ditch this or keep it?

 

[Illegal Pants Downfield]

Color-coding gets a

Can I suggest that you use a yellow or something for the "recent news may affect ranking"? Gray looks too much like the black...difficult to differentiate at a glance.

 

[buzzhunter]

I'm experimenting with something new on the Quarterbacks in the page 1 rankings. Let me know if this is an ill-fated idea or not.

I've changed the default color on the number values from red to plain black. This should allow me to color code based on values rising or values falling per the key below:

Green = Player's value is rising

Red = Player's value is falling

Gray = Recent news or change in situation could affect player's value

Check out page 1 for the QB examples. Should I ditch this or keep it?

Color coding = AWESOME

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

Love the color-coding idea, and I do agree with making the recent news one a little more eye-popping than gray.

As always, outstanding work F&L. This has been my favorite thread throughout the entire off-season. I'm sorry we can't get everything being offered on Rotoworld, but I (and many others) appreciate the time you spend on keeping the rankings updated and providing great insight.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Color-coding gets a Can I suggest that you use a yellow or something for the "recent news may affect ranking"? Gray looks too much like the black...difficult to differentiate at a glance.

Thanks for the feedback.I was afraid to try the yellow because I think the green is already a bit too bright. Trying yellow right now...Verdict: retina burning bright.I think the next shade lighter of gray will be a good substitute. It should be different enough from black to notice, but it won't jump off the page and smack your retina quite like yellow.I have to get to class, so I'll finish the other positions tonight.

 

[gianmarco]

Color-coding gets a

Can I suggest that you use a yellow or something for the "recent news may affect ranking"? Gray looks too much like the black...difficult to differentiate at a glance.

Thanks for the feedback.I was afraid to try the yellow because I think the green is already a bit too bright. Trying yellow right now...

Verdict: retina burning bright.

I think the next shade lighter of gray will be a good substitute. It should be different enough from black to notice, but it won't jump off the page and smack your retina quite like yellow.

I have to get to class, so I'll finish the other positions tonight.

Have fun at recess too

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Green and red are perfect colors and I love color coding period.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I have to get to class, so I'll finish the other positions tonight.

Have fun at recess too

I just went back this summer for the first time in years. The make-up of summer classes is different of course, but my oddness is a bit more evident now when the rest of the student body is here. My hair is going about 405 in the power alleys these days. It's pretty easy to tell who the 33-year-old is sitting in the middle of a group of 19-year-old girls.

My first year in college back in '92, I had the same thirtysomething in half of my classes. He looked like the comic book store guy from The Simpsons. On the first day of the semester, he went out of his way to explain to the whole class how Three Dog Night got their band name. I must have heard that story three or four times just on the first day. My goal is to not be that guy.

 

[3nOut]

From a usability perspective, i'd recommend using a darker green and maybe an orange or medium blue for the "news worthy". By the way, when is your next update due?

 

[basenjiwarrior]

Wow!!! What a great thread!!Thank you F&L!!

I am only a second year fantasy football player and like many, take in as much information as I can.

I felt compelled to register to say thanks for sharing your knowledge and to ask you a question.

I have a supplemental draft coming up in a week.

We have a 2 round supplemental draft before our auction and are working with a $100.00 cap.

I have three keepers from last year: LT at $32,Parker at $7 and Gore at $5.

We start rbs, 3 wrs and have a flex(obviously, i'll start a rb in that spot)(ITS A PPR LEAGUE FOR RECEIVERS)

From what it looks like here will be my choices to choose from:

Manning $28

McNabb $9

Young $1

Romo $1

Norwood $4 I LIST THESE rbs FOR TRADE BAIT...AS I WOULD TAKE THEM DUE TO VALUE AND TRADE

Jacobs $5

Caddy $8

S.Moss $5

galloway $2

Cotchery $1

Branch $4

Edwards $5

coles $6

V. Jackson $1

R.Brown $8

V.Davis $7

Chicago D $1

Balt. D $2

Obviously, I want to spend as little as possible and maximize production for this year. The less I spend at the supplemental round the more I have for the auction. (and for bidding on AD!!!!)

Thanks so much- I purchaesed the online Rotoworld guide and really enjoy your rankings.

Do you anticipate writing more there? What about a blog?

Could you possibly rank these players in order of preference for adding to my team if you were in my shoes. Maybe rank from 1-10? Thanks!!!

 

[ConstruxBoy]

I have to get to class, so I'll finish the other positions tonight.

Have fun at recess too

I just went back this summer for the first time in years. The make-up of summer classes is different of course, but my oddness is a bit more evident now when the rest of the student body is here. My hair is going about 405 in the power alleys these days. It's pretty easy to tell who the 33-year-old is sitting in the middle of a group of 19-year-old girls.

My first year in college back in '92, I had the same thirtysomething in half of my classes. He looked like the comic book store guy from The Simpsons. On the first day of the semester, he went out of his way to explain to the whole class how Three Dog Night got their band name. I must have heard that story three or four times just on the first day. My goal is to not be that guy.

Worst.....story.....ever!

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Wow!!! What a great thread!!Thank you F&L!!I am only a second year fantasy football player and like many, take in as much information as I can.I felt compelled to register to say thanks for sharing your knowledge and to ask you a question.I have a supplemental draft coming up in a week.We have a 2 round supplemental draft before our auction and are working with a $100.00 cap.I have three keepers from last year: LT at $32,Parker at $7 and Gore at $5.We start rbs, 3 wrs and have a flex(obviously, i'll start a rb in that spot)(ITS A PPR LEAGUE FOR RECEIVERS)From what it looks like here will be my choices to choose from:Manning $28McNabb $9Young $1Romo $1Norwood $4 I LIST THESE rbs FOR TRADE BAIT...AS I WOULD TAKE THEM DUE TO VALUE AND TRADEJacobs $5Caddy $8S.Moss $5galloway $2Cotchery $1Branch $4Edwards $5coles $6V. Jackson $1R.Brown $8V.Davis $7Chicago D $1Balt. D $2Obviously, I want to spend as little as possible and maximize production for this year. The less I spend at the supplemental round the more I have for the auction. (and for bidding on AD!!!!)Thanks so much- I purchaesed the online Rotoworld guide and really enjoy your rankings. Do you anticipate writing more there? What about a blog?Could you possibly rank these players in order of preference for adding to my team if you were in my shoes. Maybe rank from 1-10? Thanks!!!

