And while we're at it, Jeremy Shockey's level of play right now is >>> than Vernon Davis', plus he does it EVERY year. Exactly how soon is Vernon Davis going to be able to even hold Shockey's JOCK as a fantasy starter? SSOG may be comfortable having a guy like Desmond Clark pinch-hitting for Davis' currently WORTHLESS performance, but I think most teams aim higher for a starting TE?
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Dynasty Rankings (8 Viewers)
- Thread starter Fear & Loathing
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Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Exactly.Not to mention "far more productive right now" is hyperbolic. Heath Miller is averaging 39.6 yards per game with a tremendous QB in a very good offense while Vernon Davis is averaging 37.6 yards per game in the worst offense in the league.
Do you all play in leagues that don't count TD's?And Miller's yardage figure up 15 yards a game from last year.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
You've keep insisting that Vernon Davis is worthless, but I think the stats tell a different story. Even in a terrible offense with rotten QB play, here are his numbers since he returned from injury:4 for 226 for 717 for 771 for 44 for 506 for 451 for 195 for 42I just don't think that's anywhere close to worthless, and I'm very mindful of the offense in which he's currently mired.For comparison's sake, here are Heath Miller's numbers over that same time period:5 for 502 for 422 for 175 for 712 for 360 for 04 for 304 for 28Who's more productive since Week 7?Re: Shockey. I like him a lot. I just worry about how beat up he is all of the time, and Eli's schizophrenic play wreaks havoc with Shockey's numbers. With a better QB, I think Shockey could see a nice spike in production. By the way, here are Shockey's numbers over the same time period (including his obvious outlier game)5 for 393 for 2612 for 1295 for 414 for 442 for 251 for 4I fail to see how you find Davis worthless while the other two are so valuable.
EBF
Footballguy
That's debatable. Randy's average season from 1998-2003 was 1,395 receiving yards and 13 TDs. That's not a significant difference from what Fitz has been doing when healthy. He had 1,400 yards and 10 TDs in 2005 and will probably sniff those numbers again this year. Randy can be expected to score a few more TDs than Fitz each season, but their yardage should be similar. You keep mentioning Fitz's situation as if he's stuck on the Ravens or the Dolphins. Arizona doesn't score that many points, but they throw the ball enough to keep him productive. He's among the league leaders in targets per game. Also, there's no way of knowing where he'll be in two years. I think he's a free agent after the 2008 season.
It's pretty common for WRs to play well into their low 30s, but Joey Galloway is the only top 20 WR in my PPR league over the age of 35. Engram is 34. TO and Mason are 33. Driver is 32. Only one of those guys is having a top 10 season. Meanwhile former All-Pro caliber receivers like Isaac Bruce (35), Joe Horn (35), Eric Moulds (34), Muhsin Muhammad (34), and Amani Toomer (33) are basically useless for FF teams. None of those guys were ever as good as Moss, but they were all solid FF WRs a few years ago. Now they're mediocre at best. If Moss follows the typical trajectory then he will probably start to suffer a decline within 3-5 years. I won't dispute that he has more upside than Fitzgerald in the short-term, but you can make a pretty strong argument that 8-10 years of top 5 production are more valuable in a dynasty league than 3-4 years of top 2 production. Fitz isn't guaranteed to stay healthy or productive, but there's no disputing that he has the potential to play several seasons after Moss is worthless.
Who's to say he isn't playing under it?Marvin Harrison didn't have his best season until he had been in the league for 6-7 years. Torry Holt didn't have his best season until year 5. Owens didn't peak until years 5-6. Rice had his highest yardage total in year 10. It's entirely possible that we haven't seen the best of Larry Fitzgerald.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
So his 2 TDs in 11 games are worthless, but Shockey's 3 TDs in 13 games are awesome? We're talking about dynasty leagues. If Davis is keeping up with both Miller and Shockey in yardage while he's stuck in a lifeless offense, that actually speaks to his potential. I like Davis' talent in the redzone, and I think he'll score TDs just fine going forward. I like Shockey and Miller too. I don't have any of the players on my roster. If I had Davis, there are scenarios where I'd give him up for Shockey, but I can't see dealing his potential for Miller.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I'm guessing you're not watching 49ers games regularly? I don't watch them regularly either, but when I have seen Davis play it's been pretty obvious that he has the talent to be a high TD scorer in the future.When a team is averaging 13 points a game, everybody is going to see low TD totals. Look at how many people wanted to bury Frank Gore in dynasty leagues this year. They're not going to be stuck at 13 points a game every year, so Davis and Gore will both see a nice uptick in production.
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The Man Who Met Andy Griffith
Footballguy
Vernon Davis is a tricky case.
On the one hand, SF does appear to be a remarkably bad passing offense. Alex Smith is (IMO) a bust. Dilfer is not the QB he once was, as sad as that is. While it's sometimes hard to say whether a struggling passing offense is due to the QB's or the receivers (see: Detroit Lions circa Harrington/Rogers), it is worth noting that Darrell Jackson went from a ~1100 yard receiver with the Seahawks to a ~500 yard receiver with the 49'ers.
