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Flynn's worst pass of the game might have been the penalty reversed interception to Merriweather. He showed pretty good poise and put the ball where the receivers could catch it. He also had some heady plays in which he the ball out of bounds or into the dirt and out of trouble. GB had to be happy with what they saw from this kid.
From a fantasy standpoint, I wonder if Orton's highly guaranteed contract makes him a lot less valuable now. He has $5.5 mil of 2011 money guaranteed with a total salary of $8.8. $3.3 is more than reasonable for a backup QB, so they don't gain anything by cutting him. Obviously they gain a lot by trading him, and there could be a market (Minn, Ari, Sea). However, if the CBA stuff isn't resolved early, trading is unlikely. So Orton could be dead weight for a year. His fantasy value is a lot higher if "on the outs" includes a ticket out.
Thanks for the contract info. I was going to ask if anyone knew it offhand. That seems like a big bullet for denver to bite if they trade him and he may need to play some - course Denver should have a longer view than 2011 to right the ship, so letting Tebow play may be the best choice. I know if I was another team like Minnesota, SF, Mia - I would take a good look at Orton before most of the other choices out there via trade/free agency.
Im not suggesting you are a bandwagoner at all. I know you have been equally high on Rice through thick and thin. I just dont understand why you would repeat it again after Sundays game as if it were some sort of proof that you were right. I dont think any of us who suggested he isnt a top 5 dynasty RB thought he was incapable of a big game. Im guessing that if he had a bad game Sunday that would not be proof that i was right in suggesting he isnt a top 5 dynasty back.SSOG said:"Too talented" means "possessing such an overabundance of talent that...". Ray Rice is "too talented" to struggle for long. He has such an overabundance of talent that a string of bad games should not be taken as a positive predictor of the future.Is Rice more talented than the players producing more than him? Yes. Is he more talented than Hillis? Yes. More talented that Turner? Yes. More talented than McCoy or Moreno? Yes and hell yes. WHY is he more talented? I don't know, a fluke of genetics? HOW is he more talented? That's a good question. I don't really know, exactly, and I'm not going to pretend to. If you've read "Blink" by Malcolm Gladwell, you're familiar with a study on how humans are capable of making very accurate intuitive leaps utilizing their subconscious, but if they try to explain those leaps in terms their conscious understands, they lose all of the insight that they'd gained. In other words, if you showed me film of two players and said "which is better?", I'd be able to identify the better player at a fantastic clip. If you instead showed me film of two players and then gave me a scorecard and asked me to grade those players on 10 points (hip fluidity, burst, acceleration, vision, balance, etc) and then use those scorecards to determine which player was better, I'd essentially only have a 50% chance of identifying the better player.
I think too much emphasis is based on conscious reasoning. The subconscious is much, much better at processing and weighting dozens of variables at once to reach a unified evaluation. In other words, while I may not be able to express the reasons for my opinion nearly as well as someone like Waldaman or EBF, I still stand fully behind my opinion. I've watched Ray Rice, Peyton Hillis, and Knowshon Moreno... and Rice is far and away the best player of the three.
As for what MJD's production has to do with Rice... MJD and Rice were essentially the #3 and #4 players in dynasty coming into this year. MJD performed like an average RB2, everyone wrote him off, and then he exploded and reminded people how silly they were for writing him off. Ray Rice has performed like an average RB2, and people are writing him off. It's true that MJD has a longer history of production, but at the same time, it's not particularly relevant because people had seen enough from Rice after last year to judge him equivalent to MJD despite his shorter history of production. The point I'm getting at is that it's stupid to substantially drop someone you thought was a top 5 RB based solely on good-but-not-great production.
You think I'm a bandwagoner who is only saying good things about Rice because he just had a monster game? I've been saying good things about Ray Rice every single week, when I've submitted my dynasty ranking updates. Rice has never been ranked lower than 4th in my rankings. I'm just saying, this week's game is the perfect example of why Ray Rice remains in my top 4 despite lackluster production.
I love it, Rice has a big game and then everyone says, "see, i told you Rice was elite". I never doubted Rice was a talented player when i brought his name up in this thread. I simply stated he might not be as good as his last years numbers suggested, and he doesnt belong in the top tier. I still think he is a top 10 RB(in talent and dynasty rankings), but he is averaging 4 yards per carry and hasnt scored more than 7 TD's in a season. He is the #12 RB in my dynasty leagues(non-ppr), and has needed 325 touches to get there. That wouldnt be a problem except i doubt he sees 350+ touches every year.