Thanks for the kind words, basenjiwarrior. Re: Rotoworld. I'm not sure yet how this will all play out long term. I thought the Top 200 Weekly Dynasty & Re-Draft would be free material, but it hasn't left the Draft Guide, and I'm afraid it might go into the "Season Pass" pay material once the season starts. I did send them a proposal for a regular column/blog, and, while they were interested, they said they're going to hold off for now. This is really their first major flirtation with dynasty coverage, and they seem to be a little slow in coming to grips with how large of a niche dynasty leagues have carved out in the business. I obviously think they need to concentrate more on that aspect and hope they will realize its potential for growth in the near future. We'll see. But thanks for checking it out. If you want to see more, drop them a line and tell them you like the site but what you would really like to see is more dynasty coverage. I'm sure they appreciate any suggestive feedback they receive.Unfortunately, I've never done a supplemental draft, and it's been awhile between auctions for me. This is certainly not my forte, but I'll give it a shot. Just remember to take all of this with a grain of salt considering my lack of experience in this format.First of all, is this a Dynasty league? I'm assuming it is since it's in this thread. You obviously have RB sewn up, so I would concentrate most of your efforts on cheap WRs & QBs. Throw in the fact that you need to keep a good chunk of the $100 for the auction, and I think you need to go cheap.Top 101. Vince Young $12. Donovan McNabb $93. Tony Romo $14. Vincent Jackson $15. Bears D $16. Vernon Davis $77. Santana Moss $58. Braylon Edwards $59. Brandon Jacobs $510. Pu Pu Platter: Cotchery, Coles, Norwood, Branch. I'd actually give some thought to Reggie Brown too depending on what you think he would go for in the auction.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Love the color-coding idea, and I do agree with making the recent news one a little more eye-popping than gray.As always, outstanding work F&L. This has been my favorite thread throughout the entire off-season. I'm sorry we can't get everything being offered on Rotoworld, but I (and many others) appreciate the time you spend on keeping the rankings updated and providing great insight.

Ted Lange as your Bartender,...and Judy McCoy as your Cruise Director. Sorry...god, I watched that show every week when I was a kid. I faked interest at first, just so my mom would let me stay up late. Then I got hooked. Anyway, thanks for the good feedback. I know you've been on this thread since the beginning, so jump in more often and throw some opinions around.Edit to add: thanks to the others for the feedback as well, especially Borbely and buzzhunter.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

From a usability perspective, i'd recommend using a darker green and maybe an orange or medium blue for the "news worthy". By the way, when is your next update due?

Darker green was too close to black. I may yet try a blue.Re: Updates. You're seeing it on page 1, which is fully up to date...and hopefully will continue to be up to date on a regular basis. See posts #560 & #624 for further explanation on why I am no longer throwing in fresh player comments with the updates.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I have to get to class, so I'll finish the other positions tonight.

Have fun at recess too

I just went back this summer for the first time in years. The make-up of summer classes is different of course, but my oddness is a bit more evident now when the rest of the student body is here. My hair is going about 405 in the power alleys these days. It's pretty easy to tell who the 33-year-old is sitting in the middle of a group of 19-year-old girls.

My first year in college back in '92, I had the same thirtysomething in half of my classes. He looked like the comic book store guy from The Simpsons. On the first day of the semester, he went out of his way to explain to the whole class how Three Dog Night got their band name. I must have heard that story three or four times just on the first day. My goal is to not be that guy.

Worst.....story.....ever!

Your reply is lame and derivative!

 

[THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA]

GREAT WORK F&L

Loving the color codes as well.

I brought up a Dynasty ranking by number values over a year ago, im glad to finally see it.

(i see you Jerrod, and Jeff, what yall trying to do....trade? )

 

[basenjiwarrior]

Wow!!! What a great thread!!Thank you F&L!!I am only a second year fantasy football player and like many, take in as much information as I can.I felt compelled to register to say thanks for sharing your knowledge and to ask you a question.I have a supplemental draft coming up in a week.We have a 2 round supplemental draft before our auction and are working with a $100.00 cap.I have three keepers from last year: LT at $32,Parker at $7 and Gore at $5.We start rbs, 3 wrs and have a flex(obviously, i'll start a rb in that spot)(ITS A PPR LEAGUE FOR RECEIVERS)From what it looks like here will be my choices to choose from:Manning $28McNabb $9Young $1Romo $1Norwood $4 I LIST THESE rbs FOR TRADE BAIT...AS I WOULD TAKE THEM DUE TO VALUE AND TRADEJacobs $5Caddy $8S.Moss $5galloway $2Cotchery $1Branch $4Edwards $5coles $6V. Jackson $1R.Brown $8V.Davis $7Chicago D $1Balt. D $2Obviously, I want to spend as little as possible and maximize production for this year. The less I spend at the supplemental round the more I have for the auction. (and for bidding on AD!!!!)Thanks so much- I purchaesed the online Rotoworld guide and really enjoy your rankings. Do you anticipate writing more there? What about a blog?Could you possibly rank these players in order of preference for adding to my team if you were in my shoes. Maybe rank from 1-10? Thanks!!!

Thanks for the kind words, basenjiwarrior. Re: Rotoworld. I'm not sure yet how this will all play out long term. I thought the Top 200 Weekly Dynasty & Re-Draft would be free material, but it hasn't left the Draft Guide, and I'm afraid it might go into the "Season Pass" pay material once the season starts. I did send them a proposal for a regular column/blog, and, while they were interested, they said they're going to hold off for now. This is really their first major flirtation with dynasty coverage, and they seem to be a little slow in coming to grips with how large of a niche dynasty leagues have carved out in the business. I obviously think they need to concentrate more on that aspect and hope they will realize its potential for growth in the near future. We'll see. But thanks for checking it out. If you want to see more, drop them a line and tell them you like the site but what you would really like to see is more dynasty coverage. I'm sure they appreciate any suggestive feedback they receive.Unfortunately, I've never done a supplemental draft, and it's been awhile between auctions for me. This is certainly not my forte, but I'll give it a shot. Just remember to take all of this with a grain of salt considering my lack of experience in this format.First of all, is this a Dynasty league? I'm assuming it is since it's in this thread. You obviously have RB sewn up, so I would concentrate most of your efforts on cheap WRs & QBs. Throw in the fact that you need to keep a good chunk of the $100 for the auction, and I think you need to go cheap.Top 101. Vince Young $12. Donovan McNabb $93. Tony Romo $14. Vincent Jackson $15. Bears D $16. Vernon Davis $77. Santana Moss $58. Braylon Edwards $59. Brandon Jacobs $510. Pu Pu Platter: Cotchery, Coles, Norwood, Branch. I'd actually give some thought to Reggie Brown too depending on what you think he would go for in the auction.

Thank you for taking the time to respond.I will be sure to contact Rotoworld to push for more dynasty coverage and your rankings inparticular.I do have a dynasty team- but this question in particular has to do with a three player keeper team. So I still do try to keep a bit of an eye on potential.So in the instance would you still pick young over mcnabb? young over others like cutler,leinart and rivers who are also only $1.00 for this years production?What about WR...for this year...still Vincent Jackson over Moss and Edwards?( or santonio holmes at $5-) I am half tempted to blow the 28- on Manning and 1- on Chicago's defense and then have a lineup of manning,LT, gore,parker chicago's defense and just fill in the rest with lottery tickets.Thanks again.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I do have a dynasty team- but this question in particular has to do with a three player keeper team. So I still do try to keep a bit of an eye on potential.So in the instance would you still pick young over mcnabb? young over others like cutler,leinart and rivers who are also only $1.00 for this years production?What about WR...for this year...still Vincent Jackson over Moss and Edwards?( or santonio holmes at $5-) I am half tempted to blow the 28- on Manning and 1- on Chicago's defense and then have a lineup of manning,LT, gore,parker chicago's defense and just fill in the rest with lottery tickets.Thanks again.

