Dynasty Rankings (7 Viewers)

[EBF]

As I've stated before, part of my skepticism re: Gronk is because I don't think he'll be a durable guy long term. I know that's ironic considering my hyping of Graham, but it's how I feel. He takes too many big shots and doesn't protect himself. That's part of the reason why I mentioned fluidity. He's not able to make the cuts needed to turn direct hits into glancing blows like Witten, Gonzo, and Graham. His full-speed ahead battering ram style is effective and fun to watch, but IMO not a recipe for a long prime.

For me he's the double whammy of being...

1. Not quite as great as people think he is.

2. Not likely to play at his peak for as long as people think he is.

You can question both of those conclusions and argue that all injuries are random, but that's my take regardless.

Anyways, I know there are many Gronk true believers who frequent this thread. By now, we've all said our piece on both sides of the debate. Not much is going to come from rehashing the same points. Might as well move on to talk about something else.

 

[BespokeJort]

Any thoughts on Lance Kendricks? Was hyped as a big receiving threat coming into the league, dropped passes like DHB and Troy Williamson, stopped getting the ball, got benched, got dropped in every league ever...might be starting to put it together with TD's in 3 straight weeks now, though not getting a ton of looks. He's been overshadowed by guys like Fauria doing the same thing to the point where I have been able to pick him up as an FA in all my leagues (including one 14x30) so I assume he's free pretty much everywhere. But I feel like he profiles as a guy with a much higher likelihood of seeing consistent looks between the 20s than a Fauria type, though I haven't seen STL play this year, to my whatever-the-opposite-of-dismay is (just regular may?).

 

[Adam Harstad]

Any thoughts on Lance Kendricks? Was hyped as a big receiving threat coming into the league, dropped passes like DHB and Troy Williamson, stopped getting the ball, got benched, got dropped in every league ever...might be starting to put it together with TD's in 3 straight weeks now, though not getting a ton of looks. He's been overshadowed by guys like Fauria doing the same thing to the point where I have been able to pick him up as an FA in all my leagues (including one 14x30) so I assume he's free pretty much everywhere. But I feel like he profiles as a guy with a much higher likelihood of seeing consistent looks between the 20s than a Fauria type, though I haven't seen STL play this year, to my whatever-the-opposite-of-dismay is (just regular may?).

Eh, if the only options are Fauria or Kendricks, I guess I'd rather have Kendricks. Of course, that's a choice between a guy who has been such a bust through three years that his team gave $19 million guaranteed to another TE, and a UDFA with 9 career targets. Joseph Fauria so far is a destitute man's Kyle Rudolph- all the touchdowns, not even a quarter of the yards. All of the same criticisms of Rudolph apply, only more so.

Not that Kendricks has been any better, honestly, but at least he's gotten more snaps than Jared Cook in each of the last two weeks. Really, the whole comparison calls to mind this. The only winning move is not to play. If your league is deep enough where they're the best option on the wire, they might be worth a gamble, but I'd have a hard time getting excited about either.

 

[renesauz]

Finding it hard to believe that serious dynasty guys would even give Fauria more than a passing glance. He has what...9 targets all season? I'm ecstatic to let other guys chase that kind of production.

I've been watching Kendricks too, wondering if he's finally starting to put it together, but I haven't pulled the trigger on him anywhere. Picked up the rookie TE in Tampa in a couple leagues instead.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Finding it hard to believe that serious dynasty guys would even give Fauria more than a passing glance. He has what...9 targets all season? I'm ecstatic to let other guys chase that kind of production.

I've been watching Kendricks too, wondering if he's finally starting to put it together, but I haven't pulled the trigger on him anywhere. Picked up the rookie TE in Tampa in a couple leagues instead.

Eh, Fauria is an UDFA who is already carving out at least a small role in the most pass-oriented offense in the NFL. That's at least worth being on the dynasty radar. But yeah, on 9 targets, his production this year positively screams "Marc Boerigter" to me.

 

[DoubleG]

Not sure how this thread hasn't been posted in almost a week, but I wanted to address a couple of general concepts. I will use my specific players, but this is not a "how to manage my team" as much as get some feedback general strategy when it comes to looking at dynasty situations - specifically involving WRs.

So first off, we have a season ending injury to Reggie Wayne. I think most dynasty players agree that a 34 (soon to be 35) year old WR whose speed and production is already on a steep decline can be cut outright. At worst, even if he comes back, he is easily added as an "old" WR3 - which is likely what he will be in 2014...at best.

Secondly, upon cutting such a WR at this point (the same would hold true of Smiff, or a similar player injured at an advanced age) in the season, much of the WW has been fairly cleanly picked over.

Which brings me to a specific example (which you can jump in on specifically - or generally). Some WRs available in our fairly shallow league are guys like Greg Little (he was cut earlier this year), K. Stills and guys like Boykin. So here's my question:

You have players like Stills - very talented, but fairly raw with a large caveat. Which is that Brees is already 34. While Stills advances up the ladder of the depth chart, there exists the very real possibility that his ascent may conclude with a QB not nearly as talented as Brees.

Compare that to a player like Boykin. IMHO, Boykin is not as talented as Stills. Stills has elite speed - Boykin is good at certain aspects, but does not have an "elite"-level skill. (Note: I am saying Stills speed is elite - not that he is an elite WR). One major plus in Boykin's favor however is that Rodgers probably has an extra 5 years on his career vs. Brees - so Boykin has a stable QB for the foreseeable future.

Then you have a guy like Greg Little - fairly highly touted coming out, but has shown very little beyond mediocrity at the NFL level. His QB play has been poor, to be sure. But in my humble opinion, his poor showing is also due to his poor play.

I realize the differences (and why you would rank them) are paper thin in "young WR with upside" cases, but here is my thinking:

Stills has at least one elite skill - and his "minor" emergence is a function of his own ability. Boykin's sudden impact is due to injury - and one(s) that could be remedied as soon as 2014 (in J. Jones case, as soon as this week). I feel his value is more short term than Stills' due to him being "just a guy" at WR due to the loss of Finley, Cobb and J. Jones (see Harry Douglass as an example).

Little, on the same line, is similar to Boykin in the fact that he has shown very little - and can easily be replaced by a decent draft. The presence of Gordon and Cameron reduce his value even further.

