SSOG: I know this was mentioned as a possible evolution of your site awhile back, but I would be very interested in seeing where you (or others for that matter) slot in draft picks among your rankings (and how that might change as the season goes on and projections of teams' draft positions get more certain).
It's in the works. Rather than just arbitrarily assigning a score, I'm trying to go through historical data to get some sort of value baselines. We're still probably several weeks away, and it might get pushed back to the offseason if it comes to that (although I'd really like to get it done by midseason if possible because that's the ideal time to start targeting draft picks, imo). The ultimate goal is once we have our cross-positional values up and running to be able to create a "draft pick" position, too, and fit that into the cross-positional values. In the meantime, priority #1 is my real job, priority #2 is the rankings, and priority #3 is whatever else I can fit in between priorities #1 and #2. Oh, and my wife likes it when I spend time with her from time to time, too.
Schaub's an interesting guy IMO. I haven't seen every game he's played but when I have seen him I've liked what I've seen. However, I agree that he's in tier 3. I don't have Orton quite that high on pure talent but he's done pretty well. The disagreement I have with you here, if we're talking about pure talent is Bradford and to a lesser degree Freeman. On a pure talent level, Bradford is every bit as talented as Rivers or Ben. Freeman pretty close to McNabb. Both clearly need more seasoning to be ranked that high as far as true value, but you're talking pure talent. I might also bump Flacco up a tier but that's not a strong disagreement.
I think what you're calling "talent" is what I would call "potential". I consider things like the ability to read and accurately diagnose defenses, make pre-snap reads, go through progressions, etc. all part of "talent". Right now, Bradford can't do that. In a few years, absolutely, I'll be surprised if he hasn't developed those skills in spades (although Ryan and Flacco haven't developed as much as I expected, so I'm only cautiously optimistic instead of full-on expectant). In terms of talent today, though? Nah, Bradford's average at the very best. Average is way, way ahead of the curve for a rookie, but it doesn't change the fact that Bradford's not as good of a QB as the guys in the tiers ahead of him at this point. Hell, he's the worst QB I listed in tier 4, to boot.Likewise, that's part of the reason why I have Orton so high. I've been really impressed by his ability to always make the right decision with the football on any given play. His ability to find the open man at this point is behind only Brady, Brees, and Manning. It might be an illusion or a mirage, but it's damn impressive nevertheless.
ETA Looking over SSOG's WR rankings, it looks like he has come around on Nicks, although he does seem to be too high on 85. He has Chad 21 points ahead of Mike Williams. Thats a huge gap on the 1-100 scale. I dont know about anyone else, but i wouldnt even consider trading Mike Williams for Ocho.
Another ranking i dont agree with is Hester ahead of Kenny Britt. I know Britt is a bit of a head case, but he is leaps and bounds more talented than Hester(at WR), not to mention 6 years younger.
Value scores aren't really designed to compare guys two tiers away. They're mostly meant to compare guys within a tier to each other, and to establish how large the gap between the tiers are. It's a limited tool, but it's what I have to work with at the moment. We're working on a much more robust, comparable scoring system that will not only give proper value comparisons within the position (e.g. you'll be able to add value scores and say something like "WR4 = WR8 + WR16"), but will be comparable across positions.
As for Hester and Britt... it's a 2-point difference, so they're close. And Britt is obviously trending upwards. At the moment, though, Britt is still the guy who couldn't take the job from Nate Washington in the preseason, and Hester is still the guy that opposing defenses think is talented enough to warrant their top coverages.