Dynasty Rankings (6 Viewers)

[Biabreakable]

In regards to draft picks by the NFL being all about talent.

That is not true. Often teams draft for specific needs regardless of what they might tell you about drafting best player available, or someone who was at the top of their board. There is a lot of pressure on coaches to win now and the drafts reflect that. They still will use free agency, undrafted free agents, trades whatever resources are available to them to improve their team and improve positions of current priority.

While teams will take on projects to see what happens they will not keep too many of them because they need players who can contribute now and stash guys on practice squads.

So this idea about talent trumping all and creme rising to the top. Coaches are not always thinking about that. See David Wilson right now. Tremendous talent. Does not pass protect well enough for current team goals of protecting Eli. Coaches are very much about what players can help them now. Where they were drafted means less and less each day after the NFL draft.

At the time of the draft teams will prioritize players that can help them in some way right now. There will be another batch of free agency and another draft the following year to fix areas that did not pan out.

There is politics. What I mean by this is that the players who have always been ranked the highest as high school prospects, and then later went to bigger schools, with more publicity. These players tend to be more successful due to the supporting players around them and also playing against less equipped schools, in terms of raw talent, training and support.

This is sometimes called hype. Most of the time the predictions were correct and then supported through their career. This earns the player a higher draft position than others of similar talent and athletic ability by comparison. Just because they come from a higher pedigree school and have been consistently ranked highly through their college career.

The NFL draft is very much influenced by all of this. Just as we will use ADP to plan ahead when we might need to draft a player, the NFL does this also by their scouting of the other teams. The more press on a player the more likely all of the NFL teams have all of that same information and they know this is common knowledge. They will do their own internal scouting on players for their draft board, but the grape vine does give them a ball park idea of where specific players will be targeted in the NFL draft. There are certainly some secrets and misinformation too.

But when one considers this. Is it really such a great idea to put so much emphasis on the draft process? I am not sure if NFL teams care too much about who they drafted 2 or 3 years ago. By then either they hit on player or are moving on. They hate to burn their early picks of course because those need to be difference makers. So of course that is the kind of player you are looking for at skill positions for the most part. Impact players should not fall through the NFL draft process. If they do there are some pretty huge reasons. What if for example all of the teams knew about Hernandez? Maybe we would all be wondering why he went undrafted. I think assuming you know so much about the secret ins and outs of an NFL organization based off of the order they picked some rookies, half of who may not even make the team. Is over doing it.

For examples I do not think 2013 is something we can evaluate until 2015 at soonest. So instead why not focus on the 2008-2010 draft classes. Most of those players have either produced something or washed out of the league by now.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I can think of several flagrant examples in recent years, most obviously this year with Knile Davis going entire rounds lower than guys like Johnathan Franklin, Zac Stacy, and Marcus Lattimore who were picked far lower in the NFL draft. The FF community sometimes makes judgments where it views a player as better or worse than his NFL draft slot. For example, Johnathan Dwyer was a "good" 6th round RB who went way higher in rookie drafts than his NFL draft slot would have dictated. Stevan Ridley was a "bad" 3rd round pick who was routinely drafted far later in rookie drafts than his NFL draft slot would have dictated. I'll maintain that Pierce was much the same. Maybe in some leagues he was the next RB taken after Pead and Hillman, but his ADP was far lower. Probably by 10-15 spots. Maybe more. I got him at 3.01 in one league, and that wasn't very unusual. You weren't going to get a sniff of Pead or Hillman that late. Pierce was viewed as substantially less valuable almost across the board.

Da'Rick Rogers is another poster boy of when the FF community gets it wrong. The fact that he was a UDFA means he should not have been a consideration in the first 30 picks of a rookie draft. But since the FF community convinced itself that they knew more than the NFL teams and that he was a "good" UDFA, he was criminally overdrafted. I'm just not sold that the FF community as a whole is very good at picking the "right" players within given NFL draft tiers. So often the success stories are players who turn out to be pretty obvious in hindsight, but who nobody hyped up at all when they were entering the league. Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick, Stevan Ridley, and TY Hilton were not low draft picks. Yet they were mostly disregarded in rookie drafts because the community had jumped to faulty conclusions about their value.

If someone like Knile Davis or Vance McDonald becomes a solid asset in the future, people will look back and wonder why they let him slide so far in their rookie drafts when the NFL put a pretty high value on him.

I think it's better to use subjective analysis within tiers than across tiers. For example, I don't think it would have been a major mistake to conclude that Marcus Lattimore was a better gamble than the other RBs selected in the 4th round of the draft. However, I don't think it would have been very wise to take Marcus Lattimore ahead of Christine Michael. That's jumping the tracks and saying you know more about value than NFL teams. You might get it right once or twice, but I think it's a losing strategy if you continually bet against the house. Again, I'm just not sold that people are as good as they think they are at outsmarting the system.

You are suffering from confirmation bias. Chris Henry (TEN) was a "bad 2nd rd RB." Eric Shelton was a "bad 2nd rd RB." JJ Arrington was a "bad 2nd rd RB."

 

[squistion]

Nobody is saying that the analysis begins and ends with where a player was picked.

Oh, wait...

Don't bother with 5th+ round NFL draft picks.

 

[EBF]

I can think of several flagrant examples in recent years, most obviously this year with Knile Davis going entire rounds lower than guys like Johnathan Franklin, Zac Stacy, and Marcus Lattimore who were picked far lower in the NFL draft. The FF community sometimes makes judgments where it views a player as better or worse than his NFL draft slot. For example, Johnathan Dwyer was a "good" 6th round RB who went way higher in rookie drafts than his NFL draft slot would have dictated. Stevan Ridley was a "bad" 3rd round pick who was routinely drafted far later in rookie drafts than his NFL draft slot would have dictated. I'll maintain that Pierce was much the same. Maybe in some leagues he was the next RB taken after Pead and Hillman, but his ADP was far lower. Probably by 10-15 spots. Maybe more. I got him at 3.01 in one league, and that wasn't very unusual. You weren't going to get a sniff of Pead or Hillman that late. Pierce was viewed as substantially less valuable almost across the board.

Da'Rick Rogers is another poster boy of when the FF community gets it wrong. The fact that he was a UDFA means he should not have been a consideration in the first 30 picks of a rookie draft. But since the FF community convinced itself that they knew more than the NFL teams and that he was a "good" UDFA, he was criminally overdrafted. I'm just not sold that the FF community as a whole is very good at picking the "right" players within given NFL draft tiers. So often the success stories are players who turn out to be pretty obvious in hindsight, but who nobody hyped up at all when they were entering the league. Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick, Stevan Ridley, and TY Hilton were not low draft picks. Yet they were mostly disregarded in rookie drafts because the community had jumped to faulty conclusions about their value.

If someone like Knile Davis or Vance McDonald becomes a solid asset in the future, people will look back and wonder why they let him slide so far in their rookie drafts when the NFL put a pretty high value on him.

I think it's better to use subjective analysis within tiers than across tiers. For example, I don't think it would have been a major mistake to conclude that Marcus Lattimore was a better gamble than the other RBs selected in the 4th round of the draft. However, I don't think it would have been very wise to take Marcus Lattimore ahead of Christine Michael. That's jumping the tracks and saying you know more about value than NFL teams. You might get it right once or twice, but I think it's a losing strategy if you continually bet against the house. Again, I'm just not sold that people are as good as they think they are at outsmarting the system.

You are suffering from confirmation bias. Chris Henry (TEN) was a "bad 2nd rd RB." Eric Shelton was a "bad 2nd rd RB." JJ Arrington was a "bad 2nd rd RB."

No, I've given credit for some of the good calls. AJ Jenkins and Buster Davis namely.

FYI, Shelton and Arrington went very high in rookie drafts.

I'm not saying the community never gets it right. I just don't know that the discounts/upgrades are any more accurate than random chance.

 

[Biabreakable]

2008 skill position draft picks-

3 69 SDG Jacob Hester FB 23
5 146 DET Jerome Felton FB 22
5 163 SEA Owen Schmitt FB 23
7 227 DEN Peyton Hillis FB 22

1 3 ATL Matt Ryan QB 23
1 18 BAL Joe Flacco QB 23
2 56 GNB Brian Brohm QB 23
2 57 MIA Chad Henne QB 23
3 94 NWE Kevin O'Connell QB 23
5 137 MIN John David BootyQB
5 156 PIT Dennis Dixon QB 23
5 160 TAM Josh Johnson QB 22
5 162 NYJ Erik Ainge QB 22
6 186 WAS Colt Brennan QB 25
6 198 NYG Andre Woodson QB 24
7 209 GNB Matt Flynn QB 23 - sort of had trade value after Green Bay traded him.
7 223 HOU Alex Brink QB 23

1 4 OAK Darren McFadden RB 21
1 13 CAR Jonathan StewartRB 21
1 22 DAL Felix Jones RB 21
1 23 PITRashard Mendenhall RB 21
1 24 TEN Chris Johnson RB 23
2 44 CHI Matt Forte RB 22
2 55 BAL Ray Rice RB 21
3 64 DET Kevin Smith RB 21
3 73 KAN Jamaal Charles RB 21
3 89 HOU Steve Slaton RB 22
4 122 DAL Tashard Choice RB 23
5 139 DEN Ryan Torain RB 22 - Started for some games.
5 149 ARI Tim Hightower RB 22 - Started for some games.
5 166 SDG Marcus Thomas RB 24
6 172 ATL Thomas Brown RB 22
6 176 MIA Jalen Parmele RB 22
6 179 BUF Xavier Omon RB 23
6 202 IND Mike Hart RB 22
6 204 MIA Lex Hilliard RB 24
7 213 JAXChauncey Washington RB 23
7 233 SEA Justin Forsett RB 22 - Had some games where he might have been a starter for you.
7 238 TAM Cory Boyd RB 23
7 240 BAL Allen Patrick RB 24

1 30 NYJ Dustin Keller TE 24
2 38 SEA John Carlson TE 24
2 48 WAS Fred Davis TE 22
2 61 DAL Martellus BennetTE 21
3 76 KAN Brad Cottam TE 23
3 85 TEN Craig Stevens TE 24
3 91 GNB Jermichael FinleyTE 21
4 111 CLE Martin Rucker TE 23
4 127 IND Jacob Tamme TE 23
4 132 BUF Derek Fine TE 25
5 141 CAR Gary Barnidge TE 23
5 158 CHI Kellen Davis TE 22
6 196 IND Tom Santi TE 22
6 207 CIN Matt Sherry TE 23
7 232 ATL Keith Zinger TE 22
7 239 KAN Mike Merritt TE 24