So, for LONG term dynasty purposes, I would rank them like this:

Stills (with minuses for QB uncertainty in 2-3 years)

Boykin (with minuses due to lack of elite skill and injury-dependent situation, but a bump for QB)

Little (with minuses for better receiving options, erratic QB play and general lack of production over previous seasons)

Thoughts? Again, in general - especially as related to QB situations, as more than almost any other position (even TE) I think WR is affected fairly significantly by their respective QBs. Mike Wallace without Big Ben's deep ball, is not nearly the producer he was - as an example - or Fitz for the more drastic.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Worth noting that James Jones is a UFA after this season (as is Finley). I'd prefer Boykins out of that trio, simply because (A) he has the highest degree of urgency (we'll get a pretty good idea in the next couple of weeks whether he's a JAG or just someone who wasn't on our radar yet, while Stills has the potential to be an albatross for another year or two), and (B) he has the clearest path to heavy playing time. Even ignoring the short-term injury situation, if Jones and/or Finley walk, Boykin could find himself in a very nice place. Meanwhile, New Orleans still has a lot of other WRs competing with Stills at the end of the roster (Moore, Toon, and Joe Morgan).

 

[EBF]

Thoughts? Again, in general - especially as related to QB situations, as more than almost any other position (even TE) I think WR is affected fairly significantly by their respective QBs. Mike Wallace without Big Ben's deep ball, is not nearly the producer he was - as an example - or Fitz for the more drastic.

I think there was a similar discussion not too long ago. IMO there are a few levels of NFL receiver:

Elite #1 - A player who would excel regardless of situation. Examples: Dez Bryant, Calvin Johnson, Vincent Jackson, Brandon Marshall

Quality Starter - A solid starter capable of producing strong FF numbers with the right opportunity. Examples: Eric Decker, Mike Williams, Steve Johnson

Journeyman - Good enough to stick around the league for a long time, but lacks real FF value. Examples: Kevin Walter, Michael Jenkins, Nate Burleson

Scrubs - Bottom-of-the-roster youngsters who will wash out of the league in short order.

I think the players in the first group will produce independent of QB play. Their numbers will fluctuate a little bit depending on their usage and their supporting cast, but in general they're going to break 65 catches and 1000 yards almost no matter what. And with a serviceable supporting cast they're guaranteed even more.

The players in the fourth group will be worthless regardless of supporting cast. They're just not viable NFL talents.

Where supporting cast has the biggest impact is with the players in groups 2-3. A merely solid starting caliber NFL WR like Mike Williams will be an every week FF starter with good opportunity and essentially worthless without it. I think guys like Lance Moore, Eric Decker, James Jones, Brian Hartline, Stevie Johnson, and (to a much lesser extent) Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb owe a lot of their FF output to being in the right situation. They wouldn't be able to produce if they didn't have a certain level of talent, but on the other hand you never look at those guys and think they're among the best receivers in the league. Stick any one of them on the Browns, Jets, Vikings, or Raiders and it's tough to imagine him cracking the 1000+ yard barrier.

So I think a key factor is knowing what you're looking at. Honestly, there is a pretty clear pattern with legitimate #1 NFL WRs. Most of them have special height/weight/speed/explosiveness numbers. It seems nearly impossible for someone without the right combination of physical traits to reach that level. However, there are quite a few great players from group 2 who are very ho-hum athletes on paper. Randall Cobb, Eric Decker, Rueben Randle, and Stevie Johnson are very mediocre combine number athletes, but they're also very good football players and if you give them a decent opportunity they will produce.

It's really unlikely that you'll find a group 1 WR on the scrap heap. Those guys tend to get picked in the 1st round of the NFL draft and very few of them will ever hit the waiver wire before they break out in the league. However, there are plenty of potential group 2-3 types out there. What you're hoping for when you grab a Jarrett Boykin or DeVier Posey is that he has enough ability to become one of those guys. There is no magic formula to differentiate between them though. Each case is going to be a judgment call where you have to weigh ability, short term opportunity, and long term opportunity.

Let's not forget that, as much as we like to think we're in control of our teams, there is a lot of luck involved in FF. Randall Cobb would not have been Randall Cobb in 2012 without Greg Jennings going down. Jarrett Boykin would not have any immediate prospects if James Jones and Randall Cobb hadn't gone down. Larry Fitzgerald would be worth a lot more if Arizona had a decent QB. Eric Decker would not be a top 10 FF WR if Peyton Manning hadn't joined the Broncos. You can kinda sorta anticipate some of this stuff, but a lot of it is just random. That's why I think your best bet in dynasty is to rank players mainly based on talent and let the chips fall where they may in terms of opportunity.

 

[werdnoynek]

As a Packer fan, I'm happy that Boykin stepped up and siezed the opportunity. But I wouldn't be surprised if the Packers look to add a more talented WR in the draft next year. Boykin doesn't do anything great, he's slow and isn't elusive. He's in a great situation, but that's about all he's got going for him at the moment. He's a stop gap talent and I would be selling high if I had him on any of my teams.

 

[DexterDew]

GB likes to promote and reward from within, and they will sometimes hang on to their vet WRs (like Driver, but not Jennings)... I have held Boykin in most of my dynasty leagues for just this reason. Once he "won" the 4th WR spot, I knew he may have value if there was an injury or if Jones walks. Granted, we are talking end of the roster stashes, but the situation that EBF is talking about is about as good as you can get (fairly young QB in a stable, successful offense).

The opportunity to acquire Boykin will be closing soon. If he remains in the slot until Cobb comes back, it will be an opportunity for him to solidify himself in 2014+. I thought Jones was going to be gone after his last contract was up. I will guess again that he will be gone when this one is up since GB doesn't overpay their WRs. So being a Top 3 WR in GB is a starter in FF... the number of targets and usage dictates if it is a WR1, WR2 or WR3.

So GB will likely draft another WR (or 2) in 2014, and likely a TE, too. But rookie WRs do not receive a lot of playing time their first year. It the situation arises, maybe they can produce in Year 2.... but not likely and is injury dependent. The system is set to keep rotating in young talent... it really is impressive from an organizational standpoint.

 

[Spin]

I don't follow enough college, just what I read online, which is not near as much as a few of the folks here, so about this time last year everyone was recommending selling your 2013 picks for 2014 1sts. But it seems like from what I've read, that the 2014 class is lacking the dominate players at the top as well, and I believe it was EBF who suggested the strength is in the mid 1st.

Is it time to start moving some of the 2014 1sts and targeting 2015?

 

[thriftyrocker]

Was selling your 2013 picks for 2014 picks that smart? Assuming it was a late pick you lost out on Allen, Eifert, and Michael. And Stacy or Lattimore too although that is another discussion. Most of the picks in the late 1st were worth the capital, I think. Which given the class's all time dreggs status says something.

I don't know if repeating the same failed strategy is necessary good. Of course common sense if you don't like the players available don't make the pick, but there is enough talent there to last 12 fantasy picks. There's a lot of greatish players. Maybe it lacks the same eliteness that 2013 failed to produce, at least on face value, but there's talent there. Like 2012 too much of the talent is QB unfortunately, plus 2 great TE (counting Ebron here), but there are similar numbers of impact RB/WR as 2013.