Well, that's a horse of a different color. In that case, I'd go for the gusto. I agree. Either blow the 28 on Manning or hope to get McNabb for 9 (and spend the savings on a stud WR or two) and grab the Bears defense. If it was me, as much as I like Manning as a fantasy QB, I'd go with McNabb at 9 and aim as high as possible on WRs.For just this year, I would go with Moss, Edwards, or Holmes over V.Jackson. Out of that group, S.Moss is the safest pick. To answer the first question, I like Young & Leinart and Rivers is close, but I think Cutler is step down from those three for this season. Bottom line: You have the nucleus to win it all this year, so try to get the best talent you can at QB & WR. I wouldn't worry about depth as much as premium quality.

 

[thecardiackid]

 

[ckalltheway]

I've posted this in the Assistant Coach forum too but I wanted Fear And Loathing and the others in this thread to see this. First time caller, long time listener.

First time in a keeper league but have played redrafts for about ten years.

Was really short picks so traded away Travis Henry, Willie Parker (neither I'm really high on IMHO) and Lendale White and now have many picks and two wideouts (Got 1-7 and TO for FWP, 2-6 and a 2nd next year.) Rest of team was brutal.

Must start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 Flex, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DL, 1 LB, 1DB. PPR and extra points awarded for long touchdowns (especially rushing. 5 bonus for 50+. 5 bonus for 70 for WR and QB.) My keepers are Chad Johnson, Terrell Owens, Willis McGahee and Cedric Benson (U25er.)

So I have 1-5 and 1-7 and I really want to make the most of them. And there's a lot out there.

ADP, Marshawn, B Jackson and CJ obviously. But there's also A Gates, T Jones, L Evans, A Boldin, D Driver, B Jacobs, A Green, J Lewis, J Cutler, V Young, C Taylor, L Jordan, L Coles, D Foster, D Jax, S***na, P Rivers... and well, lots of people.

Plan A along has been (if possible) Antonio Gates at 5 and CJ at 7. The league doesn't seem to be high on drafting rookie WR's early but is all over rookie and starting RBs. Because you have to start 2 every week. So I think I'll be able to get CJ at 7. In fact, a lot of people think that is a massive overpay but he won't be at 3-6 and what if he turns into the next Marvin or Jerry or the next Owens, Jordan, Gretzky and Jesus combined? He's a rookie and people are double covering him in pre-season games. That's respect. I get to keep him for three years for sure and maybe forever. And Gates? TE's tend to not go early and Gonzales was only 20 points back last year in this league but he's the best. And I think the gap on everyone else will be larger this year.

Plan B is going for two guys who are going to start and do well IMHO and just hope some other rookie I draft later pans out well enough later to be my under 25er next year. My choice if possible would be Lee Evans at 5 and then Brandon Jacobs at 7.

Plan C could maybe be Gates and Cutler or Rivers. Or if Gates goes grab CJ for sure at 5 and then maybe Jacobs or Ahman Green? Or Deshaun Foster? Or something one of you have in mind.

I'm not going to grab the kid from GB or two wideouts. WRs are very hard to trade in this league. Guy who had Boldin couldn't even get people to budge for a 4th round pick over the summer. So lemme know what you think.

Guy who drafts first is grabbing ADP and also has 1-6 and plans to draft a wideout and really likes Lee Evans. He wouldn't draft 2 rookies already having Steven Jackson, Marion Barber, Jones-Drew and Fitzgerald? Or could he?

Man this is long. Thoughts ponderances appreciated. Been excited for this for weeks. It's like playing for the first time all over again. But better.

 

[ckalltheway]

I got that wrong. I got the extra 2nd in the TO/FWP trade.

 

[ckalltheway]

12 team league described above.

 

[Koya]

Some things that pop out at me:

McNabb - he has the potential to be a #1 QB any given year. But he has the likelihood of being that for only part of the season before getting hurt. In a dynasty, too much risk to put ahead of the other guys.

Garcia - How is he behind the likes of Joey Harrington? Even at his age, Garcia has a better chance to have three solid FF seasons, two good-really good ones and one great one than Harrington does for the rest of his career. I think you need to give Garcia a nod as a two year starter and then we will see with the potential to put up very very good numbers in that system (Gannon, anyone? He was 100 too)

W Parker - Why is this guy so low? He has shown that he can play a full season, score a ton of TDs, get long plays, do short yardage when needed, catch the ball. What does this guy need to do to be above Ronnie "hasnt done squat" brown? I dont see how he can be that far below Gore, esp. with Gores injury concerns

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Some things that pop out at me:McNabb - he has the potential to be a #1 QB any given year. But he has the likelihood of being that for only part of the season before getting hurt. In a dynasty, too much risk to put ahead of the other guys.Garcia - How is he behind the likes of Joey Harrington? Even at his age, Garcia has a better chance to have three solid FF seasons, two good-really good ones and one great one than Harrington does for the rest of his career. I think you need to give Garcia a nod as a two year starter and then we will see with the potential to put up very very good numbers in that system (Gannon, anyone? He was 100 too)W Parker - Why is this guy so low? He has shown that he can play a full season, score a ton of TDs, get long plays, do short yardage when needed, catch the ball. What does this guy need to do to be above Ronnie "hasnt done squat" brown? I dont see how he can be that far below Gore, esp. with Gores injury concerns

From the conversation back on page 6, post #268 regarding McNabb:

I've seen people knock McNabb for his injury proclivities, but I think most of that criticism misses the point. It's on you to find a reliable back-up for your dynasty team if McNabb is your starter. If he puts up elite production while he's healthy, you have a leg up on all but 2 or 3 teams in the league. If McNabb goes down and you can plug in a Kitna last year, or Delhomme the year before, or Favre the year before that (among others), then you aren't really losing a competitive edge. Better to have an injury prone tremendous advantage for half the season (and a reliable back-up) than to have a guy who puts up production that is closer to the pack for a whole season.

McNabb's injury risk doesn't scare me off. If I had McNabb, I'd just back myself up with a solid/overlooked vet and enjoy the advantage McNabb gives me over most of the other owners in the league while he is healthy. Jeff Garcia? Are you serious with this? Gruden's system? Come on. How did the Bucs QBs do in Gruden's system last year? The year before that? So Garcia gets a pass on the embarrassing eggs he laid in SF in '03, CLE in '04 and DET in '05 simply because he had an overly ballyhooed month with the Eagles last year? He's no longer a good QB, and he's certainly not going to be a good fantasy QB in Tampa's lifeless offense. Jeff Garcia isn't Rich Gannon, and he's not throwing to Jerry Rice, Tim Brown and Jerry Porter. Look, I think Harrington is a turd too, but to feel secure that either of them have any value beyond week-to-week is foolish in my opinion. If Chris Simms wasn't so brutal (nice signing by the way, Bucs), then I'd put the odds at 50/50 that Garcia will make it through 4 games this year as the starter. As it is, I'm pretty sure we'll see Gradkowski or another QB in there as a result of Garcia's underwhelming play at some point in the first half of the season.Re: Willie Parker vs. Ronnie Brown. It's just a matter of preference. We're not getting credit for Willie Parker's 2006 stats, so I have to figure out who I like better for the future. I have the two of them about as close in value as possible. I think Brown is more talented, and I'm not convinced Parker didn't just have a career year. Parker has the edge in offensive line and surrounding talent in addition to the support of his coaching staff. Brown is more well-rounded and I believe less of a hit-and-miss type of RB. Brown also has a head coach playing mental games with him right now, so it's not going to be popular to stand by a high dynasty ranking. I'm not too concerned about popularity, and I'm sticking with Brown's talent edge. I know about "if"s and "but"s, but if Ronnie Brown hadn't gotten that hand injury for 3 games last season, we'd be talking about a runner coming off a 1300 yard/7-8 TD/400 yd receiving season...on a team where the rest of the offense was totally and completely inept. When he played last season, he WAS the Dolphins offense. They need to quit jerking him around and starting using their offensive fulcrum like the Rams use Steven Jackson. He'll produce...Edit to add: I've confessed several times to being conflicted about Ronnie Brown's ranking. He's consistently been the most challenging player to rank since I started this. I'm going to take a deeper look at Parker vs. Brown and see if I find anything changing there.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

Keary Colbert has been named the starter for Carolina,

any thoughts of adding him to your rankings, F&L ?