2 33 STL Donnie Avery WR 24
2 34 WAS Devin Thomas WR 21
2 36 GNB Jordy Nelson WR 23
2 41 BUF James Hardy WR 22
2 42 DEN Eddie Royal WR 22
2 46 CIN Jerome Simpson WR 22
2 49 PHI DeSean Jackson WR 21
2 51 WAS Malcolm Kelly WR 21
2 53 PIT Limas Sweed WR 23
2 58 TAM Dexter Jackson WR 22
3 70 CHI Earl Bennett WR 21
3 81 ARI Early Doucet WR 22
3 84 ATL Harry Douglas WR 24
3 95 NYG Mario ManninghamWR 22
3 97 CIN Andre Caldwell WR 23
4 105 KAN Will Franklin WR 22
4 106 BAL Marcus Smith WR 23
4 125 OAK Arman Shields WR 23
4 126 TEN Lavelle Hawkins WR 22
4 128 STL Keenan Burton WR 23
5 136 DET Kenneth Moore WR 23
5 153 NWE Matt Slater WR 23
6 171 NYJ Marcus Henry WR 22
6 174 SFO Josh Morgan WR 23 - Has been a starter at times.
6 182 KAN Kevin Robinson WR 23 .
6 191 CLE Paul Hubbard WR 23
6 193 MIN Jaymar Johnson WR 24
6 205 IND Pierre Garcon WR 22 - Is a starter/flex right now
7 215 BAL Justin Harper WR 23
7 217 GNB Brett Swain WR 23
7 224 BUF Steve Johnson WR 21
7 226 OAK Chaz Schilens WR 22
7 237 NOR Adrian ArringtonWR 22
7 246 CIN Mario Urrutia WR 22
7 248 CHI Marcus Monk WR 22


2009 skill positions-

1 1 DET Matthew StaffordQB 21
1 5 NYJ Mark Sanchez QB 22
1 17 TAM Josh Freeman QB 21
2 44 MIA Pat White QB 23
4 101 DAL Stephen McGee QB 24
5 151 NYG Rhett Bomar QB 24
5 171 SFO Nate Davis QB 22
6 174 DEN Tom Brandstater QB 24
6 178 SEA Mike Teel QB 23
6 196 STL Keith Null QB 24
6 201 IND Curtis Painter QB 24

1 12 DEN Knowshon Moreno RB 22
1 27 IND Donald Brown RB 22
1 31 ARI Chris Wells RB 21
2 53 PHI LeSean McCoy RB 21
3 65 NYJ Shonn Greene RB 24
3 74 SFO Glen Coffee RB 22
4 111 CAR Mike Goodson RB 22
4 128 CAR Tony Fiammetta RB 23
4 129 NYG Andre Brown RB 22
4 134 SDG Gartrell JohnsonRB
5 145 GNB Quinn Johnson RB 23
5 169 PIT Frank Summers RB 24
5 173 TEN Javon Ringer RB 22
6 185 BAL Cedric Peerman RB 22
6 192 DET Aaron Brown RB 23
6 195 CLE James Davis RB 23
6 209 CIN Bernard Scott RB 25 - had opportunity but failed.
7 211 STL Chris Ogbonnaya RB 23
7 212 KAN Javarris WilliamsRB 23
7 215 CIN Fui Vakapuna RB 25
7 221 WAS Eddie Williams RB 22
7 240 ARI LaRod Stephens-HowlingRB22 - used briefly.
7 250 JAX Rashad Jennings RB 24 - has had chances but failed.

1 20 DET Brandon PettigrewTE 24
2 64 DEN Richard Quinn TE 23
3 89 TEN Jared Cook TE 22
3 98 CIN Chase Coffman TE 22
3 100 NYG Travis Beckum TE 22
4 121 BUF Shawn Nelson TE 23
4 122 HOU Anthony Hill TE 24
5 149 BAL Davon Drew TE 23
5 152 HOU James Casey TE 25 - Currently with the Eagles
5 153 PHI Cornelius IngramTE 24
5 161 MIA John Nalbone TE 23
6 180 JAX Zach Miller TE 24 - Starter in Seattle? or is this another one?
6 184 SFO Bear Pascoe TE 23
6 202 OAK Brandon Myers TE 24 - current starter in NY
6 208 DAL John Phillips TE 22
7 237 KAN Jake O'Connell TE 23
7 241 PIT David Johnson TE 22
7 248 SEA Cameron Morrah TE 22
7 255 DET Dan Gronkowski TE 24

1 7 OAK Darrius Heyward-BeyWR 22
1 10 SFO Michael CrabtreeWR 22
1 19 PHI Jeremy Maclin WR 21
1 22 MIN Percy Harvin WR 21
1 29 NYG Hakeem Nicks WR 21
1 30 TEN Kenny Britt WR 21
2 36 CLE Brian Robiskie WR 21
2 50 CLE Mohamed MassaquoiWR 22
3 82 DET Derrick WilliamsWR 23
3 83 NWE Brandon Tate WR 21
3 84 PIT Mike Wallace WR 23
3 85 NYG Ramses Barden WR 23
3 87 MIA Patrick Turner WR 22
3 91 SEA Deon Butler WR 23
3 99 CHI Juaquin IglesiasWR 22
4 107 JAX Mike Thomas WR 22
4 108 MIA Brian Hartline WR 22
4 124 OAK Louis Murphy WR 22
4 127 IND Austin Collie WR 23
5 140 CHI Johnny Knox WR 22
5 141 DEN Kenny McKinley WR 22
5 144 JAX Jarett Dillard WR 23
5 160 STL Brooks Foster WR 23
6 175 KAN Quinten LawrenceWR 25 .
6 194 PHI Brandon Gibson WR 22
6 206 TEN Dominique EdisonWR 23
7 224 SDG Demetrius Byrd WR
7 229 DAL Manuel Johnson WR 22
7 232 NWE Julian Edelman WR 23
7 233 TAM Sammie StroughterWR 23
7 243 WAS Marko Mitchell WR 24
7 251 CHI Derek Kinder WR
7 252 CIN Freddie Brown WR
7 253 JAX Tiquan UnderwoodWR 22

2010 skill position prospects-

1 1 STL Sam Bradford QB 22
1 25 DEN Tim Tebow QB 23
2 48 CAR Jimmy Clausen QB 23
3 85 CLE Colt McCoy QB 23
4 122 PHI Mike Kafka QB 23
5 155 ARI John Skelton QB 22 - Horrible disaster as starter.
5 168 SDG Jonathan CromptonQB 23
6 176 TEN Rusty Smith QB 23
6 181 CHI Dan LeFevour QB 23
6 204 CAR Tony Pike QB 24
7 209 BUF Levi Brown QB 23
7 239 NOR Sean Canfield QB 24
7 250 NWE Zac Robinson QB 24

1 9 BUF C.J. Spiller RB 23
1 12 SDG Ryan Mathews RB 23
1 30 DET Jahvid Best RB 21
2 51 MIN Toby Gerhart RB 23
2 58 HOU Ben Tate RB 22
2 59 CLE Montario HardestyRB 23
4 112 NYJ Joe McKnight RB 22
5 139 NYJ John Conner RB 23
6 173 SFO Anthony Dixon RB 23
6 174 WAS Dennis Morris RB
6 180 JAX Deji Karim RB 23
6 188 PIT Jonathan Dwyer RB 21 - Had some chances. Might again at some point.
6 193 GNB James Starks RB 24 - Did pretty well yesterday.
6 200 PHI Charles Scott RB
7 237 MIN Ryan D'Imperio RB 23

1 21 CIN Jermaine GreshamTE 22
2 42 NWE Rob Gronkowski TE 21
3 70 BAL Ed Dickson TE 23
3 93 KAN Tony Moeaki TE 23
3 95 NOR Jimmy Graham TE 24
4 113 NWE Aaron Hernandez TE 20
4 114 BAL Dennis Pitta TE 25
4 118 HOU Garrett Graham TE 24
4 125 PHI Clay Harbor TE 23
5 132 STL Michael Hoomanawanui TE
5 154 GNB Andrew Quarless TE 21
5 162 IND Brody Eldridge TE 23
6 170 STL Fendi Onobun TE 23
6 182 SFO Nate Byham TE 22
6 185 SEA Anthony McCoy TE 22
7 214 MIN Mickey Shuler TE 23
7 233 ARI Jim Dray TE 23 - Had I think 5 receptions yesterday
7 235 SDG Dedrick Epps TE 22
7 245 SEA Jameson Konz TE 24

1 22 DEN Demaryius ThomasWR 22
1 24 DAL Dez Bryant WR 21
2 36 KAN Dexter McClusterWR 21
2 39 TAM Arrelious Benn WR 22
2 60 SEA Golden Tate WR 22
3 77 TEN Damian Williams WR 22
3 78 CAR Brandon LaFell WR 23
3 82 PIT Emmanuel SandersWR 23
3 84 CIN Jordan Shipley WR 24
3 87 DEN Eric Decker WR 23
3 88 ARI Andre Roberts WR 22
3 89 CAR Armanti Edwards WR 22
3 90 NWE Taylor Price WR 22
4 99 STL Mardy Gilyard WR 24
4 101 TAM Mike Williams WR 23
4 107 BUF Marcus Easley WR 24
4 108 OAK Jacoby Ford WR 23
5 156 BAL David Reed WR 23
5 159 PHI Riley Cooper WR 23 - Plays for Eagles.
5 165 ATL Kerry Meier WR 23
6 177 CLE Carlton MitchellWR 22
6 191 CIN Dezmon Briscoe WR 21
6 195 PIT Antonio Brown WR 24 - Main WR for Steelers
6 197 HOU Trindon HollidayWR 24
6 198 CAR David Gettis WR 23 - Has had some games.
6 199 MIN Joe Webb WR 23 - Played QB badly.
6 206 SFO Kyle Williams WR 22
7 219 WAS Terrence Austin WR 22
7 222 TEN Marc Mariani WR 23
7 227 HOU Dorin Dickerson WR 22
7 255 DET Tim Toone WR 25




I would think that since you are likely to invest more roster spots at the top of the draft than you will the bottom of the draft, that you will actually end up with more duds. Because you would likely eliminate most later round picks from consideration.

I take into consideration pre NFL draft value/ranking of players. That tells me which players were at one time highly thought of but may have fallen out of favor. They could be bargains if they turn that situation around.

The NFL draft is just a few days of time. Yes teams prepare for it season round, but once the draft is underway, teams are drafting based on the information they have at that time. Once training camp rolls around they will likely have different opinions about players. Not just the ones they drafted. Your putting too much emphasis on one point of time when things keep changing.

 

[thecardiackid]

Just wanted to check in and say congrats, this topic/post has over 1,000,000 replies. I'm not playing dynasty anymore, but did hang out here when FnL was driving the bus early on. Is he still hanging here? I owe him a fat tire if he makes it out to Colorado.

 

[EBF]

The NFL draft is just a few days of time. Yes teams prepare for it season round, but once the draft is underway, teams are drafting based on the information they have at that time. Once training camp rolls around they will likely have different opinions about players. Not just the ones they drafted. Your putting too much emphasis on one point of time when things keep changing.

Teams invest countless hours and dollars into getting their picks right. It's not like they just throw darts at the board when their pick is up. They put in the time and effort to make smart choices, which is why a pretty high percentage of the elite players in the NFL were identified and drafted high in their respective classes. It is not by accident that Fitzgerald, Green, Dez, Demaryius, Julio, and Roddy were all first round picks. Yes, there is the occasional Victor Cruz or Brandon Marshall who slips through the cracks, but look at the numbers and you will see some strong patterns. First round NFL draft picks represent a huge segment of the FF superstar population. Teams identify the premium talents and select them early.

