Dynasty Rankings (1 Viewer)

[Concept Coop]

Such as?

Melvin Gordon has the best shot, and it almost feels likely, even, at this point. Mike Davis and TJ Yeldon are likely next, based on the current consensus. The 4th guy I had in mind is Jay Ajayi. I haven't seen a single media outlet suggest he could go in the first, so it's likely a loooongshot right now, but I personally think he's going to get a lot of love from the scouts. He's a workhorse who can do it all--he's a weapon out of the backfield, can carry the load, grind out tough yards, and hit the home run. I wouldn't be shocked if he graded out as the 3rd or 4th best back in the class, and higher than any back from last years group.

I think it's more likely that only 1 back is drafted in the first round than 3+, but there's a shot. It's a great group of talent, in my opinion, and based on what I've read.

 

[karmarooster]

Yeldon was who I had in mind but he hasn't had the look for a first round back since his rookie year. I'll be keeping an eye on Gordon and Davis for the reason of the college season.

If you don't mind, do you have any top picks at WR other than Cooper?

 

[bigmarc27]

Yeldon was who I had in mind but he hasn't had the look for a first round back since his rookie year. I'll be keeping an eye on Gordon and Davis for the reason of the college season.

If you don't mind, do you have any top picks at WR other than Cooper?

WR is pretty weak this year compared to last... Sammie Coates is decent, Cooper is good, maybe Dorial Green-Beckham carries some hype into the draft? None of these compare to Watkins or Evans IMO and they would have been fighting with Benjamin and ODB to be the next pick.

 

[jurb26]

Yeldon was who I had in mind but he hasn't had the look for a first round back since his rookie year. I'll be keeping an eye on Gordon and Davis for the reason of the college season.

If you don't mind, do you have any top picks at WR other than Cooper?

WR is pretty weak this year compared to last... Sammie Coates is decent, Cooper is good, maybe Dorial Green-Beckham carries some hype into the draft? None of these compare to Watkins or Evans IMO and they would have been fighting with Benjamin and ODB to be the next pick.

Cooper will be viewed as a top 10 pick by draft time IMO. So he's on par with Watkins/Evans. Coates has a lot of potential but hasn't done much this year. Probably a late 1st guy. He will blow up the off-season. He's a Julio-like athlete. White is probably the #2 WR right now and should be a mid 1st rounder. I'm curious as to what his measurables are going to look like.

 

[bigmarc27]

Yeldon was who I had in mind but he hasn't had the look for a first round back since his rookie year. I'll be keeping an eye on Gordon and Davis for the reason of the college season.

If you don't mind, do you have any top picks at WR other than Cooper?

WR is pretty weak this year compared to last... Sammie Coates is decent, Cooper is good, maybe Dorial Green-Beckham carries some hype into the draft? None of these compare to Watkins or Evans IMO and they would have been fighting with Benjamin and ODB to be the next pick.

Cooper will be viewed as a top 10 pick by draft time IMO. So he's on par with Watkins/Evans. Coates has a lot of potential but hasn't done much this year. Probably a late 1st guy. He will blow up the off-season. He's a Julio-like athlete. White is probably the #2 WR right now and should be a mid 1st rounder. I'm curious as to what his measurables are going to look like.

Cooper is the best in this draft and could go top 10, but I don't think he's on the same level as Watkins/Evans. I just don't see it at all.

 

[EBF]

If you don't mind, do you have any top picks at WR other than Cooper?

Ty Montgomery will get a lot of love from the NFL, especially after the combine. I don't know if he's going to be a first round pick, but it wouldn't totally shock me either. Check out this TD he scored last weekend: http://youtu.be/zuuRoztXFFc?t=30s.

I think this is just an average WR class. I would say Cooper, Funchess, Mongtomery, Parker, Diggs, and Green-Beckham are probably the best prospects.

 

[Concept Coop]

I think this is just an average WR class. I would say Cooper, Funchess, Mongtomery, Parker, Diggs, and Green-Beckham are probably the best prospects.

I agree. I'll say this; I was late to the Cooper hype, but am now sold. He's a Sammy/Evans level prospect, IMO.