If you're looking for top shelf elite RB, then yes you have to wait til 2015. It's hard to bet on 2015 picks being high though. Certainly loading up on 2015 picks is a good strategy if you're in love with Gurley or Yeldon.

 

[EBF]

I don't follow enough college, just what I read online, which is not near as much as a few of the folks here, so about this time last year everyone was recommending selling your 2013 picks for 2014 1sts. But it seems like from what I've read, that the 2014 class is lacking the dominate players at the top as well, and I believe it was EBF who suggested the strength is in the mid 1st.

Is it time to start moving some of the 2014 1sts and targeting 2015?

At some point you've got to man up and just make a pick. I think this draft is good enough to roll with.

Is there a perfect prospect out there? Maybe not, but there are plenty of good ones. See the 2014 draft thread for more talk on that.

Remember that every year the "wait until the next draft" mantra dominates. Allen, Woods, Dyer, Hunter, and Lattimore were supposed to be the great prospects. Then Lee, Watkins, ASJ, and Seastrunk. Right now it's Gurley, Yeldon, and Winston. The thing is, by the time the draft actually rolls around and all of those guys have been put under the microscope, many of them will lose some of their luster (like ASJ and, to a lesser extent, Lee have this season). So if you are looking ahead and thinking you need to wait for the perfect draft class, you'll be waiting forever. There are down years and there are up years, but much of that's going to hinge on 1-2 super prospects and honestly I don't see Calvin, Peterson, or Julio anywhere out there on the college landscape.

This upcoming draft is pretty good. If everyone declares you're looking at a deep QB class, 1-2 first round backs, 1-2 great receiving TEs, and a very good WR class with 5-6 guys who could be first round picks. The 2013 group is having some success, but I think if you moved your 2013 picks for equivalent value in 2014 you'll probably be pleased with the outcome.

 

[Nucker101]

I don't follow enough college, just what I read online, which is not near as much as a few of the folks here, so about this time last year everyone was recommending selling your 2013 picks for 2014 1sts. But it seems like from what I've read, that the 2014 class is lacking the dominate players at the top as well, and I believe it was EBF who suggested the strength is in the mid 1st.

Is it time to start moving some of the 2014 1sts and targeting 2015?

At some point you've got to man up and just make a pick. I think this draft is good enough to roll with.

Is there a perfect prospect out there? Maybe not, but there are plenty of good ones. See the 2014 draft thread for more talk on that.

Remember that every year the "wait until the next draft" mantra dominates. Allen, Woods, Dyer, Hunter, and Lattimore were supposed to be the great prospects. Then Lee, Watkins, ASJ, and Seastrunk. Right now it's Gurley, Yeldon, and Winston. The thing is, by the time the draft actually rolls around and all of those guys have been put under the microscope, many of them will lose some of their luster (like ASJ and, to a lesser extent, Lee have this season). So if you are looking ahead and thinking you need to wait for the perfect draft class, you'll be waiting forever. There are down years and there are up years, but much of that's going to hinge on 1-2 super prospects and honestly I don't see Calvin, Peterson, or Julio anywhere out there on the college landscape.

This upcoming draft is pretty good. If everyone declares you're looking at a deep QB class, 1-2 first round backs, 1-2 great receiving TEs, and a very good WR class with 5-6 guys who could be first round picks. The 2013 group is having some success, but I think if you moved your 2013 picks for equivalent value in 2014 you'll probably be pleased with the outcome.

Totally agree, I like this draft class better as well. The other thing to factor is how your league views and values 1st round prospects compared to actual first round draft picks. From a pure trade value perspective I find that moving current picks to next year's picks(especially mid/late 1sts and 2nd rounders) tends to be the smarter move if you haven't been able to fnd a good enough trade to move them this year and you're someone who looks to move draft picks/prospects constantly instead of holding onto them.

 

[hostile]

Where are we at with Isiah Pead?

I see he's still ranked in the RB4/5 area, but I find that hard to believe...

 

[lyon812]

Finding it hard to believe that serious dynasty guys would even give Fauria more than a passing glance. He has what...9 targets all season? I'm ecstatic to let other guys chase that kind of production.

I've been watching Kendricks too, wondering if he's finally starting to put it together, but I haven't pulled the trigger on him anywhere. Picked up the rookie TE in Tampa in a couple leagues instead.

Eh, Fauria is an UDFA who is already carving out at least a small role in the most pass-oriented offense in the NFL. That's at least worth being on the dynasty radar. But yeah, on 9 targets, his production this year positively screams "Marc Boerigter" to me.

With Scheffler gone, Fauria showing that he's a difficult-to-defend red zone threat, and Pettigrew being consistently disappointing, I absolutely don't mind taking a flyer on Fauria and seeing what comes of it the rest of the year. Some excellent points are made here: http://rotoviz.com/index.php/2013/10/can-joseph-fauria-keep-on-dancing/. It's probably behind a paywall, so I'll quote two relevant bits:

1. Size. Fauria is 6’7”, with a 35.5” vertical leap. There are only 18 defensive backs in the entire NFL that are 6’2” or taller (that have recorded at least 1 tackle or pass defended). He ought to be able to continue leaping over defenders:

2. "What can Cleveland do? Doubling just Johnson or Fauria leaves the other in single coverage. Doubling both leaves only 7 defenders in the box facing 7 blockers plus the RB. Defenses must take their chances 1:1 with Calvin Johnson, Reggie Bush, or Joseph Fauria. It seems reasonable to think that Fauria should continue to get favorable matchups in the red zone."

 

[Adam Harstad]

Where are we at with Isiah Pead?

I see he's still ranked in the RB4/5 area, but I find that hard to believe...

I just cut him today to add C.J. Anderson in a relatively shallow dynasty league (12 teams, 20 roster spots + 2 TS + 2 IR, although no kickers). If we were talking about 30-man rosters, I'd probably prefer Pead, but in shallower leagues Anderson's urgency factor makes him a much more intriguing hold as he'll likely be active for the first time this season.

To provide more data, the guys at the end of my bench who I kept over Pead are Sam Bradford, Danario Alexander, Mark Ingram, LaVon Brazill, Austin Collie, Ryan Broyles, Kris Durham, and Robert Housler.

 

[hostile]

Where are we at with Isiah Pead?

I see he's still ranked in the RB4/5 area, but I find that hard to believe...

I just cut him today to add C.J. Anderson in a relatively shallow dynasty league (12 teams, 20 roster spots + 2 TS + 2 IR, although no kickers). If we were talking about 30-man rosters, I'd probably prefer Pead, but in shallower leagues Anderson's urgency factor makes him a much more intriguing hold as he'll likely be active for the first time this season.