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Keary Colbert has been named the starter for Carolina,any thoughts of adding him to your rankings, F&L ?

Keary Colbert: How could I leave him off the "Sean Dawkins All-Stars"? He's perfect. I don't think he has any dynasty value, nor would I waste a roster spot on him. But I guess that doesn't make him any different than half the other guys in the bottom tier. No upside.Edit to add: he's probably a better pick in re-draft leagues.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I've posted this in the Assistant Coach forum too but I wanted Fear And Loathing and the others in this thread to see this. First time caller, long time listener.First time in a keeper league but have played redrafts for about ten years. Was really short picks so traded away Travis Henry, Willie Parker (neither I'm really high on IMHO) and Lendale White and now have many picks and two wideouts (Got 1-7 and TO for FWP, 2-6 and a 2nd next year.) Rest of team was brutal.Must start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 Flex, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DL, 1 LB, 1DB. PPR and extra points awarded for long touchdowns (especially rushing. 5 bonus for 50+. 5 bonus for 70 for WR and QB.) My keepers are Chad Johnson, Terrell Owens, Willis McGahee and Cedric Benson (U25er.)So I have 1-5 and 1-7 and I really want to make the most of them. And there's a lot out there.ADP, Marshawn, B Jackson and CJ obviously. But there's also A Gates, T Jones, L Evans, A Boldin, D Driver, B Jacobs, A Green, J Lewis, J Cutler, V Young, C Taylor, L Jordan, L Coles, D Foster, D Jax, S***na, P Rivers... and well, lots of people.Plan A along has been (if possible) Antonio Gates at 5 and CJ at 7. The league doesn't seem to be high on drafting rookie WR's early but is all over rookie and starting RBs. Because you have to start 2 every week. So I think I'll be able to get CJ at 7. In fact, a lot of people think that is a massive overpay but he won't be at 3-6 and what if he turns into the next Marvin or Jerry or the next Owens, Jordan, Gretzky and Jesus combined? He's a rookie and people are double covering him in pre-season games. That's respect. I get to keep him for three years for sure and maybe forever. And Gates? TE's tend to not go early and Gonzales was only 20 points back last year in this league but he's the best. And I think the gap on everyone else will be larger this year.Plan B is going for two guys who are going to start and do well IMHO and just hope some other rookie I draft later pans out well enough later to be my under 25er next year. My choice if possible would be Lee Evans at 5 and then Brandon Jacobs at 7.Plan C could maybe be Gates and Cutler or Rivers. Or if Gates goes grab CJ for sure at 5 and then maybe Jacobs or Ahman Green? Or Deshaun Foster? Or something one of you have in mind.I'm not going to grab the kid from GB or two wideouts. WRs are very hard to trade in this league. Guy who had Boldin couldn't even get people to budge for a 4th round pick over the summer. So lemme know what you think.Guy who drafts first is grabbing ADP and also has 1-6 and plans to draft a wideout and really likes Lee Evans. He wouldn't draft 2 rookies already having Steven Jackson, Marion Barber, Jones-Drew and Fitzgerald? Or could he?Man this is long. Thoughts ponderances appreciated. Been excited for this for weeks. It's like playing for the first time all over again. But better.

Sounds like you've already got it pretty well covered. You know my feelings on Lee Evans and Calvin Johnson, so I think you're on the right path there. I can't imagine a scenario where DeShaun Foster would find his way onto my roster, but other than that I think we're on the same wavelength regarding the players you listed.

 

[Less Than Zero]

Good thread. Been following it for awhile although I didn't register at FBG until recently.

Would love to hear some further comments on a few QBs, specifically Aaron Rodgers, David Carr, and Trent Edwards. More specifically, what you think both about their long-term opportunity will be and what you think their potential is -- do you think they're going to get chances to be "the guy" (replacing Favre/Delhomme, or a struggling Losman respectively), and do they have the ability to take advantage of that?

After playing QBBC for years (it's so hard to find stud QBs that are consistent year to year in dynasty), I finally managed to trade for Drew Brees early last year before the bandwagon got rolling. All well and good, and I feel great about my team right now -- but my QB depth is still sorely lacking. If Brees were to get hurt, I'd be okay trading to get another mediocre starter, but long-term I need to develop another QB.

Right now, my options are:

- Hold pat, draft a QB in the first of next year's rookie draft, and hope that one of Carr/Rodgers/Edwards/rookie TBD actually develops before I need them

- Trade some WR or RB depth to stock up on first rounders next year, possibly grabbing two QBs from what is supposed to be a deep class

- Look to trade for a younger guy people might not be quite sold on from tier 2/3 in your rankings, or Kellen Clemens to replace Pennington -- this would probably involve my first rounder next year and an RB or WR

 

[Limp Dogg Bizkits]

Great thread F&L. I just finished my startup PPR dynasty draft. I used your list as my draft sheet. Here is my roster, let me know what you think.

QB Leinart, Grossman

RB Bush, Benson, Bell, White

WR S Smith(car) Evans, Edwards, S. Holmes, B. Jones

TE Cooley, Olsen

K Mare.

Its IDP too but wont list due to you not ranking them.

 

[Illegal Pants Downfield]

Pardon my volume, but THIS IS NOT A WHO DO I DRAFT/HOW DID I DRAFT/WHO SHOULD I DROP/WHO SHOULD I PICK UP/WHATEVER ELSE THREAD.

Take it to the Assistant Coach forum and stop soiling a perfectly good thread...

...says the guy who is unfortunately adding to the soil of the thread with this post. But it was a necessary evil. Now knock it off.

 

[Koya]

Some things that pop out at me:McNabb - he has the potential to be a #1 QB any given year. But he has the likelihood of being that for only part of the season before getting hurt. In a dynasty, too much risk to put ahead of the other guys.Garcia - How is he behind the likes of Joey Harrington? Even at his age, Garcia has a better chance to have three solid FF seasons, two good-really good ones and one great one than Harrington does for the rest of his career. I think you need to give Garcia a nod as a two year starter and then we will see with the potential to put up very very good numbers in that system (Gannon, anyone? He was 100 too)W Parker - Why is this guy so low? He has shown that he can play a full season, score a ton of TDs, get long plays, do short yardage when needed, catch the ball. What does this guy need to do to be above Ronnie "hasnt done squat" brown? I dont see how he can be that far below Gore, esp. with Gores injury concerns

From the conversation back on page 6, post #268 regarding McNabb:

I've seen people knock McNabb for his injury proclivities, but I think most of that criticism misses the point. It's on you to find a reliable back-up for your dynasty team if McNabb is your starter. If he puts up elite production while he's healthy, you have a leg up on all but 2 or 3 teams in the league. If McNabb goes down and you can plug in a Kitna last year, or Delhomme the year before, or Favre the year before that (among others), then you aren't really losing a competitive edge. Better to have an injury prone tremendous advantage for half the season (and a reliable back-up) than to have a guy who puts up production that is closer to the pack for a whole season.

