Dynasty Rankings (7 Viewers)

[JFS171]

My concern with Reed isn't being overrated, but rather the concussion and his history with them. At first I wasn't worried at all, but after missing several games, then ending up on IR, kind of gives you pause.

If balking at Reed at 7 is due to the risk of one more hit sending him over the edge… I get that. If he's fully healthy though, I don't doubt his production. Not sure exactly what Gruden's history is with TEs, but Gresham and Eifert in CIN suggest he's willing to use them and perhaps even values them. Plus the new OC in Washington is the old TEs coach. Can't hurt.

 

[Gandalf]

Question for dynasty leagues. Trying to determine values for the 2014 draft class. I know a lot depends on where players fall, however, assuming everyone falls into a good spot regarding opportunity. Where do you see them as ranking. This is relevant as we who play in these leagues know they are essentially year round leagues. Trades keep happening in my main league. So if able to accurately value these players (draft picks) and where they would fit in rankings, we would all have an advantage. Think its worth a discussion. I'll start...

QBs

1. Rodgers

2. Newton

3. Luck

4. Brees

5. RGIII

6. Wilson

7. Foles

8. Stafford

9. Kaepernick

10. Manning

11. Bridgewater

12. Ryan

13. Brady

14. ? Manziel

15. ? Bortles

Seems like this year, no RB would crack a 1QB starting lineup. Last year I absolutely would have felt okay heading into the season say with Luck as my starter. Not this year though.

RBs

1. McCoy

2. Charles

3. ADP

4. Martin

5. Lacy

6. Murray

7. Bell

8. Bernard

9. Forte

10. Spiller

11. Lynch

12. Morris

13. Stacy

14. Foster

15. ? Best rookie RB (not in order... Mason, Seastrunk, Hyde, Sankey)

Seems like the air starts to get thinner at around 14 and might be worth a gamble on a rookie at that point

WRs

1. Calvin

2. Green

3. Julio

4. Bryant

5. Thomas

6. Gordon

7. Cobb

8. Allen

9. Patterson

10. Jeffries

11. Marshall

12. ? Sammy Watkins (or insert alternative favorite soon to be rookie WR)

13. Brown

14. Hopkins

Hard to judge. I love Watkins, Lee and Evans. And think others will be solid too. And I know so much depends on situation but we have a ballpark of where the top few WRs will wind up. And it's about estimating where their talent fits compared to existing talent.

My list is far from perfect. Just trying to start a dialogue.

 

[EBF]

Question for dynasty leagues. Trying to determine values for the 2014 draft class. I know a lot depends on where players fall, however, assuming everyone falls into a good spot regarding opportunity. Where do you see them as ranking.

I haven't put in any real work on this rookie QB class yet, but I'm guessing you'll see the top guys come off the board around QB10-QB14. I doubt anyone will take a rookie ahead of Rodgers, Luck, Foles, Newton, Wilson, Kaepernick, Brady, Brees, Stafford, or Griffin. Peyton will also be hard to pass on if he comes back. After that, I think almost everyone else is fair game. Some might prefer Roethlisberger, Rivers, and/or Romo, but outside the top 8-10 I think a lot of owners will choose to gamble on upside. Of course that's assuming that we're not talking about a 2QB format or superflex.

At WR, I think you'll see teams take a shot on Watkins around WR8-WR14. The next few rookie receivers will probably go within 6-8 spots after. I like this WR class as a whole, but I don't personally see anyone that I'd take as a top 10 dynasty WR out of the box. I have a hunch that every league will have 2-3 guys higher than me on Watkins though, and that you'll see him go pretty high.

Where I think it really makes sense to be aggressive this year is at RB. IMO the current dynasty RB landscape is a total house of cards. Just look at your list:

RBs

1. McCoy

2. Charles

3. ADP

4. Martin

5. Lacy

6. Murray

7. Bell

8. Bernard

9. Forte

10. Spiller

11. Lynch

12. Morris

13. Stacy

14. Foster

Apart from McCoy, Martin, and possibly Bernard and Charles, I don't know if there's anyone on the list that I'd assign first round value to in a dynasty startup tomorrow. Most of these players are either aging stars with a very suspect shelf life (Lynch, Peterson, Foster, Forte) or mediocre-seeming young backs overvalued based on opportunity and volume (Bell, Lacy, Stacy). There's a strong lack of players who have both youth and obvious elite talent.

In my view there is very little, if any, talent gap between this past year's successful rookies and the incoming wave of Lache Seastrunk, Jeremy Hill, Tre Mason, Carlos Hyde, and Andre Williams. So if those guys look convincing at the combine, get picked relatively high in the draft, and land on teams where they have an immediate chance to play, I think they're going to represent nice value relative to last year's bunch.

I've been noticing a pretty consistent trend over the last many years in which people tend to underrate rookie backs before they step on the NFL field (because they're worried that those players "haven't proven anything" yet) while then overrating them once they show any signs of competence in the NFL (because they drastically overvalue the long term significance of decent small sample size performance). So what you have is an endless wave of guys like Trent Richardson, Doug Martin, David Wilson, Lamar Miller, Gio Bernard, LeVeon Bell, Eddie Lacy, and Christine Michael coming in and watching their value spike after one year almost by default. As long as you can avoid a total flop like Isaiah Pead or Ronnie Hillman, it's a good bet that your rookie RB will jump up in value after year one if he looks even halfway decent.

As I often say, I think there are 30-40 backs in the league at any given time who have enough talent to put up decent numbers if they land in a starting role. By my early guess, there look to be at least 5-6 of those in this year's draft class and I think they're poised to recreate the rookie spike of Bernard/Bell/Lacy/Stacy so long as they can get a wide open opportunity.

 

[Louche]

Where I think it really makes sense to be aggressive this year is at RB. IMO the current dynasty RB landscape is a total house of cards. Just look at your list:

RBs

1. McCoy

2. Charles

3. ADP

4. Martin

5. Lacy

6. Murray

7. Bell

8. Bernard

9. Forte

10. Spiller

11. Lynch

12. Morris

13. Stacy

14. Foster

Apart from McCoy, Martin, and possibly Bernard and Charles, I don't know if there's anyone on the list that I'd assign first round value to in a dynasty startup tomorrow. Most of these players are either aging stars with a very suspect shelf life (Lynch, Peterson, Foster, Forte) or mediocre-seeming young backs overvalued based on opportunity and volume (Bell, Lacy, Stacy). There's a strong lack of players who have both youth and obvious elite talent.

In my view there is very little, if any, talent gap between this past year's successful rookies and the incoming wave of Lache Seastrunk, Jeremy Hill, Tre Mason, Carlos Hyde, and Andre Williams. So if those guys look convincing at the combine, get picked relatively high in the draft, and land on teams where they have an immediate chance to play, I think they're going to represent nice value relative to last year's bunch.