As for your examples above, most of them were not real hits in any true sense of the word. Guys like Flynn, Forsett, Morgan, and Torain are not the kind of players you're looking for in a dynasty league. They are not guys who made any meaningful contribution to enduring success. The fact that you have to reach for any semblance of a success story in the late rounds just reflects how hard it is to find a genuine quality NFL starter that late.

The nice thing about draft position is that all of the results are right there in front of you. There is very little ambiguity. The higher a player is selected, the better his outlook. The numbers don't lie. Why some people are so violently opposed to this, I'm not quite sure. I guess that's how casinos do such a great business. Willful or unconscious ignorance to the basic underlying mathematics of the wager. It is the same pattern every year and people still find excuses to bet against the house. It's a losing proposition. We're already seeing similar things this year with a lot of the rookie draft reaches like Rogers, Stacy, Harper, and Franklin looking like weak picks in comparison to players like Woods, McDonald, Manuel, and Dobson who are at least getting on the field and showing some hints of a pulse.

 

[valhallan]

Just wanted to check in and say congrats, this topic/post has over 1,000,000 replies. I'm not playing dynasty anymore, but did hang out here when FnL was driving the bus early on. Is he still hanging here? I owe him a fat tire if he makes it out to Colorado.

No, he writes full time for NFL.com now. This thread is mostly about dynasty theory than rankings or players these days.

 

[Biabreakable]

Please stop talking about the 2013 draft. We will not know how that will turn out until 2015 soonest.

The 2013 was terrible for skill positions. You know that. So then why dismiss players drafted round 5 and after when the guys who were drafted rounds 2-4 are really not that good either?

I would say the later round picks are closer to the round 2-4 picks in 2013 than they are normally.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I think a lot of dynasty owners get too self-assured thinking they can somehow beat actual NFL scouting departments when it comes to measuring player talent, which causes them to reach on players with lower pedigree over players with higher pedigree. We saw that this offseason with Zac Stacy and Jonathan Franklin, who were both going in the 1st round at one point, as well as with Da'Rick Rogers, who some said they preferred over Robert Woods straight up. If you anchor heavily to NFL draft position, you'll be in a great position to swoop in and scoop up the Newtons and Demaryiuses who fall farther than they should while everyone else is busy reaching on a Greg Little or Daniel Thomas.

Newton fell farther because of the age-old adage of foregoing QBs in dynasty rookie drafts, a different topic altogether and a misconception that Cam has corrected going forward (one of several that he has changed in both fantasy and in the NFL).

Demaryius Thomas was already a top 5 dynasty rookie pick in 2010. Were players drafted ahead of him reaches? We commonly had Dez Bryant (also a 1st rounder), CJ Spiller (highest pedigree of them all), Ryan Mathews (drafted ahead of Thomas) and Jahvid Best (1st rounder at a scarce position and was seemingly on the road to super stardom himself before the concussions) drafted over Thomas. Basically, Demaryius was regularly drafted about where he should have been drafted given your criteria and would hardly have been "scooped up" by anyone.

Greg Little, a mid-1st dynasty rookie pick, was a late 2nd rounder in the NFL draft. Outside of Cam Newton, what players with better pedigree should have been taken before Little? Jon Baldwin? I’d say Little was taken about where he would have been taken following your recommendations.

Daniel Thomas, another mid-1st dynasty rookie pick and another 2nd rounder in the NFL draft (falling in a good fantasy situation). Were better choices with better pedigrees clear at the time?

Zac Stacy and Jonathan Franklin are more valid examples, but I wouldn’t think many were calling them better “talents” than higher pedigreed players drafted later in dynasty rookie drafts. They simply had a more visible road to fantasy relevance at a premium position, which was enough to take a shot at them late in the 1st or early 2nd over lets say a WR with higher pedigree but perhaps equally long odds of ever having fantasy relevance. The common mistake I saw was the taking of Franklin and sometimes even Stacy over Christine Michael, but even that can be explained by Michael’s 3rd string depth chart position. Overall, I am not seeing either as having been a huge reach over another rookie with a higher pedigree.

Your best example was Da’Rick Rogers, but in the 2nd round of rookie drafts, is it better to take the perceived-to-be less dynamic Robert Woods who has much higher odds of being better in the NFL than Rogers, but who may have very little odds of becoming fantasy relevant (as most 2nd rounders do), or, do you take a shot at a potentially more dynamic player that the NFL may have passed up for other reasons (such as attitude, lack of smarts, lack of refinement, etc.)? Its easy to point to Rogers because his fate is already largely known. However, where Woods was clearly the better choice for the NFL as a contributor (and drafted as such), the choice may not have been so clear for fantasy (where NFL contributors are not necessarily and are often not fantasy contributors).

Fantasy GMs DO have certain advantages over NFL GMs in the context of drafting for fantasy purposes and I believe the better fantasy GMs can in fact be better than NFL GMs in drafting…for fantasy football.

For one, we are drafting for potential fantasy contribution, where NFL GMs are drafting for contribution to an NFL team. A player more likely to make an NFL contribution can be less likely to make a fantasy one.

Two, while the NFL GMs have a lot more information on any particular player and have studied such players far more extensively than fantasy GMs, fantasy GMs have one very important data point that NFL GMs do not have. That is, where the player is actually drafted in the NFL and by whom. In a sense, that takes the mounds of information and all of the advantages that the NFL GMs have over fantasy GMs and gift wraps it to fantasy GMs in a nice, uncluttered piece of information. At that point, NFL GMs and Fantasy GMs are on equal footing.

Three, fantasy GMs have the advantage of knowing the situation in which a player is drafted and can adjust their rankings for that situation. NFL GMs only care about which player is the best player to fill the role that they need filled for their particular team. They didn’t care (nor did they have the info, nor would it cross their mind) that Dez Bryant would have advantages catching passes from Tony Romo over Demaryius Thomas catching passes from Tim Tebow!

Demaryius was frequently going after Hardesty and Tate in the earlier rookie drafts, prior to those two backs getting injured. You're right on Little- I was remembering how much earlier he was going than Randall Cobb and was thinking it was because Little kept getting reached on, but looking at ADP data, it's because Cobb kept falling.

In a draft that saw 17 skill players taken in the first two rounds, burning a dynasty 1st round pick on a 4th or 5th round RB definitely counts as a reach. Also, assuming that Robert Woods has a low ceiling before he ever plays a snap is textbook hubris. I remember when Roddy White was a low-ceiling WR who would never amount to more than an NFL #2, too. At the end of the day, if he was talented enough to get drafted in the 2nd round, he's talented enough to put up fantasy numbers.

The rest of your post is stuff I agree with, but which I addressed in my articles. I'm not saying draft position is the end of the discussion, I'm saying that you can use it as a starting point and then easily adjust it to account for factors that matter to fantasy GMs but not to NFL GMs.

 

[Adam Harstad]

This has already been discussed plenty. If you just go by the NFL draft then guys like Alfred Morris and so many others never get drafted in FF and become free agent pick ups instead.

Great method?

I disagree. I think this is a facile argument to make an excuse for why FF owners are no good at identifying talent + opportunity.

Okay, let's stick with these alternate methods that led to Alfred Morris being a prized pickup in dynasty drafts. Ummm... what were those methods again? Because I seem to recall *NOBODY* caring two figs about Morris until he got named the starter. So, sure, draft position method missed on Alfred Morris... but it's irrelevant when comparing that method to every other method, because every other method missed on Morris, too.

Likewise, show me the methodology that was high on Marques Colston or Victor Cruz or Tom Brady. It's easy to say after the fact "we know some late-round players will be great, and relying on draft position means you'll always miss those guys!". It just so happens to be true. It's also completely irrelevant if every other method misses those guys, too. I know that some late-round players will be great, but I don't know which ones, and I don't think there's any method at all that can consistently or reliably identify them ahead of time. Meanwhile, anyone who tries to pick them out ahead of time is going to be consistently giving up EV by drafting inferior players hoping to finally get one to hit.

 

[Biabreakable]

Actually people are more likely to be giving up EV by holding players who were drafted in the 1st 3-4 rounds much longer than they will later picks, if they drafted those later picks at all.

You are not likely to hold a dud who was a later NFL pick as you are to hold a dud who was a 1st round NFL pick.

 

[Adam Harstad]

EBF I know what you are saying and of course one must consider the odds. But your example is not including players such as Ahmad Bradshaw and many others who have also come from late draft position.

The argument also only considers the 1st round NFL pick success stories, and forgets about all the failures and busts.

That is not an honest argument.

You can lay odds by draft position. That is a important factor for consideration. But what about opportunity? That is another factor as well which should have some bearing on your ranking in my honest opinion.

If you are having anyone pay you for your opinion on dynasty rankings (I think some of you here are) I think you should be able to do better than just re-listing rookie players based on the NFL draft.

It actually really irks me that you guys are basically saying, no it is too hard to figure out, so I wont try, the NFL draft knows best.

You are outsmarting yourselves by conceding this just as much as people are outsmarting themselves trying to find those diamonds in the rough before training camp.

I don't just re-list draft order. In the articles, I detail the case for trusting draft position as a proxy for player talent. Value isn't just talent, though- value = talent + opportunity, so you still have to do some subjective adjustments. Further, the NFL values players on things that are important to the NFL. Sometimes, those things are irrelevant to fantasy. You'd never draft a blocking TE in your dynasty draft, regardless of where he was drafted. Meanwhile, a horrible blocker like Jordan Reed becomes more valuable, because his poor blocking which is a liability in the NFL becomes an asset in fantasy (he spends more time in routes; see Thomas, Julius).

NFL scouts spend thousands more hours every year evaluating players. NFL scouting departments employ dozens of scouts to form a consensus. NFL front offices spend millions of dollars to attract the best and brightest scouts, and to set them up for success. There are 32 NFL GMs, meaning there is intense competition for the position, making it an extremely strong meritocracy. The NFL draft is a marketplace where those 32 individuals engage in a give-and-take to determine a league-wide consensus about player value. I'd have to be insane to think that I could compete with all of that. This isn't "giving up", this is being realistic- I could no more out-scout the NFL draft consensus than I could cover A.J. Green or block J.J. Watt. I've been talking about time management recently, and this is another great example- it makes much more sense for me to just accept the NFL consensus as a proxy for talent rather than trying to beat the market in scouting. That leaves me with more time to devote to evaluating situations (the other half of the "talent + opportunity = production" equation).

In the articles, I make a comparison to the stock market. There are so many people playing the stock market that it becomes extremely good at pricing stocks. Individual hedge fund managers- really smart, well-educated men compensated tens of millions of dollars every year- fail to consistently beat the market average. Even the best and the brightest can't do better than the consensus when it comes to pricing stocks. Instead, over the last 40 years, it turns out that the funds that have given the highest return have been simple index funds, which don't try to beat the market average at all- they try to track the market average perfectly with as little effort as possible, and then use that reduction in effort to compete on management fees. Dynasty drafts are different from the stock market because other traders aren't deciding between one $60 stock or another $60 stock... they're selecting $20 stocks (Da'Rick Rogers) over $60 stocks (Robert Woods). Someone who simply tries to track the market average can make a killing in a system like that.

