Dynasty Rankings (5 Viewers)

[Gottabesweet]

Just landed Harvin at 1.9 Hoping your right

 

[THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA]

Well F&L your mancrush for ole Harvin made me feel wierd i didnt have him on any of my 5 dynasty teams.

I just landed him on 2 of them:

1. A.Bryant and L.Robinson for Harvin and C.Henry

2. A.Gonzo and D.Hester for TO and Harvin.

Now while i dont need instant results from him on either team im hoping he WOW us for the time being and keep his TRADE VALUE high.

 

[jek187]

I would definitely try to jump up to grab Moreno if you can swing it. Failing that, I'd grab Harvin at No. 4.

You like Harvin more than Brown?

damn i've been fighting this i have for harvin at the 4th pick i have coming up soon, you're not helping, are you really sold on him at 4 F&L?

Personally, I would take him at No. 3 and would consider him at No. 2.

Ok, I assume you have Moreno as your #1 rookie. The next 3 are some combination of Wells, Crabtree, and Harvin. You say you'd take Harvin at #3, which implies to me that there's someone who's the clear-cut #4. Is that person Crabtree now that he's showing a bit more diva so it's a debate at #2 between Crabtree and Wells? Or is Wells your #4 (meaning you value a WR20/21 considerably higher than your RB13), and so it's a debate at #2 between Harvin and Crabtree?Note: I can appreciate the Harvin love. I'm right with you when it comes to the philosophy of swinging for the fences. It just seems a bit inconsistent to me to take a WR21 over a guy ranked higher at the same position (albeit just barely), and/or taking him over a RB13. As always, thanks for putting your thoughts out there. It's much appreciated.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I would definitely try to jump up to grab Moreno if you can swing it. Failing that, I'd grab Harvin at No. 4.

You like Harvin more than Brown?

damn i've been fighting this i have for harvin at the 4th pick i have coming up soon, you're not helping, are you really sold on him at 4 F&L?

Personally, I would take him at No. 3 and would consider him at No. 2.

Ok, I assume you have Moreno as your #1 rookie. The next 3 are some combination of Wells, Crabtree, and Harvin. You say you'd take Harvin at #3, which implies to me that there's someone who's the clear-cut #4. Is that person Crabtree now that he's showing a bit more diva so it's a debate at #2 between Crabtree and Wells? Or is Wells your #4 (meaning you value a WR20/21 considerably higher than your RB13), and so it's a debate at #2 between Harvin and Crabtree?Note: I can appreciate the Harvin love. I'm right with you when it comes to the philosophy of swinging for the fences. It just seems a bit inconsistent to me to take a WR21 over a guy ranked higher at the same position (albeit just barely), and/or taking him over a RB13. As always, thanks for putting your thoughts out there. It's much appreciated.

I try not to go too overboard with my "instincts" on the blog rankings ... or at least I try to reel them in a bit. I would take more chances with my own teams than I would with public rankings.If I was drafting right now, the rookies would probably look like this:1. Moreno2. Debate b/w Harvin & Wells4. Crabtree5. D.Brown6. S.Greene

 

[az_prof]

As a Viking fan I hope FL is right about Harvin, but I am not as optimistic. First, he is not a pure receiver and will need to improve his receiving skills. Yes, the Vikings will try to involve him in the run game, but you can only run so many reverses and end arounds. Finally, he plays for a team that still does not have an elite QB and does have an elite RB who will command the lion share of touches in that offense. He may develop into a top 10 WR and I hope he does, but the odds for rookie WRs are higher than for rookie RBs.

Everyone loves Crabtree, and he is talented, but he isn't even signed yet and will have a hard time displacing Morgan and Bruce this year. Add to that the fact that SF does not have a QB and I am lukewarm on him.

Wells and Brown? I took Brown with the 1.04 and a few weeks later the guy who took Wells at 1.03 offered me a straight up trade. I declined. Why? I like Brown's character and situation and history much more. Wells has an easier path to starting this year (but Addai has injury and producitivity questions) and may be more talented, but the talent difference is much less than the other differences that favor Brown. Brown had one of the best Combine performances (top performer in six of seven categories), so the idea that he lacks physical skills is not really accurate. Brown has a better body of work from college where he led all rushers last season. Brown has shown he can carry the ball alot and is durable; Wells has not proven that he is durable. Wells is a flake and Brown is a leader and straight arrow with a good work ethic. Brown is better in PPR as he showed in the Combine that he can catch the ball very well and he plays for a team that will pass to the HB alot. Brown was picked higher in the draft by a team that historically has a more potent offense.

1) Moreno--he is arguably the most talented RB and is in a situation where he will be featured.

2) Donald Brown

3) Crabtree

4) Wells

5) Maclin--great QB, great passing offense, and a good situation for a young WR

6) Nicks--good QB, NFL ready WR, clear opening to start quickly.

7) Britt

8) Heys

9) Harvin

 

[BradtheAg]

great thread, thanks to fear & loathing for all your work here and on your blog.

my question is a bit abstract in that it involves the ability to draft college players in a start-up draft. there are 12 teams, 22 roster spots. if you take a college guy they take up a roster spot until they reach the NFL. at that point they begin earning points for stats.

i'm really intrigued with the idea of grabbing a guy like c.j. spiller late in the draft, but i'm having trouble valuing the college guys. i'm only interested in RBs, as i think QBs and WRs take too long to become productive enough to justify holding the roster spot. would you take advantage of this opportunity and snag a college RB or two? if so, how would you measure their value against a guy who is already in the NFL?

 

[thriftyrocker]

As a Viking fan I hope FL is right about Harvin, but I am not as optimistic. First, he is not a pure receiver and will need to improve his receiving skills. Yes, the Vikings will try to involve him in the run game, but you can only run so many reverses and end arounds.

I am seeing Harvin projected for 80-100 carries this year. I agree he is not going to get that many carries on end arounds. I think the assumption is he will be used just as he was at Florida and line up at RB some plays, whether it's in place of or right beside ADP. If he does that 5+ times a game, he has immediate value even if he's only a 30-40 catch guy to start with. If you take the low end and estimate 80 carries and 30 receptions, that would probably be 850-900 total yards.I think the Favre news is big for him as far as immediate value. With Favre, they don't run gimmicks. Their gimmicks would have been Brett saying "everyone go deep". Without Favre, why not?