McNabb's injury risk doesn't scare me off. If I had McNabb, I'd just back myself up with a solid/overlooked vet and enjoy the advantage McNabb gives me over most of the other owners in the league while he is healthy. Jeff Garcia? Are you serious with this? Gruden's system? Come on. How did the Bucs QBs do in Gruden's system last year? The year before that? So Garcia gets a pass on the embarrassing eggs he laid in SF in '03, CLE in '04 and DET in '05 simply because he had an overly ballyhooed month with the Eagles last year? He's no longer a good QB, and he's certainly not going to be a good fantasy QB in Tampa's lifeless offense. Jeff Garcia isn't Rich Gannon, and he's not throwing to Jerry Rice, Tim Brown and Jerry Porter. Look, I think Harrington is a turd too, but to feel secure that either of them have any value beyond week-to-week is foolish in my opinion. If Chris Simms wasn't so brutal (nice signing by the way, Bucs), then I'd put the odds at 50/50 that Garcia will make it through 4 games this year as the starter. As it is, I'm pretty sure we'll see Gradkowski or another QB in there as a result of Garcia's underwhelming play at some point in the first half of the season.Re: Willie Parker vs. Ronnie Brown. It's just a matter of preference. We're not getting credit for Willie Parker's 2006 stats, so I have to figure out who I like better for the future. I have the two of them about as close in value as possible. I think Brown is more talented, and I'm not convinced Parker didn't just have a career year. Parker has the edge in offensive line and surrounding talent in addition to the support of his coaching staff. Brown is more well-rounded and I believe less of a hit-and-miss type of RB. Brown also has a head coach playing mental games with him right now, so it's not going to be popular to stand by a high dynasty ranking. I'm not too concerned about popularity, and I'm sticking with Brown's talent edge. I know about "if"s and "but"s, but if Ronnie Brown hadn't gotten that hand injury for 3 games last season, we'd be talking about a runner coming off a 1300 yard/7-8 TD/400 yd receiving season...on a team where the rest of the offense was totally and completely inept. When he played last season, he WAS the Dolphins offense. They need to quit jerking him around and starting using their offensive fulcrum like the Rams use Steven Jackson. He'll produce...Edit to add: I've confessed several times to being conflicted about Ronnie Brown's ranking. He's consistently been the most challenging player to rank since I started this. I'm going to take a deeper look at Parker vs. Brown and see if I find anything changing there.

thanks for the response. I agree on McNabb and see where you are going with Brown vs. Parker, though I disagree.However I think Garcia is someone you may be missing out upon. I am not giving him a pass for the browns etc. But what exactly was he working with up there? The guy showed he still had it last year and to compare a former Pro Bowler with some VERY good FF seasons under his belt with Chris Simms and Gradkowski is imo shortsighted.He won't be a top 5 QB, but I think Garcia has a chance to really make waves... we saw how Gannon at age 100 did in that system. I wouldnt discount Garcia totally yet. He could really surprise.Some of the guys above him, like Harrington, will only surprise someone when they dont lose the game.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

thanks for the response. I agree on McNabb and see where you are going with Brown vs. Parker, though I disagree.However I think Garcia is someone you may be missing out upon. I am not giving him a pass for the browns etc. But what exactly was he working with up there? The guy showed he still had it last year and to compare a former Pro Bowler with some VERY good FF seasons under his belt with Chris Simms and Gradkowski is imo shortsighted.He won't be a top 5 QB, but I think Garcia has a chance to really make waves... we saw how Gannon at age 100 did in that system. I wouldnt discount Garcia totally yet. He could really surprise.Some of the guys above him, like Harrington, will only surprise someone when they dont lose the game.

Can you give me an explanation for your high regard of Jeff Garcia's future -- immediate as well as post-2007 -- beyond "well, Rich Gannon was old in Gruden's system and look what he did"? Again, Jeff Garcia is not Rich Gannon and the Bucs don't have the surrounding talent that the Raiders had. Can you give me something solid on Garcia? I'm willing to revisit my opinion, but you have to give me something to work with here.You say "what talent did he have around him in Cleveland or Detroit?" I'd like to know why you think he has weaponry in Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers' offense is underwhelming at best and bottom-of-the-barrel at worst. I just don't see "making waves" as a possibility for Garcia.In fact, as much as I distrust Joey Harrington's abilities, I'll wager that he lasts longer as the Falcons starting QB than Garcia does as the Bucs QB.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Good thread. Been following it for awhile although I didn't register at FBG until recently. Would love to hear some further comments on a few QBs, specifically Aaron Rodgers, David Carr, and Trent Edwards. More specifically, what you think both about their long-term opportunity will be and what you think their potential is -- do you think they're going to get chances to be "the guy" (replacing Favre/Delhomme, or a struggling Losman respectively), and do they have the ability to take advantage of that? After playing QBBC for years (it's so hard to find stud QBs that are consistent year to year in dynasty), I finally managed to trade for Drew Brees early last year before the bandwagon got rolling. All well and good, and I feel great about my team right now -- but my QB depth is still sorely lacking. If Brees were to get hurt, I'd be okay trading to get another mediocre starter, but long-term I need to develop another QB.Right now, my options are: - Hold pat, draft a QB in the first of next year's rookie draft, and hope that one of Carr/Rodgers/Edwards/rookie TBD actually develops before I need them- Trade some WR or RB depth to stock up on first rounders next year, possibly grabbing two QBs from what is supposed to be a deep class- Look to trade for a younger guy people might not be quite sold on from tier 2/3 in your rankings, or Kellen Clemens to replace Pennington -- this would probably involve my first rounder next year and an RB or WR

Thanks. You're right that it's hard to find stud QBs that are consistent year to year in dynasty. That's why I always say the top tier QBs are undervalued by tunnel vision RB lovers. Top tier QBs are much more consistently studly than RBs are.I think all of those guys you listed will get a chance to start at some point. It's just a matter of when. As much as the Packers publicly stand by Rodgers as their future, many around football have questioned their commitment to him and belief in him as a franchise QB. On the other hand, he was young coming into the league, and I think it's helped him a lot to have the luxury of sitting for a few years, learning the offense, the speed of the game, and maturing. He's been impressive this year in pre-season action. If Favre retires after this season (never a sure thing), then I do think Rodgers will get a shot to take over. Is he good enough to take advantage of that opportunity? I don't know. I've never gotten a good read on his talent. It wouldn't surprise me if he goes one and done and the Packers have to bring in either veteran competition or an outright replacment.Delhomme is on a shorter leash this year with Carr around, and if he plays like he did last year I don't there's any question Carr will get a shot. I'll confess that I thought Carr would be an all-pro QB when he came into the league, and he has had some bright moments such as the first half of his 3rd season when he was very good. However, he's regressed so much the last couple of years to the point where I'd be surprised if he was able to take the job and run with it. He had that #1 overall kind of talent at one point, and he has piqued some interest at times in the past, so you can't rule out a Jake Plummer/Jim Plunkett resurgence in the right situation. I'd bet against it, but it never hurts to take chances as long as the price is low in both cost and roster space.Trent Edwards is my favorite QB of the three you listed, but he's also the least likely to get a shot by the beginning of next season. EBF has pointed out just how atrocious both his O-Line and WRs were at Stanford and that he was once a top-flight QB recruit coming out of high school. If he had a better supporting cast in college, he may well have been a 1st round draft pick. I'm not sold on Losman's future as a franchise QB, and Edwards has been very impressive as a rookie in pre-season action. I think he'll get a shot at some point in the 2008 season, but I know that puts me in the minority. I think if he gets his shot next season, he'll stay there for awhile.