On the other hand, there is no denying his lack of production. Plenty of TE's have managed to produce on mediocre passing offenses--Crumpler, Heap are recent examples. Even if he's not as bad as his current stats would imply, it appears that he is not the transcendent talent that many of us were hoping for. Besides, there is no guarantee that his situation will dramatically improve in the foreseeable future. Chris Chambers was a "top 10 talent held back by pitiful QB's" for many years.
On the whole, I still like Davis' chances to make it as a stud TE, and his price has gone way down from a year ago, when he was frequently considered a top 3 dynasty TE.
There a few TE's which strike me as too high in the rankings.
Todd Heap (TE6), who not only misses games all the time, but has burned owners with GTD's in the past. I would bump him down to the bottom of tier 2, and I might take guys like Miller / Olsen over him.
Dallas Clark (TE9), largely because his value is tied to his team, which might not keep him. From what I read, it sounds like Indy really values him, but they do have a lot of mouths to feed (including Bob Sanders, who is also in a contract year). I would bump him down to tier 3 as well.
Ben Watson (TE10), top of tier 3. I've followed Watson over the years because I acquired him in most dynasty leagues when he entered the league, and it seems clear to me that he is never going to develop into a great pass-catching TE. He is an amazing athlete and a very smart guy, and I expect the Pats to keep him around, but he doesn't have the hands to be a focal point of any offense. I'd take Miller, Olsen and Scheffler over him.
On the one hand, SF does appear to be a remarkably bad passing offense. Alex Smith is (IMO) a bust. Dilfer is not the QB he once was, as sad as that is. While it's sometimes hard to say whether a struggling passing offense is due to the QB's or the receivers (see: Detroit Lions circa Harrington/Rogers), it is worth noting that Darrell Jackson went from a ~1100 yard receiver with the Seahawks to a ~500 yard receiver with the 49'ers.
On the other hand, there is no denying his lack of production. Plenty of TE's have managed to produce on mediocre passing offenses--Crumpler, Heap are recent examples. Even if he's not as bad as his current stats would imply, it appears that he is not the transcendent talent that many of us were hoping for. Besides, there is no guarantee that his situation will dramatically improve in the foreseeable future. Chris Chambers was a "top 10 talent held back by pitiful QB's" for many years.
On the whole, I still like Davis' chances to make it as a stud TE, and his price has gone way down from a year ago, when he was frequently considered a top 3 dynasty TE.
There a few TE's which strike me as too high in the rankings.
Todd Heap (TE6), who not only misses games all the time, but has burned owners with GTD's in the past. I would bump him down to the bottom of tier 2, and I might take guys like Miller / Olsen over him.
Dallas Clark (TE9), largely because his value is tied to his team, which might not keep him. From what I read, it sounds like Indy really values him, but they do have a lot of mouths to feed (including Bob Sanders, who is also in a contract year). I would bump him down to tier 3 as well.
Ben Watson (TE10), top of tier 3. I've followed Watson over the years because I acquired him in most dynasty leagues when he entered the league, and it seems clear to me that he is never going to develop into a great pass-catching TE. He is an amazing athlete and a very smart guy, and I expect the Pats to keep him around, but he doesn't have the hands to be a focal point of any offense. I'd take Miller, Olsen and Scheffler over him.
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PranksterJD
Footballguy
I've got a question for you guys on this one...Explain to me exactly how the Favre >>> ( insert potentially great QB here, Rivers, Leinart, whatever ) doesn't apply to Miller > Davis? I'm not trying to call Miller as Favre, nor Davis as Rivers, so don't get hung up on the names used, but just think of it in terms of Miller's production is better than Davis's right now, to the effect of almost double his season score in my league. San Francisco is a ways away from becoming a potent offense, so its feasible that just because of situation Miller will outscore Davis for the next year or two. The argument was that Favre is a solid dynasty player because he helps **now** as well as later. That seems more like Miller, doesn't it? For SSOG, do I think Davis could be a 1-3 TE? Certainly. Do I think he gets there next year? Maybe, but I don't like the odds. If he were a Steeler would he be putting up better numbers than Miller? Of course, but we've said here that situation is extremely important for TEs, and the situation is that Miller is in PITT and Davis is in SF.Just looking for thoughts on this and playing the devil's advocate angle. In most circumstances I'd deal Miller for Davis without much thought.
The Man Who Met Andy Griffith
Footballguy
Favre is a stud right now. He can help you win a title, and that is what it's all about. Heath Miller is more productive than V Davis right now, but he is not a stud and he isn't going to help you win a title unless he has a fluky stretch over the next few weeks (which could just as easily happen to V Davis).
PranksterJD
Footballguy
1) I don't agree with this. "Situation" again.2) If you're shooting for a 2007 championship Miller can help you **more** than Davis can.
Again, I'm not trying to get caught up in Favre vs. Miller. I'm just wondering why the reasoning of "Solid producer immediately" doesn't apply to TEs, at least not in this case. No truly "unproven" talent exists in the top tiers of the QB rankings. Cutler was only recently bumped. The highest you see in RBs is Reggie Bush, as far as talent outweighing production in the ranks, and after that you have to slip all the way down to Michael Turner or Maroney. Let me say that I'm on board with this philosophy. The guys that have produced should be at the top. Davis, in my mind, doesn't fit this billing. Sure, he looks pretty damn good when he plays ( I'll leave the games played issue out of this discussion ), but so have the Brandon Marshall types, and those guys are "Tier Three" players.