Ultimately, when I'm posting my rookie rankings, my goal isn't to be as novel as possible, or to give people advice that they would never hear anywhere else. My goal is to be as accurate as possible, and to get people as much EV in their rookie drafts as I possibly can. I firmly believe my current approach accomplishes that goal.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I may be exaggerating because honestly this really makes me angry.

I do hear folks who are self proclaimed experts on the subject essentially saying to make your rankings based off of the NFL draft 1st and foremost.

Anyone can look at a NFL draft list and easily identify what the NFL teams at the time of the draft thought about the relative success rate of the players they drafted. Teams draft players with many other considerations in mind than I think people consider however. For example special teams potential may not help in FF (unless hopefully your league scores for returns) but it sure helps teams win games and teams will draft players because of this.

You have to look at each team and ask, why did the team draft this player at this position? How does that fit in with the rest of their roster right now. What role are they hoping this player grows into? How well suited is that player for that role? What other players are competing with that player for that role? What would happen if the starter ahead of that player gets injured? What are the salary cap considerations here ( as alluded to by wcrob above)? What about legal troubles possibly leading to suspension?

This list could go on and on.

I also do not think talent creates opportunity. If that were true then Da'Rick Rodgers would be starting right now. There is a lot of politics and marketing behind who gets opportunity or not. This is an argument for draft position leading to opportunity, you see that all the time, the front office does not want to admit they were wrong for drafting a player highly so they give that player more opportunity than their talent/performance deserves. Ultimately coaches want to win which should lead to them playing the players who give them the best opportunity to do so or be fired.

I feel like you're getting very angry and attacking me for a position that you don't fully understand yet. I know you haven't mentioned me specifically, but since I'm a self-proclaimed expert who suggests relying first and foremost on draft position, I feel like I fall under the umbrella of your criticism.

Yes, NFL franchises draft players based on special teams contributions, and such players will have an inflated draft position. I agree completely, which is why I brought up this very point in my article and explained how to adjust for this phenomenon. Likewise, the NFL will draft a player higher if he's a good blocker, while that particular skill will not result in more fantasy points. I brought up that point in my article and explained how to address that, too. The salary cap creates different incentives for NFL franchises, generally making them more risk adverse (because the cost to an NFL team of failure is greater than the cost to a fantasy team, which is primarily just an opportunity cost). I addressed that in my article and explained how to adjust for it.

NFL franchises value positions differently. The average NFL team views RB as fungible, and will generally take a less talented WR over a slightly more talented RB. In fantasy, RBs are more valuable than WRs. I pointed this out in my article and explained how to adjust for it. Sometimes players with equal talent levels will have different values based on the distribution of their skills- for instance, backs that are good runners and superlative receivers will be more valuable in PPR leagues than backs that are good receivers and superlative runners. I addressed this in my article and explained how to account for it.

I understand if you are not a subscriber and therefore don't have access to my articles, but please give me some credit. It was a 3-part series, so it seems unlikely that the entire thing just boiled down to "teams are smart, just use draft position, have a good season". If you have specific concerns, ask me about them and I can explain where I'm coming from. I promise you, I've put a lot of time, effort, and thought into my ranking system. I believe I've addressed all of the potential flaws. If there's something you think I've overlooked, feel free to bring it up, and either you're right and I can correct for it and improve my system going forward, or you're wrong and I can explain to you how I've already accounted for it.

In the meantime, though, you're getting worked up over a straw man. EBF and I are discussing using draft position as a starting point, not an ending point.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I think that is pretty lazy and worthless 'analysis' to say that all someone needs to do is look at NFL draft position as the be all end all of rookie player evaluation.

Which is not something I've ever said.

Draft position is the best starting point. From there you can consider other factors to help refine your list.

Well you did say that you would dismiss all players drafted after round 4.

The beauty of it is that you can comfortably pass on the 5th round-UDFA rookies in your dynasty drafts

X

This is what makes me angry that you would jump to this conclusion despite the MANY examples of player drafted after the 4th round who have gone on to very successful careers. Nothing wrong with your data, but there is something very wrong with how you are suggesting people apply it.

You and Adam and everyone who is a proponent of this are talking yourselves out of a job then. If you are going to comfortably ignore all players drafted after the 4th round then what does anyone need to listen to your opinion for? They can just look at the NFL draft history for themselves if that is the conclusion you will draw from it. They do not need you to tell them this. Common knowledge.

Personally I think anyone making rankings should be able to do a better job than that.

Regarding the bolded- I'm certainly trying to! I wrote a long 3-part series giving detailed instructions on how to replicate my rankings without me. If everyone followed my instructions, there would be no reason for me to ever actually post any more rookie rankings. And I'm okay with that. I don't pretend that I have some sort of mystical skill that everyone else lacks, and it's this magical gift that allows me to consistently outperform them. There's nothing really secret or magic about my methodology, it's just a series of best practices built on a foundation of common sense and applied with rigorous consistency designed to maximize expected value. There are some interesting insights that I don't think the average fantasy football owner is going to come up with on his own, but once those insights are explained, creating rookie rankings becomes a relatively mundane affair. Like the Oakland A's in baseball, Billy Beane was able to get ahead based on the simple insight that the market was undervaluing OBP, but once that insight was known, any participant in the marketplace was free to adapt and incorporate that new information until OBP was appropriately priced again. Once explained, what I'm doing is something that literally anyone could do.

Of course, just because literally anyone can do something doesn't mean literally everyone does do something. Just looking at the response to my articles, and looking at the dynasty rankings I see cropping up everywhere, I can say that my job is probably pretty safe for the time being. If the tide turns at some point and the market reacts to the inefficiency I'm pointing out (people underrated the value of draft position), then that just means I'm going to need to work hard to find new inefficiencies to exploit or else, like you said, find myself out of a job. And, like I said, I'm okay with that. From where I sit, "find inefficiency, explain inefficiency, wait until inefficiency is corrected, repeat" seems like a much more useful way for a fantasy football expert, (a term I'm still not super-comfortable with, but I have to acknowledge outside perceptions here), to spend his time than simply spitting out a list of magical voodoo rankings and then relying on selective memory and general unaccountability to prevent them from ever coming under closer scrutiny.

 

[Biabreakable]

2: How many undrafted players made teams?

What if I told you that two rounds' worth of undrafted players made teams. Would you believe me? There are 32 picks in every round, which makes 64 players over two rounds. As of Sunday, there are 64 undrafted rookies on 53-man rosters. Somebody really needs to look at a draft process which led all 32 teams to skip these 64 men who went into camp with very little chance of earning a job.

Of course, there were plenty of players from the "big" schools on the undrafted list who made it, but plenty of small-school players are on active rosters, too. Players from Columbia, Lehigh, Valdosta State, Saginaw Valley, Idaho, Middle Tennessee, Grand Valley, Montana State, Alabama State and Stephen F. Austin made teams.

College scouting directors need to do a better job of digging out the draftable players around the country. They need to go back and look at why they passed on many of these players. Take a look at the sixth and seventh rounds of last year's draft. There were 86 players selected in those two rounds with all the compensatory picks and 44 of those players are on active rosters. That's 20 fewer than the undrafted men.

Look no further than the Green Bay Packers, who will start four former undrafted players. Center Evan Dietrich-Smith, fullback John Kuhn, and defensive backs M.D. Jennings and Sam Shields all were ignored in the draft.

3: What positions do most undrafted players occupy?

Here's a breakdown by position of where the undrafted players came from to make teams. Take a look at the number of undrafted linebackers to make teams. Quarterbacks (3), running backs (5), tight ends (4), wide receivers (3), guards (3), tackles (5), fullbacks (1), defensive ends (7), defensive tackles (4), linebackers (15), safeties (6), cornerbacks (6) and long snappers (2).

4: What teams got the most from the undrafted group?

You can always make the case that poor teams provide an easier road for undrafted players. So a team like Jacksonville, with four undrafted rookies, isn't a big surprise.

But what about the Saints (5), Texans (4), Falcons (3) and Seahawks (3)?

I have to give Falcons GM Thomas Dimitroff lots of credit for identifying his three undrafted rookies to make the team: right tackle Ryan Schrader (Valdosta State), LT Terren Jones(Alabama State) and linebacker Joplo Bartu (Texas State). That's a great example of finding talent.

5: How many players were on injured reserve?

Last week, I pointed out that there were already 125 players on injured reserve with one preseason game to go. Last year, on Sept. 1, there were 82 players on injured reserve. This year, the number is 141. A rule change allows players more free time in the spring because they supposedly need the rest. So we practice half the amount of time we used to practice, spending more time in meetings and walk-thrus. That total -- 141 -- on injured reserve is almost three football teams' worth of men being paid yet unable to play this season.

It's too early to conclude if the new system is better, but it sure is starting to look like there is reason for concern.

http://www.cbssports...l-rosters-at-53

 

[Biabreakable]

Mainly what I take issue with is the complete dismissal of players who are drafted after round 4. If that isn't what you are doing then fine. I think it is useful to consider all possible players as potentially valuable, because they can be.

The method that I use is not forgetting pre NFL draft rankings of key players. If the NFL draft disagrees, I do adjust but I do not just forget the player has been considered very good in the past because the NFL didn't draft that player high enough. Similarly if a UDFA makes the final 53 that player is more valuable in my opinion than a player who was drafted higher than they were that didn't make it. Especially if I liked that player during the pre NFL draft process.

Aaron Dobson was a player the Patriots liked from interviews with him in 2012. Then when they met with him in 2013 and he remembered many of the plays and things they talked about the year before, that was part of why they decided to pick him. Teams have long term plans and evaluations on players, even the undrafted ones, like Kenbrell Thompkins.

 

[EBF]

Mainly what I take issue with is the complete dismissal of players who are drafted after round 4.

Yea, nobody is saying that. Some of those guys are going to work out and that's why you need to keep tabs on them and keep your finger on the waiver trigger.

That doesn't change the fact that, all else being equal, late picks are far less likely to become viable long term starters than early picks.

What you're arguing against = longshots never pan out.

What people are actually saying = longshots pan out less frequently than early picks.

I don't understand the controversy here. Nobody is saying that late NFL draft picks are worthless. However, in a typical 3-4 round rookie draft you're likely going to have strong enough options throughout that you shouldn't be forced to take a 5th-7th round NFL draft prospect.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Vintage EBF. It is all about draft pedigree - it pretty much starts and ends there. As you mentioned, no point in looking any further as the mindset is that one will be right 95% of the time anyway (which gives you all kind of free time to do other things besides taking a look or another look at what most people consider marginal players).

Well I think we know why they do this also. It creates a built in excuse for when these players fail. Then they can just say "well the NFL drafted him in round 2. Not my fault they were wrong." Then they also do not need to do any hard analysis and stick their neck out for players who have lower odds of making it. I think the motivation for this is more about self preservation of reputation than actual hard analysis. That is what makes me angry.