To provide more data, the guys at the end of my bench who I kept over Pead are Sam Bradford, Danario Alexander, Mark Ingram, LaVon Brazill, Austin Collie, Ryan Broyles, Kris Durham, and Robert Housler.

This is exactly why I was asking, and exactly what I did before you replied (start 2QB league with 26 man rosters including a kicker and DST).

I figured with what the coaching staff did with Julius Thomas last year and this year the same thing with Anderson, I figured Anderson had a quicker path to opportunity, and hopefully, relevance.

 

[BespokeJort]

Where are we at with Isiah Pead?

I see he's still ranked in the RB4/5 area, but I find that hard to believe...

I was having the same internal dialogue about Daryl Richardson.

 

[EBF]

Both those guys are nearly worthless IMO. Pead has been a total flop.

Richardson looks like he can be a useful complement, but he hasn't exactly shined in his chance to claim the starting role.

I thought the Rams would draft a back high last year. If their current crop doesn't improve in a hurry, I look for them to draft one in May.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

Pead has been as awful as a high pick could be. He's already behind 3 late round picks the past 2 years. Pride is the only reason the regime hasn't cut him yet.

Can't run in the tackles, fumble prone, idiot off the field, isn't fast, can't break a tackle, can't pass protect. The only thing he's shown in 2 years is he can catch a dump off in garbage time. Only reason he'd ever have a chance to run into PPR value is because he'll play on a team constantly playing from behind.

 

[Concept Coop]

I don't follow enough college, just what I read online, which is not near as much as a few of the folks here, so about this time last year everyone was recommending selling your 2013 picks for 2014 1sts. But it seems like from what I've read, that the 2014 class is lacking the dominate players at the top as well, and I believe it was EBF who suggested the strength is in the mid 1st.

Is it time to start moving some of the 2014 1sts and targeting 2015?

I like the 2015 class a lot and think it has a chance to be special at the top. I'd consider moving 2014 picks for 2015 picks, assuming I am compensated for delaying my ROI. 2014 is looking pretty strong, but it's not going to offer Green/Julio/Trent/Luck level prospects at the top. 2015 might, in my opinion. The problem is the accuracy with which we can project a picks landing spot 1.5 years out.

 

[Unwrittenlaw]

I'm not sure if anyone else has noticed this but typically first year QB's that have more INT's than TD's tend to be busts. I think now is the time to trade Geno Smith. He's currently at 8-13.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I'm not sure if anyone else has noticed this but typically first year QB's that have more INT's than TD's tend to be busts. I think now is the time to trade Geno Smith. He's currently at 8-13.

Tannehill looks pretty solid. Alex Smith is a lot of things (disappointment among them, sure), but I wouldn't call him a bust. Carson Palmer didn't throw a pass as a rookie, finished with 18 TDs vs. 18 INTs as a sophomore, and turned out just fine (could have been an All Pro had injuries not derailed his career). That Peyton Manning kid showed signs of promise, and I think he might actually have a career in the league.

Truth is, most quarterbacks bust. Almost any subset you take of the rookie quarterback population is going to contain more busts than not. And not a lot of quarterbacks get thrown into the fire early to have a chance to throw more INTs than TDs in year one. Most of the ones that do have a lot more glaring warning signs than their TD:INT ratio (YPA being the biggest indicator). Geno's YPA was a fantastic 7.7 coming into today. He's led 2 fourth quarter comebacks and 4 game-winning drives in his first half-season of play. I'm not the slightest bit concerned about his TD:INT ratio and what it means for his long-term future at this point.

Smith has plenty of flaws (he keeps missing Stephen Hill deep, which is a doubly-unforgivable sin since I'm a Stephen Hill owner ). Still, based on what I've seen of him so far this season, my opinion of him is higher than it was two months ago.

 

[fruity pebbles]

I'm not sure if anyone else has noticed this but typically first year QB's that have more INT's than TD's tend to be busts. I think now is the time to trade Geno Smith. He's currently at 8-13.

Peyton Manning was 26-28

 

[EBF]

It is a pain in the a$$ to find viable starting RBs in 12-14 mandatory 2RB leagues, so I'm always on the lookout for cheap players who might become serviceable starters. Some of the more interesting options out there right now IMO:

Toby Gerhart - Former 2nd round pick who actually played well in 2011 with Peterson out. There is very little flash to his game, but he's a decent back and he reportedly drew trade interest earlier this season. The best thing about him is that he's a free agent after this season and DIRT cheap. I don't expect anyone to hand him a starting job on a plate, but there are MANY teams he could sign with and at least threaten to earn consistent touches in a committee.

Shonn Greene - 2-time 1000+ yard rusher on less-than-dynamic Jets teams. I don't think he's as bad as everyone thinks he is. If you're a believer in using objective NFL data points to evaluate players, you should make note of the relatively large contract Tennessee committed to Greene. I admittedly don't know the particulars of what it would mean financially for the Titans to get rid of Chris Johnson, but it seems possible that Greene could get 1-2 seasons there as a starter. The upside is VERY limited, but in larger 2RB leagues anyone who gets touches has value.

Mark Ingram - My level of optimism is very VERY low on this player, but we all know about his background and draft hype. If I could get him as a throw-in or for the price of a late 2nd round rookie pick, I might take a punt on him. There's some chance that he could become a Benson or Moreno on a new team. It's a low upside proposition and I wouldn't give up much to get him, but we've seen this movie before with other initial draft flops.

Jonathan Stewart - It has always been a question of opportunity and health, not ability. IF he comes back to 100% and stays reasonably healthy, there is plenty of upside here over his current cost. It remains to be seen if he can get back to his old level, but the idea that he's toast seems premature. He's younger than Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster, Marshawn Lynch, Reggie Bush, Matt Forte, and Adrian Peterson (all of whom are viewed as top 10-15 dynasty backs).

Apart from those guys, there's an interesting group of young backs who have flashed legitimate NFL talent and/or were high draft picks with compelling potential. I'd put Bernard Pierce and Christine Michael at the head of that list with David Wilson, Bryce Brown, and Ben Tate also in the picture. I don't want to get too carried away with the Michael hype because he's not a flawless prospect or a slam dunk lock, but when you weigh his youth/talent potential he should be rated much higher on generic dynasty lists. I feel the same way about Pierce, who clearly has NFL starter talent, but just needs to stay healthy and get his chance.

 

[EBF]

A little more on Gerhart.

I don't think he's some kind of mega star. I actually didn't draft him in any leagues his rookie year even though I'm primarily a Stanford fan in terms of CFB. That tells you something about my opinion of his skills relative to how high he was drafted. I was pretty lukewarm on him. He's no dynamo and I'm well aware of it.