 

[jek187]

I try not to go too overboard with my "instincts" on the blog rankings ... or at least I try to reel them in a bit. I would take more chances with my own teams than I would with public rankings.If I was drafting right now, the rookies would probably look like this:1. Moreno2. Debate b/w Harvin & Wells4. Crabtree5. D.Brown6. S.Greene

Very interesting, and I can understand why you reel the instincts. Are there other players you've held yourself in check for, publicly? I'm trying to guess from your writings who else they'd be, Ryan higher than top 5? Fitz maybe in a tier by himself? LDT lower than RB23? I know your leaguemates probably read this thread, so certainly respect you not answering here. However, should you not have any compunctions against speaking freely here, I'd love to hear some real "crazy talk". Harvin #2 rookie? Great! Tell me more.

 

[Tau837]

Hey F&L, can you point me to where you define or discuss how you arrive at your value scores? I probably missed it on your blog but didn't see a handy link to that info. It's probably in this thread, but it's 69 pages long...

One specific thing I'm interested in is whether you think they are comparable across positions. That is, can I assume that because Steven Jackson has a value score of 96 and Randy Moss has a value score of 94, you would rank Jackson higher in an overall ranking? (I didn't see an overall ranking on the blog, so please let me know if I missed that.)

Thanks.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Hey F&L, can you point me to where you define or discuss how you arrive at your value scores? I probably missed it on your blog but didn't see a handy link to that info. It's probably in this thread, but it's 69 pages long...

One specific thing I'm interested in is whether you think they are comparable across positions. That is, can I assume that because Steven Jackson has a value score of 96 and Randy Moss has a value score of 94, you would rank Jackson higher in an overall ranking? (I didn't see an overall ranking on the blog, so please let me know if I missed that.)

Thanks.

There's no mathematical formula, and the rankings aren't meant to be comparable across positions. I don't think that's possible with all of the different scoring systems we use. I recently did a Top-200 overall for Rotoworld, but I think they placed it in the Draft Guide ($15).

I'm thinking about trying to re-do the Dynasty Mock Draft that I did back in February. That would basically be a Top-200 overall, and I might be able to get Rotoworld to post it as an article instead of using it in the Draft Guide. I'll have to talk to them about it.

 

[Tau837]

Hey F&L, can you point me to where you define or discuss how you arrive at your value scores? I probably missed it on your blog but didn't see a handy link to that info. It's probably in this thread, but it's 69 pages long...

One specific thing I'm interested in is whether you think they are comparable across positions. That is, can I assume that because Steven Jackson has a value score of 96 and Randy Moss has a value score of 94, you would rank Jackson higher in an overall ranking? (I didn't see an overall ranking on the blog, so please let me know if I missed that.)

Thanks.

There's no mathematical formula, and the rankings aren't meant to be comparable across positions. I don't think that's possible with all of the different scoring systems we use. I recently did a Top-200 overall for Rotoworld, but I think they placed it in the Draft Guide ($15).

I'm thinking about trying to re-do the Dynasty Mock Draft that I did back in February. That would basically be a Top-200 overall, and I might be able to get Rotoworld to post it as an article instead of using it in the Draft Guide. I'll have to talk to them about it.

Thanks for the quick response. I was hoping they'd compare across positions but figured they probably wouldn't/couldn't. It would be great if you could do a top 200 overall at some point.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I try not to go too overboard with my "instincts" on the blog rankings ... or at least I try to reel them in a bit. I would take more chances with my own teams than I would with public rankings.If I was drafting right now, the rookies would probably look like this:1. Moreno2. Debate b/w Harvin & Wells4. Crabtree5. D.Brown6. S.Greene

Very interesting, and I can understand why you reel the instincts. Are there other players you've held yourself in check for, publicly? I'm trying to guess from your writings who else they'd be, Ryan higher than top 5? Fitz maybe in a tier by himself? LDT lower than RB23? I know your leaguemates probably read this thread, so certainly respect you not answering here. However, should you not have any compunctions against speaking freely here, I'd love to hear some real "crazy talk". Harvin #2 rookie? Great! Tell me more.

It really has nothing to do with leaguemates seeing it. I've come to grips with that. I just think it's borderline irresponsible to put out public rankings that push expert opinion, scouting, trends, mathematical analysis and collected wisdom to the side in favor of a gut feeling on my part. It's more of a delicate balance thing. It's admittedly more art than science, but I'm not willing to let the art smother the science.And, frankly, I don't really want the emails and comments barrage that would come with going out on too many limbs. I don't mind going out on a limb when I have a very strong opinion on a player, but there are plenty of players where we're all just guessing at how they're going to perform -- especially the rookies. The available information/knowledge gap is just too large.But to answer your request about players where I have no compunctions about speaking freely, here are the guys that I could easily rank higher -- though I know a couple of them are about as high as I can go: Matt Ryan, Big Ben, Trent Edwards, Sage Rosenfels, Michael Vick, Shaun Hill, Dennis DixonMJD, Chris Johnson, S-Jax, Frank Gore, Knowshon Moreno, Ronnie Brown, Jonathan Stewart, Pierre Thomas, Arian Foster, Jamall LeeSteve Smith, V-Jax, Lee Evans, Eddie Royal, Percy Harvin, Josh Morgan, Justin Gage, Jarrett Dillard, Steve Johnson, Chris Henry, Matt Jones, Sammie StroughterKellen Winslow, Dustin Keller, Jared Cook, Martellus Bennett, Randy McMichael, Cornelius IngramHere are the guys I'd drop even farther than I have themhilip Rivers, Tony Romo, Jay Cutler (a/k/a p_ssy), Eli, Matt Cassel, JaMarcus Russell, Daunte CulpepperClinton Portis, MBIII, Steve Slaton, Marshawn Lynch, Reggie Bush, Thomas Jones, Joseph Addai, Willie Parker, LeSean McCoy, Jerious Norwood, Leon Washington, Jerome HarrisonMarques Colston, Brandon Marshall, Braylon Edwards, Chad Ochocinco, DeSean Jackson, Antonio Bryant, Laveranues Coles, Brian Robiskie, Kevin Walter, Steve Smith (NYG)Dallas Clark, John Carlson, Jeremy Shockey, Heath Miller, Bo Scaife