I also like Strong and White. I need to make it a point to watch more of the Auburn duo.

 

[Adam Harstad]

It's a close call, but I'll take Charles's extra 1.2 years of age over Murray's more extensive history of leg injuries. I'm a bit more wary of apparently injury-prone guys than I used to be, after seeing guys like McFadden, Stewart, Nicks, Britt, and Amendola experience some combination of recurring injuries and sapped ability. And I do love that Andy Reid offense for a back who's as good a receiver as Charles.

This season it's basically a tossup, maybe leaning slightly towards Murray. I expect Murray to have a higher ppg as long as he stays healthy, but I think Charles has a better chance of being on the field for the fantasy playoffs. (That's a neglected disadvantage of injury prone players: the games that players are most likely to miss due to injury are the most important ones of the fantasy season.)

Yeah, totally reasonable, I was just curious what was swinging it for you. I could see someone thinking Charles was going to be better this year, but Murray would have more left in the future. I could see someone thinking Murray would be better this year, but Charles was going to have more left in the future. That's partly what makes it such an interesting comparison.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Thought you were down on Murray as overrated before the season started but turns out it was EBF. His top 2 overrated backs in July: Bell and Murray. To be fair, most of the media entirely missed on Bell too, as the offseason talk was all about would-he-or-wouldn't-he lose goal line carries to Blount. I guess they forgot to mention or notice that he dropped weight and is now shiftier than McCoy.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=283290&page=440#entry17043983

I always thought that "Blount in short yardage" talk was kind of crazy, for reasons I detailed here.

 

[JackReacher]

Thought you were down on Murray as overrated before the season started but turns out it was EBF. His top 2 overrated backs in July: Bell and Murray. To be fair, most of the media entirely missed on Bell too, as the offseason talk was all about would-he-or-wouldn't-he lose goal line carries to Blount. I guess they forgot to mention or notice that he dropped weight and is now shiftier than McCoy.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=283290&page=440#entry17043983

I always thought that "Blount in short yardage" talk was kind of crazy, for reasons I detailed here.

Point well taken although Blount has 2 tds so far, Bell 1

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Not for nothing, but are we sure Blount isn't getting more of the short yardage work than we realize because Pitt has had so little short yardage work total?

Bell has 72% of the carries for Pittsburgh on the season, but when you look at carries inside the 10, 3rd and short, and 4th and short Bell has 50% of the carries. He also has 0 TDs in those scenarios while Blount has 2. One of those Blount TDs came in a blowout win where Bell was done for the day, but in the other I specifically remember Blount subbing in for the play.

 

[karmarooster]

I don't think that's necessarily the point. Blount may vulture some TDs this year. The point is that the offseason talk missed the mark by focusing on a short term issue like that without realizing that Bell had changed significantly as a runner. Apparently the process of dropping weight started back at MSU. But I don't recall reading any kind of article about it this summer. Conventional wisdom was that he was a big back with nimble feet; turns out he's no longer a big back and can do things I never imagined he could, like this:

http://espngrantland.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/bowedwelllitbream.gif?w=576&h=324

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Yeldon was who I had in mind but he hasn't had the look for a first round back since his rookie year. I'll be keeping an eye on Gordon and Davis for the reason of the college season.

If you don't mind, do you have any top picks at WR other than Cooper?

WR is pretty weak this year compared to last... Sammie Coates is decent, Cooper is good, maybe Dorial Green-Beckham carries some hype into the draft? None of these compare to Watkins or Evans IMO and they would have been fighting with Benjamin and ODB to be the next pick.

I think this class could absolutely be as top-heavy at WR as last years, but with far less quality depth. Funchess and White will duke it out to be this year's Evans and Cooper is at a Watkins level for me, personally. Will there be a strong second tier like Cooks/Beckham, etc.? Who knows. I personally like Diggs and Duke Williams, and then you have DeVante Parker. Then you have DGB who is an absolute wildcard.Interesting class. It's not great, but it's far above "weak" and I think it's also far above average. But we'll see how the rest of the year turns out, the combine, etc.