Putting that aside, he appears to be criminally underrated. I don't know where FBG has him on their dynasty list because that's behind a paywall, but DLF has him at RB75 right now. That's such a low rating that they're basically saying he's waiver fodder/worthless. That's consistent with my experience in my leagues. I could not get a 2nd round rookie pick for Gerhart from the Peterson owner in a 14 team start 2 RB dev league. He was actually dropped in one of my other 14 team start 2 RB dev leagues earlier this season. Nobody is high on this guy right now.

If I had to sit down and rank every RB in the NFL based on talent level, I'm not sure exactly where I'd have Toby. Probably somewhere in the 30-45 range. He's not an above average starter, but he's probably one of the better backups in the league. I think the main reason why the dynasty pool hates him so much is because he has been stuck in literally the worst situation of any RB in the NFL. Peterson is the best pure runner in the league by miles. That means if you're the unlucky guy stuck behind him on the bench, you're SOL. Which brings me to my next point...

There is nowhere to go but up for Gerhart. From a talent standpoint, he is what he is. A mediocre power back with a little bit of receiving ability. However, we all know that production is a combination of talent and situation. And that's where Gerhart stands to benefit. He will almost certainly sign elsewhere in the offseason. Some of the potential landing spots are pretty uninspiring (such as the Bucs, Eagles, Chiefs, and Ravens). However, some of them are pretty interesting (such as the Browns, Jaguars, Raiders, Giants, and Falcons). Even if you assume that his chances of landing in a "bad" spot are equal to his chances of landing in a "good" spot, there's a very positive expected value for his impending team switch. That's because a worst case scenario will cause no negative change in his dynasty value (since he's already in the worst possible situation and already seen as worthless) whereas a lucky dream landing spot like Cleveland or Jacksonville could see him vault up the dynasty RB rankings 30-50 spots overnight.

All of that means that if you can get him for the RB75 price tag, he's basically free money because there's no way his value will go down and plenty of plausible scenarios in which it will increase. I think he's clearly a deep league special because he's far more likely to end up in a committee or backup role than as an unquestioned workhorse, but he's one of the most obvious value-per-cost plays out there right now.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Anyone have any experience on what Patterson is going for right now in dynasty leagues? I watch him and i think future superstar. He's raw as a receiver but his open field ability for a guy his size is nothing short of amazing. More experience and an NFL level QB and i'd be surprised if he's not a future star.

 

[Unwrittenlaw]

I'm not sure if anyone else has noticed this but typically first year QB's that have more INT's than TD's tend to be busts. I think now is the time to trade Geno Smith. He's currently at 8-13.

Peyton Manning was 26-28

I'm sure the # of Td passes factored into it. He's at the top of the list for rookie QBs. The outlier is John Elway.

Anyways, I was just trying to find something in common with Akili, Leaf, Harrington, VY, Leinart, etc and that's the thing I noticed.

 

[EBF]

Anyone have any experience on what Patterson is going for right now in dynasty leagues? I watch him and i think future superstar. He's raw as a receiver but his open field ability for a guy his size is nothing short of amazing. More experience and an NFL level QB and i'd be surprised if he's not a future star.

I think the issue with Patterson is that a lot of the people who bought him won't sell for anything less than a king's ransom. Most of the guys who have him in my leagues are the youth-crazy perennial rebuilder types who had top 3-4 rookie picks and will never sell a promising young player for anything less than 95% of his best-case-scenario upside. So unless you want to play the razor thin margin game and move someone like Blackmon or Gordon for Patterson + minor pick, you're probably going to have a tough time getting a deal done. In leagues where I'm falling out the playoff race, I would think about offering Fitz for him or maybe even Marshall, but my hunch is that his owners won't play ball. I might actually send some offers right now to test that hypothesis.

 

[lyon812]

Anyone have any experience on what Patterson is going for right now in dynasty leagues? I watch him and i think future superstar. He's raw as a receiver but his open field ability for a guy his size is nothing short of amazing. More experience and an NFL level QB and i'd be surprised if he's not a future star.

I've made a few offers on him and owners aren't selling. He is nothing but upside with more PT, and there are few things dynasty owners love more.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Anyone have any experience on what Patterson is going for right now in dynasty leagues? I watch him and i think future superstar. He's raw as a receiver but his open field ability for a guy his size is nothing short of amazing. More experience and an NFL level QB and i'd be surprised if he's not a future star.

I think the issue with Patterson is that a lot of the people who bought him won't sell for anything less than a king's ransom. Most of the guys who have him in my leagues are the youth-crazy perennial rebuilder types who had top 3-4 rookie picks and will never sell a promising young player for anything less than 95% of his best-case-scenario upside. So unless you want to play the razor thin margin game and move someone like Blackmon or Gordon for Patterson + minor pick, you're probably going to have a tough time getting a deal done. In leagues where I'm falling out the playoff race, I would think about offering Fitz for him or maybe even Marshall, but my hunch is that his owners won't play ball. I might actually send some offers right now to test that hypothesis.

I bought him so i was just curious. He was a top 3 pick in most leagues but he hasn't had that breakout yet so i could see some getting a bit uneasy. Last time i saw that kind of open field ability in a guy that size was Dez Bryant. I do like how the Vikings are using him though. For a guy with limited experience, i think kickoffs and 3 Wr sets is perfect for this stage of his development. He's just one of those guys who even in limited time stands out on the field. The deep ball last night against Tramon Williams was a good example. He had 3 steps on him and Tramon had nothing he could do but sweep his legs.

 

[EBF]

Anyone have any experience on what Patterson is going for right now in dynasty leagues? I watch him and i think future superstar. He's raw as a receiver but his open field ability for a guy his size is nothing short of amazing. More experience and an NFL level QB and i'd be surprised if he's not a future star.

I think the issue with Patterson is that a lot of the people who bought him won't sell for anything less than a king's ransom. Most of the guys who have him in my leagues are the youth-crazy perennial rebuilder types who had top 3-4 rookie picks and will never sell a promising young player for anything less than 95% of his best-case-scenario upside. So unless you want to play the razor thin margin game and move someone like Blackmon or Gordon for Patterson + minor pick, you're probably going to have a tough time getting a deal done. In leagues where I'm falling out the playoff race, I would think about offering Fitz for him or maybe even Marshall, but my hunch is that his owners won't play ball. I might actually send some offers right now to test that hypothesis.

I bought him so i was just curious. He was a top 3 pick in most leagues but he hasn't had that breakout yet so i could see some getting a bit uneasy. Last time i saw that kind of open field ability in a guy that size was Dez Bryant. I do like how the Vikings are using him though. For a guy with limited experience, i think kickoffs and 3 Wr sets is perfect for this stage of his development. He's just one of those guys who even in limited time stands out on the field. The deep ball last night against Tramon Williams was a good example. He had 3 steps on him and Tramon had nothing he could do but sweep his legs.