 

[benm3218]

I try not to go too overboard with my "instincts" on the blog rankings ... or at least I try to reel them in a bit. I would take more chances with my own teams than I would with public rankings.If I was drafting right now, the rookies would probably look like this:1. Moreno2. Debate b/w Harvin & Wells4. Crabtree5. D.Brown6. S.Greene

Very interesting, and I can understand why you reel the instincts. Are there other players you've held yourself in check for, publicly? I'm trying to guess from your writings who else they'd be, Ryan higher than top 5? Fitz maybe in a tier by himself? LDT lower than RB23? I know your leaguemates probably read this thread, so certainly respect you not answering here. However, should you not have any compunctions against speaking freely here, I'd love to hear some real "crazy talk". Harvin #2 rookie? Great! Tell me more.

It really has nothing to do with leaguemates seeing it. I've come to grips with that. I just think it's borderline irresponsible to put out public rankings that push expert opinion, scouting, trends, mathematical analysis and collected wisdom to the side in favor of a gut feeling on my part. It's more of a delicate balance thing. It's admittedly more art than science, but I'm not willing to let the art smother the science.And, frankly, I don't really want the emails and comments barrage that would come with going out on too many limbs. I don't mind going out on a limb when I have a very strong opinion on a player, but there are plenty of players where we're all just guessing at how they're going to perform -- especially the rookies. The available information/knowledge gap is just too large.But to answer your request about players where I have no compunctions about speaking freely, here are the guys that I could easily rank higher -- though I know a couple of them are about as high as I can go: Matt Ryan, Big Ben, Trent Edwards, Sage Rosenfels, Michael Vick, Shaun Hill, Dennis DixonMJD, Chris Johnson, S-Jax, Frank Gore, Knowshon Moreno, Ronnie Brown, Jonathan Stewart, Pierre Thomas, Arian Foster, Jamall LeeSteve Smith, V-Jax, Lee Evans, Eddie Royal, Percy Harvin, Josh Morgan, Justin Gage, Jarrett Dillard, Steve Johnson, Chris Henry, Matt Jones, Sammie StroughterKellen Winslow, Dustin Keller, Jared Cook, Martellus Bennett, Randy McMichael, Cornelius IngramHere are the guys I'd drop even farther than I have themhilip Rivers, Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, Eli, Matt Cassel, JaMarcus Russell, Daunte CulpepperClinton Portis, MBIII, Steve Slaton, Marshawn Lynch, Reggie Bush, Thomas Jones, Joseph Addai, Willie Parker, LeSean McCoy, Jerious Norwood, Leon Washington, Jerome HarrisonMarques Colston, Brandon Marshall, Braylon Edwards, Chad Ochocinco, DeSean Jackson, Antonio Bryant, Laveranues Coles, Brian Robiskie, Kevin Walter, Steve Smith (NYG)Dallas Clark, John Carlson, Jeremy Shockey, Heath Miller, Bo Scaife

THANKS. awesome

 

[Tau837]

I could pull trigger on Big Ben for Rivers... Would you? Maybe Big Ben and Reggie Wayne for Rivers and Ocho Cinco? Would you?

I know you are asking F&L, but there is absolutely no way I'd trade Rivers away to get Ben. If you could get Ben and another useful player for Rivers, then maybe... but I think Rivers is a far better dynasty prospect than Big Ben.

 

[brobe4]

F$L You Rock

 

[ChuckLiddell]

I try not to go too overboard with my "instincts" on the blog rankings ... or at least I try to reel them in a bit. I would take more chances with my own teams than I would with public rankings.

If I was drafting right now, the rookies would probably look like this:

1. Moreno

2. Debate b/w Harvin & Wells

4. Crabtree

5. D.Brown

6. S.Greene

Very interesting, and I can understand why you reel the instincts. Are there other players you've held yourself in check for, publicly? I'm trying to guess from your writings who else they'd be, Ryan higher than top 5? Fitz maybe in a tier by himself? LDT lower than RB23? I know your leaguemates probably read this thread, so certainly respect you not answering here. However, should you not have any compunctions against speaking freely here, I'd love to hear some real "crazy talk". Harvin #2 rookie? Great! Tell me more.

It really has nothing to do with leaguemates seeing it. I've come to grips with that. I just think it's borderline irresponsible to put out public rankings that push expert opinion, scouting, trends, mathematical analysis and collected wisdom to the side in favor of a gut feeling on my part. It's more of a delicate balance thing. It's admittedly more art than science, but I'm not willing to let the art smother the science.

And, frankly, I don't really want the emails and comments barrage that would come with going out on too many limbs. I don't mind going out on a limb when I have a very strong opinion on a player, but there are plenty of players where we're all just guessing at how they're going to perform -- especially the rookies. The available information/knowledge gap is just too large.