 

[jurb26]

Yeldon was who I had in mind but he hasn't had the look for a first round back since his rookie year. I'll be keeping an eye on Gordon and Davis for the reason of the college season.

If you don't mind, do you have any top picks at WR other than Cooper?

WR is pretty weak this year compared to last... Sammie Coates is decent, Cooper is good, maybe Dorial Green-Beckham carries some hype into the draft? None of these compare to Watkins or Evans IMO and they would have been fighting with Benjamin and ODB to be the next pick.

I think this class could absolutely be as top-heavy at WR as last years. Funchess and White will duke it out to be this year's Evans and Cooper is at Watkins level for me, personally. Will there be a strong second tier of Cooks/Beckham, etc.? Who knows. I personally like Diggs and Duke Williams. Then you have DGB who is an absolute wildcard.

Yeah, I don't buy this class as weak at all with WRs. It's shaping up to be very good actually. Cooper stepping up to a top 10 talent, like we've hoped he could be for years, adds a ton of value to the class. Also, White has made a huge impression and come somewhat out of nowhere to add another potential 1st round talent to the class. It is going to be hard to match last years overall depth and sheer volume of very good prospects but this years is looking above average for sure.

 

[Mingooch]

I too love about the top 16 or so picks, then I see a drop off depending on who declares. Not the depth of last year for sure, but I like the RBs and Qbs more.

 

[maf005]

Does FBG have a dynasty ranking that current?

*edit yes but you have to sort by position

 

[Sebowski]

I didn't really have an opinion on Kendall Wright until I just watched him play on Sunday. I was really impressed. I want to try to go get him, and I need to youthenize my team anyway. I can be very easily clouded when I start to like someone though. What are the thoughts in here on him? What kind of vet WR would you think could land him if his owner is in win-now mode?

Also, Adam, are your rankings posted anywhere?

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Anyone else noticed a huge disparity between the rankings of Doug Martin and his actual trade value in leagues? FBG still has him as RB12 in their latest rankings, ahead of Arian Foster yet when offering him plus more for Foster to a rebuilding team in a league I was told it was ridiculous to even mention the two guys together.

All of the dynasty rankings I've seen updated within the last week or two still have him in the RB10-RB18 range but his trade value seems to be more like RB45 with most people convinced that his career is basically over.

 

[shader]

I didn't really have an opinion on Kendall Wright until I just watched him play on Sunday. I was really impressed. I want to try to go get him, and I need to youthenize my team anyway. I can be very easily clouded when I start to like someone though. What are the thoughts in here on him? What kind of vet WR would you think could land him if his owner is in win-now mode?

Also, Adam, are your rankings posted anywhere?

Kendall Wright (and Justin Hunter for that matter) are extremely cheap right now. This is the time to get him. I don't think you'd have to give up a lot. From a pure talent perspective, the time is now. It will never be as bad as it is, coming off of a bunch of Charlie Whitehurst games.

 

[Concept Coop]

Anyone else noticed a huge disparity between the rankings of Doug Martin and his actual trade value in leagues? FBG still has him as RB12 in their latest rankings, ahead of Arian Foster yet when offering him plus more for Foster to a rebuilding team in a league I was told it was ridiculous to even mention the two guys together.

All of the dynasty rankings I've seen updated within the last week or two still have him in the RB10-RB18 range but his trade value seems to be more like RB45 with most people convinced that his career is basically over.

Same thing happened with Richardson last year. A lot of raknings had him top 10 going into the season, even. The rankings will catch up and eventually be closer to his trade value.

As for Martin--he's a hard guy to get a grasp on right now; for me, at least. I think Sims is a must own cuff and that can make things tricky in both moving and acquiring Martin.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Anyone else noticed a huge disparity between the rankings of Doug Martin and his actual trade value in leagues? FBG still has him as RB12 in their latest rankings, ahead of Arian Foster yet when offering him plus more for Foster to a rebuilding team in a league I was told it was ridiculous to even mention the two guys together.

All of the dynasty rankings I've seen updated within the last week or two still have him in the RB10-RB18 range but his trade value seems to be more like RB45 with most people convinced that his career is basically over.