The flip side of this is people who stick their neck out on every player then claim credit for it when one of those hundred guys does pan out.

We've both been around for a while. Do I strike you as someone who seeks to duck accountability when he's wrong? Do I strike you as someone who is afraid to go out on a limb? Do you not remember me arguing for two years that Vincent Jackson was a top-5 dynasty receiver? Do you not remember me arguing that Ron Dayne was going to win the starting RB job in Denver and be a top-12 fantasy RB? Do you not remember the years where I was the driver on the Devin Hester bandwagon? Over my 10 years here, have I come across as someone more concerned with preserving my reputation than taking a stand?

If I wanted to preserve my reputation, I sure picked a crappy way to go about it. I've got 10,000+ posts worth of posting history chronicling my every mistake. I'm the guy who, while at DynastyRankings.net, became the only dynasty ranker on the internet to actually preserve a copy of his rankings archives so that people could look back and see how I had players ranked years ago. They originally launched the site without preserving rankings archives, and I specifically requested the change because I believe in accountability, in allowing the consumer to judge me on my actual merits rather than simply being forced to take my claims at face value. If you want to know how I had a player ranked for every single week of the 2010 season, those archives are still there, just waiting to be accessed. If you want to preserve your reputation, keeping archives is a pretty bad way to do it- the current system employed by every other rankings outfit is far preferable, because your mistakes disappear down the memory hole as soon as you correct them. If you want to preserve your reputation, you don't point people to articles like these. I don't know if I have a reputation for always being right, or for usually being right. If I do, I don't want it, and I certainly don't deserve it. I don't really know if I'm right more or less often than the other so-called experts in the field (this is one area that would be much easier to address if people actually... you know... kept rankings archives). I know we do not get to choose our reputations, but I would hope that if I do have a reputation, it would be as someone who is passionate about fantasy football and who devotes large amounts of time, effort, and thought to finding market inefficiencies, maximizing value, and creating systems that set owners up for success. I would hope that I have a reputation for honesty, integrity, and transparency.

I get that you're angry, but like I said, you're getting mad over a straw man. I'm not looking to take the easy way out. I'm not looking to shield myself from criticism. On the contrary, I put a lot of time and effort into coming up with my current system, and I've opened myself to a lot of criticism by taking everyone behind the scenes to see how I make the sausage. In fact, what exactly is happening right now? I posted how I rank players, and I received criticism over it. Some people now think less of me and my rankings as a result. I'm okay with that, because I believe that the system I use right now allows me to produce the best rankings I am currently capable of producing, and if I ever stopped believing that, I would replace it with another system that did.

 

[Biabreakable]

Mainly what I take issue with is the complete dismissal of players who are drafted after round 4.

Yea, nobody is saying that. Some of those guys are going to work out and that's why you need to keep tabs on them and keep your finger on the waiver trigger.

That doesn't change the fact that, all else being equal, late picks are far less likely to become viable long term starters than early picks.

What you're arguing against = longshots never pan out.

What people are actually saying = longshots pan out less frequently than early picks.

I don't understand the controversy here. Nobody is saying that late NFL draft picks are worthless. However, in a typical 3-4 round rookie draft you're likely going to have strong enough options throughout that you shouldn't be forced to take a 5th-7th round NFL draft prospect.

Well yes you did. Kind of where I got spun up about this.

I realize I am totally playing devils advocate here. I know the weight of data is very much in favor of high draft picks.

Opportunity is the other factor, when you evaluate a teams needs. If they have a need at a position and no other player is better suited to fill it than a late pick or UFDA, I think that player has more value due to opportunity. A lot of them turn out to be duds anyways. But then so do a lot of high draft picks.

 

[Adam Harstad]

5 146 DET Jerome Felton FB 22

5 163 SEA Owen Schmitt FB 23
7 227 DEN Peyton Hillis FB 22

5 137 MIN John David BootyQB
5 156 PIT Dennis Dixon QB 23
5 160 TAM Josh Johnson QB 22
5 162 NYJ Erik Ainge QB 22
6 186 WAS Colt Brennan QB 25
6 198 NYG Andre Woodson QB 24
7 209 GNB Matt Flynn QB 23 - sort of had trade value after Green Bay traded him.
7 223 HOU Alex Brink QB 23

5 139 DEN Ryan Torain RB 22 - Started for some games.
5 149 ARI Tim Hightower RB 22 - Started for some games.
5 166 SDG Marcus Thomas RB 24
6 172 ATL Thomas Brown RB 22
6 176 MIA Jalen Parmele RB 22
6 179 BUF Xavier Omon RB 23
6 202 IND Mike Hart RB 22
6 204 MIA Lex Hilliard RB 24
7 213 JAXChauncey Washington RB 23
7 233 SEA Justin Forsett RB 22 - Had some games where he might have been a starter for you.
7 238 TAM Cory Boyd RB 23
7 240 BAL Allen Patrick RB 24

5 141 CAR Gary Barnidge TE 23
5 158 CHI Kellen Davis TE 22
6 196 IND Tom Santi TE 22
6 207 CIN Matt Sherry TE 23
7 232 ATL Keith Zinger TE 22
7 239 KAN Mike Merritt TE 24

5 136 DET Kenneth Moore WR 23
5 153 NWE Matt Slater WR 23
6 171 NYJ Marcus Henry WR 22
6 174 SFO Josh Morgan WR 23 - Has been a starter at times.
6 182 KAN Kevin Robinson WR 23 .
6 191 CLE Paul Hubbard WR 23
6 193 MIN Jaymar Johnson WR 24
6 205 IND Pierre Garcon WR 22 - Is a starter/flex right now
7 215 BAL Justin Harper WR 23
7 217 GNB Brett Swain WR 23
7 224 BUF Steve Johnson WR 21
7 226 OAK Chaz Schilens WR 22
7 237 NOR Adrian ArringtonWR 22
7 246 CIN Mario Urrutia WR 22
7 248 CHI Marcus Monk WR 22

5 151 NYG Rhett Bomar QB 24
5 171 SFO Nate Davis QB 22
6 174 DEN Tom Brandstater QB 24
6 178 SEA Mike Teel QB 23
6 196 STL Keith Null QB 24
6 201 IND Curtis Painter QB 24

5 145 GNB Quinn Johnson RB 23
5 169 PIT Frank Summers RB 24
5 173 TEN Javon Ringer RB 22
6 185 BAL Cedric Peerman RB 22
6 192 DET Aaron Brown RB 23
6 195 CLE James Davis RB 23
6 209 CIN Bernard Scott RB 25 - had opportunity but failed.
7 211 STL Chris Ogbonnaya RB 23
7 212 KAN Javarris WilliamsRB 23
7 215 CIN Fui Vakapuna RB 25
7 221 WAS Eddie Williams RB 22
7 240 ARI LaRod Stephens-HowlingRB22 - used briefly.
7 250 JAX Rashad Jennings RB 24 - has had chances but failed.

5 149 BAL Davon Drew TE 23
5 152 HOU James Casey TE 25 - Currently with the Eagles
5 153 PHI Cornelius IngramTE 24
5 161 MIA John Nalbone TE 23
6 180 JAX Zach Miller TE 24 - Starter in Seattle? or is this another one?
6 184 SFO Bear Pascoe TE 23
6 202 OAK Brandon Myers TE 24 - current starter in NY
6 208 DAL John Phillips TE 22
7 237 KAN Jake O'Connell TE 23
7 241 PIT David Johnson TE 22
7 248 SEA Cameron Morrah TE 22
7 255 DET Dan Gronkowski TE 24

5 140 CHI Johnny Knox WR 22
5 141 DEN Kenny McKinley WR 22
5 144 JAX Jarett Dillard WR 23
5 160 STL Brooks Foster WR 23
6 175 KAN Quinten LawrenceWR 25 .
6 194 PHI Brandon Gibson WR 22
6 206 TEN Dominique EdisonWR 23
7 224 SDG Demetrius Byrd WR
7 229 DAL Manuel Johnson WR 22
7 232 NWE Julian Edelman WR 23
7 233 TAM Sammie StroughterWR 23
7 243 WAS Marko Mitchell WR 24
7 251 CHI Derek Kinder WR
7 252 CIN Freddie Brown WR
7 253 JAX Tiquan UnderwoodWR 22

5 155 ARI John Skelton QB 22 - Horrible disaster as starter.
5 168 SDG Jonathan CromptonQB 23
6 176 TEN Rusty Smith QB 23
6 181 CHI Dan LeFevour QB 23
6 204 CAR Tony Pike QB 24
7 209 BUF Levi Brown QB 23
7 239 NOR Sean Canfield QB 24
7 250 NWE Zac Robinson QB 24

5 139 NYJ John Conner RB 23
6 173 SFO Anthony Dixon RB 23
6 174 WAS Dennis Morris RB
6 180 JAX Deji Karim RB 23
6 188 PIT Jonathan Dwyer RB 21 - Had some chances. Might again at some point.
6 193 GNB James Starks RB 24 - Did pretty well yesterday.
6 200 PHI Charles Scott RB
7 237 MIN Ryan D'Imperio RB 23

5 132 STL Michael Hoomanawanui TE
5 154 GNB Andrew Quarless TE 21
5 162 IND Brody Eldridge TE 23
6 170 STL Fendi Onobun TE 23
6 182 SFO Nate Byham TE 22
6 185 SEA Anthony McCoy TE 22
7 214 MIN Mickey Shuler TE 23
7 233 ARI Jim Dray TE 23 - Had I think 5 receptions yesterday
7 235 SDG Dedrick Epps TE 22
7 245 SEA Jameson Konz TE 24

5 156 BAL David Reed WR 23
5 159 PHI Riley Cooper WR 23 - Plays for Eagles.
5 165 ATL Kerry Meier WR 23
6 177 CLE Carlton MitchellWR 22
6 191 CIN Dezmon Briscoe WR 21
6 195 PIT Antonio Brown WR 24 - Main WR for Steelers
6 197 HOU Trindon HollidayWR 24
6 198 CAR David Gettis WR 23 - Has had some games.
6 199 MIN Joe Webb WR 23 - Played QB badly.
6 206 SFO Kyle Williams WR 22
7 219 WAS Terrence Austin WR 22
7 222 TEN Marc Mariani WR 23
7 227 HOU Dorin Dickerson WR 22
7 255 DET Tim Toone WR 25

Serious question: how many of these guys, with the full benefit of hindsight, would be worth 2nd round dynasty rookie picks? If you had a 2nd round pick and your choice right now was between one of these guys (assuming that their career was going to turn out exactly like it did, and you knew in advance just how that would be), or "door #2" (say, Justin Hunter, Aaron Dobson, Travis Kelce, or Zach Ertz, to name four guys with a mid-2nd ADP this year)... how many of those guys would you take over one of the Hunter/Dobson/Kelce/Ertz quartet?

I'm also going to add the rule that you have to hold the player in question for his entire career, to rule out someone saying "I'd draft Matt Flynn and then trade him after his 6-TD game", for example. We want a comparison of which of these guys were actually worth 2nd round picks, not which of these guys were actually busts, but you could have conned one of your leaguemates into overpaying for them.