Maybe you think Davis is the "Reggie Bush" of the TE world and that's the answer I'm looking for. I know he's got talent, but I didn't think it was THAT type of talent.
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This is the one thread I've loved since inception, but I'm growing concerned with how people are endlessly debating marginal dynasty talents (John Beck and Heath Miller) for pages on end. Make your case, let F&L respond and then move on. After all, these are his rankings. Don't make him state his case, restate his case and then restate it again to hammer it into the ground. I can't imagine F&L particularly enjoys doing that and I'm starting to sense some 
in his replies.
Don't get me wrong, this post wouldn't be the success it is without everyone's contributions. I'm sure F&L loves all the passion involved and it seems that he takes everyones opinions into consideration, but I don't think there's any advantage to page long debates about players like John Beck as has been the norm of late.
in his replies.Don't get me wrong, this post wouldn't be the success it is without everyone's contributions. I'm sure F&L loves all the passion involved and it seems that he takes everyones opinions into consideration, but I don't think there's any advantage to page long debates about players like John Beck as has been the norm of late.
hahaThis is the one thread I've loved since inception, but I'm growing concerned with how people are endlessly debating marginal dynasty talents (John Beck and Heath Miller) for pages on end. Make your case, let F&L respond and then move on. After all, these are his rankings. Don't make him state his case, restate his case and then restate it again to hammer it into the ground. I can't imagine F&L particularly enjoys doing that and I'm starting to sense somein his replies.
Don't get me wrong, this post wouldn't be the success it is without everyone's contributions. I'm sure F&L loves all the passion involved and it seems that he takes everyones opinions into consideration, but I don't think there's any advantage to page long debates about players like John Beck as has been the norm of late.
I'd much much rather debate the Beck and Health Millers of the world that have 20+ pages of debate on whether Addai is the 3rd, 4th, or 5th best dynasty RB or Romo vs Ben.This is the one thread I've loved since inception, but I'm growing concerned with how people are endlessly debating marginal dynasty talents (John Beck and Heath Miller) for pages on end. Make your case, let F&L respond and then move on. After all, these are his rankings. Don't make him state his case, restate his case and then restate it again to hammer it into the ground. I can't imagine F&L particularly enjoys doing that and I'm starting to sense some
Don't get me wrong, this post wouldn't be the success it is without everyone's contributions. I'm sure F&L loves all the passion involved and it seems that he takes everyones opinions into consideration, but I don't think there's any advantage to page long debates about players like John Beck as has been the norm of late.
I'm not saying that any and all players shouldn't be debated nor questions asked to F&L about his rankings. Nor am I looking to get into a pissing match about the direction this thread is headed. I suppose if F&L didn't like it, then he'd let everyone know. But it just seems that people aren't asking insightful questions to F&L any longer, but rather trying to ram their thoughts and beliefs down his throat.
All I'm saying is that there's no sense in making F&L answer the same thing about a single player over and over and over again. They're his rankings. Not yours or mine. If you think Beck is going to be all-world, then go out and acquire him in every league you're in. Just don't sit here and try to beat your beliefs and opinions into F&L so that he bumps Beck up from his #32 QB to #27.
P.S. - Heath Miller significantly outperforming Vernon Davis this season has amounted to a whopping 1.9ppg differential between the two (based on FBG's standard scoring). If you think that's going to win you a fantasy title, then you probably shouldn't be debating much of anything on this board.
ETA - This is the end of my rant as I'm interested in reading F&L's rankings and replies to questions, not my own or others ramblings.
All I'm saying is that there's no sense in making F&L answer the same thing about a single player over and over and over again. They're his rankings. Not yours or mine. If you think Beck is going to be all-world, then go out and acquire him in every league you're in. Just don't sit here and try to beat your beliefs and opinions into F&L so that he bumps Beck up from his #32 QB to #27.
P.S. - Heath Miller significantly outperforming Vernon Davis this season has amounted to a whopping 1.9ppg differential between the two (based on FBG's standard scoring). If you think that's going to win you a fantasy title, then you probably shouldn't be debating much of anything on this board.
ETA - This is the end of my rant as I'm interested in reading F&L's rankings and replies to questions, not my own or others ramblings.
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Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
I understand your point, but please stop saying stuff like this. It's insulting, and if I sat down and crunched the numbers, I could probably make the argument that you're wrong.
az_prof
Footballguy
I am interested in what people think of Jeff King as a longterm dynasty TE. I didn't know anything about him until the staff here started to say good things about him this preseason. He has done well at times this year with a few great games and is like 14th overall in PPR. That's ok but not worth keeping on a roster unless he can take the next step to be in the top 10. So, the question in my mind is does he have the ability to be a top 10 TE if CAR improves its QB play? What is his ceiling and how do we know that?