I've been noticing a pretty consistent trend over the last many years in which people tend to underrate rookie backs before they step on the NFL field (because they're worried that those players "haven't proven anything" yet) while then overrating them once they show any signs of competence in the NFL (because they drastically overvalue the long term significance of decent small sample size performance). So what you have is an endless wave of guys like Trent Richardson, Doug Martin, David Wilson, Lamar Miller, Gio Bernard, LeVeon Bell, Eddie Lacy, and Christine Michael coming in and watching their value spike after one year almost by default. As long as you can avoid a total flop like Isaiah Pead or Ronnie Hillman, it's a good bet that your rookie RB will jump up in value after year one if he looks even halfway decent.

As I often say, I think there are 30-40 backs in the league at any given time who have enough talent to put up decent numbers if they land in a starting role. By my early guess, there look to be at least 5-6 of those in this year's draft class and I think they're poised to recreate the rookie spike of Bernard/Bell/Lacy/Stacy so long as they can get a wide open opportunity.

Definitely. I was in a dynasty start-up last year where I picked up Michael, Ball, Bell and Gio. As soon as they got playing time and their value catapulted I traded away Ball, Bell and Gio. It allowed me to stack up on other positions that are not as volatile, short-lived and injury prone as the RB position. The road to top production is so much shorter at RB compared to WR and people can't help getting on the rookie RB train when they have a couple good games or even just playing time. I'm pretty sure the trend this offseason will be that people are a bit down on RBs and the focus will be on WR and finding the next Jordan Cameron, but that just gives an even greater opportunity for people that draft rookie RBs in order to trade them when they get playing time. If you hit on a Zac Stacy or Andre Ellington type of player you'll usually be able to trade that RB for one of the top rookie WRs mid/late season since rookie WRs generally take longer to work their way into the offense and a lot of people simply don't have the patience to hold when a rookie RB flashes.

 

[thriftyrocker]

finding the next Jordan Cameron,

Not sure what that means at this point.

 

[Louche]

finding the next Jordan Cameron,

Not sure what that means at this point.

Jordan Cameron anno Oct 2013. Finding the next top 5 TE overnight sensation. A lot of owners, even in 1TE standard leagues, are picking up a flurry of young, tall, receiving TEs hoping to hit the jackpot at a position where top production is hard to find.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

finding the next Jordan Cameron,

Not sure what that means at this point.

Jordan Cameron anno Oct 2013. Finding the next top 5 TE overnight sensation. A lot of owners, even in 1TE standard leagues, are picking up a flurry of young, tall, receiving TEs hoping to hit the jackpot at a position where top production is hard to find.

True, but they (we) were doing that BEFORE Cameron and JT actually hit this season--we've all been doing it since the Gronk/Graham/Hernandez explosion. Cameron and JT were two of those guys, but it took a long time and a lot of patience to be 'right' about those two. You could just as easily still be holding Housler, Virgil Green, or have long ago dropped some guy like Onobun.

Finding the next anyone is never easy, and requires tons of patience or luck, or alternatively lazy owners in your leagues (or shallow rosters) that allow guys to languish on the wire until they stand out in training camp, finally after years of waiting, like Cameron or JT.

 

[cloppbeast]

Is Tavon Austin undervalued?

I for one didn't expect a productive rookie season out of him. He needed a year or two to adjust to the pro game.

Despite modest numbers, Austin still show-cased his talent with a couple huge games.

So I ask why is Austin going so far behind players like C. Patterson in early start-ups?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Is Tavon Austin undervalued?

I for one didn't expect a productive rookie season out of him. He needed a year or two to adjust to the pro game.

Despite modest numbers, Austin still show-cased his talent with a couple huge games.

So I ask why is Austin going so far behind players like C. Patterson in early start-ups?

Codarrelle Patterson looks the part, which is most likely why there is such a big value gap between two rookies that came into the league and flashed talent, vut took some time to adjust to play at the next level.

While I do think Patterson has more upside and is the more attractive asset - I do agree that perhaps the gap shouldn't be quite so large.

Austin's speed and quickness is a weapon that the Rams need to take more advantage of.

 

[thriftyrocker]

Is Tavon Austin undervalued?

I for one didn't expect a productive rookie season out of him. He needed a year or two to adjust to the pro game.

Despite modest numbers, Austin still show-cased his talent with a couple huge games.

So I ask why is Austin going so far behind players like C. Patterson in early start-ups?

Codarrelle Patterson looks the part, which is most likely why there is such a big value gap between two rookies that came into the league and flashed talent, vut took some time to adjust to play at the next level.

While I do think Patterson has more upside and is the more attractive asset - I do agree that perhaps the gap shouldn't be quite so large.

Austin's speed and quickness is a weapon that the Rams need to take more advantage of.

And then you compare to Justin Hunter who is about the same ADP as Austin, and I think that gap is too small. I'd much rather have Austin. Even if Hunter more looks the part.

 

[Concept Coop]

So I ask why is Austin going so far behind players like C. Patterson in early start-ups?

Patterson is overrated at this point. He shouldn't be valued much higher than he was going into the season, in my opinion. Everything he flashed--we should have expected. He was going to be one of the most elusive players from day one. He was going to be freakishly fast for his size. He was going to have some awesome highlights.

He still has a lot of work to do and I don't think it's a given that he's ever a consistant NFL WR2. And will he be able to do enough to be a fantasy WR2 otherwise?

I still love the potential and it's easy to see why people are excited about him. But what has he done to double his value? Because ccording to early startups and ADP data, he has. If you can move Patterson for a top 3 pick in this draft, I think that's a win.

ETA: He reminds me of David Wilson last year, who saw his value more than double despite his production. It feels like we're chasing the next Gordon the same way we did Spiller.

 

[Tau837]

Is Tavon Austin undervalued?

I for one didn't expect a productive rookie season out of him. He needed a year or two to adjust to the pro game.

Despite modest numbers, Austin still show-cased his talent with a couple huge games.

So I ask why is Austin going so far behind players like C. Patterson in early start-ups?

Codarrelle Patterson looks the part, which is most likely why there is such a big value gap between two rookies that came into the league and flashed talent, vut took some time to adjust to play at the next level.

While I do think Patterson has more upside and is the more attractive asset - I do agree that perhaps the gap shouldn't be quite so large.

Austin's speed and quickness is a weapon that the Rams need to take more advantage of.

And then you compare to Justin Hunter who is about the same ADP as Austin, and I think that gap is too small. I'd much rather have Austin. Even if Hunter more looks the part.

Speaking of Hunter, what do you guys think about him going forward?

 

[thriftyrocker]

I still love the potential and it's easy to see why people are excited about him. But what has he done to double his value? Because ccording to early startups and ADP data, he has. If you can move Patterson for a top 3 pick in this draft, I think that's a win.

ETA: He reminds me of David Wilson last year, who saw his value more than double despite his production. It feels like we're chasing the next Gordon the same way we did Spiller.