With those rules, I would take the following players over Hunter/Dobson/Kelce/Ertz:

Peyton Hillis

Tim Hightower (PPR only)

Pierre Garcon

Stevie Johnson

Antonio Brown

I would also briefly consider, but likely reject, the following:

Brandon Myers (PPR only)

Johnnie Knox (non-PPR only)

So that's 5 players out of 130, or less than 4%. In non-PPR, it's 4 out of 130, or less than 3%. To this point in their careers, those five players have accounted for about 261 points of VBD combined (obviously several of them will continue to add to that total in coming years), so the EV of a 5th round pick or later over the three years in question is just 2 VBD.

Most importantly... yes, a system based on draft position would have dismissed those five players as unworthy of being drafted. The important question, though, is what system wouldn't have dismissed those five players as unworthy of being drafted? If you aren't going to anchor on draft position because it'll cause you to miss out on Antonio Brown, what is this better system you're going to use that will identify Antonio Brown as someone worth drafting? What system is going to lead to you spending a rookie pick on the 3rd string RB from Arkansas who got drafted in the 7th round to play fullback for a franchise that already has 4 RBs under contract? What system would have led you to take Pierre Garcon, the unknown from tiny Mount Union, over Jaymar Jackson, the unknown from tiny Jackson State who was drafted right before him in the 6th, to say nothing of taking Garcon over all of the other guys going ahead of him? My system never would have recognized Antonio Brown, but you know who else would have failed to recognize Antonio Brown? EVERYONE ELSE; Antonio Brown was drafted, on average, as the 67th rookie off the board in 2010. He was a 6th round pick in dynasty drafts. Hell, by the time I get into the 6th round, I'm grabbing guys who were going in the 5th round or later of the NFL draft, too!

So yes, sometimes late players become stars, and my system will not recognize those guys ahead of time. Again, the question stands: what system will? When you see for yourself just how ridiculously small the chances really are, and when you see that the guys who broke out were never the guys anybody expected, how can you defend speculating on 5th+ round NFL draft picks in the 2nd round of dynasty rookie drafts? Even in the 3rd round they're usually a stretch- I'd prefer Marquise Goodwin, Knile Davis, and Jordan Reed to the overwhelming majority of those known scrubs, too.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Actually people are more likely to be giving up EV by holding players who were drafted in the 1st 3-4 rounds much longer than they will later picks, if they drafted those later picks at all.

You are not likely to hold a dud who was a later NFL pick as you are to hold a dud who was a 1st round NFL pick.

So? That's a problem with their add/drop process, not their draft process. It should be treated as such. If people are bad at deciding when to cut bait, the solution is not to draft less talented players to make cutting bait easier.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

5 146 DET Jerome Felton FB 22

5 163 SEA Owen Schmitt FB 23
7 227 DEN Peyton Hillis FB 22

5 137 MIN John David BootyQB
5 156 PIT Dennis Dixon QB 23
5 160 TAM Josh Johnson QB 22
5 162 NYJ Erik Ainge QB 22
6 186 WAS Colt Brennan QB 25
6 198 NYG Andre Woodson QB 24
7 209 GNB Matt Flynn QB 23 - sort of had trade value after Green Bay traded him.
7 223 HOU Alex Brink QB 23

5 139 DEN Ryan Torain RB 22 - Started for some games.
5 149 ARI Tim Hightower RB 22 - Started for some games.
5 166 SDG Marcus Thomas RB 24
6 172 ATL Thomas Brown RB 22
6 176 MIA Jalen Parmele RB 22
6 179 BUF Xavier Omon RB 23
6 202 IND Mike Hart RB 22
6 204 MIA Lex Hilliard RB 24
7 213 JAXChauncey Washington RB 23
7 233 SEA Justin Forsett RB 22 - Had some games where he might have been a starter for you.
7 238 TAM Cory Boyd RB 23
7 240 BAL Allen Patrick RB 24

5 141 CAR Gary Barnidge TE 23
5 158 CHI Kellen Davis TE 22
6 196 IND Tom Santi TE 22
6 207 CIN Matt Sherry TE 23
7 232 ATL Keith Zinger TE 22
7 239 KAN Mike Merritt TE 24

5 136 DET Kenneth Moore WR 23
5 153 NWE Matt Slater WR 23
6 171 NYJ Marcus Henry WR 22
6 174 SFO Josh Morgan WR 23 - Has been a starter at times.
6 182 KAN Kevin Robinson WR 23 .
6 191 CLE Paul Hubbard WR 23
6 193 MIN Jaymar Johnson WR 24
6 205 IND Pierre Garcon WR 22 - Is a starter/flex right now
7 215 BAL Justin Harper WR 23
7 217 GNB Brett Swain WR 23
7 224 BUF Steve Johnson WR 21
7 226 OAK Chaz Schilens WR 22
7 237 NOR Adrian ArringtonWR 22
7 246 CIN Mario Urrutia WR 22
7 248 CHI Marcus Monk WR 22

5 151 NYG Rhett Bomar QB 24
5 171 SFO Nate Davis QB 22
6 174 DEN Tom Brandstater QB 24
6 178 SEA Mike Teel QB 23
6 196 STL Keith Null QB 24
6 201 IND Curtis Painter QB 24

5 145 GNB Quinn Johnson RB 23
5 169 PIT Frank Summers RB 24
5 173 TEN Javon Ringer RB 22
6 185 BAL Cedric Peerman RB 22
6 192 DET Aaron Brown RB 23
6 195 CLE James Davis RB 23
6 209 CIN Bernard Scott RB 25 - had opportunity but failed.
7 211 STL Chris Ogbonnaya RB 23
7 212 KAN Javarris WilliamsRB 23
7 215 CIN Fui Vakapuna RB 25
7 221 WAS Eddie Williams RB 22
7 240 ARI LaRod Stephens-HowlingRB22 - used briefly.
7 250 JAX Rashad Jennings RB 24 - has had chances but failed.

5 149 BAL Davon Drew TE 23
5 152 HOU James Casey TE 25 - Currently with the Eagles
5 153 PHI Cornelius IngramTE 24
5 161 MIA John Nalbone TE 23
6 180 JAX Zach Miller TE 24 - Starter in Seattle? or is this another one?
6 184 SFO Bear Pascoe TE 23
6 202 OAK Brandon Myers TE 24 - current starter in NY
6 208 DAL John Phillips TE 22
7 237 KAN Jake O'Connell TE 23
7 241 PIT David Johnson TE 22
7 248 SEA Cameron Morrah TE 22
7 255 DET Dan Gronkowski TE 24

5 140 CHI Johnny Knox WR 22
5 141 DEN Kenny McKinley WR 22
5 144 JAX Jarett Dillard WR 23
5 160 STL Brooks Foster WR 23
6 175 KAN Quinten LawrenceWR 25 .
6 194 PHI Brandon Gibson WR 22
6 206 TEN Dominique EdisonWR 23
7 224 SDG Demetrius Byrd WR
7 229 DAL Manuel Johnson WR 22
7 232 NWE Julian Edelman WR 23
7 233 TAM Sammie StroughterWR 23
7 243 WAS Marko Mitchell WR 24
7 251 CHI Derek Kinder WR
7 252 CIN Freddie Brown WR
7 253 JAX Tiquan UnderwoodWR 22

5 155 ARI John Skelton QB 22 - Horrible disaster as starter.
5 168 SDG Jonathan CromptonQB 23
6 176 TEN Rusty Smith QB 23
6 181 CHI Dan LeFevour QB 23
6 204 CAR Tony Pike QB 24
7 209 BUF Levi Brown QB 23
7 239 NOR Sean Canfield QB 24
7 250 NWE Zac Robinson QB 24

5 139 NYJ John Conner RB 23
6 173 SFO Anthony Dixon RB 23
6 174 WAS Dennis Morris RB
6 180 JAX Deji Karim RB 23
6 188 PIT Jonathan Dwyer RB 21 - Had some chances. Might again at some point.
6 193 GNB James Starks RB 24 - Did pretty well yesterday.
6 200 PHI Charles Scott RB
7 237 MIN Ryan D'Imperio RB 23

5 132 STL Michael Hoomanawanui TE
5 154 GNB Andrew Quarless TE 21
5 162 IND Brody Eldridge TE 23
6 170 STL Fendi Onobun TE 23
6 182 SFO Nate Byham TE 22
6 185 SEA Anthony McCoy TE 22
7 214 MIN Mickey Shuler TE 23
7 233 ARI Jim Dray TE 23 - Had I think 5 receptions yesterday
7 235 SDG Dedrick Epps TE 22
7 245 SEA Jameson Konz TE 24

5 156 BAL David Reed WR 23
5 159 PHI Riley Cooper WR 23 - Plays for Eagles.
5 165 ATL Kerry Meier WR 23
6 177 CLE Carlton MitchellWR 22
6 191 CIN Dezmon Briscoe WR 21
6 195 PIT Antonio Brown WR 24 - Main WR for Steelers
6 197 HOU Trindon HollidayWR 24
6 198 CAR David Gettis WR 23 - Has had some games.
6 199 MIN Joe Webb WR 23 - Played QB badly.
6 206 SFO Kyle Williams WR 22
7 219 WAS Terrence Austin WR 22
7 222 TEN Marc Mariani WR 23
7 227 HOU Dorin Dickerson WR 22
7 255 DET Tim Toone WR 25

Serious question: how many of these guys, with the full benefit of hindsight, would be worth 2nd round dynasty rookie picks? If you had a 2nd round pick and your choice right now was between one of these guys (assuming that their career was going to turn out exactly like it did, and you knew in advance just how that would be), or "door #2" (say, Justin Hunter, Aaron Dobson, Travis Kelce, or Zach Ertz, to name four guys with a mid-2nd ADP this year)... how many of those guys would you take over one of the Hunter/Dobson/Kelce/Ertz quartet?

I'm also going to add the rule that you have to hold the player in question for his entire career, to rule out someone saying "I'd draft Matt Flynn and then trade him after his 6-TD game", for example. We want a comparison of which of these guys were actually worth 2nd round picks, not which of these guys were actually busts, but you could have conned one of your leaguemates into overpaying for them.

With those rules, I would take the following players over Hunter/Dobson/Kelce/Ertz:

Peyton Hillis

Tim Hightower (PPR only)

Pierre Garcon

Stevie Johnson

Antonio Brown

I would also briefly consider, but likely reject, the following:

Brandon Myers (PPR only)

Johnnie Knox (non-PPR only)

So that's 5 players out of 130, or less than 4%. In non-PPR, it's 4 out of 130, or less than 3%. To this point in their careers, those five players have accounted for about 261 points of VBD combined (obviously several of them will continue to add to that total in coming years), so the EV of a 5th round pick or later over the three years in question is just 2 VBD.