But to answer your request about players where I have no compunctions about speaking freely, here are the guys that I could easily rank higher -- though I know a couple of them are about as high as I can go:

Matt Ryan, Big Ben, Trent Edwards, Sage Rosenfels, Michael Vick, Shaun Hill, Dennis Dixon

MJD, Chris Johnson, S-Jax, Frank Gore, Knowshon Moreno, Ronnie Brown, Jonathan Stewart, Pierre Thomas, Arian Foster, Jamall Lee

Steve Smith, V-Jax, Lee Evans, Eddie Royal, Percy Harvin, Josh Morgan, Justin Gage, Jarrett Dillard, Steve Johnson, Chris Henry, Matt Jones, Sammie Stroughter

Kellen Winslow, Dustin Keller, Jared Cook, Martellus Bennett, Randy McMichael, Cornelius Ingram

Here are the guys I'd drop even farther than I have them:

Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, Eli, Matt Cassel, JaMarcus Russell, Daunte Culpepper

Clinton Portis, MBIII, Steve Slaton, Marshawn Lynch, Reggie Bush, Thomas Jones, Joseph Addai, Willie Parker, LeSean McCoy, Jerious Norwood, Leon Washington, Jerome Harrison

Marques Colston, Brandon Marshall, Braylon Edwards, Chad Ochocinco, DeSean Jackson, Antonio Bryant, Laveranues Coles, Brian Robiskie, Kevin Walter, Steve Smith (NYG)

Dallas Clark, John Carlson, Jeremy Shockey, Heath Miller, Bo Scaife

When you have time, I would love to hear your thoughts on Robiskie. I have him targeted at 1.11 over Britt, Sanchez, and Heyward-Bey (although you really never know who will drop to 11 - just guessing as to what my options will be). I do not follow NCAA football closely, but from what I can gather he seems to be very NFL-ready, comes from a football lineage, and has a fairly easy road to the starting lineup. He is not a burner, but he ran a 4.5, which is fine. I was surprised to see him on your list, but I know for a fact that your opinion is more valid than mine given the fact that I only know him from youtube clips. You think 1.11 is a reach?

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I could pull trigger on Big Ben for Rivers... Would you? Maybe Big Ben and Reggie Wayne for Rivers and Ocho Cinco? Would you?

I know you are asking F&L, but there is absolutely no way I'd trade Rivers away to get Ben. If you could get Ben and another useful player for Rivers, then maybe... but I think Rivers is a far better dynasty prospect than Big Ben.

I may be the biggest Ben supporter around, but I'd still find it hard to pull the trigger on Ben-for-Rivers straight up. I'd think about it, though. It's interesting to note that Big Ben was coming off the 34 TD, 105 QB rating season a year ago whereas Rivers is coming off it this offseason. As far as Wayne & Big Ben for Rivers & Ocho, I'd probably do that one. I like Wayne a lot better than Ocho, especially in Dynasty leagues. I don't know if I'd advise someone else to do it, but I'd feel pretty comfortable doing it with my own roster.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

When you have time, I would love to hear your thoughts on Robiskie. I have him targeted at 1.11 over Britt, Sanchez, and Heyward-Bey (although you really never know who will drop to 11 - just guessing as to what my options will be). I do not follow NCAA football closely, but from what I can gather he seems to be very NFL-ready, comes from a football lineage, and has a fairly easy road to the starting lineup. He is not a burner, but he ran a 4.5, which is fine. I was surprised to see him on your list, but I know for a fact that your opinion is more valid than mine given the fact that I only know him from youtube clips. You think 1.11 is a reach?

The guy that runs twinkilling.com is a friend of mine who used to work in sports talk radio in Cincinnati. I trust him almost implicitly when it comes to Ohio State players. Here's his scouting report on Brian Robiskie, which matches up pretty well with what I've seen and read:

WR Brian Robiskie: Seems destined to be a No. 4 wide receiver who catches 18 balls a season----all of them going for first downs. I haven't seen his combine results, other than an impressive 37-inch vertical leap, but even if he runs a fast forty I'm not buying it; the guy can't get separation from anyone. Pros: Good guy; likable; smart; dependable. Cons: Slow; not fast; lacks quickness.

I think he'll become a Sean Dawkins Fantasy All-Star whereas I want a guy with a better chance to become a difference-maker. I'm always more concerned with ceilings than floors. Finding middling floors is easy. Finding high ceilings is difficult.

 

[theholdout123]

I have the #1 pick in my initial dynasty league draft and the guy at #4 wants to move up is picks 1 and 49 for 4 and 28 a fair offer? or do u think it favors one side?

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I have the #1 pick in my initial dynasty league draft and the guy at #4 wants to move up is picks 1 and 49 for 4 and 28 a fair offer? or do u think it favors one side?

Nah, I don't think that's good value.Why do you want to move out of #1? Are you targeting somebody at #4?

 

[BradtheAg]

any opinions on valuing college guys in a start up draft? i'd appreciate any input you have. thanks.

 

[benm3218]

any opinions on valuing college guys in a start up draft? i'd appreciate any input you have. thanks.

He has them ranked in here - http://dynastyrankings.blogspot.com/

 

[BradtheAg]

the only values i see on his blog are guys who are currently in the NFL and guys who will be rookies next season. i'm talking about guys who will be playing college ball next season. we have the ability to draft the rights to these guys. my question is whether or not this is something worth taking advantage of. and if so, what kind of value do you give them. obviously the drawback is zero production in year one, but if you could go back a year and draft the rights to wells or moreno in a late round, you probably would.

i'm not necessarily asking for individual ratings/values. what i'm looking for is some discussion around the ability to draft these guys and how i should approach them in a start up draft. am i better off taking a QB3 or WR5 or should i try to snag c.j. spiller or jonathan dwyer and stash them with what could be a huge payoff in future years.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

the only values i see on his blog are guys who are currently in the NFL and guys who will be rookies next season. i'm talking about guys who will be playing college ball next season. we have the ability to draft the rights to these guys. my question is whether or not this is something worth taking advantage of. and if so, what kind of value do you give them. obviously the drawback is zero production in year one, but if you could go back a year and draft the rights to wells or moreno in a late round, you probably would.i'm not necessarily asking for individual ratings/values. what i'm looking for is some discussion around the ability to draft these guys and how i should approach them in a start up draft. am i better off taking a QB3 or WR5 or should i try to snag c.j. spiller or jonathan dwyer and stash them with what could be a huge payoff in future years.

Sorry, Brad. I'm useless on this one. I've never played in a league like that, and I don't follow NCAA nearly enough to know which guys to pick up before they reach the NFL. Seriously, I've never even heard of Jonathan Dwyer.If EBF sees this post, he may be able to help you out. He follows college players closely, and I know he plays in a league where even college freshman are eligible. I'm sure we have some other prospect/college experts that follow along here, too. Maybe they want to chime in?