I try to grab great backup players in hopes that they somehow end up starting due to a trade or injury.
Ben Tate and Montario Hardesty come to mind. I know that Foster and Hillis have had great seasons, and seem to have a firm grip on the starting job, but neither player can be considered an elite talent. Tate and Hardesty might be longshots to start next year, but both were 2nd round picks last year who should get a chance to start at some point, and only an injury away from putting up top 10 RB numbers.
Donnie Avery may be on the waiver wire in some leagues and should work well as a deep threat for Sam Bradford next season.Marc Bulger could end up starting in Arizona next season. Whisenhutt wanted the front office to sign him, but they were already paying Anderson. Bulger could be a decent spot starter with Arizona's weapons, obviosly not a long term option though.Charlie Whitehurst likely gets the starting gig in Seattle next year. Hasselbeck was pulled last week and is looking older by the day.Joe McKnight hasn't looked good so far but could be the 3rd down / CoP back next season if the Jets don't bring LT2 back. Danny Ware has looked good in preseason and the Gianst may cut Jacobs or not resign Bradshaw (not likely). Ware should then become the second back to either Jacobs or Bradshaw in the Giants RBBC.Emmanuel Sanders is starting to get targets in Pittsburgh and Ward is really aging quick.Brad Smith has shown skills mostly as a return man and wildcat QB, but he's laso a decent WR. The Jets will prioritize re-signing Holmes and/or Edwards and still have Cotchery so Smith could sign somewhere that he'll have an even bigger role.Bradon Tate hasn't yet seized the Moss role in New Engalnd but has show flashes and will be entering his third year. A big leap in production is not out of the question.
Donnie Avery is a good one. Its really too bad he got hurt in the preseason, he and Bradford really looked in sync. In 2009, QB accuracy cost Avery a top 20 WR finish. That problem seemed to be gone with Bradfrod in St Louis. Considering how good Clayton did early in the season, its scary to think what Avery might have done. Assuming Avery is 100% by the start of the 2011 season, he is going to be a top 15-20 WR by seasons end.
Mendenhall looked pretty good against the Jets this past weekend. Forte not so much last night. I just don't see the value of Forte that everyone speaks of. If he doesn't catch four or five passes you will basically get nothing out of him. Non-ppr he has close to no value and I would think many dynasty leagues are not ppr.
Steedthere will be so many weapons being used in the St. Louis offense that no one individual player will stand out. Look at what the multitude of players has done to Steven Jackson. He went from being a major contributor to not even hearing his name on Sundays anymore. He is rarely talked about anymore as well. He had a good game this past weekend but overall he has been middle of the pack this season. He usually catches a ton of passes too so you would think Bradford would check it off to him alot but it hasn't happened. I wouldn't trust anyone in St. Louis except Bradford. He will probably produce like Brady one day.
Even after the ton of points he put up this year Orton is a sleeper again for next season. He's a great guy to grab late in redrafts and a player to acquire in dynasty leagues (for cheap of course) because he will most likely end up in a place like Minnesota or Arizona if he's traded and will be on a team with a bad defense that will have to throw the ball all day. He carried me all season and I'll most likely hold on to him during the offseason because of it.
Mendenahll scored and Forte didnt, other than that they had similar games.Mendenhall 17 carries for 100 yards(that includes the phantom yard he was given)Forte 17 carries for 92 yards and 1 reception for 6. Forte doesnt need to catch 4,5 passes to have a good game. He has only caught more than 3 passes 3 times this season, and is still ranked 13th in non-ppr leagues. Maybe the 13th ranked RB is "close to no value" in your leagues, but thats low end RB1, high end RB2 in my leagues, making him very valuable.
Similar games? Maybe. But not similar opponents or a 20 point lead.
One scored and one didnt????? Maybe not in your leagues but that can be the difference between making it to the championship or going home empty handed.
The reason there has been a multitude of players used is because injuries. Look at what Clayton was doing before he first got hurt. Steven Jackson is the 14th ranked RB this year, just because he is not talked about as much doesnt mean he isnt a major contributor. Plus, Jackson already has 325 receiving yards, the 3rd highest total of his career.