 

[shenski31]

Hey F&L,

I'm curious, what do you think of Leftwich's dynasty value after he has been cut?

 

[Homer]

Hey F&L,I'm curious, what do you think of Leftwich's dynasty value after he has been cut?

Shocking that he was ahead of Romo BEFORE he was cut, NOW it's just a huge HUH???? IMO, Romo WAY too low.

 

[Homer]

Just more in comparing Romo, compared to Cutler and Smith, they have shown next to NOTHING to be listed above Romo right now. The only thing they have in their favor is draft status, and Cutler possibly having a more stable offense/receiving corps for the long term.

Romo's better than Eli Manning right now, hard for anybody to argue that, and why would anyone see that changing in the near future?

Kitna > Romo is a joke. MAYBE he outpoints him this year, but if Kitna gets sacked 60 times again this year, he's not going to finish it upright (especially at his age), and if he doesn't, why would he be assumed to be in Detroit's long term plans (again, age)? And if Martz leaves (always a possibility) for ANY reason, Detroit's QB is just another guy no matter WHO he is. F&L, you're breaking the #1 rule with your Kitna ranking: Rank based on TALENT, not situation.

 

[stevegamer]

Keary Colbert: How could I leave him off the "Sean Dawkins All-Stars"? He's perfect. I don't think he has any dynasty value, nor would I waste a roster spot on him. But I guess that doesn't make him any different than half the other guys in the bottom tier. No upside.

When I took over my dynasty team going into 2002, Sean Dawkins was on the roster. Let's just say that when I saw that, I knew the team needed a lot of fixing.

 

[Whiplash Inc.]

Zach Miller should at least be in tier 2.

Very good job overall though.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Hey F&L,I'm curious, what do you think of Leftwich's dynasty value after he has been cut?

I was in the process of moving all weekend, so internet access is still not up and running at home. I'll stop at the library tonight to adjust rankings and try to reply to the Leftwich/Romo/Zach Miller questions. The Leftwich question in particular is begging to be answered.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Hey F&L,

I'm curious, what do you think of Leftwich's dynasty value after he has been cut?

Rotoworld's Aaron Gleeman had a pretty good take on Leftwich in today's Daily Dose:

Whether Leftwich winds up with the Ravens or somewhere else, the chances of him having a big fantasy impact this season are slim. He'd be behind Steve McNair in Baltimore and with Atlanta apparently not interested there are few remaining spots (Minnesota, Kansas City, Oakland) where he'd have a shot at becoming an immediate starter. At 27 years old Leftwich likely has quite a few starts left in his future, but his value for this season is rapidly disappearing.

Any regular around this thread knows that I'm a blatant Leftwich apologist. Realizing that I'm risking a sizable credibility gap, I still believe Leftwich is a franchise QB and the Jags just made a horrendous mistake. Yes, his value does drop because any 2007 value is doubtful at this point. If the possibility of using him this year is all but out the window, he's taking up roster space for a year. Additionally, he's just as likely to end up in another fantasy quagmire as he is to land in an offense that will provide fantasy manna from heaven. Until we know what the situation will be in his new home, it's tough to gauge his future value.All of that said, I have believed for quite some time that a move out of Jacksonville would definitely benefit Leftwich's long term value. As I've stated before, Jimmy Smith is the only above average receiver he's had at his disposal during his four years in the league. Basically, in a grind it out offense ill-suited to his strengths, his receiving weapons have been nothing short of dreadful. The playcalling has been lousy, and his coaches have been severely lacking in offensive creativity. I still believe that with a few legit weapons in a wide open offense more suited to his strengths, Byron Leftwich will put up big numbers.

Bottom line: I like his value beyond this season, but he just lost his starting job. Better to start over somewhere new than sit the bench, but his value definitely takes a severe blow.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Just more in comparing Romo, compared to Cutler and Smith, they have shown next to NOTHING to be listed above Romo right now. The only thing they have in their favor is draft status, and Cutler possibly having a more stable offense/receiving corps for the long term.

Romo's better than Eli Manning right now, hard for anybody to argue that, and why would anyone see that changing in the near future?

Kitna > Romo is a joke. MAYBE he outpoints him this year, but if Kitna gets sacked 60 times again this year, he's not going to finish it upright (especially at his age), and if he doesn't, why would he be assumed to be in Detroit's long term plans (again, age)? And if Martz leaves (always a possibility) for ANY reason, Detroit's QB is just another guy no matter WHO he is. F&L, you're breaking the #1 rule with your Kitna ranking: Rank based on TALENT, not situation.

Ms. Underwood, is that you?So you obviously believe his first 6 games last season were more representative of the real Tony Romo than the last 5 games? I wish I could say I believe the same, but I don't.

I thought Andy Dufresne nailed it in his comments yesterday in this thread:

"He started off the season like the golfer that goes out and lights it up at the beginning of the round - only to realize that he's not that good of a golfer and regresses to his true talent level."

That's pretty much how I've felt about him all along. I believed that Parcells had a very good point when he was trying to tell everyone that the annointing oils were out way too soon. Romo played poorly down the stretch and now defensive coaches have had a full offseason to work on his weaknesses like an evil wrestler. Will he play more like the mid-season Tony Romo or the late-season Tony Romo? You obviously believe the former while I think it's more likely to be the latter or possibly somewhere in between. I believe that Tony Romo has already had the best 5 game stretch that he will have in his whole career.

To address your other points:

- Where do you draw the line on showing something vs. talent and predicted future production? Romo showed a lot early on, but he also showed reason for concern later. Alex Smith, who is light years younger than Romo, also started out the season very impressively only to fade down the stretch. I think he has a brighter future than Romo. Cutler also showed talent and promise, and I believe he will have a better early and full career than Romo. You don't get credit this year for those games last year when Romo showed something. Who will show more this year? Next year? The year after? We obviously have come to different conclusions on those questions.

- Romo may be better than Eli, but how can you know for sure? Eli has played better at times and Romo has played better at times. I haven't figured out yet which one is the real Eli or the real Romo. Until I do, I'm giving a slight edge to the player whom I believe is the superior talent.