It's always hard to trade a guy when he's performing terribly, especially when its over an extended period of time. Personally I don't see how anyone could consider him RB 12 at this point to be honest. He's looked very bad - hasn't really looked any better than a journeyman backup - and is faced with Sims being back in the mix soon.

 

[EBF]

The whole team is garbage and he really hasn't carried the ball that much. I'd still take a shot on him for a late 1st if people are really as down on him as you're suggesting.

 

[Concept Coop]

The whole team is garbage and he really hasn't carried the ball that much. I'd still take a shot on him for a late 1st if people are really as down on him as you're suggesting.

I agree with this and would pay a late first, if I could also grab Sims for a late 2nd. I'd much rather pay 1/2 for the duo than 1 for Doug. I'd actually rather pay the 2 for Sims that the 1 for Doug, personally.

 

[ex-ghost]

Thoughts on L Murray and J Gray looking forward, dynasty wise?

Murray does not seem to have much in competition ahead of him. Any insight on length of contracts for McFadden and MJD?

Gray is in the middle of the RB mess Patriots, but they seem to like him.

 

[ChuckLiddell]

Thoughts on L Murray and J Gray looking forward, dynasty wise?

Murray does not seem to have much in competition ahead of him. Any insight on length of contracts for McFadden and MJD?

Gray is in the middle of the RB mess Patriots, but they seem to like him.

I've been frustrated by the Raiders with regard to L.Murray. Its not like they have a stud in front of him. He gets no carries. Not even when MJD was out. I've been hanging on for a while in both of the dynasty leagues that I play in, but its starting to appear as though the Raiders dont believe they have anything in him. If they even had hope that there might be something there, you would think that they would give him 4-6 carries a game to see what he can do. Im afraid to cut him, because I keep thinking that they will come to the realization that they are not making the playoffs, and that neither McFadden nor MJD represent any part of their future - which would potentially lead to some playing time for Murray. But, it hasnt happened yet, and so far I havent seen a hint that it will be happening anytime soon. Maybe he just sucks, and they have seen what they need to see?

 

[EBF]

I think you should want to buy the guy because you think he's a starting caliber talent, not because his team has nothing else. Teams very rarely end up starting a player simply because they have nobody else. What they'll probably do instead of letting a late-round RB with no track record inherit the job, is go out and find somebody better in the draft or free agency. So unless I were sold that Murray is a great talent, I wouldn't be that excited about his opportunity. The same goes for Gray. I did like Gray at Notre Dame before he got hurt, but he couldn't stick with the Dolphins last season and is probably just a journeyman talent.

When I look at backups, I look at guys who have given some reason(s) to think they're more than just your dime-a-dozen filler. That could be former high picks like Michael and Hyde, or guys who have actually flashed in NFL games like Bryce Brown. The majority of guys who eventually emerge are not going to come completely out of nowhere.

 

[ex-ghost]

I tend to agree with you. If they thought they had something, they would have given him a few carries, at least.

 

[Concept Coop]

Murray does not seem to have much in competition ahead of him. Any insight on length of contracts for McFadden and MJD?

I personally don't have any hope for Murray, and would take anything I could get for him (3rd, for example). He appears to have a clear path now, but only because McFadden and MJD are older. But they'll be replaced rather easily. There is next to 0 chance that the Raiders go into next season with him being the guy, in my personal opinion. If he can't beat out the old guys, or even carve out a small role, I don't like his chances with increased competition.

 

[ex-ghost]

I think you should want to buy the guy because you think he's a starting caliber talent, not because his team has nothing else. Teams very rarely end up starting a player simply because they have nobody else. What they'll probably do instead of letting a late-round RB with no track record inherit the job, is go out and find somebody better in the draft or free agency. So unless I were sold that Murray is a great talent, I wouldn't be that excited about his opportunity. The same goes for Gray. I did like Gray at Notre Dame before he got hurt, but he couldn't stick with the Dolphins last season and is probably just a journeyman talent.

When I look at backups, I look at guys who have given some reason(s) to think they're more than just your dime-a-dozen filler. That could be former high picks like Michael and Hyde, or guys who have actually flashed in NFL games like Bryce Brown. The majority of guys who eventually emerge are not going to come completely out of nowhere.