 

[EBF]

the only values i see on his blog are guys who are currently in the NFL and guys who will be rookies next season. i'm talking about guys who will be playing college ball next season. we have the ability to draft the rights to these guys. my question is whether or not this is something worth taking advantage of. and if so, what kind of value do you give them. obviously the drawback is zero production in year one, but if you could go back a year and draft the rights to wells or moreno in a late round, you probably would.

i'm not necessarily asking for individual ratings/values. what i'm looking for is some discussion around the ability to draft these guys and how i should approach them in a start up draft. am i better off taking a QB3 or WR5 or should i try to snag c.j. spiller or jonathan dwyer and stash them with what could be a huge payoff in future years.

You should treat the highly touted 2010 prospects the same way you should treat the 2009 rookies. Don't reach for them over proven veteran talents in the prime of their career, but consider them once the good players and prospects dry up.The big difference is that we know less about the 2010 prospects than we do about the 2009 guys. For example, we know Moreno and Wells are first round picks with the potential to start immediately, but we don't know where Jahvid Best and DeMarco Murray will be picked. Maybe they'll have terrible seasons and plummet down the draft boards. The further out you get with prospects, the more uncertainty you're dealing with.

That said, the 2010 rookies can definitely still be value picks in a startup draft.

For me, the conversation begins with Oklahoma State WR Dez Bryant. He's a possession WR in the mold of Dwayne Bowe. I think he'll be a first round pick and a solid pro. I would consider him in roughly the same range that I'd consider Percy Harvin and Hakeem Nicks. You can check him out here:

Georgia Tech RB Jonathan Dwyer is probably #2 on my list today. He looks to have the size/speed/skill combination that you usually see from a first round RB. I want to see a little more quickness and agility before I climb aboard the bandwagon, but I think he looks like the top RB available for FF purposes. I would consider him in the middle rounds of your draft.

Things start to get hazy quickly after the top two. Clemson RB CJ Spiller is a dynamic talent whose playing style probably won't fit every NFL offense. In the right system, he could be a Chris Johnson type. He might be better suited to a specialist role though. Oregon RB LaGarrette Blount and Cal RB Jahvid Best are high on most draft lists. I think they're both a little bit overrated, but worth a gamble in the 100-150 range of your draft if you're looking for a high risk/high upside RB. I have been touting USC RB Stafon Johnson as an underrated pro prospect for over a year now. He's much like Matt Forte: great at nothing, but pretty good at everything. He's a top 3 RB on my early 2010 board and a good value in the mid-late rounds.

Some people think Illinois WR Arrelious Benn is better than Bryant. I'm not buying it yet. Based on what I've seen so far, I think he's overrated. The same is true for USC WR Damian Williams and LSU WR Brandon LaFell. I don't believe either player is worthy of his current draft hype. I prefer Cincinnati WR Mardy Gilyard and Georgia Tech WR Demaryius Thomas. Both would be good gambles for you in the 120-150 range of your draft.

Oklahoma TE Jermaine Gresham might be the most overrated prospect in the country. He's a big, lumbering straight line speed guy whose game doesn't look like it will translate to the NFL. One sleeper TE to watch for is USC's Anthony McCoy. He's built like a brick ####house and offers the kind of two way potential that NFL teams covet. I think he might have a future as an NFL starter, though he might not be a good enough receiver to warrant a lot of excitement in FF leagues.

At QB you've got Sam Bradford, Jevan Snead, and Colt McCoy leading the way. I generally don't advocate using rookie picks on QBs because they're so risky and they take so long to develop, but Bradford has shown signs of being special and Snead could slip through the cracks in your draft, falling into the late rounds where he'd be a good option.

Beyond those guys, there's bound to be a handful of great prospects who emerge from relative obscurity ala Rashard Mendenhall, Shonn Greene, Chris Johnson, and Hakeem Nicks. Sitting here today, I can't tell you who those prospects will be.

So basically I think Dwyer and Bryant are probably the only two identifiable "premium" prospects at this point in time, but because everyone else knows about them, they aren't going to fall very far in your draft. As is always the case, the best value is going to come from the players who have comparable talent without the notoriety and hype. If I were you, I would probably let my leaguemates reach for the big names and wait until the late rounds to take shots on some of the lesser known players who offer similar upside.

 

[jek187]

I try not to go too overboard with my "instincts" on the blog rankings ... or at least I try to reel them in a bit. I would take more chances with my own teams than I would with public rankings.If I was drafting right now, the rookies would probably look like this:1. Moreno2. Debate b/w Harvin & Wells4. Crabtree5. D.Brown6. S.Greene

Very interesting, and I can understand why you reel the instincts. Are there other players you've held yourself in check for, publicly? I'm trying to guess from your writings who else they'd be, Ryan higher than top 5? Fitz maybe in a tier by himself? LDT lower than RB23? I know your leaguemates probably read this thread, so certainly respect you not answering here. However, should you not have any compunctions against speaking freely here, I'd love to hear some real "crazy talk". Harvin #2 rookie? Great! Tell me more.

It really has nothing to do with leaguemates seeing it. I've come to grips with that. I just think it's borderline irresponsible to put out public rankings that push expert opinion, scouting, trends, mathematical analysis and collected wisdom to the side in favor of a gut feeling on my part. It's more of a delicate balance thing. It's admittedly more art than science, but I'm not willing to let the art smother the science.And, frankly, I don't really want the emails and comments barrage that would come with going out on too many limbs. I don't mind going out on a limb when I have a very strong opinion on a player, but there are plenty of players where we're all just guessing at how they're going to perform -- especially the rookies. The available information/knowledge gap is just too large.But to answer your request about players where I have no compunctions about speaking freely, here are the guys that I could easily rank higher -- though I know a couple of them are about as high as I can go: Matt Ryan, Big Ben, Trent Edwards, Sage Rosenfels, Michael Vick, Shaun Hill, Dennis DixonMJD, Chris Johnson, S-Jax, Frank Gore, Knowshon Moreno, Ronnie Brown, Jonathan Stewart, Pierre Thomas, Arian Foster, Jamall LeeSteve Smith, V-Jax, Lee Evans, Eddie Royal, Percy Harvin, Josh Morgan, Justin Gage, Jarrett Dillard, Steve Johnson, Chris Henry, Matt Jones, Sammie StroughterKellen Winslow, Dustin Keller, Jared Cook, Martellus Bennett, Randy McMichael, Cornelius IngramHere are the guys I'd drop even farther than I have themhilip Rivers, Tony Romo, Jay Cutler (a/k/a p_ssy), Eli, Matt Cassel, JaMarcus Russell, Daunte CulpepperClinton Portis, MBIII, Steve Slaton, Marshawn Lynch, Reggie Bush, Thomas Jones, Joseph Addai, Willie Parker, LeSean McCoy, Jerious Norwood, Leon Washington, Jerome HarrisonMarques Colston, Brandon Marshall, Braylon Edwards, Chad Ochocinco, DeSean Jackson, Antonio Bryant, Laveranues Coles, Brian Robiskie, Kevin Walter, Steve Smith (NYG)Dallas Clark, John Carlson, Jeremy Shockey, Heath Miller, Bo Scaife