Keys - No insult intended. Apologies. But if you can make the argument that Miller is averaging more than 1.9ppg more than Vernon Davis this season then I'm all ears. People are defending Miller like he's the 2nd coming at TE and an all-world producer this season. He's not. He's a mid to low-level startable TE who isn't going to win you a fantasy title unless, like a previous poster said, he gets on some crazy hot streak in the fantasy playoffs. But then the same could be said for Davis as neither has yet proven to have that kind of consistency in them.
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
I wasn't debating the 1.9PPG part of your argument. I get your point, it's a good one, but the insulting tone when I could probably make the argument that 2 points per game is not insignificant is pretty unnecessary.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Great reply by The Man Who Shot Andy Griffith. I think he put it very well.Favre is a stud right now. He can help you win championships. I don't think Heath Miller is a weekly advantage, and I don't buy the argument that he's a better weekly play from here on out than Vernon Davis is. If I had the two in a redraft league, I would have to debate weekly which one to start and then play one or the other based on match-ups.1) I don't agree with this. "Situation" again.2) If you're shooting for a 2007 championship Miller can help you **more** than Davis can.
Again, I'm not trying to get caught up in Favre vs. Miller. I'm just wondering why the reasoning of "Solid producer immediately" doesn't apply to TEs, at least not in this case. No truly "unproven" talent exists in the top tiers of the QB rankings. Cutler was only recently bumped. The highest you see in RBs is Reggie Bush, as far as talent outweighing production in the ranks, and after that you have to slip all the way down to Michael Turner or Maroney. Let me say that I'm on board with this philosophy. The guys that have produced should be at the top. Davis, in my mind, doesn't fit this billing. Sure, he looks pretty damn good when he plays ( I'll leave the games played issue out of this discussion ), but so have the Brandon Marshall types, and those guys are "Tier Three" players.
Maybe you think Davis is the "Reggie Bush" of the TE world and that's the answer I'm looking for. I know he's got talent, but I didn't think it was THAT type of talent.
Personally, I just feel like the Favre/Miller comparison is apples/oranges.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Well my thinking on this is certainly not at a settled point yet. Thats why I would like to discuss it and find out what others may be thinking about this situation.Marvin will be 36 years old at the start of next season and possibly still recovering from injury. Injuries are more difficult to overcome the older one is. There is a lot of historical evidence showing large downward trends for good WRs past age 35. Marvin has been an uber talented WR so he very well could buck that trend. He has been the primary target for Manning ever since Manning came into the league. They grew up together and there is plenty of reason to think that Marvin will not go away any time soon despite the things against him.That being said Marvins injury seems to be worse than anyone knows and he has missed a lot of time. He is past 36 years old and his cap numbers are not friendly to a Colts team that could use some wiggle room. I am uncertain about Marvins passion for the game as well as there have been some hints of disatisfaction from him recently. How long will he try to extend his career if not able to do what he used to do? What if he does begin now to have a lesser role in the offense? How will his ego respond to that? I am not sure about this at all but it also would not suprise me if he decided to retire gracefully instead of clinging on as a former shadow of himself.Meanwhile you have Gonzalez who seems far ahead of the learning curve for Colts recievers in the Manning era. Marvin and Wayne both took 4 years of development before they became elite status. But Gonzo appears to me to be ahead of that time table.In the end it comes down to what type of time frame one is basing their rankings on. If it is more short term, which I think is a somewhat strong emphasis you have on your rankings then waiting for 2009 for Gonzo to emerge may not be significant enough to have him ranked higher than you currently do. If your thinking longer term in your valuation however and allready seeing what Gonzo is capable of now, then paitence may lead you to conclude that he should be ranked higher for his potential in 2009 seasons and beyond.For reference here are the WRs you ranked around Gonzalez:TIER FOUR[60] #Javon Walker DEN [x] 28.9 [60] Santana Moss WAS 28.3 [58] Roddy White ATL 25.8[57] Bernard Berrian CHI (U) 26.7[56] #Jerricho Cotchery NYJ 25.3[55] #Laveranues Coles NYJ 29.7[55] Sidney Rice® MIN 21.0[50] #D.J. Hackett SEA (U) 26.1[49] Deion Branch SEA 28.2 TIER FIVE[43] Anthony Gonzalez® IND 23.0 [42] Kevin Curtis PHI 29.2[41] Chris Chambers SD 29.1[39] Chris Henry CIN 24.3[38] Donte Stallworth NE [x] 26.8[38] Mark Clayton BAL 25.2[36] Joey Galloway TB 35.8[35] James Jones® GB 23.5[33] Ted Ginn Jr.