I don't think we expected him to have 7 TDs, all in the 2nd half of the season. His 1st year year production was a little weird. If anything I would have expected a higher YPC on lower receptions.

Watkins and Patterson are close but I'd take Patterson over any of the other WR. Granted its early in the combine/draft process.

Chasing Wilson was a failure but not for the right reasons. Congratulations if you predicted a Best-like injury scenario. Otherwise those who chased Spiller still at worst would have gotten a poor man's Spiller with Brown play a destitute man's Fred Jackson.

 

[Concept Coop]

I don't think we expected him to have 7 TDs, all in the 2nd half of the season. His 1st year year production was a little weird. If anything I would have expected a higher YPC on lower receptions.

Watkins and Patterson are close but I'd take Patterson over any of the other WR. Granted its early in the combine/draft process.

Chasing Wilson was a failure but not for the right reasons. Congratulations if you predicted a Best-like injury scenario. Otherwise those who chased Spiller still at worst would have gotten a poor man's Spiller with Brown play a destitute man's Fred Jackson.

I don't think Wilson was on his way to being a poor man's Spiller. But if we won't agree on that, maybe Lamar Miller is a better example.

As for Patterson, I think weird is a fitting adjective. During his hot streak, he still looked very awkward without the ball in his hands. He was still #3 behind Jennings and Simpson before Simpson's DUI. He was still running nine after nine and not much else.

He can produce in bursts while on the field. That's what we know, and I personally didn't doubt that much going into the season. But can he do enough to stay on the field to get those targets? Will he do enough to get them in the flow of the offense, when the team has something to play for and his development takes a backseat to wins and losses?

FTR, I am a heavy Patterson owner, and a fan in general. But I'll certainly be testing the market in my leagues, if he's being treated like a 2nd round startup pick.

 

[fruity pebbles]

So I ask why is Austin going so far behind players like C. Patterson in early start-ups?

Patterson is overrated at this point. He shouldn't be valued much higher than he was going into the season, in my opinion. Everything he flashed--we should have expected. He was going to be one of the most elusive players from day one. He was going to be freakishly fast for his size. He was going to have some awesome highlights.

He still has a lot of work to do and I don't think it's a given that he's ever a consistant NFL WR2. And will he be able to do enough to be a fantasy WR2 otherwise?

I still love the potential and it's easy to see why people are excited about him. But what has he done to double his value? Because ccording to early startups and ADP data, he has. If you can move Patterson for a top 3 pick in this draft, I think that's a win.

ETA: He reminds me of David Wilson last year, who saw his value more than double despite his production. It feels like we're chasing the next Gordon the same way we did Spiller.

I agree that Patterson is overvalued right now but disagree that he's not worth more than at the start of the season. Last 6 weeks of the season he scored like a top 10 WR. I don't think anyone expected that preseason. Can't see why you'd trade a guy with that much obvious talent as well as on field production for a top 3 rookie pick. Could possibly see Watkins if you're a big believer there but anything else and you're at a losing risk/reward scenario.

 

[Concept Coop]

I agree that Patterson is overvalued right now but disagree that he's not worth more than at the start of the season. Last 6 weeks of the season he scored like a top 10 WR. I don't think anyone expected that preseason. Can't see why you'd trade a guy with that much obvious talent as well as on field production for a top 3 rookie pick. Could possibly see Watkins if you're a big believer there but anything else and you're at a losing risk/reward scenario.

I think that's reasonable, certainly. But I don't expect that production to continue, or be consistent, at least, until he's a quality NFL WR2. It will be important for him to stay on the field and produce within the flow of the offense.

I don't think he's close to Watkins, personally. And I expect a few young, talented RBs landing in quality situations. In general, I'm likely to go that route, as I wouldn't trade Bell, Gio, or Lacy for Patterson.

 

[fruity pebbles]

I agree that Patterson is overvalued right now but disagree that he's not worth more than at the start of the season. Last 6 weeks of the season he scored like a top 10 WR. I don't think anyone expected that preseason. Can't see why you'd trade a guy with that much obvious talent as well as on field production for a top 3 rookie pick. Could possibly see Watkins if you're a big believer there but anything else and you're at a losing risk/reward scenario.

I think that's reasonable, certainly. But I don't expect that production to continue, or be consistent, at least, until he's a quality NFL WR2. It will be important for him to stay on the field and produce within the flow of the offense.

I don't think he's close to Watkins, personally. And I expect a few young, talented RBs landing in quality situations. In general, I'm likely to go that route, as I wouldn't trade Bell, Gio, or Lacy for Patterson.

personally i'd trade two bell's for him. gio and lacy are close. i'd prolly take patterson cause im a wr guy. patterson is a unique player. he may never be the best wr but he doesn't have to be to have tremendous fantasy value. he's already among the best in the nfl with the ball in his hands. as long as the vikings put it there, it doesn't really matter how it gets there.

 

[Concept Coop]

as long as the vikings put it there, it doesn't really matter how it gets there.

This is where I disagree. Or am not as confident, at least. If this was the case, and it didn't matter how the ball got there, Devin Hester, Trindon Holliday, and Dante Hall (etc,etc) would all be/have been fantasy relevant.

 

[EBF]

My beef with Patterson is that he's already valued within a whisker of established elite players, so there's not much upside to acquiring him. He's already a 2nd round pick in startup drafts. With a great outcome, he can move up all of one round. I like him, but not at that price. He'd make more sense to me at the prices people were paying for Michael Floyd last year (4th-6th round IIRC). As a 2nd round pick, there's already too much presumption of success.

I think he has a chance to be very good. He has a unique style, but on paper he fits the mold of a typical #1 NFL receiver pretty well. He certainly has the typical size, speed, and explosiveness. If he can become a consistent route runner and receiver, there's a big ceiling.

 

[fruity pebbles]

as long as the vikings put it there, it doesn't really matter how it gets there.

This is where I disagree. Or am not as confident, at least. If this was the case, and it didn't matter how the ball got there, Devin Hester, Trindon Holliday, and Dante Hall (etc,etc) would all be/have been fantasy relevant.

They dont have nearly the size/speed combo that Patterson has.

 

[thriftyrocker]

With a great outcome, he can move up all of one round. I like him, but not at that price.

With a great outcome he will become untouchable. You can move risky players for him right now. Even modest improvement you won't be able to next year. (I don't mean modest improvement from the top 10 2nd half, but rather from consistency and integration into the offense.)

I also wouldn't overstate the downside. Even with a disappointing outcome he will still carry at least top 75 value for 1.5 more years and can be moved to a more true believer. Barring injury, what is a reasonable worst case scenario?

I think Floyd presents a worse worst case scenario. He can Mike Williams himself out of value this year by just being a solid NFL WR2 again.

 

[Concept Coop]

as long as the vikings put it there, it doesn't really matter how it gets there.