Pure awesome, tyvm F&L.

 

[BradtheAg]

fantastic info EBF, thanks a ton. that is exactly the kind of input i was hoping for. truly excellent stuff.

 

[mcintyre1]

Just out of curiosity, what do you not like about DeSean Jackson that you would drop him farther in your "gut" rankings? By all accounts he has a starting job locked up on one of the better passing teams in the league.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Just out of curiosity, what do you not like about DeSean Jackson that you would drop him farther in your "gut" rankings? By all accounts he has a starting job locked up on one of the better passing teams in the league.

I liked DeSean Jackson a lot going into last season, but I think people are overrating his fantasy potential because his rookie numbers were up early last season with Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown sidelined. He had his three best yardage games when Curtis was out and caught just two TD passes all year.I like Jackson's playmaking ability, but does he disappear in the redzone? I think Jeremy Maclin has a higher ceiling in Philly's offense.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I have an offer for:I trade Rivers and get EdwardsI trade Westbrook and get ForteI trade Ocho and Holt and get R. WilliamsHe wins on QB big.I win on RB big.Push on WR...Also, I gain 150 dollars in a 1,000 dollar salary cap league. I like it for me, but am scared of trading Rivers. What do you think?

Need to know the rest of your roster, league scoring/rules, first names to give a decent opinion.

 

[thehornet]

I have an offer for:I trade Rivers and get EdwardsI trade Westbrook and get ForteI trade Ocho and Holt and get R. WilliamsHe wins on QB big.I win on RB big.Push on WR...Also, I gain 150 dollars in a 1,000 dollar salary cap league. I like it for me, but am scared of trading Rivers. What do you think?

Need to know the rest of your roster, league scoring/rules, first names to give a decent opinion.

ehhh, he backed out of it. sorry for wasting your time.

you are lucky he did. You were getting ripped.

 

[stevegamer]

Ok, I have another tough one. I am torn on this...I am in a start 2 QB league with 1 RB starter and 1 WR starter and 4 flex players1,000 dollar salary cap leagueHere is the roster:Available Budget 291Philip Rivers QB 62Jeff Garcia QB 6Chad Henne QB 5Ahmad Bradshaw RB 6Maurice Jones-Drew RB 95Laurence Maroney RB 5Brian Westbrook RB 191Tashard Choice RB 7Chad Johnson WR 85Jordy Nelson WR 5Steve Smith(car) WR 151Josh Morgan WR 5Torry Holt WR 15Vincent Jackson WR 30Dustin Keller TE 5Garrett Hartley K 5Stephen Cooper LB 5Jon Beason LB 8Jared Allen DL 13Richard Marshall DB 5Trade would be:Rivers $62 for Ben Rothlisberger $62 = money break evenWestbrook $191 for Kevin Smith $90 = gain $100 but lose some points this year while gaining longterm?Ocho Cinco $85 for Reggie Wayne $153 = lose $68 but gain a top 5 WR and a steadier player?So this year the trade may hurt me in PPG scored based solely on the players. But, it gives me an extra $40 in cap space...It hinges on Kevin Smith. Thoughts on Kevin Smith? Thoughts on the trade?

I like it for the value you get, but you really need another QB on the roster.

 

[Burning Sensation]

This is the best thread in FBG history. I hope it isnt ruined by ACF questions.

 

[benm3218]

This is the best thread in FBG history. I hope it isnt ruined by ACF questions.

point taken. pm would be better for sure.

 

[mcintyre1]

I'm curious about your thoughts on Pat White. I'm a big fan of players that produced in college, and there is no doubt that White produced. I don't know if he's future QB1 material, but I think he could be solid QB2 eventually, especially if he gets good numbers on the ground. The reports of accuracy problems in mini-camp are disconcerting though.

 

[Burning Sensation]

I'm curious about your thoughts on Pat White. I'm a big fan of players that produced in college, and there is no doubt that White produced. I don't know if he's future QB1 material, but I think he could be solid QB2 eventually, especially if he gets good numbers on the ground. The reports of accuracy problems in mini-camp are disconcerting though.

Im not sure how much value White will have as a QB. I really like him if he gets listed as a WR, and plays QB in the Wildcat while also being used as a slot WR and get the occasional carry/reverse.A statline of:5/7, 60 yards passing5 carries for 25 yards3 receptions for 35 yardsThrow in a TD with those numbers and you have a valuable #2 WR. As a QB those numbers probably arent worth a #3 QB.I just dont see him ever being a full time QB.

 

[Tau837]

This is the best thread in FBG history. I hope it isnt ruined by ACF questions.

 

[mcintyre1]

I'm curious about your thoughts on Pat White. I'm a big fan of players that produced in college, and there is no doubt that White produced. I don't know if he's future QB1 material, but I think he could be solid QB2 eventually, especially if he gets good numbers on the ground. The reports of accuracy problems in mini-camp are disconcerting though.