® MIA 22.4You have him ranked at the top of Tier 5. So a tweener between Tier 4 and Tier 5. I see a lot of uncertainty in the players ranked in Tier 4 ahead of him that I could see Gonzalez being ranked ahead of at this point. That is coming from a perspective that even if Gonzo becomes WR 3(A,B,C) in a target share with Marvin and Clark in 2008 that is fairly equal in distributioin (thus devaluing all 3 players) behind Wayne. That this situation will likely change in his favor by 2009 thus making him more worthwhile in the long run than other questionable players in Tier 4. If Marvin does fall from prominence (or has allready) that only quickens the timeframe for Gonzo to get the opportunity needed to emerge far ahead of that group of players.Like I allready said I am not certain about how this will play out and only offering these ideas for discussion. The only thing that seems very clear to me is that Gonzo has allready shown himself to be ahead of schedule working within the offense than either Marvin or Wayne were at the same point of development in their careers. I think that bodes very well for him.Fear & Loathing said:
PranksterJD
Footballguy
It absolutely is, and I shouldn't have made it. I was really just trying to merge concepts from earlier, and leave the names out. Didn't work. This is by far my favorite thread in the SP, and I really appreciate the effort, so let me try again... Forget Miller, I could care less about that guy. I agree completely with everyone that has said he is middle-tier talent, and if I owned him I would be constantly looking to upgrade. In reality, my question was around Vernon Davis, though I didn't explain it well enough at all...In most other circumstances, players with extremely high upside are not placed highly on the list just because of their potential. Jamarcus Russell is behind guys like Philip Rivers and Garrard. Solid fantasy plays, sure, but not guys that are going to win you a championship by themselves, and Russell seems like a guy with Davis-style upside. There are a few exceptions to this ( Reggie Bush, Calvin Johnson ), but in general you've got guys with talent lower than upper-middle-class guys that are performing **now** until they show something.So for guys like Dallas Clark, Miller, Shockey... sure they may only be 1.9 ppg or whatever over Davis, but the flip side of that number is that they have a 40%-50% production over Davis, so the final TE scoring for the year is an increase over an opponent that has Davis starting weekly ( for the present ). Are they every week starts over Davis, definitely not. Are they going to help you more over the course of a season, seems that way. I guess I just don't see SF getting much better in 2008, so I feel like guys of this caliber have another season of outperforming Davis.So.. in your opinion, is Davis the freakish player with potential on the level of Reggie and Calvin? Are you expecting a significant turn around in SF's offense? Are all the lower TE's really just that mediocre? Just looking for a little insight on why this is one of the few players that transcends the "production" barrier into the top tiers simply based on talent and flashes of performance?Again, awesome thread. Keep up the great work.ETA: Re-read the posts above and I think maybe SSOG's one liner earlier is what I need to focus on. I guess the 1-3 potential of Davis is worth the minimal gain in the short term.Fear & Loathing said:
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stevegamer
Footballguy
I think it comes down to the difference between between being an above average starter NOW who helps you win, versus a marginal starter NOW.
For me, Favre is a top-6 starting QB. That's value over half the league for this year. I am confident I can't find anyone close to him on waivers during the year. Yes, Anderson turned out to be one of those guys, but average starter quality FF QB on waivers in dynasty don't happen often.
Neither Miller nor Zavis is that right now, so they aren't a big deal, relatively. For a lower-level producer, I'd want to see more upside. I am confident that I can find a guy within a few points of teh current production of Miller or Davis on waivers most of the time.
I do think Davis is that freakish a talent that he can be be a top 4 TE for a long while once the crappy situation is resolved.
For me, Favre is a top-6 starting QB. That's value over half the league for this year. I am confident I can't find anyone close to him on waivers during the year. Yes, Anderson turned out to be one of those guys, but average starter quality FF QB on waivers in dynasty don't happen often.
Neither Miller nor Zavis is that right now, so they aren't a big deal, relatively. For a lower-level producer, I'd want to see more upside. I am confident that I can find a guy within a few points of teh current production of Miller or Davis on waivers most of the time.
I do think Davis is that freakish a talent that he can be be a top 4 TE for a long while once the crappy situation is resolved.
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EBF
Footballguy
I'd bump Kellen Clemens down below Edwards, Quinn, and Rodgers. I wouldn't trade any of those guys for him. He's done nothing with his opportunity.
I don't see much to like about Jason Campbell. He's had plenty of time to develop and he's still completely mediocre. I would rather have Edwards, Quinn, and Rodgers. At least those guys might develop into a top 10 type. I have little reason to believe Campbell ever will.