- Who's #1 rule is "Rank based on TALENT, not situation?" It's not mine. My number one rule is always try to win now while balancing the future. Win. That's the goal. My number two rule is: rank based on talent level, situation, and expected production in a best case scenario and let others rank based on last year's numbers. I think Kitna has a chance this year to help your team win it all. I think Kitna is not only a bonafide starting QB in 12-team leagues, he's also a weekly advantage. What happens beyond this year? I don't know, but I don't expect him next year to have to look over his shoulder at Orlovsky, Stanton & O'Sullivan. I think Stanton is more than a year away. Maybe they will bring in someone better, but you could say that about a lot of starting QBs, and I'm willing to risk that scenario to get his production this year.

In contrast to Kitna, I do not want to count on Romo to start for me this year, and I don't see him as giving me an advantage over other owners. Additionally, I don't know if I see Romo as a fantasy starter beyond 2007. Should I have long term faith in a QB when the Cowboys themselves don't have enough faith in him to sign him to a long term contract? Like the Cowboys, I need to see more proof before I put my future in his hands.

In the interest of full disclosure, I rarely will give the edge to a mediocre veteran over a promising young player if all else is equal. In this case I don't see Romo as all that promising, and I don't think all else is equal. I've said it before that as a fantasy owner I'd follow Martz into hell. Add Calvin Johnson to last year's 4000+ yard passing attack, and I think you have a veteran QB of mediocre ability who will put up great fantasy numbers for the next couple of seasons as long as he's still starting. You don't have to be a good NFL player to put up great fantasy numbers. Kitna can do it. Can Romo?

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Zach Miller should at least be in tier 2.Very good job overall though.

Thanks. Why should Zach Miller be at least in tier 2? Specifically?

 

[valhallan]

I've been wondering for a while now if you're ever going to move Tony Scheffler out of your 2nd tier. Has none of the Daniel Graham talk tempered your expectations?

 

[Homer]

Just more in comparing Romo, compared to Cutler and Smith, they have shown next to NOTHING to be listed above Romo right now. The only thing they have in their favor is draft status, and Cutler possibly having a more stable offense/receiving corps for the long term.

Romo's better than Eli Manning right now, hard for anybody to argue that, and why would anyone see that changing in the near future?

Kitna > Romo is a joke. MAYBE he outpoints him this year, but if Kitna gets sacked 60 times again this year, he's not going to finish it upright (especially at his age), and if he doesn't, why would he be assumed to be in Detroit's long term plans (again, age)? And if Martz leaves (always a possibility) for ANY reason, Detroit's QB is just another guy no matter WHO he is. F&L, you're breaking the #1 rule with your Kitna ranking: Rank based on TALENT, not situation.

Ms. Underwood, is that you?So you obviously believe his first 6 games last season were more representative of the real Tony Romo than the last 5 games? I wish I could say I believe the same, but I don't.

I thought Andy Dufresne nailed it in his comments yesterday in this thread:

"He started off the season like the golfer that goes out and lights it up at the beginning of the round - only to realize that he's not that good of a golfer and regresses to his true talent level."

That's pretty much how I've felt about him all along. I believed that Parcells had a very good point when he was trying to tell everyone that the annointing oils were out way too soon. Romo played poorly down the stretch and now defensive coaches have had a full offseason to work on his weaknesses like an evil wrestler. Will he play more like the mid-season Tony Romo or the late-season Tony Romo? You obviously believe the former while I think it's more likely to be the latter or possibly somewhere in between. I believe that Tony Romo has already had the best 5 game stretch that he will have in his whole career.

To address your other points:

- Where do you draw the line on showing something vs. talent and predicted future production? Romo showed a lot early on, but he also showed reason for concern later. Alex Smith, who is light years younger than Romo, also started out the season very impressively only to fade down the stretch. I think he has a brighter future than Romo. Cutler also showed talent and promise, and I believe he will have a better early and full career than Romo. You don't get credit this year for those games last year when Romo showed something. Who will show more this year? Next year? The year after? We obviously have come to different conclusions on those questions.

- Romo may be better than Eli, but how can you know for sure? Eli has played better at times and Romo has played better at times. I haven't figured out yet which one is the real Eli or the real Romo. Until I do, I'm giving a slight edge to the player whom I believe is the superior talent.

- Who's #1 rule is "Rank based on TALENT, not situation?" It's not mine. My number one rule is always try to win now while balancing the future. Win. That's the goal. My number two rule is: rank based on talent level, situation, and expected production in a best case scenario and let others rank based on last year's numbers. I think Kitna has a chance this year to help your team win it all. I think Kitna is not only a bonafide starting QB in 12-team leagues, he's also a weekly advantage. What happens beyond this year? I don't know, but I don't expect him next year to have to look over his shoulder at Orlovsky, Stanton & O'Sullivan. I think Stanton is more than a year away. Maybe they will bring in someone better, but you could say that about a lot of starting QBs, and I'm willing to risk that scenario to get his production this year.

In contrast to Kitna, I do not want to count on Romo to start for me this year, and I don't see him as giving me an advantage over other owners. Additionally, I don't know if I see Romo as a fantasy starter beyond 2007. Should I have long term faith in a QB when the Cowboys themselves don't have enough faith in him to sign him to a long term contract? Like the Cowboys, I need to see more proof before I put my future in his hands.

In the interest of full disclosure, I rarely will give the edge to a mediocre veteran over a promising young player if all else is equal. In this case I don't see Romo as all that promising, and I don't think all else is equal. I've said it before that as a fantasy owner I'd follow Martz into hell. Add Calvin Johnson to last year's 4000+ yard passing attack, and I think you have a veteran QB of mediocre ability who will put up great fantasy numbers for the next couple of seasons as long as he's still starting. You don't have to be a good NFL player to put up great fantasy numbers. Kitna can do it. Can Romo?

Re: Romo, his NFL debut was one of the most impressive I've ever seen, and on a team where Bledsoe was playing REALLY bad. As far as his "late season fade", could it possibly be the case of a first year QB having a few clunkers? Putting up a QB rating of 100+ 1/2 the time and 89+ 3/4 of the time will certainly get ANY QB (much less a 1st year starter) a long term deal eventually.Comparing him to Alex Smith, at what point does youth have to turn into production before you throw your hands up and admit a horrible mistake? David Carr got a WHOLE LOT of slack for years in Houston based on draft status and alleged talent and some sort of HOPE that the HORRID offense was miraculously going to improve when certainly he was a contributing factor to its "putridity". Were Alex Smith a lock to play 16 games against last year's NFC West level defenses, I'd certainly be optimistic about his future. But he's got a LONG way to go to match Romo's (deserved) Pro Bowl permormance as a FIRST YEAR STARTER. What do you project for Smith this year? Exactly when is he going to reach a 3500 yard 25+ TD level? I doubt anybody thinks it will be this year. Romo should easily hit those marks this year, and, if so, why would those expectations take a down turn after that?

Kitna's 35 and already banged up in the preseason and was sacked an abominable amount last year. Every Martz QB ends up getting hit a LOT. When you mix that with Kitna's age, it's a nasty blend. IF he holds up THIS YEAR, he could indeed put up stats as good as LAST YEAR. There's not much upside on top of 4K yards, is there? Yet Kitna wasn't close to an elite QB last year due to the INT's and low TD rate. Oh and another strike against long term value, if he IS successful this year and Martz leaves (he's clearly the show in Detroit, now, isn't he?), Kitna's worth a used ball bag at 36 in some average offense. I don't see much of ANY scenario where Kitna is still an NFL starting QB in September 2009, do you?

