I don't know how people can't see special talent when they watch Arian Foster. Maybe not Peterson/CJ3/MJD special, but the kid is a very good talent. I took the wait and see approach with him, but at this point, I've waited, I've seen, and I'm ready to commit. He's the guy in Houston long-term.
Foster wants big money and the Texans won't pay it. They trade him to the Seahawks. Still a special talent?Right now, Foster is a top 5-7 pick in startups next year. Trade him to the Seahawks and he is a late 2nd - 3rd round guy.
ADP is a top 2 start up pick. Trade him to the Seahawks and he is a top 2 start up pick. That is special talent.
Arian Foster will be every bit as special of a talent whether he plays for Houston, Seattle, or the Saskatchewan Roughriders. Talent is independent of situation. His production will decrease, but his talent will not.You're right that Adrian Peterson is such a sublime talent that he'd remain a stud no matter where he was, and that Arian Foster is not at that level. That's why Adrian is a tier 1 back with a value score of 98 while Arian is a tier 2 back with a value score of 82. There's a huge gap between those two players. I'm not comparing Foster to Peterson, though... I'm comparing him to guys like
Ryan Mathews,
Beanie Wells, or Lesean McCoy. Foster is every bit as talented as those guys, and he's in a better situation, to boot. The result is that he gets ranked above those guys. I think Foster is as talented as Mendenhall, so Foster gets ranked near Mendenhall (a bit below because Mendenhall is a slightly more secure investment, but all in all pretty comparable- I've got Foster at value 82 and Mendy at value 84).
Arian Foster is not a top 5 talent. That's why Arian Foster doesn't have a top-5 ranking. I do think he's a top 12 talent, though, which is a lot more than most people are giving him credit for. He's not
Matt Forte or
Joseph Addai here- a mediocre-to-below-average RB whose value is wholly and completely derived from his situation, a guy who is basically just filling in until his team goes about securing a more adequate replacement. He's better than that.