So do you feel that Murray and Gray are similar talents, journeyman players?

 

[FUBAR]

I didn't really have an opinion on Kendall Wright until I just watched him play on Sunday. I was really impressed. I want to try to go get him, and I need to youthenize my team anyway. I can be very easily clouded when I start to like someone though. What are the thoughts in here on him? What kind of vet WR would you think could land him if his owner is in win-now mode?

Also, Adam, are your rankings posted anywhere?

Good question. I like Wright a lot, but he's probably at his low point right now. If his owner is all-in on winning now and needed a WR, you might offer a Golden Tate, AJ, VJax or Edelman. E Sanders possibly as well.

 

[EBF]

I think you should want to buy the guy because you think he's a starting caliber talent, not because his team has nothing else. Teams very rarely end up starting a player simply because they have nobody else. What they'll probably do instead of letting a late-round RB with no track record inherit the job, is go out and find somebody better in the draft or free agency. So unless I were sold that Murray is a great talent, I wouldn't be that excited about his opportunity. The same goes for Gray. I did like Gray at Notre Dame before he got hurt, but he couldn't stick with the Dolphins last season and is probably just a journeyman talent.

When I look at backups, I look at guys who have given some reason(s) to think they're more than just your dime-a-dozen filler. That could be former high picks like Michael and Hyde, or guys who have actually flashed in NFL games like Bryce Brown. The majority of guys who eventually emerge are not going to come completely out of nowhere.

So do you feel that Murray and Gray are similar talents, journeyman players?

As of right now I don't have any reason to think they're any better than the typical NFL backup.

 

[FUBAR]

Yeldon was who I had in mind but he hasn't had the look for a first round back since his rookie year. I'll be keeping an eye on Gordon and Davis for the reason of the college season.

If you don't mind, do you have any top picks at WR other than Cooper?

WR is pretty weak this year compared to last... Sammie Coates is decent, Cooper is good, maybe Dorial Green-Beckham carries some hype into the draft? None of these compare to Watkins or Evans IMO and they would have been fighting with Benjamin and ODB to be the next pick.

Guess it depends who you talk to, but from what I've read Cooper is on par with Watkins. Haven't watched him enough to form my own opinion.

 

[EBF]

I think you should want to buy the guy because you think he's a starting caliber talent, not because his team has nothing else. Teams very rarely end up starting a player simply because they have nobody else. What they'll probably do instead of letting a late-round RB with no track record inherit the job, is go out and find somebody better in the draft or free agency. So unless I were sold that Murray is a great talent, I wouldn't be that excited about his opportunity. The same goes for Gray. I did like Gray at Notre Dame before he got hurt, but he couldn't stick with the Dolphins last season and is probably just a journeyman talent.

When I look at backups, I look at guys who have given some reason(s) to think they're more than just your dime-a-dozen filler. That could be former high picks like Michael and Hyde, or guys who have actually flashed in NFL games like Bryce Brown. The majority of guys who eventually emerge are not going to come completely out of nowhere.

So do you feel that Murray and Gray are similar talents, journeyman players?

As of right now I don't have any reason to think they're any better than the typical NFL backup.

Having said that, I would take a waiver flyer on Gray. I just wouldn't pay anything of note to get him.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Also, Adam, are your rankings posted anywhere?

Yup, I'm in with the other FBGs staff rankings. You'll probably have to sort by position to see them- I try to get the positional rankings updated every other week or so, but the overall rankings often get neglected for a while.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Anyone else noticed a huge disparity between the rankings of Doug Martin and his actual trade value in leagues? FBG still has him as RB12 in their latest rankings, ahead of Arian Foster yet when offering him plus more for Foster to a rebuilding team in a league I was told it was ridiculous to even mention the two guys together.

All of the dynasty rankings I've seen updated within the last week or two still have him in the RB10-RB18 range but his trade value seems to be more like RB45 with most people convinced that his career is basically over.