This is where I disagree. Or am not as confident, at least. If this was the case, and it didn't matter how the ball got there, Devin Hester, Trindon Holliday, and Dante Hall (etc,etc) would all be/have been fantasy relevant.

They dont have nearly the size/speed combo that Patterson has.

My point wasn't to compare them to Patterson as prospects; rather, I was simply pointing out that I think it does matter.

And, again, I own him in almost half of my leagues and think the physical potential is clearly there. I just don't think we're out of the woods yet, and think a few concerns still apply a season in.

 

[Concept Coop]

With a great outcome, he can move up all of one round. I like him, but not at that price.

With a great outcome he will become untouchable. You can move risky players for him right now. Even modest improvement you won't be able to next year. (I don't mean modest improvement from the top 10 2nd half, but rather from consistency and integration into the offense.)

I also wouldn't overstate the downside. Even with a disappointing outcome he will still carry at least top 75 value for 1.5 more years and can be moved to a more true believer. Barring injury, what is a reasonable worst case scenario?

I think Floyd presents a worse worst case scenario. He can Mike Williams himself out of value this year by just being a solid NFL WR2 again.

Do you think he's a top 24 dynasty asset in standard PPR leagues?

 

[Time Kibitzer]

Spending a 2nd round pick on Patterson in a dynasty startup is crazy imo. Guy's YPR was really low for a wideout, and he's definitely not going to continue to average a TD on 25% of his rush attempts. Patterson undoubtedly displayed talent in his rookie year, but he's way too risky of a player to be worth a top 24 dynasty startup pick.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Spending a 2nd round pick on Patterson in a dynasty startup is crazy imo. Guy's YPR was really low for a wideout, and he's definitely not going to continue to average a TD on 25% of his rush attempts. Patterson undoubtedly displayed talent in his rookie year, but he's way too risky of a player to be worth a top 24 dynasty startup pick.

Sounds good on paper but when you start listing guys its possible imo. Rodgers, Cam, Luck, Lesean, Charles, Martin, Lacy, Bernard, Calvin, Julio, Green, Dez, Demaryius, Gordon, Jeffrey, Cobb, Marshall, Graham, Gronk. Gets dicey after that imo, who else are you definitely taking? Thats only 19 guys btw.

 

[EBF]

With a great outcome, he can move up all of one round. I like him, but not at that price.

With a great outcome he will become untouchable. You can move risky players for him right now. Even modest improvement you won't be able to next year. (I don't mean modest improvement from the top 10 2nd half, but rather from consistency and integration into the offense.)

I also wouldn't overstate the downside. Even with a disappointing outcome he will still carry at least top 75 value for 1.5 more years and can be moved to a more true believer. Barring injury, what is a reasonable worst case scenario?

I think Floyd presents a worse worst case scenario. He can Mike Williams himself out of value this year by just being a solid NFL WR2 again.

DLF has his ADP around 19-20. Dez/Julio/Demaryius go around 5-7. I think that's a realistic best case scenario for Patterson unless you think he's so insanely talented that he can eventually be in his own tier. So basically your maximum gain is about 12-14 ADP spots. In other words, one round.

That's a really thin profit margin for a somewhat unproven player with 469 career receiving yards. If you're right and he's a star, you've gained a round of value. If you're wrong and he's a mediocrity or a bust, you've lost your ###. It's not a gamble that I'd be keen to take. Mainly because I don't personally have that degree of faith in Patterson. If I had to make a pick in the 18-20 range, there are some established veterans who I'd rather take.

If I were looking to get a top young talent on the ascent, there are better values to be had. In terms of value-per-cost, I'd rather take Justin Hunter (ADP: 60th overall) or Christine Michael (ADP: 57th overall). Same ceiling. Fraction of the cost. I might also prefer some of the 2014 rookies outright, much less at a cheaper cost.

I think if someone is 100% sold on Patterson then it makes sense to take him at his ADP, but as a generic risk/reward proposition I don't think he's a good pick at borderline elite WR prices.

 

[Concept Coop]

Spending a 2nd round pick on Patterson in a dynasty startup is crazy imo. Guy's YPR was really low for a wideout, and he's definitely not going to continue to average a TD on 25% of his rush attempts. Patterson undoubtedly displayed talent in his rookie year, but he's way too risky of a player to be worth a top 24 dynasty startup pick.

Sounds good on paper but when you start listing guys its possible imo. Rodgers, Cam, Luck, Lesean, Charles, Martin, Lacy, Bernard, Calvin, Julio, Green, Dez, Demaryius, Gordon, Jeffrey, Cobb, Marshall, Graham, Gronk. Gets dicey after that imo, who else are you definitely taking? Thats only 19 guys btw.

Brown, Watkins and Allen are the ones that stick out, at first glance. After that, there are a lot of guys with an argument: Cruz, Harvin, Garcon, Bell, Spiller, etc. I think Patterson belongs in that group. It's one thing to have Patterson as a top 24 prospect, and another to think he's worthy of a top 24 pick.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Spending a 2nd round pick on Patterson in a dynasty startup is crazy imo. Guy's YPR was really low for a wideout, and he's definitely not going to continue to average a TD on 25% of his rush attempts. Patterson undoubtedly displayed talent in his rookie year, but he's way too risky of a player to be worth a top 24 dynasty startup pick.

Sounds good on paper but when you start listing guys its possible imo. Rodgers, Cam, Luck, Lesean, Charles, Martin, Lacy, Bernard, Calvin, Julio, Green, Dez, Demaryius, Gordon, Jeffrey, Cobb, Marshall, Graham, Gronk. Gets dicey after that imo, who else are you definitely taking? Thats only 19 guys btw.

Brown, Watkins and Allen are the ones that stick out, at first glance. After that, there are a lot of guys with an argument: Cruz, Harvin, Garcon, Bell, Spiller, etc. I think Patterson belongs in that group. It's one thing to have Patterson as a top 24 prospect, and another to think he's worthy of a top 24 pick.

I don't think any of those 3 stand out. I can see an argument but i wouldn't say of course i'd trade Patterson for Allen for example. Don't see the difference in being a top 24 prospect and being drafted in the top 24 picks. If anything a startup at the top of the draft is about the best gauge of value there is. No "needs" yet, everyone is on even footing to start.

 

[fruity pebbles]

With a great outcome, he can move up all of one round. I like him, but not at that price.

With a great outcome he will become untouchable. You can move risky players for him right now. Even modest improvement you won't be able to next year. (I don't mean modest improvement from the top 10 2nd half, but rather from consistency and integration into the offense.)

I also wouldn't overstate the downside. Even with a disappointing outcome he will still carry at least top 75 value for 1.5 more years and can be moved to a more true believer. Barring injury, what is a reasonable worst case scenario?

I think Floyd presents a worse worst case scenario. He can Mike Williams himself out of value this year by just being a solid NFL WR2 again.