Im not sure how much value White will have as a QB. I really like him if he gets listed as a WR, and plays QB in the Wildcat while also being used as a slot WR and get the occasional carry/reverse.A statline of:5/7, 60 yards passing5 carries for 25 yards3 receptions for 35 yardsThrow in a TD with those numbers and you have a valuable #2 WR. As a QB those numbers probably arent worth a #3 QB.I just dont see him ever being a full time QB.

I wish he'd get listed as a non-QB as well, honestly. That would be where his real value would lie. Even if he isn't, though, a stat line of 1500 yards passing, 10 TDs, and 600 yards rushing with 5 TDs would make him a very solid backup QB. I could see a system like that evolving, but it would certainly be a system we haven't seen before.

 

[Hitchcock Presents]

Hello board. First time poster.

FL - I'm in my first dynasty league and I noticed I own a bunch of players that you'd rank lower if you could. Romo, Slaton, etc.

So this is to anyone really. How am I looking through 19 rounds?

QB - Tony Romo (5), Matt Hassleback (13)

RB - Steve Slaton (1), Kevin Smith (2), Marion Barber (3), Jerius Norwood (9), Andre Brown (11), Chester Taylor (14), Ladell Betts (17), Javon Ringer (19)

WR - Brandon Marshall (4), TJ Houshmandzadeh (6), Jeremy Maclin (8), Laveranues Coles (12), Jordy Nelson (15), Juaquin Iglesias (16)

TE - Tony Gonzalez (7), John Carlson (10)

D/ST - Philadelphia (18)

EDIT - Am I in the wrong thread? Sorry in advance.

If that is the case, what does everyone think about Ryan Torain moving forward. Is there a chance he catches on with another team if Denver cuts him? I'm not sure what to think with all the running backs in Denver.

 

[theholdout123]

I have the #1 pick in my initial dynasty league draft and the guy at #4 wants to move up is picks 1 and 49 for 4 and 28 a fair offer? or do u think it favors one side?

Nah, I don't think that's good value.Why do you want to move out of #1? Are you targeting somebody at #4?

nope he just wants to get peterson and i was wondering if you thought it was good value, thanks

 

[Burning Sensation]

I'm curious about your thoughts on Pat White. I'm a big fan of players that produced in college, and there is no doubt that White produced. I don't know if he's future QB1 material, but I think he could be solid QB2 eventually, especially if he gets good numbers on the ground. The reports of accuracy problems in mini-camp are disconcerting though.

Im not sure how much value White will have as a QB. I really like him if he gets listed as a WR, and plays QB in the Wildcat while also being used as a slot WR and get the occasional carry/reverse.A statline of:5/7, 60 yards passing5 carries for 25 yards3 receptions for 35 yardsThrow in a TD with those numbers and you have a valuable #2 WR. As a QB those numbers probably arent worth a #3 QB.I just dont see him ever being a full time QB.

I wish he'd get listed as a non-QB as well, honestly. That would be where his real value would lie. Even if he isn't, though, a stat line of 1500 yards passing, 10 TDs, and 600 yards rushing with 5 TDs would make him a very solid backup QB. I could see a system like that evolving, but it would certainly be a system we haven't seen before.

Not sure how long he would be a starting NFL QB while putting up those kind of numbers. I do suppose its possible he is good enough to be a starting QB in the NFL, i just dont see it.

 

[benm3218]

I was just looking through the RB rankings... I know its real hard for sports writers this time of year, so they write great stuff about guys and nothing ever happens... (which might explain the articles glowing about Choice I read) But, looking at Tashard Choice it made me think he might deserve to be higher than the likes of Jerious Norwood and Willis McGahee.

Norwood doesn't seem to me like the type of player that would ever shoulder a full time role. Willis McGahee is on a committee and he isn't young and he does get hurt...

Choice really performed well versus solid defenses last year, and I keep reading stuff about how he might get 3 or 4 series a game limiting Felix touches to 10 or so. And, if Barber gets injured (and he runs like a beast) then Choice will fill his role with Felix being the change of pace back.

I just seem to see a high ceiling for Choice. Now, somebody set me straight.

 

[Burning Sensation]

I was just looking through the RB rankings... I know its real hard for sports writers this time of year, so they write great stuff about guys and nothing ever happens... (which might explain the articles glowing about Choice I read) But, looking at Tashard Choice it made me think he might deserve to be higher than the likes of Jerious Norwood and Willis McGahee.Norwood doesn't seem to me like the type of player that would ever shoulder a full time role. Willis McGahee is on a committee and he isn't young and he does get hurt...Choice really performed well versus solid defenses last year, and I keep reading stuff about how he might get 3 or 4 series a game limiting Felix touches to 10 or so. And, if Barber gets injured (and he runs like a beast) then Choice will fill his role with Felix being the change of pace back.I just seem to see a high ceiling for Choice. Now, somebody set me straight.

I still like Norwood a bit better, however, i agree that Choice should be higher than Mcgahee. Willis is part of a three headed comitee like Choice, but one of them is on the downslide of their career, and the other on the upswing. It seems pretty obvious that Mcgahee will never help anyone win a Championship, and while unlikely for Choice to do so, there is still a chance he can sometime in the future.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I was just looking through the RB rankings... I know its real hard for sports writers this time of year, so they write great stuff about guys and nothing ever happens... (which might explain the articles glowing about Choice I read) But, looking at Tashard Choice it made me think he might deserve to be higher than the likes of Jerious Norwood and Willis McGahee.Norwood doesn't seem to me like the type of player that would ever shoulder a full time role. Willis McGahee is on a committee and he isn't young and he does get hurt...Choice really performed well versus solid defenses last year, and I keep reading stuff about how he might get 3 or 4 series a game limiting Felix touches to 10 or so. And, if Barber gets injured (and he runs like a beast) then Choice will fill his role with Felix being the change of pace back.I just seem to see a high ceiling for Choice. Now, somebody set me straight.