I think he's an interesting prospect. I don't like him enough to pay what it would take to pry him away from one of his fanboys, but in a startup draft he could be a nice value.

I just had my first offer of Fitz for Patterson straight up rejected. I sent the exact same offer in a different league and I'd bet 95% that it will be rejected. This is a great example to illustrate the difference between dynasty value in theory and dynasty value in practice. Every community dynasty ranking you'll see will put Fitzgerald ahead of Patterson. In reality, the prospect will hold more value to a lot of owners. They would rather have a 22 year old first round pick with 13 career catches than a 30 year old on a HoF career pace. Stuff like this is a big part of the reason why I preach the youth-crazy age-paranoia approach. It is based on practical experience trying to maneuver with these players.

In the league where my Fitz offer was already rejected I've offered him straight up for Blackmon, Dez (to two different owners), and Patterson all before those guys had really broken out in the NFL and been rejected without so much as a counter or a "gee let me think about this" in every case. And I'd guess that in every case he was ranked well ahead of those guys in generic dynasty rankings at the time of the offer.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Yeah, most dynasty rankings don't take age into account nearly enough. Although i can see the bird in the hand approach, in terms of trade value, the older guy is bleeding value every game you own him. My team was decimated by injuries this year (Gronk, Julio, Cobb, Harvin) so im obviously looking towards next season. Patterson wasn't cheap but i did find a trade partner who was looking to make a run this year. It was basically Victor Cruz, Ryan Mathews, Woodhead and a LBer upgrade for Patterson and Gio Bernard.

 

[Adam Harstad]

A little more on Gerhart.

I don't think he's some kind of mega star. I actually didn't draft him in any leagues his rookie year even though I'm primarily a Stanford fan in terms of CFB. That tells you something about my opinion of his skills relative to how high he was drafted. I was pretty lukewarm on him. He's no dynamo and I'm well aware of it.

Putting that aside, he appears to be criminally underrated. I don't know where FBG has him on their dynasty list because that's behind a paywall, but DLF has him at RB75 right now. That's such a low rating that they're basically saying he's waiver fodder/worthless. That's consistent with my experience in my leagues. I could not get a 2nd round rookie pick for Gerhart from the Peterson owner in a 14 team start 2 RB dev league. He was actually dropped in one of my other 14 team start 2 RB dev leagues earlier this season. Nobody is high on this guy right now.

If I had to sit down and rank every RB in the NFL based on talent level, I'm not sure exactly where I'd have Toby. Probably somewhere in the 30-45 range. He's not an above average starter, but he's probably one of the better backups in the league. I think the main reason why the dynasty pool hates him so much is because he has been stuck in literally the worst situation of any RB in the NFL. Peterson is the best pure runner in the league by miles. That means if you're the unlucky guy stuck behind him on the bench, you're SOL. Which brings me to my next point...

There is nowhere to go but up for Gerhart. From a talent standpoint, he is what he is. A mediocre power back with a little bit of receiving ability. However, we all know that production is a combination of talent and situation. And that's where Gerhart stands to benefit. He will almost certainly sign elsewhere in the offseason. Some of the potential landing spots are pretty uninspiring (such as the Bucs, Eagles, Chiefs, and Ravens). However, some of them are pretty interesting (such as the Browns, Jaguars, Raiders, Giants, and Falcons). Even if you assume that his chances of landing in a "bad" spot are equal to his chances of landing in a "good" spot, there's a very positive expected value for his impending team switch. That's because a worst case scenario will cause no negative change in his dynasty value (since he's already in the worst possible situation and already seen as worthless) whereas a lucky dream landing spot like Cleveland or Jacksonville could see him vault up the dynasty RB rankings 30-50 spots overnight.

All of that means that if you can get him for the RB75 price tag, he's basically free money because there's no way his value will go down and plenty of plausible scenarios in which it will increase. I think he's clearly a deep league special because he's far more likely to end up in a committee or backup role than as an unquestioned workhorse, but he's one of the most obvious value-per-cost plays out there right now.

FBGs consensus has him at RB65. My personal rankings have him at 62, and you know I'm a huge fan of talented backups (I'm the highest staffer on Ben Tate, for instance, at RB19). I'm open to the idea that that's a bit too low, mostly because most of the guys past a certain points become largely interchangeable, I just think his odds of getting a starting job at this point are pretty minimal, so the most likely outcome is that he becomes a roster albatross.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Anyone have any experience on what Patterson is going for right now in dynasty leagues? I watch him and i think future superstar. He's raw as a receiver but his open field ability for a guy his size is nothing short of amazing. More experience and an NFL level QB and i'd be surprised if he's not a future star.

I think the issue with Patterson is that a lot of the people who bought him won't sell for anything less than a king's ransom. Most of the guys who have him in my leagues are the youth-crazy perennial rebuilder types who had top 3-4 rookie picks and will never sell a promising young player for anything less than 95% of his best-case-scenario upside. So unless you want to play the razor thin margin game and move someone like Blackmon or Gordon for Patterson + minor pick, you're probably going to have a tough time getting a deal done. In leagues where I'm falling out the playoff race, I would think about offering Fitz for him or maybe even Marshall, but my hunch is that his owners won't play ball. I might actually send some offers right now to test that hypothesis.

I bought him so i was just curious. He was a top 3 pick in most leagues but he hasn't had that breakout yet so i could see some getting a bit uneasy. Last time i saw that kind of open field ability in a guy that size was Dez Bryant. I do like how the Vikings are using him though. For a guy with limited experience, i think kickoffs and 3 Wr sets is perfect for this stage of his development. He's just one of those guys who even in limited time stands out on the field. The deep ball last night against Tramon Williams was a good example. He had 3 steps on him and Tramon had nothing he could do but sweep his legs.

I think he's an interesting prospect. I don't like him enough to pay what it would take to pry him away from one of his fanboys, but in a startup draft he could be a nice value.

I just had my first offer of Fitz for Patterson straight up rejected. I sent the exact same offer in a different league and I'd bet 95% that it will be rejected. This is a great example to illustrate the difference between dynasty value in theory and dynasty value in practice. Every community dynasty ranking you'll see will put Fitzgerald ahead of Patterson. In reality, the prospect will hold more value to a lot of owners. They would rather have a 22 year old first round pick with 13 career catches than a 30 year old on a HoF career pace. Stuff like this is a big part of the reason why I preach the youth-crazy age-paranoia approach. It is based on practical experience trying to maneuver with these players.

In the league where my Fitz offer was already rejected I've offered him straight up for Blackmon, Dez (to two different owners), and Patterson all before those guys had really broken out in the NFL and been rejected without so much as a counter or a "gee let me think about this" in every case. And I'd guess that in every case he was ranked well ahead of those guys in generic dynasty rankings at the time of the offer.