DLF has his ADP around 19-20. Dez/Julio/Demaryius go around 5-7. I think that's a realistic best case scenario for Patterson unless you think he's so insanely talented that he can eventually be in his own tier. So basically your maximum gain is about 12-14 ADP spots. In other words, one round.

That's a really thin profit margin for a somewhat unproven player with 469 career receiving yards. If you're right and he's a star, you've gained a round of value. If you're wrong and he's a mediocrity or a bust, you've lost your ###. It's not a gamble that I'd be keen to take. Mainly because I don't personally have that degree of faith in Patterson. If I had to make a pick in the 18-20 range, there are some established veterans who I'd rather take.

If I were looking to get a top young talent on the ascent, there are better values to be had. In terms of value-per-cost, I'd rather take Justin Hunter (ADP: 60th overall) or Christine Michael (ADP: 57th overall). Same ceiling. Fraction of the cost. I might also prefer some of the 2014 rookies outright, much less at a cheaper cost.

I think if someone is 100% sold on Patterson then it makes sense to take him at his ADP, but as a generic risk/reward proposition I don't think he's a good pick at borderline elite WR prices.

Big difference in value between pick 20 and pick 5 though. May only be one round but that high in the draft its huge. It would usually take a late 3rd/4th round pick to move from 20 to 5 in a draft. I mean you're talking about going from a Victor Cruz type to a AJ Green type. In a trade you'd prolly need two Victors if you can get that elite player at all.

 

[Concept Coop]

Don't see the difference in being a top 24 prospect and being drafted in the top 24 picks.

Only if everyone you're drafting with values the top players as you do.

There are not 12 guys I would use a first round pick on. There are not 24 guys I would use a 2nd round pick on. But it doesn't matter, usually, because the other owners in my league aren't using my rankings.

 

[EBF]

Big difference in value between pick 20 and pick 5 though. May only be one round but that high in the draft its huge. It would usually take a late 3rd/4th round pick to move from 20 to 5 in a draft.

My sense is that most Patterson owners would already be looking to land a Gordon/Jeffery/Julio type of player if they were to move him for another WR. Someone with similar physical talent and youth, but a more comprehensive record of production. Right now they might be willing to add a relatively minor piece to even out that kind of an exchange (something like a late 1st-early 2nd round rookie pick perhaps). If Patterson really blows up in 2014 and puts up a 1100+ yard season, the only major difference is that they'll be looking for straight up trades for the same type of players.

I'm often willing to pay near a player's ceiling when I have total confidence in his ability, but I don't really like Patterson enough to pay borderline elite WR prices in hopes that he can actually become an elite WR and jump up all of one round in startup value. Not to turn this into a specific player vs. player debate, but Justin Hunter was picked 5 spots later than Patterson in the NFL draft, had better WR production on the same college team, has similarly freakish athletic qualities (albeit without the strength/weight), and made just as many or more "wow" plays as a receiver during their rookie season. His ADP is about 40 spots lower.

Typically with a young player you see a gap between their market price and their best-case-scenario upside. This is to account for the risk of failure or disappointment. I'm sure some people thought Michael Floyd, Josh Gordon, and Alshon Jeffery had top 10 WR potential before last season, but they generally weren't paying a price right on the cusp of the top 10 to get those players. I don't have ADP info handy, but my sense is that their ADP would've been closer to Hunter's 60 overall than Patterson's 20 overall. At that price you're looking at a pretty nice risk-reward equation, but in the 2nd round most of your profit margin is gone. It doesn't mean you can't turn a profit, but there's essentially no margin for error.

Ultimately, you have to rank SOMEONE at WR10-12 and 18-20 overall and there will only be so far that player can rise regardless of who he is, but that doesn't mean you actually have to be willing to pay the market price to get that player. If I have Patterson at WR12 as the 30th overall player and the field has him at WR12 as the 20th overall player then I'm not likely to end up with Patterson on any of my rosters. I don't see him representing great value right now.

 

[Concept Coop]

Ultimately, you have to rank SOMEONE at WR10-12 and 18-20 overall and there will only be so far that player can rise regardless of who he is, but that doesn't mean you actually have to be willing to pay the market price to get that player. If I have Patterson at WR12 as the 30th overall player and the field has him at WR12 as the 20th overall player then I'm not likely to end up with Patterson on any of my rosters. I don't see him representing great value right now.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Big difference in value between pick 20 and pick 5 though. May only be one round but that high in the draft its huge. It would usually take a late 3rd/4th round pick to move from 20 to 5 in a draft.

My sense is that most Patterson owners would already be looking to land a Gordon/Jeffery/Julio type of player if they were to move him for another WR. Someone with similar physical talent and youth, but a more comprehensive record of production. Right now they might be willing to add a relatively minor piece to even out that kind of an exchange (something like a late 1st-early 2nd round rookie pick perhaps). If Patterson really blows up in 2014 and puts up a 1100+ yard season, the only major difference is that they'll be looking for straight up trades for the same type of players.

I'm often willing to pay near a player's ceiling when I have total confidence in his ability, but I don't really like Patterson enough to pay borderline elite WR prices in hopes that he can actually become an elite WR and jump up all of one round in startup value. Not to turn this into a specific player vs. player debate, but Justin Hunter was picked 5 spots later than Patterson in the NFL draft, had better WR production on the same college team, has similarly freakish athletic qualities (albeit without the strength/weight), and made just as many or more "wow" plays as a receiver during their rookie season. His ADP is about 40 spots lower.

Typically with a young player you see a gap between their market price and their best-case-scenario upside. This is to account for the risk of failure or disappointment. I'm sure some people thought Michael Floyd, Josh Gordon, and Alshon Jeffery had top 10 WR potential before last season, but they generally weren't paying a price right on the cusp of the top 10 to get those players. I don't have ADP info handy, but my sense is that their ADP would've been closer to Hunter's 60 overall than Patterson's 20 overall. At that price you're looking at a pretty nice risk-reward equation, but in the 2nd round most of your profit margin is gone. It doesn't mean you can't turn a profit, but there's essentially no margin for error.

Ultimately, you have to rank SOMEONE at WR10-12 and 18-20 overall and there will only be so far that player can rise regardless of who he is, but that doesn't mean you actually have to be willing to pay the market price to get that player. If I have Patterson at WR12 as the 30th overall player and the field has him at WR12 as the 20th overall player then I'm not likely to end up with Patterson on any of my rosters. I don't see him representing great value right now.

Maybe im wrong but i think you overvalue how much others overvalue Patterson. Im defending Patterson in here so that must make me a supporter. I have in my my main league. I offered Patterson and Gio for Demaryius and was rejected. Unless you have blinders on i think most Patterson owners have a big value gap between him and the elite tier.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

Spending a 2nd round pick on Patterson in a dynasty startup is crazy imo. Guy's YPR was really low for a wideout, and he's definitely not going to continue to average a TD on 25% of his rush attempts. Patterson undoubtedly displayed talent in his rookie year, but he's way too risky of a player to be worth a top 24 dynasty startup pick.