I don't see much to like about Jason Campbell. He's had plenty of time to develop and he's still completely mediocre. I would rather have Edwards, Quinn, and Rodgers. At least those guys might develop into a top 10 type. I have little reason to believe Campbell ever will.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
At this point in each of their developments, the conversation changes weekly. After a good week, Campbell looks like a better bet than that crew. After a woeful week, he looks much worse. Same with Clemens. He could put up 300 yards and 3 TDs this week, and then the conversation changes completely. You caught Rodgers' only good game when he came in for Favre against the Cowboys, so that's the game fresh in your mind. Prior to 2007, he looked terrible every time he took the field in pre-season or mop up time. Trent Edwards has looked very good some games and simply awful in others, but his 4-TD game is freshest in your mind. That's just the nature with young QBs. I'm giving Clemens a leash until the end of the season. If he doesn't show marked improvement by then, he's going to move down. I'm not a huge Campbell believer, but I know plenty around here who are.EBF said:
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EBF
Footballguy
That's partially correct, but Edwards has been pretty solid all year. He dominated in the preseason and has played well enough to keep his team in the game for the majority of his starts. I agree that last week was his first real breakout FF game, but he's a guy that I've been talking about for a while. He's having a pretty good rookie year for a QB. It's not Roethlisberger good, but it's in Leinart/Cutler territory. As for Rodgers, I was higher on him coming out of college than I ever was on Campbell or Clemens. I've always questioned the rumors that he was a bust, as you can see in this old post:
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...&hl=Rodgers
I'm usually inclined to favor promising unknowns over guys who aren't taking advantage of their opportunity. It's possible that Clemens or Campbell will pull a Drew Brees and make major strides, but neither player has impressed me so far.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Thanks, Prankster.I think stevegamer covered the key points here.stevegamer said:
I'm a bit confused by Prankster's comparisons as he's trying to merge concepts, but I'll give it a shot anyway. I'm not comfortable with the statement that freakishly talented players like Calvin Johnson, Reggie Bush, and Vernon Davis haven't shown production yet, and I've even less comfortable with the comparisons to each other as opposed to looking specifically at their unique situations. So let's take a look at each one individually:
Bush has had moments of very high production. We mentioned a couple of weeks ago that he was #4 amongst all RBs in PPR leagues at the time. Are there some legit concerns about his production going forward? I'd say so, yes. But take a look at the rest of the guys in his tier and tell me which ones don't have legit concerns about their future production. Lynch is averaging less than 4.0 yards per carry and sharing carries with Fred Jackson for the moment. He's also been noticeably absent in the passing game. McGahee is undoubtedly more valuable in redraft leagues than Bush, but is he more valuable in dynasty leagues? I could see that one going either way. Would you give up Bush's upside for McGahee's stability? Tough call. MJD is scoring touchdowns again, but Fred Taylor has outplayed him recently and taken way too many of his carries throughout the season. Clinton Portis has had one run over 20 yards this season, is averaging just 3.7 YPC, and clearly isn't the explosive back he once was. Willie Parker is losing goal-line and 3rd down work to Najeh Davenport and remains a boom-or-bust type of runner. We don't know when Ronnie Brown will hit the field again as a fantasy asset. Ditto Larry Johnson.
Calvin Johnson, the most talented WR to come into the league since Randy Moss, has been held back by a back injury for much of the season, yet has still shown flashes of his playmaking potential. I'd be unwilling to give up on his difference-making potential just 13 games into his rookie season. Let's see how he does the rest of the season before we say we're ranking him more on flashes of talent than production. Did I think he'd be one of the rare WRs to come into the league and light it on fire? Yes. But I also believe the back injury and his role in the offense have held him back. And I think he's going to end up with about 800 yards and 7-8 total TDs in his rookie season. With a player of his freakish talent, the dominant production could flick on at any time.
There aren't a lot of fantasy leaguers who look at a terrible team in-season and can imagine that team not struggling the next season. I certainly didn't expect the Buccaneers to have a better-than-average offense this season when they were almost Raiders-bad last season. But fantasy leaguers get caught up in the current season and fail to fully comprehend how quickly change happens in the NFL. There's very little chance the 49ers offense is not going to improve next season. As a player with tremendous talent and already producing on the same level as solid starters Heath Miller and Jeremy Shockey over the past two months, Vernon Davis' 2008 looks much brighter than his 2007. As stevegamer alluded to, I can find somebody like a Donald Lee to pair with him while he struggles to reach stud status. In the meantime, I'd be unwilling to give up his potential for a perceived minor step up to Heath Miller or Jeremy Shockey, especially when I believe he's just as good of a bet to match their production going forward. Who are the tight ends below Vernon Davis that you like better? Aren't they all either not producing significantly more than Vernon Davis (Scheffler, Miller, Shockey, Watson, and Olsen all fall into this category), have an uncertain future in the middle of a career year (Dallas Clark), or simply less talented with little upside beyond current production (Owen Daniels)?
And that's really more than I wanted to put into the conversation when it's simply a matter of not believing that Heath Miller's minor production edge from Weeks 1-14 in 2007 mean that he's going to be any more productive than Vernon Davis starting in Week 15 and lasting through the next few seasons.
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Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I'm rethinking your original post because I noticed that the feedback influenced me on some of these rankings. There's no doubt I'd rather have Brady Quinn on my roster than Jason Campbell, but I think in some situations I've been kind of "brainwashed" into going against my own judgment. With all of the vocal support that Campbell received here a couple of weeks ago, I've given him more credit than I truly believe he deserves. I'm going to revisit the young QB especially over the next few weeks.
stevegamer
Footballguy
F&L:
Atlanta is in a state of flux. I think there's a chance the shakeup allows some players to show what they can do, particularly Norwood & Robinson.
I'm not looking for thoughts on those 2 specifically, but what you think of coaching changes in-season and how they can cause roles to shift, and thoughts on trying to acquire players on Atlanta looking for value changes.
Atlanta is in a state of flux. I think there's a chance the shakeup allows some players to show what they can do, particularly Norwood & Robinson.