I'd sell you Patterson for Fitzgerald. Of course, that's probably why I don't own Patterson in any leagues.

 

[lyon812]

Anyone have any experience on what Patterson is going for right now in dynasty leagues? I watch him and i think future superstar. He's raw as a receiver but his open field ability for a guy his size is nothing short of amazing. More experience and an NFL level QB and i'd be surprised if he's not a future star.

I think the issue with Patterson is that a lot of the people who bought him won't sell for anything less than a king's ransom. Most of the guys who have him in my leagues are the youth-crazy perennial rebuilder types who had top 3-4 rookie picks and will never sell a promising young player for anything less than 95% of his best-case-scenario upside. So unless you want to play the razor thin margin game and move someone like Blackmon or Gordon for Patterson + minor pick, you're probably going to have a tough time getting a deal done. In leagues where I'm falling out the playoff race, I would think about offering Fitz for him or maybe even Marshall, but my hunch is that his owners won't play ball. I might actually send some offers right now to test that hypothesis.

I bought him so i was just curious. He was a top 3 pick in most leagues but he hasn't had that breakout yet so i could see some getting a bit uneasy. Last time i saw that kind of open field ability in a guy that size was Dez Bryant. I do like how the Vikings are using him though. For a guy with limited experience, i think kickoffs and 3 Wr sets is perfect for this stage of his development. He's just one of those guys who even in limited time stands out on the field. The deep ball last night against Tramon Williams was a good example. He had 3 steps on him and Tramon had nothing he could do but sweep his legs.

I think he's an interesting prospect. I don't like him enough to pay what it would take to pry him away from one of his fanboys, but in a startup draft he could be a nice value.

I just had my first offer of Fitz for Patterson straight up rejected. I sent the exact same offer in a different league and I'd bet 95% that it will be rejected. This is a great example to illustrate the difference between dynasty value in theory and dynasty value in practice. Every community dynasty ranking you'll see will put Fitzgerald ahead of Patterson. In reality, the prospect will hold more value to a lot of owners. They would rather have a 22 year old first round pick with 13 career catches than a 30 year old on a HoF career pace. Stuff like this is a big part of the reason why I preach the youth-crazy age-paranoia approach. It is based on practical experience trying to maneuver with these players.

In the league where my Fitz offer was already rejected I've offered him straight up for Blackmon, Dez (to two different owners), and Patterson all before those guys had really broken out in the NFL and been rejected without so much as a counter or a "gee let me think about this" in every case. And I'd guess that in every case he was ranked well ahead of those guys in generic dynasty rankings at the time of the offer.

I was very surprised to receive an offer of Kaepernick for Fitzgerald, which I accepted. It was very much an outlier in the terms of offers I'm used to receiving.

 

[lbouchard]

I'm open to the idea that that's a bit too low, mostly because most of the guys past a certain points become largely interchangeable, I just think his odds of getting a starting job at this point are pretty minimal, so the most likely outcome is that he becomes a roster albatross.

He might be a roster albatross for the time you own him, but if he's on waivers, I think you could add him around week 12. So sure, he's taking up a roster spot for 5 weeks, but you get closure pretty quickly. If he gets a starting job, great. If not, back to the waiver wire before the start of next season.

 

[EBF]

Yeah, most dynasty rankings don't take age into account nearly enough. Although i can see the bird in the hand approach, in terms of trade value, the older guy is bleeding value every game you own him. My team was decimated by injuries this year (Gronk, Julio, Cobb, Harvin) so im obviously looking towards next season. Patterson wasn't cheap but i did find a trade partner who was looking to make a run this year. It was basically Victor Cruz, Ryan Mathews, Woodhead and a LBer upgrade for Patterson and Gio Bernard.

I just think there's a fundamental disconnect between most dynasty rankings and the way most dynasty players actually value players in competitive leagues. From my experience there is a lot more emphasis on future value when people are actually put to a decision than what you see in most dynasty rankings, which are basically just current production adjusted for age.

 

[EBF]

I'd sell you Patterson for Fitzgerald. Of course, that's probably why I don't own Patterson in any leagues.

Yeah, I've talked a bit about why players like Michael are more expensive in practice than in theory. The same logic applies to Patterson. Whoever owns him likely either spent a top 4-5 rookie pick on him (when they had other alternatives) or traded to get him thinking he was a great prospect. That type of person is not likely to sell Patterson for "market value" because they already viewed him as being worth more than that in the first place. Thus the actual functional trade price of a guy like Patterson is almost certainly going to be a lot higher than you'd think looking at community dynasty rankings where only a fraction of the contributors are the type of owner who values a player like Patterson.

The problem of trying to unload a player like Fitzgerald when you decide to rebuild is complicated by this type of phenomenon. If you're a rebuilding team and you're looking ahead to the future, someone like Patterson or Hopkins is probably the general type of receiver you should be targeting. A young high pick who appears to have a high ceiling. The problem in practice is that the type of owners who will be interested in acquiring your Fitzgerald are also the type of owners who value proven production over potential and thus probably don't have anyone like Patterson or Hopkins on their roster.

In other words, the people who have the players you need (top young prospects) are also the people who won't have any interest in making a deal with you (because they NEVER want anyone old). I have Brandon Marshall in one league where a loss tonight means I'll be out of the playoff hunt. I should probably start thinking about rebuilding in that league. Patterson would make sense as a potential target, but the Patterson owner in there is a chronic rebuilder who took him with the #1 pick last year, is once again out of the playoff picture this year, and thus almost certainly has NO interest in Marshall whatsoever.

The market for Fitzgerald will be limited to the 3-4 owners who have a realistic playoff chance and are willing to take on a declining asset in the name of useful production. Those teams aren't usually going to be loaded with top young prospects. Moreover, since those teams are usually going to be at least .500, if you trade Fitzgerald for their pick it will probably be just low enough to ensure that you miss out on the first tier prospects and instead have to settle on some second tier rookie who's only a 35% shot to become anything really useful.

Hence my huge aversion for aging players. Once you drive them off the lot, you are basically stuck with them. That can be fine if you need their numbers, but it also puts you in a position where you can't use them to acquire the pieces you need to rebuild in the event that your team flops. So either you trade them a "year early" before everyone else starts downgrading them, you keep them for a while and sell them later for a loss, or you just decide to ride them until they drop.

 

[fruity pebbles]

And an additional problem with Fitz right now is he's not even scoring that well. OK but not good enough for a contender to trade a top prospect for. He's not the kind of player right now who's going to put you over the top.