Sounds good on paper but when you start listing guys its possible imo. Rodgers, Cam, Luck, Lesean, Charles, Martin, Lacy, Bernard, Calvin, Julio, Green, Dez, Demaryius, Gordon, Jeffrey, Cobb, Marshall, Graham, Gronk. Gets dicey after that imo, who else are you definitely taking? Thats only 19 guys btw.

Quite a lot of guys actually. Currently DLF currently has Justin Hunter ranked 31st among WRs and Cordarelle at 13, let's just say I don't see the difference between those 2 as prospects that would justify that discrepancy, not that I agree with the rest of their rankings or anything.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Spending a 2nd round pick on Patterson in a dynasty startup is crazy imo. Guy's YPR was really low for a wideout, and he's definitely not going to continue to average a TD on 25% of his rush attempts. Patterson undoubtedly displayed talent in his rookie year, but he's way too risky of a player to be worth a top 24 dynasty startup pick.

Sounds good on paper but when you start listing guys its possible imo. Rodgers, Cam, Luck, Lesean, Charles, Martin, Lacy, Bernard, Calvin, Julio, Green, Dez, Demaryius, Gordon, Jeffrey, Cobb, Marshall, Graham, Gronk. Gets dicey after that imo, who else are you definitely taking? Thats only 19 guys btw.

Quite a lot of guys actually. Currently DLF currently has Justin Hunter ranked 31st among WRs and Cordarelle at 13, let's just say I don't see the difference between those 2 as prospects that would justify that discrepancy, not that I agree with the rest of their rankings or anything.

Big tier there though. I like Patterson more than Hunter but not as much as 13 to 31 seems to indicate. The 10 guys in that 10-20 range are all pretty similar.

 

[Gottabesweet]

What picks are people trading or comfortable getting Andre Ellington?

 

[az_prof]

EBF hinted at this, so let me ask directly: why do people value Patterson so much more than Hunter? He didn't do that much more than Hunter--statistically they were very comparable. He doesn't have a great QB lined up anymore than Hunter does. Both are physical specimens. Both have draft pedigree albeit Patterson's is better. As EBF said, Hunter performed better in college in the same system. And this season Hunter had less opportunity, but there is every reason to think his opportunity will be increasing with Britt out the door and Nate Washington hitting 31 years of age in August.

 

[ShaHBucks]

EBF hinted at this, so let me ask directly: why do people value Patterson so much more than Hunter? He didn't do that much more than Hunter--statistically they were very comparable. He doesn't have a great QB lined up anymore than Hunter does. Both are physical specimens. Both have draft pedigree albeit Patterson's is better. As EBF said, Hunter performed better in college in the same system. And this season Hunter had less opportunity, but there is every reason to think his opportunity will be increasing with Britt out the door and Nate Washington hitting 31 years of age in August.

For now I'd say precieved value. I'm open to Hunter being better than I thought, therefore a decent 2014 stash, but I'd rather have Patterson if he's being percieved as the next Josh Gordon. Even if the production doesn't add up, I can trade him like he is a stud.

 

[squistion]

EBF hinted at this, so let me ask directly: why do people value Patterson so much more than Hunter? He didn't do that much more than Hunter--statistically they were very comparable. He doesn't have a great QB lined up anymore than Hunter does. Both are physical specimens. Both have draft pedigree albeit Patterson's is better. As EBF said, Hunter performed better in college in the same system. And this season Hunter had less opportunity, but there is every reason to think his opportunity will be increasing with Britt out the door and Nate Washington hitting 31 years of age in August.

Not in fantasy scoring in my leagues (PPR, return yardage not counted). Patterson had almost twice as many fantasy points as Hunter over the course of the season and in a couple leagues did outscore him over 2-to-1. Plus Patterson seemed to emerge as a future stud near the end of the season, while Hunter appeared to tail off for a variety of reasons (including injury).

 

[fruity pebbles]

EBF hinted at this, so let me ask directly: why do people value Patterson so much more than Hunter? He didn't do that much more than Hunter--statistically they were very comparable. He doesn't have a great QB lined up anymore than Hunter does. Both are physical specimens. Both have draft pedigree albeit Patterson's is better. As EBF said, Hunter performed better in college in the same system. And this season Hunter had less opportunity, but there is every reason to think his opportunity will be increasing with Britt out the door and Nate Washington hitting 31 years of age in August.

Not in fantasy scoring in my leagues (PPR, return yardage not counted). Patterson had almost twice as many fantasy points as Hunter over the course of the season and in a couple leagues did outscore him over 2-to-1. Plus Patterson seemed to emerge as a future stud near the end of the season, while Hunter appeared to tail off for a variety of reasons (including injury).

Think that's a lot to do with it. Patterson finished on a high note, scoring like a top 10 WR the 2nd half of the season.

 

[EBF]

Over the second half of the season, Hunter had 274 receiving yards compared with 323 for Patterson. And that includes week 15 when Hunter was suspended by the team. If you look at the per-game averages for the second half of the season, Hunter averaged 39.1 yards/game compared with 40.3 for Patterson. Nearly identical. Hunter also had a much higher yards per target average over the entire season:

Patterson - 6.0

Hunter - 8.4

Patterson had 78 targets compared with just 42 for Hunter. That's where the difference in their yardage comes from.

I think these two have very different styles. Patterson is more of a catch-and-run player and he probably has a higher ceiling as a possession receiver. He converted 57.7% of his targets into catches whereas Hunter had a pathetic 42.8% conversion rate. Hunter really needs to work on consistency. Right now he's just a deep threat. It's possible that he'll always be just a deep threat. He has the potential to be one of the very best in the league at that role though. Something like Sidney Rice or Randy Moss. Not many can match his top speed and he can come down with balls that most players can only dream of catching. So add it all up he probably has comparable upside to Patterson despite some weaknesses. The main thing with him will be staying healthy. There isn't a great track record of really tall, really skinny receivers having lasting success in the NFL. There's AJ Green and Randy Moss, but Hunter is even thinner than those guys.

No question the talent is there though. He made some phenomenal plays as a rookie:

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000279158/Justin-Hunter-40-yard-reception

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000248432/WK-3-Can-t-Miss-Play-Hunter-twists-the-dagger

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000287048/Hunter-54-yard-touchdown

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000252538/WK-4-Can-t-Miss-Play-Hungry-Hunter

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000294671/Justin-Hunter-41-yard-TD-reception

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000294344/Hunter-57-yard-reception

I think he's a lot like a more explosive version of Sidney Rice. Rice had that one great year where Favre realized that if you throw it up to him deep on every play, he's usually going to win the battle. Hunter has a similar ability. Hopefully Locker or whoever is QB for the Titans next year will take advantage. They've got Wright and Walker to do the dirty work, so hopefully that will leave Hunter free to take shots downfield.