I'm not looking for thoughts on those 2 specifically, but what you think of coaching changes in-season and how they can cause roles to shift, and thoughts on trying to acquire players on Atlanta looking for value changes.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I think the first inclination is to believe situations like Atlanta's lost season call for a youth movement. However, I think there's some of the Dolphins-like scenario going on right now in Atlanta with the veteran backlash. The Dolphins are starting Cleo Lemon over John Beck because Cameron feels like he owes it to his veterans to go with the player who gives his team the best chance to win. I get the feeling Emmitt Thomas will have a similar philosophy with the Falcons veterans having such a chip on their shoulder. Norwood appears to be the one player who could see a role increase. Dunn is so well respected by the coaching staff and the other players, but he's just been completely ineffective. I would caution, though, that I've heard comments during Falcons games that the offensive staff simply doesn't believe Norwood is an every down back because they don't believe he can run between the tackles or hold up physically to a full work load. That staff is minus Petrino, but the rest of the evaluators are still there. Having seen Norwood play quite often, I agree with the staff. But Norwood is a back who could be used much more effectively in a "change of pace/get the ball to him in space" type of role if they could find a few creative ways to get the ball in his hands more often. If I had to hazard a guess, I'd say they will try to get him the ball more often but I doubt he pushes Dunn completely out of the way the last three games. Next season is a different story.I don't think much else will change with only three games left to play. Michael Jenkins is coming off a very good game, so I don't see them messing with his role for three games. I assume Laurent Robinson's role will stay the same until next season.
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Anthony Borbely
Footballguy
Regarding the Vernon Davis talk, I will only say one thing: I seriously have never seen a worse passing offense than the one the 49ers have had this year. Never. In over 35 years of watching football. They are horrendous. I'm sure there have been worse, but I sure haven't seen anything so ineffective and lackluster. They can't even run a simple play without something going wrong. Alex Smith was terrible, partly due to injury, Dilfer is awful, Hill is no better. Davis never had a chance to improve.
I would give Vernon Davis a pass for this season, without hesitation, for that reason alone. I actually think his numbers border on impressive considering the horrendous passing game. I think many have already given up on him. For those who have, i'd be looking to buy low.
I would give Vernon Davis a pass for this season, without hesitation, for that reason alone. I actually think his numbers border on impressive considering the horrendous passing game. I think many have already given up on him. For those who have, i'd be looking to buy low.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Good point. Gregg Rosenthal said basically the same thing in his blog a few weeks ago backed up by some numbers he got from Drinen. He said the numbers show this year's 49ers as the worst passing offense in NFL history.Let me see if I can find a link...
Here it is:
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Anthony Borbely
Footballguy
I have seen numerous posts calling Calvin a bust, especially after he had a poor half in the Thanksgiving day game, where he dropped three passes or however many it was. Well, Calvin has not had the smoothest of rookie years. First,. he was a holdout, and missed all of camp, finally signing right before the preseason games started. On top of that, he has to learn possibly the most complex offense there is....with NO CAMP. He has been behind the 8 ball since he signed. He played a lot in preseason, but was not prepared for everything regarding the offense. That set him way back. He did not start early on because he wasn't ready to. I really don't think people realize how tough and complex the Mike Martz offense is. Once the season started, his playing time increased. Then he hurt his back, and he is just now getting healthy. I don't have the numbers nor have I seen them, but I am betting he has barely played half of the snaps that the Lions offense has played. He missed a full game, most of the game he was hurt, and parts of other games, due to his back injury. Where the injury really affected him was that he could not practice. That is the worst of everything...no camp, a lot of lost practice time, and not being healthy. Right now, with all of the above, he has 37 catches for 553 yards and 4 TDs. When you factor in the holdout, missing camp, missing games, missing a lot of practice time, learning a complex offense and most importantly, not playing as many snaps as he could have, I think his numbers are pretty impressive. I saw some Lions practices and Calvin is someone that you automatically notice. He is a huge man. He has the best combination of skills that I have ever seen as a rookie. I am not at all concerned about the drops he has had. He has great hands. I don't have any doubt that he is going to be a uber stud. I was at the Lions game against Dallas, and they threw a pass to him in the end zone, against a double team. Only a great play by one of the DBs kept it from being a highlight reel catch. He went WAY up over the top of both defenders and snatched the ball out of the air, and if not for a great play, it would have been a TD. Some of the plays he can make are almost uncatchable for any other WR. And he is a rookie and doesn't even know the game yet. People call me crazy for saying this, but there is not another WR that I would trade Calvin for right now. His potential is limitless, and his ceiling is much higher than any other WR playing right now.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Awesome. I feel revivified in my Calvin 
I'm not willing to go quite as far as you, but I certainly wouldn't call you crazy for saying that. There are very few WRs that I would rather have in dynasty leagues.
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az_prof
Footballguy
I respect Anthony as much as anyone on these boards, but I have to say that there is a bit of the fan speaking there. I mean, come on...this guy was supposed to be the best WR prospect EVER--so five hundred yards is pretty much a big turd. I still think he will be good but I never believed the hype that he was best thing since sliced bread to begin with...peoeple said the same thing about Charles Rogers and Andre Johnson and Mike Williams.
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Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
...and Adrian Peterson, and Larry Fitzgerald, and Randy Moss, and LaDainian Tomlinson, and Marshall Faulk, and Peyton Manning.It doesn't pay to realize it after the fact.