Yeah, I agree. Choice was already ear-marked for a bump after he was reportedly the MVP of the first few days of Cowboys camp. I was never a big McGahee fan, but I'm not quite ready to bury him yet. He's not quite 28-years-old, and nothing will surprise me in that Ravens backfield this year.Edit to add: I've been arguing for 3 years that Norwood isn't a great fantasy bet because of his usage. I gave him a recent bump b/c he's a free agent after the season and should see a few extra touches this year, but I still don't see him as a primary back on any team in the NFL.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I'm curious about your thoughts on Pat White. I'm a big fan of players that produced in college, and there is no doubt that White produced. I don't know if he's future QB1 material, but I think he could be solid QB2 eventually, especially if he gets good numbers on the ground. The reports of accuracy problems in mini-camp are disconcerting though.

Im not sure how much value White will have as a QB. I really like him if he gets listed as a WR, and plays QB in the Wildcat while also being used as a slot WR and get the occasional carry/reverse.A statline of:5/7, 60 yards passing5 carries for 25 yards3 receptions for 35 yardsThrow in a TD with those numbers and you have a valuable #2 WR. As a QB those numbers probably arent worth a #3 QB.I just dont see him ever being a full time QB.

That's pretty much how I see it. I think he could have some considerable fantasy value down the road if he was in line to take over as the quarterback. Instead, the Dolphins clearly have Pennington as the present, Henne as the future, and White as some part-time gimmick-master. I just don't see any fantasy light at the end of the tunnel.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Hello board. First time poster.FL - I'm in my first dynasty league and I noticed I own a bunch of players that you'd rank lower if you could. Romo, Slaton, etc. So this is to anyone really. How am I looking through 19 rounds? QB - Tony Romo (5), Matt Hassleback (13)RB - Steve Slaton (1), Kevin Smith (2), Marion Barber (3), Jerius Norwood (9), Andre Brown (11), Chester Taylor (14), Ladell Betts (17), Javon Ringer (19)WR - Brandon Marshall (4), TJ Houshmandzadeh (6), Jeremy Maclin (8), Laveranues Coles (12), Jordy Nelson (15), Juaquin Iglesias (16)TE - Tony Gonzalez (7), John Carlson (10)D/ST - Philadelphia (18)EDIT - Am I in the wrong thread? Sorry in advance.If that is the case, what does everyone think about Ryan Torain moving forward. Is there a chance he catches on with another team if Denver cuts him? I'm not sure what to think with all the running backs in Denver.

Welcome, Hitchcock Presents. I guess you already know how I feel about your team since the majority of your players are on the list of guys I would rank lower if I was going by my instincts. The problem with your roster in Dynasty leagues, as I see it, is that far too many of players have fleeting value. I don't count a single player -- with the possible exception of Romo -- that I would want to build my roster around. Sorry for the harsh assessment. Just my

 

[citsalp]

Norwood doesn't seem to me like the type of player that would ever shoulder a full time role. Willis McGahee is on a committee and he isn't young and he does get hurt...

Choice really performed well versus solid defenses last year, and I keep reading stuff about how he might get 3 or 4 series a game limiting Felix touches to 10 or so. And, if Barber gets injured (and he runs like a beast) then Choice will fill his role with Felix being the change of pace back.

I just seem to see a high ceiling for Choice. Now, somebody set me straight.

Yeah, I agree. Choice was already ear-marked for a bump after he was reportedly the MVP of the first few days of Cowboys camp.

I was never a big McGahee fan, but I'm not quite ready to bury him yet. He's not quite 28-years-old, and nothing will surprise me in that Ravens backfield this year.

Why is Peerman not mentioned, regarding the Ravens...His measurables are off the wall, and seems like a student of the game, what part of his game am I missing?

Great thread thanks for sharing...learned alot!

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Why is Peerman not mentioned, regarding the Ravens...His measurables are off the wall, and seems like a student of the game, what part of his game am I missing?Great thread thanks for sharing...learned alot!

Thanks, citsalp.I like Peerman because of his speed and work ethic, but let's be honest about what he is: a roster stash.He's not going to be anything more than a special teamer as a rookie, and that's if he even makes the final roster -- which is no guarantee for the sixth-round pick. Jalen Parmele, one of the guys he's competing against for a roster spot, also had a very high speed score last year.I don't typically rank late-round picks very highly before training camp/preseason action, if at all. I'm reading the local rags and national media every day, and I haven't come across anything yet on Peerman that has made me stand up and take notice.

 

[mcintyre1]

I'm curious about your thoughts on Pat White. I'm a big fan of players that produced in college, and there is no doubt that White produced. I don't know if he's future QB1 material, but I think he could be solid QB2 eventually, especially if he gets good numbers on the ground. The reports of accuracy problems in mini-camp are disconcerting though.

Im not sure how much value White will have as a QB. I really like him if he gets listed as a WR, and plays QB in the Wildcat while also being used as a slot WR and get the occasional carry/reverse.A statline of:5/7, 60 yards passing5 carries for 25 yards3 receptions for 35 yardsThrow in a TD with those numbers and you have a valuable #2 WR. As a QB those numbers probably arent worth a #3 QB.I just dont see him ever being a full time QB.

I wish he'd get listed as a non-QB as well, honestly. That would be where his real value would lie. Even if he isn't, though, a stat line of 1500 yards passing, 10 TDs, and 600 yards rushing with 5 TDs would make him a very solid backup QB. I could see a system like that evolving, but it would certainly be a system we haven't seen before.

Not sure how long he would be a starting NFL QB while putting up those kind of numbers. I do suppose its possible he is good enough to be a starting QB in the NFL, i just dont see it.

I certainly agree he wouldn't be starting with those numbers, but I wasn't clear in that I wasn't envisioning him as a starter. Those numbers were what I was guessing if he remained as purely a Wildcat player with all other snaps going to Henne/Pennington.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

If that is the case, what does everyone think about Ryan Torain moving forward. Is there a chance he catches on with another team if Denver cuts him? I'm not sure what to think with all the running backs in Denver.

I think Torain is an extreme long-shot for fantasy value. There's always a chance he catches on with another team, but nobody liked him as much as Shanahan did. And he won't be given more than a No. 3 role to start. His best chance for Dynasty value was last season under Shanny -- it's just unfortunate that he went down in the same game where he got his best chance at NFL stardom.