Most importantly... yes, a system based on draft position would have dismissed those five players as unworthy of being drafted. The important question, though, is what system wouldn't have dismissed those five players as unworthy of being drafted? If you aren't going to anchor on draft position because it'll cause you to miss out on Antonio Brown, what is this better system you're going to use that will identify Antonio Brown as someone worth drafting? What system is going to lead to you spending a rookie pick on the 3rd string RB from Arkansas who got drafted in the 7th round to play fullback for a franchise that already has 4 RBs under contract? What system would have led you to take Pierre Garcon, the unknown from tiny Mount Union, over Jaymar Jackson, the unknown from tiny Jackson State who was drafted right before him in the 6th, to say nothing of taking Garcon over all of the other guys going ahead of him? My system never would have recognized Antonio Brown, but you know who else would have failed to recognize Antonio Brown? EVERYONE ELSE; Antonio Brown was drafted, on average, as the 67th rookie off the board in 2010. He was a 6th round pick in dynasty drafts. Hell, by the time I get into the 6th round, I'm grabbing guys who were going in the 5th round or later of the NFL draft, too!

So yes, sometimes late players become stars, and my system will not recognize those guys ahead of time. Again, the question stands: what system will? When you see for yourself just how ridiculously small the chances really are, and when you see that the guys who broke out were never the guys anybody expected, how can you defend speculating on 5th+ round NFL draft picks in the 2nd round of dynasty rookie drafts? Even in the 3rd round they're usually a stretch- I'd prefer Marquise Goodwin, Knile Davis, and Jordan Reed to the overwhelming majority of those known scrubs, too.

This seems to contradict our DHB vs Chaz Schilens debate from a few years ago. Unless that's classified under the "cut bait" area

 

[renesauz]

Personally....I like people falling in love with 6th and 7th round draft picks and UDFAs...leaves me more room to pick up the 3rd and 4th round picks that seem more likely to contribute.

I acknowledge that the odds of me grabbing a stud aren't much better, but they aren't very good to begin with, and the odds of me finding a piece I can actually USE is much higher.

I'm not ashamed to admit that I'm not a very good talent evaluator, and that I will not deviate TOOOOOO far from the NFL draft. I'm not taking a guy from the NFLs 5th round in a rookie draft 2nd round when there's NFL 3rd rounders still on the board. IN those rookie drafts that go 4 rounds, I might throw the last pick at a late pick/UDFA, but generally there's few players left (aside from an occasional blocking TE or unknown QB clearly destined to back up a safe NFL starter) from before the fifth at that point.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Top Prospects Bad Prospects Non-elite/Risky/Uncertain QB EJ Manuel, BUF RB LeVeon Bell, PIT QB Geno Smith, NYJ RB Christine Michael, SEA RB Montee Ball, DEN TE Travis Kelce, KC 1&2 RB Eddie Lacy, GB TE Vance McDonald, SF TE Zach Ertz, PHI RB Giovani Bernard, CIN WR Aaron Dobson, NE WR Robert Woods, BUF TE Tyler Eifert, CIN WR Cordarrelle Patterson, MIN WR Tavon Austin, STL WR DeAndre Hopkins, HOU WR Justin Hunter, TEN RB Johnathan Franklin, GB QB Matt Barkley, PHI TE Jordan Reed, WAS RB Knile Davis, KC WR Chris Harper, SEA RB Marcus Lattimore, SF 3&4 WR Quinton Patton, SF WR Josh Boyce, NE WR Stedman Bailey, STL WR Keenan Allen, SD WR Markus Wheaton, PIT WR Marquise Goodwin, BUF WR Terrance Williams, DAL 5-7 RB Andre Ellington, ARI RB Zac Stacy, STL RB Denard Robinson, JAX RB Joseph Randle, DAL RB Mike Gillislee, MIA RB Stepfan Taylor, ARI WR Kenny Stills, NO UDFA RB C.J. Anderson, DEN WR Kenbrell Thompkins, NE QB Tyler Bray, KCC WR Marlon Brown, BAL TE Zack Sudfeld, NE WR Da'Rick Rodgers, BUFFor reference. Here are my measurables-only talent evaluations organized by rounds of the draft and quality of prospect. The pre-draft evaluations were updated to reflect my understanding of what the NFL draft suggested about known medical or character concerns, but the basic evaluation wasn't changed.

 

[squistion]

Mainly what I take issue with is the complete dismissal of players who are drafted after round 4.

Yea, nobody is saying that.

Nobody but you.

Don't bother with 5th+ round NFL draft picks.

Saying "Don't bother" would seem to be a complete dismissal.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Couple notes on that chart... was worried if I edited I'd lose my formatting.

Manuel belongs in the risky column. I do think that being drafted in the first round takes him out of that group into the top prospects column, but this chart doesn't reflect post-draft moves unless they have to do with potential information gained from the actual NFL draft about character or medical concerns: Lattimore+, K Davis+, C Michael+, Bray(-), Rodgers(-).

Barkley was moved to the risky column based on my belief that the draft indicated concerns about his arm strength -- something I have no way of measuring -- rather than medical or character concerns.

UDFAs Anderson, Brown, Thompkins and Sudfeld weren't evaluated until after the draft.

 

[deadlyrange0321]

What is the consensus on Marshall's ranking? I had droppped him a few slots myself due to concerns about his health, but Cutler looks great in this new offense and is still targeting Marshall at a high level. At 29yrs old, Marshall is still young enough for a WR to keep his value for the next 3-4 years.

I have him at WR6.

What does everyone else think?

 

[thriftyrocker]

Actually people are more likely to be giving up EV by holding players who were drafted in the 1st 3-4 rounds much longer than they will later picks, if they drafted those later picks at all.

You are not likely to hold a dud who was a later NFL pick as you are to hold a dud who was a 1st round NFL pick.

So? That's a problem with their add/drop process, not their draft process. It should be treated as such. If people are bad at deciding when to cut bait, the solution is not to draft less talented players to make cutting bait easier.

Really its not. A 3rd or 4th round pick is going to make the team. Even if you follow twitter feeds of beat reporters religiously its hard to know why a 3rd or 4th round pick isn't getting reps. Why are Boyce and Bailey barely on the field behind Dobson and Pettis? Players from the 6th-UDFA are worse may be worse because of talent level but they also may be worse just due to being raw or being risky. Their upside can be just as high. Rogers or Charles Johnson. Brice Butler. Would I rather have generic 3rd round pick than generic 7th round pick? Yeah sure. But it is not always that easy. I think Bia is correct in that you have to incorporate immediacy into your rookie picks. Easy to fall in love with a guy like Bailey or Patton (more so pre-Crabchilles) but you have to appreciate the price you are paying to select them. If you took Rogers over Bailey it's a heckuva lot easier to drop him now for Edelman, Royal, Todman, or someone else with short term or out of nowhere value.

 

[thriftyrocker]

What is the consensus on Marshall's ranking? I had droppped him a few slots myself due to concerns about his health, but Cutler looks great in this new offense and is still targeting Marshall at a high level. At 29yrs old, Marshall is still young enough for a WR to keep his value for the next 3-4 years.

Last year was a high water mark for him, but it's hard not to see him continue to do great. Definitely well below the top 5 and if you can add something to get top 5 you should do that now and not wait. Would probably take Cobb and Cruz over him as well.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Any thoughts on buying high on Gio? What RBs would it take to get him after a 2 TD week where he looked great but only had 9 touches?

 

[deadlyrange0321]

What is the consensus on Marshall's ranking? I had droppped him a few slots myself due to concerns about his health, but Cutler looks great in this new offense and is still targeting Marshall at a high level. At 29yrs old, Marshall is still young enough for a WR to keep his value for the next 3-4 years.

Last year was a high water mark for him, but it's hard not to see him continue to do great. Definitely well below the top 5 and if you can add something to get top 5 you should do that now and not wait. Would probably take Cobb and Cruz over him as well.

I agree with this and I'm consistently flipping him and Fitzgerald. Hard to say which one I prefer, although I do believe that Fitz is the better player, his QB situation isn't as settled. (Although, I do believe Palmer is MASSIVE upgrade)

I really do not believe Marshall's value will ever get any higher. So, if you are planning on selling, now would probably be the appropriate time.

 

[Adam Harstad]

This seems to contradict our DHB vs Chaz Schilens debate from a few years ago. Unless that's classified under the "cut bait" area

I was wrong in our DHB vs. Schilens debate a few years ago. DHB hasn't been great shakes, but he's been a lot more useful than Schilens. Even ignoring the outcome, I was engaging in bad process.

Thankfully, fantasy football gives us plenty of chances to learn from past mistakes and improve our processes. This is why honest self-evaluation is so important, so we can catch these errors in our reasoning and correct them before they become too entrenched.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Nobody but you.

Don't bother with 5th+ round NFL draft picks.

Saying "Don't bother" would seem to be a complete dismissal.

He's clarified several times that he was saying "don't bother drafting them in the 3rd and 4th because you can always add them off of waivers later", not "don't bother ever rostering them for any reason whatsoever no matter what".

 

[Adam Harstad]

Actually people are more likely to be giving up EV by holding players who were drafted in the 1st 3-4 rounds much longer than they will later picks, if they drafted those later picks at all.

You are not likely to hold a dud who was a later NFL pick as you are to hold a dud who was a 1st round NFL pick.

So? That's a problem with their add/drop process, not their draft process. It should be treated as such. If people are bad at deciding when to cut bait, the solution is not to draft less talented players to make cutting bait easier.

Really its not. A 3rd or 4th round pick is going to make the team. Even if you follow twitter feeds of beat reporters religiously its hard to know why a 3rd or 4th round pick isn't getting reps. Why are Boyce and Bailey barely on the field behind Dobson and Pettis? Players from the 6th-UDFA are worse may be worse because of talent level but they also may be worse just due to being raw or being risky. Their upside can be just as high. Rogers or Charles Johnson. Brice Butler. Would I rather have generic 3rd round pick than generic 7th round pick? Yeah sure. But it is not always that easy. I think Bia is correct in that you have to incorporate immediacy into your rookie picks. Easy to fall in love with a guy like Bailey or Patton (more so pre-Crabchilles) but you have to appreciate the price you are paying to select them. If you took Rogers over Bailey it's a heckuva lot easier to drop him now for Edelman, Royal, Todman, or someone else with short term or out of nowhere value.

I'm a believer in incorporating urgency, but you don't know what late-round players are going to possess urgency in May and June. Nobody thought we'd get a chance to find out who Kenbrell Thompkins and Marlon Brown were within the first couple of weeks of the season.

If it's late August and a 6th rounder is lighting up camps or preseason, or an undrafted player has earned a starting job, then that is absolutely important information that needs to be accounted for. I don't have a problem with burning a 2nd round pick on Kenbrell Thompkins once he's the talk of New England in August, or spending a late 1st on Alfred Morris once Mike Shanahan names him the opening day starter. That's classic Bayesian reasoning- you have to update your beliefs to reflect new information.

I don't think anyone is talking about situations like that, though- where a late-round player has absolutely and unequivocally already played himself into relevance. I'm talking about rookie drafts in May and June where people are adding guys like Zac Stacy out of SPECULATION that he'll play himself into relevance. That's a bad bet, in my opinion.