You said Mendenhall looked pretty good against the Jets and Forte didnt look good against the Vikings. Would Forte had looked that much better if he punched in a 1 yard TD? Either way, i never said Forte was better, just Mendenhall is no more talented than Forte. On the season, Forte is averaging .3 yards per carry more and almost double Mendehalls yard per reception. They are ranked 12th and 13th in NON-PPR leagues. Just because Mendenhall scored a TD this week and Forte didnt isnt going to change my mind.
I think he could be pretty good. I was lukewarm on his prospects entering the season, but he has looked solid every time I have seen him play. He runs some pretty fluid routes and catches the ball cleanly. There's also the fact that one of Pitt's top personnel people (I think it was their GM) said during training camp that Sanders is the best rookie WR they've ever had. That's a pretty nice compliment, even if it's hyperbole. I don't think Sanders is destined for superstardom, but he seems capable of winning a starting job and Ben is good enough to inflate his stats. As for other buy low targets, I would look at some of the top prospects who have fallen out of fashion with FF owners. Guys like Michael Crabtree, Demaryius Thomas, CJ Spiller, Ryan Mathews, Shonn Greene, Jahvid Best, and Beanie Wells could still make an impact even though their price tags have probably dropped in a lot of leagues. I especially like Thomas. He has flashed Pro Bowl skills, he just needs to stay healthy and focused. The constant nagging injuries have been disappointing, but that might be the only reason why he hasn't jumped into "untouchable" status yet.
I'll grant you that the 20 pt. lead is dissimilar.However, the Vikings have been a good run defense for a few seasons now and even in this disappointing season are still 8th best against the run giving up only 101.5 yds/game, while the NYJets are 4th best giving up only 92.7 yds/game. Therefore yes there are similarities in the opponents when it comes to running the football against them. However, when you are up big the other team knows you are going to run the football and try to shorten the football game, giving further advantage to the run defense of the Vikings...I know this won't be well received, but I would say that while Mendenhall is going to be valued much more highly, Forte actually gives you similar production for a fraction of the price...
Jets are ranked 4th against the run, the Vikings are ranked 8th. Although the Jets are better, i would say thats similar. What does a 20 point lead have to do with anything?
dynastyrankings.netDLF is great, but slow. This site has a lot more to offer during the season, and a lot more opinions, just based on size.
They may have ended with similar games, but they could not have looked different in producing them. I am not sure if you watched both Mendenhall and Forte play this weekend, but your comment here suggests that you didn't. Mendenhall could not have looked better- explosive, shifty, quick, and fast. Forte could not have looked more pedestrian. It was very apparent he was benefiting greatly from the very slick field. I think this is a very silly argument- Mendenhall isn't exactly the greatest thing since sliced bread, but he has looked like a superior player to Forte very step of the way since he has taken over the starting job. Also, this type of season has the feel of being Forte's ceiling. The long runs are freak outliers for him in my opinion, he has been awful running the ball in too many games, and in most every game where he hasn't had a long touchdown, he has been extremely pedestrian overall. Add on to that his incredibly horrible goal line play (really the team's goal line play as a whole has been bad, but Forte very much factors into that) and all signs point downwards to me. Mendenhall's season, on the other hand, has the feel of being the norm for him over the course of his prime- it hasn't been inflated by an abundance of long touchdowns, he hasn't had an above average amount of touchdown opportunities to inflate his stats, and he is already without 3rd down and short yardage work (except at the goal line). Based on this, Mendnehall is a much more valuable fantasy commodity than Forte in my eyes.
Carson Palmer ahead of Sam Bradford, Jamaal Charles #9 Rb, Addai ahead of Moreno, Peyton Hillis #33RB. I dont even like Vick, but #11 QB? That was just a quick glance, i had to stop reading.I dont want to be mean, but that site is a joke. Im afraid to look at their WR rankings.
Slow? I have no idea what you mean by slow unless you're saying they release content slowly. That has changed though as they offer 200% more content than they did this time last year and revamped the whole site. They also have about 350 to 400 dynasty topics in the forums. Big changes since last year. Coop, don't you have some rankings?
No need to bash a site based on the rankings they had up before the season even started. Before this season, no one knew what Bradford would do. So many qb's come and go it's hard to know.
No offense taken. Your right, you should be careful who you take fantasy advice from, and i hope for you sake that site you posted gives better advice than rankings.Yes, i do know the difference when a team is up by 20, it means the starting RB is likely to lose alot of carries to the backup RB.