Well, bringing the discussion back a bit to QBs, I am of the view that Romo is a legit franchise QB with or without TO. He sees the field too well not to provide high end fantasy value even with a downgrade in his receivers (don't forget Terry Glenn). I see no reason to downgrade his dynasty value based on speculating whether TO leaves or implodes because if you step out and try to project the future WR corps for Dallas you could just as well speculate on what other talented free agent receivers JJ would pay through the nose to bring in to fill the gap (Chad Johnson? Randy Moss?). There really isn't much point to it IMO.
This is a misconception. Heap had played in all 16 games 4 out of the last 5 years entering this year. He may always be on the injury report, but he has been very good at giving it a go come gameday until this year.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
True. Thanks, Sigmund.Players who are currently injured always seem to be less reliable than they really are. Heap will be healthy next year, and he'll be good for 800 yards and absolutely one of the top redzone tight end targets in the league. He gets forgotten in the conversation of great tight ends, but he's up there with the best of them in terms of talent, skill, and athleticism.
He's at his ceiling - he's not that athletic, not a special red zone target or a guy with the burst to rip the seams and stretch the D. Other than the Indy game, when David Carr became locked on King in the second half, King has basically blended into the mediocre TE mix of guys like McMichael, Baker, and Eric Johnson.az_prof said:
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Good call. I liked Jeff King as a guy to build value coming into this season, but he's pretty much maxed out in my opinion. I'd rather have him than any of the guys you mentioned, especially in PPR leagues, but his ceiling is as a TE2 not a TE1.
I empathize and sort of agree with the point about beating a dead horse about relatively marginal players, and sorry if my TE ramblings made somebody scroll too slowly to get to F&L's more relevant points of wisdom.
But can't resist one more plug for Heath M: He had 6 TD's in the first 9 games this season. The Steelers O' has seriously stalled since, including some rather bizarre weather-related meltdowns. IMO his red-zone potential is as good as it has ever been, and his TD numbers have been very good for a young TE. I will indeed admit that I haven't seen enough of the 49'ers to comment as much on Vernon Davis' red zone ability, but his TD #'s have been almost non-existent.
Re: the comment about the 49'ers passing O being historically bad, the Raiders passing offense in the first half of last year couldn't possibly have been any better. And that was with THE Randy Moss in the lineup.
But can't resist one more plug for Heath M: He had 6 TD's in the first 9 games this season. The Steelers O' has seriously stalled since, including some rather bizarre weather-related meltdowns. IMO his red-zone potential is as good as it has ever been, and his TD numbers have been very good for a young TE. I will indeed admit that I haven't seen enough of the 49'ers to comment as much on Vernon Davis' red zone ability, but his TD #'s have been almost non-existent.
Re: the comment about the 49'ers passing O being historically bad, the Raiders passing offense in the first half of last year couldn't possibly have been any better. And that was with THE Randy Moss in the lineup.
sheerterror
Footballguy
I think Baker is a guy who might be underappreciated quite a bit. I'm a Jets fan and I think almost every Jet fan will agree that Baker has the best hands on the team. The guy just routinely makes sick catches (at least when he is actually thrown the ball.) But the talent is certainly there, it's just a matter of 1) the coaching staff eventually realizing that he can be a major weapon and 2) the O-line improving enough for him to be able to go out for passes more often. He was just given a raise, so the team seems convinced he should be around here for a while, and it wouldn't shock me if he developed into a top 10-15 TE in the future as the O and the O-line stabilizes. I think he's a great buy low because he can likely be had for nothing.
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Anthony Borbely
Footballguy
I respect your opinions on the boards as well. Thanks. I don't recall anyone ever saying Rogers, Andre, or Fat Mike were the best WR prospects ever. There was a lot of hype, because almost all high picks get high pick hype. But they all don't get the same hype Calvin got because nobody has ever had his combination of skills before. As for his numbers, yes, they are not great numbers, but when you look at the circumstances, and the things I mentioned, you should see there are legit reasons for his numbers being that low. I would bet the ranch if he had played the number of snaps we all thought he would play, that he would have numbers close to 75/ 1000/8-10 TDs by the end of the season. Right now, he is halfway to those, with 3 games left, and having missed significant time in camp, practice and games. We can all speculate and guess and use what if's....so I will use a what if and speculate that if he hadn't hurt his back, he would be on about 55/800/7 TDs right now. That is an additional 20/250/3. He missed a full game, plus most of another, and parts of several more, so this seems reasonable to me, even though it's just a guess. Numbers like that would put him in or near the top 20 in FBG scoring. Right now, he is 37th. I wish I had the time to research the number of snaps he and some others have taken. Aside from that, I really think his lack of practice time has been understated, considering that he is a rookie in a very complex offense.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Is the "number of snaps" data in the FBG game-charting database, or somewhere publicly available? TIA
Banger
Footballguy
Calvin Johnson's rookie year is a godsend for those us that weren't able to draft him this year. I'll be working all offseason to try and get my hands on him while he's still obtainable. After next year he'll be like B. Edwards and owners won't give him up.At the end of the day he's got measurables that are off the chart and he was injured, playing for an insane coordinator in a very complex offense all while being a rookie. Martz won't be there next year and whoever takes over will see the talent he has and quickly reduce S. MacDonald's/Furrey's roles and elevate Johnson's.
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