I had him 14th (and behind Foster) two weeks ago, and he'll probably keep sliding for me. Part of it is just that it's hard to bury a guy who is young and has shown pretty much anything in the current RB environment. For Doug Martin to fall out of my top 20, he'd have to wind up behind Mark Ingram, who is (surprisingly enough) a year younger, but who has been a total bust for his career so far and could be playing anywhere next year. He'd have to fall behind guys like Joique Bell, who is already 28, and Zac Stacy, who seems to have already lost his job. There's really only so far that a 25-year-old RB with a top-3 finish on his resume can realistically fall.

If I could get Martin for RB45-type prices (or even RB35-type prices), I would jump at that chance. Worst case scenario, he loses his job in Tampa and hits the open market in 2016 as a 27-year-old former first round pick with some early-career success. There'll be a market for a guy like that. Best case scenario, he reasserts himself and carves out a nice fantasy role in the meantime. No matter how his career goes, I'm betting the odds are high that there will at least be window where I can sell him for a profit if I buy him at RB4 prices today.

 

[jdoggydogg]

What are the group's thoughts on Tre Mason long term?

Feels like the guy has enough talent to be a monster if he improves his pass blocking.

 

[Concept Coop]

What are the group's thoughts on Tre Mason long term?

Feels like the guy has enough talent to be a monster if he improves his pass blocking.

The running ability is there. Looks more good than special, to my eyes, however. Very solid opportunity. Assuming he ends the season as the guy, as he has been the last 2 weeks, he's top 10 as a 21 YO starting back in a bell cow role.

 

[jdoggydogg]

What are the group's thoughts on Tre Mason long term?

Feels like the guy has enough talent to be a monster if he improves his pass blocking.

The running ability is there. Looks more good than special, to my eyes, however. Very solid opportunity. Assuming he ends the season as the guy, as he has been the last 2 weeks, he's top 10 as a 21 YO starting back in a bell cow role.

I guess if Ronnie Hillman can do well then Mason can

 

[BeTheMatch]

To a rebuilding team with smallish rosters, is Bernard Pierce even worth a roster spot at this point, or is it over for him?

 

[EBF]

His value has cratered, but he strikes me as a guy who could make some noise in the future if given an opportunity. I still think he's a quality player. He's just not worthy of his offseason dynasty ranking. Part of the problem with Pierce is that he's extremely brittle. Lots of concussions and minor little dings throughout his career. That doesn't bode well for what might happen if someone tried to make him the guy. I think he will stick around the league for a while and that he still has handcuff/flyer value, but his stats have been ugly two years running and he's riding the pine behind a journeyman. Not good. I wish I had sold him some places, but when I've dangled him in the past he has never generated any real interest above the level of what he initially cost in the rookie drafts (late 2nd round rookie picks).

 

[voiceofunreason]

To a rebuilding team with smallish rosters, is Bernard Pierce even worth a roster spot at this point, or is it over for him?

Guys always have some value but realistically the guy has looked awful this year and last. Not sure why they are playing him over Taliaferro right now but I think the clock is ticking.

 

[EastonBlues22]

To a rebuilding team with smallish rosters, is Bernard Pierce even worth a roster spot at this point, or is it over for him?

I outright dropped him in a dynasty league with large rosters, and I don't regret it at all.

They don't like to use him in the passing game, and they have a younger/less brittle guy who offers everything Pierce does with better passing game chops (and without the extended history of sucking).

Just don't see the upside anymore.

 

[EastonBlues22]

What are the group's thoughts on Tre Mason long term?

Feels like the guy has enough talent to be a monster if he improves his pass blocking.

The running ability is there. Looks more good than special, to my eyes, however. Very solid opportunity. Assuming he ends the season as the guy, as he has been the last 2 weeks, he's top 10 as a 21 YO starting back in a bell cow role.

I don't think he's shown the passing game chops yet to be considered a bell cow candidate as soon as next year. St. Louis definitely hasn't used him in those situations to this point. He's run 8 routes all year with 6 of those coming in the last game (0 targets), and has just 2 pass blocking opportunities on the year (1 sack allowed) per PFF.