 

[Brewtown]

Over the second half of the season, Hunter had 274 receiving yards compared with 323 for Patterson. And that includes week 15 when Hunter was suspended by the team. If you look at the per-game averages for the second half of the season, Hunter averaged 39.1 yards/game compared with 40.3 for Patterson. Nearly identical. Hunter also had a much higher yards per target average over the entire season:

Patterson - 6.0

Hunter - 8.4

Patterson had 78 targets compared with just 42 for Hunter. That's where the difference in their yardage comes from.

I think these two have very different styles. Patterson is more of a catch-and-run player and he probably has a higher ceiling as a possession receiver. He converted 57.7% of his targets into catches whereas Hunter had a pathetic 42.8% conversion rate. Hunter really needs to work on consistency. Right now he's just a deep threat. It's possible that he'll always be just a deep threat. He has the potential to be one of the very best in the league at that role though. Something like Sidney Rice or Randy Moss. Not many can match his top speed and he can come down with balls that most players can only dream of catching. So add it all up he probably has comparable upside to Patterson despite some weaknesses. The main thing with him will be staying healthy. There isn't a great track record of really tall, really skinny receivers having lasting success in the NFL. There's AJ Green and Randy Moss, but Hunter is even thinner than those guys.

No question the talent is there though. He made some phenomenal plays as a rookie:

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000279158/Justin-Hunter-40-yard-reception

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000248432/WK-3-Can-t-Miss-Play-Hunter-twists-the-dagger

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000287048/Hunter-54-yard-touchdown

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000252538/WK-4-Can-t-Miss-Play-Hungry-Hunter

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000294671/Justin-Hunter-41-yard-TD-reception

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000294344/Hunter-57-yard-reception

I think he's a lot like a more explosive version of Sidney Rice. Rice had that one great year where Favre realized that if you throw it up to him deep on every play, he's usually going to win the battle. Hunter has a similar ability. Hopefully Locker or whoever is QB for the Titans next year will take advantage. They've got Wright and Walker to do the dirty work, so hopefully that will leave Hunter free to take shots downfield.

Very high end talent here (size, speed and jumping ability). He showed enough to me in his rookie year to know that he is going to be a player in time. That time may begin this year. If Hunter gets targets he will produce.

He was my #1 WR going into rookie drafts last year and I traded down in both of my dynasty leagues to get him. Nobody wanted him...

I hope he works hard at his craft!

 

[thriftyrocker]

Over the second half of the season, Hunter had 274 receiving yards compared with 323 for Patterson. And that includes week 15 when Hunter was suspended by the team. If you look at the per-game averages for the second half of the season, Hunter averaged 39.1 yards/game compared with 40.3 for Patterson. Nearly identical. Hunter also had a much higher yards per target average over the entire season:

You're ignoring rushing stats but that's okay because Hunter didn't really play much. Because they didn't really trust him yet. They'd rather throw Damian Williams out there. Its dum to look at per game averages for either player at this stage.

Something like Sidney Rice or Randy Moss. Not many can match his top speed and he can come down with balls that most players can only dream of catching.

If you're throwing names in a barrel you can add Mike Wallace to that. Basically you're hoping for Mike Wallace. No disrespect to Mike Wallace.

Patterson you're hoping for Dez and satisfied if you get Torrey. Hunter you're hoping for Pitt Mike Wallace and satisfied if you get Golden Tate.

 

[ShaHBucks]

Over the second half of the season, Hunter had 274 receiving yards compared with 323 for Patterson. And that includes week 15 when Hunter was suspended by the team. If you look at the per-game averages for the second half of the season, Hunter averaged 39.1 yards/game compared with 40.3 for Patterson. Nearly identical. Hunter also had a much higher yards per target average over the entire season:

You're ignoring rushing stats but that's okay because Hunter didn't really play much. Because they didn't really trust him yet. They'd rather throw Damian Williams out there. Its dum to look at per game averages for either player at this stage.

That's fair. He can only get but so many carries. The Vikings needed him to develop as a WR more than they needed a RB2. Aside from a few spots here and there he was a non-factor as a WR. He was under 55 receving yards in 16 of 17 games. The outliner was a long pass TD in the snow. He's a really nice athlete, I have yet to see great WR play thus far.

 

[EBF]

Over the second half of the season, Hunter had 274 receiving yards compared with 323 for Patterson. And that includes week 15 when Hunter was suspended by the team. If you look at the per-game averages for the second half of the season, Hunter averaged 39.1 yards/game compared with 40.3 for Patterson. Nearly identical. Hunter also had a much higher yards per target average over the entire season:

You're ignoring rushing stats but that's okay because Hunter didn't really play much. Because they didn't really trust him yet. They'd rather throw Damian Williams out there. Its dum to look at per game averages for either player at this stage.

Something like Sidney Rice or Randy Moss. Not many can match his top speed and he can come down with balls that most players can only dream of catching.

If you're throwing names in a barrel you can add Mike Wallace to that. Basically you're hoping for Mike Wallace. No disrespect to Mike Wallace.

Patterson you're hoping for Dez and satisfied if you get Torrey. Hunter you're hoping for Pitt Mike Wallace and satisfied if you get Golden Tate.

I didn't ignore rushing stats. They're simply not an important component of any receiver's long term value. We're not talking about Sproles or Vereen here.

Your comparisons for Hunter are quite bad. He has almost nothing in common with Golden Tate (a stocky 5'10" YAC receiver) or Mike Wallace (a 6' pure speedster who might not have caught a jump ball in his career). Hunter is 6'4" with a 39.5" vertical. He can high jump 7'3". He also has a high top speed with a 40 time somewhere in the 4.3-4.4 range.

A best-case-scenario for Hunter is something between Sidney Rice and Randy Moss. A tall deep threat whose speed and leaping ability are a nightmare downfield. There's nobody quite like that on top of the WR rankings right now, but Moss was never the best possession receiver or the most elusive guy. If Hunter can be 90% of what Randy was then people will be pleased with his numbers.

 

[Brewtown]

Over the second half of the season, Hunter had 274 receiving yards compared with 323 for Patterson. And that includes week 15 when Hunter was suspended by the team. If you look at the per-game averages for the second half of the season, Hunter averaged 39.1 yards/game compared with 40.3 for Patterson. Nearly identical. Hunter also had a much higher yards per target average over the entire season:

You're ignoring rushing stats but that's okay because Hunter didn't really play much. Because they didn't really trust him yet. They'd rather throw Damian Williams out there. Its dum to look at per game averages for either player at this stage.

Something like Sidney Rice or Randy Moss. Not many can match his top speed and he can come down with balls that most players can only dream of catching.