Re: talent vs. situation, your rankings usually agree with that principle -- your umpteenth apology for Leftwich is shining example #1. But it seems in your QB rankings you are a slave to draft status instead of performance. I'm just thinking off the top of my head here, but can you name recent examples of the "QB of the future" sucking for several years and then suddenly turning it on and becoming a STUD? Seems to me that the truly excellent QB's have all been pretty damned good from at least their second season on.

F & L, I truly enjoy your rankings and you obviously put a lot of thought into them. Thanks for sharing your thoughts here with all of us.

 

[jburns]

didn't get a chance to go over the whole thread but one thing that jumped out at me during the initial rankings is brian westbrooks age.

28? he's older than rudi, clinton portis, etc...

wow i thought he was much younger.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Just more in comparing Romo, compared to Cutler and Smith, they have shown next to NOTHING to be listed above Romo right now. The only thing they have in their favor is draft status, and Cutler possibly having a more stable offense/receiving corps for the long term.

Romo's better than Eli Manning right now, hard for anybody to argue that, and why would anyone see that changing in the near future?

Kitna > Romo is a joke. MAYBE he outpoints him this year, but if Kitna gets sacked 60 times again this year, he's not going to finish it upright (especially at his age), and if he doesn't, why would he be assumed to be in Detroit's long term plans (again, age)? And if Martz leaves (always a possibility) for ANY reason, Detroit's QB is just another guy no matter WHO he is. F&L, you're breaking the #1 rule with your Kitna ranking: Rank based on TALENT, not situation.

Ms. Underwood, is that you?So you obviously believe his first 6 games last season were more representative of the real Tony Romo than the last 5 games? I wish I could say I believe the same, but I don't.

I thought Andy Dufresne nailed it in his comments yesterday in this thread:

"He started off the season like the golfer that goes out and lights it up at the beginning of the round - only to realize that he's not that good of a golfer and regresses to his true talent level."

That's pretty much how I've felt about him all along. I believed that Parcells had a very good point when he was trying to tell everyone that the annointing oils were out way too soon. Romo played poorly down the stretch and now defensive coaches have had a full offseason to work on his weaknesses like an evil wrestler. Will he play more like the mid-season Tony Romo or the late-season Tony Romo? You obviously believe the former while I think it's more likely to be the latter or possibly somewhere in between. I believe that Tony Romo has already had the best 5 game stretch that he will have in his whole career.

To address your other points:

- Where do you draw the line on showing something vs. talent and predicted future production? Romo showed a lot early on, but he also showed reason for concern later. Alex Smith, who is light years younger than Romo, also started out the season very impressively only to fade down the stretch. I think he has a brighter future than Romo. Cutler also showed talent and promise, and I believe he will have a better early and full career than Romo. You don't get credit this year for those games last year when Romo showed something. Who will show more this year? Next year? The year after? We obviously have come to different conclusions on those questions.

- Romo may be better than Eli, but how can you know for sure? Eli has played better at times and Romo has played better at times. I haven't figured out yet which one is the real Eli or the real Romo. Until I do, I'm giving a slight edge to the player whom I believe is the superior talent.

- Who's #1 rule is "Rank based on TALENT, not situation?" It's not mine. My number one rule is always try to win now while balancing the future. Win. That's the goal. My number two rule is: rank based on talent level, situation, and expected production in a best case scenario and let others rank based on last year's numbers. I think Kitna has a chance this year to help your team win it all. I think Kitna is not only a bonafide starting QB in 12-team leagues, he's also a weekly advantage. What happens beyond this year? I don't know, but I don't expect him next year to have to look over his shoulder at Orlovsky, Stanton & O'Sullivan. I think Stanton is more than a year away. Maybe they will bring in someone better, but you could say that about a lot of starting QBs, and I'm willing to risk that scenario to get his production this year.

In contrast to Kitna, I do not want to count on Romo to start for me this year, and I don't see him as giving me an advantage over other owners. Additionally, I don't know if I see Romo as a fantasy starter beyond 2007. Should I have long term faith in a QB when the Cowboys themselves don't have enough faith in him to sign him to a long term contract? Like the Cowboys, I need to see more proof before I put my future in his hands.

In the interest of full disclosure, I rarely will give the edge to a mediocre veteran over a promising young player if all else is equal. In this case I don't see Romo as all that promising, and I don't think all else is equal. I've said it before that as a fantasy owner I'd follow Martz into hell. Add Calvin Johnson to last year's 4000+ yard passing attack, and I think you have a veteran QB of mediocre ability who will put up great fantasy numbers for the next couple of seasons as long as he's still starting. You don't have to be a good NFL player to put up great fantasy numbers. Kitna can do it. Can Romo?

Re: Romo, his NFL debut was one of the most impressive I've ever seen, and on a team where Bledsoe was playing REALLY bad. As far as his "late season fade", could it possibly be the case of a first year QB having a few clunkers? Putting up a QB rating of 100+ 1/2 the time and 89+ 3/4 of the time will certainly get ANY QB (much less a 1st year starter) a long term deal eventually.Comparing him to Alex Smith, at what point does youth have to turn into production before you throw your hands up and admit a horrible mistake? David Carr got a WHOLE LOT of slack for years in Houston based on draft status and alleged talent and some sort of HOPE that the HORRID offense was miraculously going to improve when certainly he was a contributing factor to its "putridity". Were Alex Smith a lock to play 16 games against last year's NFC West level defenses, I'd certainly be optimistic about his future. But he's got a LONG way to go to match Romo's (deserved) Pro Bowl permormance as a FIRST YEAR STARTER. What do you project for Smith this year? Exactly when is he going to reach a 3500 yard 25+ TD level? I doubt anybody thinks it will be this year. Romo should easily hit those marks this year, and, if so, why would those expectations take a down turn after that?

Kitna's 35 and already banged up in the preseason and was sacked an abominable amount last year. Every Martz QB ends up getting hit a LOT. When you mix that with Kitna's age, it's a nasty blend. IF he holds up THIS YEAR, he could indeed put up stats as good as LAST YEAR. There's not much upside on top of 4K yards, is there? Yet Kitna wasn't close to an elite QB last year due to the INT's and low TD rate. Oh and another strike against long term value, if he IS successful this year and Martz leaves (he's clearly the show in Detroit, now, isn't he?), Kitna's worth a used ball bag at 36 in some average offense. I don't see much of ANY scenario where Kitna is still an NFL starting QB in September 2009, do you?

Re: talent vs. situation, your rankings usually agree with that principle -- your umpteenth apology for Leftwich is shining example #1. But it seems in your QB rankings you are a slave to draft status instead of performance. I'm just thinking off the top of my head here, but can you name recent examples of the "QB of the future" sucking for several years and then suddenly turning it on and becoming a STUD?

Brees quickly comes to mind.

 

[-OZ-]

I'm just thinking off the top of my head here, but can you name recent examples of the "QB of the future" sucking for several years and then suddenly turning it on and becoming a STUD?

Brees quickly comes to mind.

This guy certainly

First 4 years worse than Lefty

Never a STUD, but decent

There are a few, but not many

 

[EBF]

I take back everything I ever said about Alex Smith. He's status.

I was right about Santonio Holmes though.