 

[cstu]

And an additional problem with Fitz right now is he's not even scoring that well. OK but not good enough for a contender to trade a top prospect for. He's not the kind of player right now who's going to put you over the top.

I actually had to trade him for Marshall since schedule (especially the Titans and Seahawks weeks 15/16) is terrible outside of the Eagles.

 

[cstu]

The problem of trying to unload a player like Fitzgerald when you decide to rebuild is complicated by this type of phenomenon. If you're a rebuilding team and you're looking ahead to the future, someone like Patterson or Hopkins is probably the general type of receiver you should be targeting. A young high pick who appears to have a high ceiling. The problem in practice is that the type of owners who will be interested in acquiring your Fitzgerald are also the type of owners who value proven production over potential and thus probably don't have anyone like Patterson or Hopkins on their roster.

However they have picks and probably don't value them very highly.

 

[EBF]

FBGs consensus has him at RB65. My personal rankings have him at 62, and you know I'm a huge fan of talented backups (I'm the highest staffer on Ben Tate, for instance, at RB19). I'm open to the idea that that's a bit too low, mostly because most of the guys past a certain points become largely interchangeable, I just think his odds of getting a starting job at this point are pretty minimal, so the most likely outcome is that he becomes a roster albatross.

I don't think you're too far off in your description, but if the worst case is going to team like Philly or Baltimore and riding the pine then how much lower will his value get? I think it's already at a point where no one really expects him to be anything but an injury handcuff.

If you assume that Gerhart has an equal chance of signing with all 32 teams in the NFL, how would that affect his value?

Big Positive Change

New York Jets

Cleveland

Jacksonville

Oakland (remember that DMC is a FA after this season too)

New York Giants

Atlanta

St. Louis

No Significant Change

Buffalo

Miami

New England

Pittsburgh

Denver

Baltimore

Cincinnati

Houston

Indianapolis

Tennessee

San Diego

Dallas

Philadelphia

Washington

Chicago

Detroit

Green Bay

Minnesota

Carolina

New Orleans

Tampa Bay

Arizona

San Francisco

Seattle

Big Negative Change

????

By my fairly conservative count, there are 7 out of 32 teams where he would be a strong contender for lead back duties right off the street. That's about 22% of the league. If you buy that figure, that means there's a 1 in 5 chance that Toby Gerhart is a top 25-30 dynasty back next September. And that's treating the odds as totally random, when in reality it's probably safe to assume that teams with strong RB needs are more likely to sign him than teams with weak RB needs.

We know that some of the RB-needy teams are going to draft rookies high and/or sign other notable FAs like McFadden and Tate. However, there are also a lot of "bad" fits on my list like San Francisco, Arizona, New England, New Orleans, Denver, and Miami where Toby would have a non-zero probability of winning the primary RB job within the first 1-2 years. Realistically, there are probably more like 10-12 landing spots that are at least moderately good. When you consider that probably 5-10 of the super bad fit teams like Baltimore, Minnesota, Carolina, and San Diego are probably near 0% contenders to sign him, it stars to look like he has more like a 50% chance of landing on a team where he can at least compete for carries.

I agree that roster albatross is the most likely outcome, but he's already a roster albatross, so provided that you can get him for that price without impacting your ability to work the waiver wire and stash other good sleepers, I think there's no downside and reasonable upside. It's all relative. He's not going to become LeSean McCoy overnight, but in deep leagues where you need a warm body for your RB2-RB3 spot he seems like a great end of the bench flyer to take right now.

 

[Milkman]

How are we ranking the top ten current rookies half way through the season?

Here's mine

1. Gio Bernard

2. Eddy Lacy

3. LeVeon Bell

4. Jordan Reed

5. DeAndre Hopkins

6. Cordarrelle Paterson

7. Terrance Williams

8. Keenan Allen

9. Zac Stacy

10. Christine Michael

I know Christine Michael hasn't really played but I wouldn't trade him for anybody but the top 4 picks so I thought he deserved a top ten ranking.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

How are we ranking the top ten current rookies half way through the season?

Here's mine

1. Gio Bernard

2. Eddy Lacy

3. LeVeon Bell

4. Jordan Reed

5. DeAndre Hopkins

6. Cordarrelle Paterson

7. Terrance Williams

8. Keenan Allen

9. Zac Stacy

10. Christine Michael

I know Christine Michael hasn't really played but I wouldn't trade him for anybody but the top 4 picks so I thought he deserved a top ten ranking.

Eifert has to be in there. I'd rank Michael higher, and replace Stacy with Eifert (and I'm a Stacy fan).

 

[Adam Harstad]

I'm open to the idea that that's a bit too low, mostly because most of the guys past a certain points become largely interchangeable, I just think his odds of getting a starting job at this point are pretty minimal, so the most likely outcome is that he becomes a roster albatross.

He might be a roster albatross for the time you own him, but if he's on waivers, I think you could add him around week 12. So sure, he's taking up a roster spot for 5 weeks, but you get closure pretty quickly. If he gets a starting job, great. If not, back to the waiver wire before the start of next season.

Sure. Gerhart's not worth giving up much to acquire, but if the cost of acquisition is essentially zero (basically just a couple weeks worth of a roster spot), then absolutely, give him a chance. I added C.J. Anderson in a couple leagues last week for the same reason. I don't expect to get anything out of him, but hell, the price was right, so I might as well roll the dice with him for a couple of weeks and see what happens.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

If I was sitting on Leveon Bell, I'd trade him ASAP. Guy's not long for getting bellcow carries imo, he's quite simply not very good, completely lacks explosiveness. Guy had 4 games in his last year in college where he didn't have a single carry over 10 yards, and the exact same thing is happening in the NFL. Through 4 games and 64 carries Bell's longest rush is 11 yards, he's had 2 games without a single 10 yard carry, and his YPC is 3.3.

 

[lyon812]

If I was sitting on Leveon Bell, I'd trade him ASAP. Guy's not long for getting bellcow carries imo, he's quite simply not very good, completely lacks explosiveness. Guy had 4 games in his last year in college where he didn't have a single carry over 10 yards, and the exact same thing is happening in the NFL. Through 4 games and 64 carries Bell's longest rush is 11 yards, he's had 2 games without a single 10 yard carry, and his YPC is 3.3.

Some of that's on the OL. From PFF re: yesterday's game: "Le'Veon Bell only notched 23 yards on 13 carries, but he gained 27 after contact, meaning the O-line generated him -3!"

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/10/28/refo-steelers-raiders-week-8/

 

[EBF]

Bad OL or not, I am definitely not a LeVeon Bell fan. Soft bodied athlete without much explosiveness. Dare I say plodder? He is pretty nimble for a big back, but also a huge target that's liable to get tattooed in the NFL. I think it was a bad pick by the Steelers and I've been steering clear of him in my leagues.