If you're throwing names in a barrel you can add Mike Wallace to that. Basically you're hoping for Mike Wallace. No disrespect to Mike Wallace.

Patterson you're hoping for Dez and satisfied if you get Torrey. Hunter you're hoping for Pitt Mike Wallace and satisfied if you get Golden Tate.

When I look at Hunter I DO NOT see Mike Wallace. Hunter is a big target with blazing speed. Wallace is not the big target that Hunter is. I think EBFs comp to Randy Moss is who I am reminded of. I also do not think Hunter is a one trick pony of throw it deep. The catch and run for a TD last year vs the Raiders was a thing of beauty. He needs just a little more time before he starts to dominate!!!

 

[Brewtown]

Over the second half of the season, Hunter had 274 receiving yards compared with 323 for Patterson. And that includes week 15 when Hunter was suspended by the team. If you look at the per-game averages for the second half of the season, Hunter averaged 39.1 yards/game compared with 40.3 for Patterson. Nearly identical. Hunter also had a much higher yards per target average over the entire season:

You're ignoring rushing stats but that's okay because Hunter didn't really play much. Because they didn't really trust him yet. They'd rather throw Damian Williams out there. Its dum to look at per game averages for either player at this stage.

Something like Sidney Rice or Randy Moss. Not many can match his top speed and he can come down with balls that most players can only dream of catching.

If you're throwing names in a barrel you can add Mike Wallace to that. Basically you're hoping for Mike Wallace. No disrespect to Mike Wallace.

Patterson you're hoping for Dez and satisfied if you get Torrey. Hunter you're hoping for Pitt Mike Wallace and satisfied if you get Golden Tate.

I didn't ignore rushing stats. They're simply not an important component of any receiver's long term value. We're not talking about Sproles or Vereen here.

Your comparisons for Hunter are quite bad. He has almost nothing in common with Golden Tate (a stocky 5'10" YAC receiver) or Mike Wallace (a 6' pure speedster who might not have caught a jump ball in his career). Hunter is 6'4" with a 39.5" vertical. He can high jump 7'3". He also has a high top speed with a 40 time somewhere in the 4.3-4.4 range.

A best-case-scenario for Hunter is something between Sidney Rice and Randy Moss. A tall deep threat whose speed and leaping ability are a nightmare downfield. There's nobody quite like that on top of the WR rankings right now, but Moss was never the best possession receiver or the most elusive guy. If Hunter can be 90% of what Randy was then people will be pleased with his numbers.

Freakish Olympian type athlete who is pretty good (and only getting better) at the game of football!

 

[thriftyrocker]

When I look at Hunter I DO NOT see Mike Wallace. Hunter is a big target with blazing speed. Wallace is not the big target that Hunter is. I think EBFs comp to Randy Moss is who I am reminded of. I also do not think Hunter is a one trick pony of throw it deep. The catch and run for a TD last year vs the Raiders was a thing of beauty. He needs just a little more time before he starts to dominate!!!

A Randy Moss comparison is completely worthless. That's like saying Nick Foles is Joe Montana and Tyler Eifert is Tony Gonzalez. If Justin Hunter, even his Tenn highlights, remind you of Randy Moss, then you're probably only remembering the Randy Moss of Fox Sports 1. Ok, maybe his last year in NE.

That's fair. He can only get but so many carries. The Vikings needed him to develop as a WR more than they needed a RB2. Aside from a few spots here and there he was a non-factor as a WR. He was under 55 receving yards in 16 of 17 games. The outliner was a long pass TD in the snow. He's a really nice athlete, I have yet to see great WR play thus far.

I agree with everyone that he will not continue to get significant carries. Harvin didn't either. The point is that utilization is utilization. It is better to get than to not. Rushes are more likely to turn into receptions next year than reps lost to Nate Washington.

Your comparisons for Hunter are quite bad. He has almost nothing in common with Golden Tate (a stocky 5'10" YAC receiver) or Mike Wallace (a 6' pure speedster who might not have caught a jump ball in his career). Hunter is 6'4" with a 39.5" vertical. He can high jump 7'3". He also has a high top speed with a 40 time somewhere in the 4.3-4.4 range.

I'm speaking of career trajectory, fantasy upside, and (eta) team role, not height. I do not expect Hunter to get shorter.

 

[ShaHBucks]

A best-case-scenario for Hunter is something between Sidney Rice and Randy Moss. A tall deep threat whose speed and leaping ability are a nightmare downfield. There's nobody quite like that on top of the WR rankings right now, but Moss was never the best possession receiver or the most elusive guy. If Hunter can be 90% of what Randy was then people will be pleased with his numbers.

Sid Rice is a best case ignoring injuries. A healthy Sid Rice isn't bad at all. The only difference I had when comparing them pre-draft was that Rice was way better vs SEC/better opponents. Justin Hunter is far from Randy Moss. I wouldn't go anywhere near that far. I had him somewhere between Fred Gibson and Sid Rice.

 

[Brewtown]

When I look at Hunter I DO NOT see Mike Wallace. Hunter is a big target with blazing speed. Wallace is not the big target that Hunter is. I think EBFs comp to Randy Moss is who I am reminded of. I also do not think Hunter is a one trick pony of throw it deep. The catch and run for a TD last year vs the Raiders was a thing of beauty. He needs just a little more time before he starts to dominate!!!

A Randy Moss comparison is completely worthless. That's like saying Nick Foles is Joe Montana and Tyler Eifert is Tony Gonzalez. If Justin Hunter, even his Tenn highlights, remind you of Randy Moss, then you're probably only remembering the Randy Moss of Fox Sports 1. Ok, maybe his last year in NE.

That's fair. He can only get but so many carries. The Vikings needed him to develop as a WR more than they needed a RB2. Aside from a few spots here and there he was a non-factor as a WR. He was under 55 receving yards in 16 of 17 games. The outliner was a long pass TD in the snow. He's a really nice athlete, I have yet to see great WR play thus far.

I agree with everyone that he will not continue to get significant carries. Harvin didn't either. The point is that utilization is utilization. It is better to get than to not. Rushes are more likely to turn into receptions next year than reps lost to Nate Washington.

Your comparisons for Hunter are quite bad. He has almost nothing in common with Golden Tate (a stocky 5'10" YAC receiver) or Mike Wallace (a 6' pure speedster who might not have caught a jump ball in his career). Hunter is 6'4" with a 39.5" vertical. He can high jump 7'3". He also has a high top speed with a 40 time somewhere in the 4.3-4.4 range.

I'm speaking of career trajectory, fantasy upside, and (eta) team role, not height. I do not expect Hunter to get shorter.

I think your Mike Wallace / Golden Tate comparisons are completely and absolutely worthless. He has the look of a Randy Moss type to me - and I'm not the only person who made mention. I think that we are a lot closer to reality. His height combined with his freakish speed and jumping ability make him tough to comp. He has special written all over him...