Da'Rick Rogers is just as capable of making a roster but barely seeing the field as Stedman Bailey. He offered no immediacy advantage, except insofar as he was more likely to suck immediately. "Draft suckier players so you'll know they suck sooner" is not a good strategy in rookie drafts.

 

[Adam Harstad]

What is the consensus on Marshall's ranking? I had droppped him a few slots myself due to concerns about his health, but Cutler looks great in this new offense and is still targeting Marshall at a high level. At 29yrs old, Marshall is still young enough for a WR to keep his value for the next 3-4 years.

Last year was a high water mark for him, but it's hard not to see him continue to do great. Definitely well below the top 5 and if you can add something to get top 5 you should do that now and not wait. Would probably take Cobb and Cruz over him as well.

I agree with this and I'm consistently flipping him and Fitzgerald. Hard to say which one I prefer, although I do believe that Fitz is the better player, his QB situation isn't as settled. (Although, I do believe Palmer is MASSIVE upgrade)

I really do not believe Marshall's value will ever get any higher. So, if you are planning on selling, now would probably be the appropriate time.

Of course Marshall's value won't get any higher. He's an extremely productive player who has already reached his peak and is facing the downslope of his career. Andre Johnson's value will never get any higher. Calvin Johnson's value will never get any higher. Adrian Peterson's trade value will never get any higher. Honestly, C.J. Spiller and Jamaal Charles will probably never have more value than they do today, either. Those guys are at the downslope point of their career, and their trade value should be in steady decline for the next several years.

This is also not important when deciding whether you should trade these players. If you believe that Marshall's perceived value (or trade value) is greater than his actual value (or the number of points he'll put in your lineup) over a certain window, then you should trade him. If you don't, then you should not. Marshall's value will be in steady decline from here on out, but the huge numbers he's putting up for you and the games he's helping you win will help make that decline more bearable.

 

[thriftyrocker]

I'm talking about rookie drafts in May and June where people are adding guys like Zac Stacy out of SPECULATION that he'll play himself into relevance. That's a bad bet, in my opinion.

Stacy was a special case because you had to spend a top 15 pick on him, in a weak class. Other than Eifert/Michael it was a decent gamble though. Sometimes you hope for a straight and get garbage.

Of course one of the reasons Stacy was vaulted so high was that the situation was open, and it remains open. Anyone who bet on the STL backfield got garbage, so far, not just Stacy.

Let's say you wanted to give up on Stacy, what is the exit value? It's still decent. Seems you could get Jordan Reed for him. You can still get Stedman Bailey or Justin Hunter. If you passed on Eifert or Michael for him, that ship has sailed, but he still carries "unproven prospect" value similar to most of this year's 2nd and 3rd rounders.

Is it a bad bet if the house wins? Assuming you didn't pass on Eifert or Michael, the house kinda won this year.

 

[EBF]

Not at all. Stacy couldn't even beat out Pead and Richardson. Barring some surprise late surge, he looks headed for the scrap heap. No sensible owner who drafted Hunter/Wheaton/Woods/Dobson/Manuel/Kelce/Ertz will trade one of those guys for Stacy right now. It would probably be really hard to get a future 2nd for him either. You might fetch a future 3rd if you're lucky, and that's probably about where he should've been valued in the first place.

The fact that probably 75% of the rookies with an ADP in the 12-24 range will ultimately become crap doesn't change the fact that taking Stacy ahead of players like Michael, Hunter, Woods, and Manuel was a pretty big blunder. It is tough to find a solid NFL starter in the 2nd round of your rookie draft regardless, but you make it tougher when you blatantly disregard the odds and overpay for a 1-in-20 gamble like Stacy or Rogers.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Manuel is another name, but not the others. A lot of those guys are albatross level. I mean I like some of them too but most of them need a lot to break their way just to be WR3 value. To break even with what you spent on them.

"Couldn't even beat out" has little meaning to me. You use that phrase a lot, but there's too much we don't know to rely on depth chart as the sole piece of evidence. Fasano beat out Kelce. I mean he couldn't even beat some journeyman TE.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I'm talking about rookie drafts in May and June

where people are adding guys like Zac Stacy out of SPECULATION that he'll play himself into relevance. That's a bad bet, in my opinion.

Stacy was a special case because you had to spend a top 15 pick on him, in a weak class. Other than Eifert/Michael it was a decent gamble though. Sometimes you hope for a straight and get garbage.

Of course one of the reasons Stacy was vaulted so high was that the situation was open, and it remains open. Anyone who bet on the STL backfield got garbage, so far, not just Stacy.

Let's say you wanted to give up on Stacy, what is the exit value? It's still decent. Seems you could get Jordan Reed for him. You can still get Stedman Bailey or Justin Hunter. If you passed on Eifert or Michael for him, that ship has sailed, but he still carries "unproven prospect" value similar to most of this year's 2nd and 3rd rounders.

Is it a bad bet if the house wins? Assuming you didn't pass on Eifert or Michael, the house kinda won this year.

You're way over-rating Zac Stacy's value IMO. I own a few of those guys you mention and wouldn't even consider moving any of them for Stacy. Depending on the league, I might or might not even pick Stacy up if he was sitting on waivers.

 

[thriftyrocker]

The fact that probably 75% of the rookies with an ADP in the 12-24 range will ultimately become crap doesn't change the fact that taking Stacy ahead of players like Michael, Hunter, Woods, and Manuel was a pretty big blunder.

It was a bigger mistake to take Hunter/Woods over Michael than to take Stacy over Hunter/Woods.

You're way over-rating Zac Stacy's value IMO. I own a few of those guys you mention and wouldn't even consider moving any of them for Stacy. Depending on the league, I might or might not even pick Stacy up if he was sitting on waivers.

IMO I'm under-rating the WR. They're all throw ins who don't move the needle much.

 

[cstu]

What is the consensus on Marshall's ranking? I had droppped him a few slots myself due to concerns about his health, but Cutler looks great in this new offense and is still targeting Marshall at a high level. At 29yrs old, Marshall is still young enough for a WR to keep his value for the next 3-4 years.

Last year was a high water mark for him, but it's hard not to see him continue to do great. Definitely well below the top 5 and if you can add something to get top 5 you should do that now and not wait. Would probably take Cobb and Cruz over him as well.

I agree with this and I'm consistently flipping him and Fitzgerald. Hard to say which one I prefer, although I do believe that Fitz is the better player, his QB situation isn't as settled. (Although, I do believe Palmer is MASSIVE upgrade)

I really do not believe Marshall's value will ever get any higher. So, if you are planning on selling, now would probably be the appropriate time.

I have Marshall higher since he's in a best situation right now. What separates them for me is Fitz' dedication to the game and he seems to really want to go down as one of the all-time bests. Him playing as long as Reggie Wayne won't surprise me.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

You're way over-rating Zac Stacy's value IMO. I own a few of those guys you mention and wouldn't even consider moving any of them for Stacy. Depending on the league, I might or might not even pick Stacy up if he was sitting on waivers.

They're all throw ins who don't move the needle much.

I agree with this in general, but in my experience most dynasty owners don't. A young 1st round WR will hold decent trade value for years despite not doing much with people that liked him in the first place. A guy like Stacy becomes utterly worthless the minute his team drafts another RB, brings in a mediocre free agent, or Richardson / Pead have a 100 yard game. If he's not worthless already.

I also think it's a significant strike against him that he hasn't managed anything in the face of such mediocre competition -- RB is IMO the easiest skill position to make an instant impact by far. But YMMV.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Already see Justin Hunter getting treated like a bust though. Not your typical year in that early 2nds were mountain dew or clam juice. "Gotta take someone" and "no one would trade me" picks.

Really I think WR learning curve is old thinking. Stephen Hill and Brian Quick have little value even to guys who took them in the 1st in 2012. Across the board players are expected to come in and contribute. Sometimes I hesitate to offer a guy a low pick for a struggling WR but I think no one cares about "3rd year WR breakout" anymore.

CFB is a passing league and preparing guys to contribute.

 

[duaneok66]

I respectfully disagree. Some guys aren't ready. It takes years for some guys to really contribute. The passing game in the NFL is a lot different than the passing game at the college level.

 

[DoubleG]

I just wanted to say kudos to everyone in this thread - especially Adam and EBF (sorry if I left out other worthwhile contribs). This thread is one of the best in the pool. Keep up the good work. I learn more from this thread than pretty much anything on the internet.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Where are we on Keenan Allen? Without the injury, would he have had a higher pedigree? Or is he just a guy and got drafted right where he should have? With all the Austin/Patterson/Hopkins hoopla he pretty much has flown right under the radar in dynasty leagues, comparatively. At one time people loved him.

 

[EBF]

The fact that probably 75% of the rookies with an ADP in the 12-24 range will ultimately become crap doesn't change the fact that taking Stacy ahead of players like Michael, Hunter, Woods, and Manuel was a pretty big blunder.

It was a bigger mistake to take Hunter/Woods over Michael than to take Stacy over Hunter/Woods.

That's pretty much completely besides the point. I don't know that I agree anyway.

I would much rather have Michael than either WR right now, but at least those guys have a pulse.

Stacy was drafted almost 100% because of his opportunity and now that he has seemingly squandered it, his value is almost nil.

Woods is already getting PT and Hunter will get a shot at some point. Much rather have either of them than Stacy.

 

[EBF]

Where are we on Keenan Allen? Without the injury, would he have had a higher pedigree? Or is he just a guy and got drafted right where he should have? With all the Austin/Patterson/Hopkins hoopla he pretty much has flown right under the radar in dynasty leagues, comparatively. At one time people loved him.

I think he really got exposed as a pedestrian physical talent at the combine and his pro day. You don't see a lot of slow, thin guys succeeding in the NFL. I had a couple draft picks in Allen's ADP range this year and basically dodged him. Just couldn't sell myself at his price. He's another guy who was treated like a "good" 3rd rounder and routinely drafted ahead of players like Dobson, Wheaton, and Goodwin. I don't necessarily disagree that he's better than those guys, but his reputation inflated his cost compared to the average 3rd round rookie WR.

I haven't made any effort to watch him at all since he came to San Diego, but I'm pretty familiar with him from his Cal days. My thinking is that his workout profile makes him a risky prospect, but that he might have enough good traits to carve out a useful role as a possession target. I think combine drills struggle to measure fluidity and initial quickness, and those are two areas where I think Allen is pretty good. If it totally clicks, I could see him being used as a Crabtree/Colston type of weapon. A guy who can uncover on short routes and be a high receptions/low ypc type.

I would consider a random 2nd round rookie pick to be a fair price, but his ADP was in the late first range and I don't like him enough at that price to buy.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Where are we on Keenan Allen? Without the injury, would he have had a higher pedigree? Or is he just a guy and got drafted right where he should have? With all the Austin/Patterson/Hopkins hoopla he pretty much has flown right under the radar in dynasty leagues, comparatively. At one time people loved him.

I tend to think he's a guy who got drafted right about where he should have. I've warmed on him a little bit in the last two weeks, but it's not because of anything he's done- Philip Rivers showing signs of life again suggests I might have been underrating his situation.