I see him as a decent bet to be the early down half of a RBBC in an offense that likes to run, with the potential to grow into a 3 down role in a few years if he progresses. Personally, I doubt he hits that ceiling.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

He's run 8 routes all year with 6 of those coming in the last game (0 targets), and has just 2 pass blocking opportunities on the year (1 sack allowed) per PFF.

.

He's only been active for the last two games.

 

[Denver724]

To a rebuilding team with smallish rosters, is Bernard Pierce even worth a roster spot at this point, or is it over for him?

I outright dropped him in a dynasty league with large rosters, and I don't regret it at all.

They don't like to use him in the passing game, and they have a younger/less brittle guy who offers everything Pierce does with better passing game chops (and without the extended history of sucking).

Just don't see the upside anymore.

I'm hoping he eventually gets traded. I think he has talent, but that backfield is a mess. I am hoping Taliaferro gets the job eventually. Forsett is a FA after this season I think.

 

[EastonBlues22]

He's run 8 routes all year with 6 of those coming in the last game (0 targets), and has just 2 pass blocking opportunities on the year (1 sack allowed) per PFF.

.

He's only been active for the last two games.

That's a fair point.

One out of six total RB targets was directed his way this past week, with two pass block attempts (one pressure allowed).

I suppose it's possible that the Rams might use him as the primary running back in the passing game in 2015, but I still don't think there's much reason to believe that it's likely to occur.

 

[ctt8410]

So where are you guys slotting Lacy in your RB rankings?

I'm not updating again until next Monday/Tuesday, but it's looking likely Lacy will be in my top 10 once I do.

Do you mind if I ask why you're so low on Alshon Jeffery (WR32)? He has measurables and pedigree and seems to be in the midst of a 2nd year breakout with a stable (if not particularly QB rich) franchise and yet he falls behind low-upside guys like Amendola and Shorts.

Well, for starters, I don't view either Amendola or Shorts as anything close to "low-upside" guys in PPR leagues. Shorts' numbers after taking over as a starter last year were insane- something like a 1400 yard pace, IIRC. If not for the concussion worries, Shorts would be higher, still. As for Amendola... Julian Edelman is currently WR20 in PPR leagues. JULIAN EDELMAN. Edelman is a bare shadow of Amendola. If Amendola can stay healthy (yeah, yeah, I know- big if), he could easily put up top-12 numbers as the slot receiver in the Patriots' offense. If anything, I would characterize Amendola and Shorts as just the opposite of "low-upside"; I'd call them huge high-risk, high-reward plays.

To some extent, there's a bit of a numbers crunch at receiver. There are more than 10 guys I'd love to fit into my 20-29 range right now, and some of them get squeezed out. Why Alshon? Because I try to make a point of downgrading players who have had a huge game below where my gut reaction would have me put them. Even at the half-season mark, one huge game can have a huge impact on total numbers when there hasn't been enough of a chance for regression to do its work yet. Intuitively, I see an exciting young prospect like Alshon have a monster game and my first instinct is to just go nuts and shoot them up the board. I find that slightly discounting guys with a huge game on their resume often prevents me from overreacting and doing something that I'll regret later.

I guess we disagree on what constitutes high upside. Shorts is #2 in the NFL in targets this year and he's WR19 in ppr scoring. This is his upside.

Amendola's a 28-year old who can't stay healthy and whose best season is 85/689/3 and WR30 in ppr. He's not Edelman, but he's also not Welker.

It's perfectly within reason to cast a skeptical eye towards Jeffery based on the small sample size, but I don't see how he's a lower ceiling guy than those 2 when he's shown the ability to put up a 37-pointer within the first 16 games of his career.

Since this post:

Jeffery - 42/632/4

Amendola - 22/274/2

Shorts - 20/212/2

Now seems like a good time to reiterate that upside can be deceptive. A mediocre player with high volume from a bad QB can give the illusion of higher upside when he's already peaked. The same can be said for a mediocre, injury-prone talent replacing the generational talent with a HOF QB. It was a fool's errand a month ago to assume these players had any upside beyond their recent production and it rings even truer now.