I will be doing something like Go Deep this off season. I am not tech-savvy enough to go all out like SSOG. By slow, I am referring to the forum. Compared to the shark pool, it is baron. The regulars there are all informed and offer valuable insight, however.
It says their rankings were updated on 12/12/2010. I dont know about the rest of their site, but their rankings are bad. Of course thats my opinion, im sure some think mine are bad as well.
Look at this!
Yeah that is kind of "ratarded". I don't agree but I know they put more value in the current season than most dynasty sites. It all depends on the player for me. A nice mix of young and veteran.
Yeah I don't know what's up with that. Weird. Someone is stoned. That's why you don't just go by what people say. Mix in your own rankings as well but I won't defend them for that mistake.
30. Brandon Jackson GBP
31. Ronnie Brown MIA
32. LaDainian Tomlinson NYJ
33. Peyton Hillis CLE
Do they think Carson Palmer is going to get a bionic arm in the offseason or that Sam Bradford having one of the best rookie seasons for a QB is a fluke?
We know it's not all about the rankings. Rankings are for the lazy bunch because you know most of us go way beyond the rankings. It takes a ton more than that to be consistent and successful. And maybe I shouldn't bash them. I drafted Arian Foster in almost every league this season and everyone called me an idiot so maybe they just feel a certain way about Palmer or Hillis or Hardesty and that's their opinion. To say their rankings are way off is wrong without finding out why.
I agree with your take on both of those comparisons. I was very high on Hernandez at the beginning of the season - great receiving threat, Belichek loves guys that can specialize and do those things really well. But when I guy that's really talented is so inconsistent - not in his play, but in the # of snaps he's even on the field and how much his usage in based on the type of defense that week - those things remind me why it is so difficult to commit to a NE player in fantasy outside of Brady, Welker, or previously Moss. Everyone else is a real variable and it will be frustrating. I believe Gronkowski will be the more solid play because he will be on the field a lot more than Hernandez and was actually more highly graded coming out in the draft. Gronk could get 10 TDs a year and I would not be surprised now that Moss is out of town. Hernandez will be solid in PPR, but inconsistent - at least my take.I did the same thing and acquired Graham a little before all the big buzz started. I think Brees and the Saints WILL utilize a guy like Graham to the fullest. TEs are different than WRs, they are a little tougher to take away because most of the coverage is linebacker or safety-based. Graham is a freak athlete and is adjusting to the sport and the NFL very quickly from what I have seen. If he has the starting job going into the season next year, watch out, the buzz will be Finley-esque circa 2010. He is a huge stash for 2011 and beyond and the sky is the upside for match-up nightmares like Graham.
Youre right, knowing peoples reasoning for why they rank players where they do is more valuable to others than the rankings themselves. However, if someones rankings are that bad(in someones opinion), than the reasoning doesnt really matter. I cant imagine anyone making a case for Frank Gore being ranked higher than Jamaal Chalres or Tomlinson being higher than Hillis, or Palmer higher than Bradford, etc.Maybe i am spoiled by the dynasty info/rankings here at FBG, and particularly the people in this thread, but IMO those rankings are pretty bad by comparison.
I agree with a lot of your post except for Benn having a higher ceiling. In the beginning of the season, Mike Williams was getting it done by himself as the only option on that offense. Now Benn's getting it done but only because defenses are paying more attention to MWill. I'll always side with the guy that can do it by himself, much like Fitzy doing it without Boldin this year. And Fitz is outperforming Boldin with a much worse QB situation.Another similar parallel to the Fitz/Boldin example I just drew is that Arrelious Benn has a history of getting nicked up much like Boldin does.
Another thread at http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=576407 has some good Benn/Williams discussion of 'ceiling'. Some highlights (aka my posts in the thread on that subject) are below.
EthnicFury said:
EthnicFury said:
not at all. To give some context for any who didn't click through to the thread, that thread's OP was referencing an article saying Benn could be in line for a Nicks-like breakout next year. Williams presents an obstacle for Benn in achieving WR1 status similar to the one Smith provided. My point is that Williams's greater polish doesn't necessarily equate to better upside, and that his production this year doesn't (on its own) automatically relegate Benn to WR2 status long-term. While Williams is more talented than Smith North, that situation provides a good example of a similar situation nonetheless.