Amendola was dropped in my 16-team dynasty today and it reminded me of this post. In the year since:

Jeffery - 94/1143/8 in 16 games

Shorts - 43/428/3 in 10 games

Amendola - 42/506/3 in 14 games

 

[Adam Harstad]

[SIZE=11.8181819915771px]Amendola was dropped in my 16-team dynasty today and it reminded me of this post. In the year since:[/SIZE]

Jeffery - 94/1143/8 in 16 games

Shorts - 43/428/3 in 10 games

Amendola - 42/506/3 in 14 games

There's two threads at play here. Was Alshon Jeffery too low in my rankings at the time? Yeah, that one's been answered pretty conclusively. I have Alshon Jeffery in my top 10 now, so obviously leaving him outside of my top 30 was a mistake.

But are Cecil Shorts and Danny Amendola "low upside" receivers? You keep posting their production to date, and that does nothing to answer the original question. The slot WR position in New England is an extremely high-upside position in PPR (setting aside Wes Welker, Julian Edelman has 102/1061/5 in 16 games since the post in question- just 1 ppg behind Alshon Jeffery over that span- despite the fact that Julian Edelman isn't a very good receiver, as evidenced by his lack of interest on the free agent market). Now I was clearly wrong for thinking that Amendola was going to win that role, but I wasn't wrong in thinking that that role was a valuable one and Amendola would be valuable if he did win it. Danny Amendola was a massive bust. That doesn't mean he didn't have upside.

As for Shorts... Jacksonville's entire offense fell apart and they brought in a bunch of receivers, and Shorts is pretty much fantasy junk at this point. That sucks. I was wrong for having him so high. But again, none of this makes him a "low-upside" receiver. Again, he was a beast in 2012. At the time of my post in 2013 he was basically an 80-yard-a-game receiver outside of getting blanked by Denver (did he leave that game early with an injury?). In the 16 games prior to that post, he had 86/1265/6 despite getting 0 catches in one of those games. Low upside? I just don't see it. There was nothing wrong with Shorts' upside.

Edit: the same logic that declared Danny Amendola a "low-upside" receiver would have also declared Emmanuel Sanders a "low-upside" receiver this last offseason.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Amendola was dropped in my 16-team dynasty today and it reminded me of this post. In the year since:

Jeffery - 94/1143/8 in 16 games

Shorts - 43/428/3 in 10 games

Amendola - 42/506/3 in 14 games

There's two threads at play here. Was Alshon Jeffery too low in my rankings at the time? Yeah, that one's been answered pretty conclusively. I have Alshon Jeffery in my top 10 now, so obviously leaving him outside of my top 30 was a mistake.

But are Cecil Shorts and Danny Amendola "low upside" receivers? You keep posting their production to date, and that does nothing to answer the original question. The slot WR position in New England is an extremely high-upside position in PPR (setting aside Wes Welker, Julian Edelman has 102/1061/5 in 16 games since the post in question- just 1 ppg behind Alshon Jeffery over that span- despite the fact that Julian Edelman isn't a very good receiver, as evidenced by his lack of interest on the free agent market). Now I was clearly wrong for thinking that Amendola was going to win that role, but I wasn't wrong in thinking that that role was a valuable one and Amendola would be valuable if he did win it. Danny Amendola was a massive bust. That doesn't mean he didn't have upside.

As for Shorts... Jacksonville's entire offense fell apart and they brought in a bunch of receivers, and Shorts is pretty much fantasy junk at this point. That sucks. I was wrong for having him so high. But again, none of this makes him a "low-upside" receiver. Again, he was a beast in 2012. At the time of my post in 2013 he was basically an 80-yard-a-game receiver outside of getting blanked by Denver (did he leave that game early with an injury?). In the 16 games prior to that post, he had 86/1265/6 despite getting 0 catches in one of those games. Low upside? I just don't see it. There was nothing wrong with Shorts' upside.

Edit: the same logic that declared Danny Amendola a "low-upside" receiver would have also declared Emmanuel Sanders a "low-upside" receiver this last offseason.

Yes. They are both low floor and low ceiling receivers.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Yes. They are both low floor and low ceiling receivers.

Amendola and Shorts? Or Amendola and Sanders?